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Jerry VelasquezRegional Coordinator
International Strategy for Disaster ReductionUnited Nations Secretariat in Asia Pacific (UN/ISDR)
www.unisdr.orgReducing Vulnerability to Climate Change Impacts and
Related Natural Disasters in East AsiaMakati, Philippines, 12-13 May 2008
Avoiding the Unmanageable, Managing the Unavoidable -
Disaster Risk Reduction in a Changing Climate
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Distribution of Disasters: % killed by type of hazard 94-04
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In this Summary for Policymakers, the following terms have been used to indicate the assessed likelihood, using expert judgement, of an outcome or a result: Virtually certain > 99% probability of occurrence, Extremely likely > 95%, Very likely > 90%, Likely > 66%, More likely than not > 50%, Unlikely < 33%, Very unlikely < 10%, Extremely unlikely < 5%.
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
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Global Trends: Disasters are NOT natural
Natural and human-induced hazards:Increased intensity and frequency of extreme climatic events
Increasing vulnerability:• Socio-economic: poverty, unplanned urban growth, lack of awareness and institutional capacities…• Physical: insufficient land use planning, housing, infrastructure located in hazard-prone areas, policy-made disasters…• Environmental degradation: unsustainable management of ecosystem services: coral reefs, forests, mangroves, watersheds, wetlands, arid zones...
HAZARDS +HAZARDS +EXTREME EVENTSEXTREME EVENTS
VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY
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The Changing Face of Risk
Changing nature of hazards• Hazards are changing:
increased intensity and/or frequency of known hazards
• Some regions will face hazards they have no experience with
Changing nature of vulnerability
• Vulnerability to hazards is increasing, and rapidly
• Climate-change-specific impacts (sea-level & temperature rise, glacier melting) will aggravate existing vulnerability
Needed Action Implement joint disaster risk reduction & climate change adaptation strategies and act urgently to avoid further warming (climate change mitigation)
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Similarities and Differences
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Similarities and Differences
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Similarities and Differences
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So when we say we want to consider both disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation, the goal should therefore be to build a comprehensive risk management framework, which recognizes current and future vulnerabilities as well as the compound effects of multiple disasters within a given region.
Similarities and Differences
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Challenges
• Uncertainty — reason delaying efforts?– Lessons from DRR on dealing with uncertainty useful
• Short-term thinking– Full risk analysis needed
• Information collection, dissemination and implementation– Lessons on DRR early warning systems help
• Institutional structures– Separation may not exist at the local level, but vertical linkages
may be weak
• Financing frameworks– how incentives for integrating risk reduction measures can be
strengthened within the development context
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Practical actions to reduce vulnerability to natural hazards and adapt to climate change
• Strongly promote culture of prevention and resilience
• Develop institutions (policies, plan legislation, multi-stakeholder mechanisms…) to actively contribute to these goals
• Identify risks (risk mapping, hazard & vulnerability assessments), and develop early warning systems
• Build hazard-resistant structures (critical infrastructure, schools, hospitals, avoid high risk zones…)
• Protect and develop hazard buffers (forests, reefs, mangroves..)
• Improve preparedness, response, develop pre-disaster recovery plans
• In other words, implement the Hyogo Framework for Action
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Bali Action Plan: DRR for Adaptation
• Agreed by UNFCCC COP-13, Bali in December 2007• Will guide negotiations during 2008 – 2009 on the
global climate regime to apply from 2012-• Recognises the importance of risk reduction for
adaptation, and calls for:• Risk management and risk reduction strategies,
including risk sharing and transfer mechanisms such as insurance;
• Disaster reduction strategies and means to address loss and damage.
• Urgent need to support Governments to develop Bali mandate on disaster risk reduction.
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“Climate change is expected to cause more severe and more frequent natural hazards. As our cities and coasts grow more vulnerable, these hazards can lead to disasters that are far worse than those we have seen to date. We have a moral, social and economic obligation to build resilience by 2015. Implementing the Hyogo Framework for Action will also help us reach the Millennium Development Goals.”
Ban Ki-moonSecretary-General
United Nations, 2007
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Thank youUnited Nations Secretariat in Asia and Pacific
International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN/ISDR Asia Pacific) UNESCAP Building - 7th Floor, Section B
Rajdamnern Nok Avenue - 10400 Bangkok - Thailand Phone:+66-2-288-2750 Fax:+66-2-288-1050
