BackgroundBackground to observing system to observing system assessment for the Indian Oceanassessment for the Indian Ocean

Indian Ocean Modeling WorkshopIndian Ocean Modeling WorkshopIPRC, Honolulu, November 2004IPRC, Honolulu, November 2004

Gary MeyersGary Meyers•• Unique geography and physicsUnique geography and physics

(a unique heat engine)(a unique heat engine)•• Unique social, economic and political Unique social, economic and political

conditionsconditions

History of planningHistory of planning

•• OceanObsOceanObs_99, St Raphael, France_99, St Raphael, France•• SOCIO_2000, Perth, AustraliaSOCIO_2000, Perth, Australia•• IOGOOS 1IOGOOS 1stst & 2& 2ndnd Confr’sConfr’s. 2002, 2004. 2002, 2004•• CLIVAR/GOOS Indian Ocean Panel, 2004, CLIVAR/GOOS Indian Ocean Panel, 2004,

PunePune, India, India

Attributes of the OSAttributes of the OS

•• Long term & sustainedLong term & sustained•• MultiMulti--national supportnational support•• Complementary satellite & Complementary satellite & in situ in situ systemssystems•• Priority for realPriority for real--time datatime data•• Free and open data accessFree and open data access

Draft plan for an integrated OSDraft plan for an integrated OSSatellite ALT, wind, SST, colorSatellite ALT, wind, SST, color

Moorings

XBT’s: HD&FR lines

Argo & Drifters

RT Tide Gauges

Boundry regions

Model-data assim.

Data and product mgm’t

The integrated OSThe integrated OSChallenge to the workshop!Challenge to the workshop!

“Observe locally, model regionally ,

think globally”C. Kennel, SIO Director

What is the right mix of observation types?

Observing system simulationsObserving system simulations

•• Andreas SchillerAndreas Schiller•• Raghu MurtuguddeRaghu Murtugudde•• Tony LeeTony Lee•• GabeGabe VecchiVecchi•• Yukio Masumoto & H.Yukio Masumoto & H. SajiSaji•• + some observation people+ some observation people

Forward plansForward plans——Friday Friday 08:3008:30 IPRC IPRC ConfrConfr RmRmPOST Bldg. POST Bldg. RmRm 404404

Research issues, timeResearch issues, time--scales scales and impactsand impacts

•• IntraseasonalIntraseasonal disturbances disturbances •• Monsoon cyclesMonsoon cycles•• Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Indian Ocean Dipole Mode •• Global warmingGlobal warming•• and others….and others….

Indian Ocean and ClimateIndian Ocean and ClimateSocietal IssuesSocietal Issues

Agriculture (soil, rainfall)Storm surges

Fisheries Land use changeMaritime fcsts Floods Climate changeSafety & Rescue Drought/mitigation Rain fall trendsEnviron. Mgmt Haze Water Mgmt

Sea level riseTransport Tourism … Retail

Industrial operations (mining)New technology/industry

Defence ← Research and knowledge →← Financial sector →

day(s) seasons decadal

“Observe globally, model regionally, think locally”“Observe globally, model regionally, think locally”C. Kennel, Director SIOC. Kennel, Director SIO

Indian Ocean and Climate Indian Ocean and Climate Science IssuesScience Issues

Diurnal cycle physics SST trends

Skin/bulk SST Monsoon cycle Change in T/Ssubduction

Biogeochemical Intra-seasonalecosystem Oscillation Cross-eq.

Bay of Bengal convection cellMoisture transport to subtrp.

NW cloud bands Seasonal to Inter-Marine/ocean/coastal annual time-scales

predictability Indian Ocean DipoleENSO → IOBoundary currents

diurnal 10-20 d 1, 2, 4 yr

day(s) seasons decadal

IntraIntra--seasonal disturbancesseasonal disturbances

Prediction--days to weeks lead-timeTropical basin scale circul’n & T(z), S(z)4-Dimensional ML dynamics & barrier layerCoupling ML<->Subsurf.

Enhancement• Basin scale array• Need integrated OS

40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100

Longitude (°E)

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Latit

ude

(°N)

INDIA

TAO mooringsOOS moorings

ADCP

Proposed locations of the PMEL TAO and ADCP moorings (red dots)along with the existing Indian OOS mooring locations (blue open circles).Also proposed are the hydrographic stations between 2°N and 2°Sat 0.5° interval along 80.5°E.

Monsoon cyclesMonsoon cycles

•• Heat balance of Heat balance of trptrp. . Indian OceanIndian Ocean

•• Basin scale Basin scale circulationcirculation

•• Vertical processes Vertical processes ((subductionsubduction, , upwelling)upwelling)

•• Boundary regionsBoundary regions

EnhancementsEnhancements----Complete float and Complete float and

drifter arraysdrifter arrays----WBC WBC obsobs.

