Australian Natural Resources Data Librarydata.daff.gov.au/data/warehouse/agcomd9abcc004/agcomd9abcc20… · ABARES Agricultural commodities – vol 4 no 4 December quarter 2014 Contents

Agricultural commodities

Research by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences

DECEMBER QUARTER 2014

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ABARESAgricultural commodities – vol. 4 no. 4 • December quarter 2014

Contents

Economic overview 6

Crops

Wheat 34

Coarse grains 41

Oilseeds 50

Sugar 60

Cotton 68

Livestock

Beef and veal 88

Sheep meat and wool 95

Dairy 104

Boxes

China’s food self-sufficiency policy 22

Recent developments in markets for Australian wine 79

Shift in world cotton markets to developing Asian countries 81

Statistical tables 111

Report extracts 153

ABARES contacts 157

2015

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Be part of the ABARES Outlook 2015 conference with other leading public and private sector decision-makers in the agriculture, forestry, fisheries and food sectors. Examine the major issues for Australia’s primary industries, understand the short to long-term outlook for a range of commodities and explore industry issues.

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Economic overview

6 ABARESAgricultural commodities – vol. 4 no. 4 • December quarter 2014

Economic overviewJenny Eather, Brian Moir and Faraz Syed

• World economic growth is assumed to remain around 3.3 per cent in 2014 and rise to 3.6 per cent in 2015.

• Economic growth in OECD countries is expected to strengthen in 2014 and 2015, albeit at a modest pace.

• Economic growth in China is assumed to moderate to 7.3 per cent in 2014 and 7.1 per cent in 2015, as the Chinese Government implements structural reforms.

• The outlook for growth in developing countries is mixed and will be affected by weakened import demand from China.

• The Australian dollar has depreciated. It is assumed to average around US86 cents for 2014–15 as a whole.

Modest global growth in 2014 and 2015Global economic growth remained below trend in the first three quarters of 2014. Economic performance in most European economies was sluggish, with the exception of the United Kingdom. In the United States economic recovery continued, with stronger private sector demand, higher employment, expansion of manufacturing and recovery in the housing market. In contrast, Japan fell into recession in the September quarter. This was partly because of the consumption tax increase applied in April 2014, which dampened private consumption.

Emerging economies have continued to drive world economic growth in 2014 in aggregate terms. Although slower growth and weaker import demand in China adversely affected some countries in Asia, this was partly offset by stronger demand from the United States.

7

Economic overview


World economic growth

%

a ABARES assumption.

1

2

3

4

5

6

2015a20132011200920072005200320011999

Looking forward, world economic growth is expected to strengthen in the short term, albeit at a modest pace. World economic growth is assumed to average 3.3 per cent in 2014 and to improve to around 3.6 per cent in 2015.

For the OECD region, growth is assumed to increase gradually in response to increased monetary stimuli in Europe and Japan. OECD economic growth is assumed to be around 2.2 per cent in 2015, compared with 1.7 per cent in 2014.

For developing economies as a whole, economic growth is assumed to be 5.1 per cent in 2015, compared with an estimated 4.7 per cent in 2014.

Regional economic growth

%world

Russian Federation,Ukraine and Eastern Europe

Latin America

non-OECD Asia

OECD

20132014a

2015a


0

2

4

6

8

10

8

Economic overview


Key macroeconomic assumptionsK i iKeymacroeconomicassumptionsKeymacroeconomicassumptionsWorld unit 2012 2013 2014 a 2015 aWorld unit 2012 2013 2014 a 2015 aEconomic growthOECD % 1 2 1 4 1 7 2 2Economic growthOECD % 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.2U i d S % 2 3 2 2 2 3 2 8United States % 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.8Japan % 1.5 1.5 0.5 1.2Japan % 1.5 1.5 0.5 1.2Western Europe % – 0.1 0.2 1.3 1.5Western Europe % 0.1 0.2 1.3 1.5– Germany % 0 9 0 5 1 3 1 5– Germany % 0.9 0.5 1.3 1.5France % 0 3 0 3 0 2 1 0– France % 0.3 0.3 0.2 1.0U it d Ki d % 0 3 1 7 3 2 3 0– United Kingdom % 0.3 1.7 3.2 3.0

– Italy % – 2.4 – 1.9 – 0.1 0.4ItalyKorea, Rep. of % 2.3 3.0 3.4 3.6Korea, Rep. of % 2.3 3.0 3.4 3.6New Zealand % 2 5 2 8 3 5 3 0New Zealand % 2.5 2.8 3.5 3.0Developing countries % 5 1 4 7 4 7 5 1Developing countries % 5.1 4.7 4.7 5.1

OECD A i % 6 4 6 5 6 2 6 4– non‐OECD Asia % 6.4 6.5 6.2 6.4 South‐East Asia b % 6.2 5.2 4.7 5.3 South East Asia b

China c % 7.7 7.7 7.3 7.1 China c % 7.7 7.7 7.3 7.1Taiwan % 1.5 2.1 3.4 3.5 Taiwan % 1.5 2.1 3.4 3.5Singapore % 2 5 3 9 3 4 3 8 Singapore % 2.5 3.9 3.4 3.8India % 3 8 4 4 5 3 5 9 India % 3.8 4.4 5.3 5.9

L i A i– Latin America % 2.9 2.7 1.2 2.2Russian Federation % 3.4 1.3 0.0 0.4Russian Federation % 3.4 1.3 0.0 0.4Ukraine % 0.3 0.0 – 6.0 – 3.0Ukraine % 0.3 0.0 – 6.0 – 3.0Eastern Europe % 1 4 2 8 2 7 2 7Eastern Europe % 1.4 2.8 2.7 2.7W ld d % 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 6World d % 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.6I fl tiInflationUnited States % 2.1 1.5 1.7 2.2United States % 2.1 1.5 1.7 2.2Interest ratesUS prime rate e % 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 7Interest ratesUS prime rate e % 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.7

unit 2011 12 2012 13 2013 14 2014 15 aunit 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 aAustraliaEconomic growth % 3.7 2.5 2.5 2.5Economic growth % 3.7 2.5 2.5 2.5Inflation % 2 3 2 3 2 6 2 5Inflation % 2.3 2.3 2.6 2.5Interest rates % 6 2 5 2 4 6 4 5Interest rates g % 6.2 5.2 4.6 4.5

li hAustralian exchange ratesgUS$/A$ 1.03 1.03 0.92 0.86US$/A$ 1.03 1.03 0.92 0.86TWI for A$ h 76 77 71 70TWI for A$ h 76 77 71 70ABARES ti b I d i M l i Phili i Th il d d Vi t E l da ABARES assumption. b Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. c Excludes

Hong Kong. d Weighted using 2013 purchasing‐power‐parity (PPP) valuation of country gross g g g g p g p p y ( ) y gdomestic product by the International Monetary Fund. e Commercial bank prime lending domestic product by the International Monetary Fund. e Commercial bank prime lending rates in the United States g Large business weighted average variable rate on creditrates in the United States. g Large business weighted average variable rate on credit

t t di h B M 1970 100outstanding. h Base: May 1970 = 100.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; International Monetary Fund; Organisation ; ; y ; gfor Economic Co‐operation and Development; Reserve Bank of Australiafor Economic Co‐operation and Development; Reserve Bank of Australia

9

Economic overview


Economic prospects in Australia’s major export markets

United StatesReal gross domestic product in the United States expanded by 2.4 per cent year-on-year in the September quarter 2014, compared with 2.6 per cent in the June quarter and 1.9 per cent in the March quarter. Residential investment was weak in the September quarter, but other private sector investment and consumption remained strong. Total government expenditure expanded slightly for the first time since 2010.

Private consumption demand in aggregate expanded, at 2.2 per cent year-on-year in the March quarter and 2.4 per cent in each of the June and September quarters.

The US dollar has strengthened against most other currencies since mid 2014, with the broad dollar (trade weighted) index increasing by 7 per cent between 1 July and the end of November.

US employment and unemployment

million %

Unemployment(right axis)

Non-farm employment

2

4

6

8

10

12

125

130

135

140

145

150

2011 2012 2013 2014

OctJulAprJanOctJulAprJanOctJulAprJanOctJulAprJan

Manufacturing activity expanded by 3.8 per cent, year-on-year, in the September quarter 2014 and by 3.4 per cent in the June quarter, following expansion of 2.6 per cent for 2013 as a whole. Manufacturing activity has been growing since 2010, but only in the past two quarters has the activity returned to 2007 levels. Exports increased by 3.8 per cent in the September quarter, year-on-year, following an increase of 3.9 per cent in the June quarter. Imports expanded by 3.4 per cent and 3.8 per cent, respectively, in the same period.

New house prices strengthened by 2.9 per cent in the September quarter, following a contraction in the June quarter. Housing starts in the first 10 months of 2014 were 10 per cent higher than in the same period in 2013.

Non-farm employment in October 2014 was 2 per cent or 2.8 million higher than at the same time a year earlier. Unemployment in October 2014 was 5.8 per cent, down from 5.9 per cent in September and the lowest since 2008.

US economic growth is assumed to be 2.3 per cent in 2014 and to strengthen to 2.8 per cent in 2015.

10

Economic overview


ChinaEconomic growth in China moderated in the September quarter 2014. Real gross domestic product expanded at a year-on-year rate of 7.3 per cent, down from 7.5 per cent in the June quarter and 7.4 per cent in the March quarter.

Consumer sentiment in China remains relatively weak. According to the Westpac MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator, sentiment fell by 2 per cent year-on-year in the September quarter 2014, following falls of 2 per cent in the March quarter and 4 per cent in the June quarter. Consumer sentiment in the September quarter was the lowest since the December quarter 2011. Nevertheless, growth in retail sales in nominal terms has remained relatively steady throughout 2014, increasing by 12 per cent year-on-year in each of the March, June and September quarters. This growth was slower than in 2012 and 2013, partly reflecting lower rates of inflation in 2014.

