Tony Abbott’s waking nightmare Australian politics The Abbott effect Speculation continues to swirl about the prime minister’s future Mar 7th 2015 | SYDNEY | From the print edition JUST 18 months after Tony Abbott became Australia’s prime minister, pundits are writing his political obituary. A string of gaffes, disastrous polls and bitter divisions within his conservative Liberal Party sparked a motion last month to open his leadership to a party ballot. He survived, just. But the drama continues to feed a febrile mood in Canberra, the capital. On March 2nd an opinion poll gave Mr Abbott some breathing space. For how long is another matter. The Ipsos poll showed the Liberals and their coalition partner, the National Party, trailing the opposition Labor Party by only two percentage points, after including secondpreference votes. A month earlier the government had lagged by eight points. Mr Abbott’s personal approval rating edged up slightly, though only to a measly 32%. His allies jumped to defend him. Andrew Robb, the minister for trade and investment, says that in the poll the voters “have spoken” and that the push by colleagues to topple the prime minister is “dying”. That may be optimistic. Asked who they would like to lead the Liberals, 39% of voters chose Malcolm Turnbull, the communications minister, and 24% chose Julie Bishop, the foreign minister. Just 19% plumped for Mr Abbott. Some pollsters read the rise in positive sentiment towards the government as a sign that some voters expect to see Mr Turnbull in charge before the next election, due in 2016. Backed by the Liberals’ conservative wing, Mr Abbott unseated the centrist Mr Turnbull as party leader in 2009. In the latest jostling, Mr Turnbull has taken a steady approach that voters seem

Australian Politics_ the Abbott Effect _ the Economist

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Australian politics

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TonyAbbottswakingnightmare

Australianpolitics

TheAbbotteffectSpeculationcontinuestoswirlabouttheprimeministersfuture

Mar7th2015|SYDNEY| Fromtheprintedition

JUST18months

afterTony

Abbottbecame

Australiasprime

minister,pundits

arewritinghis

political

obituary.A

stringofgaffes,disastrouspollsandbitterdivisionswithinhisconservativeLiberalParty

sparkedamotionlastmonthtoopenhisleadershiptoapartyballot.Hesurvived,just.Butthe

dramacontinuestofeedafebrilemoodinCanberra,thecapital.OnMarch2ndanopinionpoll

gaveMrAbbottsomebreathingspace.Forhowlongisanothermatter.

TheIpsospollshowedtheLiberalsandtheircoalitionpartner,theNationalParty,trailingthe

oppositionLaborPartybyonlytwopercentagepoints,afterincludingsecondpreferencevotes.

Amonthearlierthegovernmenthadlaggedbyeightpoints.MrAbbottspersonalapproval

ratingedgedupslightly,thoughonlytoameasly32%.Hisalliesjumpedtodefendhim.Andrew

Robb,theministerfortradeandinvestment,saysthatinthepollthevotershavespokenand

thatthepushbycolleaguestotoppletheprimeministerisdying.

Thatmaybeoptimistic.AskedwhotheywouldliketoleadtheLiberals,39%ofvoterschose

MalcolmTurnbull,thecommunicationsminister,and24%choseJulieBishop,theforeign

minister.Just19%plumpedforMrAbbott.Somepollstersreadtheriseinpositivesentiment

towardsthegovernmentasasignthatsomevotersexpecttoseeMrTurnbullinchargebefore

thenextelection,duein2016.

BackedbytheLiberalsconservativewing,MrAbbottunseatedthecentristMrTurnbullasparty

leaderin2009.Inthelatestjostling,MrTurnbullhastakenasteadyapproachthatvotersseem
toprefertoMrAbbottsstreetfightingstyle.Atellingclashcameoverarecentreportby

AustraliasHumanRightsCommissionthatcriticisedbothLaborandcoalitiongovernmentsfor

lockingchildasylumseekersindetentioncentres.MrAbbottrespondedbyattackingthe

commissionsboss,GillianTriggs.MrTurnbulldefendedMsTriggsasaverydistinguished

legalscholar,addingthatthemainissueisthechildren.

OrdinaryAustralianshaveneverreallytakentoMrAbbott.Buthealsohasproblemsinhis

cabinet.Hiscolleaguesresentthepowerwieldedbyhischiefofstaff,PetaCredlin.Shehappens

tobemarriedtotheLiberalPartysdirector,BrianLoughnane.Aleakedmemofromtheparty

treasurertoLiberalpartyofficialsfrettedaboutapotentialconflictofinterest.Thepresshave

mademuchoftheleakasanapparentattempttodamageMrAbbott.Hedismisseditasa

storminateacup.

Aftertherespiteproducedbythelatestpoll,MrAbbottissuedaflurryofpolicyannouncements.

Hepledged300moreAustraliantroopsforIraq,ontopof170specialforcestherenow,toserve

withabout100NewZealandsoldierstrainingtheIraqiarmy.Amuchballyhooedreportwas

publishedaboutthepressureonbudgetsthatcanbeexpectedfromanageingpopulationover

thenext40years.Andtheprimeministerfinallydroppedoneofthemostunpopularmeasures

inhisgovernmentsfirstbudgetlastyear:aplantochargethoseusingpublichealthinsurance

forvisitingdoctors.

MrRobbsaystheLiberalswillnowgiveMrAbbottclearairtocarryonasleaderuntilthenext

budget,dueinMay,andbeyond.Othercolleaguesarelesshappywiththatprospect,given

thatthefirstbudgetwasbungledbetweenMrAbbottandhistreasurer,JoeHockey.Moreover,a

stateelectionisdueonMarch28thinNewSouthWales,MrAbbottshomestate,whichis

currentlygovernedbytheLiberals.Recentdefeatsofonetermconservativestategovernments

inVictoriaandQueenslandhaverockedtheLiberals.IfMikeBaird,thepopularstatepremier,

doesbadly,theAbbotteffectcouldtakemostoftheblame.

Fromtheprintedition:Asia