39
1 BASF: Fit for 2012 and beyond Dr. Andreas Kreimeyer Member of the Board of Executive Directors Bank of America Merrill Lynch Conference, London December 07, 2011

BASF: Fit for 2012 and beyond · Industrial production > GDP Chemical production > GDP Emerging markets will outgrow ... Brazil Expanding gas production, Russia* 15% Stake in South

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    3

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: BASF: Fit for 2012 and beyond · Industrial production > GDP Chemical production > GDP Emerging markets will outgrow ... Brazil Expanding gas production, Russia* 15% Stake in South

1

BASF: Fit for 2012 and beyond

Dr. Andreas Kreimeyer Member of the Board of Executive Directors Bank of America Merrill Lynch Conference, London December 07, 2011

Page 2: BASF: Fit for 2012 and beyond · Industrial production > GDP Chemical production > GDP Emerging markets will outgrow ... Brazil Expanding gas production, Russia* 15% Stake in South

2

Facts & figures Worldwide leading chemical company

- Sales 2010: €64 billion

- EBIT before special items 2010: €8.1 billion

Customers in more than 200 countries and in virtually all industries

No 1-3 market position in over 75% of our businesses

Unique Verbund concept for integrated production

- Six Verbund sites in all major regions

- Production sites in 41 countries

High-quality management team

- Senior executives from 36 countries

International, interdisciplinary R&D network

BASF – The Chemical Company

Page 3: BASF: Fit for 2012 and beyond · Industrial production > GDP Chemical production > GDP Emerging markets will outgrow ... Brazil Expanding gas production, Russia* 15% Stake in South

3 3

1 | Business review

2 | BASF’s strategy ‘we create chemistry’

3 | Financial targets 2015 / 2020

Page 4: BASF: Fit for 2012 and beyond · Industrial production > GDP Chemical production > GDP Emerging markets will outgrow ... Brazil Expanding gas production, Russia* 15% Stake in South

4

Sales €55.4 billion +16.8% EBITDA €9.1 billion 7.8% EBITDA margin 16.4% 17.8% EBIT before special items (bSI) €6.9 billion 8.8% EBIT bSI adjusted for Libya €6.6 billion 21% EBIT €6.6 billion 9.5% Net income €5.1 billion 46.3% EPS €5.5 46.3% Adjusted EPS €5.2 20%

Business performance Jan - Sept’11 vs. Jan - Sept’10

Highlights January – September 2011

Volume in Chemicals activities grew by 4% Acquired Cognis business continues to perform strongly; synergy targets increased Agricultural Solutions on track for record year in sales and earnings EBIT before special items amounted to €6.9 billion. Excluding Libya, which contributed €938

million from Jan-Sept 2010, EBIT before special items increased by 21% to €6.6 billion

Page 5: BASF: Fit for 2012 and beyond · Industrial production > GDP Chemical production > GDP Emerging markets will outgrow ... Brazil Expanding gas production, Russia* 15% Stake in South

5

We expect to generate significantly higher sales We aim to significantly exceed the 2010 EBIT before special items

adjusted for non-compensable oil taxes (2010: €7.2 billion) We will earn a high premium on our cost of capital

Outlook 2011

Outlook 2011 confirmed

We aim to continuously increase the annual dividend, or at least maintain it at the level of the previous year.

Dividend policy

as of October 27, 2011; 3rd Quarter 2011 Reporting

Page 6: BASF: Fit for 2012 and beyond · Industrial production > GDP Chemical production > GDP Emerging markets will outgrow ... Brazil Expanding gas production, Russia* 15% Stake in South

6 6

1 | Business review

2 | BASF’s strategy ‘we create chemistry’

3 | Financial targets 2015 / 2020

Page 7: BASF: Fit for 2012 and beyond · Industrial production > GDP Chemical production > GDP Emerging markets will outgrow ... Brazil Expanding gas production, Russia* 15% Stake in South

7 7

BASF Today The leading chemical company

BASF outperformed global chemical production in growth by > 4 percentage points p.a. from 2001 to 2010

Active management of portfolio towards higher returns and less cyclicality

Strong and profitable growth in emerging markets

Focus on innovative products and solutions

Benchmark in operational excellence with unique Verbund concept

Strong earnings power, high cash flow generation and a strong financial profile

Generation of long-term attractive shareholder returns

Page 8: BASF: Fit for 2012 and beyond · Industrial production > GDP Chemical production > GDP Emerging markets will outgrow ... Brazil Expanding gas production, Russia* 15% Stake in South

