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ITALY: AN OVERVIEW OF DEMOGRAPHY AND ECONOMY. Author: Gemma Asero Annual meeting AITC September 4th and 5th 2009 Florence, Italy. WHY. The purpose of this work is to offer an overview on Italian economy and demography since the end of Nineties to 2009. HOW. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
1
Author: Gemma Asero
Annual meeting AITC September 4th and 5th 2009 Florence, Italy
ITALY:AN OVERVIEW OF
DEMOGRAPHY AND ECONOMY
WHY
The purpose of this work is to offer an overview on Italian
economy and demography since the end of Nineties to 2009.
2
HOWUsing ISTAT, EUROSTAT and IMF data
collections;Analyzing data, extracted on June 2009,
both over time and by making a comparison between Italy and Europe and also between Italy and the other six world’s advanced economies (G7 countries);
Looking at some forecast and estimate for 2010.
3
POPULATION
The Italian demographic
growth has assured by a positive
migratory balance with
abroad
In 2008, Italian population,
live births and deaths
increased respect to 2007
1959: 50 million inhabitants
Natural growth and migratory component
2008: 60 million inhabitants
Resident population on 31° December 2008 and increase from 2007 by geographical areas
-Istat-
5
Population on31st December 2008
(millions)
Increase from31st
December2007
Male Female Total %Resident
Foreigners(%)
AbsoluteValues
%
North-west 7 741 251 8 176 125 15 917 376 26.5 8.6 137 903 0.9
North-east 5 599 221 5 873 899 11 473 120 19.1 9.0 135 650 1.2
Centre 5 686 716 6 111 612 11 798 328 19.6 8.0 122 750 1.0
South 6 872 112 7 275 332 14 147 444 23.6 2.5 15 975 0.1
Islands 3 253 123 3 455 677 6 788 000 11.2 2.2 13 500 0.2
Italy 29 152 423 30 892 645 60 045 068 100.0 6.5 425 778 0.7
Demographic indicators of national demographic balance, Italy, 2008 -Istat-
6
DemographicIndicators Male Female Total
Resident population on 1st January (million)28 949
74730 669
54359 619
290
Live births (1 000) 296 138 280 521 576 659
Deaths (1 000) 285 483 299 643 585 126
Natural increase (1 000) 10 655 -19 122 -8 467
Life expectancy at birth (years) 79 84 81
Immigration from other Italian municipalities (1 000) 740 480 725 160 1 465 640
Immigration from other Countries (1 000) 29 305 17 061 46 366
Emigration to other Municipalities (1 000) 731 267 719 085 1 450 352
Emigration to other Countries (1 000) 43 743 37 204 80 947
Net migration + balance for other reasons (1 000) 192 021 242 224 434 245
Resident population in Household on 31st December (1 000)29 031
97330 689
95359 721
926
Resident population in Community on 31st Dec. (1 000) 120 450 202 692 323 142
Number of Households (1 000) : :24 641
200
Number of Communities (1 000) : : 28 217
Average number of household members (%) : : 2.4
GDP AND EXPENDITURE
ON GDP
Private final consumption
expenditure > the government one.
Both increased in the first quarter
of 2009
In 2008, tertiary sector was the most important one in the origin
of Italian GDP
In 2009, decrease of real
GDP growth rate by 4.4 but forecasts for 2010 show the possibility
a fair recover will take place
GDP per capita at current market prices in Purchasing Power Standards (PPS),2008 (EU-27=100) -Eurostat-
8
0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0
EU-27
Belgium
Bulgaria
Czech Rep.
