BALTICYEARBOOK 2015/16

2015/16 | Baltic Yearbook | 3

Dear Readers,

T his year we embarked on an epic journey across the Baltic Sea region, from which we gathered the 184-page bounty you hold in your hands. It required some heavy-duty data mining, maintaining focus and consistency throughout many months,

a bit of editorship here and there, and a lot of patience and a keen eye to details during assembly (not to mention luck). But here it finally is, the Baltic Sea transport and logistics port market in one place, be it ro-ro & ferry, containers, or dry and liquid bulk.

However, this isn’t just a “simple” four-in-one compilation. We made some annexes leaner in quantity (but not in quality!) to make room for a few novelties. First, just look at the mothership of all annexes on pgs. 162-165. Second, we fine-tuned the bulk part in the fashion of last year’s container part, i.e. pictured our region against the background of global production and export-import market trends. Third, an economic analysis and forecast of the Baltic’s GDPs sheds some light on what can propel or alternatively exhaust ports’ handlings in the near future. Lastly, and this is something I’m particularly proud of, we unitized the unitized freight sector by bringing wheeled cargo units that are carried in swarms across the world’s biggest ro-ro & ferry market with the container segment under one common denominator. We hope modestly that the Universal Cargo Unit (UCU) measure will grab a firm foothold as a credible method of assessing a given port’s level of modern technological advancement in freight turnover. The rest is good ol’ school of ours – insights, tables, maps, networks, etc.

Enjoy your reading!

Przemysław Myszka, Editor-in-Chief

Note from the editors:This Yearbook is based on our own data research and analysis performed till September 2016, and includes our personal findings, interpretations and assumptions, based on national statistics and information received directly from the companies, associations and institutions. The majority of networks and figures were confirmed, when it was possible. However, there always exists a margin of error. We will appreciate your feedback, suggestions and all arguments that might help us make this publication better in the future.If you wish to share your view with us, please do not hesitate to contact us: editorial@baltictransportjournal.com, tel. +48 58 627 23 94.

Baltic Yearbook 2015/16is a free supplement to the Baltic Transport Journal 4/2016 edition and is obtainable in the BTJ printed version’s annual subscription.

PublisherBaltic Press sp. z o.o.ul. Pułaskiego 881-368 Gdynia, Poland

tel.: +48 58 627 23 94/21office@baltictransportjournal.com

www.baltictransportjournal.comwww.baltictransportmaps.com

Executive EditorMarek Błuś

Editor-in-ChiefPrzemysław Myszka

Economic, and the Baltic-global bulk analysesDr Maciej Matczak Head of Actia Forum's Consulting Department

Data research/verificationAleksandra Plis, Maciej Kniter

Proofreading EditorAlison Nissen

Art director/DTPDanuta Sawicka Marketing & salesAnna DąbrowskaPrzemysław Opłocki

In order to get your own copy, please go to www.baltictransportjournal.com and click SUBSCRIPTION or contact us at: subscription@baltictransportjournal.com

Circulation: 2,500

Cover photo: Wikimedia Commons

2015/16 | Baltic Yearbook | 13

BSR economic developments

GDP development – today, and in the near future

Last year, the average global pace of economic growth (measured in Gross Domestic Product; GDP) achieved a level of +2.5% year-on-year, a minimal slowdown (-0.1 percentage point; pp) in the creation of economic value. Th is outcome was reached

as a result of diversifi ed changes occurring in particular parts of the world economy. Improvement of the GDP value was observed in OECD countries (from 2014’s +1.8% yoy to +2.0% yoy last year), including the EU (from +1.4% yoy up to +1.9% yoy), as well as in India (advancing by 0.4% pp to +7.6% yoy). At the same time, however, China experienced a noticeable limitation of its GDP growth tempo (down by 0.4 pp to +6.9% yoy), while Brazil (-3.8% yoy) and Russia (-3.7% yoy) found themselves in a recession. As for the leading global economy, the United States, GDP growth here remained at the same level as the previous year (+2.4% yoy).

GDP development – today, and in the near future

Las a result of diversifi ed changes occurring in particular parts of the world economy. Improvement of the GDP value was observed in OECD countries (from 2014’s +1.8% yoy to +2.0% yoy last year), including the EU (from +1.4% yoy up to +1.9% yoy), as well as in India (advancing by 0.4% pp to +7.6% yoy). At the same time, however, China experienced a noticeable limitation of its GDP growth tempo (down by 0.4 pp to +6.9% yoy), while Brazil (-3.8% yoy) and Russia (-3.7% yoy) found themselves in a recession. As for the leading global economy, the United States, GDP growth here remained at the same level as the previous year (+2.4% yoy).

BSR economic developments

by Maciej Matczak, Head of Actia Forum’s

Consulting Department

2015/16 | Baltic Yearbook | 21

2015’s winners and losers

I. Port-trade relationsLast year, the Baltic Sea region’s ports took care of 868.5 mln tn, noting a decrease by

0.5% year-on-year. In principle, what does this drop mean? Are Baltic seaports a mirror of the region’s economy, or do their volumes distort the image?

In general, the “Yes, they mirror the economy” rule is valid. However, when compar-ing the wide-ranging statistics published in other chapters of this publication with this section’s fi gures, one could say that we’re certainly dealing with diff erent mirrors.