8

Key trends for the chemical industry

Integrated chemical companies remain cornerstone

Emerging markets players grow quickly

Raw material players invest further downstream

Competitive landscape will change

Use opportunities from sustainability

Increase resource efficiency

Renewables as raw materials

Stakeholder dialogue

Sustainability as strategic driver

Chemistry as enabler

Chemical products replace traditional materials

Create innovative sustainable solutions

Innovation gains importance

Growth will accelerate

Industrial production > GDP

Chemical production > GDP

Emerging markets will outgrow developed markets

Chemical industry remains an attractive growth industry

Page 9: BASF: Fit for 2012 and beyond · Industrial production > GDP Chemical production > GDP Emerging markets will outgrow ... Brazil Expanding gas production, Russia* 15% Stake in South

9

Assumptions 2010 – 2020

Growth 2001 - 2010

Global GDP 2.5% p.a.

Chemical production (excl. Pharma) 3.0% p.a.

Industrial production 2.4% p.a.

Growth 2010 – 2020 (Forecast*)

3.0% p.a.

4.0% p.a.

3.8% p.a.

* Assumptions 2010-2020: US$/€ Ø 1.40. oil price Ø US$110/bbl

Page 10: BASF: Fit for 2012 and beyond · Industrial production > GDP Chemical production > GDP Emerging markets will outgrow ... Brazil Expanding gas production, Russia* 15% Stake in South

10

Striving for strong profitable growth

Sales* in billion €

64

2010 Target 2020

Target 2015

Investments

Acquisitions Innovations

Investments

Acquisitions Innovations

~85

~115

We will outperform chemical production by 2 percentage points p.a. * Potential impact of IFRS changes not included

Page 11: BASF: Fit for 2012 and beyond · Industrial production > GDP Chemical production > GDP Emerging markets will outgrow ... Brazil Expanding gas production, Russia* 15% Stake in South

11

All regions will deliver profitable growth

Regional sales targets 2020 (by location of customers) in billion €

North America

2010 2020

13

~5.5% p.a. ~22

South America, Africa, Middle East

~8% p.a.

5 ~11

Europe

~4.5% p.a.

33

~53

Asia Pacific

~8% p.a.

13 ~29

2010 2020

2010 2020 2010 2020

19%* 20%* 46%* 52%*

25%* 20%* 10%* 8%*

* Percentage of total sales

Page 12: BASF: Fit for 2012 and beyond · Industrial production > GDP Chemical production > GDP Emerging markets will outgrow ... Brazil Expanding gas production, Russia* 15% Stake in South

12

Doubling EBITDA by 2020

EBITDA in billion €

2010 Target 2020

Target 2015

* Assumptions 2010-2020: US$/€ Ø 1.40. oil price Ø US$110/bbl

11.1

~23

~15 Op. Excellence

Growth

Acquisitions

Op. Excellence

Growth

Acquisitions

Page 13: BASF: Fit for 2012 and beyond · Industrial production > GDP Chemical production > GDP Emerging markets will outgrow ... Brazil Expanding gas production, Russia* 15% Stake in South

13

Strategic levers

– Portfolio development

– Market approach

– Innovations for a sustainable future

– Investments

– Operational excellence

Page 14: BASF: Fit for 2012 and beyond · Industrial production > GDP Chemical production > GDP Emerging markets will outgrow ... Brazil Expanding gas production, Russia* 15% Stake in South

14

Moving downstream towards customer industries

Functionalized Materials & Solutions Customized Products Classical Chemicals

2020 in % of sales

Chemical Industry First customer industries*

2010 in % of sales

~ 40%

~30% ~ 70%

2001 in % of sales

~ 50%

~ 60%

~ 50%

* Agriculture, Construction, Consumer Goods, Health & Nutrition, Electronics, Energy & Resources, Transportation ** Sales without Oil & Gas

Page 15: BASF: Fit for 2012 and beyond · Industrial production > GDP Chemical production > GDP Emerging markets will outgrow ... Brazil Expanding gas production, Russia* 15% Stake in South

15

Building on our cross-divisional customer industry approach

BASF sales by first customer industry*

Bubble Size: BASF divisional sales by first customer industry (2010)**

* Excluding Oil & Gas and Other ** Excluding Agricultural Solutions, Health & Nutrition, Oil & Gas and Other

> 15 %

< 10 %

< 10 %

> 15 %

Inorganics Petro- Chemicals

Construction Chemicals

Dispersions & Pigments

Catalysts Intermediates Coatings Care Chemicals

Performance Polymers

Poly- urethanes

Performance Chemicals

Paper Chemicals

Consumer goods

Transportation

Construction

Energy & Resources

Page 16: BASF: Fit for 2012 and beyond · Industrial production > GDP Chemical production > GDP Emerging markets will outgrow ... Brazil Expanding gas production, Russia* 15% Stake in South

