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Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism
Aviation Policy for the Advent of the LCC Age
January 8th 2013 Director-General, Civil Aviation Bureau,
Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Akihiko TAMURA
Trend of Air Passenger Transportation in the World
2
（million passengers）
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
国際線旅客
国内線旅客
Source：Annual Report of the Council, ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organization)
International
Domestic
3
Trend of GDP Growth and Number of Air Passengers in the World
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
ＧＤＰ成長率（各国ＧＤＰ
の購買力平価換算）
世界の航空旅客数増加
率（国際＋国内）
（％）
1）. Annual Report of the Council, ICAO 2）. World Economic Outlook, IMF(International Monetary Fund)
1)
2)
GDP growth rate (PPP rate base)1)
Rate of increase in the number of air passengers (Int’l + Domestic) 2)
Source：Japan Aircraft Development Corporation
Annual average: +6.6% Annual average: +3.3%
Annual average: +6.1% Annual average: +5.6%
Annual average: +3.1%
1,413
2,614
4,909
1,365
383 1,452
Annual average: +6.9%
111 327
2,717
1,431
797 246
Forecast of Air Traffic Growth in the World (2011-2031)
Major increase in air traffic (Total number of international and domestic traffic)
4
Europe
Africa
Latin America/Caribbean
countries
Asia Pacific Region
Middle East
North America
Air traffic in 2011
Forecast of air traffic in 2031
Annual average growth rate during the
period
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011 （ FY ）
Trend of International Air Passenger Transportation in Japan
the Great East Japan Earthquake
(March 2011)
FY2011 air passengers
54.4mil
Narita/Haneda 34.1mil （62.8％）
Kansai 10.1mil(18.6%)
local areas 5.8mil (10.6%)
Centrair /Nagoya 4.4mil (8.1%)
5
(10 thousand people)
Opening of Narita (May 1978)
September 11 Attacks (September 2001)
Iraq war/SARS
(March-April 2003)
Opening of Centrair (February 2005)
Bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers (September 2008)
Note) The number of passengers at Osaka International Airport was applied before the opening of Kanai International Airport. * Compiled based on materials of MLIT
Opening of Kansai
(September 1994)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
local areas 12.4mil （15.7％）
Kansai / Itami (excluding Haneda flights)
9.5mil （12.0％）
Centrair / Nagoya (excluding Haneda flights)
4.6mil (5.8%)
（ FY ）
Trend of Domestic Air Passenger Transportation in Japan
6
Total passengers from/to Haneda Airport
52.3mil.people（66.5％）
FY2011 air passengers
79.1mil
(10,000 people)
Haneda and Itami / Kansai 5.9mil （7.4％）
* Prepared by JCAB based on the Annual Report of Air Transport Statistics.
Haneda 46.7mil.people59.1％）
The number of domestic air passengers
（million） （％）
Trend of Domestic Air Passenger Transportation by purpose in Japan
7
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1981
19
83
1985
19
87
1989
19
91
1993
19
95
1997
19
99
2001
20
03
2005
20
07
2009
20
10
仕事
観光
帰省・私用
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2010
仕事
観光
帰省・私用
その他
・Business demand increased gradually, but fell sharply in 2009 ・Demand for sightseeing increased rapidly from late 80’s, but recently it’s in decreasing trend
Business
Sightseeing
Homecoming
Other
Business
Sightseeing
Homecoming
Trend of domestic air passengers (1981 = 100)
Relativity between Domestic Air Passenger Transportation in Japan and GDP / Salary
8
(1981=100) （％） （％）
・Trends of business and homecoming are generally consistent with trend of GDP ・Demand for sightseeing seems related to average salary/ yield ratio
75
95
115
135
155
175
195
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400 19
81
1982
19
83
1984
19
85
1986
19
87
1988
19
89
1990
19
91
1992
19
93
1994
19
95
1996
19
97
1998
19
99
2000
20
01
2002
20
03
2004
20
05
2006
20
07
2008
20
09
2010
仕事
観光
帰省・私用
GDP 平均給与／イールド比
（実質）
GDP：Cabinet Office, Government of Japan Ave salary：Financials Services Agency
Business
Sightseeing
Homecoming
Real GDP
Ave. salary / Yield
(Left axis)
(Right axis)
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
国際線イールド 国内線イールド
Trend of Yield for Airlines in Japan
9
（FY）
（Yen/person-kilometer）
Double tracking (0.7mil/year) and triple tracking (1mil/year)
Double tracking (0.2mil/year) and triple tracking (0.35mil/year)
Bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers
Double tracking (0.4mil/year)
and triple tracking (0.7mil/year)
Abolition of double and triple tracking
September 11 Attacks
SKY/ADO entry
ANA entry into international
market
Yield (int'l)
Yield (domestic)
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
ネットワークキャリア（国内） ネットワークキャリア（国際） LCC
Trend of Yield for Airlines in U.S.
