Basic EV Calcs 101

8/10/2019 Basic EV Calcs 101

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Expected Value (or EV) is a mathematical analysis of risk-reward from a specific action(bet, raise, or call) in a poker hand. It shows the net of how much we would expect togain or lose per hand, on aerage, when we take that specific action. !e want to choosethe action that maximi"es our EV when deciding whether check or bet and fold, call, orraise.

In each document, each indiidual row represents an EV calc for one ##. $he right side%EV& column has an auto-calculating formula already entered in for eery row. 'ou donot need to do anything in those cells. ust leae them the way they are, and when youenter in each ariable for the row, you will find the answer to your EV. $his is also truefor the documents that hae a column that says %-*E& ( + *old Euity) that column isauto-calculating as well and its best not to edit those cells.

SPREADSHEET #1: EV Call (All-in or River)

$his is used to do the most basic EV calculation we always do when faced with a /all or

*old pot odds decision. If illain bets 01 into a pot of 023 on the rier, and we aredebating whether to call or fold4) $he EV of a fold 5 3. !ere putting no more money into the pot, were risking 3 to win3, and so our EV 5 36) EV of a /all 5 7eward 8 9ur Euity - 7isk 8 ( - 9ur Euity)

9ur reward is going to be the /urrent :ot ;i"e < Villains =et ;i"e. ;o using the aboeexample, our 7eward 5 023 < 01.

9ur risk is simple4 how much do we owe> #ere, its the 01 bet we hae to call.

9ur Euity 5 the ? chance our hand will win on the rier s. illains betting range. 'oucan use :okerstoe to find this s. illains range on an earlier street.

9r if youre facing a rier bet, simply count the number of combos in illains bettingrange that you beat, and the number of combos that beat you.9ur Euity will then 5 @ combos we beat A (@ combos we beat < @ combos that beat us)

In the aboe example, lets say we hold BC on a board of B6DrD and illain bets therier with a range of4 BB, , FBs, B$s, BGsH. #ere there are combos that beat us(one BB, three , and two FBs because we block one B and theres one already on theboard), and D combos that we beat (two B$s, two BGs, again because two Bings areremoed from the deck).

;o our euity 5 @ combos we beat A (@ combos we beat < @ combos that beat us) 5 DA(D < ) 5 DA3 5 D3?

$hen, our EV will be4


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EV 5 0D1 8 D3? - 01 8 (- D3?) 5 0J - 01 8 (3?) 5 0J - 0G 5 0G

!e hae a 'ou probably know thisalready, but when were facing a pot-si"ed bet, we need at least 22.22? euity tobreakeen or turn a profit. Enter in 22.2222 for our Euity, and you should now find thatour EV 5 3.

*acing a 7aise4Oets do one more example where we bet on the rier and are facing a raise. !eredebating whether to call or fold. !hen facing a raise, the math becomes Pust a little bitmore complicated.

Imagine you bet N3 into a pot of 33, and then you get raised to 63. If youre facing araise, then the Q=et ;i"eQ column will be how much you still owe. ;ince we bet N3 andgot raised to 63, we still owe D3 more. Enter in D3 for the Q=et ;i"eQ column. $heQ/urrent :otQ will eual the original pot si"e (33) < our initial bet si"e (N3). Enter inN3 under the /urrent :ot column. If our euity is only 6N? s. a tight M nutted rierraising range, then our EV 5 -J.1. !e should betAfold here.

$ry one of your own hands where you were debating an all-in or rier call. 'ou can seethat you can use these spreadsheets to mass produce seeral EV calcs in a short period oftime. $ake 1 minutes to analy"e three similar handsAdecisions at once. 9r you cangenerate seeral EV calcs out of Pust one of your hand histories. #ow>


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a) /hange your #olecards. !hat if your starting hand was FB instead of BC> 'oureuity should improe a little bit, which often has a ery significant impact on your EV.!hat if your starting hand was a little weaker> *igure out what the bottom of yourcalling range should be, then you know you can call with that and eery better hand.b) $weak Villains 7ange. !hat is his rier betting range is a little wider and weaker>

!hat if its a little tighter and stronger> !hat if its tighter but more polari"ed towardsnuts or air>c) /hange the bet si"e. !hat if he bet N1? pot on the rier instead of N? pot.

SPREADSHEET #2: EV Bet or Raise (All-in or River)

$his spreadsheet can be used in any situation where youre shoing all-in, or making a beton the rier. *or example, maybe you were facing a D-bet and debating whether to 1-bet

all-in preflop. Raybe you want to betA2bet all-in on the flop for thin alueAprotection, oryoure deciding whether to raise all-in on the turn oer illains bet. Raybe youredebating whether to make a thin alue bet on the rier, or fire a 2rd barrell with a busteddraw.

=ackground4 $he *old Euity EV *ormula

*or these situations, you will use the standard fold euity euation (een if youre notbluffing or semi-bluffing, but instead youre making a thin alue-bet, we still use thesame formula that is entered into this spreadsheet). $he entire euation is spelled outbelow if you want to understand where it comes from, but it is simplified and auto-calculating on the spreadsheet document. Fll you hae to do is enter in the ariables.

