Baron Hurricane Index Atlantic Case Studies NOAA SBIR Phase II · Baron Hurricane Index Atlantic Case Studies NOAA SBIR Phase II 7/18/2013 1 . Hurricane Katrina August 24, 2005 Advisory

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Baron Hurricane Index Atlantic Case Studies

NOAA SBIR Phase II

7/18/2013 1

Hurricane Katrina August 24, 2005

Advisory 4

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Hurricane Katrina at the time of Advisory 4 had just reached tropical storm strength with 35 knot winds. The 5 day forecast track predicted Katrina would track over Florida and into the northeast section of the Gulf of Mexico. The uncertainty cone, however was quite large. Katrina’s track wound up following the southern and western edge of the forecast track, and spent less time over Florida, and more time in the warm water of the central Gulf of Mexico. Katrina reached a peak intensity of 150 knots, more than 4 days after this advisory. With weak shear, very hot SST, and substantial Ocean Heat Content, Katrina tracked across the BHI section of “Highly Favorable” conditions in the forecast cone for most of its life.

Hurricane Katrina Advisory 04 August 24, 2005, 1200 UTC

INIT IAL 24/1500Z 24.7N 76.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 25/0000Z 25.4N 77.4W 40 KT 24HR VT 25/1200Z 25.9N 78.4W 45 KT 36HR VT 26/0000Z 26.0N 79.2W 55 KT 48HR VT 26/1200Z 26.1N 80.1W 65 KT 72HR VT 27/1200Z 26.3N 82.5W 40 KT 96HR VT 28/1200Z 27.0N 84.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 29/1200Z 29.0N 86.0W 65 KT

Advisory 4 INITIAL was issued as Katrina’s position was east of The Bahamas at 00Z on 8/24/05. At Katrina’s current position, Wind Shear is Low, SST is hot, and Ocean Heat Content is High. Therefore, the BHI algorithm indicates that Katrina is entering an environment that is “Highly Favorable” for strengthening. (NOTE: BHI data is only valid for this single point in time.) ACTUAL: Katrina is a borderline Tropical Storm with 35 knot winds.

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NHC Forecast Track

Actual Track



FORECAST: Advisory 4 24HR is a FORECAST for Katrina’s position and strength at 12z on 8/25/05. Katrina is in an environment of Low Shear, hot SST, and high Ocean Heat Content putting Katrina in “Highly Favorable” conditions for intensification. (NOTE: BHI data is only valid for this single point in time.) ACTUAL: Katrina strengthened to 55 knots in only 24 hours time.

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NHC Forecast Track

Actual Track



FORECAST: Advisory 4 72HR is a FORECAST for Katrina’s position and strength at 12z on 8/27/05. Katrina was forecast to cross Florida and lose strength. The environment west of Florida has Moderate Shear, hot SST, and low Ocean Heat Content forecasting Katrina in “Favorable” conditions for intensification. (NOTE: BHI data is only valid for this single point in time.) ACTUAL: Katrina strengthened to 100 knots. Katrina’s real track went further south, across less land, and then over the “Highly Favorable” region of BHI.

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NHC Forecast Track

Actual Track

FORECAST: Advisory 4 96HR is a FORECAST for Katrina’s position and strength at 12z on 8/28/05. The environment has Low to Moderate Shear, hot SST, and no Ocean Heat Content effect, placing Katrina in “Favorable” conditions for intensification. Notice however, the southern edge of the Forecast Cone is indicating “Highly Favorable” Conditions for intensification due to very high Ocean Heat Content in the central Gulf along with lower shear. (NOTE: BHI data is only valid for this single point in time.) ACTUAL: Katrina strengthened from 100 knots to 145 knots in only 24-hours, and peaking at 150 knots 6 hours later. Katrina’s actual track went further south and west over the “Highly Favorable” region of BHI.

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NHC Forecast Track

Actual Track

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Baron Hurricane Index Atlantic Case Studies NOAA SBIR Phase II · Baron Hurricane Index Atlantic Case Studies NOAA SBIR Phase II 7/18/2013 1 . Hurricane Katrina August 24, 2005 Advisory