Denmark
Germany
Estonia
Ireland
Greece
Spain
France
ITALY
Cyprus
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Hungary
Malta
Netherlands
Austria
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovenia
Slovakia
Finland
Sw eden
Uk
Croatia
FYR Mk
Turkey
Iceland
Norw ay
Sw itzerland (1)
United States
Japan
Origin GDP, Italy, 2008 (%) -Eurostat-
9
Agriculture2%
Industry20%
Construction6%
Trade22%
Business29%
Other services21%
Gross value added at basic prices, EU-27, 2008 (% share of total gross values added)
-Eurostat-
10
Construction6%
Trade, transport and communication services
25%
Business activities and financial services
25%
Other services21%
Industry, excluding Energy21%
Agriculture2%
Private final consumption expenditure at current prices, quarterly data (Million EUR) -Eurostat-
11
2007 2008 2009
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
EU-27 1 740 208 1 762 009 1 783 309 1 796 720 1 794 649 1 796 943 1 815 043 1 768 326 1 711 487
Italy 224 430 225 980 227 919 229 333 230 989 232 581 234 688 230 629 225 869
U.S.A. 1 816 897 1 790 947 1 777 115 1 707 286 1 669 722 1 622 392 1 688 289 1 883 137 1 906 996
Japan 463 709 446 643 447 062 444 038 469 071 449 142 454 773 571 819 583 545
Government final consumption expenditure at current prices, quarterly data (Million EUR) -Eurostat-
12
2007 2008 2009
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
EU-27 621 499 625 385 631 376 636 924 637 758 649 139 653 029 651 995 644 666
Italy 74 678 75 634 75 662 78 393 76 875 82 121 79 088 80 027 81 826
U.S.A. 410 346 407 147 406 609 391 205 388 004 381 017 405 282 455 330 458 055
Japan 145 604 141 989 142 241 142 986 148 939 143 253 145 600 186 395 194 448
PUBLIC FINANCE
In 2008, Italy was
at no. 24 in world rankings according to General Government
Balance. In 2009 and in 2010,
public balance more in deficit than
the EU-27 and EA-16
Italy has one of the highest
debt levels in the Euro area and it seems
they will increase more in next 2 years,
although Italy is trying to carry out
a fiscal strengthening
In 2008, Italian public
finances in dire straits:
public deficit = 2.7 % of GDP and
debt = 105.8 % of GDP
General government gross debt, G7 countries, 1997-2010 (% of GDP) -Eurostat-
14
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Canada France Germany ITALY Japan United Kingdom United States
General government balance G7 countries, 2000-2010 (% of GDP) -Eurostat-
15
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Canada France Germany ITALY Japan United Kingdom United States
PRICES ANDFINANCIAL INDICATORS
Annual percentage change average
consumer prices: highest values
among the European G7 countries
Inflation rate:similar trend to the
EU average (’97-’08). Slowdown in
Italian inflation reflected decrease of national prices
level
Annual average long term interest rates
similar to the Euro area ones (+ 0.2%), slightly lower
than the US ones. Japan, the lowest ones
Annual change on consumer prices index, Italy, January 2008-June 2009 (%) -Istat-
17
3.0 3.0 2.9
3.3 3.33.6
3.84.1 4.1
3.83.5
2.7
2.2
1.6
1.2 1.20.9
0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
gen-08
feb-08
mar-08
apr-08
mag-08
giu-08
lug-08
ago-08
set-08
ott-08
nov-08
dic-08
gen-09
feb-09
mar-09
apr-09
mag-09
giu-09
18
HICP all-items, annual average inflation rates, 1997-2008 (%) Part I-Eurostat-
1997 1998 1999 2000200
1200
2200
3200
4200
5200
62007
2 008
EU-27 1.7 1.3 1.2 1.9 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.3 3.7
Euro area 1.6 1.1 1.1 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.1 3.3
Belgium 1.5 0.9 1.1 2.7 2.4 1.6 1.5 1.9 2.5 2.3 1.8 4.5
Bulgaria : 18.7 2.6 10.3 7.4 5.8 2.3 6.1 6.0 7.4 7.6 12.0
Czech Republic 8.0 9.7 1.8 3.9 4.5 1.4 -0.1 2.6 1.6 2.1 3.0 6.3
