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Sally Lyons Wyatt, EVP, IRI Center-of-Store & Produce Vertical
Jonna Parker, Principal, IRI Fresh Center of Excellence
May 23, 2019
BALANCING THE GEOGRAPHIC PENDULUM
Top Trends in Fresh
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 2
FMI is the trade
association that serves as
the voice of food retail.
We assist food retailers in
their role of feeding families
and enriching lives.
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 3
The Association
Our members are food retailers, wholesales
and suppliers of all types and sizes
FMI provides comprehensive programs,
resources and advocacy for the food,
pharmacy and grocery retail industry
ASSET
PROTECTIONEDUCATION RESEARCH
FOOD SAFETY
& DEFENSE
GOVERNMENT
RELATIONS
SUSTAINABILITY
SUPPLY CHAIN
HEALTH & WELLNESS
PRIVATE BRANDS
FRESH FOODS INFORMATION
SERVICE
CENTER STORE
CONSUMER &
COMMUNITY AFFAIRSINDEPENDENT
OPERATOR
COMMUNICATION WHOLESALER
TECHNOLOGY
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 4
Fresh @ FMI
Fresh Foods
Emphasis on Fresh
‒ Produce
‒ Meat
‒ Seafood
‒ Deli / In-Store, Fresh Prepared Foods, Assortments
‒ Bakery
‒ Floral
FMI is committed to the growth and success of fresh companies and
their partners. FMI provides resources and networks that support the
interests of member companies throughout the global, fresh produce
supply chain, including family-owned, private and publicly traded
businesses as well as regional, national and international companies.
Rick SteinVice President, Fresh Foods
Food Marketing Institute
202.220.0700
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 5
FMI Fresh Foods
Research and Education
In-depth information, trends and insights
to foster innovation, take advantage of
new opportunities and help develop
winning strategies
Networking
Share ideas, explore best practices and
develop business relations
Advocacy
Understand what is going on in
Washington and make your voice heard
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 6
FMI Fresh Executive Committee (FEC)
The FEC is Comprised of FMI Member Companies, Retailers and Wholesalers
John Ruane (Chair)
Ahold USA
Rick Steigerwald (Co-Chair)
Lund Food Holdings, Inc.
Tom DeVries
Giant Eagle, Inc.
John Beretta
Albertsons, LLC
Dave Bornmann
Publix Super Markets, Inc.
Scott Bradley
Target Corporation
Jerry Chadwick
Lancaster Foods, LLC
Alex Corbishley
Target Corporation
Buddy Jones
MDI Distributors
Dan Koch
Associated Wholesale Grocers, Inc.
Nate Stewart
Hy-Vee
John Haggerty
Burris Logistics
Mark Hilton
Harris Teeter LLC
Terry Murphy
Wakefern Food Corporation
Kirk LaBoyteaux
Brookshire Grocery Company
Dan Murphy
SuperValu/UNFI
Pat Pessotto
Longo Brothers Fruit Markets Inc.
Nick Carlino
MDI Distributors
Don Sanderson
Meijer, Inc.
Geoff Waldau
Food Lion
John Grimes
Weis Markets
Rick Findlay
Fresh Thyme
Jim Lemke
CH Robinson Fresh
Steve Howard
Bristol Farms/Lazy Acres
Emily Coborn
Coborns
Jerry Goldsmith
Spartan Nash
Anthony Sattler
C&S Wholesalers
Teri Rose
Kroger
Jack Bell
Save-A-Lot
Paul Kneeland
Gelsons Markets
Scott Evans
Price Chopper/Mkt 32
Buddy Jones
MDI Distributors
Amanda Becker
Fairway Markets
Troy Vosburg
Festival Foods
John Beretta
Albertsons Co’s
Paul White
Luckys Markets
Manuel Gonzales
Northgate Gonzales
Reade Sievert
AWG
Nicole Wegman*
Wegmans Food Markets, Inc.
* Silent members
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 7
FMI Fresh Foods Leadership Council
John Ruane (Co-Chair)
Ahold USA
Rick Steigerwald (Co-Chair)
Lund Food Holdings, Inc.
All- FEC Members
FMI Fresh Executive Council
Chris Dubois
IRI
Michael Eardley
International Dairy-Deli-Bakery Assoc.
