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Sally Lyons Wyatt, EVP, IRI Center-of-Store & Produce Vertical Jonna Parker, Principal, IRI Fresh Center of Excellence May 23, 2019 BALANCING THE GEOGRAPHIC PENDULUM Top Trends in Fresh

BALANCING THE GEOGRAPHIC PENDULUM · 5/23/2019  · Jerry Goldsmith Spartan Nash Anthony Sattler C&S Wholesalers Teri Rose Kroger Jack Bell Save-A-Lot Paul Kneeland Gelsons Markets

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Page 1: BALANCING THE GEOGRAPHIC PENDULUM · 5/23/2019  · Jerry Goldsmith Spartan Nash Anthony Sattler C&S Wholesalers Teri Rose Kroger Jack Bell Save-A-Lot Paul Kneeland Gelsons Markets

Sally Lyons Wyatt, EVP, IRI Center-of-Store & Produce Vertical

Jonna Parker, Principal, IRI Fresh Center of Excellence

May 23, 2019

BALANCING THE GEOGRAPHIC PENDULUM

Top Trends in Fresh

Page 2: BALANCING THE GEOGRAPHIC PENDULUM · 5/23/2019  · Jerry Goldsmith Spartan Nash Anthony Sattler C&S Wholesalers Teri Rose Kroger Jack Bell Save-A-Lot Paul Kneeland Gelsons Markets

© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 2

FMI is the trade

association that serves as

the voice of food retail.

We assist food retailers in

their role of feeding families

and enriching lives.

Page 3: BALANCING THE GEOGRAPHIC PENDULUM · 5/23/2019  · Jerry Goldsmith Spartan Nash Anthony Sattler C&S Wholesalers Teri Rose Kroger Jack Bell Save-A-Lot Paul Kneeland Gelsons Markets

© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 3

The Association

Our members are food retailers, wholesales

and suppliers of all types and sizes

FMI provides comprehensive programs,

resources and advocacy for the food,

pharmacy and grocery retail industry

ASSET

PROTECTIONEDUCATION RESEARCH

FOOD SAFETY

& DEFENSE

GOVERNMENT

RELATIONS

SUSTAINABILITY

SUPPLY CHAIN

HEALTH & WELLNESS

PRIVATE BRANDS

FRESH FOODS INFORMATION

SERVICE

CENTER STORE

CONSUMER &

COMMUNITY AFFAIRSINDEPENDENT

OPERATOR

COMMUNICATION WHOLESALER

TECHNOLOGY

Page 4: BALANCING THE GEOGRAPHIC PENDULUM · 5/23/2019  · Jerry Goldsmith Spartan Nash Anthony Sattler C&S Wholesalers Teri Rose Kroger Jack Bell Save-A-Lot Paul Kneeland Gelsons Markets

© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 4

Fresh @ FMI

Fresh Foods

Emphasis on Fresh

‒ Produce

‒ Meat

‒ Seafood

‒ Deli / In-Store, Fresh Prepared Foods, Assortments

‒ Bakery

‒ Floral

FMI is committed to the growth and success of fresh companies and

their partners. FMI provides resources and networks that support the

interests of member companies throughout the global, fresh produce

supply chain, including family-owned, private and publicly traded

businesses as well as regional, national and international companies.

Rick SteinVice President, Fresh Foods

Food Marketing Institute

[email protected]

202.220.0700

Page 5: BALANCING THE GEOGRAPHIC PENDULUM · 5/23/2019  · Jerry Goldsmith Spartan Nash Anthony Sattler C&S Wholesalers Teri Rose Kroger Jack Bell Save-A-Lot Paul Kneeland Gelsons Markets

© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 5

FMI Fresh Foods

Research and Education

In-depth information, trends and insights

to foster innovation, take advantage of

new opportunities and help develop

winning strategies

Networking

Share ideas, explore best practices and

develop business relations

Advocacy

Understand what is going on in

Washington and make your voice heard

Page 6: BALANCING THE GEOGRAPHIC PENDULUM · 5/23/2019  · Jerry Goldsmith Spartan Nash Anthony Sattler C&S Wholesalers Teri Rose Kroger Jack Bell Save-A-Lot Paul Kneeland Gelsons Markets

© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 6

FMI Fresh Executive Committee (FEC)

The FEC is Comprised of FMI Member Companies, Retailers and Wholesalers

John Ruane (Chair)

Ahold USA

Rick Steigerwald (Co-Chair)

Lund Food Holdings, Inc.

Tom DeVries

Giant Eagle, Inc.

John Beretta

Albertsons, LLC

Dave Bornmann

Publix Super Markets, Inc.

Scott Bradley

Target Corporation

Jerry Chadwick

Lancaster Foods, LLC

Alex Corbishley

Target Corporation

Buddy Jones

MDI Distributors

Dan Koch

Associated Wholesale Grocers, Inc.

