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AVG RUSSIAN CROP PRODUCTION FUND
AVG Russian Crop
Production Fund
1
September 14, 2011
AVG RUSSIAN CROP PRODUCTION FUND << Return to table of contents 2
All photos are of existing AVG operations
AVG RUSSIAN CROP PRODUCTION FUND << Return to table of contents
Disclaimer
THIS DOCUMENT IS CONFIDENTIAL
AND IS AVAILABLE ONLY TO
POTENTIAL INVESTORS WHO ARE
ADDRESSEES OUTSIDE OF THE
UNITED STATES, AUSTRALIA,
CANADA OR JAPAN.
IMPORTANT: You must read the
following before continuing. The following
applies to the presentation (the
„„document‟‟) following this notice, and
you are therefore advised to read this
carefully before reading, accessing or
making any other use of the document.
In accessing the document, you agree to
be bound by the following terms and
conditions, including any modifications to
them any time you receive any
information from us as a result of such
access. The document has been
prepared solely in connection with the
information purposes for certain
institutional and professional investors of
the securities described herein. This
document is not being made available to
the public.
3
This document serves exclusively as
background material introducing the AVG
CIS Agricultural Opportunities Fund (the
“Fund”).
Any potential investor should be aware
that the value of the investment is
subject to a variety of risks and may fall,
as well as rise, and investors may not get
back the amount invested.
This document is neither an offer to sell,
nor a solicitation of any offer to buy
shares in the Fund or interests in AVG
Capital Partners in any jurisdiction.
NOTHING IN THIS DOCUMENT
CONSTITUTES AN OFFER OF
SECURITIES FOR SALE IN ANY
JURISDICTION WHERE IT IS
UNLAWFUL TO DO SO. THE
SECURITIES THAT MAY BE
DESCRIBED HEREIN HAVE NOT
BEEN, AND WILL NOT BE
REGISTERED UNDER THE US
SECURITIES ACT OF 1933, AS
AMENDED (THE„„SECURITIES ACT‟‟),
OR THE SECURITIES LAWS OF ANY
STATE OF THE UNITED STATES OR
OTHER JURISDICTION AND THE
SECURITIES MAY NOT BE OFFERED
OR SOLD WITHIN THE UNITED
STATES (AS DEFINED IN
REGULATION S UNDER THE
SECURITIES ACT), EXCEPT
PURSUANT TO AN EXEMPTION
FROM, OR IN A TRANSACTION NOT
SUBJECT TO, THE REGISTRATION
REQUIREMENTS OF THE
SECURITIES ACT AND APPLICABLE
STATE OR LOCAL SECURITIES LAWS.
THIS DOCUMENT IS NOT AN
ADVERTISEMENT AND IT MAY NOT
BE FORWARDED OR DISTRIBUTED
TO ANY PERSON AND MAY NOT BE
REPRODUCED IN ANY MANNER
WHATSOEVER. ANY FORWARDING,
DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION
OF THIS DOCUMENT IN WHOLE OR
IN PART IS UNAUTHORISED. FAILURE
TO COMPLY WITH THIS DIRECTIVE
MAY RESULT IN A VIOLATION OF THE
SECURITIES ACT OR THE
APPLICABLE LAWS OF OTHER
JURISDICTIONS
AVG RUSSIAN CROP PRODUCTION FUND << Return to table of contents
Table of contents
4
(Click on links)
1. Executive summary
a) The opportunity
b) Key value drivers
c) Strengths
3. Business environment
a) Soil • Climate • Crops • Yields
b) Infrastructure
c) Government support
d) Support from state banks
e) Country information
4. Fund and management company
info
a) The management company
b) Controlling shareholder in one of
Russia‟s largest agro-holdings.
c) AVG family of agro funds
d) Fund data sheet
e) Bios
f) Risk management
5. Financial information
a) KFIs and financial statements from
model
b) Investment program
c) Economics per ha
2. Strategy and execution
a) Geographic diversity
b) Land
c) Current farm management
d) Future farm management
e) Yield improvements
f) Synergies with Razgulay
group
g) Storage
h) Exit strategy
AVG RUSSIAN CROP PRODUCTION FUND << Return to table of contents 5
1. Executive summary
2. Strategy and execution
3. Business environment
4. Fund and management company information
5. Financial information
Wheat 2011 Harvest: 310,000 tons
Hectares planted: 103,000 ha
Average yield: 3 tons / ha
Estimated sale price: $US 210 / ton
Estimated value: $US 65 million
The Kshensky elevator complex, an AVG asset
AVG RUSSIAN CROP PRODUCTION FUND << Return to table of contents
The opportunity:
6
Co-invest with one of Russia‟s leading
agri-businesses.
