AWEA State RPS Market Assessment 2017

Released September 26, 2017

American Wind Energy Association | State RPS Market Assessment 2017 | AWEA Member Version 2

AWEA sincerely thanks its member companies and other organizations for their contribution to this report. Review of the analysis and methodology was provided by AWEA’s Regional Partners.

AWEA strives to provide the best information on the wind industry—for the industry and by the industry—and therefore welcomes your comments.

Graphics and text in this report can be used with proper citation of “AWEA RPS Market Assessment 2017.”

Creation of new graphics based on data in the report must receive written approval from AWEA.

When other data sources are used, they are noted. Data should not be used without permission from AWEA.

Copyright © 2017

Cover photo credits: Stoney Creek, Pennsylvania. Photo by Brad Jones.

American Wind Energy Association | State RPS Market Assessment 2017 | AWEA Member Version 3

Table of Contents

Executive Summary 4

Introduction 9

Key Definitions 11

Methodology 12

National RPS Summary Map 14

Characteristics of State RPS Programs 15

Recent RPS Developments 19

State RPS Target Years 20

Comparison of State RPS Targets 21

Nationwide RPS Demand 22

Regional RPS Demand 24

State RPS Demand Summary 26

State by State RPS Demand 28

Appendix A: Wind Capture Rates 56

Appendix B: Wind Capacity Factors 57

Appendix C: Electricity Load Growth 58

Appendix D: Expected Wind Demand by State and Year 59

American Wind Energy Association | State RPS Market Assessment 2017 | AWEA Member Version 4

Executive Summary

Across the United States, 29 states and the District of Columbia have implemented Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS). These require utilities serving customers in a state to supply a specified percentage of their electricity from renewable resources by a certain year. This report aims to estimate near-term demand for wind and other renewables from these state RPS programs, accounting for compliance to date. The report looks out to the year 2025, when the majority of RPS requirements must be met in full, to determine the amount of additional renewable energy needed to fulfill RPS requirements. For states with RPS targets beyond 2025, the report includes state-specific estimates through the final RPS target year.

Wind energy has historically been the renewable technology of choice to meet RPS requirements, representing 61% of RPS-related capacity additions to-date, according to Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. Given the success of RPS programs in driving significant wind energy development, this report takes a detailed look at RPS requirements to assess the incremental RPS resource need or “demand” that wind is eligible to meet, as well as the RPS demand that wind is expected to capture going forward.

In this report, readers will learn more about:

• Characteristics of RPS programs in each state

• Recent RPS policy activity

• Wind-eligible and expected wind RPS demand

• Nationwide RPS demand

• Regional RPS demand

• State by state RPS demand

• AWEA’s methodology and assumptions

American Wind Energy Association | State RPS Market Assessment 2017 | AWEA Member Version 5

Executive Summary

State RPS Targets

• State RPS targets range widely from 10%to 100% renewable energy.

• Hawaii and Vermont lead the nation with the highest targets as a percentage of electricity sales, at 100% by 2045 and 75% by 2032, respectively.

• Three states - California, Oregon, and New York - and the District of Columbia have RPS targets of 50%.

• 15 states, half of all RPS states, now have targets of 25% or greater.

• *Massachusetts’ target is 15% by2020, with an additional 1% each year thereafter.

• Iowa and Texas require specific amounts of renewable capacity rather than percentage targets.

• Five states reach their terminal RPS year in 2020, with five more states reaching their terminal RPS year in 2021 and six states in 2025. Nine states have RPS targets beyond 2025.

Current RPS Target Percentages

10%10%

12.5%12.5%

12.5%15%15%15%15%15%

18%20%20%

25%25%25%25%25%27%

30%31.5%

38.5%50%50%50%50%

75%100%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

WisconsinMaineOhio

North CarolinaWashington

MontanaMissouri

MichiganMassachusetts*

ArizonaPennsylvaniaNew MexicoNew Jersey

New HampshireNevada

MarylandIllinois

DelawareConnecticut

ColoradoMinnesota

Rhode IslandOregon

New YorkDistrict of Columbia

CaliforniaVermont

Hawaii

American Wind Energy Association | State RPS Market Assessment 2017 | AWEA Member Version 6

Executive Summary

Nationwide RPS Demand

Wind-eligible Demand• Through 2025, states need

approximately 105 terawatt hours (TWh) of incremental renewable energy generation to meet wind-eligible RPS requirements. This is equivalent to 34.6 gigawatts (GW) of wind capacity.

Expected Wind Demand• AWEA estimates that RPS policies

will drive the development of approximately 15.5 GW of new wind power capacity from 2017 through 2025.

• This amount of wind capacity would generate a total of 46.5 TWh of renewable electricity through 2025.

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Ren

ewab

le G

ener

atio

n (G

Wh)

Nationwide Cumulative RPS Demand, 2017-2025

Wind-eligible Demand Expected Wind Demand

American Wind Energy Association | State RPS Market Assessment 2017 | AWEA Member Version 7

Executive Summary

Regional RPS Demand

• Through 2025, the Mid-Atlantic region has the greatest needfor wind-eligible RPS resources, requiring an estimated 10,500MW of renewable energy.

• The Midwest represents the second highest region for wind-eligible demand, at approximately 7,360 MW.

• New York as a single state represents the third highest regionfor wind-eligible demand, requiring approximately 5,780 MW.

• The Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, and New York are expected to addthe most wind to comply with RPS policies, representing 70%of all expected wind RPS demand through 2025.

• The Mid-Atlantic region has the greatest expected winddemand, driving an estimated 5,390 MW of wind capacity.

• New York has the second highest expected wind demand at3,340 MW, and the Northwest comes in third with 2,130 MW ofwind.

2,820

4,430

1,600

840

7,360

10,500

5,780

1,100

220

2,130

1,330

490 540

1,550

5,390

3,340

62090

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Northwest California Mountain West Plains Midwest Mid-Atlantic New York New England Hawaii

Cap

acit

y (M

W)

Regional Demand 2017-2025Wind-eligible Demand Expected Wind

American Wind Energy Association | State RPS Market Assessment 2017 | AWEA Member Version 8

Executive Summary

State RPS Demand

• New York leads the RPS states in expected winddemand, with 3,340 MW of wind expected through2025. Ohio has the second highest demand with1,630 MW of expected wind.

• The top five states in terms of expected wind demandare New York, Ohio, New Jersey, California, andOregon. These five states contain 59% of all expectedwind RPS demand.

• Washington, Maryland, Michigan, Pennsylvania, andIllinois round out the top ten states.

• Out of the top ten, California, Maryland, Michigan,New York, and Oregon have all increased their RPStargets since 2015, demonstrating the role of RPSpolicies in creating new demand for renewables.

• Two states (Montana and Wisconsin) have alreadymet their RPS targets, and three states (Arizona,Massachusetts, and Vermont) do not requireadditional resources through 2025.

Expected Wind RPS Demand, 2017-2025 (MW)

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000

MontanaWisconsin

VermontArizona

MassachusettsMaine

DelawareMinnesota

New MexicoHawaii

New HampshireRhode Island

ColoradoNevada

District of ColumbiaNorth Carolina

ConnecticutMissouri

IllinoisPennsylvania

MichiganMaryland

WashingtonOregon

CaliforniaNew Jersey

OhioNew York

Expected Wind Demand, 2017-2025 (MW)