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Better Understanding IOCG Mineralising Systems Through Systems Thinking Tim Craske, Geowisdom and Thinker.Events 1

Better Understanding IOCG Mineralising Systems Through ...€¦ · Better Understanding IOCG Mineralising Systems Through Systems Thinking Tim Craske, Geowisdom and Thinker.Events

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  • Better Understanding IOCG Mineralising SystemsThrough Systems Thinking

    Tim Craske, Geowisdom and Thinker.Events

    1

  • “Science is a way to not get fooled” Richard Feynman

    “The easiest person to fool is yourself…….”

    2

  • The Why – Why we need Systems Thinking

    3

    Feedback Loops Required

  • Recent Perceptions of Mineral SystemsBUT… without feedback none of these is a System Map

    4

    Each circle or matrix box or triangular field is a system and each of these has sub-systems

    Arrows indicate a time series of eventsOr mixing lines

    From Hagemann et al, 2016

  • Systems usually have multiple loops

    5

    • Makes for much more complex dynamics andless certainty of stability

    • For example…

    235U supply 235U fission Neutrons

    +

    +

    +

    _

  • What is a System?

    • The short answer is:

    A system is a dynamic and complex whole

    interacting as a structured functional unit

    6

  • 7

    Aggregation Reductionist science – tells

    you lots about the components

    SystemHolistic Thinking Required

    If you cut a car in half you

    Don’t get two small cars.

    AEGC February 2018

  • Important Systems Traps

    • Anchored by starting point that may not be relevant

    • Overweighting probability of what already know or heard recently

    • Only accept results that confirm their ideas

    • Judging a probability of an event by how it resembles typical case

    • Tendency to describe simple geometry whilst systems even with simple rules often develop fractal complexity

    8

  • Systems Thinking – Beware Simplistic Analytics

    • Analytical thinking can lead to incorrect analysis of cause and effect- some effects are inherent in the system, some are due to other parts of the system waning rather than a particular part growing

    • “Once we see the relationship between structure and behaviour we begin to understand how systems work” Donella Meadows

    - what makes them produce poor results or better results

    e.g. flu virus does not attack you, you set up the conditions for it toflourish within you

    9

  • Supercontinent Cycles, Ni-Cu-PGE & PGE Reef Deposits

    Significant deposits mostly form during

    later stages of amalgamation (A)

    andthe collisional peaks (Kenorland, Nuna, Rodinia, Pangea)

  • • “picking the best haystack”

    • Looking for evidence of process in the data patterns

    • Notice evidence for feedback

    Acutely Observe Patterns vs AnomaliesAnomaly = signature of focus

    • Fixation on anomalies can lead to bump hunting mentality

    • Example: Cloncurry mag-gravpost discovery Ernest Henry IOCG

    • “going straight for the needle”

    11

    Image source: Fathom Geophysics

    Pattern = signature of system process

  • Complex vs Complicated

    12Source: Eric Berlow TED

    “Simplicity often residesthe other side of Complex”

    AEGC February 2018

    A geology map is complex…………but not complicated to a trained geologist

  • 13

    Understanding is in the data

    But often understanding is NOT in the statistics(kriging, potential field inversions)Which are always ambiguous

    Knowledge is in the dynamics

    Which are derived form nonlinear analysis

    The results of which are sparse and unique

    Dr Bruce Hobbs Thinker Events workshop, 2019

  • Critical Thinking about Critical Processes5 CRITICAL PROCESSES From pmd*CRC

    1. Fertility

    2. Geodynamics

    3. Architecture

    4. Trap

    5. Modifiers

    14

  • Training for New Paradigms

    1. Systems and Critical Thinking….driving science based decisions

    2. Culture Building

    3. Collaboration for wealth

    4. Mentoring and Systems based management/leadership

    5. Innovation leadership and Change Agility

    X……STOP: KPIs, exploration, 12 hour FIFO/DIDO shifts, mindless data collection (= insecurity), dumping older worker and tacit skills mindless hard data destruction or loss, mindless cost cutting

  • Archetype 1: Water Stock in Bath Tub

    17

  • Archetype 1: Water Stock in Bath Tub

    • If sum of inflows exceeds sum of outflows level will rise

    • If sum of outflows exceeds sum of inflows level will fall

    • If sum of outflows equals sum of inflows, stock level will not change –it will be held in dynamic equilibrium at whatever level it happened to be when the two flows became equal

    • Stock can be increased by decreasing outflow as well as increasing inflow

    • Stocks allow flows to be independent, decoupled, dependable

    Stocks change slowly, even if rates flowing in or outchange suddenly. Stock act as delays in systems

    18

  • Archetype 2: Capital System that Makes $by Extracting Ore

    Adapted from Donella Meadows’ Oil Well model

    • Capital Depreciation is balancing loop (B)

    • Builds through investment of profits from mine, reinforcing loop (R)

    • More capital allows more resource extraction

    • Profit is income minus cost

    • Income is price of commodity times tonnes extracted

    • Cost is operating costs

    • Resource is finite (no inflow)

    19

  • How Big is a Mineralising System?• Mineral systems operate at different scales

    • Sometimes in a particular order

    • Sometimes at the same time

    • Much of the time NOTHING IS HAPPENING

    • Occasionally a lot happens due to significant energy release

    • At any one time, or from time to time, there may be:• Multiple metal stocks• Multiple energy sources• Multiple geodynamic movements and potential triggers• Evolving architecture

