Azmat Hayat Khan Director

Pakistan Meteorological Department

http://www.pakmet.com.pk

EARLY WARNING SYSTEM IN PAKISTAN

FOR DISASTER MANAGEMENT

PMD

Seismology Meteorology Hydrology

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Early Warnings of hazards due to Meteorological, Hydrological & Geophysical Phenomena such as Tropical Cyclones, Heavy Rains, Floods & Tsunamies etc.

A KEY OBJECTIVE PMD

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The provision of timely & effective information through identified institutions, that demands individuals exposed to hazard to take action to avoid or reduce their risk and prepare for effective response

The Early WarningPMD

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•Risk Knowledge•Monitoring & Warning Service

• Tools & Technologies for Monitoring• Capacity to analyze info.• Capacity for reliable prediction

•Dissemination & Communication•Response Capacities

Components of Early Warning SystemPMD

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PMD

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PMD

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Improved Data Acquisition SystemImproved Data Acquisition System

An integrated observing system composed of remote-sensing, telemetric and automatic observation platforms has gradually become in shape, which are space-based, airborne and land-sited, so as to measure continuously multiple parameters of the climate system from all dimensions, with higher spatial and temporal resolution and with higher accuracies.

Khuzdar

Zhob

Astore

ChhorJiwani

Larkana

Nawabshah

Sibbi

D.I.Khan

Bannu

Parachinar

Balakot Muzaffarabad

Automation of Meteorological Observing Network

Central data archiving Station

Automatic Weather Stations

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RADAR NETWORK OF PMD5 cm radar at Islamabad

10 cm radar at FFD Lahore Area covered by Doppler radar at Lahore

DIKIBD

RHK

KHI

LHR

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PMD is maintaining satellite ground stations (HRPT, DVB, SADIS) at Islamabad, Quetta and Karachi.

WEATHER & PRECIPITATION MONITORING USING THE EARTH SATELLITES

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Automation of weather Data analysisPMD

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Automation of weather Data analysisPMD

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Adoption of New tools and technologies for effective Role

NWP Facilities

GRIB dataNetCDF data

GrADS data

etc..

datasets in any format supported by WMO Formats

Result cache

holds temporary data (uploaded, generated by a previous operation, or transferred directly from another server) for use in remote analysis

PMD High Speed Serverperforms analysis

operations

manages sessions, translates dataset

names

supports extended request types for analysis, upload

internet

data and requests

client libraries

GrADS

Matlab

IDL

etc..

data appears to client as local file, in a standard format (i.e, NetCDF, etc.)

Client

Encapsulated Analysis Requests

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Meteorological Information

Fog /Rain

predict

ion for

road sa

fety Water

resource management

Heat Wave /Cold Wave Prediction

Fisher

ies/

Mar

ine

Safet

y

Flash flood monitoring

Flood Warnings

Cyclone Warnings

Meteorological service for Hazard Mitigation

Agromet

Advisories

Drought

Monitorin

g

Energy

LINKAGE TO OTHER MINISTRIESAVIATION METEOROLOGICAL

SERVICESMINISTRY OF DEFENCE

FLOOD FORECASTING SERVICESMINISTRY OF WATER &

POWER

AGROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICESMINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE

NEW MOON PREDICTION & ASTRONOMICAL DATA ANALYSIS MINISTRY OF RELIGIOUS

AFFAIRSR & D & RENEWABLE ENERGY

RESOURCES MINISTRY OF SCIENCE& TECHNOLOGY

FORECASTING & CLIMATOLOGY PLANNING DIVISION &DISASTER MITIGATION

ORGANIZATIONS

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D.O. No. F.1-3-97/FAMMinistry of Water & Water

Federal Flood Commission,

Riaz Ahmad Islamabad the 15.10.1997Chairman

Dear Doctor Sahib

I feel honoured to acknowledge the accuracy of Meteorological Department’s recent flood forecast during August, 1997 record rainfall. Early warnings and consequent pre-releases from Mangla Dam saved the country from flood damages of the tune of approximately 5 billion rupees.

With best regards,

sd/ (RIAZ AHMAD)

D.O. No. F.1-3-97/FAMMinistry of Food, Agriculture & Livestock

Government of Pakistan,

Mian Abdul Sattar Laleka Islamabad the 28.12.1998Minister

My Dear General Sahib

I feel pleasure in informing you that this year the country

has been able to save about Rs. 70-80 crores on account of pesticides sprayed on cotton crops, because of the precise and timely weather forecast / advisories of Met. Office.