16

Combining cross-divisional technology competencies with customer know-how

Smart forvision – joint concept car of Daimler and BASF

E-textiles

Solar roof with transparent organic solar panels and OLED modules

Multifunctional seat

Infrared-reflective coating

Infrared-reflective film

High performance foams

Lightweight tridion cell

All-plastic wheel

Page 17: BASF: Fit for 2012 and beyond · Industrial production > GDP Chemical production > GDP Emerging markets will outgrow ... Brazil Expanding gas production, Russia* 15% Stake in South

17

Chemistry as an enabler for many customer industries

Sustainability in customer industries will drive our innovative growth fields

Health & Nutrition

Consumer Goods Construction Transportation Electronics Energy &

Resources Agriculture

Customer industries

Energy management

Water solutions

Wind energy

Rare earth metals

recycling

Heat management

Enzymes Plant biotechnology

Batteries for mobility

Lightweight composites

Heat management

Functional crop care

Medical Organic Electronics

Growth Fields*

*including growth fields still under evaluation

Ongoing inflow of new growth fields

Page 18: BASF: Fit for 2012 and beyond · Industrial production > GDP Chemical production > GDP Emerging markets will outgrow ... Brazil Expanding gas production, Russia* 15% Stake in South

18

Targeted €7 billion of EBITDA from innovations in 2020

Sales and EBITDA from innovations in billion €

2015 2020

~10

~30

Targeted spending of ~3% of sales (w/o Oil & Gas) p.a. on R&D

Sales from innovations launched within last 5 years

Sales from innovations launched within last 10 years

~2.5

~7 EBITDA from innovations launched within last 5 years

EBITDA from innovations launched within last 10 years

Page 19: BASF: Fit for 2012 and beyond · Industrial production > GDP Chemical production > GDP Emerging markets will outgrow ... Brazil Expanding gas production, Russia* 15% Stake in South

19

Investments will boost future organic growth

Future investments in € billlion

Thereof investments in emerging markets

Total investments

35-45%

15-20

30-40%

~15

2006 – 2010 2011 – 2015 2016 – 2020

10.9

~20%

Page 20: BASF: Fit for 2012 and beyond · Industrial production > GDP Chemical production > GDP Emerging markets will outgrow ... Brazil Expanding gas production, Russia* 15% Stake in South

20

Emerging markets: 45% sales target 2020 Recently announced major projects

MDI plant Chongqing, China Expansion Verbund site Nanjing* Expansion Verbund site Kuantan*

Acrylic acid complex, Brazil Expanding gas production, Russia* 15% Stake in South Stream * Memoranda of Understanding signed

Page 21: BASF: Fit for 2012 and beyond · Industrial production > GDP Chemical production > GDP Emerging markets will outgrow ... Brazil Expanding gas production, Russia* 15% Stake in South

21

New operational excellence program “STEP”: Earnings contribution ~€1 billion

Annual earnings contribution in € million

Optimization of processes, structures and production sites in all regions

Measures: – Fixed cost savings – Margin improvement – Capacity increase – Better sourcing

Project timeline: 2012 - 2015 Targeted earnings contribution of

about €1 billion by end of 2015

STrategic Excellence Program

Former cost saving programs NEXT STEP

Annual earnings contribution of more than €1 billion in 2012 will be achieved

New EXcellence Targets

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

2012 2015

Page 22: BASF: Fit for 2012 and beyond · Industrial production > GDP Chemical production > GDP Emerging markets will outgrow ... Brazil Expanding gas production, Russia* 15% Stake in South

22 22

1 | Business review

2 | BASF’s strategy ‘we create chemistry’

3 | Financial targets 2015 / 2020

Page 23: BASF: Fit for 2012 and beyond · Industrial production > GDP Chemical production > GDP Emerging markets will outgrow ... Brazil Expanding gas production, Russia* 15% Stake in South

23

Key financial targets 2015 / 2020

Grow at least 2 percentage points above chemical production

Earn a premium on cost of capital of at least €2.5 billion on average p.a.

