Based on Barry Eichengreens article Innovation and Integration:
Europes Economy Since 1945
Slide 2
EUROPES ECONOMY SINCE 1945 INTRODUCTION 2nd half of the 20th
century was a period of unparalleled growth in Europe: Real GDP per
capita more than tripled in the Western countries and more than
doubled in the Eastern countries Quality of life improved hours
worked per year declined by more than one-third giving way to
leisure time and lengthening life expectantcy However unemployment
rose over the period and taxes also soared BUT, by any standard,
Europeans are better off today than their parents and
grandparents
Slide 3
Introduction (cont.) Southern Europe grew faster than Northern
Europe Western Europe grew faster than Eastern Europe Growth was
faster in the 2 decades before 1973 than the 2 decades after
HOWEVER, the postwar period is regarded as the golden age of
economic growth
Slide 4
Introduction (cont.) 2 exogenous conditions stimulated growth
in the second half of the 20th century: 1. Backlog of unexploited
technological and organizational knowledge with which Europe
entered the period Military had to innovate to survive the world
wars (for ex. t had to invent jet engines, radar and computing) 2.
The great power conflict between the USA and Soviet Union forcing
countries to conform to the form of economic organization as their
dominant partner Their choice determined their subsequent economic
performance Western Europe Market Capitalism Eastern Europe State
Socialism
Slide 5
Introduction (cont.) Principal Features of the International
Economic Environment of the Postwar Period: Marshall Plan Bretton
Woods International Monetary System General Agreement on Tariffs
and Trade These were all molded by the US Soviet conflict
Slide 6
Exogenous Actions Endogenous Processes To the 2 exogenous
actions there were 2 reactions 2 endogenous processes 1. Transition
from extensive to intensive growth Extensive growth: growing on the
basis of known technologies raising output by putting more people
to work at familiar tasks and raising labor productivity by
building more factories along the lines of existing ones Rising
capital/labor ration = extensive growth Intensive growth: growth
through innovation Europe relied more on extensive growth before
1973 and more on intensive growth thereafter
Slide 7
Extensive Growth Facilitated by the backlog of technology Less
important to innovate so long as there were known technologies
still to be acquired and commercialized Easy as long as there were
elastic supplies of labor (refugees from the east; repatriates from
the colonies; underemployed workers from the agricultural perihery)
who could be added to the industrial labor force without putting
upward pressure on wages
Slide 8
Extensive Growth (cont.) Extensive growth was what planned
economies organized on Soviet lines did best Government decides how
many factories to build; directs state banks to mobilize the
resources; limits consumption to what is left; decides what foreign
technologies to acquire... This was a successful strategy for
Eastern European countries for a while The more successfully
European countries pursued this model, the more quickly they
exhausted the backlog of technological and organizational
knowledge
Slide 9
Extensive Growth (cont.) As European countries depleted backlog
of technology and organizational knowledge they were forced to
switch to intensive growth The centrally-planned economies were the
least good at innovation because new knowledge bubbled up from
below instead of raining from above This became a problem for the
centrally planned economies once the technology was used and the
labor force was fully employed
Slide 10
Exogenous Actions Endogenous Processes (cont.) 2. European
Integration Globalization for Europe meant regional integration
European integration was encouraged by the U.S. To fight off the
Soviet influence The Soviet Union prohibited the participation of
Eastern European countries to integrate with Western Europe
Slide 11
How Can Europe Avoid Another War? The Question and Ideologies
The solution to this problem differed on beliefs about the cause of
WWII and the three schools of thought in existence were: Germany
was to blame: The so-called Morgenthau plan of 1944 proposed to
avoid future war by turning Germany into a country primarily
agricultural and pastoral in nature. The same thinking existed
after WWI where the victors were rewarded with German territories
and financial reparations this led to the German cycle of
resentment and economic downturn that led to WWII Capitalism was to