EV Bet = % Villain ol!s " Crrent Pot Si$e % Villain Calls " (&r E'it "

Aont *e *in - Villain+s E'it " Aont *e Ris,)

? Villain *olds is our *old Euity? Villain /alls 5 ( - *old Euity)Fmount !e !in 5 (/urrent :ot ;i"e < Villains /all ;i"e)9ur Euity is our hands euity s. the illains calling range only (not his entire range)Villains Euity 5 ( - 9ur Euity)Fmount !e 7isk 5 9ur =et ;i"e

=reaking this down further, we get4EV Bet = ol! E'it " Crrent Pot Si$e (1 - ol! E'it)"((&r E'it"(Crrent

Pot Si$e Villain+s Call Si$e) - (1 - &r E'it)"&r Bet Si$e))

'ou can see there are basically two sides to this euation. $he left side shows our EVwhen the illain folds to our bet or raise. 9ur EV of that part is going to be theprobability that the illain folds multiplied by the amount of dead money already in the


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pot that we will pick up.

$he right side shows the EV when the illain calls our bet. Een when he calls,sometimes we will win the pot, so we need to take account of 9ur Euity s. his callingrange multiplied by how much we win if he calls. !e then need to subtract from that

how much we lose multiplied by Villains Euity, or the probability that illain will winthe pot when he calls us. Fll of this of course will be multiplied by the probability thatthe illain does actually call us.

Sefinition of the ariables in the spreadsheet

Villains /all ;i"e is how much additional he has to call. *or example, if he bets 3 andyou raise to 23, he still owes 63.

Euity s. /alling range 5 our hands euity s. only the portion of his range he betAcallsor checkAcalls (exclude the betAfold hands or checkAfold hands in his earlier range)

Villains call si"e 5 how much additional money must he put in. *or example, if youdonk-lead for 13 on the rier, Pust enter 13. #oweer, if he was the initial better and leadsfor 33, and then you raise to 233, enter 633 because he only owes 633 more.

Q-*EQ or ( - *old Euity) is an auto-calculating formula already entered in for eachrow. 'ou do not need to enter anything in for this ariable.

Tetting ;tarted4

$he first example is already entered into row 6. Oets say illain bets 23 into a pot of 13on the turn, and you decide to semi-bluffraise all-in to G1 with a bare flush draw. 'ourQEuity s. calling rangeQ is going to be about G? with bare flush draw and only onecard to come. $he Q/urrent :ot ;i"e we stealQ if he folds will be J3 (the original 13 inthe pot < the 23 he Pust bet). Q9ur =et or 7aise ;i"eQ is G1. QVillains call si"eQ will be1 (he already put 23 in the pot, so he only owes 1 more to call). Kow lets say hesbluffing or betAfolding with D3 combos of hands, and hes alue-betting M calling a raisewith 3 combos of hands. 9ur *old Euity 5 D3A(D3 < 3) 5 D3?. ('oull see - *oldEuity auto-calculates to 3?).

'ou can see in this example that we hae a slightly


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SPREADSHEET #: EV Bet or Raise (.it/ one 0e/in!)

$his spreadsheet is almost the same as aboe, but this time after we make a bet (or raise),there is still room left in the stacks for the illain to raise our bet.

$he additional ariables are4

? 7aised4 this tells us the proportion of the illains range that he will raise with. (Kote4*old Euity < ? /alled < ? 7aised should all add up to 33? exactly)

7aise ;i"e4 #ow much does illain raise to when he raises>

Euity s. 7aising 7ange4 !hat is our hands euity s. the illains raising range>

'ou can see the examples for our different rier alue bet si"es from Video 2 are alreadyentered in to rows 6-1.

SCE33A4E&5S EV CA3C53AT&4 SPREADSHEETS

$he first three documents can each be used to handle seeral different situations in KO#Eand they will address a large percentage of the EV calcs youll need to do. Keertheless,the following documents are useful in some ery specific cases.

EV 7ier /heckback$his will tell you what our EV will be when we checkback a hand with some showdownalue on the rier. $his should be used in comparison with the QEV =et or 7aiseQ on therier to determine which line has the higher EV and is more profitable4 betting the rier,or checking back>

$he EV of a rier checkback is ery easy to calculate.EV check 5 /urrent :ot ;i"e 8 9ur Euity

In other words, what ? of the time is our hand good on the rier s. illains range, andhow much do we when when our hand is good.

$he EV should always be positie or 3. It will neer be negatie.

EV $urn /heckback$his one adds another layer to the aboe spreadsheet. $here are basically three differentpieces of the EV euation.a) when the rier will go check-check to showdownb) when the illain will lead the rierc) when the illain will check the rier and you will bet

$he indiidual EVs of each of the 2 scenarios are added together to find the total EV.


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EV rier check 99:$his is most useful when you are debating whether to make a ery thin rier alue bet99: or whether to check (and either checkAcall or checkAfold). $he EV of the thin aluebet can be determined using the EV =et or 7aise document outlined aboe.

#ere4EV rier check 99: 5 (? Villain checksback 8 9ur Euity s. his checkback range 8/urrent :ot ;i"e) < (? Villain bets 8 9ur EV when he bets)

9f course, our EV when he bets will be dependent on whether we are checkAcalling orcheckAfolding. If we are checkAfolding, then our EV when he bets 5 3. If we arecheckAcalling, then we need to use the EV /all document to find the EV when he bets.

If you hae uestions when using any of these spreadsheets, feel free to email Rike atneerbluffing23Ugmail.com.

Documents

Basic EV Calcs 101