AVOIDING THE NEXT EARTHQUAKE CATASTROPHE IN EAST … · Best Practices: The Istanbul Seismic Mitigation and Emergency Preparedness Program (ISMEP) Treasury secured a World Bank loan

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AVOIDING THE NEXT EARTHQUAKE CATASTROPHE IN EAST ASIA AND THE PACIFIC

What East Asia and the Pacific Can Do to Prepare for the Next Big Earthquake: Developing and Implementing Regional and Countrywide Strengthening Programs

1for Vulnerable Structures

Peter I. YanevEarthquake Engineering and Risk Management Consultant

to the World BankYanev Associates, California, USA

AVOIDING THE NEXT EARTHQUAKE CATASTROPHE IN EAST ASIA AND THE PACIFIC

Agenda

Recent earthquakes in the Philippines , Indonesia and China

Case study: California 1933–2010

Lessons for countrywide earthquake risk management

Principles of earthquake risk management –countrywide risk reduction programs

Best Practices: ISMEP – Turkey, etc.

Recommendations – Future Action Plan

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101 Earthquakes & 13 HurricanesInvestigated 1971 - 2010

1971 San Fernando, CA (M6.5)1972 Managua, Nicaragua (M6.3)1973 Point Mugu, CA (M5.9)1973 Managua, Nicaragua (M5.8)1975 Ferndale, CA (M5.5)1975 Lice, Turkey (M6.8)1976 Friuli, Italy (M6.5)1977 Vranchia, Romania (M7.4)1978 Izu Peninsula, Japan (M6.7)1978 Miyagi-Ken-oki, Japan (M7.4)1978 Santa Barbara, CA (M5.1)1979 Bishop, CA (M5.8)1979 Gilroy, CA (M5.5)1979 Imperial Valley, CA (M6.6)1980 Livermore, CA (M5.5 and 5.8)1980 Eureka, CA (M7.0)1980 Mammoth Mt., CA (M6.5, 6.5, 6.7)1981 Brawley, CA (M5.6)1983 Coalinga, CA (M6.7)1983 Borah Mt., Idaho (M6.9)1984 Morgan Hill, CA (M6.2)1985 Santiago, Chile (M7.8 and 7.2)1985 Mexico City, Mexico (M8.1 and 7.5)1986 Painesville, Ohio (M5.0)1986 Adak Island, Alaska (M7.7 and 6.5)1986 North Palm Springs, CA (M6.0)1986 Chalfant Valley, CA (M6.0 and 5.5)1986 San Salvador, El Salvador (M5.4)1986 Northern Taiwan (M6.8)1987 Cerro Prieto, Mexico (M5.4)1987 Bay of Plenty, New Zealand (M6.2)1987 Whittier, CA (M5.9)1987 Superstition Hills, CA (M6.3)1988 Gorman, CA (M5.2)1988 Alum Rock, CA (M5.1)1988Saguenay, Quebec (M6.0)1989Armenia, USSR (M6.9)1989Acapulco, Mexico (M6.8)1989 Loma Prieta, CA (M7.1)1989 Newcastle, Australia (M5.5)

1999 Western Washington (M5.8)1999 Izmit, Turkey (M7.4)1999 Duzce, Turkey (M7.2)1999 Central Taiwan (M7.6)1999 Athens, Greece (M5.9)1999 Algeria (M5.5)1999 Hector Mine, California (M7.1)1999 Floyd (Eastern US)1999 Lothar1999 Martin2000 Napa, CA (M5.2)2001 Tottori, Japan (M6.7)2001 Gujarat, India (M7.6)2001 Seattle, WA (M6.8)2002 San Simeon (Paso Robles), CA (M6.52005 Katrina (US Gulf Coast)2007 West Sumatra, Indonesia (M6.3)2007 Niigata (Kashiwazaki), Japan (M6.8)2008 Wells, Nevada (M6.3) 2008 Sichuan, China (M8.0)2008 Chino Hills, Los Angeles, CA (M5.4)2009 L’Aquila, Italy (M6.3)2010 Haiti (M6.9)2010 Chile (M8.8)2010 Baja California, Mexico (M7.2)

