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Author: Takashi OTSUKI (Mr.), Researcher, APERC
Presenter: Gigih Udi ATMO (Dr.), Senior Researcher, APERC
2
• Introduction / project overview Nuclear power in the APEC region
• Future scenarios and analysis Economic modelling and analysis through 2040 We discuss three cases: the BAU, High-nuclear and Low-nuclear scenarios
• Conclusion
Contents
3
27%41%
26%
5%
1990
11 826TWh
40%
25%
26%
9%
2000
15 426TWh
40%
25%
26%
9%
2000
15 426TWh
Other APEC
(22%)
United States
(18%)
China
(23%)
Rest of the
world
(37%) 2013
23 307TWh
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC): 21 economies, accounting for 60% of global generation
Share of APEC in global generation
APEC Economies (total 21) Australia Brunei Darussalam
Canada Chile
China Hong Kong, China
Indonesia Japan
Republic of Korea Malaysia
Mexico New Zealand
Papua New Guinea Peru
Philippines Russia
Singapore Chinese Taipei
Thailand United States
Viet Nam
Fossil vs non-fossil in APEC
Sources: IEA statistics, APEC Energy Working Group.
63% in global generation
in 2013
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
1990 2013
TWh
Non-fossil
Fossil
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
1990 2013
TWh
Other renewables
Hydro
Nuclear
Oil
Gas
Coal
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
1990 2013
TWh
Other renewables
Hydro
Nuclear
Oil
Gas
Coal
Fossil fuels dominate the power mix
4
0011112222234444566778
101515
1922
253636
4258
99
BelarusUAE
ArmeniaIran
NetherlandsSlovenia
BrazilBulgariaMexico
RomaniaSouth Africa
ArgentinaFinland
HungaryPakistanSlovakia
SwitzerlandCzech
Chinese TaipeiBelgium
SpainGermanySwedenUkraine
UKCanada
IndiaKoreaRussiaChinaJapan
FranceUS
1
1. We refer to IAEA PRIS database. We adjusted data in several economies; for example, in Japan, Ikata unit 1 is excluded from the figure in operation, and the number of reactors under construction is revised from 2 to 3.
Number of reactors in operation (as of Nov 2016)
1. Introduction / project overview
Major nuclear utilizing/expanding economies are in APEC
Under construction (as of Nov 2016)
24
1
11
32
2
2
53
720
31
4
APEC: 265 World: 449
APEC: 39 World: 61
5
1. Introduction / project overview
However, future direction varies by economy and uncertainties exist
Nuclear plans and targets, selected economies
China Target by 2020: 58GW in operation and 30GW under construction
Japan Amended reactor regulation acts to limit lifetime of reactors, yet the government aims for a share of 20-22% in generation by FY2030.
Korea1 Addition of 4 reactors which are currently under construction (Shin-Kori 4&5, Shin-Wolseong 1&2) and retirement of 12 reactors by 2040, as outlined in the 8th Basic Plan for Long-Term Electricity Supply published by MOTIE.
Chinese Taipei Nuclear phase out policy by 2025
Russia Rosatom plans to expand nuclear mainly in the west part of Russia
United States NRC is preparing guidance for an 80-year lifetime (Subsequent License Renewal)
“Newcomers” Thailand: PDP2015 plans to install 2GW by 2036. Viet Nam: Halt to Ninh Thuan project.
1. This study was conducted in 2017 before the announcement of the 8th Basic Plan for Long-Term Electricity Supply.
6
• Introduction / project overview
• Future scenarios and analysis Economic modelling and analysis toward 2040 We discuss three cases: the BAU, High-nuclear and Low-nuclear scenarios
• Conclusion
Contents
7
• Business-As-Usual (BAU) Current policy exists over the projection period (2013-2040). Recent nuclear construction/retirement trends considered. Proposed projects are not included in most of the economies.
• High-nuclear (High) Proposed projects are included in addition to BAU projects driven by energy security, environmental and economic reasons. License extensions applied to most of the existing reactors.
• Low-nuclear (Low) Slow down of nuclear developments and accelerated retirements of existing reactors due to various concerns, including safety and waste management.
2. Scenario analysis
Three scenarios to discuss the future of nuclear in Asia-Pacific
0
100
200
300
400
500
1990
1995
2000
2005
2013
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
HighLowBAU
GWNuclear capacity in APEC [GW]
→Scenario
High 477GW
BAU 330GW
Low 214GW
Source: APERC
8
Current status (as of 1st Nov 2016)
• 36 reactors in operation
• 20 reactors under construction
• Target: 58GW in operation and 30GW under construction by 2020 (“Energy Development Strategy Action Plan (2014-2020)” and The 13th Five-Year Plan)
China – projected to be the largest nuclear economy in APEC
Sources: IAEA, State Council.