≈ 20% annual
ROE over first 5 years.
Existing
operations
Not a start-up. Existing assets
and management.
Access Highly profitable investment
opportunities.
Security
of having the Russian
government as co-investor and
partner.
Proven team 19 year farming track record.
Specialize in high-margin grain, sugar-
beet, and oilseed production.
People
Focus on top-quality farm
management talent, Russian
and international.
Government
partnership
Leading government
companies as equity investors.
Yield
improvements
20 – 40 % is realistic within 1-3
years.
Value
acquisitions
at steep discount to cash flow
value.
Grain storage Essential to achieve good crop
prices.
Strategy:
AVG RUSSIAN CROP PRODUCTION FUND << Return to table of contents
Key value drivers
7
Micro:
Expertise in land purchase
Inexpensive asset acquisition
Strong management
Macro:
Strong ag commodity fundamentals
Strong Russian economic growth (5%)
Government subsidies
Large scale public and private sector
investment in ag sector and infrastructure
AVG RUSSIAN CROP PRODUCTION FUND << Return to table of contents
Strengths
8
Financial Operational Risk Management
Proven fund management team Existing operations and assets Federal govt support
Access to cheap debt Synergies with existing investor-
controlled operations
Good local govt relations
30% equity IRRs for 5 years Large, quick, and realistic
productivity and yield gains
Geographic diversification
High-value acquisition
opportunities
High-margin business segments
Strong fundamentals for ag
commodities
Strong farm management team
Forward contracts on sugar-beets
and grains
Grain storage available
$50 million already under
management
Sugar beets at Razgulay‟s Lgov sugar plant, Kursk
AVG RUSSIAN CROP PRODUCTION FUND << Return to table of contents
1. Executive summary
2. Strategy and execution
3. Business environment
4. Fund and management company information
5. Financial information
Sugar Beet 2011 Harvest: 1.6 million tons
Hectares planted: 47,000 ha
Average yield: 34 tons / ha
Estimated sale price: $US 70 / ton
Estimated value: $US 112 million
The Tikhoretsky sugar-beet processing plant, an AVG asset
AVG RUSSIAN CROP PRODUCTION FUND << Return to table of contents
Geographic diversity
10
A hedge against
weather risk
Allows for more
efficient use of
machinery
Region
≈ Currently
controlled by
AVG. Could be
contributed.
≈ Expan-
sion ≈ Total
Central Black
Earth 40,000 100,000 140,000
Southern 20,000 50,000 70,000
Urals 20,000 100,000 120,000
≈ Total 80,000 250,000 330,000
Expansion plans
Razgulay combines in Krasnodar
AVG RUSSIAN CROP PRODUCTION FUND << Return to table of contents
Land
Proven ability and expertise:
11
Fair real value estimate for Black Earth Russian farmland: $4000 - $5000 / ha
Expertise in sourcing, performing
due diligence on, and acquiring land.
19 years experience and relationships.
Partnership with federal government.
Razgulay founded in 1992. One of the first large Russian agri-businesses.
Strong local government
relationships.
AVG RUSSIAN CROP PRODUCTION FUND << Return to table of contents
Current farm management at Razgulay
Farm Director
Head Engineer
Head Agronomist
Farm workers
Head of Farming
Moscow
12
Farm Director
Head Engineer
Head Agronomist
Farm workers
Farm Director
Head Engineer
Head Agronomist
Farm workers
Financial control
Legal Technology
(GPS)
Personnel Supply
purchase Field
equipment
Security Produce
sales Land
acquisition
Average farm size: 12,000 ha
Average worker salary: $400 / month
Average # of workers per 1000 ha: 10
The Razgulay Group is in the
process of implementing GPS
and related precision-agriculture
techniques on its farms.
AVG RUSSIAN CROP PRODUCTION FUND << Return to table of contents
Future farm management
CEO and top management based in
agricultural regions, not in Moscow.
Recruit top-quality international
farming team.
Work with leading global farm
management consultants to improve
technique and source talent.
Focus on achieving high quality
management, and intensive farming
per 3000 ha block.
Major strategic focus on retaining
top talent
Embrace new technologies (i.e. GPS
control systems) to improve yield
and productivity.
