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MIDDLE EAST

31 January 2012 Last updated at 09:13 ET

Guide: Syria Crisis

The Syrian authorities have responded to anti-government protests with overwhelmin

military force since they erupted in March 2011. The protests pose the greatest

challenge to four decades of Assad family rule in the country.


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Here is an overview of the uprising, in which the UN says more than 5,000 civilians have

been killed by security forces and 14,000 others detained. The government says 2,000

members of the security forces have died.

How did the protests start?

The unrest began in the southern city of Deraa in March when locals gathered to demand th

release of about 15 school children who were arrested and reportedly tortured after writingon a wall the well-known slogan of the popular uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt: "The people

want the downfall of the regime." The protesters also called for democracy and greater

freedom, though not President Assad's resignation.

The peaceful show of dissent was, however, too much for the government and when people

marched though the city after Friday prayers on 18 March, security forces opened fire,

killing four people. The following day, they shot at mourners at the victims' funerals, killing

another person.

Within days, the unrest in Deraa had spiralled out of the control of the local authorities. In

late March, the army's fourth armoured division - commanded by the president's brother,

Maher - was sent in to crush the emboldened protesters. Dozens of people were killed, as

tanks shelled residential areas and troops stormed homes, rounding up those believed to

have attended demonstrations.

But the crackdown failed to stop the unrest in Deraa, instead triggering anti-governmentprotests in other towns and cities across the country, including Baniyas, Homs, Hama and

the suburbs of Damascus. The army subsequently besieged them, blaming "armed gangs

and terrorists" for the unrest. By mid-May, the death toll had reached 1,000.

What do the protesters want and what have they got?

Protesters began somewhat cautiously by calling for democracy and greater freedom in

what is one of the most repressive countries in the Arab world. But once security forces

opened fire on peaceful demonstrations, people demanded that Mr Assad resign.

The president has resolutely refused to step down, but in the few public statements he has

made since March he has offered some concessions and promised reform. Activists say

that - as long as people continue to be killed - his promises count for very little.

The demands


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What protesters want What Assad has offeredFall of the regime

Mr Assad has made clear that he has no intention to step

down

End to the 48-year-old emergency law

He revoked the emergency law on 21 April, but Syrian

forces continued to open fire on demonstrations and detain

people without arrest warrants

Immediate end to extrajudicial killings and torture

The president has rejected as "false" allegations made by

the UN that Syrian security forces have committed crimes

against humanity, including killings, torture, rape,

imprisonment, and other forms of severe deprivation of

liberty and disappearances

Release of political prisoners and detained protesters

Amnesties were offered to political prisoners in May, June

and January. Off icials say thousands were released, but a

many as 37,000 are still in prison, according to human

rights activists

Transition to a democratic, free and pluralistic society

In June, Mr Assad announced the start of a "national

dialogue", which would review new election law, allowing

political parties other than the Baath Party, and

constitutional reform. The opposition and activists involved

in the uprising rejected any dialogue

Is there an organised opposition?

The Syrian authorities have long restricted the activities of disparate opposition parties and

activists, and they played a minor role at the start of the uprising. However, as the protests

spread across the country and the government crackdown intensified, opposition groups

publicly declared their support for the protesters' demands and in November severalannounced the formation of a united front, Syrian National Council (SNC). Led by the Paris-

based dissident Burhan Ghalioun and including the Muslim Brotherhood, it aims to provide

"the necessary support for the revolution to progress and realise the aspirations of our

people for the overthrow of the regime, its symbols and its head".

The SNC, which is dominated by Syria's majority Sunni Muslim community, has struggled to

win over Christians and members of President Assad's Alawite sect, who each make up

about 10% of the population and have so far stayed loyal to the government. The council'sprimacy has also been challenged by the National Co-ordination Committee (NCC), an

opposition bloc that still functions within Syria and is led by Hussein Abdul Azim and other

longstanding dissidents, some of whom are wary of the Islamists within the SNC.