The real estate market is also showing signs of weakness. In September, average new house prices fell month-on-month in almost all large and medium sized cities and fell by an average of 1.2 per cent year-on-year. New housing starts have also been weak throughout 2014. In September, the area of new housing starts fell at a year-on-year rate of 6.2 per cent. At the end of September 2014, the Chinese Government introduced a housing market package that included discounted mortgage rates, reduced investment restrictions and funding for social housing and urban redevelopment.

Selected housing market indicators—year-on-year change

% %

Area of housing startedAverage new house prices (right axis) a

a Average change in price indexes in 70 large and medium Chinese cities; excludes public housing. b Data for January and February are not available separately. They are combined to avoid excessive volatility caused by variations in the date of Chinese New Year.

–20

0

20

40

60

–4

0

4

8

12

Sep2014

Jul2014

May2014

Mar2014

Dec2013

Oct2013

Aug2013

Jun2013

Apr2013

Jan–Feb2013b

Fixed asset investment also slowed in the September quarter, increasing by 13.4 per cent, down from 17.3 per cent in the first half of 2014 and 19.7 per cent in 2013 as a whole. This partly reflects reduced real estate investment but investment in manufacturing was also weak, which reflects overcapacity in some sectors.

11

Economic overview


Export performance was strong in the September quarter, partly offsetting weakness in construction and private investment. Exports grew by 11 per cent year-on-year in real terms in the September quarter, compared with 3 per cent growth in the June quarter and a contraction of 5 per cent in the March quarter. The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) increased in the September quarter, averaging 51.3, compared with 50.3 and 50.7 in the March and June quarters, respectively. A PMI above 50 indicates an expansion of the manufacturing sector.

China’s real export growth and manufacturing purchasing managers’ index

Exports quarterly year-on-year growth

% index

Manufacturing PMIindex – quarterly average (right axis)

0

10

20

30

40

50

50

51

52

53

54

55

Sep2014

Mar2014

Sep2013

Mar2013

Sep2012

Mar2012

Sep2011

Mar2011

Sep2010

Inflation averaged 2 per cent year-on-year in the September quarter 2014, compared with an average of 2.5 per cent in the first half of the year and the official target of 3.5 per cent. Lower inflation in the September quarter largely reflected reduced food price inflation. However, producer prices also fell, reflecting subdued demand as well as lower prices for commodity inputs.

Inflation rate in China

% %

Food inflation (right axis)CPI

1

2

3

4

5

6

2

4

6

8

10

12

Sep2014

May2014

Jan2014

Sep2013

May2013

Jan2013

Sep2012

May2012

Jan2012

12

Economic overview


Moderate rates of inflation give policymakers leeway to implement further stimulus measures if needed to support economic activity. However, large stimulus measures would likely only be used if growth were to fall significantly and threaten employment. Since announcing its reform agenda in late 2013, the Chinese Government has frequently stated that it is willing to accept slower short-term growth while implementing much-needed structural reform.

In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts, economic growth in China is assumed to average 7.3 per cent in 2014 before moderating to 7.1 per cent in 2015.

JapanJapan’s economy contracted in the September quarter 2014 by 1.2 per cent year-on-year, following a contraction of 0.2 per cent, year-on-year, in the June quarter. Japan is now considered to be in recession, although growth in the first nine months was positive year-on-year.

The Bank of Japan’s September 2014 survey of businesses showed a mixed outlook. Compared with the June survey, business conditions improved slightly for large manufacturers but worsened for other firms. Manufacturing firms reported expectations of increased capital expenditure in the second half of the 2014 Japanese financial year (April 2014 to March 2015), while non-manufacturing firms were planning to reduce investment.

Between January 2013 and October 2014 the yen depreciated by almost 25 per cent against the US dollar. Exports increased by 3 per cent year-on-year in the first nine months of 2014, but imports expanded by 7 per cent over the same period.

Unemployment in Japan has fallen during the past four years. It fell from 5.1 per cent in 2010 to 4.0 per cent in 2013. It continued to fall from 3.7 per cent in the June quarter 2014 to 3.6 per cent in September. Real wages fell by 3 per cent year-on-year in the month of September, the 15th straight monthly decline. Declining real wages are expected to offset the effect of the falling unemployment rate and weigh on household consumption expenditure in the near term.

Unemployment in Japan

%

1

2

3

4

5

6

Sep

Jun

Mar

DecSep

Jun

Mar

DecSep

Jun

Mar

DecSep

Jun

Mar

DecSep

Jun

Mar

DecSep

Jun

Mar

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

13

Economic overview


The consumer price index rose by 3.2 per cent in the year to September 2014. Most of this increase occurred in April 2014 and is largely attributable to the increase in consumption taxes in that month. Inflation has been very low since then.

In an attempt to further stimulate the economy, Japan expanded its quantitative easing program at the end of October 2014. Economic policy in Japan is likely to continue to be accommodating. A second increase in consumption taxes formerly planned for October 2015 has been deferred to April 2017.

In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts, economic growth in Japan is assumed to average 0.5 per cent in 2014 and 1.2 per cent in 2015.

Western EuropeEconomic conditions in Western Europe were subdued in the September quarter 2014. The region continues to have high unemployment and significant underutilised capacity. In France, real gross domestic product increased by only 0.4 per cent year-on-year in the September quarter, down from 0.8 per cent in the June quarter. In Germany, economic growth increased to 1.2 per cent in the September quarter, up from 1.0 per cent in the June quarter.

In the United Kingdom, economic growth slowed in the September quarter compared with the first half of 2014 but remained relatively strong at 3.0 per cent year-on-year. Services, particularly business services and finance, contributed 2.6 percentage points to growth. However, manufacturing growth in the quarter slowed and economic sentiment fell 6 per cent in October from a recent high in June.

Export performance has generally been weak. Exports from the United Kingdom and France decreased year-on-year in the first eight months of 2014, by 12 per cent and 2 per cent, respectively. Exports from Italy increased marginally over the same period. German exports have been stronger in comparison, despite Germany being one of the countries most exposed by trade sanctions imposed on the Russian Federation since July. In August, German exports to the Russian Federation fell 26.3 per cent year-on-year. Growth in other export markets more than offset this, with German exports increasing by 6 per cent year-on-year in the September quarter.

European exports increased in the month of September, with intra-EU trade increasing by 5 per cent year-on-year and extra-EU trade increasing by 7 per cent.

Industrial production is yet to return to pre-global financial crisis levels in most countries. In September 2014 industrial production remained below 2008 levels in France (11 per cent) and Italy (22 per cent). In contrast, industrial production in the United Kingdom grew 2 per cent year-on-year in each of the June and September quarters.

14

Economic overview


Industrial production—selected Western European countries

index2010=100

ItalyFranceUnited KingdomGermany

Sep2014

Sep2013

Sep2012

Sep2011

Sep2010

Sep2009

Sep2008

Sep2007

90

100

110

120

130

Low levels of industrial production, together with persistently high unemployment, point to high levels of underutilised capacity. In France and Italy, the unemployment rate increased slightly quarter-on-quarter in the September quarter, to average 10.5 per cent and 12.6 per cent, respectively. It averaged 10.1 per cent for the European Union as a whole. In contrast, unemployment in the United Kingdom has been trending downwards over the past year, reaching an average of 6 per cent in the September quarter, compared with 7.6 per cent in the same quarter of 2013. In Germany, unemployment remained low, averaging 5 per cent in the September quarter.

Unemployment—selected Western European countries

%

ItalyFrance

United KingdomGermany

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Sep2014

Sep2013

Sep2012

Sep2011

Sep2010

15

Economic overview


The volume of retail sales increased modestly in the September quarter 2014, increasing by about 1.5 per cent year-on-year for the European Union as a whole. In the month of September, retail sales increased by 2.9 per cent in the United Kingdom, following growth of 5.0 per cent in August. In Germany, retail sales decreased by 0.8 per cent year-on-year in September, after growing by 2.3 per cent in the previous month.

Accommodating monetary policy is expected to provide support for economic growth in the short term. After cutting interest rates to record lows in September 2014, the European Central Bank announced in mid November it was willing to increase the pace of asset purchases and was considering unconventional monetary policy measures, such as purchases of government bonds, to avoid deflation. Inflation in the Euro area was around 0.4 per cent in October 2014, significantly below the European Central Bank’s 2 per cent target. In the United Kingdom, interest rates are also at historic lows.

Growth in government debt levels has slowed. This is expected to allow a gradual easing of fiscal austerity measures over the outlook period, offering some support to economic activity.

In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts, economic activity in Western Europe is assumed to expand by 1.2 per cent in 2014, increasing to 1.5 per cent in 2015. Most of the growth in the region is expected to come from recoveries in the United Kingdom and Germany, with growth in France and Italy expected to remain well below trend over the outlook period.

Non-OECD AsiaEconomic growth in non-OECD Asia remained below trend in most regional economies in the September quarter and performance was mixed. Lower commodity prices and moderating import demand from China weakened growth in Indonesia, with a year-on-year rate of 5 per cent in the September quarter—the slowest in five years.

In India, the economy showed some signs of recovery in the first half of 2014, with expansion in manufacturing, electricity output and the service sector. However, since then agricultural output has been weak in the face of poor rainfall. Exports have been sluggish since mid year, despite a depreciation of the rupee.

Despite a more stable political environment, economic growth in Thailand was slow to recover. In the September quarter, the Thai economy expanded at a year-on-year rate of 0.6 per cent, up from an expansion of 0.4 per cent in the June quarter and a contraction of 0.5 per cent in the March quarter. Stronger domestic demand was partly offset by real exports falling by 1 per cent year-on-year in the September quarter. A 364.5 billion baht (equivalent to US$11 billion) stimulus package, announced in October 2014, is expected to aid the recovery. However, growth is likely to remain below trend in the short term.

