Ballinger - Littoral 2010 (Education Centre)

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Adapting to climate change in the Severn Estuary:

the Corporate Response by Local GovernmentDr Rhoda Ballinger

School of Earth & Ocean Sciences, Cardiff [email protected]

Littoral 2010 ConferenceSeptember 2010


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Format

IMCORE Project & the Severn Estuary Expert Couplet

Severn Estuary Planning Review: Phases one & twoFurther research and scenario building


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The IMCORE Project &

the Severn Estuary Expert Couplet


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IMCORE Project

Innovative Management of Europe sChanging Coastal Resource

Aims:To promote a transnational,innovative & sustainable approach

to reducing the impacts of climatechange on coastal resourcesTo develop adaptation strategies forcoastal sites across North WestEuropeTo demonstrate the effectiveness of various approaches to climatechange adaptation

www. imcore . eu

UKCIP s Adaptation Wizard


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S evern Estuary ECN

Main aim:To enhance the capacity for

Climate change adaptation in theS evern Estuary area

Subsidiary aims:y To inform the development of climate

change adaptation on the SevernEstuary

y To encourage joint working andimproved interaction betweenscientists and policy makers

IMCORES tudy S ites

9 Expert Couplet Nodes (ECNs)


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Severn Estuary Planning Review


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Phase One Corp orate Resp on sest o Cl imate Cha ng e on t he Sever n Estuary

H ow S evern Estuary planningbodies around the estuary haveembedded climate change intoplanning practice

Phase Two Seve n Questi on s wit h P l a nn ers

W hat are the key issues andconcerns for S evern Estuaryplanning bodies in adapting toclimate change at the coast


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Phase One Methodology

Corporate Responses to

Climate ChangeS creening for:y Local government commitment on

climate changey Dedicated climate change strategiesy Public provision of climate change

information .

Planning Policy Analysis:S

tocktake of S

evern Estuary PlansPolicy Themes:y Climate Changey Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Managementy Estuary Management

Criteria for Analysis:y Policy occurrencey Critique of policy contenty Geographical coverage

Issues:

Not exhaustive

Old & ne w style plansHistorical Policy Analysis:

Comparison w ith A Review of Development

Plans in the S evern Estuary S trategy Area:

1999 Update (Ballinger et a l ., 1999)


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Welsh Planning Bodies /Groups English Planning Bodies

Bridgend County Borough Council Forest of Dean District Council

Vale of Glamorgan Council Stroud District Council

Cardiff City Council Tewkesbury Borough Council

Newport City Council Gloucester City Council

Monmouthshire County Council Gloucestershire County Council

South East Wales Strategic PlanningGroup Bristol City Council

Welsh Assembly Government North Somerset Distr ict Council

Sedgemoor District Council

West Somerset District Council

Somerset County Council

REVIEW ED PLANNINGBODIES=20

REVIEW ED PLANS =33

South Gloucestershire Council

Exmoor National Park

South West Regional DevelopmentAgency

Stocktake Methodology


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Phase One F indings

W hat are the patterns

around the estuary?


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Summary: Emerging Policy TrendsGoing Up

Strong emergence of explicit climate changepolicies within emergingplans

focus remains on mitigation

High numbers of flood riskpolicies in both adoptedand emerging plans

Going Do w nDropping off of coastal

zone related policieswithin emerging plansFew references to S horelineManagement Plans inexisting plans -none inemerging plansFew references to S evern

EstuaryS

trategy in existingplans & none in emergingplans


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Climate Change Policies & MeasuresTheimage cannotbed isplayed.Your computer may nothaveenough memory toopen theimage,or theimage may havebeen corrupted. Restartyour computer,and then open thefileagain.If thered x stillappears,you may havetodeletethe imageand then insertit again.

Severaldeveloped

ClimateChange

Strategies

Majorityhave

mitigation &adaptationmeasures

Different climatechange science

content in strategies


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Key MessagesCongested policy space

around the estuary

Need to raise profile of:Coastal planning issues (inc . thevalue of the coast)Climate change adaptation

Need to encourage:a S ense of S evern EstuaryS

evern Estuary PlanningCommunity?