I have already briefed the Prime Minister about this overwhelming success.

With best regards,

Yours sincerely

(Abdul Sattar Laleka)

Water & Power Development Authority

National Power Control Centre

No.CENPCC/2080 Islamabad the 27.02.1999

Director General,

Meteorological DepartmentH-8/2, Islamabad

Subject: IMPORTANCE OF WEATHER REPORTS FOR LOAD FORECAST.

Thanking you for the proposal attention to our requests. It will be appreciate to explain that daily weather reports help this centre in accurate Load Forecasts for the day. Based on Load Forecasts demand is placed on IPP’s thermal units.

On 2-7-1998 WAPDA saved Rs.12.3 million for not demanding HUBCO unit, as your report had a forecast of Rain at Lahore, which proved correct.

Concerned with weather of each city related to Load in turn, the undersigned shall be grateful if you supply us every minute weather details.

(HABIB ULLAH)

Chief Engineer NPCC

Weather Services For

MOUNTAINEERING

PMD

PMD’s Tropical Cyclone Early Warning System

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PMD has recently establishment a Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) at Karachi with a backup support at its main forecasting office Islamabad.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC)Karachi

Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC)Karachi

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PMD made use of various tools and techniques in order to better predict the behaviour of the system (deep depression) especially prediction of track.

Climatology (data, history, precedents)

The synoptic situation

Upper air pressure profile (Isohypse and Isallohypse at different heights)

Upper air wind profile

Satellite imagery/products

Model outputs and Analysis of other regional and global centers, and etc.

Tracking of TCTracking of TC PMD

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PMD AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY UNDER GMDSS

AS PER WMO CHARTER

(Global Maritime Distress & Safety System (GMDSS)

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Details about

Cyclone 03B – YEMYIN(24th -26th June, 2007)

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June 22, 2007 at 1300 PST Sindh:A strong Monsoon weather system (deep depression) over India is likely to approach Sindh coast in next 36-48 hours. Widespread, heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely in Sindh especially in Southern Sindh and coastal areas including Karachi. Sea conditions will be extremely rough along Sindh coast. Fishermen are advised to stop fishing activities from 24th afternoon till 27th afternoon. Irrigation authorities may reduce the canal discharges.Balochistan:Later the Monsoon weather system is expected to move towards Balochistan coast. It may produce heavy to very heavy rainfall in Balochistan especially in coastal areas including Gawadar, Jiwani, Pasni, Ormara, Lasbella etc. Hilly areas especially in Southern Balochistan may experience flash floods. Due to very rough sea conditions, fishermen are advised not to venture into the Sea from 25-28 June, 2007.

Special Bulletins were regularly issued on subsequent development and movement of the tropical cyclone until its dissipation on June 26, 2007.

Information dissiminated regarding Cyclone 03BInformation dissiminated regarding Cyclone 03B

First Bulletin

June 260300 PST

UPDATE: Weather Advisory No.5 for Sindh / Balochistan (Tropical Cyclone Warning)

Tropical Cyclone 03B (YEMYIN) now lies at about 100 km* from Karachi and likely to move in a North-Westerly direction in the next 6-12 hours and likely to intensify further and cross Balochistan coast in the evening of 26th June 2007 between 62.0° E 65.5° E Tropical cyclone is likely to cause widespread destruction and coastal flooding along Balochistan coast due to extremely heavy rainfall, gale winds and associated storm surge. Evacuation from coastal towns of Balochistan is highly recommended.

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Modified Track Forecast By PMD

First Track Forecast By PMDObserved Track

06 GMT 06/25/07 22.9N 67.3E 40 Tropical Storm

12 GMT 06/25/07 23.5N 66.4E 40 Tropical Storm

18 GMT 06/25/07 24.2N 66.3E 50 Tropical Storm

00 GMT 06/26/07 25.1N 65.2E 60 Tropical Storm

06 GMT 06/26/07 25.7N 64.2E 50 Tropical Storm

12 GMT 06/26/07 26.2N 63.0E 45 Tropical Storm

18 GMT 06/26/07 26.2N 62.6E 35 Tropical Depression

Tracking info for Tropical Cyclone 03B Time Lat/ Lon Wind(mph) Storm type

Pasni

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Details about

Cyclone 02A – GoNU(4th -7th June, 2007)