10 ※Yield= Revenue / RPK
￠9=¥7.2 ($1=¥80) Source：LCC includes the domestic and international, Institution for Transport Policy Studies
Yield (cent)
Bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers
FSA(int'l) FSA(domestic)
Background of LCC Entry
12
Lower barrier to new entry
Deregulation
The Internet as a cost effective distribution channel
Price is more important to business travelers
Travel agencies also demand low prices
The market for cost-sensitive has rapidly expanded since late 1990s
Changes to the business travel market
Characteristics of LCC Business Model
13
Provide service with low costs & low fares
Mainly short & point-to-point traffic
Short turnarounds/high aircraft utilization
Secondary airports policy
Low distribution costs/limited on-board service
Low fleet costs by a commonality policy
The LCCs in the World
Source: Pre pared by JCAB based on each airline’s website
Virgin Blue <Virgin Atlantic>
Jet Star <Quantas Airways>
Air Asia X
Nok Air <Thai>
Thai Air Asia
Lion Air
West Jet
Southwest
AirTran
Spirit
Can Jet
Jet Blue
GOL
Ryanair
Germanwings <Lufthansa>
Cebu Pacific Air
WIZZ Air
Tiger <Singapore >
One Two Go
Jet Star Asia <Quantas>
Vueling
Independent LCC
Affiliated LCC
（Legend）
Easy Jet
○ LCCs have been actively developing business in the US, Europe and the South-East Asian markets.
14
LCC Market Share in the World (Seat-kilometer Based)
15
8%10%
12%14% 15%
17%19%
21% 22%23% 24%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
LCCシェア
Source：CAPA Centre for Aviation HP
LCC share
The Share of LCC in the World
29.7%
31.8%
38.3%
2.8%
11.3%
11.7%
6.9%
32.4%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0%
北米
中南米
西欧
東欧
中東
アフリカ
北東アジア
東南アジア
2001 2011
North America
West Europe
North-East Asia
Shares of LCC by regions
・Source：CAPA Centre for Aviation HP
※North-East Asia ：Japan, Korea China, Taiwan, Mongol 16
※seat・km based
Latin America
East Europe
Middle East
Africa
South-East Asia
Source：World Air Transport Statistics 56th edition, IATA(International Air Transport Association)
Airlines Number of Passengers
1 Ryanair 76,422
2 Lufthansa 49,755
3 Easy Jet 42,028
4 Emirates 32,730
5 Air France 32,597
6 British Airways 29,307
7 Air Berlin 25,825
8 KLM Royal Dutch 25,066
Airlines Number of Passengers
1 Southwest 110,587
2 Delta 92,023
3 China Southern 74,648
4 American 65,303
5 US Airways 46,619
6 China Eastern 45,595
7 Air China 42,072
8 United 40,524
International Domestic
The Ranking of Airlines in the World (2012)
17
Unit Cost of Airlines in Japan & U.S. (FY2011)
18 ※The unit cost bases on consolidation. 1＄=78.425yen Source: Prepared by JCAB
Yen / person・kilometer
12.9
11.4
8.4 8.3
6.96.0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
ANA JAL Skymark United Delta SouthweatSouthwest
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
営業収入 営業利益率
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
The trend for Japanese airlines1)
1. Japanese are JAL , ANA and Skymark. : Prepared by JCAB
2. Institution for Transport Policy Studies
Sales revenue (100 million -yen)
The trend for U.S. airlines2)
Sales revenue （million ＄）
Operating profit margin （%）
Trend of Airline Performance (Japan & U.S.)
