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Beautiful City: Urban Growth, Leisure, and Aesthetics
Jerry CarlinoAlbert Saiz
Main Message I
• Revision of extant working paper• What drives urban and residential real estate
growth in the USA?• Increased role of amenities: consumer city
hypothesis.• But how important quantitatively?• Need measurements of leisure amenities and
environmental and architectural beauty
Measuring Urban Lifestyle Amenities
• How do you measure city lifestyle attraction?
• Places that are attractive places for leisure activities generate more touristic visits: NYC, Paris, Florence, Barcelona, London, Singapore, Tokyo
• Fractal version at the US urban level
• More visits
• More employment in tourism-related activities
• Revealed preference for aesthetics: online user generated picturesque location
• Detour: validate online photo frequency as a measure of aesthetics
Main Message II
• Provide some measurable correlates of city attractiveness
• Evaluate the different importance of characteristics that make a city attractive for leisure activities in the US
Main Message III
• Study the correlates of urban growth and housing demand in the United States (descriptive)
• What is the relative strength of urban growth predictors in the USA?
Tourism Data
• Proprietary: D.K. Shifflet and Associates• Destinations for individuals who traveled for
leisure purposes• Mailing of 180,000 households in 1992• Returned samples are re-balanced to be
representative of the U.S. population • Sample of 155 MSAs: top destinations
Imputation• Use variables that explain tourism and…• …alternative measure of tourism activity:
number of employees in tourism-related activities
– Hotels– Air travel– Amusement/recreation
• The latter variable is very strongly associated with observable tourism visits in non-censored observations
Estimated Tourism Trips and Employment
Akron
Albany
Albuquerque
Allentown
Amarillo
Appleton
AshevilleAtlanta
Atlantic City
Augusta-Richmond County (balance)
Austin
Bakersfield
Baltimore
Baton Rouge
BillingsBiloxiBirmingham
Boise City
Boston
BuffaloBurlington
Cedar Rapids
Charleston
Charleston
Charlotte
Charlottesville
Chattanooga
Chicago
Cincinnati
CleavelandColorado Springs
ColumbiaColumbia
Columbus
Corpus ChristiDallas
Dayton
Daytona BeachDenverDes Moines
Detroit
Duluth
El Paso
Erie
EugeneFargo
Fayetteville
Flagstaff
Fort LauderdaleFort Myers
Fort WayneFort Worth
Fresno
Gainesville
Galveston
Grand Rapids
Green Bay
Greensboro
Greenville
Harrisburg
Hartford
Houston
Huntsville
Indianapolis City (balance)
Jackson
Jacksonville
Kansas City
Knoxville
Lancaster
Lansing
Las Vegas
Lexington-Fayette
LincolnLittle RockLos AngelesLouisvilleLubbock
Macon
Madison
Medford
Menphis
Miami
Milwaukee
Minneapolis
Mobile
Montgomery
Myrtle Beach
Naples
Nashville-Davidson (balance)
New OrleansNew York
Newark
Norfolk
Oakland
Ocala
Oklahoma City
Omaha
Orlando
Panama City
PensacolaPeoria
Philadelphia
PhoenixPittsburgh
Portland
Portland Raleigh
Rapid City
Reading
Reno
Richmond
Riverside
Roanoke
Rochester
Rochester
Rockford
St. Louis
Salem
Salinas
Salt Lake City
San AntonioSan Diego San Francisco
San Jose
Santa Barbara
Santa Fe
Santa Rosa
Sarasota
Savannah
SeattleShreveport
Sioux Falls
South Bend
Spokane
SpringfieldSpringfield
State CollegeSyracuse
Tacoma
Tallahassee
Tampa
Toledo Topeca
Tucson
Tulsa
Waco
Washington
West Palm Beach
WichitaWilmington
-2-1
01
2Le
isure-
trave
l-bas
ed M
easu
re
-1 0 1 2 3Employment-based Measure
(DETOUR)Crowdsourcing Architectural Beauty: Online Photo
Frequency Predicts Building Aesthetic Ratings(Forthcoming at PlosOne)
Albert SaizArianna Salazar
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
What?
• We demonstrate that the local frequency photos posted by internet users in two photo-sharing websites (Panoramio and Flicker) and geotagged around a building strongly predicts its subjective beauty ratings by independent raters.
