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Best Practices for Alberta to become a Renewable Energy Leader
University of Calgary Forum
Tim Weis, P.Eng., Ph.D.
Pembina Institute
Feb 13, 2014
Disclaimer Pembina Institute does not have any
political affiliations
Information here is public
I like graphs
About the Pembina Institute 2010 marked the 25th anniversary of the Pembina Institute – born in the wake of the Lodgepole Sour Gas blowout.
4
Grounded Research – and Work
Photos: Tim Weis, Andrew Pape-Salmon
5
About Tim
• Director of renewable energy and energy efficiency policy
• Professional Engineer
• M.Sc. research on ice adhesion to wind turbine blades in subarctic
• Ph.D. in off-grid renewable energy
Photos: Tim Weis, Pembina Institute
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Canada’s Energy Future & Climate Change
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Climate change…
“….could be the biggest global health
threat of the 21st century” The Lancet (one of the world's most respected general medical
journals)
“…the greatest economic challenge of
the 21st century.”
Christine Lagarde, managing director of IMF
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9 Source: Environment Canada GHG Forecast 2013
Canada’s commitments
10 10
11 11
400
200
800
1985 2005 2025 2045 0
600
Mt
C0
2 /
yr
12
We have a long way to go…
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Why is everyone picking on us?
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9%
5%
16%
17%
51%
Newfoundlandandlabrador
PEI
NovaSco a
NewBrunswick
Quebec
Ontario
Manitoba
Saskatchewan
Alberta
Bri shColumbia
Yukon
NWT
Challenge & Opportunity– Electricity Sector GHG Emissions
Alberta
Reference National Inventory Report 2013
9%
5%
16%
17%
51%
Newfoundlandandlabrador
PEI
NovaSco a
NewBrunswick
Quebec
Ontario
Manitoba
Saskatchewan
Alberta
Bri shColumbia
Yukon
NWT
9%
5%
16%
17%
51%
Newfoundlandandlabrador
PEI
NovaSco a
NewBrunswick
Quebec
Ontario
Manitoba
Saskatchewan
Alberta
Bri shColumbia
Yukon
NWT
15
Alberta 2012 GHG emissions
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Good news: Intensity Reduction Forecast
Source: IPPSA (2013) Trends in GHG Emissions in the Alberta Electricity Market
17 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
Year
Battle River 3
Sundance 1
HR Milner 1
Sundance 2
Battle River 4
Sundance 3
Sundance 4
Sundance 5
Sundance 6
Battle River 5
Keephills 1
Keephills 2
Sheerness 1
Genesee 1
Sheerness 2
Genesee 2
Genesee 3
Keephills 3
Federal Regulations – 50 yr limit
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Electricity sector emissions to grow
Source: IPPSA (2013) Trends in GHG Emissions in the Alberta Electricity Market
~14% below 2005
0
20
40
60
Mt
CO
2/y
r
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Air emissions
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Health damages from pollution
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Costs • USA - National Research Council at
request of 2005 Energy Policy Act • Non-climate damage:
• Effects of air pollution on human health, grain crop and timber yields, building materials, recreation, and visibility of outdoor vistas
• Average damages: 3.2 ¢/kWh (2008)
• Greenstone and Looney: • 3.4 ¢/kWh for non-climate damage (2010)
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Health damages from pollution
http://canadagazette.gc.ca/rp-pr/p2/2012/2012-09-12/html/sor-dors167-eng.html
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What does this have to do with renewable energy policy?
• Successful renewable
energy policies need to be
developed with the explicit
goal of making appreciable
change • Nova Scotia – reduce coal use
by half by 2020
• Ontario – phase out of coal
(2002-2014)
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• Wind – 100,000+ MW • Hydro – 11,000 MW • Solar – Germany 28 TWh
in 2012 (1/2 physical size of AB)
• Others (geothermal, biomass, etc.)
• Current Alberta system • 14,000 MW installed • ~70 TWh
Renewables Potential
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Opportunities in Alberta
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Opportunities in Alberta
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Fun with numbers
Based on solar PV already in Germany
Alberta 2X land mass of Germany
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Falling Costs
Normalized price of solar PV modules SOURCE: RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICY NETWORK (REN21)
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Preliminary Greening the Grid Update
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High Levels of Wind Are Possible
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The Art of the Possible
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Alberta was a wind leader
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Policy Needs to Address Barriers to Renewables
Price Volatility/Uncertainty - Financing barrier
Policy Uncertainty/Competition
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Alberta pricing data
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0 5 10 15 20
Po
ol P
rice
($
/MW
h)
Time (h)
February 2011 Hourly Average Pool Price
Average Day
Windy Day
Weekday average price
Average – windy weekdays
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Wind Discount – bad for wind, good for consumers
$64.32 $65.44
$92.05
$70.47
$158.54
$69.93
$37.78
$79.41
$104.28
$67.32
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
Entire Pool Coal Gas Cogen Peaker Hydro Wind Other SK Imports BC Imports
Average Price per MWh
Source: AESO Annual Market Data (2012)
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Solar on your roof – subsidized the grid in 2013
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Renewables Have a Different Market Model • Costs are up front
• Long-term costs are
stables/predictable
• Can’t pass prices onto consumers in
Alberta market
“You can have the
transmission
interconnection and
you can have the
turbines, but you still
need to sell the power.
We need a power
purchase agreement in
place and it needs to
be a long-term
agreement.”
-Dick Williams,
President, Shell Wind
Energy
40
Toward Policy Solutions in Alberta • Clear goals with that demonstrat results
• Policy needs to address barriers specific
to renewables • Access to financing
• Recognizing full value
• Foster community engagement and
education • Consumer programs
• Efficiency efforts
41
Summary
• Major GHG reduction opportunity • Co-benefits of SOx, NOx, Hg, PM
• Potential to reduce health impacts in
overburdened airshed
• Alberta has plenty of renewable
options – but Business as Usual won’t
get us there • Policy is the key
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50Hz
60Hz
60Hz
Ross Island Wind/Diesel
Courtesy of Powercorp, Australia
pembina.org
e: [email protected] / [email protected]
ph: 780.667.6519 / 587.897.6261
weis_renewables pembina.institute
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Denmark • 52% wind by 2020
• 100% renewable electricity by 2035
• 100% renewable energy by 2050 • 171 Parliamentarians voted for 8 against.
• “The conclusion being it has a cost to make a green transformation, but it also has a cost not to do it. I think this will work out to be the best insurance Denmark has ever (bought).” • Energy Minister Lidegaard