blame: Marxism-Leninism blamed capitalism for WWI and II and
offered communism as a solution Nationalism was to blame: Excesses
of destructive nationalism was blamed for the war and European
integration was offered as a solution The 3rd view ultimately
prevailed but this was far from clear in the 1940s
Slide 12
European Integration (cont.) Before 1913 Western Europe was at
the heart of the global trade and financial system World War I
(1914-1918) disrupted this The Bolshevik Revolution (1917) and the
Treaty of Versailles (1919) also disrupted trade and finance World
War II (1939-1945) also had negative effects Europe had to rebuild
its international economic position from a very unfavorable
starting point
Slide 13
PHASES OF GROWTH, 1820-1992
Slide 14
Europes Economic Growth Western Europe (Austria, Belgium,
Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Norway,
Sweden, Switzerland and the UK) during 1950-1975 grew twice as fast
as 1820-1970 Southern Europe (Greece, Portugal, Spain, Turkey and
Ireland) acceleration and decelaration is more dramatic Eastern
Europe (Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Poland, Romania,
Yugoslavia and the USSR) grew faster than Western Europe before
1973 because this region lagged behind the West in the 19th century
Growth halts after 1973 not evident in any other region
Slide 15
Per Capital Real GDP Growth in 56 Countries, 1820-1992
Slide 16
European Growth (cont.) Per Capita GDP Growth = (Rate of Growth
of Output) (Rate of Growth of Population) Per Capita GDP Growth is
a better measure of the change in living standards Western Europe
fares better due to lower rates of population growth Out of the 12
Western European countries extensive growth was fastest in Germany,
Austria and Italy The slowest in the UK after 1973 the UK continued
to underperform the W. European average 1973-1992 : period of
intensive growth Switzerland, Sweden and the Netherlands performed
even worse
Slide 17
European Growth (cont.) Southern Europe: Greece and Iberia
(Spain and Portugal) performed better than Turkey and Ireland But
the post-1973 slowdown was the least dramatic in Turkey and Ireland
(best performers in S. Europe in the years of intensive growth)
Eastern Europe: Growth of output per capita was relatively uniform
reflects the heavy hand of planning In the extensive growth years
it was the slowest in those countries that started out with high
levels of output per person (Czechoslovakia and the USSR) Central
planning and state trading were important in this convergence
Intensive growth years led to stagnation in the region
Slide 18
Economic Impact of WWII WWII destroyed economic capacity
(persons, factories, farms, roads, bridges,...) and economic
relations Roads and etc. could still be fixed but economic
organization was interrupted During and after the war: There was
rationing and controls Labor and raw materials were directed to
production of critical commodities Wages were frozen Government
froze the prices of consumer goods like food, fuel and clothing and
rationed purchases Banks were regulated Commodity imports and
capital exports were controlled
Slide 19
Effects of Rationing...
Slide 20
Early Post-War Period In 1945 a family almost anywhere in
Europe found themselves in a nation which was or had recently been:
Ruled by a brutal fascist dictator Occupied by a foreign army OR
Both As a result of these governmental failures thens of millions
of Europeans were dead and Europes economy lay in ruins The 2nd WW
was the fourth time in 130 years that France and Germany were at
the core of increasingly horrifying wars
Slide 21
Aftermath of WWII (Germany 1945)
Slide 22
Aftermath of WWII (London 1944)
Slide 23
Death and Destruction in WWII Death Toll Pre-war year when GDP
equalled that of 1945 Austria525.0001886 Belgium82.7501924
Denmark4.2501936 Finland79.0001938 France505.7501891
Germany6.363.0001908 Italy355.5001909 Netherlands250.0001912
Norway10.2501937 Sweden0 GDP grew during WWII Switzerland0 GDP grew
during WWII UK325.000 GDP grew during WWII Source: Baldwin &
Wyplosz, p. 5)
Slide 24
Europe, Post-WWII
Slide 25
Economic Effects of WWII (cont.) At the conclusion of
hostilities, industrial production was no more than 40% of prewar
levels in Belgium, France and the Netherlands and less than 20% in
Germany and Italy From this position it was possible to boost
output quickly by restoring essential infrastructure and freeing
resources for peacetime use
Slide 26
Production in Western Europe
Slide 27
Rebuilding Europe Building infrastructure was the easy part