In Malaysia, economic growth moderated in the September quarter. Economic activity expanded by 5.6 per cent year-on-year, after increasing by 6.3 per cent in the first half of the year. Malaysian export growth has been weak since mid 2014, and domestic demand also weakened as the government wound back expenditure in an attempt to reduce government debt. A goods and services tax, to be introduced in April 2015, is likely to further weigh on growth in 2015.

16

Economic overview


Inflation rates in non-OECD Asia are mixed, with low rates in Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand giving scope for accommodating monetary policy. In contrast, India, Indonesia and the Philippines have struggled to contain high inflation rates since late 2013. Lower food and fuel prices in the latter countries have helped ease inflationary pressure in recent months. However, monetary policy is likely to remain tight until inflationary pressure receeds further, acting as a drag on growth over the outlook period.

Indonesia’s new government has taken advantage of the recent fall in world oil prices to implement its election promise to reduce state subsidies on fuel, which made up about 13 per cent of the 2014 budget. This should free up government resources for much-needed spending on infrastructure, education and health.

For non-OECD Asia as a whole, economic growth in 2014 is assumed to average 6.2 per cent in 2014, before recovering to 6.4 per cent in 2015.

Economic growth in non-OECD Asia

2015a

2014a

2013

Taiwan

India

China

Singapore

Vietnam

Philippines

Malaysia

Indonesia

Thailand

%


1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Economic prospects in AustraliaEconomic growth in Australia was slightly below trend in the first quarter of 2014–15. Real gross domestic product increased at a year-on-year rate of 2.9 per cent in the September quarter (not seasonally adjusted), following a 2.6 per cent increase in the June quarter.

The value of exports of goods and services contracted year-on-year by 5.0 per cent in the September quarter, following a decline of 1.3 per cent in the June quarter. The fall in the value of exports was largely the result of a contraction in the value of mineral and energy exports, offset partly by increased exports of food, live animals and tourism and education services.

Unemployment in October 2014 was 6.2 per cent, unchanged from the previous month but 0.4 percentage points above the level in October 2013.

In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts, the Australian economy is assumed to expand by 2.5 per cent in 2014–15.

17

Economic overview


Australian economic indicators

%

Economic growth Inflation rate

Interest rate b

a ABARES assumption. b Large business weighted average variable rate on credit outstanding.

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2014–15a2013–142012–13

InflationThe consumer price index increased by 2.3 per cent year-on-year in the September quarter 2014, following an increase of 3.5 per cent in the June quarter.

The most significant price increases in the year to September included alcohol and tobacco (7.3 per cent), education (5.2 per cent) and health (4.2 per cent). These rises were partly offset by falls in prices of clothing and footwear (–2.7 per cent) and communication (–1.8 per cent). Electricity prices fell by 4.4 per cent, reflecting the repeal of the carbon tax on 1 July 2014.

In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts, inflation in Australia is assumed to average around 2.5 per cent in 2014–15.

Short-term direction of the dollarThe Australian dollar was fairly stable against the US dollar between April and August 2014, when it traded between US92 cents and US95 cents. However, from September to early December, the US dollar strengthened against major currencies and the Australian dollar lost value markedly. It fluctuated between US85 and US87 cents in November. The Australian dollar is estimated to have averaged close to US90 cents in the first half of 2014–15.

Australian terms of trade and exchange rates

US$/A$Terms of trade

Trade weighted index

Sep2014

Sep2012

Sep2010

Sep2008

Sep2006

Sep2004

Sep2002

20

0

40

60

80

100

120

18

Economic overview


Australia’s terms of trade, the ratio of export prices to import prices, is an indicator of the fundamental value of the Australian dollar. The terms of trade declined by 25 per cent from September 2011 to the September quarter 2014. This reflects mainly weakening prices on world markets for mineral resources. The value of the Australian dollar, while showing volatility, declined by only 12 per cent against the US dollar and by 6 per cent on a trade weighted basis during this period.

Prices for mineral resources have fallen further since September 2014. The monthly commodity price index in November 2014, expressed in US dollars, was 4 per cent lower than in September. The Australian dollar depreciated by 1.3 per cent against the US dollar and strengthened slightly on a trade weighted basis in this period. Terms of trade movements indicate that the Australian dollar could depreciate further in the short term.

Demand for the Australian dollar will also be influenced by the differentials between interest rates in Australia and major world economies. Interest rates in Europe, Japan and the United States are substantially lower than in Australia. This encourages international investors to seek higher returns in Australia, thereby maintaining demand for the Australian dollar. For example, Japanese holdings of Australian bonds increased by around $5 billion in the six months to October 2014. Although interest rate differentials between Australia and the United States have been narrowing, at the end of October 2014 the interest rate on Commonwealth Government Securities with three years maturity was still more than 150 basis points higher than the comparable US Treasury security. Higher interest rates in Australia are expected to support the value of the Australian dollar.

In addition to these fundamental factors, movements in the Australian dollar are influenced by changes in financial market sentiment towards the Australian economy and by the outlook for major world economies. For example, any indications of stronger than expected growth in the United States, or of weakness in the Australian economy, could lead to reduced investment interest in Australian assets and result in a further depreciation of the Australian dollar. The Australian dollar could also depreciate if the outlook for economic growth in China weakened unexpectedly, potentially leading to weaker demand for Australian exports.

Over the remainder of 2014–15, the Australian dollar is assumed to average significantly lower than the value recorded in the first half of the year. A survey of major Australian commercial banks in early December 2014 indicated a wide range of forecasts for the Australian dollar over the outlook period. While some banks expect that the Australian dollar will depreciate gradually in the next six months, one bank expects that the Australian dollar will appreciate to above US90 cents before the end of 2014–15.

Given the factors discussed, the Australian dollar is assumed to average US86 cents and TWI 70 in 2014–15. However, considerable uncertainty remains in the outlook for the Australian dollar.

19

Economic overview


Outlook for Australian agricultural and fisheries exportsThe total volume of farm production is forecast to decrease by 5.9 per cent in 2014–15, following an estimated increase of 5.5 per cent in 2013–14. The forecast decline in 2014–15 reflects expected falls in production of crops from the estimated record highs in 2013–14. In 2014–15 the volume index of crop production is expected to decline by 11.3 per cent, while livestock production is forecast to increase by 0.7 per cent.

The index of unit returns for Australian farm exports is forecast to decline by 1.8 per cent in 2014–15, following a rise of 7.4 per cent in 2013–14. Higher export prices in 2014–15 for beef, wine and mutton are expected to be more than offset by lower prices for wheat, cotton, barley and canola. An assumed weaker value of the Australian dollar in 2014–15 is expected to partially offset the impact on Australian unit export returns of weaker world prices in US dollar terms for such commodities as grains, oilseeds, cotton and sugar.

Earnings from farm exports are forecast to fall by 8.6 per cent in 2014–15 to around $37.6 billion. This largely reflects expected falls in the export earnings of cotton (down 37 per cent), canola (44 per cent), barley (36 per cent), wheat (10 per cent) and dairy (20 per cent). Export earnings are forecast to increase for beef and veal (up 6 per cent), lamb (12 per cent), live sheep (62 per cent) and sugar (7 per cent).

Export earnings for crops are forecast to decline to around $19.3 billion in 2014–15 from $22.8 billion in 2013–14. The export value of livestock and livestock products is forecast to decrease slightly in 2014–15 to $18.3 billion, following an increase of 22.6 per cent to $18.3 billion in 2013–14.

For fisheries products, export earnings are forecast to increase by 3.3 per cent in 2014–15 to around $1.3 billion, following an increase of 11 per cent in 2013–14. Export earnings in 2014–15 are forecast to rise by 62 per cent for salmonids, 14 per cent for tuna and 8 per cent for live, fresh and chilled abalone.

On 17 November 2014 Australia and the People’s Republic of China announced the conclusion of negotiations and signed a Declaration of Intent to work towards signing the China–Australia Free Trade Agreement. The agreement is expected, in time, to bring considerable benefits to exporters of agricultural commodities. However, several steps are necessary before the agreement can come into force.

Tariff elimination on trade between the Republic of Korea and Australia will start on 12 December 2014, the date the Korea–Australia Free Trade Agreement enters into force. An assessment of the effect on Australian beef and cheese exports to the Republic of Korea is presented in the June 2014 edition of Agricultural commodities.

20

Economic overview


Major Australian agricultural commodity exports a

WorldpriceValue ValueVolume

2014–15

2013–14

2014–15f

$b

a Wheat, cotton, sugar, canola, cheese, skim milk powder and whole milk powder are world indicator prices in US$. All other commodities are export unit returns or domestic prices in A$. f ABARES forecast.