19
LCC
FSA
Operating profit margin (%)
Operating profit margin
Sales revenue
Operating profit margin
Sales revenue
71%
15%
6%8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
59%
37%
4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
20
Percentage of transition from other
Unknown
Transition from other
New demand
Others
Transition from railway
Transition from vehicle
Group with no trip demand in the past
Breakdown of new demand for LCC Percentage
5% 4%
9%
42%
Source： Liberalization of European Air Transport , ELFAA , 2004
Breakdown of New Demand for LCC in Europe
Country/Region Airlines Date of Launch Route Remarks
Korea
Jeju Air March 20, 2009
Kansai=Incheon (daily) Kansai=Gimpo (daily) Kansai=Jeju (3 times a week) Chubu=Gimpo (daily) Chubu=Incheon (daily) Fukuoka=Incheon (daily)
Air Busan March 29, 2010 Fukuoka=Busan (twice a day) Kansai=Busan (twice a day) Narita=Busan (daily)
Capital: Asiana 46%
Jin Air July 15, 2011 Shin Chitose=Incheon (5 times a week) Capital: Korean Air 100%
Easter Jet May 5, 2011 Narita=Incheon (daily) Kansai=Incheon (twice a day)
T’way December 20, 2011 Fukuoka=Incheon (twice a day)
China Spring June 23, 2012
Ibaraki=Shanghai (5 times a week), Kansai=Shanghai (daily from Jan. 25, 2013) , Takamatsu=Shanghai (3 times a week), Saga=Shanghai (3 times a week),
Singapore Jetstar Asia July 5, 2010 Kansai=Taipei=Singapore (twice a day)
Kansai=Manila=Singapore (4 times a week) Capital: Qantas Group 49%
Scoot October 20, 2012 Narita=Taipei=Singapore (daily) Capital: Singapore 100%
Malaysia Air Asia X December 9, 2010 Haneda=Kuala Lumpur (daily) Kansai=Kuala Lumpur (4 times a week)
Philippines Cebu Pacific Air November 20, 2008 Kansai=Manila (3 times a week)
Australia Jet Star March 25, 2007
Narita=Gold Coast (daily) Narita=Cairns (daily) Kansai=Gold Coast (5 times a week)
Sydney-Cairns-Kansai-Cairns (4 times a week)※
Darwin=Manila=Narita (4 times a week) Darwin=Singapore=Kansai (4 times a week)
Capital: Qantas Group 100%
Foreign LCCs Operating in Japan Original schedule for winter 2012
21 ※May change during the period
Name Peach Aviation., Ltd AirAsia Japan., Ltd Jetstar Japan Co., Ltd
Capital
15 bil. yen ANA 38.7% First Eastern Aviation Holdings Ltd. 33.3% Innovation Network Corp. of Japan 28.0%
2.5 bil. yen planned to be doubled ANA 67% AirAsia 33%
9.6 bil. yen planned to be 12 bil. yen Quantas 33.3% JAL 33.3% Mitsubishi Corp. 16.7% Century Tokyo Leasing Corp. 16.7%
Hub airport Kansai Int’l Airport Narita Int’l Airport Narita Int’l Airport
Aircraft A320-200 A320-200 A320-200
Flights
Domestic: Kansai=Sapporo (Mar.1, 2012) Kansai=Fukuoka (Mar.1, 2012) Kansai=Nagasaki (Mar. 25, 2012) Kansai=Kagoshima (Apr.1, 2012) Kansai=Naha (Oct.18, 2012) International: Kansai=Incheon (May 8, 2012) Kansai=Hongkong (Jul. 1, 2012) Kansai=Taipei (Oct.16, 2012)
Domestic: Narita=Sapporo (Aug.1, 2012) Narita=Fukuoka (Aug.1, 2012) Narita=Naha (Aug.3, 2012) International: Narita=Incheon (Oct. 28, 2012) Narita=Busan (Nov.28, 012)