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Date : 04/06/2007

Time: 2000 PST

TROPICAL CYCLONE-02A (GONU) WATCH ADVISORY NO:02  This morning Tropical Cyclone 02-A (GONU) moves towards Coast of Oman. It is likely to continue to move in northwesterly direction, during next 12 hours, towards Coast of Oman. Presently none of land areas of Pakistan is under threat. However, the sea conditions are likely to become very rough. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the open sea beyond 20 km from Sindh Cast during next 36 hours. Fishermen of Balochistan coast especially of Gawadar and Jiwani coastal areas are advised to suspend their fishing activities from Tuesday morning 31

Cyclone Annimation32

Early Warning Information Dissemination Flow-chart

NDMA

PMD

PDMA

DDMA

TMA

UCs

Communities

Federal Ministries / Departments / Armed Forces

Electronic & Print Media

PMD

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FLOOD FORECASTING&

DISSIMINATION SYSTEM

FLOOD FORECASTING&

DISSIMINATION SYSTEM

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Flood Forecasting Division (FFD) Lahore is a specialized unit of PMD for this purpose.

• Responsibilities

i. Flood Forecasting

ii. River stream flow forecasting

iii. Water Management at Dams specially during Monsoon

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AND FLOOD FORECASTING

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Flood Forecasting System

10-cm Doppler Radar at (FFD) Lahore

QPM Radar at Sialkot

Nationwide Network of Weather Surveillance Radars.

Satellite Ground Station

Computer Models

Meteorological Analysis Centre

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REMOTE SENSING

REMOTE SENSING of the rainfall amounts from upper catchments of rivers as input data to the rainfall-runoff models is done through

Satellite Radar

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RANGE 450 KMS

(RANGE & HEIGHT 3D) PMD

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FLOOD

CATEGORIES

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CATEGORY - I

FLOODS

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F.F.D LAHORE41

F.F.D LAHORE42

F.F.D LAHORE43

F.F.D LAHORE44

F.F.D LAHORE45

F.F.D LAHORE46

F.F.D LAHORE47

CATEGORY - II

FLOODS

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D

49

D

50

D

51

D

52

D

53

D

54

D

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D

56

D

57

D

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CATEGORY - III

FLOODS

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D

60

D

61

D

62

D

63

D

64

D

65

D

66

D

67

D

68

D

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D

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D

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FLOOD WARNING SYSTEM

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D

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D

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D

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D

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DBLUE ALERT

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DBLUE ALERT

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D

BLUE ALERT

YELLOW ALERT

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D

BLUE ALERT

YELLOW ALERT

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D

BLUE ALERT

YELLOW ALERT

RED ALERT

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D

BLUE ALERT

YELLOW ALERT

RED ALERT

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D

BLUE ALERT

YELLOW ALERT

RED ALERT

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D

BLUE ALERT

YELLOW ALERT

RED ALERT

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COLOUR CODED QUALITATIVE FORECAST

BLUE ALERT

YELLOW ALERT

RED ALERT

PMD

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FLOOD

FORECAST

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87

PMD

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DESSIMINATION

of

FLOOD FORECAST

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WEATHER / FLOOD FORECAST TO DIFFERENT AGENCIES BY PHONE / FAX

Region - FederalS.No. Agency Phone No. Fax No.

1 The Chairman/Chief Engineering Adviser, 051/9202598 051/9221805Federal Flood Commission, Islamabad. 051/9224991

2 The Secretary, Ministry of Information, Islamabad. 051/9212009 051/9206399,92013503 Mr. Muhammad Riaz Malik, Section Officer, 051/9208100

Emergency Relief Cell, Cabinet Division, Islamabad.051/9202528 051/92212694 NPCC, WAPDA, Islamabad. 051/9257209, 051/9257317 051/92571465 D.G.Met. S., Islamabad 051/9257314 051/44325886 Indus River System Authority, Islamabad. 051/9202081,9221049 051/92012827 Radio Pakistan, Islamabad. 051/9210689 051/92018618 PTV Director, Islamabad. 051/9221227 051/9215927

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WEATHER/FLOOD FORECAST TO DIFFERENT AGENCIES BY PHONE/FAX

Region - PunjabS.No. Agency Phone No. Fax No.