Skim milk powder

Rock lobster

Cheese

Mutton

Live feeder/slaughter cattle

Canola

Barley

Sugar

Cotton

Lamb

Wine

Wool

Wheat

Beef and veal

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

6%

–10%

–6%

2%

12%

–37%

7%

–36%

–44%

5%

7%

–6%

–6%

–30%

0%

–7%

–4%

0%

6%

–30%

6%

–30%

–35%

0%

–5%

–2%

1%

3%

12%

–10%

–2%

2%

6%

–23%

–5%

–8%

–16%

5%

12%

–19%

–7%

–35%

$6.26b

$6.10b

$2.88b

$1.85b

$1.47b

$2.35b

$1.35b

$2.20b

$1.93b

$0.78b

$0.75b

$0.77b

$0.59b

$0.71b

$6.67b

$5.47b

$2.70b

$1.89b

$1.64b

$1.48b

$1.45b

$1.41b

$1.08b

$0.82b

$0.80b

$0.72b

$0.56b

$0.49b

21

Economic overview


Major indicators of Australia’s agriculture and natural resources based sectors2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014–10 –11 –12 –13 –14 s –15 f 2013–14 2014–15

Exchange rate US$/A$ 0.88 0.99 1.03 1.03 0.92 0.86 –10.7 –6.5

Farm index 100.0 110.5 110.9 108.4 116.4 114.3 7.4 –1.8Value of exportsFarm b A$m 27 837 31 917 36 389 38 017 41 079 37 557 8.1 –8.6– crops A$m 14 933 17 420 21 654 23 062 22 750 19 286 –1.4 –15.2– livestock A$m 12 904 14 496 14 735 14 954 18 329 18 272 22.6 –0.3Fisheries products A$m 1 246 1 248 1 227 1 175 1 304 1 347 11.0 3.3

Farm A$m 39 793 46 375 47 432 48 501 53 355 50 668 10.0 –5.0– crops A$m 21 265 25 336 26 251 28 394 30 136 26 526 6.1 –12.0– livestock A$m 18 529 21 038 21 180 20 107 23 219 24 141 15.5 4.0Forestry and fisheries A$m 3 970 4 099 3 925 3 891 4 286 4 475 10.2 4.4– forestry A$m 1 779 1 851 1 620 1 509 1 715 1 884 13.6 9.8– fisheries A$m 2 191 2 248 2 305 2 381 2 571 2 591 7.9 0.8Volume of farm production c index 108.0 112.8 118.5 119.5 126.1 118.7 5.5 –5.9– crops index 115.3 123.3 135.1 133.0 139.8 124.0 5.1 –11.3– livestock index 98.7 100.6 100.7 104.7 111.1 111.9 6.1 0.7

Crop area (grains and oilseeds) ’000 ha 23 787 23 946 24 295 23 841 23 606 23 604 –1.0 –0.0Sheep million 68.1 73.1 74.7 75.5 72.7 69.8 –3.7 –4.0Cattle million 26.6 28.5 28.4 29.3 27.6 26.4 –5.8 –4.3Farm costs A$m 34 490 36 559 37 263 37 444 38 375 37 969 2.5 –1.1Net cash income d A$m 10 096 14 759 15 241 16 255 20 323 18 183 25.0 –10.5Net value of farm production e A$m 5 304 9 816 10 169 11 057 14 980 12 698 35.5 –15.2Farmers’ terms of trade g index 88.4 96.3 93.2 95.4 99.0 99.7 3.8 0.7

Agriculture, forestry and fishing ’000 351 337 321 302 313 na 3.7 naAustralia ’000 10 846 11 115 11 249 11 389 11 482 na 0.8 naa Base: 2009–10 = 100. b For a definition of the gross value of farm production see Table 13. c Chain weighted basis using Fisher’s ideal index with a reference year of 1997–98 = 100. d Gross value of farm production less total cash costs. e Gross value of farm production less total farm costs. f ABARES forecast. g Ratio of index of prices received by farmers and index of prices paid by farmers; base: 1997–98 = 100. na Not available.s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Reserve Bank of Australia

Employment

MajorindicatorsofAustralia'sagricultureandnaturalresourcessector

Australian export unit returns a

Gross value of production b

Production area and livestock numbers

% change previous year

22

Economic overview


China’s food self-sufficiency policyMatthew Hyde and Faraz Syed

China’s agricultural sector is supported by a number of policies that are collectively designed to achieve a food self-sufficiency objective. The objective stems from the Chinese Government’s view that China’s food security is best maintained by meeting its domestic food demand with domestically produced food and minimising its reliance on international markets.

While food imports have increased significantly over the past decade, in general they remain only a small proportion of domestic consumption in China. This box provides an overview of some policies implemented in China that support food self-sufficiency. It analyses recent growth in imports of food to highlight how changes in trade might affect the self-sufficiency objective.

Under the food self-sufficiency objective the Chinese Government has a self-sufficiency target for a number of crops. The target aims to satisfy a minimum of 95 per cent of domestic consumption of rice, wheat, coarse grains, soybeans and potatoes through domestic production. While the target explicitly focuses only on these crops, production of other foods is generally supported by a range of other policies (Simon et al. 2014).

The 95 per cent self-sufficiency target on the specified crops, with the exception of soybeans, has largely been achieved since its establishment in 1996. China’s soybean imports grew significantly between 1996 and 2013 and in 2013 supplied 80 per cent of total domestic consumption. As a result, it appears that the Chinese Government deleted soybeans from its self-sufficiency target in late 2013, allowing the aggregate 95 per cent target to be attained for the remaining crops (Pumin 2013).

China’s self-sufficiency objective is especially important for international trade of staple foods, such as rice and pig meat. The international markets for these commodities are relatively thin and any significant change in Chinese import demand can create strong volatility in world prices. For example, China’s pig meat imports were close to 8 per cent of global trade in pig meat in 2012, but this was less than 1 per cent of its domestic consumption (OECD–FAO 2013).

Since 2009 China’s imports of many food commodities (including targeted crops such as wheat and corn) have increased. This has fuelled speculation that the self-sufficiency objective may be relaxed for some commodities or even abolished in the future (China Economic Review 2014). Coupled with this speculation are concerns about China’s ability to maintain self-sufficiency given production constraints facing its agricultural sector and the pace at which domestic demand for food is increasing. For example, land and water quality have become progressively degraded, challenging the agricultural sector to provide for a growing and increasingly affluent population. For cereal crops, such as wheat and rice, ABARES projects that demand growth between 2009 and 2050 will outpace production growth. The real value of Chinese cereals consumption is projected to increase by 52 per cent over that period, while the real value of domestic production of cereals is projected to rise by only 29 per cent (Hamshere et al. 2014).

continued ...

23

Economic overview


China’s food self-sufficiency policy continued

China’s policies on food

The self-sufficiency objective is one of the main reasons the Chinese Government intervenes in agricultural markets. Self-sufficiency is supported by domestic policies that encourage increased agricultural production, such as market price support, agricultural subsidies and rural land reforms. China’s trade policies also allow the government to maintain control over the import and export of important food products, such as rice and wheat.

China’s self-sufficiency policies tend to focus on grains, oilseeds and potatoes because of their direct or indirect importance to Chinese consumers. While wheat, rice and potatoes are directly consumed as food, corn and soybeans are mostly used as feed for the intensive livestock industries. The inclusion of corn and soybeans in the self-sufficiency target relates to their role as inputs to pig and poultry meat production, because of the importance of these meats to Chinese diets. Although soybeans are also consumed as food, their use as food constitutes only around 12 per cent of total soybean consumption in China.

Market price support

The primary tool used to encourage production of the targeted crops is a minimum purchase price in major producing regions. This policy has applied to rice and wheat since 2006 and was widened to include soybeans, canola and corn in 2008 (Gale 2013). Under this policy, producers are guaranteed a minimum price for their product. The price is set by the Chinese Government and maintained through purchases by state trading enterprises (STEs). The minimum prices have been increased each year since 2009 to protect producers from rising input costs and the appreciation of the yuan (OECD 2013).

China also operates a grain reserve system, where non-producing provinces are required to stockpile a minimum amount of wheat and rice as a means of controlling price volatility and ensuring supply. This programme was initially designed for rice and wheat but is also used for storage of corn and canola; until 2014 it was also used for soybeans. These reserves are released through an auction system as the availability of grains and oilseeds in the domestic market declines following harvest (Gale 2013). Since provincial reserves reportedly account for up to six months of consumption, the grain reserve programme allows the government to cover a shortfall or disruption to domestic production in the short term (OECD 2013). The programme reduces the need for imports.

A pig meat reserve programme in place since 2009 manages price volatility in the domestic pig meat market by controlling supply. Under this policy, government interventions in the pig meat market are based on movements in the pig meat-to-corn price ratio. The Chinese Government subsidises pig meat processors to stockpile frozen pig meat if its price is less than five times the price of corn. These stocks are released into the market only when the price of pig meat rises above nine times that of corn (Rabobank 2012). By managing the supply of pig meat on the domestic market, the Chinese Government constrains price fluctuations and is able to maintain incentives for pig meat production in spite of rising feed costs.

continued ...

24

Economic overview



Agricultural modernisation and rural reform

The Chinese Government’s stated modernisation policies aim to improve uptake of modern agricultural practices and commercial farming. These policies support the self-sufficiency objective by targeting both increased domestic food production and reduced production variability. Given that arable land in China is limited, and use of fertilisers and other inputs is high, productivity gains are necessary to increase production and meet future expected higher demand for food (Hamshere et al. 2014). Modern production systems, including increased mechanisation in grain production and larger farms, are considered the main sources of future agricultural productivity growth in China (World Bank 2014).

Many of China’s modernisation policies are based on subsidies for the purchase of inputs, such as tractors and improved seed varieties, and for encouraging modern practices such as improved livestock breeding (OECD 2013). The subsidies are designed to provide farmers with incentives to replace traditional labour-intensive and low-productivity methods of farming with modern production systems, which will increase production, decrease labour requirements and reduce production variability. Other subsidies, known as awards, are paid directly to county governments in areas that have high grain or pig meat production. These subsidies are aimed at encouraging public investment in both infrastructure and research to support production (Gale 2013).

Since 2004 the Chinese Government has implemented rural land reforms to, among other objectives, encourage the development of larger farms. These aim to improve the productivity of extensive cropping operations for the targeted crops, thereby supporting the self-sufficiency target. The average farm size in China is around 0.6 hectares, so productivity can be improved through economies of scale (FAO 2012). Because many producers work on land rented from village collectives, access to credit is limited. Producers’ ability to invest in expanded operations and modern equipment is constrained as a result. Changes to the land reform agenda announced in January 2014 are expected to strengthen the contractual rights of producers over rented farmland, allowing producers to use land to secure loans and simplifying land transfers to create larger enterprises (China Daily 2014).