Jason Jerome
National Cattleman's Beef Association
Sarah Schmansky
Nielsen Perishables Group
Paul Mastronardi
Mastronardi Produce
David Sherrod
SE Produce Council
Tom Stenzel/Miriam Wolk
United Fresh Produce Assoc.
Julie Ann Potts/Eric Zito
North American Meat Institute
Tom Super
National Chicken Council
Jarrod Sutton
National Pork Board
Joe Watson
Produce Marketing Assoc.
Joe Weber
Smithfield Foods Inc.
Art Yerecic/Elizabeth Yerecic
Yerecic Label
Brad Roche
Hill Phoenix
Greg Livelli
Hussmann
Robb MacKie
American Bakers Assoc.
Jim Huston
Johnsonville
Chad Gregory
United Egg Producers
Eric Gassaway
Bayer
John Knorr
Phillips Seafood
Mike Celani
Wonderful
Jim Randazzo
Aqua Star Seafood
Jeff Thompson
Trident Seafood
Jeff Baker
Hormel Foods
Sally Lyons-Wyatt
IRI
Wendy Reinhardt Kapsak
Produce for Better Health (PBH)
Michael Lang
Invatron
Tom Daniel
Sterilox/Chemstar
Randy Evins
SAP
Tom Windish
Cargill
Michael Forrest/Ellisa Garling
Thomas Foods
Mark Molter
ADC.
Lance Jungmeyer
FPAA
Ray Fager
Kings Hawaiian
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 8
We’ve Been Discussing Top Trends in Fresh for Several Years…
Focus Has Been on Individual Trends
Source: Top Trends in Fresh 2016 - 2018
New Supply
Chains
d
Food
Transparency
d d
Convenience
d
Fresh
Prepared
d
Connected
Consumer
Holistic
Health
d
Customization
to Consumerism
d
d d
Atomization of
Personalization
d
LocalizationSocial &
Cultural
Alignment
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 9
Fresh is Imperative
Competition and complexity is fiercer
than ever but Fresh remains critical
to differentiate, grow and win
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 10
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 L52 YTD 2019
Fresh Perimeter Food & Bev (Ex Fresh)
Fresh Perimeter Has Grown Over $7B Since 2014, but Growth is Slowing
2.1%
5.0%
1.2%
2.0%
Gap Fresh +2.9 pts
F&B Minus FreshGap Fresh -0.8 pts
to F&B Minus Fresh
Source: Total Store View + Perimeter Market Advantage incl. Fixed Weight Fresh, MULO ending 12-2-18Source: Total Store View + Perimeter Market Advantage, MULO ending 3-24-19, Perimeter includes both FW/RW definition, Sales change vs. prior year by period
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 11
2019 Fresh Trends Educational Plan
The Store Size
Pendulum
How do large, medium and
small size footprints fare in
fresh?
The Total
Store Pendulum
How can both fresh
and center-store
win consumers?
The Geographic
Pendulum
How have different regions
and markets succeeded in
fresh?
The Consumer
Pendulum
2019 Fresh Trends –
Balancing the Consumer
Pendulum
MAY
23
JUL
25
OCT
24
May 23 July 25 October 24
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 12
In Case You Missed it – Key Learnings from Balancing the Consumer Pendulum
2018• Fresh sales grew only 1%
this past year, 3 % points less than 2014
• Center-store sales growth outperformed Fresh Foodsfor the first time in the decade
FUTURE is HERE and is DISRUPTIVE
• Millennials & Gen Z are most culturally diverse ever
• Growth lies in impact of the changing U.S. demographic landscape
• Generational, multi-cultural and socio-economic lenses reveal a critical path
CONSUMERS
• 3 key targets illustrate growth opportunities of nearly $5B
• Its not about wide distribution – its being distributed perfectly
• Fresh is increasing in importance – but interest in buying fresh at alternative channels is also up from past years
• Fresh has added $7B in sales since 2014
• Health and Convenience continue to be vital, impacting traditional categories
are key
what’s
seewe
working
https://www.iriworldwide.com/en-US/Insights/Webinars/Balancing-the-Consumer-Pendulum
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 13
14%Of total store growth
Within Multi-Outlet, Total Store Sales Continue
to Grow; Fresh Not Keeping Pace