1Governor House LHR (Flood Cell) ( Mr. Babar Hayat Dy. Sec)

9200054 9200023-24

2 (GHQ) Engineers , Pakistan Army, Rawalpindi. 051/56133405,56133527 051/56133024,561317683 Chief Secretary, Punjab, Lahore. Off:9212121/Res:9200886 73244894 Secretary Irrigation, Punjab, Lahore. 9212117-18 9212116- 73244895 Army Flood Relief Centre, Rawalpindi(kind attn. Major Basim) 051/561335276 Secretary, Comm. & Works. Deptt., Lahore. 9210454 9210454, 92104537 Director General (Relief), 9210782, 92105478 Relief Commissioner Flood Punjab 9210780-81 92107829 Board of Revenue, Punjab, Lahore. 9210554 9210782/9210555

10 Administrator LMC Lahore 9211022, 9211029 9211050-921159011 Commissioner, Lahore. 9211003-04 921100612 Pakistan Commissioner for Indus Water, Lahore 7324617/7323763, 7324331 732373213 Deputy Commissioner, Lahore. 9210604-06 9210606-24,9212498,920020414 A.D.C.G. Traffic, Lahore 9210610 921249815 D.C.Office, Kasur. 0492/6977-5066 0492/76231416 D.C.Gujranwala. 0431/9200022-23 0431/920002117 Director Technical Relief Deptt. 921055518 H.Q. Engineers 4-Corps, Lahore Cantt. 66992360 66992370-6019 H.Q.Engineer CORPS, Gujranwala. 0431/269/2232 0431/269/331020 ISRIP, Lahore. 6823275 682327521 Member, WAPDA (Water), Lahore. 9202226 920248522 Chief Eng. Pak. Railway Lahore 9201699/9201660 920176023 Chief Eng. D&F (Ferozepur Road) Lahore 5862671 5862081 (Res) 542153724 Chief Eng. Irrigation Deptt. LHR 9212085-86 921208425 Director Flood Punjab, LHR 586208126 Director Hydrology Flood Drainage, LHR 5169430 516972727 Xen Design Railway HQ LHR 920176028 Xen Narowal 412374 04343 / 41168429 Xen Marala 0432 / 50212030 Divisional Sup. Railway LHR 920196131 Supt. Eng. Upper Chenab Canal, LHR 6826804 686719832 Supt. Eng. Dipalpur Canal Circle, LHR 682551033 Supt. Eng. Drainage Circle, LHR 6823627 686420534 Supt. Eng. Link Canal Bank Dharampura , LHR 686420535 Director Press & Information LHR 9201371 920137436 G.M. Sui Gas Transmission LHR 9201427 920130237 Consultant Irrigation & Power Deptt. 9212134 9211554, 921211638 Flood Warning Centre, Lahore. 7572091 7572091-9339 WASA, Lahore. 5756739- 5712219 575296040 NESPAK, Lahore 5160500 (Exchange) 5163778, 516050941 W.R.M.D. WAPDA, Lahore. 9202483 920259842 APP, Lahore. 9201566-67 9201563

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WEATHER / FLOOD FORECAST TO DISTRICT COORDINATION OFFICERS BY FAXS.No. DISTRICT CODE PHONE FAX

1 LHR.DISTT. NAZAM 042 9210604-9210605 9210606

2 BHAKKAR 04653 412688 413161

3 BHAWALNAGAR 0631 74547-48 71773

4 BHAWALPUR 0621 9250061-62 9250064

5 D.G.KHAN 0641 462119-462121 463288

6 FAISALABAD 041 9200205-06 9200301-9200212

7 GUJRANWALA 0431 9200051-52 9200043

8 GUJRAT 0433 9260010 9260016

9 HAFIZABAD 0438 521784 521075

10 JHANG 0471 625881 613000

11 JHELUM 0541 623733 623834

12 KASUR 0492 9250143 9250162

13 KHANEWAL 0692 52600 53961

14 KHUSHAB 0454 720626-721421 720469

15 LAHORE 042 9211003-04 9200286

16 LAYYAH 0694 43703-04 413702

17 LODHRAN 06517 62710-61074 62460

18 MANDI BAHAUDDIN 0456 504220 504100

19 MULTAN 061 9200042 9200043

20 MUZAFFARGARH 0661 423699 423959

21 NAROWAL 04343 412500 412075

22 OKARA 0442 521925 528411

23 PAKPATTAN 0443 74198 71035-71023

24 R.Y.KHAN 0731 9230266-(9230277Res) 9230267

25 RAJANPUR 06516 689131 688492

26 SAHIWAL 0441 62482 221058

27 SARGODHA 0451 9230025-26 9230024

28 SHEIKHUPURA 04931 52236, 52018 52323

29 SIALKOT 0432 269624, 268590 262751

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WEATHER / FLOOD FORECAST TO DIFFERENT AGENCIES BY PHONE / FAX

Region - SindhS.No. Agency Phone No. Fax No.