• Validates incipient literature using online photo frequencies and tags with independent separate rating survey
Why?Many factors may affect the propensity of internet users to upload photos.
a) Some buildings acquire iconic status, regardless of their potential aestheticb) Others happen to be in high-traffic (e.g., touristic) areas or cities.
c) Users may upload photos for idiosyncratic reasons (noise).Problems if:
i) the noise to signal ratio is too high for image uploads to be practical;
ii) idiosyncratic noise is correlated negatively with the latent variable of interest
iii) the aesthetic tastes of people actively sharing online content are substantially different from those of the public at large.
Therefore, the use of geotagged image frequencies as proxies for the human appreciation of urban environmental features needs to be validated.
Spatial Distribution of Photos Uploaded on Panoramio 2014
Matching Photos to Building• Calculate rings around each building in the
dataset by Emporis (206,216 buildings)• Use address of building to geocode • Number of photos around each ring akin to
probability field: need to use this with LLN in mind!
• Automatic GPS coordinates from where photos was taken
• Users position photos with a bias toward locating it at the building´s centroid
• Data consistent with he joint hypothesis that more photos around 50 meters tend to associated with the specific building´s beauty
Architectural Beauty Survey
Beauty is in the Eye of the Rater
Covariance of subjective beauty with photo frequency
Correlate scores of buildings to frequency of photos around building
• Average Effects: cluster by building• Allows to then control by rater
characteristics
24
68
10
Aver
age
surv
ey s
core
0 50 100 150 200
Flickr photo uploads
frequency of number of images
Linear fit
Quadratic fit
45
67
89
Aver
age
surv
ey s
core
0 20 40 60 80
Panoramio (2014) photo uploads
frequency of number of images
Linear fit
Quadratic fit
More Photos in field implies better independent ratings
-.20
.2.4
Cha
nge
in s
urve
y sc
ores
0 100 200 300 400 500
Distance (meters)
Estimated score gains Moving average
Linear fit Quadratic fit
-.02
0.0
2.0
4.0
6
Cha
nge
in s
urve
y sc
ores
0 100 200 300 400 500
Distance (meters)
Estimated score gains Moving average
Linear fit Quadratic fit
Conditional spatial decay: not contextual
Correlates of Rated
Beauty
Observable Beauty Correlates with Localized Photo Frequency
Is this driven by tastes of internet junkies?
Conclusions
• Local photo frequency seems to capture aspects of perceived beauty of buildings
• Robust result; extremely difficult to explain otherwise
• Photo frequencies (as uploaded by internet enthusiasts) capture well ratings of people who seldom post stuff online
(END OF DETOUR)
AbileneAkron
Albany
Albany
Albuquerque
AlexandriaAllentown
Altoona
AmarilloAnn Harbor
Appleton
Asheville
Athens - Clarke County (balance)Atlanta
Atlantic City
Auburn
Augusta-Richmond County (balance)
AustinBakersfield
Baltimore
Bangor
Barnstable Town
Baton Rouge
Beaumont
Bellinghan
Benton HarborBillingsBiloxi
BinghamtonBirmingham
Bismarck
Bloomington
Bloomington
Boise CityBoston
Boulder
Bremerton
BrownsvilleBryan
Buffalo
Burlington
Canton
Casper
Cedar Rapids
Champaign
Charleston
Charleston
Charlotte
Charlottesville
ChattanoogaCheyenne
ChicagoChico
Cincinnati
Clarkesville
Cleaveland
Colorado Springs
Columbia
ColumbiaColumbus City (balance)
ColumbusCorpus Christi