Source: Total Store View + Perimeter Market Advantage, MULO 52-weeks ending 3-24-19
TOTAL STORE SALES
$799B
$12Bvs. Last Year
23%Of total store sales since 2015 butTOTAL FRESH PERIMETER
$180B
$1.6Bvs. Last Year
L-52 2019
24%2017
31%2015
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 14
The Fresh Perimeter Departments Make Up a Quarter of
Food & Beverage MULO Sales Driven by Produce and Meat
$799B – TOTAL STORE $573B – TOTAL FOOD & BEVERAGE
Source: Dollar Sales, Custom IRI Total Store View + Perimeter Market Advantage with FW/RW Combined for Perimeter Depts, MULO 52 weeks ending 3-24-19
Non Food & Edibles
Non-Food
$225B
General Food
$158B
Bev & Liquor
$98B
Dairy
$56B
Frozen
$51B
Refrigerated
$30B
Perimeter
Produce
$60B
Meat
$60B
Bakery (Aisle & ISB)
$29B
Deli Prepared
$13B
Deli Meat & Cheese
$8B
Seafood
$5B
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 15
3.4%
1.0%
BEVERAGES
2.3%
1.2%
FROZEN
1.1%
-0.6%
GENERAL FOOD
3.2%
1.6%
LIQUOR
3.2%
2.3%
REFRIGERATED
EDIBLES
1.9% 0.0%
PERIMETER
0.9% -0.3%$ % CHG VS. YAGO
UNIT % CHG VS. YAGO
1.6%
-1.1%
PKG & FRESH BAKERY
-0.3%
-2.2%
DELI CHEESE (RW)
0.1%
-0.3%
DELI MEAT (RW)
2.7%
0.9%
DELI PREPARED
0.3%
-0.2%
PRODUCE
2.0%
-1.0%
SEAFOOD
0.6%
0.0%
MEAT
0.7%
-1.0%
DAIRY
Many Center Store Food Departments Experiencing Both Dollar
and Unit Growth, Unlike Most Perimeter Departments
Source: Total Store View + Perimeter including FW & RW Custom Departments, Market Advantage, MULO 52-weeks ending 3-24-19
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 16
The Fastest Growing Fresh Categories Offer Convenience, Health and Indulgence
Change 52 Weeks Ending 3-24-19
+ Dollars | + Volume
Pre-Packaged Refrigerated
Entrees**
+$278M | +38M
Deli Prepared Appetizers
+$210M | +37M
Pre-Packaged Refrigerated Meat**
+$237M | +72MFresh Berries
+$216MB | +30MFresh Bakery Cakes
+$223M | +22M
Deli Prepared Entrees
+$142M | +3MFresh Beef Loin
+$157M | +14M
Pre-Packaged Refrigerated
Side Dishes**
+$180M | +14M
Source: Total Store View + Perimeter Market Advantage, MULO 52-weeks ending 3-29-19, ** Indicates Fixed Weight Only
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 17
The Pendulum is Shifting- The Geographic Pendulum: Regional Performance Varies
- Finding Balance and Identifying Growth Today, Tomorrow and in the Future
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 18
Fresh
Opportunity
HOUSEHOLD
01 | Buying Across CHANNELS
02 | Spending on FRESH FOODS
03 | Spending on FOOD & BEV
04 | Spending TRENDS
05 | Projected POPULATION GROWTH
At FMI Mid-Winter, We Discussed How Data and Insights Help Us
Find, Understand and Influence These New Households
HOUSEHOL
D
Economic
Cultural
Geography
Generation
Attitudes
Household
Make-up
HOUSEHOLD
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 19
Today, We Will Dive Into Regional Differences to Determine
Strategies and Tactics for Balancing the Geographic Pendulum
• How do fresh consumers differ by region?
• Which regions are successfully growing in fresh sales?
Which struggle and why?
• Where and how can we connect with the consumers who
will fuel growth?
• What are actions to consider to grow in any region?
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 20
Freshness and Health / Wellness Reign as Top
Reasons to Buy Fresh, But Specifics Vary Regionally
W
NC
NE
S
WEST | Variety and differentiation
Higher propensity towards taste exploration and
transparency factors
NORTH CENTRAL | Competitive pricing
6 in 10 choose what/where to buy based on pricing –
double that of the South
NORTHEAST | Most complex –
variety of factors
local, portability and convenient prep
SOUTH | Simpler than other regions
Less motivated to choose by price
Deals won’t get them to switch from favorites
Source: IRI Fresh Foods Survey, 2019 – Why do you buy fresh foods?