As such, Russia’s situation is particularly confusing. On the one hand, we have a serious trade recession (-33% yoy by value), but on the other, an increasing turno-ver in goods (export) passing the country’s quays Russia-wide (except for the rather marginal Caspian Sea). In 2015, a total of 676.4 mln tn was handled at all Russian ports, the Baltic marking an increase by 3.2% yoy, almost two times slower than the overall growth of 5.7% yoy. This means that the rise noted in the cluster around St. Petersburg cannot be explained by freight transfers coming from other parts of the Russian Federation; for instance, Black Sea ports (incl. Crimean ones) grew by 10.2% yoy, while the slower-paced Arctic terminals – by 1.0% yoy. Therefore, the answer to Russia’s mirror question is hidden in the balance between quantitative (up) and qualitative (down) parameters of the country’s turnover.

I. Port-trade relations

0.5% year-on-year. In principle, what does this drop mean? Are Baltic seaports a mirror of the region’s economy, or do their volumes distort the image?

ing the wide-ranging statistics published in other chapters of this publication with this section’s fi gures, one could say that we’re certainly dealing with diff erent mirrors.

serious trade recession (-33% yoy by value), but on the other, an increasing turno-ver in goods (export) passing the country’s quays Russia-wide (except for the rather marginal Caspian Sea). In 2015, a total of 676.4 mln tn was handled at all Russian ports, the Baltic marking an increase by 3.2% yoy, almost two times slower than the overall growth of 5.7% yoy. This means that the rise noted in the cluster around St. Petersburg cannot be explained by freight transfers coming from other parts of the Russian Federation; for instance, Black Sea ports (incl. Crimean ones) grew by 10.2% yoy, while the slower-paced Arctic terminals – by 1.0% yoy. Therefore, the answer to Russia’s mirror question is hidden in the balance between quantitative (up) and qualitative (down) parameters of the country’s turnover.

2015’s winners and losers

by Marek Błuś

32 | Baltic Yearbook | 2015/16

2015’s winners and losers

III. Universal Cargo Unit – UCUThe technological revolution that took place in the last decades of the 20th century left

the Baltic Sea region with a specific handling-transportation split concerning manufac-tured goods. Since the 1990s, and thanks to short distances between the main trading partners, wheeled cargo is on top of the Baltic ports’ general cargo totals, but never before has its share amounted to nearly 47% (measured by weight) as it did last year. Containers, a symbol of modernity in transport and the main unit for overseas shipping, dropped in 2015 by two percentage points to almost 27%, but it is rather a temporary phenomenon dependent more on politics than on the economy. Anyway, looking from a long-term horizon, both modern technologies that use large units to pack and transport high(er) value goods have grown (and will continue doing this) at the cost of break-bulk, as its share declines slowly yet steadily (just over 26% last year).

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40 | Baltic Yearbook | 2015/16

2015’s winners and losers

IV. FleetsRo-ro & ferry

The fleet taking care of unitised cargo to, from, and within the Baltic Sea didn’t change much between our summer censuses. In fact, one could say that never before have the ferry, ro-ro, and container fleets been so stable as in recent years. For instance, in the 112 units strong 2015 ferry fleet only one vessel in international traffic was replaced by a new boat, namely Scandlines’ much awaited Berlin took the place of Prins Joachim on the Rostock-Gedser route. Other changes were cosmetic, e.g. in Stena Line’s network Ask was re-christened as Stena Gothica, replacing the sold Stena Scanrail on the Gothenburg-Frederikshavn run, while DFDS added Patria Seaways to its Baltic services.

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2015/16 | Baltic Yearbook | 47

Baltic bulk market

Global bulk markets

and the Balticby Maciej Matczak,

Head of Actia Forum’s Consulting Department

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Th e infl uence of global bulk markets on overseas trade in the Baltic Sea region in 2015

The global bulk market has an immense impact on worldwide seaborne trade. According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development’s Review of Maritime Transport 2015, a total of 10.16 bln tn was sea-transported

last year (+3.2% year-on-year), out of which bulk goods accounted for approx. 76%, including crude oil (17%), iron ore (13%), coal (12%), petroleum products (9%), gas and chemicals (6%), grain (4%), as well as other bulk (15%). Th e same holds true for the Baltic Sea, where in 2015 the region’s seaports handled a total of 868.45 mln tn, 350.12 mln tn coming from liquids, and 229.44 mln tn from dry bulk.

Shipping & rail networks

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Maps of shipping

operators

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Maps of rail operators

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Shipping & rail networks

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Maps of feeder

and short sea services

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Maps of ocean services

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Maps of rail operators

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Maps of BSR ports

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Annexes

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Baltic Yearbook 2015/16 highlights:• UniversalCargoUnit(UCU)–ro-ro&ferryandTEUvolumesbrought

under one common denominator• Totalseaportfreightvolumesin2015–flat,uneven,andobscuredby

transit relations• Increasesinro-ro&ferrytrafficcompensatingforcontainerturnover

slumps (in some countries at least)• Ro-ro&ferryandcontainerfeeder&shortseafleets–stableasneverbefore• Balticport-traderelations–mirroringtheeconomyinthreedifferentways• BSReconomicdevelopments–today,andinthenearfuture• GlobalbulkmarketsandtheBaltic–crudeoil,oilproducts,coal,ironore,

and grains

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