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Better Understanding IOCG Mineralising SystemsThrough Systems Thinking
Tim Craske, Geowisdom and Thinker.Events
1
“Science is a way to not get fooled” Richard Feynman
“The easiest person to fool is yourself…….”
2
The Why – Why we need Systems Thinking
3
Feedback Loops Required
Recent Perceptions of Mineral SystemsBUT… without feedback none of these is a System Map
4
Each circle or matrix box or triangular field is a system and each of these has sub-systems
Arrows indicate a time series of eventsOr mixing lines
From Hagemann et al, 2016
Systems usually have multiple loops
5
• Makes for much more complex dynamics andless certainty of stability
• For example…
235U supply 235U fission Neutrons
+
+
+
_
What is a System?
• The short answer is:
A system is a dynamic and complex whole
interacting as a structured functional unit
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Aggregation Reductionist science – tells
you lots about the components
SystemHolistic Thinking Required
If you cut a car in half you
Don’t get two small cars.
AEGC February 2018
Important Systems Traps
• Anchored by starting point that may not be relevant
• Overweighting probability of what already know or heard recently
• Only accept results that confirm their ideas
• Judging a probability of an event by how it resembles typical case
• Tendency to describe simple geometry whilst systems even with simple rules often develop fractal complexity
8
Systems Thinking – Beware Simplistic Analytics
• Analytical thinking can lead to incorrect analysis of cause and effect- some effects are inherent in the system, some are due to other parts of the system waning rather than a particular part growing
• “Once we see the relationship between structure and behaviour we begin to understand how systems work” Donella Meadows
- what makes them produce poor results or better results
e.g. flu virus does not attack you, you set up the conditions for it toflourish within you
9
Supercontinent Cycles, Ni-Cu-PGE & PGE Reef Deposits
Significant deposits mostly form during
later stages of amalgamation (A)
andthe collisional peaks (Kenorland, Nuna, Rodinia, Pangea)
• “picking the best haystack”
• Looking for evidence of process in the data patterns
• Notice evidence for feedback
Acutely Observe Patterns vs AnomaliesAnomaly = signature of focus
• Fixation on anomalies can lead to bump hunting mentality
• Example: Cloncurry mag-gravpost discovery Ernest Henry IOCG
• “going straight for the needle”
11
Image source: Fathom Geophysics
Pattern = signature of system process
Complex vs Complicated
12Source: Eric Berlow TED
“Simplicity often residesthe other side of Complex”
AEGC February 2018
A geology map is complex…………but not complicated to a trained geologist
13
Understanding is in the data
But often understanding is NOT in the statistics(kriging, potential field inversions)Which are always ambiguous
Knowledge is in the dynamics
Which are derived form nonlinear analysis
The results of which are sparse and unique
Dr Bruce Hobbs Thinker Events workshop, 2019
Critical Thinking about Critical Processes5 CRITICAL PROCESSES From pmd*CRC
1. Fertility
2. Geodynamics
3. Architecture
4. Trap
5. Modifiers
14
Training for New Paradigms
1. Systems and Critical Thinking….driving science based decisions
2. Culture Building
3. Collaboration for wealth
4. Mentoring and Systems based management/leadership
5. Innovation leadership and Change Agility
X……STOP: KPIs, exploration, 12 hour FIFO/DIDO shifts, mindless data collection (= insecurity), dumping older worker and tacit skills mindless hard data destruction or loss, mindless cost cutting
Archetype 1: Water Stock in Bath Tub
17
Archetype 1: Water Stock in Bath Tub
• If sum of inflows exceeds sum of outflows level will rise
• If sum of outflows exceeds sum of inflows level will fall
• If sum of outflows equals sum of inflows, stock level will not change –it will be held in dynamic equilibrium at whatever level it happened to be when the two flows became equal
• Stock can be increased by decreasing outflow as well as increasing inflow
• Stocks allow flows to be independent, decoupled, dependable
Stocks change slowly, even if rates flowing in or outchange suddenly. Stock act as delays in systems
18
Archetype 2: Capital System that Makes $by Extracting Ore
Adapted from Donella Meadows’ Oil Well model
• Capital Depreciation is balancing loop (B)
• Builds through investment of profits from mine, reinforcing loop (R)
• More capital allows more resource extraction
• Profit is income minus cost
• Income is price of commodity times tonnes extracted
• Cost is operating costs
• Resource is finite (no inflow)
19
How Big is a Mineralising System?• Mineral systems operate at different scales
• Sometimes in a particular order
• Sometimes at the same time