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 21
Fresh Perimeter Departments Remain Sluggish in Regions Where
Competition is Fierce for Consumers; West (ex California) Sets the Pace
The Complexity is What’s Driving the Disparity in Growth Performance
0.9%Perimeter
Total U.S. MULO
52-Week
Growth Rate
Source: Dollar Sales, IRI Total Store View + Perimeter Market Advantage, 52 weeks ending March 24, 2019 vs. Year Ago
Dollars % Change
-0.0% to 0.9%
0.9% to 1.4%
1.4% to 1.7%
1.9%
2.5%
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 22
Understand What Drives
Growth So We Can Gain
Dollars Anywhere
Two Regions Struggling to Find Growth Have the Highest Sales Velocity
So We Must Return the Pendulum to Growth and Sales
Strength to Capitalize on Fresh and Total Store Potential
$195k
$152k
$160k
$165k$136k
$148k$172k
$176k
Source: Dollar Sales, IRI Total Store View + Perimeter Market Advantage, 52 weeks ending March 24, 2019 vs. Year Ago
$165kPerimeter
Total U.S. MULO
Average Velocity
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 23
1/3 of Consumers in All Regions Said “Value for Price” is Much More Important Than
Last Year; as Fresh Food Becomes Ubiquitous Across Channels, Value is King
W
NC
NE
S
WEST | More Price and Value than other regions
NORTH CENTRAL | Value, price, & convenience
Health & wellness “free from” claims
NORTHEAST | Freshness & Health (especially caloric content)
“Free-from” attributes
SOUTH | Taste & Protein-rich
Antibiotic and pesticide-free foods
Source: IRI Fresh Foods Survey, 2019 – What is more/less important to you in buying fresh foods than last year?More important than last year or higher incidence
Less important than last year
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 24
Since Value Has Different Meanings to Consumers,
Channel Selection Varies Across Regions
W
NC
NE
S
WEST | supermarket; higher incidence of Club and Specialty;
Most curious about alternative means like delivery and meal kits
NORTH CENTRAL | primarily buy fresh at supermarkets;
Highest rate of Farmers markets (5%)
NORTHEAST | Traditional grocery still rules
SOUTH | Mass / Supercenter is primary fresh buying location for…
Source: IRI Fresh Foods Survey, 2019 – Where do you primarily buy fresh?;
10%
vs any other region
Of consumers - double
that of the NE or West
30%
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 25
Channel Selection Can Often Be Beyond Traditional
Bodegas and Experiential
Independents in the Northeast
Concentration of Farmer’s Markets
in North Central and East
40,000 U.S. grocery stores with heavier
concentration of smaller independents,
bodegas, specialty stores in the NE
Limited Assortment Discounters
Impacting Central for Fresh Foods
Aldi draws 11% of their national fresh
sales from Great Lakes – 4% higher than
the region normally contributes
8,600 Farmers Markets in the U.S. –
5,000 more than in 1994
Source: IRI Household Panel Data, latest 52 weeks 3-24-19; USDA
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 26
Diversity is Yielding Different Selection –
Retailers and Manufacturers Need to Stay Current with the Audience They Serve
Number of Languages Spoken in the 15 Largest Metro Areas
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 27
However, No Matter Where You are In the US, Fresh Must Have Products Exist
All Regions Had These 6 Categories Growing Fastest – These are the Must Haves:
If everyone is winning with these
differentiating within these high growth categories is critical
Pre-Packaged Refrigerated Entrees**
Deli Prepared Appetizers
Pre-Packaged Refrigerated Meat**
Fresh Berries
Fresh Bakery Cakes
Deli Prepared Entrees
Source: Total Store View + Perimeter Market Advantage, MULO 52-weeks ending 3-29-19, ** Indicates Fixed Weight Only
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 28
Since There Has Been a Pendulum of Performance, We Will
Look at the Drivers Within Key Regions to Identify Opportunities
Source: Dollar Sales, IRI Total Store View + Perimeter Market Advantage, 52 weeks ending March 24, 2019 vs. Year Ago
% $ Change vs. YAGO
Low Growth High Growth
California Northeast West
Great Lakes Mid-South Southeast
South Central Plains
High Sales
Velocity
Low Sales
Velocity
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 29
West: Drivers of Growth Demonstrate A Region Not Afraid to Test, Learn, and
Differentiate Leading To High Growth and High Sales
The West represents 13% more than its fair share of fresh sales growth. Learn how to win from here.