2020 operation target (58GW)
New additions after 2020
High Achieved 5-6 reactors/year (projected trend in the late 2010s continues)
BAU Achieved 3-4 reactors/year (The annual average number of reactors installed in 2012-2016 Sep.: 4 reactors/year)
Low Achieved 1-3 reactors/year
Scenario assumptions
0
50
100
150
200
1990
1995
2000
2005
2013
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
High
Low
BAU
GW
→Scenario
IEA WEO2016 NPS: 155GW CPS: 136GW
127GW
176GW
Example of economy
assumption
9
Current status (as of 1st Nov 2016)
• 42 reactors in operation
• 3 reactors under construction (Shimane-3, Oma-1, and Higashidori-1)
• Lifetime: 40 years, and an extension of maximum 20 years allowed under nuclear reactor regulation act
• Strategic Energy Plan (published in April 2014): “Dependency on nuclear power generation will be lowered to the extent possible”
Japan – license expiration of existing reactors has significant impacts
Sources: OCCTO and METI.
Lifetime of existing reactors New reactor additions
High 60 years 3 units currently under construction
BAU 40 years (except for the reactors approved/examined for extension)
3 units currently under construction
Low Same as BAU No new reactors
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1990
1995
2000
2005
2013
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
High
Low
BAU
GW
→Scenario
Scenario assumptions
Example of economy
assumption
10
21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
16 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 19 20 20 20
16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16
16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 15 16
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 19 19 20 20 20 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 11 11 16 16 16 16 16 16 5 5 5 5 5 5 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 20 20 20 20 20 20 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 5 5 5 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
16 18 18 18 18 18 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 16 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
9 9 9 9 9 11 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 5 5
2. Scenario analysis
China’s increasing presence in APEC nuclear generation
Note: Nuclear capacity in each economy is rounded. The number of block does not necessarily means the exact installed capacity. Source: APERC.
2013 Low BAU High 2040
APEC nuclear capacity [GW]
US
Japan China
1GW
(rounded)
21 VietNam
20 US
19 Thailand
18 ChineseTaipei
16 Russia
15 Philippines
11 Mexico
10 Malaysia
9 Korea
8 Japan
7 Indonesia
5 China
3 Canada
Russia Korea
Canada
11
Source: APERC.
Electricity supply model structure
• Future nuclear capacity is assumed by the scenario (not based on optimization)
• The model determines fossil fuel-fired capacity and operation of all technologies, considering policy directions
2. Scenario analysis
APERC uses a long-term power supply model based on cost-optimization
Load curves
Prices and costs• Energy and CO2 prices
• Initial/O&M costs
Existing capacity
Operational info.• Plant availability
• Capacity credit
• Efficiencies
• Minimum output level
• Reserve margin target
Policy information• Power development
plans/policies
• Renewables/nuclear
policies
Electricity
Supply
Model
Capacity additions
Investment needs
Generation by
plant type
Plant dispatch and
capacity factor
Fuel consumption
Emissions and
emission intensity
Total and average
power generation costs
‘Least cost’ approachCapacity addition and generation volume is
determined based on costs (initial, O&M,
fuel and carbon costs) under various
technical and political constraints.
Yearly demandDemand
modelsGeneration • Nuclear • Coal-fired (sub-critical) • Coal-fired (super / ultra-
super critical) • Gas turbine • Gas combined cycle • Oil-fired • Solar PV & solar thermal • Wind (onshore, offshore) • Geothermal • Biomass and others
Storage • Pumped hydro • Battery
Modelled technologies
12
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040
TWh
Southeast Asia
Oceania
Other Americas
Other Northeast Asia
Russia
United States
China
→ Projection
1 Source: APERC (2016) “APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 6th Edition”
Assumed electricity demand, regional grouping1
• Electricity demand in APEC grows by 70% over the outlook period
• China and Southeast Asian economies more than double their demand
2. Scenario analysis
China and Southeast Asian economies drive demand growth
China
Southeast Asia economies
13
1 The Outlook energy price assumptions are based on IEEJ’s 2015 AWEO reference case and converted to USD 2012 PPP using World Bank PPP conversion factors; bbl = barrels; and Mmbtu = million British thermal units.
