Automotive industry Facts and Figures 2014 Guido Nelissen
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Iam...absolutely mesmerized by some of the double-digit
performances that ive seen coming out of the supplier base. And
unfortunately, when i see this, my blood pressure goes up,
Marchionne, CEO FCA The car has to adapt to what Apple is doing, to
what Google is doing, and thats an uncomfortable situation and not
one automakers have been in, in the past, Mr. Singh, Qualcomm
Luxury vehicles and trucks, including pickups and large SUVs
account for 14% of global car sales but 60% of sector profits, Dan
Ammann, President GM European suppliers as Faurecia and Valeo have
a five-to 10-year window for above-average organic growth because
of automotive megatrends, John Stanley, Automotive News Europe
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1. Markets First increase in registrations since 2007: +5,7%
Spain: +18% Stagnation in France Collapse of the Russian market:
-35% Forecast: +3 to 4% in 2015 Sales in the US plunged over 6,5m
to 10m between 2007 and 2009, but after 6 years of growth, they
have reached the again the pre- crisis level of 17 m. (however what
goes up, must go down sometime...) Global light vehicle production
will increase from 82,6m in 2014 to 105m in 2018 Non-NAFTA vehicle
imports in the US peaked at 26% in 2009 but declined since to 21%
nowadays, in large part thanks to expansion of car production in
Mexico (8 new assembly lines are expected to come online in the
country until 2020 representing 2m extra- capacity) 3
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2. Strategic alliances ZF (9th) acquired TRW (9th)to create the
global No.2 (behind Bosch but surpassing Denso) for about $11-12bn
ZF (Friedrichshaven): powertrains and chassis, TRW (Michigan):
worlds biggest car-safety equipment supplier (airbags, collision
sensors, braking-and steering equipment) As part of the agreement
Bosch will take over the 50% share of ZF in their joint-venture for
steering systems (expected antitrust issues) Rationale: The deal
bring together under one roof all the technologies needed to have a
fully automated vehicle ZF wants a bigger foothold in the market
for self-driving and connected cars 6
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Strategic alliance Nissan-Mercedes since 2010 Small
cross-shareholdings Joint development and manufacturing of
componets Twingo and Smart are build on the same platform Citan Van
is built with Renault A new joint-venture will be set up in
Aguascalientes Mexico (where Nissan has already a plant) with a
capacity of 300,000 vehicles (subcompact, start in 2017). Both
partners will also collaborate on advanced research, design of
premium compact vehicles Daimler will sell its 4% stake in Tesla
(in 2009 it took a stake of 9,1% but as a result of capital
increases this was watered down). 8
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new owner of Saab, National Electric Vehicle Sweden (owned by
National Modern Energy (a Chinese renewable power-plant builder)
sought protection from its creditors as it failed to deliver on a
objective to produce 120.000 cars. Probably Indias Mahindra will
buy NEVS. Mahindra will buy 51% of Peugeot Scooters in order to
support the international expansion of the struggling twowheeler
businesses of both groups Mahindra acquires technology and design
from PSA PSA Scooters is already making losses for 10 years
European market lost 45% of sales since 2007 although small
scooters have been outsourced to Chinese Qingqi in 2007) 9
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3. Social Volvo Trucks: -4,400 globally of which 1,300 with
Renault Trucks in France (of which 800 consultants and 500
open-ended contracts) PSA: -3,450 in 2015 (1,500 early retirements,
1,400 transfers to new positions, 550 buy-outs) but also creation
of 2,000 apprenticeships AvtoVAZ: - 7.500 in 2014 from 55,000 to
30,000 by 2020 mainly white collars (there are situations when we
have managers who only manage one person) 5 bn. Cost savings plan
with VW, 2 bn. With Audi Externalisation components (transmissions
Kassel?) Ceasing unprofitable models? GM St.Petersburg: from 3 to 2
shifts (500 redundancies on 2,000 workers Ford Craiova (B-Max
minivan): -680 10
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Honda Swindon: elimination of 1 production line and cutting 750
jobs in two restructurings (Honda Europe is lossmaking since 2007)
Dealerships have fallen by 12% to 47.500 in western Europe since
2007 (-24% in Spain) 11
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Volvo Gent: insourcing of Johnson Controls Interior (180 empl.)
