Australias Pacific 100915013928 Phpapp01

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    REGIONAL WEATHER CHANGES OVER THE AUSTRALIAN REGIONS ASEARTHQUAKE PRECURSOR TO THE REGIONS SURROUNDING AUSTRALIA

    Abstract:My field of study and the area of interest are very narrowly confined to expose, how theweather patterns in Australia are systematically affected by geological process of the

    regions surrounding Australia. This same regional weather changes over Australia asprecursor to respective quakes in the regions surrounding the Indian continent. Theregional weather change precursor type is the one and only possible reliable predictionof any individual earthquakes. Natural hazards like Cyclones and earthquakes causedgreatest risks for causalities and costly damage worldwide. With the ongoing extensiveresearch in the formation of tropical cyclone and earthquake prediction, this article canbe treated as a wake up call to the scientists for finding scientific solutions to both. Theeffect is not simply due to chance but to expose the flawed understanding of thecyclone formations. Instead to suppress my idea at the rudimentary level, it is quiteobviously correct to analyze my findings and correlations scientifically.

    Keywords regional weather regional quake Australia Indonesia Southwest

    Pacific Islands.

    Introduction:

    There is currently no reliable way to predict the days or months when an earthquake willoccur in any specific location. For seismologists and scientists, the accurate, reliableprediction of individual earthquakes is a realistic scientific goal. However it is strange tobelieve that except precise time, it is quite scientifically possible to predict any damagingearthquakes before it strike. Each and every form of regional weather changes isfollowed by respective regional quakes in a repeatable manner and thehappenings of earthquakes in a given region have a recurrent pattern. There istherefore, something to be learnt from each such incident. Here the findings are

    observation based correlations. The onset of any regional weather changes set a timescale of advancing the regional quakes usually within 15 to 30 days. However, in a veryfew cases the time scales and magnitude do vary substantially as a consequenceof local site geology and other factors.

    According to the latest study, the relations that exist between the weather changes with

    the seismic events are practically recorded. The scientists did not detect any slow

    events during the typhoon-free season. Eleven of the 20 slow earthquakes coincided

    with typhoons Typhoons Trigger Slow Earthquakes, by Liu, C., Linde, A. T. & Sacks, I.

    S. Nature 459, 833-836 (2009).

    The prime purpose of this paper too is a serious attempt to identifying the natures validscientific earthquake precursors and expose, one of the most significant correlationsfound to exist between the all form of regional weather changes and with the subsequentrespective regional quakes. This article presents new scientifically reliable way offorecasting quakes. Regional weather changes are the first evidence of the anyforthcoming quakes in the respective region, however, this idea is not takenseriously by many seismologists because they were failed in their attempts. So farthe unanticipated natural events like weather changes now can tell the information aboutthe advancing quakes. Though I have my recordings around the globe but here I

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    summarizes for the regions surrounding Australia only. Several studies have been madeto predicting quakes reliably but unsuccessful so far, however I hope the weatherprecursor to quakes, will become a valuable seminal resource for understanding theoverall relations that exist between the weather changes and the quakes and helps tomitigate the effects of future great earthquakes and tsunami like nature's fury .Here I justreproduced what I just observed- the two related events happened at different times but

    one event is the byproduct of another. As I am not associated with any seismological laband I could not get necessary support to formulate my findings in a mathematical form,however Geophysicists and Seismologists can further develop these findings in a morerefined way using applicable mathematical formulations.

    Here I am recording the regional weather changes over the Australian regions and theresulting quakes around the Australian regions. The overall weather changes in Australiaare due to the geological process that surrounding the Australian regions. All of theprocesses that are related here started long before humans existed and will likely persistlong after we have gone.

