7/27/2019 AVAC AIDS Tipping Point

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THE TIPPING POINTOne way to measure progress in fghting AIDS is to comparethe number o new HIV inections with the increase in HIVpositive people on antiretroviral therapy (ART) over a given timeperiod. An AIDS epidemic reaches its tipping point when thenumber o annual new HIV inections alls below the annualincrease in patients starting ART. Coverage matters. A frstmilestone is treating approximately two thirds o the people inneed in a given country. Once that level is reached, countriesand advocates can track progress to the tipping point.

However, a country can reach the tipping point and then crossbackreturning to a situation where incidence outstrips rate

o ART initiation. Thats why it is escoverage rates o high-impact premedical male circumcision, male areduction. Newer strategies such amicrobicide or vaccine should also

The pace at which treatment and is key. To reach the tipping point tare started on treatment should aTo stay on course countries and dfnancial and human resource comcombination prevention.

Understanding a crucial milestone in

the AIDS response

12,000

25,614

Botswana

Increase in Patients onTreatment in Botswana in 2012

New Infections in Botswana in 2012

98,000

65,044

Kenya

Increase in Patients onTreatment in Kenya in 2012

New Infections in Kenya in 2012

1

0

2

4

Countries that have not reached the tipping point

Countries that have reached the tipping point

Botswana

Kenya

0.47

TIPPING POINTRate of ART treatment scale-up

outpaces HIV incidence.When rate of scale-up = incidence, tipping point ratio = 1.

Countries that have reached tipping point have values < 1;

Countries that have not have values > 1.

Increase in people on ART

New HIV infections

3

Estimated ARTCoverage in 2012

1

Estimated ARTCoverage in 20121

95%

81%Global and regional figures

1 Based on WHO 2010 Guidelines; WHO issued updated guideli nes in June 2013, Consolidated Guidelines on the Use o Antiretroviral Drugs or Treating and P

or a public health approach. www.who.int/hiv/pub/guidelines/arv2013/download/en/index.html

2 UPEPFAR. PEPFAR Blueprint: Creating an AIDS-ree generation. November 2012. www.pepar.gov/documents/organizati on/201386.pd

3 U NAIDS. UNAIDS report on the global AIDS epidemic 2013. www.unaids.org/en/media/unaids/c ontentassets/docume nts/epidemiology/2 013/gr2013/UNAIDS

4 UNAIDS. UNAIDS report on the global AIDS epidemic 2012. www.unaids.org/en/medi a/unaids/contentasse ts/documents/epidemio logy/2012/

gr2012/20121120_UNAIDS_Global_Report_2012_with_annexes_en.pd Global progress in reducing new HIV inections and scaling up antiretroviral treatment by 2012