13
AVG RUSSIAN CROP PRODUCTION FUND << Return to table of contents
Yield improvements
Crop Current Yield
Attainable yield within 3 years
% Improvement
Wheat (Black Earth 3.4 5-6 ≈ 60%
Sugar Beet (Black Earth)
31 36 ≈ 16%
Soy (Southern region) 1.8 2.5 ≈ 40%
14
Improved technique New machinery
GPS technologies No-till technique
Precision
agriculture Better seeds
Better fertilizer use Herbicides and
pesticides
AVG RUSSIAN CROP PRODUCTION FUND << Return to table of contents
Synergies with Razgulay Group
Management expertise | Personnel recruitment | Co-investment | Forward crop contracts
Market intelligence | Investment / acquisition opportunities | Relationships
15
Grain Storage and processing Sugar Manufacturing Crop cultivation
• 22 operating units:
• 12 elevators 2.4 mm tons
capacity
• Largest in Russia - 3 grain
processing plants
• 7 flour mills
• Processed 543,000 tons in 2010
• 11 operating units:
• 10 processing plants
• 1 milk bottling plant
• Annual capacity: 4 mm tons
sugar beet and 1.4 mm tons
sugar in bulk.
• 2010 sales: 475,000 tons (14% of
Russian market)
• 23 operating units:
• Total land: 460,000 ha.
Cultivating 332,000 ha.
• 2010 harvest figures:
• Sugar beet: 926,000 tons
• Grain and oil seeds: 400,000
tons
• Bulk rice - 130,000 tons
% of sales
33%
44%
23%
AVG RUSSIAN CROP PRODUCTION FUND << Return to table of contents
Storage
16
A key strategic requirement
Access to Razgulay’s network of elevators
Extensive use of bagging
Important to achieving
maximal grain prices in Russia
A major operational and
financial advantage
All photos are of existing AVG operations
AVG RUSSIAN CROP PRODUCTION FUND << Return to table of contents
Exit strategy
17
IPO, sale, or further round financing.
Eligible for IPO in 3 years.
Convincing precedent for FSU ag
IPOs in London, Warsaw, Frankfurt,
Stockholm, Moscow.
As Russian farming becomes more
productive, and more fully invested,
possible selective asset sales at
steep premium to acquisition cost.
AVG will be proactive in maximizing
shareholder valuation in future years.
AVG RUSSIAN CROP PRODUCTION FUND 18
1. Executive summary
2. Strategy and execution
3. Business environment
4. Fund and management company information
5. Financial information
Sunflower 2011 Harvest: 38,000 tons
Hectares planted: 24,000 ha
Average yield: 1.6 tons / ha
Estimated sale price: $US350 / ton
Estimated value: $US 13 million
AVG RUSSIAN CROP PRODUCTION FUND << Return to table of contents
Soil • climate • crops • yields
19
Wheat
Barley
Sugar-beet
Sunflower
Soy
Rapeseed
Rice
Potatoes
Buckwheat
The richest topsoil in
the world. Called “Black Earth”, or
“Chernozem” it is unusually fertile,
a true natural phenomenon. It
contains a very high percentage of
humus (10% to 15%), and high
percentages of phophoric acids,
phosphorus, and ammonia,
requiring less fertilizer and
delivering excellent yields. Most
topsoil in the US and Europe has
a depth of 6 -12 inches (15 – 30
cm). In this region of Russia, the
topsoil averages 40 inches (1
meter) in depth, and sometimes
reaches 80 inchest (2 meters)!
Climate The climate in this region is similar
to the northern American Midwest
(North Dakota), but delivers better
yields due to the richer soil.
Yields Without fertilizer, Chernozem
yields an average of 3 metric tons
of wheat per hectare, and with
fertilizer, reliable yields are as
high as 6 tons. The soil is so rich it is actually black,
like potting soil from a garden shop.
Hence its name, “Black Earth”.
AVG RUSSIAN CROP PRODUCTION FUND << Return to table of contents
Infrastructure: Good local roads and rail links
20
Local roads connecting farms in a typical Central Black
Earth region. Small circles are usually farms 3 – 4 km
distant from each other.
A typical local road in the central black earth
region: well-maintained and not crowded.
Compare to Brazil: almost no rail and far
fewer roads which are badly over-
crowded.
The black sea port of
Novorossisk. It, and
other Russian ports
are being rapidly
expanded.
It is a common
misperception that
Russia has poor
infrastructure.
In fact, in the
agricultural regions, it is
quite well developed,
and not over-burdened,
as in Brazil.
The government is
investing heavily in
modernization,
particularly of ports and
transportation.
Highway
construction in
the black
earth region in
European
Russia.