Denmark 2.0 1.3 2.1 2.7 2.3 2.4 2.0 0.9 1.7 1.9 1.7 3.6
Germany 1.5 0.6 0.6 1.4 1.9 1.4 1.0 1.8 1.9 1.8 2.3 2.8
Estonia 9.3 8.8 3.1 3.9 5.6 3.6 1.4 3.0 4.1 4.4 6.7 10.6
Ireland 1.3 2.1 2.5 5.3 4.0 4.7 4.0 2.3 2.2 2.7 2.9 3.1
Greece 5.4 4.5 2.1 2.9 3.7 3.9 3.4 3.0 3.5 3.3 3.0 4.2
Spain 1.9 1.8 2.2 3.5 2.8 3.6 3.1 3.1 3.4 3.6 2.8 4.1
France 1.3 0.7 0.6 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.3 1.9 1.9 1.6 3.2
Italy 1.9 2.0 1.7 2.6 2.3 2.6 2.8 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.0 3.5
Cyprus 3.3 2.3 1.1 4.9 2.0 2.8 4.0 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.2 4.4
Latvia 8.1 4.3 2.1 2.6 2.5 2.0 2.9 6.2 6.9 6.6 10.1 15.3
Lithuania 10.3 5.4 1.5 1.1 1.6 0.3 -1.1 1.2 2.7 3.8 5.8 11.1
Luxembourg 1.4 1.0 1.0 3.8 2.4 2.1 2.5 3.2 3.8 3.0 2.7 4.1
Hungary 18.5 14.2 10.0 10.0 9.1 5.2 4.7 6.8 3.5 4.0 7.9 6.0
19
HICP all-items, annual average inflation rates, 1997-2008 (%) Part II-Eurostat-
1997199
81999 2000
2001
2002200
3200
4200
5200
6200
72
008
Italy 1.9 2.0 1.7 2.6 2.3 2.6 2.8 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.0 3.5
Malta 3.9 3.7 2.3 3.0 2.5 2.6 1.9 2.7 2.5 2.6 0.7 4.7
Netherlands 1.9 1.8 2.0 2.3 5.1 3.9 2.2 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.6 2.2
Austria 1.2 0.8 0.5 2.0 2.3 1.7 1.3 2.0 2.1 1.7 2.2 3.2
Poland 15.0 11.8 7.2 10.1 5.3 1.9 0.7 3.6 2.2 1.3 2.6 4.2
Portugal 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.8 4.4 3.7 3.3 2.5 2.1 3.0 2.4 2.7
Romania 154.8 59.1 45.8 45.7 34.5 22.5 15.3 11.9 9.1 6.6 4.9 7.9
Slovenia 8.3 7.9 6.1 8.9 8.6 7.5 5.7 3.7 2.5 2.5 3.8 5.5
Slovakia 6.0 6.7 10.4 12.2 7.2 3.5 8.4 7.5 2.8 4.3 1.9 3.9
Finland 1.2 1.3 1.3 2.9 2.7 2.0 1.3 0.1 0.8 1.3 1.6 3.9
Sweden 1.8 1.0 0.5 1.3 2.7 1.9 2.3 1.0 0.8 1.5 1.7 3.3
United Kingdom
1.8 1.6 1.3 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.3 2.1 2.3 2.3 3.6
Turkey 85.6 82.1 61.4 53.2 56.8 47.0 25.3 10.1 8.1 9.3 8.8 10.4
Iceland 1.8 1.3 2.1 4.4 6.6 5.3 1.4 2.3 1.4 4.6 3.6 12.8
Norway 2.6 2.0 2.1 3.0 2.7 0.8 2.0 0.6 1.5 2.5 0.7 3.4
Switzerland : : : : : : : : : 1.0 0.8 2.3
Japan 1.8 0.6 -0.3 -0.7 -0.7 -0.9 -0.3 0.0 -0.3 0.3 0.0 3.8
United States2.3 1.6 2.2 3.4 2.8 1.6 2.3 2.7 3.4 3.2 2.8 1.4
Annual average rate of change in Harmonized Indices of Consumer Prices (HICPs), G7 countries and EU-27, 1998-2010 (%)
-IMF, Eurostat-
20
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Canada 1.0 1.7 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.7 1.8 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.4 0.0 0.5
France 0.7 0.6 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.3 1.9 1.9 1.6 3.2 0.5 1.0
Germany 0.6 0.6 1.4 1.9 1.4 1.0 1.8 1.9 1.8 2.3 2.8 0.1 -0.4
Italy 2.0 1.7 2.6 2.3 2.6 2.8 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.0 3.5 0.7 0.6
Japan 0.6 -0.3 -0.8 -0.7 -0.9 -0.3 0.0 -0.3 0.3 0.0 1.4 -1.0 -0.6
United Kingdom 1.6 1.3 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.3 2.0 2.3 2.3 3.6 1.5 0.8
United States 1.5 2.2 3.4 2.8 1.6 2.3 2.7 3.4 3.2 2.9 3.8 -0.9 -0.1
EU-27 1.3 1.2 1.9 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.3 3.7 : :
EXTERNALTRADE
Deficit both in the average value of goods imported from EU countries
and from extra-EU area
> exports from the extra-EU area
(+ 2.3 %)
and < from the EU-area countries
(-2.4 %)
1997-2008: external trade,
generalized increase of imports and exports
May’08-’09:Total foreign
trade, imports more affected by
reduction of Italian commercial
flows. Opposite in trade with
EU countries
Italian exports, imports and balances trade with UE and in total, May 2009 -Istat-
22
Values in million of Euros Percentage changes (%)
May 2009 Jan-May '09May '09/May '08
Jan-May '09/Jan-May '08
Foreign trade with EU countries
