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Before I begin I want to thank Bruce, Blain, Laalitha, Patricia, and Megan, wonderful folks who provided both the inspiration and expertise for developing this presentation. I may be the one standing here today but this presentation wouldn’t be possible without their help and input.

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So let’s turn our attention to a topic that is gaining a lot of attention recently, and that is climate migration.Climate migration is a term describing population displacement due to impacts on the environment from climate change, particularly from sea level rise, extreme weather events, and…………………….drought.

Photo: Adobe Stock

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This issue of climate-related pressures on population displacement is such an important one particularly since it has so many direct and indirect public health concerns. That’s why this issue has made it onto my radar, as a public health scientist, as well as so many others in the health field.

In months and years to come you can expect to hear a lot more discussion on this issue start to trickle down from international and federal organizations to the laps of state and local agencies and decision-makers.

Yes, immigration is a highly politicized issue right now in our country, but politicized or not, climate migration is an issue that demands a fair consideration of all aspects, ranging from ethics to the economy, as well as discussion on what a rise in climate migration means for U.S. states, like Minnesota.

My goal in outlining this topic for you today is to jumpstart this discussion broadly, taking advantage of the links between drought and displacement, and therefore this forum, to inspire all of us here to consider some important questions, about our state’s ethical role, practical responsibilities, logistical challenges and potential gains regarding climate migration.

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We can start with the obvious –Drought is an environmental threat that is substantially influenced by changes in our earth’s climate. Certainly, like most environmental threats, the occurrence and severity of drought is influenced by many factors, not just the climate, but key climate change markers, like rising temperatures and more erratic precipitation patterns, are widely considered to be contributing to worsening drought around the world.

But globally the occurrence and severity of drought is unevenly distributed. Certainly the U.S. has had it’s share of drought, but the increase in drought frequency and severity has been devastating particularly in some nations well represented by established foreign-born citizens here in Minnesota, particularly countries in Latin America and East Africa.

Photo: Adobe Stock

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For example,the northern triangle or “Dry Corridor” of Central America, includes Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras, and it is the largest source of asylum seekers crossing the US border.

It is also an area deeply affected by drought. Starting around 2014, this region has been hit year after year by devastating drought, making it impossible for the agricultural sector to rebound, which underpins the economy in these areas.

According to a report by the U.N.’s Food and Agriculture Organization, subsistence farmers across the Dry Corridor lost more than half of their corn and bean crops in 2018 due to drought, affecting the food and nutrition situation of more than two million people.

Photo: AdobeStock

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Another area decimated by severe multi-year drought is East Africa, notably Somalia and Ethiopia. Minnesota has a large established immigrant population with ties to these countries. And, full disclosure, I have ties to Ethiopia myself…this American-born Minnesotan descended from German immigrants…..as both of my kids were born in Ethiopia and we maintain a heartfelt connection to the people there.

In this part of the world, the Horn of Africa, up to 80% of the population are subsistence farmers, the majority of families survive on what food they are able to grow, so even the smallest shifts in weather can leave families and entire communities with absolutely nothing. Oxfam reports that this year alone there are approximately 8.5 million people in Ethiopia and 5.4 million people in Somalia facing acute food insecurity.

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Drought alone does not always require that people flee their homes for survival. However, many of these drought-impacted nations are also experiencing major economic instability, gang violence, and weak government infrastructure, making for a deadly mix of pressures fueling largescale population displacement.

This tragic triad is yet another example of why climate change is so often referred to as a threat amplifier or a risk multiplier because it aggravates existing vulnerabilities in a population toward an adverse outcome.

Regional conflict, gang violence, government persecution, and government instability exacerbate the impact of drought, particularly in areas where people are so highly dependent on the land for their survival and there are few emergency response supports or alternative options for earning a living.

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We are seeing a dramatic uptick in research on the casual links between climate change hazards, conflict, and migration. But even still it’s very difficult to get reliable statistics on how much climate related hazards, like drought, are contributing to changes in migration patterns. In part, because it’s very difficult to pull apart and quantify all the various situational factors that drive a person to abandon their home and leave their community, particularly when there is an overlap of conflict and disaster.