Corvallis
CumberlandDallas
Danville
Davepont
Dayton
Daytona Beach
Decatur Decatur
Denver
Des MoinesDetroit
Dothan
DoverDubuque
Duluth
Eau Claire
El Paso
ElkhartElmira
Enid
Erie
Eugene
Evansville
Fargo
Fayetteville
Fayetteville
Flagstaff
Flint
Florence
Florence
Fort Collins
Fort Lauderdale
Fort Myers
Fort Pierce
Fort Smith
Fort Walton Beach
Fort Wayne
Fort Worth
Fresno
Gadsden
GainesvilleGalveston
Gary
Glenn Falls
Goldsboro
Grand Forks
Grand Junction
Grand Rapids Great FallsGreeley
Green BayGreensboro
Greenville
Greenville
Hagerstown
HamiltonHarrisburg
Hartford
Hattiesburg
Hickory HoumaHouston
Huntington
HuntsvilleIndianapolis City (balance)
Iowa City
Jackson JacksonJackson
Jacksonville
JacksonvilleJamestown
Janesville
Jersey City
Johnson CityJohnstown
JonesboroJoplinKalamazoo
Kankakee Kansas CityKenosha
Killeen
Knoxville
Kokomo
La CrosseLafayetteLafayette
Lake Charles
Lakeland Lancaster
LansingLaredo
Las Cruces
Las Vegas
LawrenceLawton
Lewiston
Lexington-Fayette
Lima
LincolnLittle Rock
Longview
Los Angeles
LouisvilleLubbock
Lynchburg
Macon
Madison
Mansfield
McAllen
Medford
Melbourne
MenphisMerced
Miami
Milwaukee
Minneapolis
Missoula
Mobile
Modesto
Monroe
MontgomeryMuncie
Myrtle Beach
Naples
Nashville-Davidson (balance)New Haven
New London
New Orleans
New YorkNewark
Newburgh
NorfolkOakland Ocala
Odessa
Oklahoma City
Olympia
Omaha
Orlando
Owensboro
Panama City
Parkersburg
Pensacola
PeoriaPhiladelphia
Phoenix
Pine Bluff
Pittsburgh
Pittsfield
Pocatello
Portland
Portland
Providence
Provo
Pueblo
Punta Gorda
Racine
Raleigh
Rapid City
Reading
Redding Reno
Richland
Richmond
Riverside
Roanoke
Rochester
Rochester
Rockford
Rocky Mountain
SaginawSt. Cloud
St. Joseph
St. Louis
Salem
Salinas
Salt Lake City
San Angelo
San Antonio
San DiegoSan Francisco
San Jose
San Luis Obispo
Santa BarbaraSanta Cruz Santa Fe
Santa RosaSarasota
Savannah
Scranton
Seattle
Sharon
SheboyganSherman
ShreveportSioux City
Sioux Falls
South Bend
Spokane Springfield
SpringfieldSpringfield
State College
SteubenvilleStockton
Sumter
Syracuse
Tacoma
Tallahassee
Tampa
Terre Haute
TexarkanaToledo
Topeca
Trenton
Tucson
TulsaTuscaloosaTyler
Utica
VallejoSan Buenaventura (Ventura)
Victoria
Vineland
Visalia
Waco
Washington
Waterloo
Wausau
West Palm Beach
WheelingWichitaWichita Falls
Williamsport WilmingtonYakima
York
Youngstown
Yuba City
Yuma
-20
24
Pop.
Adju
sted
Log
Pan
oram
io P
hoto
s in
201
4
-2 -1 0 1 2 3Pop.Adjusted Log Million Tourists in 1990
Drivers of Attractiveness
• Reassuringly, the 3 proxies have very similar predictors
• Perhaps sadly, effect of capital expenditures in recreation on urban beauty does not seem robust, although it may increase expenditures on local tourism
Leisure and Picturesqueness
• Tourism levels and picturesqueness highly correlated even after controlling for population
• Of course, photos could be endogenous to growth
• Therefore, use 1992 tourism instrument for 2014 photos!
AbileneAkron
Albany
Albany
Albuquerque
AlexandriaAllentown
Altoona
AmarilloAnn Harbor
Appleton
Asheville
Athens - Clarke County (balance)Atlanta
Atlantic City
Auburn
Augusta-Richmond County (balance)
AustinBakersfield
Baltimore
Bangor
Barnstable Town
Baton Rouge
Beaumont
Bellinghan
Benton HarborBillingsBiloxi
BinghamtonBirmingham
Bismarck
Bloomington
Bloomington
Boise CityBoston
Boulder
Bremerton
BrownsvilleBryan
Buffalo
Burlington
Canton
Casper
Cedar Rapids
Champaign
Charleston
Charleston
Charlotte
Charlottesville