    CORE CONCEPT: Weather Precursor to Quakes

    It is incorrect to assume that prediction of an individual earthquake is inherentlyimpossible since other previous works have been notoriously unsuccessful. The exactsuccess of predicting quakes reliably and accurately depends on the careful study of therespective over all regional weather changes. The causes of the geological processeswithin the earth, having its effects on the atmospheric anomalies indicate the necessaryto understand the interdependencies of weather and quakes. Earth quake is not a longterm process what the scientists now strongly believe but like weather changes itis only a short term process only few weeks to few months. For a specific quake,by means of task of identifying the regional weather changes, at this stage, it is quitepossible to estimate the location & size of an impending quakes based on the quantity of

    flood amount; cyclone strength and the unusual blistering heat but except the exactprecise time.

    Earthquakes are neither chaotic nor complex; it is happening quite in an orderly pattern,the sequences of regional earthquake after respective regional weather changesare repeatable. Like cyclones, the earthquakes occur in the same general patterns andoriginate year after year, principally in certain zones of the earth. Weather changes arethe integrated phenomena of earthquakes, particularly at the origin level. No doubt, allthe earthquakes have respective regional weather changes as very obvious andunambiguous precursors.

    Same Dynamic earth forces for all form of weather changes and the

    generation of seismic activity:

    The geological process within the earth is the direct and primary cause for all form ofweather changes - the formation and strengthening of powerful tropical cyclone; days ofheavy rain, massive flooding and mudslides; melting snow, heavy snowfall, fog andintense cold wave; high winds and thick plume of dust storm; blighting extreme heatwaves and forest fire; massive waves hit the shores and subsequent happenings of

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    quakes. Though the collective form of regional weather changes and the respectivequakes are seem to be separate phenomena, but origin wise (geological process withinthe earth) all are same. Here are the collections of my study - shows the significantcorrelation exist between the specific regional devastating weather changes andfollowed by respective regional destructive earthquakes.

    For instance, for any specific Cyclone, after its formation, the land fall may be, eventhousands of kilometers away from its origin but both the geological coordinates of theformation of cyclone and the focus of the resulting quakes have the closeness. Theresulting magnitude of the quakes will also depend on the severity of the weatherchanges; similar to the intensity of a cyclone how depending on the temperature ofocean surface.

    Tropical cyclones originate on the eastern side of Oceans but move west. Most of thesesystems form between 10 and 30 degrees away from the equator and 87% form nofarther away than 20 degrees of latitude north or south. Not only cyclones, majorearthquakes and volcanism also occur along these belts, indicating that and these threedisastrous activities are also often closely related and correspondingly responding the

    same dynamic earth forces.

    Methodology :

    The heat generating system is at the Ocean bed (Mechanical stress liberates heatenergy)

    Normally, when any material is subjected to enormous mechanical stress, it liberatesheat energy between the yield point and the tensile point.

    During the process of an earthquake, two blocks of the Earths crust slide past oneanother generating massive amounts of frictional heat. In fact, Kanamori & Brodsky(2001) describe earthquakes as thermal events more than seismic events because mostof the energy release during an earthquake goes into heat rather than seismic waves.

    The unobserved enormous amount of frictional heat energy generated and released

    during the entire process of a geological process within the earth (the giant plates

    equivalent to 100 km thickness when brush past each other or collide with each other)

    prior to an earthquake(s) could be responsible for the all form overall resulting weather

    changes and the Sea surface warming any particular region. This large amounts of

    generated heat within the earth, reaches on to the Ocean surface by means of

    convection, and thus,large amounts of steamy water rise off the ocean, forming an area

    of low pressure (tropical depression). For instance, the Island regions from PNG to

    Tasmania encircling the entire eastern side of Australia are the birth place for scores of

    tropical storms every year.

