Bank of Baroda - 4QFY2012 Result Update

7/31/2019 Bank of Baroda - 4QFY2012 Result Update

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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

Pre-prov. profit 2,051 2,608 (21.4) 1,946 5.4

Source: Company, Angel Research

For 4QFY2012, Bank of Baroda (BOB) posted a moderate set of numbers on the

operating front. Deterioration in asset quality was also witnessed during

4QFY2012 due to higher slippages and restructuring. However, tax write back of

`425cr led to bottom-line growing by 17.3% yoy.

For FY2012, the banks advances and deposits

grew by a strong 25.7% yoy and 26.0% yoy respectively. The banks domestic

CASA growth remained reasonably healthy at 15.9% yoy. The banks domestic

yield on advances declined by 30bp qoq to 11.7%, while domestic cost of deposits

came in higher by 27bp qoq to 6.9%, leading to a 7bp fall in reported NIM to

3.4% during 4QFY2012. The fee income of the bank remained muted in

4QFY2012 growing by a marginal 0.4% qoq (up a moderate 6.6% yoy).

Commission and brokerage income was higher in 4QFY2012 (up 17.7% qoq),

however was negated by lower income from Forex transactions and incidental

charges. Employee expenses for the bank increased by 51.2% qoq on back of

additional pension provisioning of ~`300cr. The slippage levels for the bank

which had increased to `952cr in 3QFY2012 (quarterly run rate of `500cr)

increased further to `1,323cr in 4QFY2012 (on back of a chunky media account).

The banks restructured book increased by 51.7% qoq (`5,139cr restructured

during 4QFY2012) on back of restructuring of SEBs (`2,000cr) and Air India

(`2,400cr). The bank reported a tax write-back of `425cr during 4QFY2012 on

account of pending tax credit and higher tax exemptions during 4QFY2012 due to

higher NPA write-offs (`530cr during 4QFY2012).

BOB has been rerated in recent years due to healthy

improvement in its core profitability. The banks current valuations at 0.8x

FY2014E ABV are similar to valuations at which its peers are trading, while in our

view the bank has a relatively better asset quality and earnings outlook as

compared to peers.As a result, it is one of our preferred picks amongst large PSU

banks.

% chg 48.2 17.2 20.7 18.2

% chg 38.7 18.0 4.9 17.8

NIM (%) 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.6

P/E (x) 6.8 6.0 6.0 5.1

P/ABV (x) 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.9

RoA (%) 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1

RoE (%) 23.5 20.7 17.8 18.2


CMP `687

Target Price `926

Investment Period 12 months

Stock Info

Sector Banking

Market Cap (` cr) 26,901

Beta 0.8

52 Week High / Low 919/630

Avg. Daily Volume 76,029

Face Value (`) 10

BSE Sensex 16,831

Nifty 5,087

Reuters Code BOB.BO

Bloomberg Code BOB@IN

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoters 54.3

MF / Banks / Indian Fls 20.5

FII / NRIs / OCBs 14.0

Indian Public / Others 11.2

Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr

Sensex (4.4) (8.9) 38.7

Bank ofBaroda

(9.9) (19.1) 111.6

022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808

[email protected]

022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847

[email protected]

022 3935 7800 Ext: 6872

[email protected]

Performance Highlights

4QFY2012 Result Update | Banking

May 4, 2012

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Bank of Baroda 4QFY2012 Result Update

May 4, 2012 2

Exhibit 1:4QFY2012 performance

- on Advances / Bills 6,074 5,736 5.9 4,587 32.4- on investments 1,640 1,646 (0.4) 1,318 24.4

- on balance with RBI & others 233 234 (0.4) 134 74.3

- on others 172 56 206.3 295 (41.8)