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Many leading authoritative reports on climate migration focus on internal displacement, that’s when people are displaced from their homes but move somewhere else within their country. Most refugees start their migration journey as IDPs, internally displaced people, moving from rural to urban areas within their country of origin, and from there to cross-border displacement depending on whether or not they found employment and housing in their new location in-country or were able to return to their original home.

It’s especially challenging characterizing migration patterns related to a slow-onset, long-term, cyclical climate disaster like drought.

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So there is a major data gap hindering our clear understanding of climate migration. But all the more why we need to track and scrutinize the data that are being reported.

One leading authority publishing data on climate migration is the Internal Displacement Monitoring Center based out of Geneva, Switzerland. Their numbers are focused on internal displacement patterns only, but the IDMC does try and identify leading drivers of migration. In their most recent Global Report on Internal Displacement, they state that in 2018 there were 28 million new IDPs.

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Of those, the IDMC estimates that around 11 million IDPs were attributed to conflict and violence, while over 17 million were attributed to disasters, many of which are influenced by climate change, including drought. The IDMC estimates that in 2018, over 3 quarters of a million IDPs were linked to drought. The year prior, 2017, well over a million were displaced due to drought.

http://www.internal-displacement.org/sites/default/files/publications/documents/201906-annual-report-2018.pdf

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That’s one snapshot of the current displacement situation related to climate-related disasters but what can we estimate about the future?

There are global authorities tackling that accounting challenge as well. In 2018, the World Bank released a seminal report titled “Groundswell: Preparing for Internal Climate Migration”. This report was the first of its kind to introduce slow-onset climate impacts (like drought, water stress, and crop failure) into a model of future population displacement.

Image: Adobe StockAgain the focus is on IDPs, internally displaced persons, but given that a percentage of

IDPs will eventually leave the country…I’ve seen % ranging from 20 to 40% depending on the year and reporting authority…estimates of IDP trends do provide some suggestion of how many displaced people will seek to immigrate to a foreign country.

According to the World Bank about 143 million migrants will be displaced as a result of climate change by 2050. The UN Refugee Agency estimates that number to be closer to 250 million people. For context, the current population of Russia is about 144 million.

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So imagine, based on the more conservative World Bank estimates, the entire nation of Russia on the move, driven to flee their homes because of climate related pressures by 2050, within the next 3 decades. If these conservative estimates are correct, that’s a massive population shift that will certainly have a ripple effect on the US.

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So, to recap, we’ve got this rapidly unfolding global issue with probable implications for the U.S. and U.S. states.

It’s difficult to quantify because it’s so complex and involves so many overlapping factors.

But data and research are starting to come together to support discussions and policy-making…

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Probably the leading challenge right now in addressing climate-displaced people is that currently there is no legally recognized definition of a climate migrant and there’s sound debate as to whether there should be. There are a lot of terms used to describe these folks, including climate refugees, however, that term is technically misleading.

Simply put, you cannot be given refugee status and therefore asylum in the U.S. based on climate-related disasters or any disasters, like volcanoes or earthquakes. Currently, the US only accepts refugees who have been targeted based on their race, religion, nationality, or politics. Migrants displaced by climate change have no formal rights or protection in the U.S. or even internationally.

Photo: Adobe Stock

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A very recent bill titled the Climate Displaced Person’s Act was introduced in October by Representative Velaquez to address the growing effect of CC on human migration.The bill would create some limited formal protections for individuals categorized as climate-displaced persons and would allow a small number of CDPs access to resettlement opportuntites.

And there are some interesting policy efforts happening at the state level too…

In Massachusetts, Representative Liz Miranda introduced a state bill (H 149) proposing an 11-member commission that would evaluate the state’s efforts after Hurricane Maria and advise the Legislature on ways to prepare for future influxes of individuals forced to leave their homes due to “either sudden on-set disasters or slow on-set degradation of their natural environments related to flooding, extreme weather events, sea-level rise, and droughts.”

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And there’s some more discussion happening at the city level but largely focused again on internal displacement, which is certainly an issue for the US, not just Somalia or Guatemala. In 2018, there were well over a million Americans internally displaced by disasters, either temporarily or permanently, making us 4th over all in the world for IDPs displaced by disaster, far more than Somalia even.

