Back To Basics: A Return to the Essentials of Urban Growth

Presentation by Joel Kotkin, Presidential Fellow, Chapman UniversityConfederation of Danish IndustriesCopenhagen, April 2, 2008

“Every city is in a natural state of war with every other, not indeed proclaimed by heralds, but everlasting.”

Plato, 4th Century BC

CompetitionCompetitionBetween CitiesBetween Cities

and Regions is a and Regions is a Fact of LifeFact of Life

-- and has been for -- and has been for Over two millenniaOver two millennia

Rise and Fall of Cities

“Human prosperity does

not abide long in one place”

Herodotus Greek Historian 5th Century BC

• Inability to absorb newcomersInability to absorb newcomers• Lack of upward mobilityLack of upward mobility• Inattention to basic infrastructureInattention to basic infrastructure• Lack of shared common cultureLack of shared common culture• Decline of Family Decline of Family

Families as History’s Bedrock

“…the good news from the recovered history of the family: This smallest and seemingly most fragile of institutions is proving itself to be mankind’s bedrock as well as its fault line .” --- historian Steven Ozment

The miracle of toleration was to be found, “wherever the community of trade convened.”

The Cosmopolitan City

French historian Fernand Braudel on Venice, Antwerp, Amsterdam and

London in the early Modern Period

The Expansion to Outsider Groups “the honor that

knowledge will give us will be entirely ours, and it will not be taken from us by the thief’s skill…or by the passage of time.”

Louise Labé16th Century French Author

“there is no sin but ignorance”

Christopher Marlowe,1576

New Attitudes and Knowledge Shift the Global Balance of Power

In 1601, Britain’s revenues were less than a tenth of Mogul India’s; within two hundred years, the relationship was totally reversed in England’s favor by a similar margin

Ibn Khaldun

14th Century Arab historian

“Attacks on people’s property remove the

incentive to acquire and gain property”

The Key to the first Great City “The Greeks boasted of

their ‘useless’ art and Egypt’s legacy lay in idle pyramids, but what were these compared to the fourteen aqueducts that brought water to Rome?”

A Roman Historian

Arts and Culture: Arts and Culture: A Look Back in TimeA Look Back in Time• Great Cultural Centers generally rest upon

commercial success

• Venice, Florence, Amsterdam, London, New York, Los Angeles all became cultural centers after developing an expanding economy and strong middle class

• Patrons of arts, not the public, key to development of cultural institutions from Macenas to the Medici, Carnegie and the Rockefellers of the 20th Century to today’s multi-billionaires

America’s Talent: Laying Foundation of

the Future• National Road proposed by Jefferson

(1806)• Period of Canal Building (1800-1850)• Construction of Railroads (1840-1900)• Carnegie Libraries• Interstate Highways (1930-1970)• Airports, Telecommunications

1880-1920 Progressive Reform • Reformers in Europe, US

and other industrial countries develop new sanitation systems

• Development of parks in cities in Europe, the US and Australia

• Commuter trains spur development of suburbs to bring people to the countryside

Depression Era: Works Progress Administration

• Majority of Expenditures into “hard” infrastructure such as roads, bridges, airports, schools, electrification

• Arts less than 7% of budget

• Employed 3 million workers with roughly 10 million dependents

• Employed 175,000 engineers

US : Forgetting the Basics Average Public Capital Value and U.S. Population Growth

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1960 1970 1980 1990 19990

50,000,000

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

300,000,000

Percent "Core Infrastructure" Capital ValueGrowth (scale left)

US Population (scale right)

Sources: Demographia (2006) and Calvert-Henderson (2006)

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

1917

1927

1937

1947

1957

1967

1977

1987

1997

Class Inequality: One result of fading infrastructure spending

The top decile income share, 1917 - 2002

Identifying Key Trends• No simple formula and there are

almost always exceptions to every rule

• Aging Population threatens Europe, US less so

• Cities Moving away from central mission

• Need to focus on sustainable economics and family friendly environment to maintain middle class

• Sustainable culture must be based on liberal principles and economic opportunity

Long Term Demographics—The Recent Past

Annual Average Population Growth, 1997-2007

Source: U.S. Census International Database

Long Term Demographics—The Advanced Countries

Projected Population Growth, 2007-2050

Source: U.S. Census International Database

Getting Older SlowerPopulation Over 65

Source: U.S. Census International Database

Roots of Current Urban Problems

• Difficult city administration forces businesses to periphery• Inattention to basic urban infrastructure• Lack of focus on expanding middle class

The Ephemeral City: The Future of

the Core?