    It is from the observations ,that any form of atrocious weather changes happened in anyregion, strongly illustrates the powerful seismic forces at work underground and theprocess for an earth quake is over in that specific region and have to wait for the largescale cracking of ground!. The duration from tensile point to break point (quakes)

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    tectonic plates are normally 15 to 30 days in most cases ,sometimes with numerousfore-shocks.Results

    Three basic needs for predicting quakes - fixing of Location, Magnitude and Time:(Based on the table 5)

    i ) Location:The geological coordinates of the geological process within the earth responsible for theregional weather changes will very closely match with the location of the resultingspecific quakes in the same region. Mostly the geological coordinates of the resultingquakes will happen well within 5 degree latitude difference with that of the location ofcyclone formation, but in some cases it was up to 10.

    ii) Magnitude:Normally any destructive regional weather changes will always followed by destructivelarge-magnitude quakes. Based on my observations for any Cyclone with wind speed inthe category 3 and above in the Saffir-Simpson scale; week long incessant rain and

    huge flood associated with blazing heat, no doubt, the resulting quakes will have theMagnitude of 6 and above, however with numerous foreshocks.

    iii) TimeExcept with very few occasions, normally the time interval between the regional weatherchanges and the respective specific quakes will results within 10 to 15 days.

    By monitoring the regional weather precursors very carefully, scientists can determinewhat stage the earthquake is in and possible to predict when the earthquake will occur.Like seasonal weather changes, earthquakes are also having a cyclic pattern to occuryear after year except its magnitude, which will vary with the extremity of the regionalweather changes.

    ATMOSPHERIC ANOMALIES

    Nature has no boundary, what each and every country has! The geological process ofone nation will affect the weather of other neighboring nations and also sometimescause large scale death and destruction. With the precise nature of the interactionbetween the atmosphere and the Ocean is not fully understood, the weather changesare the interaction between the geological process within the earth and the atmosphereand in no way to claim that solar energy alone responsible for any form of weather

    changes. Without any geological process probably there would be no weather changeson the surface of the earth. Regional monsoon anomalies are due to effect of therespective geological process within the earth.

    List of Descripancies :-

    Theory on Cyclone formation contrary to basic physics :

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    For any tropical cyclone formation, according to the existing theory, the solar heating isthe initial source for evaporation. And the factors like, moisture and surfacetemperature distribution over water are responsible for the formation

    of tropical depression. In most situations, water temperatures of at least 26.5

    degree C (80 degree F) are needed down to a depth of at least 50m (150 feet) for acyclone formation.

    The following evidences are contrary to the theory, that the solar heating is the initialsource for weather changes.

    1. The enormous amount of energy continuously emitted by the sun is dispersed intoouter space in all directions. And only a small fraction of this energy is intercepted bythe earth and other solar planets. The solar constant value is estimated on the basis ofthe solar radiation received on a unit area exposed perpendicularly to the rays of the sunat an average distance between the sun and the earth. It is approximately 1.4 kW/m2, or2.0 cal/cm2/min. How this fraction of energy is converted and used into the generation ofa deadly hurricane which can expend as much energy as 10,000 nuclear bombs!

    Both the cyclones and quakes occur in the same general patterns andoriginate year after year, principally in certain basins and zones of earthbut unable to predict both the events precisely. If the two events are ofdifferent origin at least on one occasion and at least at one place, theboth events could have happened simultaneously at least once by chance

    anywhere in the world, but so far not happened! It is scientifically truethat the incoming solar radiation is the same on the same date irrespective of the year,the actual conditions of the surface of the tropical Oceans are by no means the same on

    the same date of each year. But still the prediction of a monsoon isunsuccessful, though with the help of advanced computer modeling andsatellite images are available.

    Again it would be impossible for the scientists to predict when and where will the nextcyclone will develop and what strength it can attain maximum? Because sometimes thelow depression instantly die down itself with the same speed as it formed over theOcean; sometimes develop monstrously and move violently towards the land or maintainits presence for a quite long time as long as the Ocean feeds heat energy to the storm.But quake will follow without failure.

    2. Further the worldwide tropical cyclone activity peaks in late summer that is in theaphelion (farthest from Sun) position of the earth with respect to the sun. If the solarenergy as the primary heating source of the Ocean, then the tropical cyclones should bepeak in the perihelion (nearest to Sun) position but it is contradictorily peak in theaphelion position of the earth. On a world wide scale, May is the least active mon...