Agricultural trade policy

China’s trade policy allows the government to maintain some control over the trade of agricultural products through the market operations of STEs and trade restrictions. Imports of agricultural products are restricted through either tariff rate quotas (TRQs) or import tariffs. Overall, China’s most-favoured nation applied tariffs on agricultural products average 14.8 per cent, compared with 8.6 per cent for non-agricultural products (WTO 2014). For target grains, such as wheat, rice and corn, imports are subject to a TRQ with an applied in-quota rate of just 1 per cent and quotas equivalent to between 2 per cent and 8 per cent of 2012 domestic production. A prohibitive out-of-quota tariff of 65 per cent is applied to imports of each of these grains. This effectively limits imports at the quota levels, thereby supporting the self-sufficiency target for these grains. Tariff reductions for target grains have not been included in any of China’s recently negotiated free trade agreements, including those with Australia, Pakistan and New Zealand.

continued ...

25

Economic overview



China maintains state trading to ensure stable supply and prices of important agricultural products and to safeguard its food security (WTO 2014). STEs have exclusive access under the TRQs to import wheat, rice and corn. The share of the imported volume allocated to the state traders is as high as 90 per cent for wheat. The STEs may allow imports to make up for a domestic shortfall or to build up public stockpiles. They can also restrict low-priced imports of products that threaten to put downward pressure on domestic producer prices. If low-priced imports enter the domestic market, they would have to make minimum price purchases of domestic product to support the domestic producer price, with those purchases going into stocks. STEs can also restrict exports through export quotas to ensure domestic availability.

Recent trends in Chinese agrifood imports

Since 2004 China’s imports of agrifood products (all agricultural output that can be used for food) have grown significantly. The real value of China’s imports of agrifood products increased by 275 per cent between 2004 and 2013, to US$99 billion (in 2013 US dollars). The fastest growing categories were dairy products (up by 847 per cent), fruit and vegetables (427 per cent), oils and oilseeds (254 per cent), meat and seafood (209 per cent) and cereals (84 per cent).

Imports of agrifood products, China

2013US$b

Other

Cereals

Dairy products

Fruit and vegetables

Meat and seafood

Note: Cereals includes wheat, rice and coarse grains.Source: United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database (UN Comtrade)

Oils and oilseeds

20

40

60

80

100

2013201220112010200920082007200620052004

The most rapid import growth occurred between 2009 and 2013, when the real value of China’s agrifood imports doubled. Changing diets and increasing incomes of Chinese consumers have led to an increase in not only the quantity but also the quality and diversity of food demanded (Hamshere et al. 2014). With consumption growth exceeding production growth for a range of commodities over this period, domestic prices have risen. Increased openness to trade by the Chinese Government through free trade agreements has allowed imported products to satisfy demand. As a result, imports of fruit, vegetables, meat, dairy products and seafood have increased significantly.

continued ...

26

Economic overview



Demand for imported feed grains and oilseeds has also increased as domestic livestock production has expanded in response to stronger demand for meat. While the self-sufficiency ratio for the targeted crops has remained above 95 per cent since 2009 (with the exception of soybeans), continued high domestic prices could challenge Chinese self-sufficiency in these crops in the future.

Cereals and oilseeds

China’s imports of wheat, rice and corn have all increased over the past five years despite record domestic production. While China had imported these grains sporadically in the past, it was a net exporter of all three before 2007. By 2012 it was a net importer of all three grains.

Soybeans are the main oilseed imported into China. Since 2004 imports of soybeans have grown significantly, while domestic production has declined. In 2013 imports of soybeans totalled US$38 billion, or around 42 per cent of total agrifood imports by value.

Rice is a staple food in the Chinese diet. Although rice imports account for a small proportion of domestic consumption (around 2 per cent a year), China imported 3.4 million tonnes of rice in 2013. Vietnam was the largest supplier to China in that year, accounting for 59 per cent of rice imports, followed by Thailand (22 per cent).

Over the past five years the United States has supplied a significant share of China’s imports of corn, wheat and soybeans. In 2013 the United States supplied 90 per cent of China’s corn imports, 68 per cent of wheat imports and 35 per cent of soybean imports. However, in October 2013 China prohibited imports of MIR162 corn, a genetically-modified variety that is widely used in the United States. As a result, between January and August 2014, exports of US corn to China were around 86 per cent lower than for the same period in 2013. China made up for the shortfall through domestic production and increased imports from Ukraine.

Net trade in selected cereals, China

RiceWheat

Corn

2013US$b

Source: United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database (UN Comtrade)

–3

–2

–1

1

2

3Net exports

Net im

ports

2013201220112010200920082007200620052004

continued ...

27

Economic overview



Grain imports have risen since 2009 because of rising domestic demand and the resulting increase in domestic prices. Domestic prices have also risen in response to increases in support prices (Gale 2013). For those crops that undergo additional processing or are used as feed (such as rice, corn and soybeans), imported product is often the lowest cost option. As inputs to further processing, lower-priced imports allow processors to retain their margins.

For rice and wheat, the recent growth in imports is unlikely to be maintained over the long term given the role of state trading in these commodities. Wheat imported over the past two years has principally been a high-quality product for blending with domestic grain for milling (Price 2014). In 2011 domestic prices for wheat were higher than the support price, so the STEs made no domestic wheat purchases at the support price. This may have contributed to the rise in imported wheat in 2012 and 2013 to support the reserve system (USDA–FAS 2014). This is comparable to 2004, when China imported a significant volume of wheat to replenish its domestic stockpiles, but this did not lead to a long-term increase in wheat imports.

For corn and soybeans, import growth is likely to continue as long as domestic feed prices remain high. Increased demand for meat and livestock products, combined with rising support prices, have put upward pressure on domestic feed grain prices despite record corn production. Because land remains limited, any further rise in production of corn and soybeans remains unlikely without either a reduction in the area planted to wheat and rice (grains for which relative returns exceed those of corn and soybeans because of higher support prices) or substantial productivity gains.

Despite the increase in grain and oilseed imports, the volume of imports relative to domestic consumption remains small for rice, wheat and corn. In 2013–14 China’s self-sufficiency ratios were around 99 per cent for corn, 98 per cent for rice and 97 per cent for wheat. In contrast, the self-sufficiency ratio for soybeans was around 26 per cent.

continued ...

Self-sufficiency ratios for selected crops, China

Year

Rice Wheat Corn SoybeansTotal including

soybeansTotal excluding

soybeans

% % % % % %

2004–05 100 96 104 44 96 100

2005–06 100 100 102 43 96 101

2006–07 101 102 103 42 96 102

2007–08 101 102 100 29 94 101

2008–09 100 100 100 31 93 100

2009–10 100 100 99 31 92 100

2010–11 100 100 100 35 92 100

2011–12 99 99 98 33 90 99

2012–13 99 99 99 33 91 99

2013–14 98 97 99 26 89 98

Note: Self-sufficiency ratios are calculated as net exports divided by domestic disappearance, based on OECD–FAO 2013. Source: United States Department of Agriculture Production, Supply and Distribution Database

28

Economic overview



Meat and dairy products

The value of China’s imports of meat and dairy products increased almost tenfold between 2004 and 2013 (in 2013 US dollars). This was driven by large increases in China’s imports of beef, sheep meat and dairy products. Production during this period grew slightly but was well below the rate of consumption.

In 2013 Australia supplied most of China’s beef imports by value (57 per cent), and it was the second-largest supplier of sheep meat (39 per cent). New Zealand supplied most of China’s imports of sheep meat (57 per cent) and dairy products (63 per cent).The major suppliers of pig meat were the United States (21 per cent) and Germany (19 per cent). Poultry imports were sourced mainly from Brazil (48 per cent) and the United States (42 per cent).

Meat and livestock products are not supported to the same extent as grains and oilseeds, and different factors have contributed to import growth. While the traditional source of protein in China is pig meat, income growth and urbanisation have contributed to increased demand for meat and dairy products. Food safety concerns, such as those highlighted by the melamine in baby formula scandal, have also contributed to increased consumer preference for imports.

Imports of meat and dairy products, China

2013US$b

Sheep meat

Poultry

Pig meat

Beef

Dairy products

Note: Dairy products include fresh milk, milk powders and cheese.Source: United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database (UN Comtrade)

2

4

6

8

10

2013201220112010200920082007200620052004

Another important factor influencing the rise in meat imports is high domestic production costs. As the support prices of soybeans and corn have been increased, livestock producers have faced higher feed costs. Dairy supply has been affected by consumer concerns over food safety, which led to additional regulations being imposed on dairy producers and forced many small producers to exit the industry. Resulting higher prices for meat and dairy products have driven demand for imported products.

China’s meat imports remain small relative to domestic consumption and it has maintained a high level of self-sufficiency in these products. However, self-sufficiency rates for beef and dairy products have been trending downwards over the past two years, as imports have increased significantly. Without considerable productivity growth in these industries, imports are likely to continue to grow.

continued ...

29

Economic overview



Self-sufficiency ratios for selected meat and livestock products, China

Year

Pig meat Beef PoultryDairy

products

% % % %

2004–05 101 101 101 100

2005–06 101 101 101 100

2006–07 101 101 100 100

2007–08 100 101 99 100

2008–09 99 101 99 100

2009–10 100 100 99 99

2010–11 100 100 101 99

2011–12 99 100 101 99

2012–13 99 99 101 98

2013–14 99 95 101 97

Note: Self-sufficiency ratios are calculated as net exports divided by domestic disappearance, based on OECD–FAO 2013. Source: United States Department of Agriculture Production, Supply and Distribution Database

The future of China’s self-sufficiency

China’s self-sufficiency objective is likely to be challenged in the future. Increasing demand for a wider variety of food products will put pressure on the land and water resources required for agricultural production. The policy response to these factors will determine whether China is able to maintain self-sufficiency in the long term.