• Much of the time NOTHING IS HAPPENING
• Occasionally a lot happens due to significant energy release
• At any one time, or from time to time, there may be:• Multiple metal stocks• Multiple energy sources• Multiple geodynamic movements and potential triggers• Evolving architecture
We need to consider them as multi-dimensional – hence “5” Dimensions
20
How Big is a Mineralising System?Mineral Systems are COMPLEX dynamical systems
multi-nested, touching or overlapping systems
level of system complexity increases by an order of magnitude with each additional system added to the nest (camp)
Predicting behaviour of complex systems is never going to be easyBUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
Simplification of system models is attractive, but ultimately self defeating as it removes actors and links from the model that may be levers to behaviour
21
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How to Build? : Mineralising Systems Map
24
How to Build? : Mineralising Systems Map
Celina Brandon
25
How to Build? : Mineralising Systems Map
26
Tin Mineral System Analysis –Sedimentary Sub-System
Fluvially suspended clays
Clays with crystal
substitution of Sn
Off-shelf turbiditesFans, mixed quartz, carbonate mud and
clays
Airborne aeolian clay and
muscovite+ quartzoseparticulates
Clay on Floodplainmeander migration
(refining)
Clay deposited offshore shelf riftsExtended continental
crust/lithosphere
Intensely chemically
weathered sedsPlus cycle 1 low
toposupercontinent
Clay in DeltasOn continentalCrust close to
land
PLUMES + HotspotsGEOSYSTEM
chemicalweathering
low topographicreliefsun luminosity
temperateto tropicalclimate
recycling previous cycle rock products
SUPERCONTENTCYCLE GEOSYSTEM
EarlyDeposition
Winderosion
Aerosolsettling
Shelf edgedispersion
accretion
Isostaticlimits
Erosionrate
Clayproduction
Redeposition
Redepositionrate
Deep OceanSediments
risein CO2SO2
regolithblanketing
Protolithexposure
continental breakupPassive marginextension
(INTERNAL OCEAN) lateraltectonicescape
continentalcold-dry
continentalhot-dry
Major riversystem R
B R R
B
+
+
+
+
+
+
++
++
+
+
+
+
_
_
+
+ +
+_
_
_
_
+
Reduced Sn enriched protolithsPlus cycle 1 phyllites& S-granites 80M yr
stable continent
recycling previous cycle particulates
THE SUN
accretion
Loading Subsidence
Endothermic Exothermic Paired
27
Tin Mineral System Analysis –Sedimentary Sub-System
Fluvially suspended clays
Clays with crystal
substitution of Sn
Off-shelf turbiditesFans, mixed quartz, carbonate mud and
clays
Airborne aeolian clay and
muscovite+ quartzoseparticulates
Clay on Floodplainmeander migration
(refining)
Clay deposited offshore shelf riftsExtended continental
crust/lithosphere
Intensely chemically
weathered sedsPlus cycle 1 low
toposupercontinent
Clay in DeltasOn continentalCrust close to
land
PLUMES + HotspotsGEOSYSTEM
chemicalweathering
low topographicreliefsun luminosity
temperateto tropicalclimate
recycling previous cycle rock products
SUPERCONTENTCYCLE GEOSYSTEM
EarlyDeposition
Winderosion
Aerosolsettling
Shelf edgedispersion
accretion
Isostaticlimits
Erosionrate
Clayproduction
Redeposition
Redepositionrate
Deep OceanSediments
risein CO2SO2
regolithblanketing
Protolithexposure
continental breakupPassive marginextension
(INTERNAL OCEAN) lateraltectonicescape
continentalcold-dry
continentalhot-dry
Major riversystem R
B R R
B
+
+
+
+
+
+
++
++
+
+
+
+
_
_
+
+ +
+_
_
_
_
+
Reduced Sn enriched protolithsPlus cycle 1 phyllites& S-granites 80M yr
stable continent
recycling previous cycle particulates
THE SUN
accretion
Loading Subsidence
Endothermic Exothermic Paired
Phyllosilicatemelting
The Discovery Science Mindset
28
A Tsunami of Systems Thinking Based Disruptive Innovations
Critical ThinkingDecision MakingSystems Thinking
for Discovery Success
Exploration needs a Broad Conceptual Framework
Mineralising SystemsScience
Targeting Science
Value Chain
Stakeholders Licence toOperate
29
LTO includes Legal and frameworkValue Chain includes Mineral Economics, Geometallurgy, Metallurgy and Engineering
Discovery
Science
Mineralising SystemsScience
Targeting Science
Value Chain
Stakeholders
Licence toOperate
Discovery Science – New Innovative Thinking and Organisational…Is really BIG
30
Other considerations beyond basic Systems Thinking
31Sourcehttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Complex_systems
Image source: Huawei
BlitzX Top 5 Disruptive Discovery Paradigms
1. Culture – science, trust, candour, Flearning loops, group memories, serendipity, urgency, minimum bureaucracy, skin in game, innovation(People not Capital Creates Wealth)
2. New Eyes and New Frontiers
3. Systems and Mineralising Systems understanding
4. Access to Ground, Data
5. Access to $
X……Not geology…..? Without Systems just more data in the Lake
X……Not AI and Machine Learning….(Not yet)