Fast to Market on Trends | National leader in health and flavors
Diversified Selection | Millennials, Hispanics and Young Families –
high item counts and frequent changes
Differentiated Fresh | Produce and Meat anchor growth –
but offer beyond the basics
Incremental Trips | Discount, Supercenter & Premium –
supermarket growth is keeping pace
Source: IRI Household Panel data & IRI Market Advantage Total Store View TSV+Perimeter including Random Weight. 52 weeks ending 3-25-19
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 30
Northeast: Further Experimentation Needed to Keep Younger Consumers
Engaged and Propel Growth in Light of Increasing Competition
Northeast Population is Unique:
More 1-2 person HHs
More <35 single or married w/o kids
More 65+ than any region.
Opportunity to tailor product offerings to these
unique demographics.
Fresh Destination | Tie perimeter to center-store through solutions
for bigger baskets and win back share
Selection Experimentation | Seafood and Deli over-developed.
Meat, Produce and Bakery need new ideas.
Competition Coming | Eroding commodities in Produce and Meat
Anchored by Supermarkets | Highest velocity region
Source: IRI Household Panel data & IRI Market Advantage Total Store View TSV+Perimeter including Random Weight. 52 weeks ending 3-25-19
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 31
Great Lakes: Obstacles to Growth for this Low Growth and Moderate Sales Region
Point Towards the Need for Reinvention, Experimentation and Diversification
Opportunity to differentiate
across retailers and connect
better with today’s consumer
to drive growth.
Promotion Dependent | Yet increasingly ineffective in driving sales.
New tactics needed for future growth.
High Item Count in Basics | Younger consumers may not find
concepts for them.
Stale Assortment | Similar to 2015 when this region led the US in
growth without much change
Alt Formats Threaten | Walmart, Dollar, Aldi and Whole Foods draw
trips from supermarkets
Source: IRI Household Panel data & IRI Market Advantage Total Store View TSV+ Perimeter including Random Weight. 52 weeks ending 3-25-19
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 32
A Tale of Two Regions Example: Embracing Diversity through Assortment and
Reinvention to Propel Growth While Great Lakes Carries and Sells Less
Diverse population Fresh available in multiple channels
Similar fresh and center-store velocityHigh growth region and market
Diverse populationFresh available in multiple channels
Similar fresh and center-store velocityLow growth region and market
Where do Phoenix and Chicago differ?
Source: IRI Household Panel data & IRI Market Advantage Total Store View TSV+ Perimeter including Random Weight. 52 weeks ending 3-25-19
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 33
A Tale of Two Regions Example: What Does Phoenix Do Differently?
Meat Seafood Produce
Avg Weekly Items Per Store Selling
Phoenix Chicago
Assortment Diversity in Key Departments
Phoenix Retailers Lean in to High Growth Categories
Pre-packaged Refrigerated Entrees
48% more average items in Phoenix
58% higher weekly average sales
Pre-packaged Refrigerated Meats
38% more average items
130% higher weekly average sales
Source: IRI Household Panel data & IRI Market Advantage Total Store View TSV+ Perimeter including Random Weight. 52 weeks ending 3-25-19
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 34
Winning in Fresh Means Specific Selection Differentiators Across
the Departments; Supermarkets within a Mile of Each Other in Phoenix
Engagement Lies in Variety and Merchandising – Differentiated Experience is Critical
Source: IRI Staff Pictures, May 2019
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 35
You Can Further Manage Regional
Preferences by Evaluating WHO
MATTERS for Future Fresh Growth
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 36
Three Fresh Segments Represent $5B in Opportunity Over the Next 3 Years
The Opportunity Consumers Have Impact in Specific Regions and Markets
High Income Multi-Generation
5% of U.S. Households
11% of Fresh and F&B Dollars
Declining spend in both
fresh and center-store F&B
1 3
Diverse Middle Class Families
7% of U.S. Households
6% of Fresh and F&B Dollars
Flat spend in center-store F&B,
Slight Increase in fresh spending
Small Urban Households