ChattanoogaCheyenne
ChicagoChico
Cincinnati
Clarkesville
Cleaveland
Colorado Springs
Columbia
ColumbiaColumbus City (balance)
ColumbusCorpus Christi
Corvallis
CumberlandDallas
Danville
Davepont
Dayton
Daytona Beach
Decatur Decatur
Denver
Des MoinesDetroit
Dothan
DoverDubuque
Duluth
Eau Claire
El Paso
ElkhartElmira
Enid
Erie
Eugene
Evansville
Fargo
Fayetteville
Fayetteville
Flagstaff
Flint
Florence
Florence
Fort Collins
Fort Lauderdale
Fort Myers
Fort Pierce
Fort Smith
Fort Walton Beach
Fort Wayne
Fort Worth
Fresno
Gadsden
GainesvilleGalveston
Gary
Glenn Falls
Goldsboro
Grand Forks
Grand Junction
Grand Rapids Great FallsGreeley
Green BayGreensboro
Greenville
Greenville
Hagerstown
HamiltonHarrisburg
Hartford
Hattiesburg
Hickory HoumaHouston
Huntington
HuntsvilleIndianapolis City (balance)
Iowa City
Jackson JacksonJackson
Jacksonville
JacksonvilleJamestown
Janesville
Jersey City
Johnson CityJohnstown
JonesboroJoplinKalamazoo
Kankakee Kansas CityKenosha
Killeen
Knoxville
Kokomo
La CrosseLafayetteLafayette
Lake Charles
Lakeland Lancaster
LansingLaredo
Las Cruces
Las Vegas
LawrenceLawton
Lewiston
Lexington-Fayette
Lima
LincolnLittle Rock
Longview
Los Angeles
LouisvilleLubbock
Lynchburg
Macon
Madison
Mansfield
McAllen
Medford
Melbourne
MenphisMerced
Miami
Milwaukee
Minneapolis
Missoula
Mobile
Modesto
Monroe
MontgomeryMuncie
Myrtle Beach
Naples
Nashville-Davidson (balance)New Haven
New London
New Orleans
New YorkNewark
Newburgh
NorfolkOakland Ocala
Odessa
Oklahoma City
Olympia
Omaha
Orlando
Owensboro
Panama City
Parkersburg
Pensacola
PeoriaPhiladelphia
Phoenix
Pine Bluff
Pittsburgh
Pittsfield
Pocatello
Portland
Portland
Providence
Provo
Pueblo
Punta Gorda
Racine
Raleigh
Rapid City
Reading
Redding Reno
Richland
Richmond
Riverside
Roanoke
Rochester
Rochester
Rockford
Rocky Mountain
SaginawSt. Cloud
St. Joseph
St. Louis
Salem
Salinas
Salt Lake City
San Angelo
San Antonio
San DiegoSan Francisco
San Jose
San Luis Obispo
Santa BarbaraSanta Cruz Santa Fe
Santa RosaSarasota
Savannah
Scranton
Seattle
Sharon
SheboyganSherman
ShreveportSioux City
Sioux Falls
South Bend
Spokane Springfield
SpringfieldSpringfield
State College
SteubenvilleStockton
Sumter
Syracuse
Tacoma
Tallahassee
Tampa
Terre Haute
TexarkanaToledo
Topeca
Trenton
Tucson
TulsaTuscaloosaTyler
Utica
VallejoSan Buenaventura (Ventura)
Victoria
Vineland
Visalia
Waco
Washington
Waterloo
Wausau
West Palm Beach
WheelingWichitaWichita Falls
Williamsport WilmingtonYakima
York
Youngstown
Yuba City
Yuma
-20
24
Pop.
Adju
sted
Log
Pan
oram
io P
hoto
s in
201
4
-2 -1 0 1 2 3Pop.Adjusted Log Million Tourists in 1990
Not a Tourism Industry Issue
• Actually, these cities had relatively less growth in leisure-related services (hotels, restaurants, etc) as personal services and tertiarization were catching up in more “remote” metros (regression to mean).
• Include contemporaneous changes in tourism-related employment (1990-2010): no changes to coefficients
Not driven by income/productivity
• In fact, the effect stays the same after controlling for contemporaneous change sin income (1990-2010)
• Very demanding specification, as income and population growth are jointly co-determined
Not driven by previous trends
• Pop growth trends are very persistent• Possibility that even tourism in 1992 driven by
secular growth• However, results robust to including growth in
1980-1990• Due to the possibility of over-controlling: this
seems to be a relatively newer phenomenon!