2 Sources are as follows: EIA for US and IEA WEIO for other economies.
2. Scenario analysis
Cost assumptions
Fossil fuel prices1 Capital costs of nuclear plant, selected region2
2013 2020 2030 2040
Crude oil [USD/bbl]
108 73 97 121
Natural gas in Japan [USD/Mmbtu]
15.9 10.4 12.4 13.7
Natural gas in the US [USD/Mmbtu]
3.6 4.4 5.4 6.6
Steam coal [USD/tonne]
110 86 103 128
Unit: USD/kW 2013-2040
China 2000
Japan 3500
Southeast Asia 2000
Russia 3500
US 5400
14
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040
Other renewablesHydroOilGasCoalNuclear
TWh
Coal
Nuclear
Gas
Hydro
Other renewables
Source: APERC.
APEC electricity generation, BAU
2. Scenario analysis
Fossil fuels dominate in the BAU and even in High-nuclear, but …
• Fossil fuels dominate in the BAU scenario, and even in the High nuclear scenario, although accelerated nuclear development contributes to reducing fossil fuel generation.
6%
42%
28%
12%
12%
Coal
Nuclear
Gas
14%
38%24%
12%
12%
Coal
Nuclear
Gas10%
41%
25%
12%
12%
Coal
Nuclear
Gas
Hydro
Other renewables
→BAU scenario
Generation share, 2040
BAU
High
Low
14%
10%
6%
15
85%
90%
95%
100%
1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040
High
Low
BAU4
6
8
10
12
2013 2020 2030 2040
High
Low
BAU
1 Emissions from electricity generation in APEC
Source: APERC.
APEC Annual emissions1
2. Scenario analysis
… but, nuclear contributes to APEC from the “3E” perspective
APEC Energy self-sufficiency rate APEC Average cost, 2040
USD/MWh GtCO2
Emissions in 2040 (changes from the BAU)
Low: +5% High: -7%
High nuclear
BAU
Low nuclear
High
BAU
Low
High BAU
Low
0
20
40
60
80
100
Low BAU High
USD/MWh
16
Source: APERC.
Generation cost changes relative to BAU, 2040, selected economies
• In general, larger impacts on “energy importing” economies, such as Japan and Korea (-4% and -6% in High, respectively)
• Changes in China and US are relatively small
Economic impacts vary by economy, reflecting cost-competitiveness of the technology
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Low
BA
U
Hig
h
China
Japan
Korea
US
Cost saving in the High scenario from BAUJapan: 4%Korea: 6%
17
1 LWR=Light Water Reactors. APERC also developed another model for heavy water reactors.
Source: World Information Service on Energy and APERC,
2. Scenario analysis
A sub-model to estimate uranium consumption and spent fuel
Front-end model (LWR1 model as an example)
Nuclear power plant
Fuel fabrication plant
Enrichment plant
Conversion plant
Uranium Mill
Uranium Mine
UO2
Electricity
UF6 (enriched)
UF6 (natural)
U3O8
Uranium ore
• Fuel burnup: 45MWd/tU (BWR/PWR/ABWR/APWR), 15MWd/tU (LWGR)• Efficiency: 34.5% (BWR/PWR/ABWR/APWR), 33.3% (LWGR)
• Losses: 1%
• Product assay: 4wt-% U235
(BWR/PWR/ABWR/APWR), 2.4% (LWGR)• Tail assay: 0.3wt-% U235 (all LWR reactors)
• Losses: 0.5%
18
0
50
100
150
200
2013 2020 2030 2040
BAU
Low
High
thousand-tU
150
180
130
1 This estimation assumes a once-through fuel cycle for all economies.
Source: APERC.
Spent fuel (cumulative from 2013, APEC)1
• Estimated amount of spent fuel reaches 130-179 thousand tons of Uranium; even Low-nuclear scenario reaches 70% of the level in High scenario
• Economies need to construct sufficient intermediate storage and final disposal facilities
2. Scenario analysis
Waste management: headache for nuclear utilizing economies
(Reference: the capacity of Onkalo is 9 thousand t-U)
19
• This study examined the impacts of three nuclear scenarios on APEC’s generation mix
• Future nuclear development in the APEC region is driven mainly by China, increasing its presence in nuclear generation in Asia-Pacific
• Nuclear power contributes to the APEC region from the “3E” perspective, especially in terms of Environment
• Despite the capacity growth in the BAU, the share of nuclear remains around the current level due to increasing demand; further accelerated installation and license extension are important to increase the share
• A large amount of spent fuel is estimated even in the Low Scenario. Economies need to implement policies to construct sufficient facilities for storage and/or disposal
Conclusion
http://aperc.ieej.or.jp/
Thank you for your kind attention! Website link to the full report: http://aperc.ieej.or.jp/file/2017/8/30/APERC_Nuclear_Power_AsiaPacific_Final.pdf