4% of U.S. Households
2% of Fresh and F&B Dollars
Increasing spend in both
fresh and center-store F&B
2
Source: IRI Shopper Loyalty, CY 2018
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 37
Multi-Generational Upper IncomeOver-Index on Fresh and Center-Store, But Spending
for Both Declining Year Over Year Within Supermarkets
1
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 38
Multi-Generational Upper Income Households are Across the
Entire U.S., But Pay Close Attention to Higher Indexing Markets
Multi-Generational
Upper Income
Salt Lake City, UT
Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN
Hartford & New Haven, CT
Omaha, NE
Colorado Springs, CO
Boston, MA
Denver, CO
Baltimore, MD
Detroit, MI
Cincinnati, OH
Top 10 Markets
4%Annual
Projected
Population
Growth
maintainCurrent Fresh
Spending
per Household
Annually
$1.1BIncremental Fresh
Dollars in 3 Years, if
We Can Retain Fresh
Spending Levels
Source: IRI Shopper Loyalty and IRI Shopper Sights, Latest 52 weeks ending 3-24-19
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 39
Unique Opportunities for this Segment
“A store’s environment
will impact where I shop”
“I plan my shopping
trips online”
“I use mobile
coupon applications”
“
”
Focus on What Matters to These Multi-Generational Upper Income Households
What They Seek:
• Seeking good value for the price
• Health and wellness benefits
• Online delivery / curbside pickup
• Natural / specialty and Premium
experiences
Categories increasing
spend include fresh
meat alternatives
Items Also in the Basket Include:
Fresh Porkand Ribs
Deli AmericanCheese
FreshSeafood
Source: IRI Shopper Loyalty and IRI Shopper Sights, Latest 52 weeks ending 3-24-19
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 40
Boosting Baskets with Multi-Generational Upper Income
by Enhancing Digital / Online and In-Store Experiences
Advertise Serve online recipe ideas for 4+
portions; offer mobile coupon to
boost meat & deli basket
PromoteFresh juices stations
Drive TrafficDevelop in-store experiences like party-ready deli cheese trays with pairing suggestions and in-store cheese monger
Source: IRI Balancing the Consumer Pendulum, 2019
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 41
Middle Class Diverse Families• Spend on Both Fresh & Center-Store On Par with
National Average
• Spending in Supermarkets Flat Year Over Year
2
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 42
Middle Class
Diverse Families
Where Will These Programs Drive Growth Regionally
Laredo, TX
Brownsville, TX
El Paso, TX
Yuma, AZ
Fresno, CA
Bakersfield, CA
Corpus Christi, TX
Odessa, TX
San Antonio, TX
Salinas, CA
Lima, OH
Los Angeles, CA
Top 12 Markets
3%Annual
Projected
Population
Growth
2%Growth
in Fresh
Spending
Annually
$1.8BIncremental Fresh
Dollars in 3 Years, if
We Can Boost Fresh
Spending Levels
Source: IRI Shopper Loyalty and IRI Shopper Sights, Latest 52 weeks ending 3-24-19
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 43
Unique Opportunities for this Segment
“I prefer shopping
stores that carry more brands”
“I often go out of my way
to find new stores”
“I use in or on-pack coupons”
“
”
Focus on What Matters to These Middle Class Diverse Families
What They Seek:
• Convenience, prepared meals and solutions
• Organics
• Early adopters of online grocery
delivery
• Not as influenced by price and
competitive pricing
Week of May 13 is the Highest
Spending of any week – 14% more
than their 52 week average
More Middle Class Families Buy These Items
Week of May 13 than Other Households:
Fresh Bakery Bread
Berries Breakfast Meats
Fresh Bakery Donuts
Source: IRI Shopper Loyalty and IRI Shopper Sights, Latest 52 weeks ending 3-24-19
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 44
Make Life Easier for Middle Class Diverse Households
With Convenient and Appealing Offerings
Advertise On pack coupons for Organics
with “buy now” incentives
PromoteDevelop unique holiday and/or season
promos targeting these HHs (e.g.,
“Breakfast in Bed” for mom multi-
department discounts)
Drive Traffic Enhance meal solutions and/or
prepared meals with delivery options
Source: IRI Balancing the Consumer Pendulum, 2019
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 45
Small Low Income HouseholdsUnder-index on F&B spending at supermarkets
