Author/s: Book title, edition number – edit on master slide The Middle East since the Cold War – Week 6

Author/s: Book title, edition number – edit on master slide

The Middle East since the Cold War – Week 6


1987 Palestinian Intifada begins

1988 Iran-Iraq War ends

1990 Cold War ends

Iraq Invades Kuwait

1991 Gulf War

Timeline -1






1991 Madrid Conference initiates Arab-Israeli peace process

1993-1995 Oslo Peace Process

1995 Assassination of Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin

1999 Death of King Hussein of Jordan ( succeeded by Abdullah II)

2000 Death of Syrian President Hafiz al-Assad ( succeeded by Bashar al-Assad)

Camp David summit, the failure of which marks end of peace process.

Timeline – 2


Yitzar Rabin,Bill Clinton, and Yasser Arafat at the Oslo Accords signing ceremony on 13 September 1993


Rabin's death ends the momentum towards peace


2001 9/11 terrorist bombings of US targets in New York and Washington

US initiates attack on Afghanistan

2002 US President Bush delivers ‘axis of evil’ speech.

2003 US led war on Iraq begins

‘Roadmap’ launched for an Israel-Palestine settlement

2004 Death of Yasser Arafat

Timeline – 3






2005 Assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri

2006 Hamas wins in Palestinian elections

Israel-Hezbollah War in Lebanon

2007 Annapolis Conferece, Maryland

2010 Start of ‘ Arab Spring’

2011 Regime change in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Yemen.

Timeline-4




• After end of Cold War, Middle East retains centrality.

• “Exceptionalism”: Perception that the Middle East is immune to changes seen elsewhere

• The Arab Spring: a new wave of democratization? Domestic & international consequences.

• Factors of change (youth, communications, Islamic forces), factors of continuity (petro-politics).

Middle East Exceptionalism?

Applicability of Applicability of “End of History” “End of History” and “Clash of Civilizations”and “Clash of Civilizations” ? ?

“ What we may be witnessing is not just the end of

the Cold War, or the passing of a particular period of

post-war history, but the end of history as such: that

is, the end point of mankind's ideological evolution

and the universalization of Western liberal

democracy as the final form of human government.”

The End of History

“…The fundamental source of conflict in this new world will not

be primarily ideological or primarily economic. The great

divisions among humankind and the dominating source of

conflict will be cultural. Nation states will remain the most

powerful actors in world affairs, but the principal conflicts of

global politics will occur between nations and groups of

different civilizations. The clash of civilizations will dominate

global politics. The fault lines between civilizations will be the

battle lines of the future.” The Clash of Civilizations


Intermestics as an alternative conceptual lense

• Interconnectedness of international and domestic politics.

• Reflection of creeping globalization, characterized by the retreat of exclusive state sovereignty, and the rise of the intensity of social interconnectedness and speedy circulation of ideas, but without wiping out the impact of local features.

• Major characteristics – from oil wealth and its impact, to religio-politics and its international spillover – illustrate the dominance of intermestics.


Oil: Assets and Disadvantages



Oil: Assets and Disadvantages

• Middle East and North Africa play a central role in global oil supplies.

• For the region, however, oil is a mixed blessing:

- Positive: Significant income, political influence

- Negative: market fluctuations, undiversified economies, laziness and effortless spending (i.e.rentier economies).



• Arab-Israeli Conflict: Basis of Middle East’s militarization and rise of so-called “national security states”.

• High levels of military spending , e.g. Saudi Arabia.

• Border disputes: impact almost every country in the region.

• Proliferation pressure.

Geopolitical Conflicts










• Demographics: On average x3 population increase in past 50 years potential social upheavals and interstate spillover.

• Age of populations: the “Youthening” dilemma.

• Failure to attract foreign resources through trade or investment.

• “Low politics” basis of Arab Spring.

Socio-economic Deficits










• Politicization of religion throughout the Middle East.

• Even officially secular countries (Turkey) impacted by religio-politics.

• Religion as a symbol of the defence of threatened identity.

• Socio-economic ills and threats to identity help the rise of Islamic opposition, furthered by legitimacy deficit of regimes.

• International spill-over: 9/11 and other examples.

Religio-Politics


• Opportunity for Islamists to Rule towards an Islamist Spring?

• Political instability and social tension bound to persist.

• Pattern of regional leaderships: what role for Turkey ?

• External factors ( Globalization, the US, Russia, etc.) impact domestic and international relations.

Arab Spring: Regional Repercussions

Thanks

Documents

Author/s: Book title, edition number – edit on master slide The Middle East since the Cold War – Week 6