Nate Stewart

Hy-Vee

John Haggerty

Burris Logistics

Mark Hilton

Harris Teeter LLC

Terry Murphy

Wakefern Food Corporation

Kirk LaBoyteaux

Brookshire Grocery Company

Dan Murphy

SuperValu/UNFI

Pat Pessotto

Longo Brothers Fruit Markets Inc.

Nick Carlino

MDI Distributors

Don Sanderson

Meijer, Inc.

Geoff Waldau

Food Lion

John Grimes

Weis Markets

Rick Findlay

Fresh Thyme

Jim Lemke

CH Robinson Fresh

Steve Howard

Bristol Farms/Lazy Acres

Emily Coborn

Coborns

Jerry Goldsmith

Spartan Nash

Anthony Sattler

C&S Wholesalers

Teri Rose

Kroger

Jack Bell

Save-A-Lot

Paul Kneeland

Gelsons Markets

Scott Evans

Price Chopper/Mkt 32

Buddy Jones

MDI Distributors

Amanda Becker

Fairway Markets

Troy Vosburg

Festival Foods

John Beretta

Albertsons Co’s

Paul White

Luckys Markets

Manuel Gonzales

Northgate Gonzales

Reade Sievert

AWG

Nicole Wegman*

Wegmans Food Markets, Inc.

* Silent members

Page 7: BALANCING THE GEOGRAPHIC PENDULUM · 5/23/2019  · Jerry Goldsmith Spartan Nash Anthony Sattler C&S Wholesalers Teri Rose Kroger Jack Bell Save-A-Lot Paul Kneeland Gelsons Markets

© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 7

FMI Fresh Foods Leadership Council

John Ruane (Co-Chair)

Ahold USA

Rick Steigerwald (Co-Chair)

Lund Food Holdings, Inc.

All- FEC Members

FMI Fresh Executive Council

Chris Dubois

IRI

Michael Eardley

International Dairy-Deli-Bakery Assoc.

Jason Jerome

National Cattleman's Beef Association

Sarah Schmansky

Nielsen Perishables Group

Paul Mastronardi

Mastronardi Produce

David Sherrod

SE Produce Council

Tom Stenzel/Miriam Wolk

United Fresh Produce Assoc.

Julie Ann Potts/Eric Zito

North American Meat Institute

Tom Super

National Chicken Council

Jarrod Sutton

National Pork Board

Joe Watson

Produce Marketing Assoc.

Joe Weber

Smithfield Foods Inc.

Art Yerecic/Elizabeth Yerecic

Yerecic Label

Brad Roche

Hill Phoenix

Greg Livelli

Hussmann

Robb MacKie

American Bakers Assoc.

Jim Huston

Johnsonville

Chad Gregory

United Egg Producers

Eric Gassaway

Bayer

John Knorr

Phillips Seafood

Mike Celani

Wonderful

Jim Randazzo

Aqua Star Seafood

Jeff Thompson

Trident Seafood

Jeff Baker

Hormel Foods

Sally Lyons-Wyatt

IRI

Wendy Reinhardt Kapsak

Produce for Better Health (PBH)

Michael Lang

Invatron

Tom Daniel

Sterilox/Chemstar

Randy Evins

SAP

Tom Windish

Cargill

Michael Forrest/Ellisa Garling

Thomas Foods

Mark Molter

ADC.

Lance Jungmeyer

FPAA

Ray Fager

Kings Hawaiian

Page 8: BALANCING THE GEOGRAPHIC PENDULUM · 5/23/2019  · Jerry Goldsmith Spartan Nash Anthony Sattler C&S Wholesalers Teri Rose Kroger Jack Bell Save-A-Lot Paul Kneeland Gelsons Markets

© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 8

We’ve Been Discussing Top Trends in Fresh for Several Years…

Focus Has Been on Individual Trends

Source: Top Trends in Fresh 2016 - 2018

New Supply

Chains

d

Food

Transparency

d d

Convenience

d

Fresh

Prepared

d

Connected

Consumer

Holistic

Health

d

Customization

to Consumerism

d

d d

Atomization of

Personalization

d

LocalizationSocial &

Cultural

Alignment

Page 9: BALANCING THE GEOGRAPHIC PENDULUM · 5/23/2019  · Jerry Goldsmith Spartan Nash Anthony Sattler C&S Wholesalers Teri Rose Kroger Jack Bell Save-A-Lot Paul Kneeland Gelsons Markets

© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 9

Fresh is Imperative

Competition and complexity is fiercer

than ever but Fresh remains critical

to differentiate, grow and win

Page 10: BALANCING THE GEOGRAPHIC PENDULUM · 5/23/2019  · Jerry Goldsmith Spartan Nash Anthony Sattler C&S Wholesalers Teri Rose Kroger Jack Bell Save-A-Lot Paul Kneeland Gelsons Markets

© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 10

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 L52 YTD 2019

Fresh Perimeter Food & Bev (Ex Fresh)