Making growth self-sustaining was a difficult task 3 obstacles to
self-sustaining growth: 1. Resource bottlenecks 2. Price controls
3. Political uncertainty
Slide 28
1. Resource Bottlenecks Europe tried to increase its industrial
capacity Due to national security issues industries like steel and
iron were given priority Governments wanted to increase output and
capacity Problem was that Europe produced limited inputs of capital
goods in this process
Slide 29
1. Resource Bottlenecks (cont.) Germany was the traditional
producer and exporter of capital goods and its production was now
limited by the occupying powers Inputs could still be purchased
from the U.S. but only for dollars By 1947 Europe had no dollar
reserves Since inputs need to come before outputs Europe could not
use its exports to finance inputs Borrowing abroad was not possible
due to the uncertain political situation
Slide 30
2. Price Controls So long as prices of goods were frozen below
free- market levels, producers had little incentive to bring their
goods to market For ex. They fattened their cows instead of
slaughtering them Workers were not able to purchase goods so they
spent their time not at work but with other activities Black market
took off as governments ran deficits and printed money If
governments left their control, then inflation would come
about
Slide 31
3. Political Uncertainty Communists had key positions in French
and Italian governments in 1947 Denmark had a weak minority
government UK had embarked upon industrial nationalization It was
not clear that governments in these countries would respect private
property, resist to temptation impose taxes and let markets
work
Slide 32
Nationalization in Britain...
Slide 33
Rebuilding Europe (cont.) Because of resource bottlenecks,
price controls and political uncertainty, there were no individual
investments, bank lending was minimal and companies did not invest
in training their employees
Slide 34
Marshall Plan Aid initiative launched by the US in 1947 removed
all of these obstacles U.S. Provided $13 billion of U.S. Government
grants over a period of 4 years This solved the problem of having
to export to import but unable to import without first exporting
Countries accepting Marshall Plan aid had t osign bilateral pacts
with the U.S. Agreeing to: Decontrol prices Stabilize exchange
rates Balance their budgets This prepared them for the market
economy
Slide 35
Marshall Plan Map of Cold- War era Europe and the Near East
showing countries that received Marshall Plan aid. The red columns
show the relative amount of total aid per nation.
Slide 36
Marshall Plan (cont.) Helped to resolve political uncertainty
by tipping the balance of political power toward centrist parties
The US did not want to give aid to socialist governments so
countries with communist and socialist governments saw the exit of
these politicians Marshall Plan was the choice between plan and
market The Plans effects on price decontrol were immediate: Stores
empty one day were fully stocked the next day Absenteeism among
workers fell Import restrictions were slowly lifted
Slide 37
Marshall Plan (cont.) The Plan became the choice between plan
and market USSR refused to allow its satellites to take any
aid
Slide 38
Marshall Plan (cont.) Those nations accepting Marshall Plan aid
saw the exit of socialist and communist politicians and
policies...
Slide 39
Marshall Plan (cont.) Also encouraged European integration U.S.
Aid was given on the basis of a collective strategy for using the
funds Marshall planners envisioned a United States of Europe where
war would be inconceivable European integration was a way of
reconciling other countries, France in particular to higher levels
of German industrial production and Of disarming those who insisted
on pastoralizing the German economy Marshall Plan helped to
eliminate ceilings on German industrial production and cancelling
its debt due to reparations Germany could now go back to being the
heart of the European economy
Slide 40
Marshall Plan (cont.) As seen vividly in this poster for
Marshall Plan aid, the aim was European integration...
Slide 41
Marshall Plan (cont.) Marshall planners also wanted to
stimulate Europes trade In the immediate postwar years, there was
bilateral trade But bilateral trade agreements made it hard to move
towards the free-market (multilateralism) However, liberalization
needed to be taken by all of the European countries at once. If one
liberalized and others did not, that one country would be flooded
with imports THIS PUT THE MARSHALL PLAN IN JEOPARDY!