Other income excl. treasury 761 764 (0.4) 714 6.6

- Fee Income 345 293 17.7 326 5.6

- Treasury Income 137 386 (64.5) 121 13.4

- Recoveries from written off a/cs 106 71 49.6 86 23.9

- Others 310 400 (22.5) 301 2.7

- Employee expenses 1,020 674 51.3 990 3.0

- Other Opex 625 523 19.5 513 21.8

- Provisions for NPAs 926 509 82.0 424 118.2

- Provisions for Standard adv. 189 100 89.7 106 77.9

- Provisions for Investments (271) 224 NA 35 NA

- Other Provisions 11 17 (37.5) 25 (57.6)

Effective Tax Rate (%) (26.9) 26.6 NA 4.5 NA


Exhibit 2:4QFY2012 Actual vs. EstimatesNII 2,797 2,804 (0.2)

Non-interest income 898 957 (6.2)

Operating expenses 1,644 1,321 24.5

Provisions & cont. 854 623 37.2

PBT 1,197 1,817 (34.2)

Prov. for taxes -322 521 (161.8)




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May 4, 2012 3

Exhibit 3:4QFY2012 performance analysis

Advances (`cr) 287,377 260,661 10.2 228,676 25.7Deposits (`cr) 384,871 349,206 10.2 305,439 26.0

Credit-to-Deposit Ratio (%) 74.7 74.6 2bp 74.9 (20)bp

Current deposits (`cr) 28,944 22,981 25.9 23,135 25.1

Saving deposits (`cr) 74,580 71,842 3.8 64,454 15.7

CASA deposits (` cr) 103,524 94,823 9.2 87,589 18.2

Global CASA ratio (%) 26.9 27.2 (26)bp 28.7 (178)bp

Domestic CASA ratio (%) 33.2 34.1 (87)bp 34.4 (119)bp

CAR (%) 14.7 13.5 122bp 14.5 15bp

Tier 1 CAR (%) 10.8 9.3 152bp 10.0 84bp

Cost of deposits 7.2 6.9 27bp 5.6 154bp

Yield on advances 11.7 12.0 (30)bp 10.7 106bp

Yield on investments 7.7 7.8 (10)bp 7.6 9bp

Reported NIM 3.4 3.5 (7)bp 4.2 (72)bp

Cost-to-income ratio 44.5 31.5 1305bp 43.6 92bp

Gross NPAs (` cr) 4,465 3,895 14.6 3,153 41.6

Gross NPAs (%) 1.5 1.5 5bp 1.4 17bp

Net NPAs (`cr) 1,544 1,325 16.5 791 95.2

Net NPAs (%) 0.5 0.5 3bp 0.4 19bp

PCR incl. tech. w/offs (%) 80.1 80.5 (46)bp 85.0 (495)bp

Annualized slippage ratio (%) 2.3 1.7 65bp 1.5 79bp

NPA prov. to avg. assets (%) 0.9 0.5 35bp 0.5 37bp




4/12


May 4, 2012 4

Strong growth in both advances and deposits

For 4QFY2012, the bank witnessed healthy growth in its balance sheet with both

advances and deposits growing by 10.2% each. On a yoy basis too, the banks

advances and deposits grew by a strong 25.7% yoy and 26.0% yoy respectively.

The banks domestic CASA growth remained reasonably healthy at 15.9% yoy.

Saving account deposits grew by 15.3% yoy, while current account deposits growth

was relatively higher at 18.3% yoy.

The bank opened 213 branches during the quarter (compared to preceding 8

quarter average of 80 branches) taking the total number of branch additions for

FY2012 to 540 branches. The bank aims to open another 572 branches in

FY2013, which along with the recent additions should help the bank clock similar

growth levels as witnessed in the past, going ahead.

Exhibit 4:Business growth at above-industry levels


Exhibit 5:Moderation in CASA growth during FY2012


NIMs decline on lower yield on advances

The banks domestic yield on advances declined by 30bp qoq to 11.7%, while

domestic cost of deposits came in higher by 27bp qoq to 6.9%, leading to a 7bp

fall in reported NIM to 3.4% during 4QFY2012. The banks overseas NIMs

improved by 4bp qoq to 1.7%, leading to only a 3bp fall in overall NIMs to 2.96%.

