Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
No content below the line No content below the line
Ethylene Polymer Derivatives: Outlook & Balance 36th Latin American Petrochemical Annual Meeting
IPA/APLA Consultants’ Panel
November 19-22, 2016 – Buenos Aires
Bernardo E. Fallas
Associate Editorial Director
Americas Petrochemicals
No content below the line No content below the line
Agenda
Private & Confidential 2
North America All-in on polyethylene
Expansions at a glance
Oversupply & export strategy
Latin America Mexico’s new capacity & effect
South America: Project status
Supply/demand balance
Asia/Europe/Middle East China: MTO/CTO drives expansions
Iran: Post-sanction aspirations
Europe: Looking east for growth
Petrochemicals
No content below the line No content below the line
North America: PE expansions, exports & challenges
Petroquímica
No content below the line No content below the line
PE exports at the core of strategy
Private & Confidential 4
Petrochemicals
Company Location mt/yr Startup
Braskem-Idesa Mexico 1,000,050 H1 2016
Nova Chemicals Canada 431,000 Q4 2016
Ineos/Sasol La Porte, TX 460,000 Q1 2017
CP Chem Sweeny, TX 1,000,000 Q3 2017
Dow Chemical Freeport, TX 1,000,050 H2 2017
ExxonMobil Chemical Mont Belvieu, TX 1,300,000 H2 2017
Formosa Plastics CUSA Point Comfort, TX 750,000 2018
Sasol Lake Charles, LA 870,000 2018
Shell Chemicals Monaca, PA 1,000,000 2021/2022
ExxonMobil/Sabic Texas or Louisiana TBD 2023
No content below the line No content below the line
Up to 9 million mt/year surplus by 2025
Private & Confidential 5
Petrochemicals
0
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
30.000
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
,000 m
t/yr
NA PE capacity
NA PE production
NA PE demand
No content below the line No content below the line
Global polyethylene balance
Private & Confidential 6
Petrochemicals
No content below the line No content below the line
Beyond PE: What’s happening?
Private & Confidential 7
Petrochemicals
Company Location mt/yr Startup
Occidental/Mexichem Texas 550,000 H1 2017
Dow Chemical Texas 1,500,000 H2 2017
ExxonMobil Chemical Texas 1,500,000 H2 2017
CP Chem Texas 1,500,000 H2 2017
Formosa Plastics CUSA Texas 1,500,000 2018
Shintech Louisiana 500,000 2018
Axiall/Westlake-Lotte Louisiana 1,200,000 2018/2019
Sasol Louisiana 1,500,000 2018/2019
Shell Chemical Pennsylvania 1,600,000 2021/2022
PTTGC Ohio 1,000,000 2021/2022
ExxonMobil/Sabic Texas or Louisiana 1,800,000 2023
No content below the line No content below the line
Beyond PE: What’s happening?
Private & Confidential 8
Petrochemicals
Company Product mt/yr Startup
Shintech VCM/PVC 300,000 150,000 in 2015
Company Product mt/yr Startup
M&G PET 1,100,000 H2 2016
Company Product mt/yr Startup
PS
No content below the line No content below the line
Latin America: Etileno XXI, imports & stalled projects
Petroquímica
No content below the line No content below the line
Private & Confidential 10
75-25 JV between Braskem and Grupo
Idesa in Nanchital, Veracruz state
1 million mt/year ethane-fed cracker
online in Q1 2016, PE lines in Q2
Feedstock (66,000 b/d) supplied by
Pemex TRI under long-term deal
PE exports significant for first 1-3 years
as it grows domestic market share
Etileno XXI is Mexico’s new flag bearer Petrochemicals
Photo credit: Braskem Idesa
No content below the line No content below the line
Private & Confidential 11
Startup highlights Mexico’s ethane problem Petrochemicals
Tender for ethane/floating storage is the
latest effort to deal with shortage
Braskem-Idesa production curtailed by
feedstock supply issues early
Pemex crackers at Cangrejera, Morelos
(1.2 million mt/year combined capacity)
getting what’s left of ethane
Pajaritos cracker offline since April
No content below the line No content below the line
South America PE production limited
Private & Confidential 12
Petrochemicals
Total South America
Production:
3.2 million mt/year
Demand:
5.05 million mt/year
Deficit:
1.45 million mt/year
Production: 0 mt/year
Demand: 286,000 mt/year
Production: 0 mt/year
Demand: 376,000 mt/year
Production: 2.7 million mt/year
Demand: 2.3 million mt/year
Production: 518,000 mt/year
Demand: 698,000 mt/year
Production: 50,000 mt/year
Demand: 299,000 mt/year
Production: 300,000 mt/year
Demand: 355,000 mt/year
No content below the line No content below the line
Private & Confidential 13
Latin American PE balance/polymer projects Petrochemicals
No content below the line No content below the line
Europe/Asia/ME: CTO/MTO, Iran & Russia
Petroquímica
No content below the line No content below the line
China bets on CTO/MTO technologies
Private & Confidential 15
Petrochemicals
No content below the line No content below the line
Petrochemicals
16
Asia: Most PE supply remains in region
-10.000
0
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
2015 2016 2017
'00
0 M
T
Asia PE Production
Asia PE Demand
Asia PE Surplus/Deficit
No content below the line No content below the line
Petrochemicals
Private & Confidential 17
Asia: Unable keep pace with growing demand
No content below the line No content below the line
Petrochemicals
18
Middle East: Governments stimulate demand
• Potential Central Asia
expansions
in the long term
• Total (2016-2017)= 1.36 mil
mt/year (2.55 mil mt/year
including Iran)
0
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
2015 2016 2017
'00
0 M
T
Middle East PEDemand
Middle East PESurplus/Deficit
Middle East PECapacity
No content below the line No content below the line
Middle East: Post-sanctions Iran makes a move
Private & Confidential 19
Petrochemicals
No content below the line No content below the line
Petrochemicals
Private & Confidential 20
Middle East: Eyes Europe, Africa, Asia for exports
No content below the line No content below the line
Petrochemicals
21
Europe: Middle East share of PE exports to fall
UK converters looking to
export face lower production
costs but higher upstream
costs post Brexit
Total (2017) = 1.5 mil mt/year
-5.000
0
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
2015 2016 2017
'00
0 M
T
Europe PEProduction
Europe PEDemand
Europe PESurplus/Deficit
No content below the line No content below the line
Petrochemicals
Private & Confidential 22
Europe: Market short PE through 2019
No content below the line No content below the line
¡Gracias! Thank you! Obrigado! Questions?
Petrochemicals