Domestic: Narita=Sapporo (Jul. 3, 2012) Narita=Fukuoka (Jul. 3, 2012) Narita=Okinawa (Jul.9, 2012) Narita=Kansai (Jul.9, 2012) Kansai=Sapporo (Aug.24, 2012) Kansai=Fukuoka (Aug.24, 2012) Kansai=Naha (Oct.28, 2012) International: Planning short int’l flights to China, South Korea, etc. (in 2013)
Japanese LCCs
22
The Change of Fares Before & After
ＪＡＬ ＡＮＡ
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
45,000
40,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Kansai＝Fukuoka
2011.8
ＪＡＬ ＡＮＡ Jetstar Airasia Skymark
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
45,000
40,000
0
15,000
10,000
5,000
Narita＝Fukuoka
ＪＡＬ ＡＮＡ
5,000
0
20,000
15,000
10,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
45,000
40,000
ＪＡＬ ＡＮＡ Jetstar Airasia Skymark
5,000
0
20,000
15,000
10,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
45,000
40,000
Kansai＝ Sapporo
Narita＝Sapporo
2011.8 ＪＡＬ ＡＮＡ
0
15,000
10,000
5,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
45,000
40,000
35,000
ＪＡＬ ＡＮＡ Jetstar Peach Skymark
0
15,000
10,000
5,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
45,000
40,000
35,000
ANA
10,000
5,000
0
25,000
20,000
15,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
45,000
ANA Jetstar Peach
10,000
5,000
0
25,000
20,000
15,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
45,000
※Source : Fares with notification by June 12th 2012 23
2011.8
2011.8
2012.8
2012.8
2012.8
2012.8
[unit:¥]
0500
1,0001,5002,0002,5003,000
H22.7～9 H23.7～9 H24.7～9
LCC
FSA
050
100150200250300
H22.7～9 H23.7～9 H24.7～9
LCC
FSA
0500
1,0001,5002,0002,5003,000
H22.7～9 H23.7～9 H24.7～9
FSA
Market Expansion by the Entry of LCCs （Tokyo Metropolitan Area=Sapporo）
24
※H24.9 (quick estimation)
Haneda－ Sapporo
Narita－ Sapporo
Tokyo metropolitan
area－ Sapporo
＋
ll
2,621 2,589 2,543
79 78
271
2,701 2,667 2,814
Passengers (thousand)
Passengers (thousand)
Passengers (thousand)
0
500
1,000
1,500
H22.3～8 H23.3～8 H24.3～8
LCC
FSA
0
100
200
300
H22.3～8 H23.3～8 H24.3～8
FSA
0
100
200
300
400
H22.3～8 H23.3～8 H24.3～8
FSA
0
200
400
600
800
H22.3～8 H23.3～8 H24.3～8
LCC
FSA
Market Expansion by the Entry of LCCs （Kansai Area=Sapporo）
Kansai－ Sapporo
Itami－ Sapporo
Kansai area－
Sapporo
Kobe－ Sapporo
＋
ll
＋
520
299
259
1,078
504
284
245
1,032
751
248
211
1,209
25
Passengers (thousand)
Passengers (thousand)
Passengers (thousand)
Passengers (thousand)
LCC’s Share of Passengers in Domestic Flights (Europe & Japan)
LCC
非LCC
In Japan, September 2012 （After a half year since the start of LCC )
3.2％ In Europe, 2000 2.5％
In Europe, 2010 34.4％
※Source: Seat-km based data, MLIT’s research reports and data in 2011, etc. ※Non-LCC (domestic): specified Japanese air carrier ※The number shown as of September 2012 is the preliminary result
ＬＣＣ
非ＬＣＣ
26
※Total number of passengers using pre-existing air carriers and LCC has also increased by 17%.