Exhibit 6:Yield on advances lower sequentially


Exhibit 7:NIMs decline by 7bp sequentially

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: 4QFY11 adj. NIM at 3.70%

30.6

25.2

23.9

25.8

25.7

26.6

22.9

22.1

24.0

26.0

74.974.2

72.6

74.6 74.7

70.0

72.0

74.0

76.0

-

7.0

14.0

21.0

28.0

35.0

4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12

Adv. yoy chg (%) Dep. yoy chg (%) CDR (%, RHS)

34.4

33.9

34.0

34.1

33.2

21.4

16.1

12.614.8 15.9

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

32.0

33.0

34.0

35.0


Domestic CASA rat io CASA yoy growth (%, RHS)

10.65

11.23

12.14 12.0111.71

8.50

9.50

10.50

11.50

12.50


(%)

4.16

3.39

3.67

3.513.44

2.75

3.00

3.25

3.50

3.75

4.00

4.25


(%)



5/12


May 4, 2012 5

Fee income remains subdued in 4QFY2012

The fee income of the bank remained muted in 4QFY2012 growing by a marginal

0.4% qoq (up a moderate 6.6% yoy). Commission and brokerage income was

higher in 4QFY2012 (up 17.7% qoq), however was negated by lower income fromForex transactions and incidental charges. Recoveries from written off accounts

remained healthy growing by 49.6% qoq (up 23.9% yoy). The treasury income of

the bank declined by 64.5% qoq, primarily due to a high base (profits on liquid

investments booked during 3QFY2012).

Asset quality deterioration visible during 4QFY2012

The bank witnessed deterioration in its asset quality during 4QFY2012, with gross

and net NPA levels rising by 14.6% qoq and 16.5% qoq, respectively. Gross NPA

ratio as of 4QFY2012 stood at 1.5% (1.4% in 3QFY2012), while net NPA ratio

stood at 0.54% (0.51% in 3QFY2012). The slippage levels for the bank which hadincreased to `952cr in 3QFY2012 (quarterly run rate of `500cr) increased further

to `1,323cr in 4QFY2012 (on back of a chunky media account).

The banks restructured book increased by 51.7% qoq (`5,139cr restructured

during 4QFY2012) taking the proportion of total restructured loans to overall

loans to 5.2% (3.8% in 3QFY2012). As of 4QFY2012, the international

restructured book stands at `350cr (4.1% of the overseas loan book), while the

domestic restructured book stands at `11,584cr (5.7% of the domestic advances).

The sharp rise in the restructured book in 4QFY2012 can be attributed to

restructuring of SEBS (`2,000cr) and Air India (`2,400cr). The management

indicated that the NPV loss on restructuring of Air India will be borne from1QFY2013 onwards (amortised over 8 quarters).

The bank reported a tax write-back of `425cr during 4QFY2012 on account of

pending tax credit and higher tax exemptions during 4QFY2012 due to higher

NPA write-offs (`530cr during 4QFY2012). The management also indicated higher

profits from overseas business as a reason for lower effective tax rate (16.9%) for

the year. The bank however also did ad-hoc provisioning of `342cr during

4QFY2012.



6/12


May 4, 2012 6

Exhibit 8:NPA ratios higher but still stable


Exhibit 9:Slippages up for 4QFY2012


Exhibit 10:Branch expansion continues at healthy pace


Exhibit 11:Opex-to-average assets higher for 4QFY12


Investment arguments

Credit market share gains with reasonable asset quality

The banks advances growth (28.0% CAGR) outpaced the sectors growth (18.6%

CAGR) during FY200712, leading to credit market share gains of ~200bp.

