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INTERNATIONAL EDITION | SATURDAY-SUNDAY, JULY 8- 9, 2017

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Three years ago this past week, a black-clad cleric named Abu Bakr al-Baghdadiascended a mosque pulpit in the Iraqicity of Mosul and declared the creationof a new terrorist state.

His announcement of the so-called ca-liphate was a high point for theextremist fighters of the Islamic Stategroup. Their exhibitionist violence andapocalyptic ideology helped them seizevast stretches of territory in Syria andIraq, attract legions of foreign fighters

and create an administration with bu-reaucrats, courts and oil wells.

Now, their state is crumbling.In Syria, American-backed militias

have surrounded Raqqa, the group’scapital, and breached its historic walls.Across the border, Iraqi forces haveseized the remains of the Mosul mosquewhere the caliphate was declared andbesieged the remaining jihadists in ashrinking number of city blocks.

But the loss of its two largest citieswill not spell a final defeat for the Is-lamic State — also known as ISIS, ISILand Daesh — according to analysts andAmerican and Middle Eastern officials.The group has already shifted back to itsroots as an insurgent force, but one that

Iraqi civilians escaping the fighting in Mosul, Iraq, on Tuesday near the heavily damaged Al Nuri Grand Mosque, where the Islamic State leader declared a caliphate three years ago.FELIPE DANA/ASSOCIATED PRESS

Battered but not defeated

People use a makeshift crossing near Raqqa, Syria, where a bridge was destroyed.GORAN TOMASEVIC/REUTERS

BEIRUT, LEBANON

As its state crumbles, ISISreturns to insurgent roots,now with a global reach

BY BEN HUBBARDAND ERIC SCHMITT

ISIS, PAGE 6

For years before North Korea fired itsfirst intercontinental ballistic missilethis past week, the Pentagon and intelli-gence experts had sounded a warning:Not only was the North makingprogress quickly, spy satellite coveragewas so spotty that the United Statesmight not see a missile being preparedfor launch.

That set off an urgent but quiet searchfor ways to improve America’s early-warning ability — and the capability tostrike missiles while they are on thelaunchpad. The most intriguing solu-tions have come from Silicon Valley,where the administration of PresidentBarack Obama began investing in tiny,inexpensive civilian satellites devel-oped to count cars in Target parking lotsand monitor the growth of crops.

Some in the Pentagon accustomed torelying on highly classified, multibillion-dollar satellites, which take years to de-velop, resisted the move. But as NorthKorea’s missile program progressed,American officials laid out an ambitiousschedule for the first of the smallsatellites to go up at the end of this year,or the beginning of next.

Launched in clusters, some staying inorbit just a year or two, the satelliteswould provide coverage necessary toexecute a new military contingencyplan called “Kill Chain.” It is the firststep in a new strategy to use satellite im-agery to identify North Korean launchsites, nuclear facilities and manufactur-ing capability and destroy them pre-emptively if a conflict seems imminent.

Even a few extra minutes of warningmight save the lives of tens of thousandsof Americans — and millions of SouthKoreans and Japanese who already livewithin range of the North’s missiles.

“Kim Jong-un is racing — literally rac-ing — to deploy a missile capability,”Robert Cardillo, the director of the Na-tional Geospatial-Intelligence Agency,which coordinates satellite-based map-ping for the government, said in an in-terview days before North Korea’s latestlaunch. “His acceleration has caused usto accelerate.”

The timeline for getting the satellitesin orbit, which defense officials have

U.S. hasplan to trackmissiles in North KoreaSilicon Valley technologyaims to plug intelligencegap with tiny satellites

BY DAVID E. SANGERAND WILLIAM J. BROAD

SATELLITES, PAGE 5

ORAN, ALGERIA The Arab springs arenearly all out of season; everywhereexcept in Tunisia, they are agingpoorly.

In the beginning, after a popularuprising, it was the dictator who fled,by airplane, as did president Zineel-Abidine Ben Ali of Tunisia in early2011. Now it’s the opposite that is hap-pening: It’s the people who are fleeing,for instance from Syria, by sea andland.

This reversal raises an essentialquestion, both simple and tragic: Canone still call for democracy after thevictory of President Bashar al-Assad ofSyria, even if that victory turns out to

be temporary, assome predict?What does itmean for thepeoples of theMaghreb and theMiddle East?

For many, thefirst lesson to bedrawn from theSyrian case isobvious: Onecan’t always winthe revolution, or

at least not as fast as one would like.So far Assad has come out of the

conflict alive, even strengthened — atthe cost of the slaughter of half hispeople. His longevity goes to show thatbeing wrong and facing fierce opposi-tion from dissidents, an army and alarge swath of the international com-munity aren’t enough to unseat a dicta-tor.

Assad, by killing so many Syrians,has also killed the dream of democracyfor many other Syrians, as well as forplenty of people elsewhere in the Arabworld. They can see that a revolution-ary often ends up a martyr, a torturedprisoner, a militiaman in the pay offoreign forces or an unwelcomerefugee. And neither his children norhis people are the better for it. That’senough to sow doubt in even the mostdemocratic of minds and the mostfervent of revolutionaries.

And so here is the first Assad effect:The perception that democracy iscostly — perhaps too costly.

Another consequence of Assad’s

What Arabshave learnedfrom Assad

OPINION

Syria’spresident isstill standingafter six yearsof war. Has hekilled hope fordemocracy inthe region?

DAOUD, PAGE 13

Kamel DaoudContributing Writer

“Are you [expletive] serious rightnow?”

Lena Headey is incredulous, anamused smile curving lips best knownfor sneering as Cersei Lannister on“Game of Thrones.” She is piloting herblack Land Rover through the narrow,twisty roads of her native West York-shire, a realm of charming villages andno observable traffic laws. The back isfilled with car seats and mommish detri-tus, signs of a bountiful family life decid-edly at odds with that of Cersei, one ofthe most persecuted (and vindictive)characters on a show known for baroquemiseries.

One quality the actress does share

with her most famous character: Shedoesn’t suffer fools, especially reportersfoolish enough to ask for details aboutthe obsessively secretive show’sseventh season, beginning July 16, onHBO.

“Um, she’s not having a good time —there you go,” she adds, laughing. “Ap-parently winter is really coming, fi-nally.”

It’s a joke on the show’s longstandingtag line, but also a reminder that the endis in sight for “Game of Thrones.” Withjust 13 episodes remaining — seven thisseason and six the next — this sprawlingfantasy epic has entered its climacticstretch.

Season 7 will be largely about bring-ing together primary characters that ei-ther have been long separated, or whohave never actually met. At the top ofthe heap sits Cersei, who over six sea-sons lost her father and three children —three murders and a suicide — alongwith her dignity, during a nude walk ofshame that ranks among television’smost memorable, memeable sequences.

She has the crown. Now what?

Lena Headey plays Cersei Lannister, one of the most persecuted and vindictive charac-ters on “Game of Thrones.” The seventh season of HBO’s hit show starts on July 16.

TOM JAMIESON FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

WEST YORKSHIRE, ENGLAND

Lena Headey, Cerseiin ‘Game of Thrones,’ hasher own power moves

BY JEREMY EGNER

HEADEY, PAGE 2

8-9, 2017

IN MOSUL, ESCAPE PROVES HARROWING

In the old city of Mosul in Iraq, IslamicState fighters are hemmed in andcivilians are trapped. PAGE 6

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