AVG RUSSIAN CROP PRODUCTION FUND << Return to table of contents
Major government sector support
21
Agriculture is a top government priority. It‟s viewed as vital element of national security, a key contributing factor to national
export earnings, and a key area of sustainable long-term competitiveness
Tax benefits (0% profit tax, 20.2% payroll tax, 10% VAT)
Subsidized agricultural credits
Subsidized lease terms
Fertilizer and energy cost reimbursement
Introduction of minimum shares of domestic food
production by segment
Government grain purchase to support prices
Effective tariff regulation and state protection from
imports
Financial support Favorable industry regulation
Share of domestic production
Source: Russian Ministry of Agriculture
95%
80% 80%85%
90%95%
100%
56%
92%
75%83%
99%
Grain Sugar Vegetables Meat and meat
products
Milk and milk
products
Potatoes
Minimum shares accorging to Doctrine
Actual shares, 2009
Financial support for the agricultural sector by purpose
11 10 9 9 928 37 45 48 488 11 11 12 137
19 25 30 31
19
1825 22 2383
99108
121 132
35 5 4 6
159
199
228246
262
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E
Animal breeding subsidies Interest rate subsidies
Subsidies on fertilizers Plant grow ing subsidies
Construction capex Other from federal budget
Subsidies from regional budgets
Source: Russian Ministry of Agriculture
RUR bn
AVG RUSSIAN CROP PRODUCTION FUND
Government agricultural support as % of gross farm receipts 2008-2012 Federal Program for Agriculture Development
Source: Federal Program for Agriculture Development and Regulation of Agricultural Markets for 2008-2012;
2008-2010 GDP data - Rosstat, 2011-2012 GDP - Federal Law for Federal budget
Note: Total government spending includes plant growing subsidies, interest subsidies, animal breeding subsidies,
land fertilities subsidies, construction capex, etc.
% of
GDP
Government support of the industry
Program for Development of sugar beet complex in Russia for over RUR61 bn
of government spending in 2010 – 2012
Floating import tariff on raw sugar and prohibitive tariff on white sugar allow for
stable domestic sugar price and profitability of domestic producers
Access to long-term loans at subsidized interest rates
0% income tax for agricultural producers until 2013
Despite Russia‟s strong intentions of entering WTO in 2011, the government is
planning to continue general industry support, i.e.:
− Ministry of Agriculture insists on maintaining overall government
agricultural spending at the current level until 2017
− Ongoing negotiations with WTO members on keeping meat import quotas
and raw sugar tariffs at the previously agreed level
Producer Support Estimate (PSE) as % of gross farm receipts,
last 3 years average
Source: OECD, PSE database, 2009 and 2010
(1) PSE is an indicator of the annual monetary value of gross transfers from consumers and taxpayers to agricultural
producers, arising from policy measure. It measures support arising from policies targeted to agriculture relative to a
situation without such policies
(2) 2007-09 average for Japan, EU27, OECD, Turkey, Canada and United States (latest available).
2005-07 average for Russia, China and Brazil (latest available)
(3) 2009 data for Japan, EU27, OECD, Turkey, Canada and United States (latest available).
2007 data for Russia, China and Brazil (latest available)
2
1
6%
9%
9%
14%
17%
22%
23%
34%
47%
Brazil
China
United States
Russia
Canada
OECD
EU27
Turkey
Japan
PSE as % of GDP 3
0.9%
3.7%
0.7%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.2%
1.4%
0.4%
Russia Worldwide
228 246 262
199 159
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Total government spending, RUR bn
0.39% 0.51% 0.51% 0.49% 0.47%
Government support 2
AVG RUSSIAN CROP PRODUCTION FUND << Return to table of contents
Strong partnerships with authorities and state banks
AVG works closely with VEB in managing and developing Razgulay and related investment projects. A government owned bank,
VEB, the 3rd largest bank in Russia, holds 80% of the outstanding debt of Razgulay.
AVG also closely cooperates with regional governors and administrations in subsidies, land purchasing and investment projects
sourcing matters.
Russian government debt financing ≈ 70% of investment need, at preliminary agreed near 2% real interest rate, dramatically
increases equity returns .
23
Support from VEB, federal and local authorities Collaboration with major lenders in agriculture
AVG RUSSIAN CROP PRODUCTION FUND << Return to table of contents
Russian agriculture is highly attractive
A top 5 world agro economy
#2 in arable land. Large arable land expansion possibilities
Relatively inexpensive land resources ($300-400/Ha vs approx.