The banks domestic NIM as well as its asset quality have been reasonably healthy

relative to peers, as reflected in the RoE of 20.7% and net NPA of 0.5% (as of

FY2012). The banks RoA has been increasing consistently since FY2007 (0.8% in

FY2007 and 1.2% in FY2012); and by increasing its leverage from 15-16x to 17-

18x over FY200712, the bank has managed to nearly double its RoE in the

last four years.

Managements focus on channel improvement

Management is focusing on new business, customers and technology initiatives to

further strengthen its operations and leverage its considerable domestic footprint.

The bank offers multiple service channels such as Baroda Connect (Internet

Banking), Phone Banking, Baroda Cash Management Services, NRI Services and

Depository Services. The bank has implemented an Integrated Global TreasurySolution in its major overseas territories. The bank has also started providing

online institutional trading to its corporate customers. This has aided the bank to

1.4

1.5

1.4

1.5

1.5

0.4

0.4

0.5

0.5

0.5

85.082.5 82.0

80.5 80.1

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

-

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.0


Gross NPAs (%) Net NPAs (%) PCR (%, RHS)

1.5

1.0

1.0

1.7

2.3

0.5

0.10.3

0.5

0.9

-

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

-

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.02.4

2.8


Slippages (%) Credit cost (%, RHS)

3,3643,409

3,492

3,691

3,904

3,000

3,150

3,300

3,450

3,600

3,750

3,900

4,050


43.6

37.7

35.2

31.5

44.5

1.8

1.2 1.2 1.2

1.5

-

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

25.0

31.0

37.0

43.0

49.0


Cost-to-income ratio (%) Opex to average assets (%, RHS)



7/12


May 4, 2012 7

register healthy CASA at a 20.1% CAGR over FY200712 and a decline in

opex-to-average assets from 2.0% in FY2007 to 1.3% in FY2012.

Outlook and valuation

The bank has been able to grow its bottom line at a 37.3% CAGR over

FY200712, driven by strong CASA ratio and market share gains in credit and

deposits and opex leverage.

At the CMP, the stock is trading at 0.8x FY2014E ABV. Historically, the stock has

traded at 0.8x1.3x one-year forward P/ABV multiple, with a five-year median of

1.0x, but it had been rerated over the past two years to a 1.2x average on the

back of consistent improvement in profitability, underpinned by fruitful investments

in channel modernization, healthy CASA and balance sheet growth and declining

operating expenses (1.3% of average assets in FY2012).

The bank has witnessed some amount of concerns on the asset quality front in

2HFY2012, particularly on its restructuring book which has almost doubled in the

last 2 quarters. However, most of the restructuring has been on account of SEBs

and Air India where we do not expect any slippages and NPV losses (except Air

India which will be ammortised over the next 8 quarters). Also lower than average

valuations, in our view, provide adequate level of comfort.

The banks strong branch network expansion plans, in our view, augur well for

credit as well as CASA market share gains, going forward. The bank opened 540

branches during FY2012 and aims to open another 572 branches in FY2013,

which in our view, should help the bank clock similar growth levels as witnessed in

the past, going ahead.

In our view, the bank has a better asset quality and earnings outlook as compared

to peers. As a result, it is one of our preferred picks amongst large PSU banks.

Exhibit 12:Key assumptions

Credit growth 18.0 20.0 18.0 20.0

Deposit growth 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0

CASA ratio 26.2 25.5 25.6 24.9

NIMs 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6

Other income growth 4.8 18.5 3.5 18.6

Growth in staff expenses 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0

Growth in other expenses 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0

Slippages 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.5

Treasury gain/(loss) (% of investments) 76.0 75.0 76.0 75.0




8/12


May 4, 2012 8

Exhibit 13:Change in estimates

NII 12,363 12,451 0.7 14,523 14,718 1.3

Non-interest income 3,650 3,542 (3.0) 4,326 4,201 (2.9)

