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MIT Bates Linear Accelerator Center Wind Energy Resource Assessment
ProjectPreliminary Analysis Report
Presented by: Alex KalmikovWind Energy Projects in Action (WEPA)Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Bates Google Earth visualizationhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cnqsUIGZgHc
December 8 2011
Bates Water Tower Site
• Elevation: 64±1m above mean sea level
• Coordinates +42° 35' 47.90", -70° 58' 42.66" (Latitude 42.596638, Longitude -70.978518)
Bates Water Tower Site
Wind Power Density31
2PWPD UA
NREL table: http://rredc.nrel.gov/wind/pubs/atlas/tables/1-1T.html
Fundamental Equation of Wind Power– Wind Power depends on:
• amount of air (volume) • speed of air (velocity) • mass of air (density)flowing through the area of interest (flux)
– Kinetic Energy (mass, velocity):
• K
– Power is KE per unit time:
• .
– Thus:
• P
AU
dm A Udt
mass flow rate = density·Area·flux
212KE m U
12P 2dm U
dt
• Power ~ cube of velocity• Power ~ air density• Power ~ rotor area ~ square of radius
312P A U
Meteorological Tower • NRG Systems 34m tower
Sensor 1 Sensor 2 Sensor 3 Sensor 4 Serial Number 1021 1022 1016 1023 Monitoring Height 34m 34.2m 20m 20.2m Primary / Redundant 20cm 20cm 20cm 20cm Mounting Orientation Degrees - Magnetic
268 124 268 124
Boom Length 1.5m 1.5m 1.5m 1.5m Mount Above Boom Calibrated by: Otech Otech Otech Otech Calibration Date 10/16/09 10/16/09 10/16/09 10/16/09 Slope (mph/Hz) 0.759 0.758 0.757 0.759 Offset (mph) 0.34 0.38 0.38 0.38 Logger Terminal # Ch 1 Ch 2 Ch 3 Ch 13 Comments:
Sensor 1 Sensor 2 Monitoring Height 33m 19m Mounting Orientation
Degrees - Magnetic 178 178
Boom Length 1.5m 1.5m Mount Above Boom 20cm 20cm Deadband Orientation (º) -2 -2 Logger Terminal # Ch 7 Ch 8 Comments:
Wind Resource Assessment Data collection• 1 year: November 3 2010 - November 7 2011
• Two heights: 20 and 34 meters above the ground
• Data filtering: icing and tower shadow
• Data recovery rate 98.9%.
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 160
0.05
0.1
Height 34mWeibullScale=5 WeibullShape=2.32
0 5 10 150
0.05
0.1
Height 20mWeibullScale=3.98 WeibullShape=2.08
Wind Speed [m/s]
Tower Shadow and Data Filtering• Difference between two anemometers mounted at different angles
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
Wind direction [Degrees]
Win
d sp
eed
diffe
renc
e [m
/s]
Raw dataIce freeze filteredExpected tower shadow
Wind Resource Analysis
Nov.18,2010 Dec.19,2010 Jan.19,2011 Feb.18,2011 Mar.21,2011 Apr.21,2011 May.22,2011 Jun.22,2011 Jul.22,2011 Aug.22,2011 Sep.22,2011 Oct.23,20110
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Win
d S
peed
[m/s
]
10 minute average 34mMonthly average 34mMonthly average 20m
Measured Wind Speed
522.083.983.52922.325.004.431 year
Mean WPD20m
Weibull Shape20m
Weibull Scale20m
Mean Wind20m
Mean WPD34m
Weibull Shape34m
Weibull Scale34m
Mean Wind34m
Wind Resource Analysis Measured Wind Speed
522.083.983.52922.325.004.431 year
482.043.893.44902.375.044.46Oct 2011
242.453.292.92422.764.093.64Sep 2011
441.803.503.10752.024.433.92Aug 2011
262.273.322.93472.764.263.80Jul 2011
312.253.503.10562.574.423.93Jun 2011