1989 Hugo (Caribbean, Puerto Rico, So. Carolina)1990 Upland, California (M5.5)1990 Bishop's Castle, Wales (M5.4)1990 Manjil, Iran (M7.7)1990 Central Luzon, Philippines (M7.7)1991 Valle de la Estrella, Costa Rica (M7.4)1992 Sierra Madre, CA (M5.8)1992 Erzincan, Turkey (M6.8)1992 Roermond, Netherlands (M5.8)1992 Desert Hot Springs, CA (M6.1)1992 Cape Mendocino, CA (M7.0, 6.0, and 6.5)1992 Landers-Big Bear, CA (M7.6 and 6.7)1992 Cairo, Egypt (M5.9)1992 Andrew (Florida, Louisiana)1992 Iniki (Kauai, Hawaii)1993 Scotts Mill, OR (M5.3)1993 Nansei-oki Hokkaido, Japan, (M7.8)1993 Agana, Guam (M8.2)1993 Klamath Falls, OR (M5.7)1994 Northridge, CA (M6.6)1994 Tohoko-oki Hoddaido, Japan (M8.1)1995 Great Hanshin (Kobe), Japan (M7.2)1995 Pereira, Colombia (M6.5)1995 Sakhalin Islands, Russia (M7.2)1995 Antofagasta, Chile (M7.4)1995 Manzanillo, Mexico (M7.6)1996 Luis (Northeast Caribbean)1995 Marilyn (Northeast Caribbean)1995 Opal (Florida panhandle)1996 Angela (Philippine Islands)1996 Duvall (Seattle,), WA (M5.3)1996 Calico, CA (M5.0)1996 Umbria, Italy (M5.5)1997 Paka (Guam)1998 Adana-Ceyhan, Turkey (M6.2)1998 Georges (Northeast Caribbean,

Puerto Rico, Gulf Coast)1999 Armenia, Colombia (M5.0)1999 Puerto Escondido, Mexico (M7.5)

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Luzon, Philippines Earthquake of 1990 (M 7.8)

Damage to infrastructure, including bridges, roads, ports and industry. It collapsed many relatively new commercial buildings, particularly multistory hotels in the resort City of Baguio, and caused 1,700 fatalities.

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Luzon, Philippines Earthquake of 1990 (M 7.8)

Extensive non-structural damage to high-tech facilities in Baguio caused extensive business interruptions

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Magnitude of only 6.3 but caused 66 fatalities, 500 casualties, and severe damage or collapse of nearly 15,000 buildings. 135,000+ people displaced. About 300 school buildings collapsed and another 400 had moderate to severe damage. These are very high numbers for such a moderate earthquake in an area with a long history of much larger earthquakes.

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West Sumatra, Indonesia Earthquake of 2007 (M6.3)

Wenchuan, Sichuan Province, China Earthquake of 2008 (M8.0)

In area of many past earthquakes with M7 to M8 and near two of China’s well-known earthquake faults.

87,000+ casualties (69,000 deaths and 18,000 missing). Millions injured and homeless. 15 million housing units collapsed.

Schools and hospitals especially hit hard; collapsed while occupied. Many of the buildings were relatively new.

The infrastructure of the affected region, much of it new, suffered severe to extreme damage, especially critical facilities such as power transmission facilities and bridges.

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Collapse of conventional buildings, Beichuan (Prof.Ye Yaoxian)

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220 kV Ertaishan Substation, Yingxhou

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Junion High School, Juyuan; Built in 1996. 400 students killed

Wenchuan, Sichuan Province, China Earthquake of 2008 (M8.0) - Schools

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Hanwang Hospital (left), Built in 1999 and Xingfu Hospital (right); Built in 1996.

Wenchuan, Sichuan Province, China Earthquake of 2008 (M8.0) - Schools

Case study: California 1933–2010

1906 San Francisco & 1923 Tokyo earthquakes – start of earthquake science and engineering

1933 Long Beach EQ.; school collapses & Field Act

Special bureau set up for schools; no school has collapsed since

1952 Kern Co. EQ; damage to power facilities

PG&E adopts special requirements

1971 San Fernando, LA EQ; hospitals collapse

Special bureau set up for hospital design and strengthening

1971 San Fernando, LA EQ; dam collapses

Requirements for assessment and strengthening of all dams

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1971 San Fernando Earthquake (M6.5) Olive View Hospital

1994 Northridge

The replacement structure was practically undamaged (and the second earthquake was stronger).

The three-month old Olive View Hospital collapsed.

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Case study: Earthquake Risk Management in California 1933–2010

1977/78 Calif. State Capitol building strengthened; first public building to be strengthened. Military starts strengthening program of facilities in California

Early 1980s Private companies and industry start Risk Management Programs and strengthening

1989 San Francisco EQ; Highways and bridges collapse

Major program for strengthening of bridges and highways started by CalTrans. Many hundreds of bridges retrofitted

1994 Northridge, LA EQ; Interior hospital damage

Special requirements for operability of hospitals

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Key lessons and challenges for countrywide earthquake risk management

Update the earthquake hazard zoning of the country,

Update the codes to the latest knowledge and include requirements for the strengthening of exiting buildings,

Improve the quality of engineering with proper training and licensing; tighten inspection of construction and construction materials,

Start strengthening vulnerable structures using the experience gained by other countries in reducing their risk through earthquake risk management programs like ISMEP project in Turkey.

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Earthquake risk to (1) buildings and contents and (2) infrastructure and its equipment

Start with the following:

Buildings and their contents

Schools

Hospitals and other medical buildings and their equipment

Critical government buildings

Critical public utility infrastructure and equipment

Highways and bridges

Airports

Electric power systems

Water and waste water systems

Telecommunication systems

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Earthquake scenarios: A 2005 simulated a M6.7 earthquake in Seattle, WA, USA

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Principles of earthquake risk management: Developing regional and countrywide earthquake risk reduction programs

1. Risk audit of a specific sector, like public schools or bridges.

2. Detailed risk assessment including cost-benefit analysis for the particular sector and prioritization of assets to strengthen.