$4000 for global comps)
Projected investment of $17 to $20 billion per year in 2011-2015
Government subsidies and incentives
Large and growing export and domestic markets.
Import substitution.
24
173
123
94
67
59
38
33
0 50 100 150 200
USA
Russia
Europe
Brazil
Other LA countries
Indonesia
Ukraine
Arable land
Source: FAOSTAT Source: Conab, Indonesian Ministry of Agriculture, USDA, FAO, Credit Suisse
ha mm
Country rank in the world by products
#1
#2
#3
#4
Oats, sunflower seed,
barley, rye, buckwheat
Sugar beets
Potatoes
Wheat
AVG RUSSIAN CROP PRODUCTION FUND << Return to table of contents
Robust markets
25
Fastest growing export markets
Import
substitution
Expanding economy fueling
domestic consumption
Pork Poultry Dairy Food Processing
AVG RUSSIAN CROP PRODUCTION FUND
Strong government support Comments Large and fast growing food market in Russia
Food consumption in Russia has a strong
growth potential (CAGR of 13.3% in 2011E-
2014E)
Obsolete and inefficient production
infrastructure
Highly fragmented and unconsolidated market
Opportunity for the market consolidation for
efficient players
124140
167193
160185
211
240
272
306
2005A 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E
Food consumption, US$ bn Food consumption per capita, US$
863 982 1,178 1,361 1,125 1,307 1,492 1,708 1,940 2,191
Source: Russian Ministry of Agriculture, Business Monitor International Ltd
CAGR 2005-09 6.6%
CAGR 2010-14 13.3%
Fast sector growth
AVG RUSSIAN CROP PRODUCTION FUND << Return to table of contents 27
1. Executive summary
2. Strategy and execution
3. Business environment
4. Fund and management company information
5. Financial information
Rice: 2011 Harvest: 112,000 tons
Hectares planted: 19,000 ha
Average yield: 6 tons / ha
Estimated sale price: $US 380 / ton
Estimated value: $US 43 million
The Poltavsky rice processing plant in Krasnodar, an AVG asset
Rice paddies in Krasnodar
AVG RUSSIAN CROP PRODUCTION FUND << Return to table of contents
The fund management company
Founded in 2007
Over $200 million AUM (including soft commitments)
Successful track record in agriculture – in spring 2010 acquired
control of Razgulay Group, a public company, one of largest
Russian diversified agro-holdings. Stock gain as of March 31,
2011: 26%
28
Stock price (RUR)
Source: Bloomberg
0
20
40
60
80
100
Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11
+26%
AVG RUSSIAN CROP PRODUCTION FUND << Return to table of contents
29
AVG RUSSIAN CROP PRODUCTION FUND << Return to table of contents
Controlling shareholder in one of Russia’s
largest agro-holdings
Razgulay Group is one of the largest players in the
Russian agricultural market:
‒ 460 ha land bank under management
‒ # 1 in rice cultivation (over 30% of Russian market)
‒ A leading sugar manufacturer (14% of the Russian
market)
‒ One of largest elevator operators in Russia
30
Wheat production
Wheat and sugar production
One of top 5 land banks
Source: Ministry of Agriculture, IKAR
Financial Indicators
RUR bn
Source: Razgulay Group
30.2
25.9
0
10
20
30
40
2009 2010П
3.1 4.1
2009 2010П
10%
16%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2009 2010П
Sales EBITDA EBITDA margin
thousand ha 570
500460 460 450
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Prodimex Иволга-
холдинг
Разгуляй НАПКО Золотой
КолосIvolga-
Holding
Razgulay
NAPKO Zolotoy
Kolos
AVG RUSSIAN CROP PRODUCTION FUND << Return to table of contents
AVG family of FSU ag funds
31
Name Status Focus
Current AUM, or
assets currently
controlled, proposing
to contribute
Target
add’tl
raise
≈ Annual
ROE over
5 years
1 FSU
Agricultural
Opportunities
Fund
Fund is registered. Advanced
discussions with investors. Assets partly
acquired by AAM and acquisition targets
identified.
Diversified FSU ag
assets. Protein,
crops, sugar, rice.
Opportunistic focus.
≈ $200 million $800
million
30%
2 Russian
Poultry Fund
Initial planning stage. Fund not
registered.
Poultry production ≈ $100 million $500
million
30%
3 Russian Crop
Production
Fund
Proposed. (Subject of current
presentation)
Grain, sugar beet,
oilseed cultivation,
land acquisition.