However, increasing spend in both fresh and center-store F&B
3
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 46
Small Low Income
HouseholdTailoring Programs to These Households
are Vital in the Southeast and Great Lakes
Greenville, MS
Albany, GA
Memphis, TN
Montgomery, AL
Norfolk, VA
Augusta, GA
Jackson, MS
Baton Rouge, LA
Macon, GA
Alexandria, LA
Baltimore, MD
Detroit, MI
Columbus, GA
Top Markets
flatAnnual
Projected
Population
Growth
9%Fresh
Dollar Sales
Growth Seen
in 2018
$1.7BIncremental Fresh
Dollars in 3 Years, if
We Can Retain Fresh
Spending Levels
Source: IRI Shopper Loyalty and IRI Shopper Sights, Latest 52 weeks ending 3-24-19
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 47
Unique Opportunities for this Segment
“Go out of my way to find new stores
and will travel to my favorites”
“Plan where I shop using paper
circulars and retailer websites”
“Use coupons from a variety of
sources: online, mobile, in-store”
“
”
Focus on What Matters to These Small Low Income Households
What They Seek:
• Fresh at mass, dollar and c-stores
• Supermarkets with locality and discounts
• Format and delivery innovations
• Ways to solve the meal
Incent to win their loyalty and bigger baskets; small urban
households purchased these items more often:• Shelf Stable Juices – 52% more trips
• Carbonated Soft Drinks – 25% more trips
• Fresh Pork – 23% more trips
When in their baskets, 1.6x – 2.6x larger total transaction size
Items Also in the Basket Include:
PackagedLunch Meats
Canned Fruitsand Vegetables
FreshChicken Breasts
Source: IRI Shopper Loyalty and IRI Shopper Sights, Latest 52 weeks ending 3-24-19
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 48
Small Low Income Households Require Different
Solutions and Messaging to Win Their Loyalty
Advertise Innovative delivery options and
creative mobile coupons
Promote Beverage and meal solutions for
different dayparts/occasions
Drive Traffic Personalized mailer showcasing
freshness and variety seafood
Source: IRI Balancing the Consumer Pendulum, 2019
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 49
Keep Key Shoppers in Your Stores by Considering Their Unique Needs
• Fresh Opportunity Households are worth $5B in growth in the next five years
• These segments are present, but certain markets and stores over-index for them
• These segments each have specific needs and tactics to win them
• High Income Multi-Generational: Online and in-store differentiated experiences
• Middle Class Diverse Families: Convenient and tailored offerings solution-based price incentives
• Low Income Small Households: Drive traffic on key basket anchors with in and out of store ads
Source: IRI Balancing the Consumer Pendulum, 2019
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 50
Balancing the Pendulum:
Let Us Show You How Retailers are Answering Needs
Store Within-a-Store
Concept
Kentucky
Deli Solution
Signage
Ohio
Touting Freshened
Up Fresh Ad
Boston
Source: IRI Staff and 210 Analytics Photos 2019
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 51
Balancing the Pendulum:
High Growth Regions Differentiating
Multi-Meal Program
Around Rotisserie Chicken
California
Unique Value-Add Meats
Washington
Ample, Organized Grab & Go
Deli with EBT Ad
Washington
Source: IRI Staff and 210 Analytics Photos 2019
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 52
Geographic Pendulum Summary: No Single Path
2 | Consumers Still Want FreshBeneficial fresh foods, even if pre-packaged, are growing rapidly across the U.S.
by meeting convenience, health needs
1 | Things Are Changing RapidlyFresh is not keeping pace as consumers seek new solutions and are more diverse than ever
4 | Connect With Opportunity Consumers$5 billion of growth is available in three consumer segments who reside in key markets.
Use fresh strategies these diverse groups want to win
3 | Embrace Diversity and ChangeGrowing regions and markets carry wider, differentiating assortment and lean into
trends quickly to keep competition at bay
© 2018 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 53
Questions& Answers
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 54© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI).
Confidential and Proprietary. 54
THANK YOU!Sally Lyons Wyatt
EVP, Center of Store & Produce
Jonna Parker, Principal
IRI Fresh Center of Excellence