Operating expenses 5,599 5,977 6.8 6,551 6,994 6.8

Provisions & cont. 2,391 2,244 (6.2) 2,937 2,773 (5.6)

PBT

Prov. for taxes 2,603 2,522 (3.1) 3,037 2,969 (2.2)


Exhibit 14:P/ABV band

Source: Company, Angel Research;

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Apr-06

Oct-06

Apr-07

Oct-07

Apr-08

Oct-08

Apr-09

Oct-09

Apr-10

Oct-10

Apr-11

Oct-11

Apr-12

Oct-12

Price (`) 0.5x 0.8x 1.1x 1.4x 1.7x



9/12


May 4, 2012 9

Exhibit 15:Recommendation summary

AxisBk Buy 1,010 1,587 57.1 1.4 2.2 7.3 16.4 1.5 20.3

FedBk Neutral 413 - - 1.0 - 7.2 13.0 1.3 14.5

HDFCBk Accumulate 537 567 5.6 3.1 3.3 15.1 27.0 1.7 22.1

ICICIBk* Buy 834 1,201 44.1 1.4 1.9 10.3 20.4 1.5 16.0

SIB Neutral 23 - - 1.0 - 5.9 6.7 0.9 17.7

YesBk Buy 333 470 40.9 1.7 2.4 8.0 22.5 1.4 23.3

AllBk Accumulate 170 194 14.2 0.7 0.8 4.2 (2.1) 1.0 16.8

AndhBk Neutral 114 - - 0.7 - 4.2 6.5 1.0 16.7

BOI Accumulate 353 386 9.4 0.8 1.0 5.2 16.4 0.8 16.9

BOM Buy 52 62 20.1 0.6 0.8 3.8 26.8 0.9 17.5

CanBk Buy 426 532 24.8 0.7 0.9 4.5 10.9 0.9 16.7CentBk Neutral 93 - - 0.8 - 4.6 45.7 0.5 13.8

CorpBk Buy 385 522 35.5 0.5 0.7 3.4 5.3 0.8 16.5

DenaBk Buy 87 118 36.1 0.5 0.7 3.4 6.2 0.9 16.9

IDBI# Buy 96 117 22.0 0.6 0.7 4.0 22.7 0.9 14.8

IndBk Accumulate 209 240 15.0 0.7 0.8 4.3 5.4 1.2 18.2

IOB Buy 84 104 24.7 0.5 0.7 4.0 29.9 0.6 13.9

J&KBk Neutral 906 - - 0.8 - 4.6 8.8 1.4 18.6

OBC Buy 228 285 25.0 0.5 0.6 3.6 27.7 0.8 14.3

PNB Buy 804 1,138 41.5 0.8 1.1 4.5 8.8 1.1 18.5

SBI* Buy 1,994 2,593 30.1 1.2 1.6 7.4 23.6 1.0 19.1

SynBk Buy 97 128 31.4 0.6 0.8 3.5 8.7 0.8 17.2

UcoBk Reduce 72 67 (6.9) 0.8 0.8 5.3 4.6 0.5 12.9

UnionBk Buy 217 266 22.7 0.7 0.9 4.4 27.2 0.8 17.4

UtdBk Buy 64 87 36.3 0.5 0.7 3.0 11.4 0.7 16.0

VijBk Neutral 55 - - 0.7 - 4.7 11.0 0.5 13.7

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:*Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries), #Without adjusting for SASF