Profitability targets Growth targets

2015

2020

Sales ~€85 billion

Sales ~€115 billion

EBITDA ~€15 billion

Double EBITDA to ~€23 billion (compared with 2010)

Page 24: BASF: Fit for 2012 and beyond · Industrial production > GDP Chemical production > GDP Emerging markets will outgrow ... Brazil Expanding gas production, Russia* 15% Stake in South

24

Our strategy will create shareholder value

Earnings per share in €

Business growth 1.30

4.96

2002 2010

0.5

0.9

0.8

1.5 Margin

Tax rate

Share buy-back

Target 2015

~7.5

„STEP“

Share buy-back

Growth

Page 25: BASF: Fit for 2012 and beyond · Industrial production > GDP Chemical production > GDP Emerging markets will outgrow ... Brazil Expanding gas production, Russia* 15% Stake in South

25

This presentation includes forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties, including those pertaining to the anticipated benefits to be realized from the proposals described herein. This presentation contains a number of forward-looking statements including, in particular, statements about future events, future financial performance, plans, strategies, expectations, prospects, competitive environment, regulation and supply and demand. BASF has based these forward-looking statements on its views with respect to future events and financial performance. Actual financial performance of the entities described herein could differ materially from that projected in the forward-looking statements due to the inherent uncertainty of estimates, forecasts and projections, and financial performance may be better or worse than anticipated. Given these uncertainties, readers should not put undue reliance on any forward-looking statements.

Forward-looking statements represent estimates and assumptions only as of the date that they were made. The information contained in this presentation is subject to change without notice and BASF does not undertake any duty to update the forward-looking statements, and the estimates and assumptions associated with them, except to the extent required by applicable laws and regulations.

Forward-looking statements

Page 26: BASF: Fit for 2012 and beyond · Industrial production > GDP Chemical production > GDP Emerging markets will outgrow ... Brazil Expanding gas production, Russia* 15% Stake in South

We create chemistry

Page 27: BASF: Fit for 2012 and beyond · Industrial production > GDP Chemical production > GDP Emerging markets will outgrow ... Brazil Expanding gas production, Russia* 15% Stake in South

27 27

Backup BASF Today

Page 28: BASF: Fit for 2012 and beyond · Industrial production > GDP Chemical production > GDP Emerging markets will outgrow ... Brazil Expanding gas production, Russia* 15% Stake in South

28 28

Outperformed global chemical production by 4 percentage points p.a.

Sales to third parties in billion €

BASF total growth 7.8% p.a.

BASF volumes + M&A 6.6% p.a.

BASF volumes 4.1% p.a.

Global chemical production 3.0% p.a.

30

60

20

50

40

Prices

12

33

Volumes

14

64

M&A

11

Currencies

–6

70

2001 2010

Page 29: BASF: Fit for 2012 and beyond · Industrial production > GDP Chemical production > GDP Emerging markets will outgrow ... Brazil Expanding gas production, Russia* 15% Stake in South

29 29

€9bn (Sales excl. planned

measures)

Portfolio development towards more market driven and innovative businesses

Acquisitions

Crop protection Engineering plastics Electronic chemicals Custom synthesis Catalysts Construction chemicals Water-based coatings Pigments Plastic additives Oil & Gas Personal care & food

€15bn (Sales)

BASF core business

Strong partnerships

Gazprom Monsanto Petronas Shell Sinopec Total

Divestitures

Pharma Fibers Printing systems Polyolefins Polystyrene Americas Agro generics Vitamins premix Fertilizers (planned) Styrolution (planned)

Selected transactions 2001 − today

Page 30: BASF: Fit for 2012 and beyond · Industrial production > GDP Chemical production > GDP Emerging markets will outgrow ... Brazil Expanding gas production, Russia* 15% Stake in South

30 30

Strong and profitable growth in emerging markets

2001

28%

34%

2010

53

28

Developed markets* Emerging markets *BASF definition: Developed markets include EU15, Norway, Switzerland, North America, Japan, Australia, New Zealand

22%

2001

34%

2010

8.2

2.5

25%

Sales BASF Group excluding Oil & Gas in billion € by location of customer

EBITDA BASF Group excluding Oil & Gas in billion € by location of customer

0

20

40

60

0

2

4

6

8

10

Page 31: BASF: Fit for 2012 and beyond · Industrial production > GDP Chemical production > GDP Emerging markets will outgrow ... Brazil Expanding gas production, Russia* 15% Stake in South

31 31

Strong focus on operational excellence

BASF Group 2001–2010 Index

2001 2004 2007 2010

CAGR

12 %

8 %

2 %

EBITDA

Sales

Fixed costs

50

100

150

200

250

300

Page 32: BASF: Fit for 2012 and beyond · Industrial production > GDP Chemical production > GDP Emerging markets will outgrow ... Brazil Expanding gas production, Russia* 15% Stake in South