AbileneAkronAlbany
Albany
Albuquerque
Alexandria
Allentown
Altoona
AmarilloAnn HarborAppleton
AshevilleAthens - Clarke County (balance)
Atlanta
Atlantic City
Auburn
Augusta-Richmond County (balance)
Austin
Bakersfield
Baltimore
Bangor
Barnstable Town
Baton Rouge
Beaumont
Bellinghan
Benton Harbor
Billings
Biloxi
Binghamton
Birmingham
BismarckBloomington
Bloomington
Boise City
Boston
Boulder Bremerton
BrownsvilleBryan
Buffalo
Burlington
Canton
Casper Cedar Rapids
Champaign
Charleston
Charleston
Charlotte
Charlottesville
ChattanoogaCheyenne
ChicagoChico
Cincinnati
Clarkesville
Cleaveland
Colorado Springs
ColumbiaColumbia
Columbus City (balance)
Columbus
Corpus ChristiCorvallis
Cumberland
Dallas
Danville
DavepontDayton
Daytona Beach
Decatur
Decatur
Denver
Des Moines
Detroit
Dothan
Dover
Dubuque
Duluth
Eau Claire
El Paso
Elkhart
Elmira
EnidErie
Eugene
Evansville
Fargo
Fayetteville
Fayetteville
Flagstaff
Flint
Florence
Florence
Fort Collins
Fort Lauderdale
Fort Myers
Fort Pierce
Fort SmithFort Walton Beach
Fort Wayne
Fort Worth
Fresno
Gadsden
GainesvilleGalveston
Gary Glenn Falls
Goldsboro
Grand Forks
Grand Junction
Grand Rapids
Great Falls
Greeley
Green Bay
Greensboro
Greenville
Greenville
HagerstownHamilton
Harrisburg
Hartford
Hattiesburg
Hickory
Houma
Houston
Huntington
Huntsville
Indianapolis City (balance)Iowa City
Jackson
JacksonJackson
Jacksonville
Jacksonville
Jamestown
JanesvilleJersey CityJohnson City
Johnstown
Jonesboro
Joplin
Kalamazoo
Kankakee
Kansas CityKenosha
Killeen
Knoxville
Kokomo
La Crosse
LafayetteLafayette
Lake Charles
Lakeland
Lancaster
Lansing
Laredo
Las Cruces
Las Vegas
Lawrence
Lawton
Lewiston
Lexington-Fayette
Lima
LincolnLittle Rock
Longview
Los Angeles
Louisville
LubbockLynchburgMacon
Madison
Mansfield
McAllen
MedfordMelbourne
Menphis
Merced
Miami
Milwaukee
Minneapolis
Missoula
Mobile
Modesto
Monroe
Montgomery
Muncie
Myrtle Beach
Naples
Nashville-Davidson (balance)
New HavenNew London
New Orleans
New YorkNewark
Newburgh
NorfolkOakland
Ocala
Odessa
Oklahoma City
Olympia
Omaha
Orlando
Owensboro
Panama City
Parkersburg
Pensacola
Peoria Philadelphia
Phoenix
Pine BluffPittsburghPittsfield
Pocatello
Portland
Portland
Providence
Provo
Pueblo
Punta Gorda
Racine
Raleigh
Rapid CityReading Redding
RenoRichland
Richmond
Riverside
Roanoke
Rochester
Rochester
Rockford
Rocky Mountain
Saginaw
St. Cloud
St. Joseph St. Louis
Salem
Salinas
Salt Lake City
San Angelo
San Antonio
San Diego
San Francisco
San JoseSan Luis Obispo
Santa BarbaraSanta Cruz
Santa Fe
Santa Rosa
Sarasota
Savannah
Scranton
Seattle
Sharon
Sheboygan
Sherman
ShreveportSioux City
Sioux Falls
South Bend
Spokane
Springfield
Springfield
Springfield
State College
Steubenville
Stockton
Sumter
Syracuse
TacomaTallahasseeTampa
Terre Haute
Texarkana
Toledo
TopecaTrenton
Tucson
TulsaTuscaloosa
Tyler
Utica
VallejoSan Buenaventura (Ventura)Victoria
Vineland
Visalia
Waco
Washington
Waterloo
Wausau
West Palm Beach
Wheeling
Wichita
Wichita Falls
Williamsport
WilmingtonYakimaYork
Youngstown
Yuba City
Yuma
0.5
1Lo
g Po
pula
tion
2010
- Lo
g Po
pula
tion
1990
-.2 0 .2 .4 .6Log Population 1990 - Log Population 1980
Predictors of US metro growth: 1990-2000
• Urban picturesqueness and leisure• Good weather• Immigration• Low taxes
• How does the picture change if we omitted urban beauty?
Are these better measures?
• Measure is better than previously used ad hoc variables
• These are more likely to be reverse-caused by growth
Other outcomes
More picturesque cities associated with:
• Increased in human capital levels• Increase in housing prices• Potential slower growth in income and wages,
adjusting for human capital (consistent with Rosen-Roback framework)
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