Non-LCC Non-LCC
LCC LCC
Promotion of New Services incl. LCCs
Airlines Framework
Promotion of “Open Skies Policy”
Infrastructure Promotion of Airport Management Reforms
Effect
Growth of Aviation Sector
Development of Japanese Economy
Background : Increase of Airport Capacity at Haneda & Narita
Policy on Aviation & Airports
28
Haneda (slots for int’l flights)
Narita Total
Until October 2010
(Before the D-runway at Haneda was put into service)
303 220 523
At present (Since March 25, 2012)
390 (60)
250 640
From the 2013 summer
schedule
(After March 31, 2013)
410 (60)
270 680
Final form
Haneda: at the end of FY 2013
Narita: during FY 2014
447 (90) 300 747
Increase of Annual Slots at the Airports in Tokyo Metropolitan Area
29
200 for domestics
300 for Internationals
*1. All the numbers are showing slots per year. *2. As the count of the slots is one slot for a take-off and one slot for a landing, one take-off and landing is counted as two slots. *3. With regards to the schedule of Narita Airport in the future, the assumption is for the earliest scenario. *4. In the number of take-off and landing slots at Haneda Airport the number of slots to be used for the operation of international charter flights early in the morning and late at night is also included.
[ 1,000 slots ]
Countries & regions
agreed Number of passengers
from/to Japan Coverage （※）
23 47.5 mil. （FY 2010）
91 %
Legend
Name of country or region The Date of Agreement (or Schedule) (Number of passengers, percentage,
Ranking)
⑥ Vietnam June 9, 2011
（0.94 mil., 2%, 12th）
③ Singapore Jan. 19, 2011
（1.79 mil., 3%, 7th）
⑧ Indonesia Aug. 11, 2011
（0.62 mil., 1%, 14th）
As of Nov. 21, 2012
（※）The total number of passengers arrive in and departure from Japan=52.08 mil. (FY2010) The open skies including the Tokyo metropolitan area airport will come off at the time Narita airport’s annual arrival and departure slots achieved 270,000, which is scheduled in the summer of 2013.
（Note1） The open skies with China came to realization except for the airports in Beijing, Shanghai, Narita, and Haneda.（Note 2) The content of agreement with Thailand will be formally confirmed when Thai’s domestic procedures completed.
⑪ Brunei Oct. 28, 2011
⑮ Sri Lanka March. 23, 2012
（0.06 mil., 0.1%, 32th）
The Progress of Talks on “Open Skies”
⑬ U.K. Jan. 20, 2012
（0.65 mil., 1%, 13th）
⑯ Finland Jun. 8, 2012
（0.40mil., 1％、19th）
⑱ China (Note1) Aug. 8, 2012
（7.94 mil., 15%, 3rd）
④ Malaysia Feb. 24, 2011
（0.53 mil., 1%, 16th）
㉓ Thailand (Note2) November 21, 2011 （2.28 mil., 4%, 6th）
② South Korea Dec. 22, 2010
（10.6 mil., 20%, 1st）
⑰ France July 7, 2012
（1.12 mil., 2%, 10th ）
⑲ Netherlands Aug. 23, 2012
（0.48 mil., 1%, 17th）
㉑ Denmark Oct. 11, 2012
（0.13 mil., 0.3%, 29th）
㉒ Norway Oct. 11, 2012
⑨ Canada Sept. 14, 2011
（0.58 mil., 1%, 15th）
① U.S.A Oct. 25, 2010
（9.96 mil., 19%, 2nd）
⑭ New Zealand Feb. 16, 2012
（0.20 mil., 0.4%, 22gh）
⑩ Australia Sept. 29, 2011
（0.94 mil., 2%, 11th）
⑦ Macau July 14, 2011
（0.07 mil., 0.1%, 31th）
⑳ Sweden Oct. 11, 2012
⑤ Hong Kong May 19, 2011
（3.55 mil., 7%, 5th）
⑫ Taiwan Nov. 10, 2011
（4.67 mil., 9%, 4th）
30
Actions for Promoting New Entry
2. Dedicated terminals for LCCs
1. Revision of technical regulations
・Corresponding to the progress of aviation technology, and to the new airline business model
・100 items revised （120 items requested）
・Simple structure, with low cost at Naha, Kansai & Narita
Promoting new entry of airlines including LCCs 31
Restructuring Airport Operations
Terminal building
Managed by company
Runway
Managed by government
Current
cost reduction
Unite “air-side” & “land-side” Managing income & cost enables each airport to set landing charge flexibly
32
Landing charges on 27 airports are uniform nationwide and managed in one special account
Different management between runway and terminal building
Future