and DSV (pre-assembly and warehousing, 600 empl.) as part of a
strategy for a more age-related HMR policy The new flagship XC90
SUV Volvo will be built in Torslanda and add 1,300 jobs (which
increases total employment to 4,600) Bittersweet: Ford Valencia
Capacity +40% to 400,000 (2000 cars per day) Since 2013 it added
3000 jobs to 8000 6 models Relocation from Ford Genk 12
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Employment 13
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4. Company strategies 14
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FCA FCA quoted at NYSE since October, HQ in UK and registration
in the Netherlands: final step in the conversion of a Italian
small-car company into a US focused manufacturer powered by 4x4s
and pick- up trucks ambition is to increase sales by more than 50%
to 7m by 2018 By launching 30 new models (48 bn investment plan) By
bringing Alfa, Jeep and Maserati to the emerging markets By
reviving struggling Chrysler marque in the US and quadrupling sales
of Alfa (re-entry on the US markets) Supported by a rebound in SUVs
and pick-ups in the US But Fiat is carrying about 10 bn net debt
(and 8 bn pension obligations) Will sell its remaining shares (6%
in total) in CNH to US investors for about 602m EUR 15
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Spin-off of Ferrari 10% of the shares will be sold to the
public by mid-2015 Remainder of FCAs 90 per cent stake will be
handed over to the groups shareholders Estimates of the value of
Ferrari range between 5bn to 12bn 16
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Mercedes Overhaul of its manufacturing operations Moving away
from a manufacturing network controlled by individual factories to
a leaner system centered around vehicle architectures and model
lines Individual plants will no longer operate autonomously but
production will be organized according to product architectures,
independent of locations Four senior managers (for each of the
brands architectures) will replace the individual plant directors
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Renault Increase of production in France from 510.000 (2013) to
710,000 in 2016 new models for Douai (Espace, Laguna), Sandouville
(Trafic) and Flins (Nissan Micra) this will create 750/1,000
extra-jobs (open-ended contracts), after having reduced employment
with 8,200 convergence plan for closer integration of engineering,
manufacturing, purchasing and human resources By 2020 70% of
vehicles to be built on 3 platforms (Common Module Family, CMF)
Synergies will increase from 2,8bn in 2013 to 4,3bn in 2016 18
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PSA China has become its biggest market with of its volume
Construction of 4th assembly plant in China has started in Wuhan
(360.000 vehicles). Dongfeng Peugeot has already 3 plants in Wuhan
(600.000 cars a year). PSA has also a jv with Chongqing Changan
Automobile (in Shenzhen, 200.000 vehicles) Component sourcing from
low-cost countries will be doubled to 40% PSA will set-up a R&D
center in Casablanca (the center will be run jointly with
consultant Altran) first step for low-cost production in the
country? Start of production of CKD kits in Kazakhstan Production
in Poissy will be reduced to a single line as the C3 will be
produced in Slovakia. Poissy (Peugeot 208 and DS3 subcompact) will
produce a new compact vehicle in 2018 which will safeguard the
future of the plant 19
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Ford Profit forecasts for the EU pushed back from next year
until after 2015 The first aluminium-bodied F150 pick-up truck
drove off the production line in Dearborn which should reduce
weight by 13% and fuel consumption by between 5 and 20% F-series
stand for 90% of Fords global profit in recent years 20
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Volvo Unveiled its first new model under Chinese ownership, the
XC- 90, a make-or-break model as Volvo had to become independent
from platforms, engines and components from Ford: a new
architecture (SPA, Scalable Product Architecture), a new
powertrain, new vehicle and new electrification The XC90 should
boost sales in the US and China (both 61,000 with a decline of 50%
in the US in the last decade) The car will be built in Sweden Next
up for a complete refresh is the S90 Chinese-built S60L will be
shipped to the US Volvo wants to increase sales from 428,000 in
2013 to 800,000 by 2020 21
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Components Visteon is considering a plan to split the company
