Avoiding the ‘Perfect Storm’: Water-Food-Energy Security Professor Dragan Savić Director,...
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Avoiding the ‘Perfect Storm’: Water-Food-Energy Security Professor Dragan Savić Director, Centre for Water Systems, University of Exeter WORKSHOP, 24-25
Avoiding the Perfect Storm: Water-Food-Energy Security
Professor Dragan Savi Director, Centre for Water Systems,
University of Exeter WORKSHOP, 24-25 JULY, EXETER
Slide 2
Perfect Storm & Security Background and Intro Civilisation
Challenges Decision-Making, Modelling, Science and Society Aims of
the Workshop Identify Science Challenges/Gaps Build Foundations for
a UK Project(s) Outline
Slide 3
Perfect Storm An event where a rare combination of
circumstances will aggravate a situation drastically An actual
phenomenon that happens to occur in such a confluence, resulting in
an event of unusual magnitude Not the film!
Slide 4
Global human society must now attempt to solve a set of
complex, interrelated problems that are fundamental threats to
human civilisation Context for a Perfect Storm Many of these issues
are directly related to the areas of water, food and energy
Security, prosperity and equity
Slide 5
Risk Interconnection Map 2011 WEF (2011)
Slide 6
6 Breaking news. The report highlights five key factors that
could threaten future stability - severe income disparity both
within and between countries, fiscal imbalances across the globe,
greenhouse gas emissions, cyber attacks and a water supply crisis.
Source: World Economic Forum Global Risks 2012
Slide 7
Security is about understanding and managing risks (and
uncertainty), tradeoffs and synergies What is WFE Security?
Physical, economic and reliable access to required quantity/quality
of WFE (for health, livelihood and production) with acceptable
level of risks to individuals, environment and society
Slide 8
The Perfect Storm of 2030! J. Beddington (UK governments
science adviser), Business as usual projections: Climate Change,
Conflicts, Economic Growth The world's population from 6bn to 8bn
(33%) Demand for food by 50% Demand for water by 30% Demand for
energy by 50%
Slide 9
Water for energy Cooling Extraction of fuels Hydropower
Biofuels Emissions scrubbing Energy for water Pumping Desalination
Treatment Water efficiency Agricultural organisation Virtual water
Subsidies Biofuels Pump efficiency Fertilizers Food supply chain
Transport Stakeholders
Slide 10
Civilisation Challenges: Water-Food-Energy
Slide 11
All three areas have many billions of people without access
(quantity or quality or both) Limited or No Access
Slide 12
Rapidly Growing Global Demand 12 Source: McKinsey and Co (2011)
Source: US EIA (2012)
Slide 13
WFE Resource Constraints
Slide 14
All are global goods and involve international trade and have
global implications All have different regional and temporal
availability and variations in supply and demand All have strong
interdependencies with climate change, population dynamics and
environment All have deep security issues as they are fundamental
to the functioning of society Other Challenges (1) Adapted from:
Baziliana, Rogner, Howells, Hermann, Arent, Gielen, Steduto,
Mueller, Komor, Tol and Yumkella, Energy Policy, 39 (2011),
7896-7906.
Slide 15
All operate in heavily regulated markets All require the
explicit identification and treatment of risks and trade-offs Due
to the vastness of the individual areas and the difficulty of
considering all three together, there is little work focusing on
how to support decision-making at the WFE nexus Other Challenges
(2) Adapted from: Baziliana, Rogner, Howells, Hermann, Arent,
Gielen, Steduto, Mueller, Komor, Tol and Yumkella, Energy Policy,
39 (2011), 7896-7906.
Slide 16
As a result, policies and regulations can often inadvertently
create sub-optimal signals to economic, national security or
environment concerns or even unintended consequences Other
Challenges (3) Adapted from: Baziliana, Rogner, Howells, Hermann,
Arent, Gielen, Steduto, Mueller, Komor, Tol and Yumkella, Energy
Policy, 39 (2011), 7896-7906.
Slide 17
Slide 18
Slide 19
Modelling, Science and Society
Slide 20
Modelling - a critical translation point between science and
society between the physical aspects of WFE security and societal
solutions to engage stakeholders and achieve shared vision
Modelling for WFE Security Predict and Plan Approach?
Slide 21
International Atomic Energy Agency (2009) Schematic of Ethanol
production and energy-water-food interactions
Slide 22
Complexity and Systems Science Approach Modelling for WFE
Security WFE Security Wicked Problem Relationships are intimately
linked, physically, socially and economically Difficult or
impossible to solve Governed by complexity and feedback mechanisms
that cannot be reconciled by studying each component
separately
Slide 23
Can modelling help us make better decisions and policy?
Modelling for WFE Security Not only incremental improvements
Long-term, transformative thinking Systematic, rather than in one
area only To underpin the innovation process To learn as we go
along at least we should be making new mistakes
Slide 24
System Dynamics Modelling System Dynamics Approach Source:
Proust et al. (2007) Climate, energy and water : Accounting for the
links, Fenner School of Env and Society
Slide 25
Objectives/Aims of the Workshop?
Slide 26
Develop New Knowledge Develop understanding of the kind of
futures that are possible and kind of decisions we need to make to
get to desirable futures Develop the Human Dimension To help manage
whole landscapes (when nature meets culture) Science
Challenges
Slide 27
WFE Nexus needs to be tackled in a trans- disciplinary manner,
by involving various R&D providers, e.g.: Natural &
ecological scientists Engineers & Technologists Social
scientists (policy, economics, psychology, etc) Science
Challenges
Slide 28
To increase levels of understanding Institutional capacity to
act on the complex interactions Among stakeholders (engagement,
empowerment) To identify technological and management opportunities
To develop and apply modelling tools that can support integrated
decision-making Science Challenges