Questions RaisedUnexpected policy trends

e . g. w hy have coastal-relatedpolicies dropped off?

Do we need a change in existingplanning guidance?

Update / Refresh TAN14 CoastalPlanning?Influence of DC LG s

Development & CoastalChange consultation guidanceH ow to encourage an adaptiveapproach to climate changeadaptation?

Phase One


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Phase Two


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Phase Two MethodologyWhat are the key issues andconcerns for planningbodies in adapting toclimate change at thecoast?

Semi-structured interviewschedule with 12 officers(11 planning policy officers& 1 project officer)

Seven Questions Futuresmethod


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Critical Issues

12

6

3

2

1

1

1

1

Development & Flood Risk

Nature Conservation

Renewable Energy Generation

Building Design

Cross-Border Working

Sustainability o f Coastal Towns

Transport

ArchaeologyDevelopment & Flood Risk

N umber on e is f loo di ng h uge issue ;

f loo di ng is o ur bi g c on cer n ;

we have a sma ll ham l et rea ll y i n da ng er ;

so muc h o f o ur urba n deve lo pme n t isi n very vu ln erab l e lo cati on s...


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Favorable outcomes of

climate change adaptationFlood risk management (n =6 )Increase in building design and standards (Futureproofing) (n =5 )Local rene w able energy generation (n = 4)

Use of Open S paces (n =2 )Protection major infrastructure assets (road and rail) (n = 1)Greater prevalence of S ustainable Urban Drainage Systems ( S UDS ) (n = 1)Greater areas of coastal flood plain under H igh Level EnvironmentalS te w ardship schemes (n = 1)Maintaining integrity of nature conservation designations (n = 1)Future development located to enable maximum use of public transport(n= 1)


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Unfavorable outcomes of not adapting tocoastal climate change (inaction) on theSevern Estuary :

Flooding events continuing and increasing around the S evernEstuary (n = 9)Loss of nature conservation designations around the estuary (n =2 )Loss of major infrastructure assets (road and rail) (n = 1)Regional w ater shortages (n = 1)

more vulnerable development ininappropriate locations, coastal or not

cant afford to maintain al our defences, soif we dont get planning right, we are going tohave ongoing costs & cost implications fromour development decisions


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Severn Estuary PlannersAdaptation Wish List

Greater funding to support a range of adaptation measures, e.g. retrofitting of existing buildings: the elephant in the room relocating coastal communitiesGreater scientific certainty about climate change and coastal changeContinue to defend in areas where there are already defences in placeIntegrated Coastal Zone ManagementMaintaining nature conservation ( i. e . Natura2000 sites)Greater government steer on climate change and more prescriptiveguidance

would go back two-threehundred years, wouldnt have built

on drained areas of land, sadly cant change whats there

have the evidence toinfluence change

too short-termist, should

be thinking moreradically


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Key MessagesVulnerability to flooding is thecritical issue facing S evern EstuaryPlanning Bodies in adapting toclimate change at the coastGrow ing number of plans &

strategies = complex , congestedpolicy spacePrimacy of plans & arising actions forplanning bodies is unclear Planners need clarity on the actions

they need to take arising fromemerging plans

Inherited coastal developmentlegacies & community desire toremain = major challenge forplanning & FCERM

Questions RaisedH ow to address anxieties concerningflooding?

Do there need to be greaterinterlinkages bet w een the planningsystem & SMP/ FRM S?

H ow to encourage greater cross-border w orking on estuary w ideissues , such as climate change?

Phase Two


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F uture Severn Estuary

IMCORE Work


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F uture Activities include:

Delphi survey (Summer Autumn 2010)Scenarios workshops ( A utumn 2010 )Guidelines for Severn Estuary climate change adaptation ( 2011 )


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Thank you

Dr Rhoda Ballinger

[email protected]

Documents

Ballinger - Littoral 2010 (Education Centre)