China’s comparative advantage in agricultural production is in labour-intensive products, such as horticulture and intensive livestock production, rather than extensive cropping. This is because of relatively low rural labour costs and land constraints stemming from the ongoing conversion of arable land to urban development. The result is that products China views as most important, such as rice and wheat, are not those that it can produce most efficiently. Returns to producers for these products are, in the absence of support prices, relatively low.

As China becomes increasingly urbanised, demand for meat is projected to increase while demand for staple grains (such as rice) is projected to decrease (Hamshere et al. 2014). Higher meat demand will necessitate more imports of either meat for consumption or feed grains to support intensive livestock production. Because of the importance of pig meat to the Chinese diet, and a consumer preference for fresh over frozen product, it is unlikely that China would prioritise imports of pig meat (Rabobank 2012).

Recent policy changes have attempted to reduce both food inflation and imports. Support prices for corn and wheat were not increased in 2014–15, after having been increased each year since 2008–09. A pilot target price mechanism was also proposed in early 2014 to replace minimum price purchases for soybeans in key provinces. To maintain producer support, the government will instead pay subsidies to producers if the domestic price falls below the set target, which will allow the domestic price to align with the world price. For soybeans, this policy is likely to reduce the domestic price. This will make domestic supplies more appealing to processors and reduce incentive to import.

continued ...

30

Economic overview



It is unlikely China will be able to maintain self-sufficiency on all major agrifood commodities. Recent experience has shown that productivity growth in the target crops has not raised production enough to satisfy demand growth. Rice, wheat and pig meat are likely to remain the focus of China’s self-sufficiency policy, but resource constraints will challenge its ability to maintain self-sufficiency—especially for products like beef, sheep meat, soybeans and feed grains. Therefore, rising import trends are likely to continue.

References

China Daily 2014, ‘Back up rural land reform’, China Daily, 23 January, available at chinadaily.com.cn/opinion/2014-01/23/content_17252504.htm.

China Economic Review 2014, ‘Has China really ditched its grain self-sufficiency policy?’ China Economic Review, 19 February, available at chinaeconomicreview.com/china-grain-rice-food-imports-self20sufficiency-policy-update.

FAO 2012, Agriculture and trade policy background note: People’s Republic of China, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, available at fao.org/economic/est/est-events-new/wtomeeting/en.

Gale, F 2013, Growth and evolution in China’s agricultural support policies, United States Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service, Washington DC, available at ers.usda.gov/publications/err-economic-research-report/err153.aspx.

Hamshere, P, Sheng, Y, Moir, B, Syed, F & Gunning-Trant, C 2014, ‘What China wants: analysis of China’s food demand to 2050’, paper presented at 44th ABARES Outlook conference, Canberra, 4–5 March, available at data.daff.gov.au/data/warehouse/9aat/2014/WhatChinaWants/AnalysisChinaFoodDemandTo2050_v.1.0.0.pdf (pdf 1.2mb).

OECD 2013, ‘China’, in Agricultural policy monitoring and evaluation 2013, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris, available at oecd-ilibrary.org/agriculture-and-food/agricultural-policy-monitoring-and-evaluation-2013_agr_pol-2013-en.

OECD–FAO 2013, ‘Feeding China: prospects and challenges in the next decade’, in OECD–FAO Agricultural outlook 2013, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Paris, available at oecd-ilibrary.org/agriculture-and-food/oecd-fao-agricultural-outlook-2013/feeding-china-prospects-and-challenges-in-the-next-decade_agr_outlook-2013-5-en.

Price, C 2014, ‘Wheat’, in Agricultural commodities: June quarter 2014, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, Canberra, available at agriculture.gov.au/abares/publications/display?url=http://143.188.17.20/anrdl/DAFFService/display.php?fid=pb_agcomd9abcc004201406_11a.xml.

Pumin, Y 2013, ‘Feeding the future: new challenges in ensuring food security require new solutions’, Beijing Review, 2 January, available at bjreview.com.cn/nation/txt/2013-12/30/content_587760.htm.

continued ...

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/opinion/2014-01/23/content_17252504.htm

http://www.chinaeconomicreview.com/china-grain-rice-food-imports-self sufficiency-policy-update

http://www.chinaeconomicreview.com/china-grain-rice-food-imports-self sufficiency-policy-update

http://www.fao.org/economic/est/est-events-new/wtomeeting/en/

http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/err-economic-research-report/err153.aspx

http://data.daff.gov.au/data/warehouse/9aat/2014/WhatChinaWants/AnalysisChinaFoodDemandTo2050_v.1.0.0.pdf



http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/agriculture-and-food/agricultural-policy-monitoring-and-evaluation-2013_agr_pol-2013-en



http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/agriculture-and-food/oecd-fao-agricultural-outlook-2013/feeding-china-prospects-and-challenges-in-the-next-decade_agr_outlook-2013-5-en

http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/agriculture-and-food/oecd-fao-agricultural-outlook-2013/feeding-china-prospects-and-challenges-in-the-next-decade_agr_outlook-2013-5-en

http://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/publications/display?url=http://143.188.17.20/anrdl/DAFFService/display.php?fid=pb_agcomd9abcc004201406_11a.xml

http://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/publications/display?url=http://143.188.17.20/anrdl/DAFFService/display.php?fid=pb_agcomd9abcc004201406_11a.xml

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Economic overview



Rabobank 2012, Industrialisation of China’s pork supply chain, Rabobank, Netherlands, September, available at farminguk.com/KnowledgeCentre/Downloads/Rabobank-China-Pig meat-Report_213.html (pdf 503kb).

Simon, K, O’Conor, G, Christopher, M & Brown, M 2014, ‘Facing grain shortfalls, China asserts self-sufficiency policy’, China Brief, vol. 14, no. 7, available at jamestown.org/programs/chinabrief/single/?tx_ttnews5Btt_news5D=42210&tx_ttnews5BbackPid5D=758&no_cache=1.

USDA–FAS 2014, ‘China, Peoples Republic of—grain and feed annual’, GAIN Report, no. 14016, 2 April, Foreign Agricultural Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Washington DC, available at gain.fas.usda.gov/Recent%20GAIN%20Publications/Grain%20and%20Feed%20Annual_Beijing_China%20-%20Peoples%20Republic%20of_4-2-2014.pdf (pdf 869kb).

World Bank 2014, China economic update, June, Beijing, available at worldbank.org/en/country/china/publication/china-economic-update-june-2014.

WTO 2014, Trade policy review: China, World Trade Organization, Geneva, available at wto.org/english/tratop_e/tpr_e/tp400_e.htm.

http://www.farminguk.com/KnowledgeCentre/Downloads/Rabobank-China-Pork-Report_213.html

http://www.farminguk.com/KnowledgeCentre/Downloads/Rabobank-China-Pork-Report_213.html

http://www.jamestown.org/programs/chinabrief/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=42210&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=758&no_cache=1

http://www.jamestown.org/programs/chinabrief/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=42210&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=758&no_cache=1

http://gain.fas.usda.gov/Recent GAIN Publications/Grain and Feed Annual_Beijing_China - Peoples Republic of_4-2-2014.pdf



http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/china/publication/china-economic-update-june-2014

http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/china/publication/china-economic-update-june-2014

http://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/tpr_e/tp400_e.htm

32

Economic overview


33

Economic overview


AgricultureCrops


• The world wheat indicator price (US no. 2 hard red winter, fob Gulf) is forecast to average US$285 a tonne in 2014–15, compared with US$317 a tonne in 2013–14.

• World wheat supply is forecast to increase in 2014–15, reflecting higher opening stocks and a forecast increase in world production.

• World wheat trade is forecast to decline in 2014–15, largely reflecting an expected reduction of imports into China following an increase in its domestic production and improved crop quality.

Wheat indicator price lower in 2014–15, with increased world supplyThe world wheat indicator price (US no. 2 hard red winter, fob Gulf) is forecast to average US$285 a tonne in 2014–15, compared with US$317 a tonne in 2013–14. The lower price in 2014–15 reflects a forecast increase in world supply, which is expected to result from higher opening stocks and a marginal rise in world production. However, downward pressure on the world indicator price has been reduced by a fall in hard red winter wheat supplies in the United States and quality issues with the 2014–15 harvest in other major wheat producing countries, including France and Ukraine.

World wheat supply and price

Production

Opening stocks

Mt2014–15US$/t

US no. 2 hard red winter, fob Gulf(right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

200

400

600

800

1 000

100

200

300

400

500

2014–15f

2011–12

2008–09

2005–06

2002–03

1999–2000

1996–97

WheatChristopher Price

35

Wheat


World production to riseWorld wheat production is forecast to increase by 1 per cent in 2014–15 to 718 million tonnes, largely reflecting increases in the European Union and the Black Sea region (Russian Federation, Ukraine and Kazakhstan). However, production is expected to be lower in the United States, Canada and Australia. In 2013–14 world wheat production increased by 9 per cent to 713 million tonnes.

Wheat production changes, 2014–15

Volume change

Percentage change(right axis)

Mt %

–10

–5

0

5

10

15

–20

–10

0

10

20

30

rest ofworld

India

China

Canada

Australia

United States

Argentina

Black Sea region

EuropeanUnion

Wheat production in the European Union is estimated to have risen by 8 per cent in 2014–15 to 155 million tonnes, reflecting record harvested area and a 4 per cent increase in average yield. Except for parts of southern Europe, seasonal conditions were favourable across the region. However, heavy rainfall during the harvest adversely affected crop quality in parts of central and northern Europe.

