Banking in Serbia

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Banking in SerbiaAlexander Picker

CEOUniCredit Bank Serbia

May 2007


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Alexander Picker 2

May 2007

Contents: Qestions to be ans!ered

"#o is talking to yo$

"#at is t#e essence o% banking$ "#at does a bank sell$

"#at are t#e trends in t#e !orld$

"#ere is Serbia$


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"#o is talking to yo $Section '


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May 2007

MA)* S+,UC+U,A- .)/U,ES

UniCredit is a +rly Eroean Bank 1

Eloyees o3er '&(4000

Cstoers: o3er &5 n

Branc#es: o3er 74000

6eosits and debt secrities inisse: (75 bn

-oans: (&0 bn

Banking oerations in

20 contries

/lobal layer in Asset Manageent: 2&8 bn AM

'(t# bank !orld9!ide in ters o% MarketCaitaliation


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Countries where the Group operates via its own branches, representative offices, small banking subsidiaries, or investment centers (Pioneer)

Countries where the Group operates via local banks controlled or in which it has a significant equity interest

1 !it# an extensi3e geogra#ical resence in Eroe 1European branch network and banking subsidiaries

Asterda

At#ens

Bern

Brssels

6blin

Oslo

/ene3a

-ondon

-xeborg

Madrid

Monaco

Oslo

Paris

San Marino

Sko;e

B Bank =ngary

S-O: BA9CA -;bl;ana

S: =>B Bank Slo3akia UniBanka

Baltics: =>B Bank

B)=: =>B Central Pro%it Banka UniCredit B Bank Serbia

AB +iriac Bank UniCredit ,oania

,U: )nternational Mosco! Bank

P-: Bank BP= Bank Pekao

UA: =>B Bank Ukraine UniCredit Bank

A: Bank Astria Creditanstalt 6: =yo>ereinsbank ): UniCredit


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Countries where the Group operates via its own branches, representative offices, small banking subsidiaries, or investment centers (Pioneer)

Countries where the Group operates via local banks controlled or in which it has a significant equity interest

and !orld!ide

Mbai

*e! Dork

,io de Faneiro

SGo Palo

Seol

Singaore

S#ang#ai

Sydney

+e#eran

+el A3i3

+okyo

Ab 6#abi

Ba#rain

Bei;ing

Boston

Benos Aires

Cairo

/ang#o

=anoi

=ong ong

Fo#annesbrg

Mexico City

Miai


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= epresentative !ffice,

P- S B/ ,O =U C< DU S) =, BA M ,U UA -> -+ EE +, A<

Societe /enerale "# $ "

%

&

&

&

"' $ "," $ ",

$ *,,& $ +, , , , ,& $ , , , ,

$ , , ,

UniCredit is t#e largest gro !it# t#e ost extensi3e co3erage t#rog#ot t#e region1

= -ubsidiary

,


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... and is also resent in Serbia

&2 cities

(8 branc#es

Assets: '258

Market s#are: 897I

Cororate clients: ''000 sredn/a predu0e1a ".#&+ velika i me2unarodna &%&

bi0nis %.#

Pri3ate clients: '05000

Eloyees: 880


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"#at is banking $Section 2


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May 2007

+#e origin o% banking

)taly in edie3al ties

banca K trade


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May 2007

"#at does a bank sell $

Money$

Ser3ices$

Sa%ety$

$


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May 2007

"#at are t#e trends in t#e !orld $Section &


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May 2007

/lobalisation: +rend global gro!t# is #ig#er4 as are coodity rices

0

50

100

150

200

250

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

5.50

IMF world commodity price index

(2000=100! le"t #xi$

5%ye#r mo&in' #&er#'e! 'lo#l )*+ 'rowt,! ri',t #xi$


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=ig#er coodity rices ily bigger deand %or %inancial arket assets by EM

%200

%100

0

100

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350-#t#m

Middle #$t*e&elopin' /$i#

I

ex $$i#

index (

rrent #ccont

#l#nce$! * n! l,$


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Eerging Markets are integrating into t#e !orld econoy

10

15

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25

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45

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/dnced economie$! excldin'

*e&elopin' economie$ (orld min$ #dncedeconomie$

o" orld )*+! m#ret price$


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Big ictre conclsions

/lobal gro!t# !ill slo! in 20074 bt !ill reain strong %ro a #istoricalersecti3e

Coodity rices are #ence likely to reain abo3e long9ter a3erages

Ad3anced econoies !ill contine to gradally s#rink in ters o% iortance

A Lso%t US gro!t# landing and lo! in%lation !ill ro3e sorti3e %or risk taking4

bt at crrent ricing le3els t#e e3oltion o% in%lation exectations s#old be!atc#ed closely


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Ot#er key !ords

Pri3ate ENity Blackstone4 o#lberg ra3is ,oberts4 Perira

Banking consolidation: Barclays and AB* Aro 87 bn erger

=edge .nds reglatory risk

/lobalisation #as already arri3ed 1


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Serbia S"O+ AnalysisSection (


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Strengt#s: Strctral re%or is catc#ing

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eri#

:ec, eplic

* tr#n$ition indic#tor (#&er#'e


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Strengt#s: /ro!t# Otlook

,obst gro!t# in Serbia in 2007

3 Credit growth remains strong despite tighter 45- policy

3 6ncreases in public sector salaries will support consumption

3 4ational 6nvestment Programme activity continues unabated

3 7onetary policy slightly looser this year (lower *8week repo rate)

Crrent olitical sitation is t#e a;or risk

Exected econoic gro!t# o% 5I t#is year


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"eaknesses: )ndstrial Prodction and 1

U l t


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1 Uneloyent


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+#reats: eg )n%lation

Core inflation came down markedly in *< *##+

7ove from a crawling peg echange rate regime to a

>hard? dinar policy has helped lower inflation

@his has allowed the 4ational 5ank of -erbia to cut

interest rates # bps since -eptember *##+.

6ncreases in electricity prices and other administered

prices will increase the headline inflation rate

7edium8term the "&A average increase in public sector

salaries may generate inflationary pressures

4ational 6nvestment Programme activity also presents an

upside risk medium8term to the inflation outlook

Bower oil prices and stronger dinar are the main reasons

we see inflation stable this year at an average 'A and at

A in ecember *##' (partly due to base effects).


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+#reats: +#e crrency arkets 3olatility

C l i


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Conclsions

Banking is a colex ser3ice4 !#ic# !ill be needed still %or soe tie

.ollo!ing global trends is essential today as t#e e%%ects are already #ere

Serbia is generally doing !ell on econoic de3eloent

Banking sector in Serbia reains interesting and coetiti3e


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)% yo cannot con3ince t#e con%se t#e

+#anks %or t#e attentionAlexander Picker

May 2007

Documents

Banking in Serbia