Cross Eq. Cell

.

InterInter--annual variationannual variation

•• Seasonal climate Seasonal climate predictionprediction

•• IOZDM/ENSO connectionsIOZDM/ENSO connections•• Failure of Failure of CGCM’sCGCM’s•• Initializ’nInitializ’n, AGCM, ML , AGCM, ML

physicsphysicsEnhancementEnhancement——All of the All of the

above + finalize XBT line above + finalize XBT line sampling

Wijffels and Meyers (2004)

sampling

Global warming and decadal Global warming and decadal variationvariation

Indian Ocean warming 1900-1970 (°C per century)

40 60 80 100 120

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2Indian Ocean warming 1970-1999 (°C per century)

40 60 80 100 120

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

P McIntosh

Global warming and decadal Global warming and decadal variationvariation

•• Predict regional climate change and sea level Predict regional climate change and sea level riserise

•• Understand future Understand future circ’lncirc’ln, structure and heat , structure and heat budgetbudget

•• Validate the climate modelValidate the climate modelEnhancementEnhancement——All of the above + real time tide All of the above + real time tide

gauge networkgauge network----20 existing, 620 existing, 6--10 in planning stage10 in planning stage----How many and where needed?How many and where needed?----Also relevant to the fast time scalesAlso relevant to the fast time scales

Implementation PlanningImplementation Planning

CLIVAR/GOOS Indian Ocean Panel is CLIVAR/GOOS Indian Ocean Panel is preparing document entitled:preparing document entitled:

Understanding the role of the Indian Ocean in the climate Understanding the role of the Indian Ocean in the climate systemsystem——implementation plan for sustained observations implementation plan for sustained observations (in preparation)(in preparation)

•• Contains review of research issues, status of existing OS Contains review of research issues, status of existing OS elements and forward planelements and forward plan

•• Boundary regions not yet fully addressedBoundary regions not yet fully addressed

RV RV SagarSagar KanyaKanya CruiseCruiseOctoberOctober--November 2004November 2004

! 3 ATLAS & 1 ADCP Mooring

! 1.5°S, 0°, 1.5°N along 80.5°E

! ATLAS enhanced with current meters, salinity, rainfall, SW; in addtion, LW & atmospheric pressure on central mooring

! Expect to continue and expand with Indian (NIO, NIOT, DOD/NCAOR, etc) and other institutions.

RVRV Sagar KanyaSagar Kanya CruiseCruiseOctoberOctober--November 2004November 2004

40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100

Longitude (°E)

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Latit

ude

(°N

)

INDIA

TAO mooringsOOS moorings

ADCP

Proposed locations of the PMEL TAO and ADCP moorings (red dots)along with the existing Indian OOS mooring locations (blue open circles).Also proposed are the hydrographic stations between 2°N and 2°Sat 0.5° interval along 80.5°E.

•• 41 Day Cruise41 Day Cruise•• 5 days for 5 days for

ATLAS/ADCPATLAS/ADCP•• NOAA/PMEL in NOAA/PMEL in

collaboration collaboration with NIO and with NIO and NCAORNCAOR

First Data fromFirst Data fromIndian Ocean Indian Ocean MooringMooringat 0°, 80.5°Eat 0°, 80.5°E

DeployedDeployed22 October 200422 October 2004

• El• El NiñoNiño amplitude, duration, timingamplitude, duration, timing• West coast US rainfall• West coast US rainfall• Tropical storms and hurricanes• Tropical storms and hurricanes

Atmospheric Atmospheric TeleconnectionsTeleconnections from the from the

Indian Ocean:Indian Ocean:MaddenMadden--Julian OscillationJulian Oscillation

cloudy/wet clear/dry

Cloudiness & Rainfall (OLR, 5°N-5°S) The Madden-Julian

Oscillation and Stochastic Forcing of El Niño

June 2001

Convective flare-ups occur every 30-60 days over the Indian Ocean. These flare-ups are characterized by towering cumulus clouds, rainfall, and westerly surface winds that propagate into the Pacific sector to affect the timing, amplitude, and duration of El Niño.

Aug 2003

Indian | Pacific | AtlanticMcPhaden, 2004, BAMS

Atmospheric Atmospheric TeleconnectionsTeleconnections

U.S. West Coast Rainfall Tropical Storms

Indian Ocean Indian Ocean Science Science MotivationMotivation

Improved description, understanding and ability to predict:

! Seasonal monsoon variability

! Intraseasonal oscillations

! Indian Ocean “Dipole”

! Decadal warming trends

! Other

Attributes! Long term & sustained

! Multi-national support

! Complements satellite & other in situ systems

! Priority for real-time data

! Free and open data access via GTS and WWW

Draft Strategy for Draft Strategy for an Indian Ocean an Indian Ocean Moored Buoy Moored Buoy ArrayArray