≈ $50 million $500
million
30%
4 Russian Sugar
Fund
Proposed Sugar
manufacturing from
sugar beets.
≈ $100 million $600
million
30%
5 Russian Rice
Fund
Proposed Rice cultivation ≈ $50 million $200
million
30%
• Total assets currently owned by AVG and in operation: $100 million.
• Investment projects: ≈ $2 billion.
• 70% debt financing available for all projects @ 2% real interest.
Additional investment projects:
• Greenhouse vegetable cultivation
• Aquaculture (fish farming)
AVG RUSSIAN CROP PRODUCTION FUND << Return to table of contents
Russian crop cultivation fund data sheet (proposed)
32
Structure Closed end
Currency $US
Domicile Cayman Islands
Geographic
Focus Russia and CIS
Sector focus Crop cultivation
Agricultural land
Investment
amount 30% of fund assets
Minimal
investment $1 million
Investment
Manager
Avangard Asset Management
Target size Min: $500 million
Max: $1.5 billion
Term 5 years with a possible 2 year extension
Investment
project maturity
horizon
3-7 years
Target Return 20 - 30% annual
Exit Strategy
IPO/ Private placement
Sale to strategic investor
Private sale of stock
Dividend policy Quarterly
Fees 1.5% management fee
20% performance fee
Loss
compensation
reserve
50% of management equity is held in reserve as a
security against possible management loss
Administrator
Auditor
Legal
AVG RUSSIAN CROP PRODUCTION FUND << Return to table of contents
Bios
33
Rustem Mirgalimov
Since 2010 and currently: Chairman of the
Board and CEO of the Razgulay Group
Since 2007 and currently: Managing
Partner of AVG Capital Partners
2006-2008: Member of Supervisory Board
of the Russian National Association of
Securities Markets Participants
Prior to AVG, Senior Executive and from
2004 Deputy Chairman of AK BARS Bank,
a Top-20 Russian universal bank
Prior to AK BARS Bank, Mr. Mirgalimov
was the CEO of Art-Finance, an
investment company
MBA 2005 Chicago Business School
Degree in finance from Kazan State
Financial and Economic Institute (1995)
and in law from Kazan State University
(1997)
Dmitry Steinsapir
From 2010 and currently: Board member of Razgulay Group
Since 2009 and currently: Managing Partner at AVG Capital Partners
2006-2008: Member of Supervisory Board of the Russian National Association of Securities Markets Participants
2005 -2007: Member of the board of RTS, the leading Russian securities exchange.
Prior to AVG, led the investment division of AK BARS Bank, and was CEO of AK BARS Finance.
Prior to AK BARS, CEO of the Prospekt Brokerage, one of Russia‟s first brokerages
Prior to Prospekt, senior management positions at Russian branches of ING Barings and ABN Amro
MBA 2005 Chicago Business School
MBA 1996 Moscow International Business School
Registered CPA (2006)
Eldar Nazmutdinov
Since 2010: Partner at AVG Capital Partners
Prior to AVG, co-head of legal department of
New Russia Growth, a Russian growth
strategy private equity fund
Prior to NRG, head of legal at Sputnik Group,
a leading Russian private equity fund
Prior to Sputnik, Deputy CEO at the Prospekt
Brokerage, one of Russia‟s first brokerages
Extensive experience in M&A in financial
services, IT, telecoms, and retail
2002 Degree in international law from
MGIMO, Russia‟s leading university of
international relations.
Certified tax consultant
AVG RUSSIAN CROP PRODUCTION FUND << Return to table of contents
Risk management
34
Political country risk 1 Partnership with federal government
Legal conflict resolution risk 2 Partnership with federal government
Land title risk 3 Expert experience in land acquisition, title due diligence.
Partnership with federal government
Government corruption risk 4 Partnership with federal government
Weather risk 5 Crop insurance. Crop diversity. Geographic diversity.
Government regulation risk
(export restrictions) 6 Unlikely over long term
Commodity price risk 7 Strong forward fundamentals
Crop risk 8 Crop insurance. Crop diversity. Geographic diversity.
Decrease in asset prices 9 Already deeply undervalued. Nowhere to go but up.