The opposition has also found it difficult to work with the Free Syrian Army (FSA), a group o

army defectors which is seeking to topple Mr Assad by force. Based in Turkey, its fighters


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have launched increasingly deadly and audacious attacks on security forces in the north-

western province of Idlib, around the central cities of Homs and Hama, and even on the

outskirts of Damascus.

In January, residents of Zabadani, a mountain town 40km (25 miles) north-west of the

capital, said it had been "liberated" by FSA fighters. Days later, defectors seized control of

Douma, a suburb 10km (six miles) from Damascus, for a few hours. The FSA's leader,

Riyad al-Asaad, claims to have 15,000 men under his command, though analysts believe

there may be no more than 7,000. They are also still poorly armed, and many have only

basic military training.

Is this a sectarian conflict?

Syria is a country of 21 million people with a large Sunni majority (74%) and significant

minorities (10% each) of Christians and Alawites - the Shia sect to which Mr Assad belongs

For years, Mr Assad has promoted a secular identity for the Syrian state, hoping to unifydiverse communities in a region where sectarian conflict is rife - as seen in neighbouring

Lebanon and Iraq.

However, he also concentrated power in the hands of his family and members of the Alawite

community, who wield a disproportionate power in the Syrian government, military and

business elite. Claims of corruption and nepotism have been rife among the excluded Sunni

majority. And protests have generally been biggest in Sunni-dominated rural areas, towns

and cities, as opposed to mixed areas.

Opposition figures have stressed that they seek a "multi-national, multi-ethnic and

religiously tolerant society". But there are fears of chaos and instability - even talk of civil

war - if Mr Assad should fall. Activists say these fears are overblown.

What is the international community doing?

Syria is a major player in the Middle East. Any chaos here could cause knock-on effects in

countries such as Lebanon and Israel, where it can mobilise powerful proxy groups, such asthe militant Hezbollah and Hamas movements. It also has close ties with Shia power Iran -

an arch-foe of the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia - which could potentially draw those powers

into a dangerous Middle Eastern conflict.

The Arab League initially remained silent on the issue of Syria - although it backed the Nato

led bombing campaign against Libya's Col Muammar Gaddafi in a bid to protect civilians


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there. The 22-member group called for an end to the violence, but cited hesitation over any

action because of "strategic and political considerations".

But in November, member states led by Qatar and Saudi Arabia surprised observers by

voting to suspend Syria in an effort to force President Assad to end the crackdown. The

League later imposed economic sanctions when the Syrian government hesitated over

allowing the deployment of an observer mission to verify its implementation of a peace

initiative, which demanded the withdrawal of troops and tanks from the streets. Damascus

eventually allowed in the observers in December, but they failed to halt the crackdown on

dissent.

In late January, the Arab League laid out an ambitious plan of political reform, which called

on President Assad to delegate power to a vice-president, to engage in proper dialogue with

the opposition within two weeks, and form a government of national unity in two months. The

League said this should eventually lead to multi-party elections overseen by international

observers. A week later, following a dramatic increase in violence, the League suspended it

observer mission.

The League has said it will seek the support of the UN Security Council for its Syrian reform

plan. The Syrian government has rejected the proposals, saying they would infringe on

national sovereignty. Russia - which has significant economic and military ties with Syria -

has meanwhile vetoed previous efforts by the United States and European Union to take

action against Syria at the Security Council, concerned that it would pave the way for

military intervention.

What is the economic fallout of the unrest in Syria?

In June, Mr Assad warned his people that "the most dangerous thing" facing Syria was "the

weakness or collapse" of the Syrian economy. Even before the unrest, Syrians had endured

decades of high unemployment, widespread poverty and rising food prices.

Now, business, farming and trade have been hard hit by economic sanctions imposed by theArab League, the European Union, the United States and neighbouring Turkey. Tourism has

all but collapsed, while oil sales - accounting for a major share of government revenue -

have plummeted. Unemployment is estimated to have risen to more than 20%.

Economic analysts warn that time is against Mr Assad. They say protests will gain added

momentum when the newly-unemployed join their ranks and government subsidies on vital


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commodities like diesel run out.

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