DETERMINING THRESHOLD FOR OCCURRENCE OF LANDSLIDES USING BAYESIAN INFERENCE METHODSubmitted to theDepartment of Electronics & communications Engg.MAHARAJA SURAJMAL INSTITUTE ! TE"HNL#$%##SI&U' Ne( Del)i* IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTSFOR THE PROJECT OF B.TECH (2nd YEAR) IN ELECTRONICS &COMMUICATION ENGINEERING+,ANMOL TANEJAUnder the Supervision ofDr. AMITANSHU PATTANAIKScientist DEFENCE TERRAIN RESEARCH LABORATORYMETCALFE HOUSE, DELHI 1100542014ACKNOWLEDGEMENTIn completing my project I am thankful to many individuals and I must place on recordmy sincere thanks to them all.And here I would like first of all to express my deep sense of gratitude to my supervisorDr. AmitanshuPattanaikScientist !D"whogavemehisinvalua#leguidanceglowingwith his words of encouragement and inspiration criticisms and discussions throughoutthe research tenure.I amthankful toDefence$errain%esearch&a#oratory'D$%&( whichcomesunderDefence %esearch ) Development *rganisation 'D%D*( +inistry of Defence ,ovt. ofIndia +etcalfe -ouse Delhi.I alsowishtoexpressalsomydeepsenseof regardforDr+%.hutiyani DirectorDefence $errain %esearch &a#oratory 'D$%&( Sh. SunilDhar Scientist !/" at D$%&D%D* +etcalfe -ouse Delhi for their fruitful suggestions and valua#le discussions ondifferent aspects of the project work. I am very much grateful to Dr. 0aveen 1apur Director +SI$ for his valua#le support atthe Institution &evel for giving me the opportunity for pursuing this ..$ech course andhelp in conceptualising the project2research work and to all those outstandingindividuals with whom I have worked in this Institution who helped me understandingthe concept. I amthankful to /r. PU0//$ A3AD -*D /4/Department +s. +.A,4-IProfessor /4/ Department and +r. A *./%*I -ead $raining and Placement +SI$for the motivation and inspiration that triggered me for the thesis work.

CONTENTSCONTENTSPREFACECERTIFICATEDECLARATION COMPANY INTRODUCTION (DTRL & DRDO) LANDSLIDE STUDY AREA METHODLOGY STATSTICAL METHOUDS AYESIAN INFERENCE APPROACH FRE!UENTIST PROLISTIC METHOUD RESULTS & GRAPHS CONCLUSION REFERENCES PREFACEIn t)is report -arious p),sical .ase/ pre/iction mo/els )a-e .een /iscusse/. In In/ia'rainfall is t)eprimar,trigger of lan/sli/es t)at fre0uentl,causefatalities an/largeeconomic /amage. Using -arious useful /ata ()ic) is ta1en from Tangini site is locate/in Jos)imat) region of ")amoli /istrict of Uttra1)an/' In/ia. 2e )a-e compile/catalogue of 334 Rainfall e-ents occurre/ /uring perio/ of Jan 3' 5637 to Jul, 8 '5637 . T)e catalogue represents t)e single largest collection of information on rainfallin/uce/ lan/sli/es in In/ia' an/ (as e9ploite/ to /etermine t)e minimumrainfallcon/itions necessar, for lan/sli/e occurrence in In/ia.!or t)e purpose'ne( nationalrainfall t)res)ol/s for In/ia is esta.lis)e/' using t(o in/epen/ent statistical met)o/s'inclu/ing a +a,esian inference met)o/ an/ a ne( !re0uentist approac). In t)is (e )a-euse/ +a,esian inference met)o/ ()ic) is .est suite/ to anal,:e small /ata sets. 2)ereas!re0uentist approac) is use/ for larger /ata set usuall, sprea/ o-er ,ears. A sc)eme.ase/ on pro.a.ilistic t)res)ol/s is propose/. T)res)ol/s separate ;el/s' eac)c)aracteri:e/ ., /ifferent rainfall intensit,