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26 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN JUNE 2002 RODGER DOYLE news SCAN T he blue-collar middle class in the U.S. was built on manufacturing production jobs, but their number has dwindled. In major cities of the North, as the chart shows, the decline has been particularly steep. Fur- thermore, pay for these jobs, unlike that for highly skilled workers such as engineers, has declined relative to the national average. Sev- eral decades ago the typical production-line job did not require advanced skills but was unionized and so paid at or above the aver- age. By 1997, however, production-line pay dropped below the average in most areas of the U.S., except where unions were still strong, such as in Detroit. As manufacturing jobs dried up and old- er workers took early retirement, young peo- ple, instead of becoming assemblers or ma- chine operators, became janitors and waiters. Such service-sector positions generally paid less than production work. The better-paying jobs were in hard-to-reach suburbs. These disincentives left many young men unemployed. At about the same time, for rea- sons that are still not completely understood but that may include a dearth of eligible wage-earning men, the number of unmarried teenage mothers soared. Generally, these girls were not only economically insecure but lacked parenting skills, and so it is not sur- prising that their children tended to be dis- advantaged. The children, moreover, grew up in neighborhoods that were coming apart. Churches, social clubs and unionsespecial- ly in black communitieswere dissolving, in part because higher-income people fled, de- priving the areas of key resources and role models for children. Black newspapers, once a vibrant force in many communities, all but disappeared. These developments contributed to the surge in youth gangs and crime beginning in the 1960s. Other changes fed the crime wave, such as a large increase in the number of young men between the ages of 18 and 35, the most crime-prone age group, and the in- creasing availability of illegal drugs, partic- ularly crack, which appeared in the 1980s. Loss of jobs, together with a shortage of affordable housing that followed neighbor- hood gentrification and failure to maintain ex- isting housing, added to the rising number of homeless people beginning in the 1970s. The legally mandated emptying of psychiatric hos- pitals was a factor in escalated homelessness, though apparently not a precipitating cause. There are signs of improvement through- out the country as a whole. The number of babies born to teenage mothers has followed a downward trend since 1994; the poverty rate is below the level of a decade ago; drug use is down from the high levels of the 1980s; and most significantly, crime rates have plummeted since 1992. But other signals suggest that the legacy of deindustrialization lingers. Wages of the bot- tom quarter of Americans have improved lit- tle in the past 25 years, and unions, which pro- vided a measure of stability to working-class neighborhoods, have been severely weakened. According to the U.S. Conference of Mayors, homelessness and hunger went up sharply last year. Perhaps the most troubling news is that employment among young, undereducated black males fell from 62 percent in 1979 to 52 percent by the period 1999–2000, a develop- ment that probably traces in part to the decline of manufacturing production jobs. Rodger Doyle can be reached at [email protected] Bad Things Happen HOW DEINDUSTRIALIZATION HAS AFFECTED COMMUNITIES BY RODGER DOYLE BY THE NUMBERS Pay of manufacturing production workers in 1997 as a percent of average pay in: Los Angeles 68 Chicago 82 San Jose, Calif. 73 Orange County, Calif. 76 New York City 46 Houston 88 Phoenix 85 Detroit 111 San Diego 84 Cleveland 105 Philadelphia 91 Pittsburgh 103 Boston 89 U.S. metropolitan areas 88 SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, Census of Manufactures. Data are for home counties of cities. In 1997 production workers accounted for 72 percent of all manufacturing employment. FAST FACTS: PAY BELOW PAR 800 600 400 200 0 Manufacturing Production Workers (thousands) 1940 1960 1980 Year 2000 PHILADELPHIA DETROIT CHICAGO NEW YORK CITY COPYRIGHT 2002 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, INC.

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Page 1: Bad Things Happen

26 S C I E N T I F I C A M E R I C A N J U N E 2 0 0 2

RO

DG

ER

DO

YLE

newsSCAN

The blue-collar middle class in the U.S.was built on manufacturing productionjobs, but their number has dwindled. In

major cities of the North, as the chart shows,the decline has been particularly steep. Fur-thermore, pay for these jobs, unlike that forhighly skilled workers such as engineers, hasdeclined relative to the national average. Sev-eral decades ago the typical production-linejob did not require advanced skills but wasunionized and so paid at or above the aver-age. By 1997, however, production-line paydropped below the average in most areas ofthe U.S., except where unions were stillstrong, such as in Detroit.

As manufacturing jobs dried up and old-er workers took early retirement, young peo-ple, instead of becoming assemblers or ma-chine operators, became janitors and waiters.Such service-sector positions generally paidless than production work. The better-payingjobs were in hard-to-reach suburbs.

These disincentives left many young menunemployed. At about the same time, for rea-sons that are still not completely understoodbut that may include a dearth of eligiblewage-earning men, the number of unmarriedteenage mothers soared. Generally, these girlswere not only economically insecure butlacked parenting skills, and so it is not sur-prising that their children tended to be dis-

advantaged. The children, moreover, grewup in neighborhoods that were coming apart.Churches, social clubs and unions—especial-ly in black communities—were dissolving, inpart because higher-income people fled, de-priving the areas of key resources and rolemodels for children. Black newspapers, oncea vibrant force in many communities, all butdisappeared.

These developments contributed to thesurge in youth gangs and crime beginning inthe 1960s. Other changes fed the crime wave,such as a large increase in the number ofyoung men between the ages of 18 and 35,the most crime-prone age group, and the in-creasing availability of illegal drugs, partic-ularly crack, which appeared in the 1980s.

Loss of jobs, together with a shortage ofaffordable housing that followed neighbor-hood gentrification and failure to maintain ex-isting housing, added to the rising number ofhomeless people beginning in the 1970s. Thelegally mandated emptying of psychiatric hos-pitals was a factor in escalated homelessness,though apparently not a precipitating cause.

There are signs of improvement through-out the country as a whole. The number ofbabies born to teenage mothers has followeda downward trend since 1994; the povertyrate is below the level of a decade ago; druguse is down from the high levels of the 1980s;and most significantly, crime rates haveplummeted since 1992.

But other signals suggest that the legacy ofdeindustrialization lingers. Wages of the bot-tom quarter of Americans have improved lit-tle in the past 25 years, and unions, which pro-vided a measure of stability to working-classneighborhoods, have been severely weakened.According to the U.S. Conference of Mayors,homelessness and hunger went up sharply lastyear. Perhaps the most troubling news is thatemployment among young, undereducatedblack males fell from 62 percent in 1979 to 52percent by the period 1999–2000, a develop-ment that probably traces in part to the declineof manufacturing production jobs.

Rodger Doyle can be reached [email protected]

Bad Things HappenHOW DEINDUSTRIALIZATION HAS AFFECTED COMMUNITIES BY RODGER DOYLE

BY

THE

NU

MB

ER

S

Pay of manufacturing productionworkers in 1997 as a percent of average pay in:

Los Angeles 68

Chicago 82

San Jose, Calif. 73

Orange County, Calif. 76

New York City 46

Houston 88

Phoenix 85

Detroit 111

San Diego 84

Cleveland 105

Philadelphia 91

Pittsburgh 103

Boston 89

U.S. metropolitan areas 88

SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, Census ofManufactures. Data are for home countiesof cities. In 1997 production workersaccounted for 72 percent of allmanufacturing employment.

FAST FACTS:PAY BELOW PAR

800

600

400

200

0

Man

ufac

turin

g Pr

oduc

tion

Wor

kers

(tho

usan

ds)

1940 1960 1980Year

2000

PHILADELPHIA

DETROIT

CHICAGO

NEW YORK CITY

COPYRIGHT 2002 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, INC.