Fresh Perimeter Has Grown Over $7B Since 2014, but Growth is Slowing

2.1%

5.0%

1.2%

2.0%

Gap Fresh +2.9 pts

F&B Minus FreshGap Fresh -0.8 pts

to F&B Minus Fresh

Source: Total Store View + Perimeter Market Advantage incl. Fixed Weight Fresh, MULO ending 12-2-18Source: Total Store View + Perimeter Market Advantage, MULO ending 3-24-19, Perimeter includes both FW/RW definition, Sales change vs. prior year by period

Page 11: BALANCING THE GEOGRAPHIC PENDULUM · 5/23/2019  · Jerry Goldsmith Spartan Nash Anthony Sattler C&S Wholesalers Teri Rose Kroger Jack Bell Save-A-Lot Paul Kneeland Gelsons Markets

© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 11

2019 Fresh Trends Educational Plan

The Store Size

Pendulum

How do large, medium and

small size footprints fare in

fresh?

The Total

Store Pendulum

How can both fresh

and center-store

win consumers?

The Geographic

Pendulum

How have different regions

and markets succeeded in

fresh?

The Consumer

Pendulum

2019 Fresh Trends –

Balancing the Consumer

Pendulum

MAY

23

JUL

25

OCT

24

May 23 July 25 October 24

Page 12: BALANCING THE GEOGRAPHIC PENDULUM · 5/23/2019  · Jerry Goldsmith Spartan Nash Anthony Sattler C&S Wholesalers Teri Rose Kroger Jack Bell Save-A-Lot Paul Kneeland Gelsons Markets

© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 12

In Case You Missed it – Key Learnings from Balancing the Consumer Pendulum

2018• Fresh sales grew only 1%

this past year, 3 % points less than 2014

• Center-store sales growth outperformed Fresh Foodsfor the first time in the decade

FUTURE is HERE and is DISRUPTIVE

• Millennials & Gen Z are most culturally diverse ever

• Growth lies in impact of the changing U.S. demographic landscape

• Generational, multi-cultural and socio-economic lenses reveal a critical path

CONSUMERS

• 3 key targets illustrate growth opportunities of nearly $5B

• Its not about wide distribution – its being distributed perfectly

• Fresh is increasing in importance – but interest in buying fresh at alternative channels is also up from past years

• Fresh has added $7B in sales since 2014

• Health and Convenience continue to be vital, impacting traditional categories

are key

what’s

seewe

working

https://www.iriworldwide.com/en-US/Insights/Webinars/Balancing-the-Consumer-Pendulum

Page 13: BALANCING THE GEOGRAPHIC PENDULUM · 5/23/2019  · Jerry Goldsmith Spartan Nash Anthony Sattler C&S Wholesalers Teri Rose Kroger Jack Bell Save-A-Lot Paul Kneeland Gelsons Markets

© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 13

14%Of total store growth

Within Multi-Outlet, Total Store Sales Continue

to Grow; Fresh Not Keeping Pace

Source: Total Store View + Perimeter Market Advantage, MULO 52-weeks ending 3-24-19

TOTAL STORE SALES

$799B

$12Bvs. Last Year

23%Of total store sales since 2015 butTOTAL FRESH PERIMETER

$180B

$1.6Bvs. Last Year

L-52 2019

24%2017

31%2015

Page 14: BALANCING THE GEOGRAPHIC PENDULUM · 5/23/2019  · Jerry Goldsmith Spartan Nash Anthony Sattler C&S Wholesalers Teri Rose Kroger Jack Bell Save-A-Lot Paul Kneeland Gelsons Markets

© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 14

The Fresh Perimeter Departments Make Up a Quarter of

Food & Beverage MULO Sales Driven by Produce and Meat

$799B – TOTAL STORE $573B – TOTAL FOOD & BEVERAGE

Source: Dollar Sales, Custom IRI Total Store View + Perimeter Market Advantage with FW/RW Combined for Perimeter Depts, MULO 52 weeks ending 3-24-19

Non Food & Edibles

Non-Food

$225B

General Food

$158B

Bev & Liquor

$98B

Dairy

$56B

Frozen

$51B

Refrigerated

$30B

Perimeter

Produce

$60B

Meat

$60B

Bakery (Aisle & ISB)

$29B

Deli Prepared

$13B

Deli Meat & Cheese

$8B

Seafood

$5B

Page 15: BALANCING THE GEOGRAPHIC PENDULUM · 5/23/2019  · Jerry Goldsmith Spartan Nash Anthony Sattler C&S Wholesalers Teri Rose Kroger Jack Bell Save-A-Lot Paul Kneeland Gelsons Markets

© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 15

3.4%

1.0%

BEVERAGES

2.3%

1.2%

FROZEN

1.1%

-0.6%

GENERAL FOOD

3.2%

1.6%

LIQUOR

3.2%

2.3%

REFRIGERATED

EDIBLES

1.9% 0.0%

PERIMETER

0.9% -0.3%$ % CHG VS. YAGO

UNIT % CHG VS. YAGO

1.6%

-1.1%

PKG & FRESH BAKERY

-0.3%

-2.2%

DELI CHEESE (RW)

0.1%

-0.3%

DELI MEAT (RW)

2.7%

0.9%

DELI PREPARED

0.3%

-0.2%

PRODUCE

2.0%

-1.0%

SEAFOOD

0.6%

0.0%

MEAT

0.7%

-1.0%

DAIRY

Many Center Store Food Departments Experiencing Both Dollar

and Unit Growth, Unlike Most Perimeter Departments

Source: Total Store View + Perimeter including FW & RW Custom Departments, Market Advantage, MULO 52-weeks ending 3-24-19

Page 16: BALANCING THE GEOGRAPHIC PENDULUM · 5/23/2019  · Jerry Goldsmith Spartan Nash Anthony Sattler C&S Wholesalers Teri Rose Kroger Jack Bell Save-A-Lot Paul Kneeland Gelsons Markets

© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 16

The Fastest Growing Fresh Categories Offer Convenience, Health and Indulgence

Change 52 Weeks Ending 3-24-19

+ Dollars | + Volume

Pre-Packaged Refrigerated

Entrees**

+$278M | +38M

Deli Prepared Appetizers

+$210M | +37M

Pre-Packaged Refrigerated Meat**

+$237M | +72MFresh Berries

+$216MB | +30MFresh Bakery Cakes

+$223M | +22M

Deli Prepared Entrees

+$142M | +3MFresh Beef Loin

+$157M | +14M

Pre-Packaged Refrigerated

Side Dishes**

+$180M | +14M

Source: Total Store View + Perimeter Market Advantage, MULO 52-weeks ending 3-29-19, ** Indicates Fixed Weight Only

Page 17: BALANCING THE GEOGRAPHIC PENDULUM · 5/23/2019  · Jerry Goldsmith Spartan Nash Anthony Sattler C&S Wholesalers Teri Rose Kroger Jack Bell Save-A-Lot Paul Kneeland Gelsons Markets

© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 17

The Pendulum is Shifting- The Geographic Pendulum: Regional Performance Varies

- Finding Balance and Identifying Growth Today, Tomorrow and in the Future

Page 18: BALANCING THE GEOGRAPHIC PENDULUM · 5/23/2019  · Jerry Goldsmith Spartan Nash Anthony Sattler C&S Wholesalers Teri Rose Kroger Jack Bell Save-A-Lot Paul Kneeland Gelsons Markets

© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 18

Fresh

Opportunity

HOUSEHOLD

01 | Buying Across CHANNELS

02 | Spending on FRESH FOODS

03 | Spending on FOOD & BEV

04 | Spending TRENDS

05 | Projected POPULATION GROWTH

At FMI Mid-Winter, We Discussed How Data and Insights Help Us

Find, Understand and Influence These New Households

HOUSEHOL

D

Economic

Cultural

Geography

Generation

Attitudes

Household

Make-up

HOUSEHOLD

Page 19: BALANCING THE GEOGRAPHIC PENDULUM · 5/23/2019  · Jerry Goldsmith Spartan Nash Anthony Sattler C&S Wholesalers Teri Rose Kroger Jack Bell Save-A-Lot Paul Kneeland Gelsons Markets

© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 19

Today, We Will Dive Into Regional Differences to Determine

Strategies and Tactics for Balancing the Geographic Pendulum

• How do fresh consumers differ by region?

• Which regions are successfully growing in fresh sales?

Which struggle and why?

• Where and how can we connect with the consumers who

will fuel growth?

• What are actions to consider to grow in any region?

Page 20: BALANCING THE GEOGRAPHIC PENDULUM · 5/23/2019  · Jerry Goldsmith Spartan Nash Anthony Sattler C&S Wholesalers Teri Rose Kroger Jack Bell Save-A-Lot Paul Kneeland Gelsons Markets

© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 20

Freshness and Health / Wellness Reign as Top

Reasons to Buy Fresh, But Specifics Vary Regionally

W

NC

NE

S

WEST | Variety and differentiation

Higher propensity towards taste exploration and

transparency factors

NORTH CENTRAL | Competitive pricing

6 in 10 choose what/where to buy based on pricing –

double that of the South

NORTHEAST | Most complex –

variety of factors

local, portability and convenient prep

SOUTH | Simpler than other regions

Less motivated to choose by price

Deals won’t get them to switch from favorites

Source: IRI Fresh Foods Survey, 2019 – Why do you buy fresh foods?