Risk factor Response
AVG RUSSIAN CROP PRODUCTION FUND
1. Executive summary
2. Strategy and execution
3. Business environment
4. Fund and management company information
5. Financial information
3
5
Soy 2011 Harvest: 37,000 tons
Hectares planted: 23,000 ha
Average yield: 1.6 tons / ha
Estimated sale price: $US 530 / ton
Estimated value: $US 20 million
Harvesting soy on a Razgulay farm in Krasnodar
AVG RUSSIAN CROP PRODUCTION FUND << Return to table of contents 36
Key Results
Returns Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7
ROE (annual) -11% 19% 24% 20% 17% 14% 12%
Production Best scenario Base scenario Worst scenario Current IRR (cumulative) 0% 0% 0% 0% 7% 21% 29%
Operating costs + Depreciation (% of revenue) 60% 70% 80% 70% IRR for the project 29%
1 time land improvement ($ per ha) 100 150 200 150
Yield within 3 years of start cultivation 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,2 Debt
Crop failure allowance 7% 10% 20% 10% Debt 76 497 642 136 709 367 199 544 831 199 544 831 199 544 831 199 544 831 199 544 831
Interest coverage 0 13 19 24 29 33 37
Financial Best scenario Base scenario Worst scenario Current
Debt to equity ratio 70% 60% 50% 100% Required Investment
Wheat price: (% increase per yr) 13% 12% 11% 0% Total project 127 496 070 100 352 875 104 725 774 0 0 0 0
Land price: (% increase per yr) 40% 35% 20% 0% Cumulative project 127 496 070 227 848 945 332 574 719 332 574 719 332 574 719 332 574 719 332 574 719
Tax rate 7% 9% 11% 9% From debt 76 497 642 60 211 725 62 835 465 0 0 0 0
Discount rate 12% 15% 18% 15% Cumulative debt 76 497 642 136 709 367 199 544 831 199 544 831 199 544 831 199 544 831 199 544 831
Real Interest Rate 1% 2% 4% 4% From equity 50 998 428 40 141 150 41 890 310 0 0 0 0
Contingency on equity capital 25% 25% 25% 25% Cumulative equity 50 998 428 91 139 578 133 029 888 133 029 888 133 029 888 133 029 888 133 029 888
Other Contribution to increase in shareholder's equity
% of land owned as property (as opposed to lease) 70% (Changeable) Net profit from operations 28% 45% 54% 52% 48% 44%
Exchange rates Constant Land appreciation 24% 22% 46% 48% 52% 56%
Inflation Zero Additional Capital 48% 33% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other
Shareholders equity 45 868 475 129 918 581 255 630 283 389 704 920 564 086 377 782 765 792 1 056 436 563
Net cash flow -85 526 809 3 232 758 -17 656 075 67 957 846 93 413 013 104 669 581 129 734 548
Net profit -5 129 953 25 197 802 60 408 755 77 292 284 97 227 053 113 261 306 129 734 548
DCF value of company 298 886 524 469 121 235 430 750 217 403 651 697 327 594 700 247 886 437 374 979 859
Land controlled (ha) 120 000 120 000 200 000 200 000 200 000 200 000 200 000
For additional ratios and financial indicators, see the "Additional FI" sheet.
Base scenarioCurrently running: (Drop down menu):
(For other assumptions, see "Additional Assumptions" sheet)
Basic Assumptions
Note: In addition to choosing a scenario, you can manually insert any value in the high-lighted column.
Key assumptions and financial indicators from model
AVG RUSSIAN CROP PRODUCTION FUND << Return to table of contents 37
Current Scenario: Base scenario1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Income Statement Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7
Revenue from cultivation 121,413,600 254,580,480 316,424,909 389,446,042 436,179,567 488,521,115
Cost of goods sold, operating expenses,
depreciation84,989,520 178,206,336 221,497,436 272,612,229 305,325,697 341,964,780
One time land improvement costs per ha
of acquired land18,000,000 12,000,000
Operating Profit 36,424,080 76,374,144 94,927,473 116,833,812 130,853,870 146,556,334
Interest Expense 1,529,953 2,734,187 3,990,897 3,990,897 3,990,897 3,990,897 3,990,897
Amortization of Land improvement costs 3,600,000 6,000,000 6,000,000 6,000,000 6,000,000 2,400,000
Profit before Tax -5,129,953 27,689,893 66,383,247 84,936,576 106,842,916 124,462,973 142,565,438
Tax 2,492,090 5,974,492 7,644,292 9,615,862 11,201,668 12,830,889
Net Profit after Tax -5,129,953 25,197,802 60,408,755 77,292,284 97,227,053 113,261,306 129,734,548