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So, what does this all mean for MN?

I’m afraid that’s a question I myself can’t fully answer, but I can bring forward a couple relevant points to help the discussion along.

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First point – Climate-related migration seems likely to be an issue for MN, less so in terms of people leaving……like we see occurring in areas of flooded Florida and fire-ravaged California…but in terms of people coming. Maybe some of you caught wind of all the media that erupted when Jesse Kennan, a climate adaptation expert at Harvard University, proclaimed that Duluth MN would be one of the best cities in the nation to escape the worst effects of climate change. Our reputation as an alienating outpost of lethal cold is disappearing and more and more we’re seeming a safe harbor from the climate crisis.

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Second point, displacement and immigration hold both challenges and opportunities for those moving and for the hosting population. According to a 2017 report on climate migration from the UN Development Program, “the overall impact of human mobility at the sending and receiving ends may be more positive than is commonly portrayed.” There are distinct opportunities and benefits to Minnesota related to climate migration and immigration broadly. I’ll revisit this in just a moment…..

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Third point, a planning product does exist to help decision leaders start identifying challenges and opportunities related to climate migration within their jurisdiction and that is a climate adaptation plan. Many states and cities have a climate adaptation plan where climate threats, population vulnerabilities and impacts are explored and response strategies are proposed for consideration.

Forward-looking adaptation plans could factor in the needs and impacts of climate migrants, such as on infrastructure, labor markets and services, like education and health care. A consideration of climate migration would be reasonable certainly within state level adaptation plans, but may also be relevant to municipal level planning and not just major metro areas, but perhaps for smaller communities like Worthington MN where approximately 1/3 of residents are foreign-born, drawn to the area for employment.

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And the fourth and final point, pivoting off the prior two, is the need to think about climate migration as not just an urban/city planning issue. While current patterns of climate-related displacement demonstrate that most displaced persons migrate to nearby cities and from there if they migrate cross-border, it’s likely to another city.

And in fact, most state and local level discussion on climate migration are focused more so on that urban pathway, increased immigration to cities. And some great information and planning resources are coming forth from those conversation, like this report from the 100 Resilient Cities project.

Yet, the benefits of immigration are such that rural communities need also be included in the consideration of climate migrants, particularly as migration can serve rural workforce needs and help balance host population loss, and Worthington is a good example of this.

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This leads me back to my point about opportunities related to climate migration as well as immigration broadly for MN.

A major opportunity for MN or any state really relating to climate migration is the potential for building and enhancing the host labor force. And this is a major issue for MN right now, the fact that future labor force projections suggest that MN labor force growth is slowing substantially and that will have serious repercussions on our economy.

Domestic and international immigration are the leading means of countering this slow down.

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If not for Minnesota’s populations of color and foreign-born immigrants the size of MN’s workforce would be declining.

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Final recap….

- Climate-related hazards, like drought, are contributing to increasing trend in climate migration, including for the US.

- Research and data have gaps but are quickly evolving to help support advances in planning and policy-making, even at the state and local level.

- Minnesota may very likely experience more climate migration in the coming years.- Climate Adaptation Plans are one tool for advancing planning around climate

migration and capturing issues for key sectors like housing, health care, and labor.- Climate migration, like immigration broadly, provides an opportunity for MN to

address its slowing labor force growth and strengthen its economy long-term.

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In wrapping up, I just want to recognize that for a lot of us here climate migration may not be the first issue that comes to mind regarding drought and health, and I’d agree that there are certainly more proximal pressing health issues for MN, such as mental health impacts on our farmers or threats to drinking water, but I wanted to tackle this issue here because:

1) it is such a compelling, emerging issue relevant to drought, and 2) because I feel very strongly that it when it comes to investigating climate change

impacts on health, particularly those mediated through our environment, like drought, we need to challenge ourselves to not only think proximal to the problem in terms of direct impacts, but also to try and capture all those distal, indirect impacts, some of which are linked to massive mortality and morbidity burdens.

The more open and tenacious we are about unpacking all the different pathways, direct and indirect linking drought to health impacts, the greater our resiliency will be.

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