Page 21: BALANCING THE GEOGRAPHIC PENDULUM · 5/23/2019  · Jerry Goldsmith Spartan Nash Anthony Sattler C&S Wholesalers Teri Rose Kroger Jack Bell Save-A-Lot Paul Kneeland Gelsons Markets

© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 21

Fresh Perimeter Departments Remain Sluggish in Regions Where

Competition is Fierce for Consumers; West (ex California) Sets the Pace

The Complexity is What’s Driving the Disparity in Growth Performance

0.9%Perimeter

Total U.S. MULO

52-Week

Growth Rate

Source: Dollar Sales, IRI Total Store View + Perimeter Market Advantage, 52 weeks ending March 24, 2019 vs. Year Ago

Dollars % Change

-0.0% to 0.9%

0.9% to 1.4%

1.4% to 1.7%

1.9%

2.5%

Page 22: BALANCING THE GEOGRAPHIC PENDULUM · 5/23/2019  · Jerry Goldsmith Spartan Nash Anthony Sattler C&S Wholesalers Teri Rose Kroger Jack Bell Save-A-Lot Paul Kneeland Gelsons Markets

© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 22

Understand What Drives

Growth So We Can Gain

Dollars Anywhere

Two Regions Struggling to Find Growth Have the Highest Sales Velocity

So We Must Return the Pendulum to Growth and Sales

Strength to Capitalize on Fresh and Total Store Potential

$195k

$152k

$160k

$165k$136k

$148k$172k

$176k

Source: Dollar Sales, IRI Total Store View + Perimeter Market Advantage, 52 weeks ending March 24, 2019 vs. Year Ago

$165kPerimeter

Total U.S. MULO

Average Velocity

Page 23: BALANCING THE GEOGRAPHIC PENDULUM · 5/23/2019  · Jerry Goldsmith Spartan Nash Anthony Sattler C&S Wholesalers Teri Rose Kroger Jack Bell Save-A-Lot Paul Kneeland Gelsons Markets

© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 23

1/3 of Consumers in All Regions Said “Value for Price” is Much More Important Than

Last Year; as Fresh Food Becomes Ubiquitous Across Channels, Value is King

W

NC

NE

S

WEST | More Price and Value than other regions

NORTH CENTRAL | Value, price, & convenience

Health & wellness “free from” claims

NORTHEAST | Freshness & Health (especially caloric content)

“Free-from” attributes

SOUTH | Taste & Protein-rich

Antibiotic and pesticide-free foods

Source: IRI Fresh Foods Survey, 2019 – What is more/less important to you in buying fresh foods than last year?More important than last year or higher incidence

Less important than last year

Page 24: BALANCING THE GEOGRAPHIC PENDULUM · 5/23/2019  · Jerry Goldsmith Spartan Nash Anthony Sattler C&S Wholesalers Teri Rose Kroger Jack Bell Save-A-Lot Paul Kneeland Gelsons Markets

© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 24

Since Value Has Different Meanings to Consumers,

Channel Selection Varies Across Regions

W

NC

NE

S

WEST | supermarket; higher incidence of Club and Specialty;

Most curious about alternative means like delivery and meal kits

NORTH CENTRAL | primarily buy fresh at supermarkets;

Highest rate of Farmers markets (5%)

NORTHEAST | Traditional grocery still rules

SOUTH | Mass / Supercenter is primary fresh buying location for…

Source: IRI Fresh Foods Survey, 2019 – Where do you primarily buy fresh?;

10%

vs any other region

Of consumers - double

that of the NE or West

30%

Page 25: BALANCING THE GEOGRAPHIC PENDULUM · 5/23/2019  · Jerry Goldsmith Spartan Nash Anthony Sattler C&S Wholesalers Teri Rose Kroger Jack Bell Save-A-Lot Paul Kneeland Gelsons Markets

© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 25

Channel Selection Can Often Be Beyond Traditional

Bodegas and Experiential

Independents in the Northeast

Concentration of Farmer’s Markets

in North Central and East

40,000 U.S. grocery stores with heavier

concentration of smaller independents,

bodegas, specialty stores in the NE

Limited Assortment Discounters

Impacting Central for Fresh Foods

Aldi draws 11% of their national fresh

sales from Great Lakes – 4% higher than

the region normally contributes

8,600 Farmers Markets in the U.S. –

5,000 more than in 1994

Source: IRI Household Panel Data, latest 52 weeks 3-24-19; USDA

Page 26: BALANCING THE GEOGRAPHIC PENDULUM · 5/23/2019  · Jerry Goldsmith Spartan Nash Anthony Sattler C&S Wholesalers Teri Rose Kroger Jack Bell Save-A-Lot Paul Kneeland Gelsons Markets

© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 26

Diversity is Yielding Different Selection –

Retailers and Manufacturers Need to Stay Current with the Audience They Serve

Number of Languages Spoken in the 15 Largest Metro Areas

Page 27: BALANCING THE GEOGRAPHIC PENDULUM · 5/23/2019  · Jerry Goldsmith Spartan Nash Anthony Sattler C&S Wholesalers Teri Rose Kroger Jack Bell Save-A-Lot Paul Kneeland Gelsons Markets

© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 27

However, No Matter Where You are In the US, Fresh Must Have Products Exist

All Regions Had These 6 Categories Growing Fastest – These are the Must Haves:

If everyone is winning with these

differentiating within these high growth categories is critical

Pre-Packaged Refrigerated Entrees**

Deli Prepared Appetizers

Pre-Packaged Refrigerated Meat**

Fresh Berries

Fresh Bakery Cakes

Deli Prepared Entrees

Source: Total Store View + Perimeter Market Advantage, MULO 52-weeks ending 3-29-19, ** Indicates Fixed Weight Only

Page 28: BALANCING THE GEOGRAPHIC PENDULUM · 5/23/2019  · Jerry Goldsmith Spartan Nash Anthony Sattler C&S Wholesalers Teri Rose Kroger Jack Bell Save-A-Lot Paul Kneeland Gelsons Markets

© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 28

Since There Has Been a Pendulum of Performance, We Will

Look at the Drivers Within Key Regions to Identify Opportunities

Source: Dollar Sales, IRI Total Store View + Perimeter Market Advantage, 52 weeks ending March 24, 2019 vs. Year Ago

% $ Change vs. YAGO

Low Growth High Growth

California Northeast West

Great Lakes Mid-South Southeast

South Central Plains

High Sales

Velocity

Low Sales

Velocity

Page 29: BALANCING THE GEOGRAPHIC PENDULUM · 5/23/2019  · Jerry Goldsmith Spartan Nash Anthony Sattler C&S Wholesalers Teri Rose Kroger Jack Bell Save-A-Lot Paul Kneeland Gelsons Markets

© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 29

West: Drivers of Growth Demonstrate A Region Not Afraid to Test, Learn, and

Differentiate Leading To High Growth and High Sales

The West represents 13% more than its fair share of fresh sales growth. Learn how to win from here.

Fast to Market on Trends | National leader in health and flavors

Diversified Selection | Millennials, Hispanics and Young Families –

high item counts and frequent changes

Differentiated Fresh | Produce and Meat anchor growth –

but offer beyond the basics

Incremental Trips | Discount, Supercenter & Premium –

supermarket growth is keeping pace

Source: IRI Household Panel data & IRI Market Advantage Total Store View TSV+Perimeter including Random Weight. 52 weeks ending 3-25-19

Page 30: BALANCING THE GEOGRAPHIC PENDULUM · 5/23/2019  · Jerry Goldsmith Spartan Nash Anthony Sattler C&S Wholesalers Teri Rose Kroger Jack Bell Save-A-Lot Paul Kneeland Gelsons Markets

© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 30

Northeast: Further Experimentation Needed to Keep Younger Consumers

Engaged and Propel Growth in Light of Increasing Competition

Northeast Population is Unique:

More 1-2 person HHs

More <35 single or married w/o kids

More 65+ than any region.

Opportunity to tailor product offerings to these

unique demographics.

Fresh Destination | Tie perimeter to center-store through solutions

for bigger baskets and win back share

Selection Experimentation | Seafood and Deli over-developed.

Meat, Produce and Bakery need new ideas.

Competition Coming | Eroding commodities in Produce and Meat

Anchored by Supermarkets | Highest velocity region

Source: IRI Household Panel data & IRI Market Advantage Total Store View TSV+Perimeter including Random Weight. 52 weeks ending 3-25-19

Page 31: BALANCING THE GEOGRAPHIC PENDULUM · 5/23/2019  · Jerry Goldsmith Spartan Nash Anthony Sattler C&S Wholesalers Teri Rose Kroger Jack Bell Save-A-Lot Paul Kneeland Gelsons Markets

© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 31

Great Lakes: Obstacles to Growth for this Low Growth and Moderate Sales Region

Point Towards the Need for Reinvention, Experimentation and Diversification

Opportunity to differentiate

across retailers and connect

better with today’s consumer

to drive growth.

Promotion Dependent | Yet increasingly ineffective in driving sales.

New tactics needed for future growth.

High Item Count in Basics | Younger consumers may not find

concepts for them.

Stale Assortment | Similar to 2015 when this region led the US in

growth without much change

Alt Formats Threaten | Walmart, Dollar, Aldi and Whole Foods draw

trips from supermarkets

Source: IRI Household Panel data & IRI Market Advantage Total Store View TSV+ Perimeter including Random Weight. 52 weeks ending 3-25-19

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A Tale of Two Regions Example: Embracing Diversity through Assortment and

Reinvention to Propel Growth While Great Lakes Carries and Sells Less

Diverse population Fresh available in multiple channels

Similar fresh and center-store velocityHigh growth region and market

Diverse populationFresh available in multiple channels

Similar fresh and center-store velocityLow growth region and market

Where do Phoenix and Chicago differ?