32

*Cash provided by operating activities less capex

**Before external financing of pension obligations

Continuous strong free cash flow generation

Free cash flow* in billion €

-0.5

2.8 2.6

3.3** 3.5 3.2 2.5

-0.1

3.2 3.9

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Page 33: BASF: Fit for 2012 and beyond · Industrial production > GDP Chemical production > GDP Emerging markets will outgrow ... Brazil Expanding gas production, Russia* 15% Stake in South

33 33

Backup Business development Q3 2011

Page 34: BASF: Fit for 2012 and beyond · Industrial production > GDP Chemical production > GDP Emerging markets will outgrow ... Brazil Expanding gas production, Russia* 15% Stake in South

34

Chemicals Significant sales growth driven by strong price increases

Intermediates 671 +4%

Inorganics 356

+11%

Petrochemicals 2,141 +12%

€3,168 +10%

617537

765674

621

0

200

400

600

800

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

Sales development Period Volumes Prices Portfolio Currencies

Q3’11 vs. Q3’10 (3)% 18% 0% (5)%

Q3’11 segment sales (million €) vs. Q3’10 EBIT before special items (million €)

2010 2011

Page 35: BASF: Fit for 2012 and beyond · Industrial production > GDP Chemical production > GDP Emerging markets will outgrow ... Brazil Expanding gas production, Russia* 15% Stake in South

35

Plastics Sales up mainly due to a strong Performance Polymers business

Polyurethanes 1,480 +2%

Performance Polymers

1,321 +16%

€2,801+8%

371

285

393 383

317

0

200

400

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

Sales development Period Volumes Prices Portfolio Currencies

Q3’11 vs. Q3’10 2% 10% 0% (4)%

Q3’11 segment sales (million €) vs. Q3’10 EBIT before special items (million €)

2010 2011

Page 36: BASF: Fit for 2012 and beyond · Industrial production > GDP Chemical production > GDP Emerging markets will outgrow ... Brazil Expanding gas production, Russia* 15% Stake in South

36

Sales development Period Volumes Prices Portfolio Currencies

Q3’11 vs. Q3’10 (2%) 7% 23% (4)%

Performance Products Strong contributions from acquired Cognis businesses

370294

554513

440

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

Performance Chemicals

904 +9%

Care Chemicals 1,265 +85%

€3,991 +24%

Paper Chemicals 423 -6%

Q3’11 segment sales (million €) vs. Q3’10 EBIT before special items (million €)

Nutrition & Health 471 +32% Dispersions

& Pigments 928

+5%

2010 2011

Page 37: BASF: Fit for 2012 and beyond · Industrial production > GDP Chemical production > GDP Emerging markets will outgrow ... Brazil Expanding gas production, Russia* 15% Stake in South

37

Sales development Period Volumes Prices Portfolio Currencies

Q3’11 vs. Q3’10 4% 11% 3% (6)%

Functional Solutions Strong performance of Catalysts

Catalysts 1,608 +19%

Construction Chemicals

599 0%

Coatings 700

+9%

€2,907 +12%

158

33

142167 162

0

50

100

150

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

Q3’11 segment sales (million €) vs. Q3’10 EBIT before special items (million €)

2010 2011

Page 38: BASF: Fit for 2012 and beyond · Industrial production > GDP Chemical production > GDP Emerging markets will outgrow ... Brazil Expanding gas production, Russia* 15% Stake in South

38

Agricultural Solutions On track for record year in sales and earnings

66

95

0

50

100

150

Q3 Q3

Q3’11 segment sales (million €) vs. Q3’10 EBIT before special items (million €)

2011 2010

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

Q3 Q32011 2010

Sales development Period Volumes Prices Portfolio Currencies

Q3’11 vs. Q3’10 12% 3% 0% (6)%

832 908

Page 39: BASF: Fit for 2012 and beyond · Industrial production > GDP Chemical production > GDP Emerging markets will outgrow ... Brazil Expanding gas production, Russia* 15% Stake in South

39

272 225

0

200

400

600

Q3 Q3

Exploration & Production 534 -39%

Natural Gas Trading

1,661 +23%

€2,195-1%

Sales development Period Volumes Prices/Currencies Portfolio

Q3’11 vs. Q3’10 (25)% 24% 0%

EBIT bSI Natural Gas Trading EBIT bSI Exploration & Production Net income

Q3’11 segment sales (million €) vs. Q3’10 EBIT before special items/ Net income (million €)

2011 2010

503 227

573

350

Non-compensable oil taxes 224

70 123

Oil & Gas EBIT before SI on last year’s level (adjusted for non-compensable oil taxes)