Wheat production in the Black Sea region is estimated to have increased by 9 per cent in 2014–15 to 96 million tonnes. Seasonal conditions in the Russian Federation were favourable for both winter and spring wheat production, resulting in a substantial supply of relatively high-quality wheat. Yields in Ukraine also benefited from favourable seasonal conditions and production increased significantly, despite a fall in harvested area. However, the milling wheat share of the total Ukraine wheat crop in 2014–15 was lower than in the previous year. In contrast, production in Kazakhstan is estimated to have declined by 12 per cent in 2014–15. Crops were adversely affected by dry conditions for much of the season and cold and snowy weather during harvest.

In Argentina, wheat production is forecast to increase by 14 per cent in 2014–15 to around 12 million tonnes. The forecast rise reflects an increase in planted area in response to higher expected returns compared with production alternatives. Early seasonal conditions were generally favourable, but moisture deficiencies developed in some northern growing regions and some southern growing regions have been affected by excessive moisture.

36

Wheat


Wheat production in the United States is estimated to have decreased by 5 per cent in 2014–15 to 55 million tonnes. Winter wheat production is estimated to have fallen by 11 per cent, largely reflecting unfavourable seasonal conditions in the major hard red winter wheat producing areas and a reduction in planted area for soft red winter wheat. Spring wheat production is estimated to have increased by 9 per cent, driven by an increase in planted area. Wet weather during harvest adversely affected the quality of the spring wheat crop.

After record production in Canada in 2013–14, wheat production is estimated to have fallen by 27 per cent in 2014–15 to 28 million tonnes. This estimated decline reflects a reduction in planted area, a higher abandonment rate and a fall in yields. Excessive rainfall in some growing regions adversely affected crop quality, while dry conditions and frosts affected crops in other areas.

Wheat production in 2014–15 is estimated to have increased by 3 per cent in both China (to 126 million tonnes) and India (to 96 million tonnes). The estimated rises largely reflect higher yields in China and a larger area planted to wheat in India. The quality of the wheat crop in China is generally better than in 2013–14, when quality was adversely affected by frost damage and excessive rainfall during harvesting.

Northern hemisphere winter wheat in 2015–16Planting of the 2015–16 winter wheat crop in the northern hemisphere has largely been completed. Planted area increased slightly and conditions were generally favourable in most countries at the time of planting. However, conditions in the Black Sea region have raised concerns. Several months of dry conditions have hindered crop establishment in parts of the Russian Federation and Ukraine. Additionally, unseasonal cold weather resulted in crops entering dormancy early in some areas. Concerns have been raised about the impact of dry and cold conditions in the United States, but the share of the crop rated as being in good or excellent condition is still higher than the 10-year average for this time of the season.

Wheat consumption to rise in 2014–15World consumption of wheat is forecast to rise by 2 per cent in 2014–15 to 711 million tonnes. This reflects increases in both human consumption of wheat and use of wheat for feed and industrial purposes.

Human consumption accounts for around 70 per cent of total wheat use, and it is forecast to increase by almost 2 per cent in 2014–15. This forecast rate of increase largely reflects world population growth. However, per person consumption is increasing in some developing countries (especially in Asia) but falling in many developed countries.

Use of wheat for feed is forecast to increase by 7 per cent in 2014–15, despite significant increases in global supplies of alternative feed grains. Feed use of wheat in the European Union, which accounts for more than one-third of world feed wheat consumption, is expected to increase by 17 per cent. This expected rise reflects an increase in supply of feed wheat in the European Union because of higher production and the extent of quality downgrades. In the United States, use of wheat for feed is forecast to fall significantly because of plentiful supplies of corn at lower prices.

37

Wheat


Changes in use of wheat for feed, 2014–15

Volume change

Percentage change(right axis)

Mt %UnitedStates

rest ofworld

Black Searegion

EuropeanUnion

–4

–2

0

2

4

6

8

10

–20

–10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Trade to decrease, led by a fall in exports to ChinaWorld trade in wheat is forecast to decrease by 2 per cent in 2014–15 to 152 million tonnes. The forecast decline largely reflects expected lower imports into China, where increases in domestic production and crop quality are expected to reduce demand for imported milling grade wheat. Imports by Iran, Morocco and Brazil are also expected to decline in 2014–15, reflecting increases in domestic supplies.

The most significant decline in wheat exports in 2014–15 is expected to be from the United States, with exports forecast to fall by 21 per cent. This reflects a fall in domestic supplies, together with lower import demand from China and Brazil and higher competition from other exporters, especially the Black Sea region.

Exports from Canada are forecast to decrease by 4 per cent in 2014–15, despite a 27 per cent fall in production. The forecast volume of exports is expected to come from a drawdown of stocks. Opening stocks for the current season in Canada were at a 20-year high.

Despite record wheat production, exports from the European Union are forecast to fall by 10 per cent in 2014–15, albeit from the record shipments in 2013–14. The forecast decline reflects lower crop quality and an expected increase in domestic use of feed wheat. EU closing stocks in 2014–15 are expected to increase.

Wheat exports from the Black Sea region are forecast to increase by 5 per cent in 2014–15 to 38 million tonnes. However, exports from Kazakhstan are forecast to decline in 2014–15 because of lower production.

In Argentina, wheat export shipments are forecast to be over 6 million tonnes in 2014–15, compared with less than 3 million tonnes in the previous year. This forecast increase reflects higher opening stocks and production but is contingent on sufficient export permits being issued. At this forecast level, shipments in 2014–15 would still be below the 10-year average to 2013–14 of over 8 million tonnes.

38

Wheat


Higher closing stocks in 2014–15, particularly in the European UnionWorld closing stocks of wheat are forecast to rise by 4 per cent in 2014–15 to 192 million tonnes, following an increase of 9 per cent in 2013–14. The stocks-to-use ratio is expected to rise by around half a percentage point to 27 per cent.

Combined closing stocks in the major exporting countries are forecast to rise by 13 per cent in 2014–15 to 62 million tonnes, which is in line with the 10-year average to 2013–14. The major contributor is expected to be the European Union, with a forecast rise of 82 per cent.

World wheat closing stocks

Rest of world

Major exporters a

Mt %

Stocks-to-use ratio(right axis)

a Argentina, Australia, the Black Sea region, Canada, the European Union and the United States. f ABARES forecast.

10

20

30

40

50

50

100

150

200

250

2014–15f

2011–12

2008–09

2005–06

2002–03

1999–2000

1996–97

AustraliaLower wheat production in 2014–15Australian wheat production is forecast to decrease by 14 per cent in 2014–15 to around 23 million tonnes. The forecast decline in production is expected to be driven by a 16 per cent fall in the average yield. Yields are expected to decline in all major producing states. For Western Australia and South Australia, the forecast declines are from significantly above average yields in 2013–14.

39

Wheat


Australian wheat production

Queensland

Victoria

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

South Australia

New South WalesWestern Australia

2014–15f

2011–12

2008–09

2005–06

2002–03

1999–2000

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Exports to fall in 2014–15The volume of Australian wheat exports is forecast to decline by 7 per cent in 2014–15 to 17 million tonnes. The effect of lower production in 2014–15 is expected to be partially offset by a significant quantity of wheat harvested in the 2013–14 season being available for export in 2014–15. Almost 4 million tonnes of wheat was exported during the first quarter of 2014–15, before the beginning of the 2014–15 harvest.

The value of Australian wheat exports is forecast to decline by 10 per cent in 2014–15 to around $5.5 billion, largely reflecting the expected fall in export shipments. The average export price for Australian wheat is also expected to be lower in 2014–15, reflecting plentiful world supplies.

Australian wheat exports

Export volume

Export value(right axis)

Mt2014–15$b

f ABARES forecast.

2

4

6

8

10

5

10

15

20

25

2014–15f

2011–12

2008–09

2005–06

2002–03

1999–2000

40

Wheat


Wheat outlook

unit 2012–13 2013–14 s 2014–15 f % changeunit 2012 13 2013 14 s 2014 15 f % changeWorldP d ti Mt 655 713 718 0 8WorldProduction Mt 655 713 718 0.8– China Mt 121 122 126 3.1– European Union Mt 132 143 155 8.2 European Union Mt 132 143 155 8.2– India Mt 95 94 96 2.6– India Mt 95 94 96 2.6– Russian Federation Mt 38 52 59 13 8– Russian Federation Mt 38 52 59 13.8United States Mt 61 58 55 5 1– United States Mt 61 58 55 –5.1

C iConsumption Mt 677 697 711 2.1p– human Mt 466 476 484 1.7 human Mt 466 476 484 1.7– feed Mt 133 131 141 7.2– feed Mt 133 131 141 7.2Closing stocks Mt 169 185 192 3 5Closing stocks Mt 169 185 192 3.5Stocks to use ratio % 25 27 27Stocks‐to‐use ratio % 25 27 27T d M 141 155 152 2 3Trade Mt 141 155 152 –2.3Exports ap– Argentina Mt 4 3 6 155.0 Argentina Mt 4 3 6 155.0– Australia b Mt 21 18 17 –7 3– Australia b Mt 21 18 17 –7.3– Canada Mt 19 24 23 3 6– Canada Mt 19 24 23 –3.6E U i– European Union Mt 23 33 29 –10.3

kh– Kazakhstan Mt 7 8 6 –31.8Mt 7 8 6 31.8– Russian Federation Mt 11 19 23 21.9 Russian Federation Mt 11 19 23 21.9– Ukraine Mt 7 10 10 5 6– Ukraine Mt 7 10 10 5.6– United States Mt 28 32 25 21 4– United States Mt 28 32 25 –21.4

US$/ 348 317 285 10 2Price c US$/t 348 317 285 –10.2AustraliaArea ’000 ha 12 979 13 511 13 836 2.4AustraliaArea 000 ha 12 979 13 511 13 836 2.4Production kt 22 856 27 009 23 222 –14 0Production kt 22 856 27 009 23 222 –14.0Exports b kt 21 265 18 336 16 993 7 3Exports b kt 21 265 18 336 16 993 –7.3

l $– value A$m 6 776 6 103 5 474 –10.3APW 10 net pool return A$/t 326 336 317 –5.7APW 10 net pool return A$/t 326 336 317 5.7a Local marketing years b July–June years c US no 2 hard red winter fob Gulf July–Junea Local marketing years. b July–June years. c US no. 2 hard red winter, fob Gulf, July–June. f ABARES f t ABARES ti tf ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; International Grains Council; ;

41ABARESAgricultural commodities – vol. 4 no. 4 • December quarter 2014

• World coarse grains prices are forecast to decline in 2014–15, largely reflecting a forecast increase in stocks.