Source: IRI Household Panel data & IRI Market Advantage Total Store View TSV+ Perimeter including Random Weight. 52 weeks ending 3-25-19

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A Tale of Two Regions Example: What Does Phoenix Do Differently?

Meat Seafood Produce

Avg Weekly Items Per Store Selling

Phoenix Chicago

Assortment Diversity in Key Departments

Phoenix Retailers Lean in to High Growth Categories

Pre-packaged Refrigerated Entrees

48% more average items in Phoenix

58% higher weekly average sales

Pre-packaged Refrigerated Meats

38% more average items

130% higher weekly average sales

Source: IRI Household Panel data & IRI Market Advantage Total Store View TSV+ Perimeter including Random Weight. 52 weeks ending 3-25-19

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Winning in Fresh Means Specific Selection Differentiators Across

the Departments; Supermarkets within a Mile of Each Other in Phoenix

Engagement Lies in Variety and Merchandising – Differentiated Experience is Critical

Source: IRI Staff Pictures, May 2019

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You Can Further Manage Regional

Preferences by Evaluating WHO

MATTERS for Future Fresh Growth

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Three Fresh Segments Represent $5B in Opportunity Over the Next 3 Years

The Opportunity Consumers Have Impact in Specific Regions and Markets

High Income Multi-Generation

5% of U.S. Households

11% of Fresh and F&B Dollars

Declining spend in both

fresh and center-store F&B

1 3

Diverse Middle Class Families

7% of U.S. Households

6% of Fresh and F&B Dollars

Flat spend in center-store F&B,

Slight Increase in fresh spending

Small Urban Households

4% of U.S. Households

2% of Fresh and F&B Dollars

Increasing spend in both

fresh and center-store F&B

2

Source: IRI Shopper Loyalty, CY 2018

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Multi-Generational Upper IncomeOver-Index on Fresh and Center-Store, But Spending

for Both Declining Year Over Year Within Supermarkets

1

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Multi-Generational Upper Income Households are Across the

Entire U.S., But Pay Close Attention to Higher Indexing Markets

Multi-Generational

Upper Income

Salt Lake City, UT

Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN

Hartford & New Haven, CT

Omaha, NE

Colorado Springs, CO

Boston, MA

Denver, CO

Baltimore, MD

Detroit, MI

Cincinnati, OH

Top 10 Markets

4%Annual

Projected

Population

Growth

maintainCurrent Fresh

Spending

per Household

Annually

$1.1BIncremental Fresh

Dollars in 3 Years, if

We Can Retain Fresh

Spending Levels

Source: IRI Shopper Loyalty and IRI Shopper Sights, Latest 52 weeks ending 3-24-19

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Unique Opportunities for this Segment

“A store’s environment

will impact where I shop”

“I plan my shopping

trips online”

“I use mobile

coupon applications”

Focus on What Matters to These Multi-Generational Upper Income Households

What They Seek:

• Seeking good value for the price

• Health and wellness benefits

• Online delivery / curbside pickup

• Natural / specialty and Premium

experiences

Categories increasing

spend include fresh

meat alternatives

Items Also in the Basket Include:

Fresh Porkand Ribs

Deli AmericanCheese

FreshSeafood

Source: IRI Shopper Loyalty and IRI Shopper Sights, Latest 52 weeks ending 3-24-19

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Boosting Baskets with Multi-Generational Upper Income

by Enhancing Digital / Online and In-Store Experiences

Advertise Serve online recipe ideas for 4+

portions; offer mobile coupon to

boost meat & deli basket

PromoteFresh juices stations

Drive TrafficDevelop in-store experiences like party-ready deli cheese trays with pairing suggestions and in-store cheese monger

Source: IRI Balancing the Consumer Pendulum, 2019

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Middle Class Diverse Families• Spend on Both Fresh & Center-Store On Par with

National Average

• Spending in Supermarkets Flat Year Over Year

2

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Middle Class

Diverse Families

Where Will These Programs Drive Growth Regionally

Laredo, TX

Brownsville, TX

El Paso, TX

Yuma, AZ

Fresno, CA

Bakersfield, CA

Corpus Christi, TX

Odessa, TX

San Antonio, TX

Salinas, CA

Lima, OH

Los Angeles, CA

Top 12 Markets

3%Annual

Projected

Population

Growth

2%Growth

in Fresh

Spending

Annually

$1.8BIncremental Fresh

Dollars in 3 Years, if

We Can Boost Fresh

Spending Levels

Source: IRI Shopper Loyalty and IRI Shopper Sights, Latest 52 weeks ending 3-24-19

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Unique Opportunities for this Segment

“I prefer shopping

stores that carry more brands”

“I often go out of my way

to find new stores”

“I use in or on-pack coupons”

Focus on What Matters to These Middle Class Diverse Families

What They Seek:

• Convenience, prepared meals and solutions

• Organics

• Early adopters of online grocery

delivery

• Not as influenced by price and

competitive pricing

Week of May 13 is the Highest

Spending of any week – 14% more

than their 52 week average

More Middle Class Families Buy These Items

Week of May 13 than Other Households:

Fresh Bakery Bread

Berries Breakfast Meats

Fresh Bakery Donuts

Source: IRI Shopper Loyalty and IRI Shopper Sights, Latest 52 weeks ending 3-24-19

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Make Life Easier for Middle Class Diverse Households

With Convenient and Appealing Offerings

Advertise On pack coupons for Organics

with “buy now” incentives

PromoteDevelop unique holiday and/or season

promos targeting these HHs (e.g.,

“Breakfast in Bed” for mom multi-

department discounts)

Drive Traffic Enhance meal solutions and/or

prepared meals with delivery options

Source: IRI Balancing the Consumer Pendulum, 2019

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Small Low Income HouseholdsUnder-index on F&B spending at supermarkets

However, increasing spend in both fresh and center-store F&B

3

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Small Low Income

HouseholdTailoring Programs to These Households

are Vital in the Southeast and Great Lakes

Greenville, MS

Albany, GA

Memphis, TN

Montgomery, AL

Norfolk, VA

Augusta, GA

Jackson, MS

Baton Rouge, LA

Macon, GA

Alexandria, LA

Baltimore, MD

Detroit, MI

Columbus, GA

Top Markets

flatAnnual

Projected

Population

Growth

9%Fresh

Dollar Sales

Growth Seen

in 2018

$1.7BIncremental Fresh

Dollars in 3 Years, if

We Can Retain Fresh

Spending Levels

Source: IRI Shopper Loyalty and IRI Shopper Sights, Latest 52 weeks ending 3-24-19

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Unique Opportunities for this Segment

“Go out of my way to find new stores

and will travel to my favorites”

“Plan where I shop using paper

circulars and retailer websites”

“Use coupons from a variety of

sources: online, mobile, in-store”

Focus on What Matters to These Small Low Income Households

What They Seek:

• Fresh at mass, dollar and c-stores

• Supermarkets with locality and discounts

• Format and delivery innovations

• Ways to solve the meal

Incent to win their loyalty and bigger baskets; small urban

households purchased these items more often:• Shelf Stable Juices – 52% more trips

• Carbonated Soft Drinks – 25% more trips

• Fresh Pork – 23% more trips

When in their baskets, 1.6x – 2.6x larger total transaction size

Items Also in the Basket Include:

PackagedLunch Meats

Canned Fruitsand Vegetables

FreshChicken Breasts

Source: IRI Shopper Loyalty and IRI Shopper Sights, Latest 52 weeks ending 3-24-19

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Small Low Income Households Require Different

Solutions and Messaging to Win Their Loyalty

Advertise Innovative delivery options and

creative mobile coupons

Promote Beverage and meal solutions for

different dayparts/occasions

Drive Traffic Personalized mailer showcasing

freshness and variety seafood

Source: IRI Balancing the Consumer Pendulum, 2019

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Keep Key Shoppers in Your Stores by Considering Their Unique Needs

• Fresh Opportunity Households are worth $5B in growth in the next five years

• These segments are present, but certain markets and stores over-index for them

• These segments each have specific needs and tactics to win them

• High Income Multi-Generational: Online and in-store differentiated experiences

• Middle Class Diverse Families: Convenient and tailored offerings solution-based price incentives

• Low Income Small Households: Drive traffic on key basket anchors with in and out of store ads

Source: IRI Balancing the Consumer Pendulum, 2019

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Balancing the Pendulum:

Let Us Show You How Retailers are Answering Needs

Store Within-a-Store

Concept

Kentucky

Deli Solution

Signage

Ohio

Touting Freshened

Up Fresh Ad

Boston

Source: IRI Staff and 210 Analytics Photos 2019

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Balancing the Pendulum:

High Growth Regions Differentiating

Multi-Meal Program

Around Rotisserie Chicken

California

Unique Value-Add Meats

Washington

Ample, Organized Grab & Go

Deli with EBT Ad

Washington

Source: IRI Staff and 210 Analytics Photos 2019

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Geographic Pendulum Summary: No Single Path

2 | Consumers Still Want FreshBeneficial fresh foods, even if pre-packaged, are growing rapidly across the U.S.

by meeting convenience, health needs

1 | Things Are Changing RapidlyFresh is not keeping pace as consumers seek new solutions and are more diverse than ever

4 | Connect With Opportunity Consumers$5 billion of growth is available in three consumer segments who reside in key markets.

Use fresh strategies these diverse groups want to win

3 | Embrace Diversity and ChangeGrowing regions and markets carry wider, differentiating assortment and lean into

trends quickly to keep competition at bay

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Questions& Answers

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Confidential and Proprietary. 54

THANK YOU!Sally Lyons Wyatt

EVP, Center of Store & Produce

Jonna Parker, Principal

IRI Fresh Center of Excellence