21% 24% 24% 25% 26% 27%
Balance Sheet Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7
Cash and Cash Equivalents 23,969,261 113,791,047 196,632,134 259,179,520 345,786,640 442,527,929 563,181,059
Goods in process 25,496,856 53,461,901 66,449,231 81,783,669 91,597,709 102,589,434 102,589,434
Land Beginning of Year 58,500,000 78,975,000 177,693,750 239,886,563 323,846,859 437,193,260
Add: Purchase of Land 58,500,000 71,077,500
Add: Appeciation in land value 20,475,000 27,641,250 62,192,813 83,960,297 113,346,401 153,017,641
Land Value at the end of year 58,500,000 78,975,000 177,693,750 239,886,563 323,846,859 437,193,260 590,210,901
One time land improvement costs (Gross) 18,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000
Less: Accumulated Amortization 3,600,000 9,600,000 15,600,000 21,600,000 27,600,000 30,000,000 30,000,000
One time land improvement costs (Net) 14,400,000 20,400,000 14,400,000 8,400,000 2,400,000
Total Assets 122,366,117 266,627,948 455,175,115 589,249,751 763,631,208 982,310,623 1,255,981,394
Long-Term Debt 76,497,642 136,709,367 199,544,831 199,544,831 199,544,831 199,544,831 199,544,831
Shareholders Equity
Capital 50,998,428 91,139,578 133,029,888 133,029,888 133,029,888 133,029,888 133,029,888
Retained earnings -5,129,953 18,304,003 74,484,146 146,365,970 236,787,130 342,120,144 462,773,274
Add: Appeciation in land value 20,475,000 48,116,250 110,309,063 194,269,359 307,615,760 460,633,401
Total Shareholder's Equity 45,868,475 129,918,581 255,630,283 389,704,920 564,086,377 782,765,792 1,056,436,563
Total Liabilities and Shareholders Equity 122,366,117 266,627,948 455,175,115 589,249,751 763,631,208 982,310,623 1,255,981,394
Cash Flow Statement Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7
Net Cash flow from Operating activities -27,026,809 3,232,758 53,421,425 67,957,846 93,413,013 104,669,581 129,734,548
Land Purchase 58,500,000 71,077,500
Land improvement costs 18,000,000 12,000,000
Net Cash flow from Investing activities -76,500,000 -12,000,000 -71,077,500
Financing activities
Cash inflow (outflow) from Long-term borrowing76,497,642 60,211,725 62,835,465
Equity Capital raised 50,998,428 40,141,150 41,890,310
Dividends Paid -1,763,846 -4,228,613 -5,410,460 -6,805,894 -7,928,291 -9,081,418
Net Cash flow from Financing activities 127,496,070 98,589,029 100,497,161 -5,410,460 -6,805,894 -7,928,291 -9,081,418
Change in Cash Position 23,969,261 89,821,786 82,841,086 62,547,386 86,607,119 96,741,289 120,653,130
Cash and cash equivalents, beginning of year 23,969,261 113,791,047 196,632,134 259,179,520 345,786,640 442,527,929
Cash and cash equivalents, end of year 23,969,261 113,791,047 196,632,134 259,179,520 345,786,640 442,527,929 563,181,059
Financial statements from model
Razgulay’s estimated
2011 crop value:
Sugar Beet: $112 million
Wheat: $65 million
Rice: $43 million
Soy: $20 million
Flax: $16 million
Sunflower: $13 million
Barley: $12 million
Other: $1 million
Total: $282 million
AVG RUSSIAN CROP PRODUCTION FUND << Return to table of contents
Additional information
38
NET SALES / ha $1,000
(4 tons/ha @ $250 less
moisture and foreign
matter avg)
VARIABLE COSTS PER HA
Land $43
Equipment $70
Fertilizer $85
Fuel & Lubricants $50
Seeds $70
Chemicals $56
Storage and Transport $40
Field Labor $20
TOTAL VARIABLE COSTS $434
Management $30
TOTAL COSTS $464
GROSS PROFIT PER HA $536
CONTINGENCY @ 12% -$120
NET PROFIT PER HA $416
PROFITS / SALES 42%
Economics per hectare:
Item Amount Comments
Land acquisition $125 mil ≈ 250,000 ha @$500 / ha
Equipment purchase
/ lease, upgrades $165 mil ≈ $500 per ha for 330,000 ha
Working capital $165 mil ≈ $500 per ha for 330,000 ha
Senior management $3 mil For first three years @ $1 million per year.
Total ≈ $458
mil Over ≈ 3 years
Investment Program:
Razgulay combines in Volgograd, 2009
AVG RUSSIAN CROP PRODUCTION FUND << Return to table of contents
Contact info
39
Charles Bausman
Director for Investments
AVG Capital Partners
www.avgfund.com
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