“a bazaar, a great gallery of shops and places of concourse and

rendezvous.”

H.G. Wells — description of urban centers in the future

Thoughts on Ephemeral Cities: A Model for Europe’s cities?

Mayor Klaus Wowereit on Berlin

Kevin Starr on San Francisco

“Poor but sexy."

“A cross between Carmel and Calcutta”

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

San Francisco

Seattle

Boston

Washington

Denver

New York

Los Angeles

Houston

Phoenix

United States

2000 1990

Cities without ChildrenPercent Less than 18 Years, Select Major U.S. Cities

U.S. Population in Urban, Suburban, & Rural Areas

Peo

ple

(mill

ions

)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1999

Suburban Urban Rural

1950-1999Millions

Growth: City vs. Suburb

10,405,253821,077

020,000,00040,000,00060,000,00080,000,000

100,000,000120,000,000140,000,000160,000,000180,000,000200,000,000

2000 2005 change 2000 2005 change

Metropolitan Population Central City Population

US Metropolitan & Central City Population: 2000-2005

Demographia

In Most advanced countries, the Single Family Home Has Predominated as

“The Universal Aspiration”

“The suburban house is the idealization of every

immigrant’s dream--- the vassal’s dream of his own

castle. Europeans who come here are delighted by our suburbs. Not to live in an

apartment! It is a universal aspiration to own your own

home.”

—Los Angeles urbanist Edgardo Contini

Where Americans Would Like To Live 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Small town notnear a city

Rural area

Not sure

Large city

Suburb nearlarge city

Fannie Mae, 1998

-12.9% 7.8%

14.8%

-1.1% 9.0%

18.1%

-19.0%17.2%

54.0%

-7.8% 30.8%

66.4%

-24.1% 39.7%74.0%

-8.6% 59.0%

108.5%

-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%

Tokyo

Paris

Frankfurt

Chicago

New York

London

Core City Metropolitan Area Suburbs

Declustering: A Global PerspectivePercentage Change in Population 1965 - 2000

Source: Demographia

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Northeast Midwest West South

Mean three -mile share Mean 10-mile share

Economic Declustering: Jobs Head out

Source: Edward Glaeser, Matthew Kahn and Chenghuan Chu, “Job Sprawl: Employment in US Metropolitan Areas”, Brookings Center on Urban and Metropolitan Policy, May 2001

Percentage of Metropolitan area employment

The Archipelago of Villages: Towards “Smart Sprawl”

• Housing near jobs• Emphasis on families • Strong role for village shopping streets and markets• Provision of open space around the village core and housing

estates- • Solving the problem of “sprawl” within the Sprawl

“Town and country must be married and out of this joyous union will spring a new hope, a new life, a new

civilization.” Ebenezer Howard

The British Vision of Urbanity: The Garden City

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Work at Home SOV HOV Transit Walk

The Big Trend: Digital Impact

Source: US Decennial Census

Percent change by mode, journey to work 1980-2000

Total Annual Greenhouse Emissions By Dwelling Type

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

High-Rise Mid-Rise Low -Rise Tow nhouse &Villas

Detached Average

Per Person Per Dwelling

Tonnes CO2/Person/Year Tonnes CO2/Dwelling/Year

Institute of Public Affairs

What We Lost: the Pre-industrial City

“The biggest jolt the Industrial Revolution administered to the Western family was the progressive removal of work from the home.”

— Dr. Peter N. Stearns, historian

$13$18

$45$48

$55

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Global Declustering:Telecommunications Changes Everything

Monthly Cost of leasing a line from Bangalore to Los Angeles

source:Oncept,Inc.

Technology Shifts the Locational Paradigm

• New technology could telescope the distance between communities

• Corporate functions can be more efficiently dispersed to economies with specific expertise

• Technology turns everyplace into a potential global hub

“‘Town’ and ‘city’ will be in truth, terms as

obsolete as ‘mail coach.’”

-H.G. Wells, Anticipations of the Mechanical &

Scientific Progress Upon Human Life and Thought (1902)

Smaller cities and towns already plug into dispersed digital networks

“You look ahead and you can see the possibilities of a lot of vibrant communities in these places.

You have a low cost of living, a great quality of life --- there’s a population there that wants to be there but can still participate in cutting edge, substantial work.”