3. Implementation – reducing the risk through strengthening of the prioritized buildings and non-structural features and equipment systems. This is mostly construction and is usually about 90% of the total cost.

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Three phase program:

Phase 1 - Risk audit of a specific sector, like public schools or bridges

Establish evaluation criteria and procedure for buildings

Collect all relevant data on the buildings (keep it simple)

Evaluate all buildings to establish their risk (keep it deterministic)

Prioritize the buildings on the basis of their risk and the established evaluation criteria

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Phase 2 -Detailed risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis for the particular sector and prioritization

of assets to strengthen

Develop performance-based strengthening criteria

Analyze in further detail prioritized buildings that will be strengthened

Design preliminary strengthening

Estimate cost of strengthening

Determine what cost is justified vs. performance-based criteria

Re-prioritize based on results above

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Phase 3 - Implementation – strengthening of the prioritized buildings and non-structural

features (and equipment)

Do final engineering design

Complete design of non-structural upgrades, as needed

Construct the strengthening designs

Complete all necessary refurbishing and upgrading

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Best Practices: The Istanbul Seismic Mitigation and Emergency Preparedness Program (ISMEP)

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Schools


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Schools


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Schools

School strengthening (and renovation): Before and after

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School strengthening (and renovation): Before and after

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Strengthened Schools as of Oct. 15, 2010


Treasury secured a World Bank loan to reduce the vulnerability of public buildings and the earthquake risk of Istanbul.

Established a separate government unit – the Istanbul Project Coordination Unit (IPCU) to run the project

IPCU conducts all procurement, and assures quality through independent reviews of designs and construction.

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IPCU coordinates all activities with the beneficiaries (i.e. Ministry of Education, individual schools, etc.)

Developed project specific strengthening and rehabilitation guidelines: Assessment of building condition

Assessment of earthquake deficiencies

Establishment of site-specific earthquake shaking

Analysis procedures

Structural (expected) performance levels

Strengthening details

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Enhanced quality of design engineering and construction through requiring Joint Ventures with internationally recognized earthquake engineering design companies for all projects

Encouraged technology transfer through hiring of international consultants to conduct third-party review of all work

The World Bank provided an additional level of technical quality compliance

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Other “Best Practices” Examples:

University of California’s Berkeley campus

Romania Hazard Risk Mitigation and Emergency Preparedness Project (HRMEP)

Chile - Engineered Confined-Masonry Buildings

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Other “Best Practices” Examples: University of California’s Berkeley campus

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Other “Best Practices” Examples: Romania Hazard Risk Mitigation and Emergency Preparedness Project

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Buildings undergoing retrofits: two city halls and a dormitory

Other “Best Practices” Examples: Chile - Engineered Confined-Masonry Buildings

35Unconfined masonry; 2010 earthquake

Other “Best Practices” Examples: Chile - Engineered Confined-Masonry Buildings

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Undamaged confined masonry in a heavily damaged area

Recommendations – Future Action Plan:Short term (1 year):

Initiate at least one narrowly focused earthquake risk reduction program for maximum impact on potential life losses in the public sector in a major metropolitan area – possibly start with schools, hospitals, and power generation and distribution systems.

Assess integration of earthquake risk assessments and risk reduction into infrastructure investments

Review and update existing building codes and their enforcement, specifically for earthquakes

Conduct a critical review of national earthquake risk reduction policies and laws.

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Recommendations – Future Action Plan:Medium term (5 years):

Complete a large narrowly focused earthquake risk reduction program for maximum impact on life losses as a demonstration project like ISMEP.

Demonstrate that cost-effective strengthening options are available for vulnerable structures and gain public support – schools are easiest

Redefine the earthquake hazardous areas

Redefine tsunami hazardous areas; improve tsunami warning systems

Update the codes

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Recommendations – Future Action Plan:Medium term (5 years):

Strengthen enforcement of the codes and construction inspection

Conduct training for structural engineers in earthquake risk analysis and risk reduction. Training programs for contractors and the trades would also be very useful.

Mandate professional registration for structural engineers, particularly in the earthquake hazard areas of each country.

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Recommendations – Future Action Plan:Long term (5 to 10 years):

Initiate long-term earthquake risk reduction programs to impact all key public sectors

Support/initiate long-term earthquake risk reduction programs for the highest risk private structures

Support/initiate long-term earthquake risk reduction programs for the highest risk industries and maximum financial impact

Pass legislation to require strengthening of private sector structures and infrastructure with or without public financing but with incentives.

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Documents

AVOIDING THE NEXT EARTHQUAKE CATASTROPHE IN EAST … · Best Practices: The Istanbul Seismic Mitigation and Emergency Preparedness Program (ISMEP) Treasury secured a World Bank loan