into 2, one focused on electronics (and connected car technology)
and the other on climate controls It will sell its 70% in a Korean
climate controls joint-venture to Hahn & Co, a Korean private
equity fund and to tyremaker Hankook. Also Federal Mogul will split
its retail replacement parts from its engine parts division These
deals show a continued move away from being supplier conglomerates
and towards auto technologies 22
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Regions 23
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China In 2013 GM reported $3,7 bn net income by its Chinese
joint- ventures (against $3,8 bn. Overall net income) China
accounts for 1/3 of VWs and GMs vehicle sales GM will open 5 new
assembly plants In 2013 VW reported 9,6 bn operating profits in
China compared with 11,7 bn worldwide Qoros, set up in 2007 by
Chery and Israel Corporation (now Singapore based Kendon), entered
the European market (Slovakia) JLRs first China factory was opened
in Changsu and will produce the Range Rover Evoque and a Jaguar
saloon (from 2016). The plant with a capacity of 130,000 is a jv
with state- owned Chery 24
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Russia Slump in Russia: sales -16% in 2014, -35% in 2015?
Weaker ruble (-40%) undermines carmakers that import most of their
parts GM, Audi and JLR temporarily stopped selling cars Ford writes
off all the equity in its jv called Sollers ($329m) 25
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Technology Hybrid Air technology PSA 26
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Electrical Powertrains Sales EV: from 31,615 in 2013 to 53,000
in 2014. Nissan Leaf is market leader followed by Tesla S, BMW i3
and Renault Zo Probably plug-in hybrids will overtake the electric
vehicles in 2015 (Mitsubishi Outlander, BMW i3 and Volvo V60) GM
will discontinue Ampera (a rebadged Volt and Car of the Year in
2012) after the redesign of the latter in 2016 Market for lithium
batteries dominated by Panasonic (36%) and Automotive Energy Supply
Corp. (a joint-benture between Nissan and NEC) while US battery
makers as Ener1 and A123 Systems filed for bankruptcy PSA will
discontinue its Hybrid Air technology 27
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GM Bolt: Complete shake-up of the EV market? 28
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Hydrogen Toyota launched the first hydrogen-powered car on the
mass market, the Mirai (66,000 EUR without subsidies and tax
credits) Also Hyundai started leasing a fuel-cell car in California
Honda will enter the market of hydrogen cars in 2016 Followed in
2017 by Nissan/Daimler/Ford (alliance) But the cars will be sold at
a loss, only by 2025 the hydrogen cars will be commercially viable
for mass use By 2020 (Tokyo Olympics) Toyota aims to launch the
next generation at a much lower cost (1/3 -1/4) thanks to re-
engineering the fuel cell and reducing drastically the use of
expensive precious metals) 29
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Self-driving cars Combination of radars, (infrared) cameras,
sensors and powerful, high-speed (real time) computers, big data
Together with Adaptive cruise control Advanced mapping Collision
avoidance systems automatic steering (lane changing)
Vehicle-to-vehicle communication by wireless transponders Strong
back-up systems to guarantee safety Technological disruption, new
paradigm Cars belong to the evolution of the internet of things:
highly sophisticated autonomous and connected mobile computers
Value added will shift to companies developing software and
electronic content (like in the mobile phone business) the one that
controls the brain (the operating system) will also control the
value So carmakers and suppliers will have to invest heavily in
building their software capability, but also standalone software
companies will enter the sector Tipping point is near as long as
the cars are designed to assist the driver For cars without
steering wheel and pedals, there are still many roadblocks: legal,
infrastructure, technology, price 30
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Roadmap for self-driving cars 2016: proliferation of driver
assistance technology 2020: self-driving on highways: accelerating,
braking and changing lanes 2025: computer-controlled driving (with
the driver able to take control and override autonomous functions)
?: fully driverless cars 31
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Platform strategy Move to megaplatforms Enormous economies of