Slide 42
European Payments Union (EPU) Each countrys net balances with
each other country were reported at the end of each month to the
Bank for International Settlements the EPUs fiscal agent which
cancelled ofsetting claims Countrys now had liabilities/claims not
on other countries but on the EPU as a whole Countries no longer
cared who they did trade with Countries could also run temporary
deficits
Slide 43
European Payments Union (cont.) U.S. Contributed $350 million
of Marshall Plan funds to the EPU This helped to stimulate trade
(from $10 billion in 1950 to $23 billion in 1959) Also made sure
that Germany committed to free and open trade EPU was a stepping
stone toward collective governance The next move towards collective
governance was the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC) Laid
the seeds for the European Economic Community
Slide 44
European Payments Union (cont.) AB C Exports Total Payments:
1820 100 120 290 320 520 470 A B C 20 30 40 Bilateral Settlements
Total payments: 90 EPU AB C 10 20 10 Clearing Total Payments:
40
Slide 45
Investment and the Labor Market If trade was needed for
European growth, the second thing that was needed was investment
Plant and equipment were needed to implement new technology
requires investment Countries used their money differently, for
ex.: Norway used its money to rebuild its infrastructure Belgium
used its money to keep declining industries alive Countries with
high returns on investment experienced high rates of growth of the
labor force
Slide 46
Investment and the Labor Market (cont.) Payoff on investment
high where ther is expanding labor force with which additional
capital could be put to work Growing labor force also helped curb
wage increases Firms could put the money saved back into the
company as investment
Slide 47
Investment and the Labor Market (cont.) Germany had expanding
labor force due to East Germany until the erection of the Berlin
Wall Netherlands had expanding labor force due to the return of
Dutch settlers from the East Indies colonies France and Italy
underemployed agricultural workers had the same effect as they
shifted to manufacturing and services
Slide 48
Postwar Social Contract European societies also developed
corporatist structures to restrain wage growth and see that profits
were put back into investment Governments wanted to guarantee that
the union strikes over wages and work conditions would not happen
again They needed to guarantee to the unions that in exchange for a
limit on their wage demands, the industrialists would put the
profit they received back into the firm Governments were concerned
that if unions pursued wage increases and management paid out
profits, investment and growth would suffer
Slide 49
Postwar Social Contract (cont.) Government implemented a series
of negotiations with capital and labor resulting in a few different
institutions: 1. Firms agreed (by law) to put profits back into the
firm and workers had more say (both in supervisory boarda dn
investment policies of firms) This was the set of institutions that
monitored the compliance of the parties to their agreement to
exchange wage moderation for the reinvestment of profits
Slide 50
Postwar Social Contract (cont.) 2. The second set of
institutions created bonds that would be lost in the event that
either party reneged on its agreement Firms received industrial
input from government at submarket prices, investment-friendly
monetary policies were implemented by the central banks to
encourage more investment Labor was also bonded by a parallel set
of government programs: paid vacations, limited work hours and
social security structures were adopted in exchange for wage
restraint sick pay, retirement incomes, tax and social insurance
concessions...
Slide 51
Postwar Social Contract (cont.) 3. Third set of institutions
coordinated bargains across firms and sectors Bargaining was
centralized in the hands of a trade union federation and national
employers association and governments intervened to harmonize the
terms of the bargains reached by different unions and employers
Departure from laissez-faire There was a shift from low-production
agriculture to high-productivity manufacturing and services in the
Western European countries
Slide 52
Eastern Europe and the Planned Economy Eastern Europe was more
heavily agricultural than the West Eastern European State Planning
Offices saw the expansion of the industry as the most direct way of
raising labor productivity Government did not support agriculture
like the West did In fact, Eastern European planners set lower
prices for agriculture and high prices for manufacturing to shift
labor
Slide 53
Eastern Europe and the Planned Economy (cont.) During the 1950s
Eastern Europe started to report impressive rates of growth
However, those produced were not always of good quality By 1949
most major branches of industry and finance were owned and operated
by the state they allocated a majority of their investment to
industry However, they built along the lines of existing factories
(extensive growth) innovation was not rewarded
Slide 54
Achievements and Limitations of Central Planning The Cold War
and Stalinist ideology led planners to push the industrialization
process too far Traditionally Central and Eastern Europe had been
the continents agricultural resource Planners starved these regions
of these resources Light crafts (like cobblers, masons,
balcksmiths, tailors...) also began to dissapear In the West,
increases in output also meant increases in living standards this
was less so in Eastern Europe
Slide 55
Achievements and Limitations of Central Planning (cont.)