Exports(FOB values)
13 785 67 727 -31.7 -27.5
Imports(CIF values)
13 154 67 168 -24.6 -24.6
Balance trade 631 559
Total foreign trade
Exports(FOB values)
24 132 117 105 -27.0 -24.9
Imports(CIF values)
22 945 120 602 -30.8 -25.6
Balance trade 1 187 -3 497
Development of external trade, Italy ( thousands EUR)-Eurostat-
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Imports Exports Balance
Trade of Italy with EU-27 and external to EU-27 (%) -Eurostat-
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
In EU-27
Share in total exp
60.4
62.5
64.0
61.5
61.0
60.9
62.4
61.9
61.2
61.2
60.1
58.5
Share in total imp
64.9
66.1
65.7
61.0
61.9
62.8
63.3
62.2
59.4
57.6
57.0
54.1
Ext EU-27
Share in total imp
35.1
33.9
34.3
39.0
38.1
37.2
36.7
37.8
40.6
42.4
43.0
45.9
Share in total exp
39.6
37.5
36.0
38.5
39.0
39.1
37.6
38.1
38.8
38.8
39.9
41.5
24
Current account transactions, Italy, 1997-2008 (1 000 million ECU/EUR)-Eurostat-
25
199
7199
8199
9200
0200
1200
2200
3200
4200
5200
6200
72008
Goods
Exports
210.3
216.5
221.5
260.9
273.6
267.6
263.6
283.3
299.4
332.8
366.4
370.6
Imports
168.9
184.6
199.4
250.5
256.2
253.5
253.7
274.5
298.9
343.0
363.5
370.7
Balance
41.4 31.9 22.1 10.4 17.4 14.0 9.9 8.9 0.5
-10.
2
2.9 0.0
Services
Exports
64.0 60.0 55.1 61.3 64.4 63.5 63.4 68.2 71.9 78.7 81.6 83.7
Imports
62.2 56.4 54.0 60.1 64.4 66.6 65.8 67.0 72.4 80.0 88.6 91.5
Balance
1.8 3.6 1.1 1.1 0.0 -3.1 -2.4 1.2 -0.5 -1.3 -7.0 -7.8
LABOUR MARKETIn 2008, unemployment grew once again involving men to a greater extent
In 2008, male’s population represented the most part
of the Italian active population although its weight on the
total decreased
Labour market conditions have worsened
as a result of the ongoing crisis: growth in employment in 2008
lower than growth in the number of unemployed
people
(-) self-employed workers
and (+) in employees ||
stability of standard employment in 2008
compared with 2007
Active population, Italy, 1998-2008-Eurostat-
27
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Total23 06
623 248 23 464 23 678 23 891
24 10
224 364 24 451
24 66
124 727 25 096
Male14 33
714 358 14 432 14 462 14 552
14 62
514 546 14 640
14 74
014 779 14 884
Female 8 729 8 889 9 032 9 216 9 339 9 476 9 818 9 811 9 921 9 948 10 212
Employment and unemployment rates by gender, Italy, 1997-2007 (%) -Eurostat-
28
30
40
50
60
70
80
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007MalesTotalFemales
0
4
8
12
16
20
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
FemalesTotalMales
Unemployment rate (% of total labour force) and employment rate (million of persons) G7 countries, 2008
-IMF-
29
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0
Canada
France
Germany
ITALY
Japan
United Kingdom
United States
0 50 000 100 000 150 000 200 000
Canada
France
Germany
ITALY
Japan
United Kingdom
United States
CONCLUSIONSThe worldwide economic slowdown is likely to hit
Italy hard. The recession is likely to extend through much of
2009, with a slow pick-up in 2010.Falling export growth and deteriorating financial
conditions have hit investment hard.Unemployment will rise significantly while
inflation will decline slowly. The authorities have rightly abstained from
significant discretionary fiscal expansion, while redirecting some spending within the existing budget envelope to better sustain domestic demand, notably private consumption.
The budget deficit will nevertheless increase substantially in 2009 as the recession hits revenues, and may increase somewhat further in 2010 despite the planned fiscal consolidation.
For any further inquiry,please do not hesitate to
contact
Gemma Asero
E-mail address: [email protected]: +39.333.1043568 (Italy) +352.621.594020(Luxembourg)
Thank you for your attention