scale Lower development costs Faster times to market Ability to
build multiple cars on one line VW has a substantial head start by
shifting from integral to modular platforms (toolkits) which
enables to vary the basic dimensions of a car built off a specific
platform The MQB platform will underpin 6m cars and 40 models with
different wheelbases, track widths, wheel sizes and seat positions
VW invests 50 bn in development costs and capital expenditure to
launch MQB But so far MQB hasnt delivered the expected savings VW
has been hoping for Renault-Nissan is closest to achieving VWs
scale: by 2020 it will have 70% of its cars built on 3 platforms
(with 3,5m cars built on the CMF B (the common module family
including the Clio PSA: from 7 to 2 in 2022. Its new Efficient
Modular Platform EMP2 will built 11 models and 1,5m cars by 2018
GM: from 14 in 2015 to 4 in 2025 32
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Environment Fiat and BMW (currently at 133g) will not hit the
new CO2 cap until 2022 and 2024 respectively (facing a fine of 95
EUR for every extra gram that each new car emits) Also Suzuki,
Hyundai, Mazda and Honda risk to miss the targets CO2-emissions
from new cars per country Germany: 136 (highest after Poland 138)
Lowest: Netherlands: 109, Greece, 112 Resulting from diffences in
car tax systems US: near doubling fuel efficiency from 27,5 miles
per gallon in 2012 to 54,5 mpg in 2025 average fuel 33
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Regulation European Commission sent formal charge sheets to
Daimler, Volvo, MAN, CNH Industrial for alleged price-fixing
(during 14 years they set up a cartel to agree on the timing and
price increases for the introduction of new emission technologies)
14 carmakers are fined $420 (2% of revenue) in India for stiffling
competition in the market for spare parts: arbitrary and high
prices for their spare parts and distorting fair competition by
using their dominant position to protect their market for repair
services 34
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Audi ($41m.) and Chrysler have been found guilty for vertical
infractions on the Chinese Anti-Monopoly law: fixing the retail
prices charged by their downstream dealers for spare parts and
repair services Also BMW and Mercedes are under investigation, they
responded with huge price cuts on their components Also 12 Japanese
car parts suppliers were accused and fined ($202m, the biggest
anti-trust fine ever in China) for horizontal infractions
(collusion between competitors to set pricing levels for their
components) 35
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Miscellaneous Former Porsche CEO Wiedeking(together with CFO
Hrter) must stand trial over the companys failed bid to use options
to acquire VW (2008) Porsche secretly began acquiring options to
buy VW shares in 2008 but dismissed speculation that its ambition
was to acquire a 75% stake (=full control) Porsche finally acquired
74%, as a result there was a lack of VW shares on the market When
Porsches options position was revealed in October 2008, VWs stock
surged to record highs as short sellers raced to buy shares to
repay their borrowed shares (as they were betting that VWs share
would drop) Hedge funds have sued Porsche for more than 5bn.
Claiming that Porsche didnt disclose the ownership of the package
(or about its accumulation of options on VW shares (market
manipulation) Porsches failed takeover attempt left it with a big
debt pile that pushed it to the brink of bankruptcy 36
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GM has issued 75 recalls covering 30m vehicles in 2014 with
defects of various kinds (it recorded $2,5 bn. Charges in the first
two quarters) Defective ignition switches have been linked to 30
deaths Defective airbags (4 fatalities) made by Takata sparks
recall of 17m vehicles across the world 37
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VW plant in Chattanooga established a Community Organization
Engagement granting eligible labour groups three levels of access
and dialogue with management (tresholds 15, 30 and 45%) This will
give the UAW access to the company But no mentioning of the right
to collective bargaining Recently VW recognized a second yellow
union 38
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Thank you for your attention! Self driving carSelf-driving car
With steering wheel and pedalswithout steering wheel and pedals
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