Resources were wasted in central planning since managers protected
themselves against the risk of missing production by over-ordering
raw materials and employing too many people This over-production
did not improve the quality of the goods produced or the variety
(ex. The Hungarian footwear industry in the 1950s produced just 16
different types of shoes)
Slide 56
Achievements and Limitations of Central Planning (cont.) Public
dissatisfaction, Stalins death and a slow-down of growth led
planners to experiment with decentralizing the planning mechanism
Managers were given more freedom and given rewards on economizing
resources However, this did not increase innovation Also, prices at
home and abroad where free-market principles dominated made free
trade with the rest of the world difficult if not impossible
Slide 57
Achievements and Limitations of Central Planning (cont.)
Self-sufficiency was also not desirable since each country had
different resources The solution was to encourage trade within the
Eastern Bloc The Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA) or
Comecon was established in reaction to Western European integration
under the Marshall Plan
Slide 58
CMEA / Comecon
Slide 59
CMEA / Comecon (cont.) CMEAs founding members: Bulgaria,
Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Poland, Romania and the Soviet Union (in
1949) East Germany joined in 1950 Moscows idea: Czechoslovakia and
E. Germany: concentrate on the production and export of industrial
goods Romania and countries like it: concentrate on agriculture in
international socialist division of labor Romanian leadership was
not pleased Relations within the CMEA were strained However,
intra-bloc trade expanded under the CMEA
Slide 60
CMEA / Comecon (cont.) A Soviet poster reading "COMECON: Unity
of Goals, Unity of Action"
Slide 61
Regional Integration in Western Europe Eastern Blocs commitment
to Comecon was strengthened by regional integration in the West
Western European Integration: European Economic Community,
established in 1958 allowing free trade among France, Germany,
Italy and the Benelux countries in less than 10 years Free trade
allowed these countries to specialize in goods they had a
comparative advantage in and to better exploit economies of scale
and scope It eroded the power of monopolies and cartels forcing
sheltered producers to shape up or ship out
Slide 62
Regional Integration in Western Europe (cont.) U.K. Declined to
join the EEC rejecting the Franco- German call for deeper
integration Yet, attraction of a Common Market, proved irresistable
and Britain and 6 smaller European countries (Austria, Denmark,
Norway, Portugal, Sweden and Switzerland) established the European
Free Trade Area (EFTA) in 1959 a more limited entity Finalnd joined
in 1961, Portugal also joined at a later date Spain and Greece
negotiated with the EEC and the EEC chose to open itself to these 2
countries Growth accelerated in both the EEC and EFTA
Slide 63
Regional Integration in Western Europe (cont.) Britain remained
the sick man of Europe The corporatist system of wage restraint
never took hold in Britain This was due to early industrialization
which had left behind a fragmented system of industrial relations
Many small trade unions fought the efforts to coordinate an
economy-wide wage bargain Poor wage constraint, resistance to the
introduction of new technologies and forms of work organization
produced poor results for Britain Britain had the lowest investment
rates in Western Europe Government tried to get additional output
but it led to inflation and balance-of-payments deficit so the
authorities raised interest rates
Slide 64
Economics of Intensive Growth As the backlog of technology
inherited from WWII dissapeared, the challenge became to innovate
new products and processes The U.S. Had a leg up on this process.
In 1963 it devoted 3.5% of its GDP to R&D spending. By the
mid-1960s the U.S. Was spending 5 times as much as all of Western
Europe on R&D in the computer industry European governments
took steps to close the gap With increased spending the countries
of Western Europe increased their share of global exports of
research-intensive goods