Doug Burgum, Great Plains Software

Virtuality is Coming…

I leave my house in the country and drive 17 miles through the

blue grass. But when I open my computer I am at my center, it

feels like I am back in San Jose. It's a kind of virtual

Silicon Valley.”

Alan Hawse Director of CAD Development

Cypress Semiconductor

The Key to a Successful National Strategy

This above all: to thine own self be true

William Shakespeare

A Useful Insight

“If you need a campaign to prove you’re hip and cool,

you’re not.”Michigan talk radio host on

Governor Jennifer Granholm’s “Cool Cities” initiative

Beyond Hip and Cool: Migration of Educated Workers 1995-2005

Net Domestic Migration of College Educated, Number of Migrants per 1,000 total Population,1995-2000 and 2004-2005

1.7

-0.4

-0.5

-1.0

-0.5

2.6

-0.6

-0.3

1.2

1.2

4.0

2.8

2.5

3.3

0.8

5.0

4.9

-1.2

-1.1

-0.9

-0.9

-0.7

-0.6

0.5

0.8

1.0

1.5

1.9

2.2

2.8

3.3

3.5

5.1

5.9

Minneapolis

Boston

Los Angeles

New York

Chicago

San Francisco-Oakland

Philadelphia

Detroit

Washington, DC

Houston

Atlanta

Dallas

Seattle

Portland

Riverside

Charlotte

Phoenix

2004-2005

1995-2000

The Biggest Challenge: The Issue of Potential Immigrant Underclass

• Growth of poorly educated newcomers and youngsters poses a unique problem, particularly with the end of the property boom

• Sense of separation from society needs to be addressed aggressively

• Economic development needs to focus on their upward mobility — not “luring” the middle class, but creating one”

American Experience: When the kids get together…something happens…

• Mixed race designation is officially at 2.5percent

• But intermarriage rates are up, particularly in second generation

• Barack Obama, Mariah Carey, Tiger Woods all multi-racial role models

Intermarriage rates in Los Angeles Five County area

31.23%34.14%

7.26%11.50%

22.12%

30.60%

5.14%

15.93%8.31%

5.45%

8.61%

6.34%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

US bornLatino

Foreign bornLatino

US bornAsian

Foreign bornAsian

AfricanAmerican

US bornWhite

Male Female

The American future: the rise of hybrid society…

• A survey of LA and NYC Latino and Asian youths finds culture more important than race

• 85% of first generation Latinos, 97% second identify first as Americans

• American Muslims out-perform national norms in income, education and voter participation. They are also more satisfied with their lives than most Americans

• Cross-culture Latino , Asian , Middle Easter influence move into mainstream

• Ethnicity matters, but less than class or culture.

Official multiculturalism is not the answer…Middle class Opportunity and Personal Contact between individuals represent

the best way to the future

Beyond elitism: Jane Jacobs on the proper

role of an urban economy

“A metropolitan economy, if it is working well, is constantly transforming many

poor people into middle class people ...greenhorns into competent citizens... Cities don’t lure the middle

class, they create it”

Manufacturing Employment by Skill Group, 1983 - Manufacturing Employment by Skill Group, 1983 - 20022002

Source: U.S. Bureau of Census, Current Population SurveyAnalysis by Richard Deitz, New York Federal Reserve Bank

Education Is a Key Part of the Education Is a Key Part of the Upward Mobility EngineUpward Mobility Engine

Education attained Median weekly earnings in 2005

Unemployment rate in 2005

  (Dollars) (Percent)

Some high-school, no diploma 409 7.6

High-school graduate 583 4.7

Some college, no degree 653 4.2Associate degree 699 3.3Bachelor's degree 937 2.6Master's degree 1,129 2.1

Professional degree 1,370 1.1Doctoral degree $1,421 1.6

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor

Lessons from the US Heartland…and Denmark

“You go where the skilled and willing labor is. People’s attitudes are key. ”

Ralph Sperrazza, manager, LM GlasfibreGrand Forks, North Dakota

“We need more machinists and less poets”…Delore Zimmerman, Praxis Strategy Group

Strategies for the 21st Century• Build housing that encourages families • Focus on diverse industries including specialized

manufacturing• Build infrastructure for competitiveness• Stay Green, but remember humans matter too • A liberal culture--- tied to Enlightenment ideals---is critical for

creating a successful diverse society

Questions and Comments?