552.464.323.83882.625.124.55May 2011
702.024.413.901162.165.344.74Apr 2011
692.354.534.011192.655.594.96Mar 2011
622.494.423.921202.585.564.94Feb 2011
412.113.653.23852.374.844.29Jan 2011
961.934.684.131672.265.975.28Dec 2010
592.204.243.751072.405.324.72Nov 2010
Mean WPD20m
Weibull Shape20m
Weibull Scale20m
Mean Wind20m
Mean WPD34m
Weibull Shape34m
Weibull Scale34m
Mean Wind34m
Wind Shear Estimation
• Shear: increase of horizontal velocity with height
• Power law fit to vertical wind profile
• Wind Shear Exponent
• Matching WPD at 2 measurement heights
-2 -1 0 1 2 3 40
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
0.025
0.03
0.035
0.04
0.045
Shear Exponent
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 10
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
0.025
0.03
0.035
0.04
0.045
Shear Exponent
DistributionModeMeanMedian
-2 -1 0 1 2 3 40
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
0.025
0.03
0.035
0.04
0.045
Shear Exponent0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
0
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
0.025
0.03
0.035
0.04
0.045
Shear Exponent
DistributionModeMeanMedian
00
( ) hU h Uh
Extrapolated Wind Power Density
• Sensitivity to wind shear
• Uncertainty due to vertical extrapolation
91.2691.4891.8191.9992.15Lower bound
364748915292.051.7Upper bound
14513210892.073.4Shear=1/7
27421913692.053.6Shear=0.34
29323013992.052.0Shear=0.36
100m80m50m34m20mElevation
312WPD U
Directional Wind Distribution• Wind rose
34 m
2%
4%
6%
WEST EAST
SOUTH
NORTH
0 - 22 - 44 - 66 - 88 - 1010 - 1212 - 1414 - 1616 - 18
2%
4%
6%
WEST EAST
SOUTH
NORTH
0 - 22 - 44 - 66 - 88 - 1010 - 1212 - 1414 - 1616 - 18
2%
4%
6%
WEST EAST
SOUTH
NORTH
0 - 22 - 44 - 66 - 88 - 1010 - 1212 - 1414 - 1616 - 18
20 m
Directional WPD Distribution• Energy rose
34 m 20 m
2%
4%
6%
WEST EAST
SOUTH
NORTH
0 - 2020 - 5050 - 100100 - 200200 - 300300 - 500>=500
2%
4%
6%
WEST EAST
SOUTH
NORTH
0 - 2020 - 5050 - 100100 - 200200 - 300300 - 500>=500
Turbine Power Estimates
1,800,0001,300,000450,000140,00020,000Approximate Cost [$]
121514.51013Rated Wind Speed[m/s]
2.5 / 254 / 253.5 / 252.5 / 253.5 / 25Cutin / Cutout Speeds[m/s]
502921103.7Rotor Diameter [m]
50503736.620Hub Height [m]
500225100202.4Rated Power [kW]
Polaris America
AeronauticaWindpower
Northern Power Systems
PolarisAmerica
SouthwestWindpowerManufacturer
Polaris 500Aeronautica 29-225Northern Power 100Polaris 20Skystream 3.7
14.469.3611.109.675.24Annual Capacity Factor [%]
634,000184,50097,32016,9601,103Annual Energy Production [kWh]
Shear=1/7
17.9512.3311.7110.265.24Annual Capacity Factor [%]
786,750243,200102,70017,9801,103Annual Energy Production [kWh]
Shear=0.36
Polaris 500
Aeronautica29-225
Northern Power 100
Polaris 20
Skystream3.7
Shear Estimate
Summary• MIT Bates Linear Accelerator Center Wind Energy Resource
Assessment Project
• NRG 34m meteorological tower at Bates Water Tower Site
• 1 year of data: November 3 2010 - November 7 2011
• Wind power class 1 - “Poor” resource potential
• Uncertainty in vertical extrapolation
• Preliminary understanding of prevailing winds
• Selected turbines power estimates
Low wind site may benefit from the newer low wind turbine technology.
Questions