    We need to consider them as multi-dimensional – hence “5” Dimensions

    20

  • How Big is a Mineralising System?Mineral Systems are COMPLEX dynamical systems

    multi-nested, touching or overlapping systems

    level of system complexity increases by an order of magnitude with each additional system added to the nest (camp)

    Predicting behaviour of complex systems is never going to be easyBUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE

    Simplification of system models is attractive, but ultimately self defeating as it removes actors and links from the model that may be levers to behaviour

    21

  • 22

  • 23

    How to Build? : Mineralising Systems Map

  • 24

    How to Build? : Mineralising Systems Map

    Celina Brandon

  • 25

    How to Build? : Mineralising Systems Map

  • 26

    Tin Mineral System Analysis –Sedimentary Sub-System

    Fluvially suspended clays

    Clays with crystal

    substitution of Sn

    Off-shelf turbiditesFans, mixed quartz, carbonate mud and

    clays

    Airborne aeolian clay and

    muscovite+ quartzoseparticulates

    Clay on Floodplainmeander migration

    (refining)

    Clay deposited offshore shelf riftsExtended continental

    crust/lithosphere

    Intensely chemically

    weathered sedsPlus cycle 1 low

    toposupercontinent

    Clay in DeltasOn continentalCrust close to

    land

    PLUMES + HotspotsGEOSYSTEM

    chemicalweathering

    low topographicreliefsun luminosity

    temperateto tropicalclimate

    recycling previous cycle rock products

    SUPERCONTENTCYCLE GEOSYSTEM

    EarlyDeposition

    Winderosion

    Aerosolsettling

    Shelf edgedispersion

    accretion

    Isostaticlimits

    Erosionrate

    Clayproduction

    Redeposition

    Redepositionrate

    Deep OceanSediments

    risein CO2SO2

    regolithblanketing

    Protolithexposure

    continental breakupPassive marginextension

    (INTERNAL OCEAN) lateraltectonicescape

    continentalcold-dry

    continentalhot-dry

    Major riversystem R

    B R R

    B

    +

    +

    +

    +

    +

    +

    ++

    ++

    +

    +

    +

    +

    _

    _

    +

    + +

    +_

    _

    _

    _

    +

    Reduced Sn enriched protolithsPlus cycle 1 phyllites& S-granites 80M yr

    stable continent

    recycling previous cycle particulates

    THE SUN

    accretion

    Loading Subsidence

    Endothermic Exothermic Paired

  • 27

    Tin Mineral System Analysis –Sedimentary Sub-System

    Fluvially suspended clays

    Clays with crystal

    substitution of Sn

    Off-shelf turbiditesFans, mixed quartz, carbonate mud and

    clays

    Airborne aeolian clay and

    muscovite+ quartzoseparticulates

    Clay on Floodplainmeander migration

    (refining)

    Clay deposited offshore shelf riftsExtended continental

    crust/lithosphere

    Intensely chemically

    weathered sedsPlus cycle 1 low

    toposupercontinent

    Clay in DeltasOn continentalCrust close to

    land

    PLUMES + HotspotsGEOSYSTEM

    chemicalweathering

    low topographicreliefsun luminosity

    temperateto tropicalclimate

    recycling previous cycle rock products

    SUPERCONTENTCYCLE GEOSYSTEM

    EarlyDeposition

    Winderosion

    Aerosolsettling

    Shelf edgedispersion

    accretion

    Isostaticlimits

    Erosionrate

    Clayproduction

    Redeposition

    Redepositionrate

    Deep OceanSediments

    risein CO2SO2

    regolithblanketing

    Protolithexposure

    continental breakupPassive marginextension

    (INTERNAL OCEAN) lateraltectonicescape

    continentalcold-dry

    continentalhot-dry

    Major riversystem R

    B R R

    B

    +

    +

    +

    +

    +

    +

    ++

    ++

    +

    +

    +

    +

    _

    _

    +

    + +

    +_

    _

    _

    _

    +

    Reduced Sn enriched protolithsPlus cycle 1 phyllites& S-granites 80M yr

    stable continent

    recycling previous cycle particulates

    THE SUN

    accretion

    Loading Subsidence

    Endothermic Exothermic Paired

    Phyllosilicatemelting

  • The Discovery Science Mindset

    28

    A Tsunami of Systems Thinking Based Disruptive Innovations

    Critical ThinkingDecision MakingSystems Thinking

    for Discovery Success

  • Exploration needs a Broad Conceptual Framework

    Mineralising SystemsScience

    Targeting Science

    Value Chain

    Stakeholders Licence toOperate

    29

    LTO includes Legal and frameworkValue Chain includes Mineral Economics, Geometallurgy, Metallurgy and Engineering

  • Discovery

    Science

    Mineralising SystemsScience

    Targeting Science

    Value Chain

    Stakeholders

    Licence toOperate

    Discovery Science – New Innovative Thinking and Organisational…Is really BIG

    30

  • Other considerations beyond basic Systems Thinking

    31Sourcehttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Complex_systems

  • Image source: Huawei

  • BlitzX Top 5 Disruptive Discovery Paradigms

    1. Culture – science, trust, candour, Flearning loops, group memories, serendipity, urgency, minimum bureaucracy, skin in game, innovation(People not Capital Creates Wealth)

    2. New Eyes and New Frontiers

    3. Systems and Mineralising Systems understanding

    4. Access to Ground, Data

    5. Access to $

    X……Not geology…..? Without Systems just more data in the Lake

    X……Not AI and Machine Learning….(Not yet)