10/12


May 4, 2012 10

- YoY Growth (%) 3.3 31.0 15.9 48.2 17.2 20.7 18.2

- YoY Growth (%) 47.6 34.5 1.8 0.1 21.8 3.5 18.6

- YoY Growth (%) 15.2 32.2 11.0 32.8 18.3 16.4 18.3

- YoY Growth (%) 15.3 21.9 6.6 21.5 10.3 17.0 17.0

- YoY Growth (%) 15.1 42.1 14.6 41.5 23.6 16.1 19.1

- YoY Growth (%) (16.3) 17.1 (27.5) 90.9 95.6 (13.8) 23.6

- YoY Growth (%) 33.8 51.5 26.8 33.3 6.6 29.0 17.8

- as a % of PBT 35.0 33.4 27.8 24.9 16.9 32.4 32.4

- YoY Growth (%) 39.9 55.1 37.3 38.7 18.0 4.9 17.8

Share Capital 366 366 366 393 412 432 432Reserves & Surplus 10,678 12,514 14,741 20,600 27,065 31,135 35,937

Deposits 152,034 192,397 241,262 305,439 384,871 461,845 554,214

- Growth (%) 21.7 26.5 25.4 26.6 26.0 20.0 20.0

Borrowings 3,927 5,636 6,160 12,906 16,108 19,274 23,062

Tier 2 Capital 5,423 7,132 7,190 9,402 7,465 8,808 10,570

Other Liab & Prov. 7,172 8,628 8,598 9,657 11,400 13,736 16,206

Cash balances 9,370 10,596 13,540 19,868 21,651 18,474 22,169

Bank balances 12,930 13,491 21,927 30,066 42,517 50,873 60,871

Investments 43,870 52,446 61,182 71,261 83,209 111,827 132,663

Advances 106,701 143,251 175,035 228,676 287,377 339,105 406,926

- Growth (%) 27.6 34.3 22.2 30.6 25.7 18.0 20.0

Fixed Assets 2,427 2,310 2,285 2,300 2,342 2,718 3,154

Other Assets 4,302 4,578 4,347 6,226 10,225 12,234 14,639

- Growth (%) 25.5 26.2 22.8 28.8 24.8 19.7 19.7



11/12


May 4, 2012 11

Ratio analysis

NIMs 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.6Cost to Income Ratio 49.2 45.4 43.6 39.9 37.2 37.4 37.0

RoA 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1

RoE 14.6 18.6 21.9 23.5 20.7 17.8 18.2

CASA Ratio 31.2 29.6 29.6 28.7 26.9 25.6 24.9

Credit/Deposit Ratio 70.2 74.5 72.5 74.9 74.7 73.4 73.4

CAR 12.9 14.1 14.4 14.5 14.7 14.2 13.7

- Tier I 7.6 8.5 9.2 10.0 11.3 10.8 10.4

Gross NPAs 1.8 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 2.2 2.7

Net NPAs 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.9

Slippages 1.2 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.5

Loan Loss Prov. /Avg. Assets 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4

Provision Coverage 75.0 75.6 86.0 85.0 80.1 76.0 75.0

EPS 39.3 60.9 83.7 108.0 121.4 121.5 143.1

ABVPS (75% cover.) 302.1 352.4 413.3 534.4 666.3 730.7 841.9

DPS 8.0 9.0 15.0 16.5 17.0 23.5 27.5

PER (x) 17.5 11.3 8.2 6.4 5.7 5.7 4.8

P/ABVPS (x) 2.3 1.9 1.7 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.8

Dividend Yield 1.2 1.3 2.2 2.4 2.5 3.4 4.0

NII 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.5

(-) Prov. Exp. 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5

Adj. NII 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.3 1.9 2.1 2.0

Treasury 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0

Int. Sens. Inc. 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.1 2.1 2.1

Other Inc. 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7

Op. Inc. 3.2 3.4 3.2 3.2 2.8 2.8 2.7

Opex 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.2PBT 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.5 1.6 1.6

Taxes 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5

Leverage 16.4 17.0 18.0 17.6 16.6 16.6 17.3



12/12


May 4 2012 12

Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

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Disclosure of Interest Statement Bank of Baroda

1. Analyst ownership of the stock No

2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No

3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No

4. Broking relationship with company covered No

Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below`

1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors

Documents

Bank of Baroda - 4QFY2012 Result Update