1 Secretary Irrigation, Sindh, Karachi. 021/9211445-451 021/92114472 Relief Commissioner Sindh, Karachi 021/9203407 021/92026303 Add. Relief Commissioner Sindh, Hyderabad 0221/28554 0221/7826924 5-CORPS, Karachi 021/5602353-2362 021/5602360

PMD

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WEATHER / FLOOD FORECAST TO DIFFERENT AGENCIES BY PHONE / FAX

Region - NWFPS.No. Agency Phone No. Fax No.

1 Secretary Irrigation, NWFP, Peshawar. 091/9210845-601303 091/9210874-92130992 Secretary TA Dept. Peshawar 091/9210071 091/92124533 Relief Commissioner NWFP, Peshawar 091/9210338 091/92167894 UARS, Peshawar 091/9210184 091/9210223-92101905 Chief Engineer, Mangla 0541/639161 0541/6391626 Chief Engineer, Tarbela. 0995/660189 0995/660003

PMD

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WEATHER / FLOOD FORECAST TO DIFFERENT AGENCIES BY PHONE / FAX

Region - BaluchistanS.No. Agency Phone No. Fax No.

1 Secretary Irrigation, Baluchistan, Quetta. 081/9210174 081/9202157,92017452 M. Bashir Khawaja, Director (P&M) Irr. Deptt. Quetta081/9211190 081/92116013 Additional Relief Commissioner Balochistan, Quetta081/9202575 081/92025754 Kind attention Major Saleem 081/920925264 Board of Revenue, Quetta 081/9202566 081/9201774

PMD

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WEATHER / FLOOD FORECAST TO DIFFERENT AGENCIES BY PHONE / FAX

Region - Azad KashmirS.No. Agency Phone No. Fax No.

1 Relief Commissioner, AJK, Muzaffarabad 58810/39169 58810/32624, 32747

Region - Northern AreaS.No. Agency Phone No. Fax No.

1 Administrator Northern Area Gilgit C/O 0572/2767 0572/2500Relief Commissioner/Chief Secretary 0572/2767 Res (2500)Northern Area Gilgit

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Drought/Environment monitoring and early

warning systemin Pakistan

PMD

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The most complex natural hazards, affecting more people than any other natural hazard.

DROUGHT. . .

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Spatial Extent

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Drought/Environment Monitoring & Early Warning Centre

Additional data generation Resources in this project

• AWS in Sindh & Balochistan 40

• Rain-guage stations 500

• Soil Moisture & Under Ground

Water situation Monitoring

Regional Drought Centre

National Centre for Drought/ Environment Monitoring

Project ComponentsProject Components

PMD

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1. Serve as a hub for the collection, consolidation and analysis of drought related data from all possible sources in the country

2. Prepare and issue weekly drought monitors & moisture stresses in different regions of country based on various indices.

3. Advising government agencies on drought related matters including drought declaration.

4. Conduct research in drought related issues and develop statistical models for improved drought prediction.

OBJECTIVES OF THE PROJECTPMD

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The Data acquisitionItem Quantity Target Area

AWS with Soil Moisture Sensors

40 Southern half of country

Self Recording Rain Gauges

38 Catchment areas of Dams

Ordinary Rain Gauges

500 Southern half of country

Remote Sensing & GIS

1 Whole Country

PMD

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Present ProcedureFor

Drought Monitoring & Early Warning

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Drought advisories are prepared using;

• SPI calculated from point rainfall data

• Water availability in reservoirs

• Soil Moisture data where available• ETo data • River & Stream Flow Data• Field reports

Drought Advisories

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PMD

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PMD

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Drought Conditions as on November, 2004Balochistan Scenario

Six districts of western Balochistan have been affected by Severe Drought. Population statistics depicts that 1.3 million people are drought affecties at present.

Areas of Western Balochistan under Severe Drought

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Conclusion• Drought is still around -

we will be again in stress period like in 2004 if:– we did not receive winter

rains we should be ready for response/ relief

– Indications are already there.

Current ScenarioPMD

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We may Reduce Impacts By:

• Understanding Dangers and Risks• Integrate, Simplify & Expedite Processes• Disseminate Warnings to vulnerables• Decide & Act on Latest Assessments

RecommendationsPMD

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