• World corn production is forecast to be largely unchanged in 2014–15 at 990 million tonnes.

• World barley production is forecast to fall by 5 per cent in 2014–15 to 138 million tonnes.

• Australian coarse grains production is forecast to fall by 16 per cent in 2014–15 to be 10.5 million tonnes, reflecting a decline in planted area and average yields.

• Australian coarse grains prices are forecast to average higher in 2014–15, because of a decline in domestic supply.

World indicator prices to fall as supply increasesThe world coarse grains indicator price (US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf) is forecast to average 18 per cent lower in 2014–15 at US$180 a tonne. The world indicator price for barley (France feed barley, fob Rouen) is forecast to average 15 per cent lower in 2014–15 at US$205 a tonne. The forecast falls in coarse grains prices mainly reflect an expected increase in global stocks for the second successive year.

World coarse grains prices

2014–15US$/t

France feed barley, fob Rouen

US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf

f ABARES forecast.

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2014–15f

2011–12

2008–09

2005–06

2002–03

Coarse grainsClay Mifsud

42

Coarse grains


From July to November 2014 US corn prices averaged $173 a tonne, 28 per cent lower than in the same period the previous year. Prices moved steadily lower from July to September 2014, as expectations of a record corn crop in the United States grew. Delays in the harvest resulted in prices rising during October and early November. However, as the harvest progressed towards completion, prices again declined in response to increased supply. With the US harvest now largely complete, and US corn supplies plentiful, corn prices are expected to average lower over the remainder of 2014–15 compared with the same period a year earlier. In response to lower prices, the use of corn in livestock feed is expected to increase and put downward pressure on the prices of other feed grains.

World production slightly lower than record highsWorld coarse grains production is forecast to fall by 1 per cent in 2014–15 to 1.27 billion tonnes, from the record production achieved in 2013–14. If realised, this would be the second highest level of production on record.

World coarse grains production

Commodity2012–13

Mt2013–14s

Mt2014–15f

Mt

Year-on-year change from 2013–14

to 2014–15 (%)

Corn 868 989 990 0

Barley 130 145 138 –5

Grain sorghum 58 60 62 3

Oats 21 24 22 –8

Other 59 62 59 –5

Total 1 136 1 280 1 271 –1

f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.

World corn production largely unchangedWorld corn production is forecast to be largely unchanged in 2014–15 at around 990 million tonnes. Forecast increases in production in the United States and the European Union are expected to be offset by forecast declines in production in China, Latin America and the Black Sea region.

Corn production in the United States is forecast to increase by 5 per cent in 2014–15 to 372 million tonnes, driven by an estimated 10 per cent increase in the average yield to a record 11 tonnes a hectare. The estimated yield increase reflects relatively favourable seasonal conditions. However, the harvested area is estimated to have fallen by 5 per cent to 34.8 million hectares.

In the European Union, corn production is forecast to increase by 14 per cent in 2014–15 to 74 million tonnes. This reflects a 17 per cent increase in the average yield to 7.7 tonnes a hectare as a result of favourable seasonal conditions.

Drier than average seasonal conditions in China have resulted in a downward revision of forecast corn production in 2014–15, to around 215 million tonnes (a decline of 2 per cent from the previous season). In the provinces of Jilin, Inner Mongolia, Henan and Liaoning, which typically account for around one-third of China’s corn production, unfavourable seasonal conditions resulted in some crop losses.

43

Coarse grains


In the Black Sea region, corn production is forecast to decline by 9 per cent to 42 million tonnes, largely reflecting a decline in the average yield in Ukraine.

Corn production in Latin America is forecast to fall by 6 per cent in 2014–15 to 108 million tonnes, driven by a forecast 4 per cent fall in area to 22 million hectares. The planted area is expected to decline as producers respond to the recent significant fall in corn prices by switching land from corn to soybean production. In Brazil and Argentina, corn production is forecast to fall by 5 per cent and 8 per cent to 75 million tonnes and 23 million tonnes, respectively.

Lower barley production as yields declineWorld barley production is forecast to fall by 5 per cent in 2014–15 to 138 million tonnes, driven by forecast falls in production in Canada, Australia and Turkey. In Canada, yields are forecast to return to average from above average yields last year and, in Australia and Turkey, unfavourable seasonal conditions adversely affected crop development and resulted in lower yields. Production is forecast to increase in the Black Sea region.

World’s largest barley producers

Mt


2014–15f

2013–14s

10

20

30

40

50

60

Argentina

United States

Turkey

Canada

Australia

Ukraine

RussianFederation

EuropeanUnion

Consumption to rise but lower than productionWorld coarse grains consumption is forecast to increase by 2 per cent in 2014–15 to 1.25 billion tonnes, driven by an expected increase in world corn consumption.

World coarse grains consumption

Commodity2012–13

Mt2013–14s

Mt2014–15f

Mt

Year-on-year change from 2013–14

to 2014–15 (%)

Corn 869 946 970 3

Barley 132 141 139 –1

Grain sorghum 59 58 61 5

Oats 22 23 23 0

Other 58 58 58 0

Total 1 140 1 226 1 251 2


44

Coarse grains


Corn consumption to rise on higher feed useWorld corn consumption is forecast to increase by 3 per cent in 2014–15 to 970 million tonnes. Use of corn as feed is forecast to increase by 4 per cent to 598 million tonnes, while industrial use of corn is expected to remain largely unchanged at 372 million tonnes.

Corn consumption in the United States is forecast to increase by 3 per cent in 2014–15 to 300 million tonnes, reflecting an increase in feed demand. The recent decline in corn prices is expected to lead to the substitution of corn for other grains in livestock feed.

Industrial use of corn in the United States is expected to be largely unchanged in 2014–15 at 160 million tonnes. Ethanol accounts for nearly all the industrial use of corn in the United States and its demand is expected to remain largely unchanged in 2014–15. According to the US Energy Information Administration, ethanol now constitutes 10 per cent of the total US gasoline supply. However, only around 5 per cent of vehicles in the United States are compatible with ethanol blends of more than 10 per cent. This is expected to limit further increases in demand for ethanol in gasoline blending.

Corn consumption in China is forecast to increase by 3 per cent in 2014–15 to 218 million tonnes. Use of corn for feed is forecast to increase by 4 per cent to 158 million tonnes, driven by an expected increase in domestic demand for pig and poultry meat. Use of corn for food, seed and industrial purposes is forecast to rise by 3 per cent to 60 million tonnes.

Feed use of corn

Mt


2014–15f

2013–14s

Republic of Korea

Ukraine

India

Japan

Egypt

Mexico

Brazil

EuropeanUnion

United States

China

30

60

90

120

150

180

45

Coarse grains


Lower feed barley consumptionWorld barley consumption is forecast to fall by 2 per cent in 2014–15 to 139 million tonnes, reflecting a 4 per cent fall in the use of barley for feed to 93 million tonnes, as a result of an increase in the barley-to-corn price ratio. The use of barley for food, seed and industrial purposes is forecast to rise by 3 per cent to 46 million tonnes, reflecting growing demand in China and Brazil for barley malt for use in the manufacture of beer.

Feed use of barley

Mt


2014–15f

2013–14s

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Kazakhstan

Australia

China

Ukraine

Iran

Turkey

Canada

Saudi Arabia

RussianFederation

EuropeanUnion

World trade to decline in 2014–15World trade in coarse grains is forecast to fall by 9 per cent in 2014–15 to 148 million tonnes, largely reflecting significantly lower imports into the European Union and lower imports into other major import markets, including China and Saudi Arabia.

Largest coarse grain importers

Mt


2014–15f

2013–14s

Algeria

Colombia

EuropeanUnion

Iran

Egypt

Republic of Korea

SaudiArabia

Mexico

China

Japan

5

10

15

20

46

Coarse grains


CornWorld trade in corn is forecast to fall by 5 per cent in 2014–15 to 118 million tonnes, largely reflecting an expected fall in imports into the European Union. The volume of corn imported into the Republic of Korea and Egypt is also forecast to decline. These falls are expected to offset small increases in imports into Japan and Saudi Arabia.

Corn imports into the European Union are forecast to fall by 50 per cent in 2014–15 to 8 million tonnes, reflecting an expected increase in domestic supply of feed grains. The expected increase in domestic supply reflects forecast higher domestic corn production and an increase in the supply of feed wheat.

The forecast decline in corn imports into the European Union is expected to result in increased competition among corn exporting countries in other markets and put downward pressure on prices. Ukraine, Brazil and Argentina were the primary suppliers of corn to the European Union over the five years to 2013–14.

BarleyWorld trade in barley is forecast to decline by 5 per cent to 22 million tonnes. In Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest barley importer, imports are forecast to fall by 16 per cent to 8 million tonnes as corn is increasingly used as livestock feed instead of barley. In China, the world’s second largest barley importer, imports are forecast to remain relatively high at around 4.8 million tonnes. This reflects low domestic production and growing demand for barley malt for use in the production of beer.

Closing stocks highest in 15 yearsWorld closing stocks of coarse grains are forecast to increase by 9 per cent in 2014–15 to 238 million tonnes. This is because world production is expected to exceed world consumption in 2014–15 by 20 million tonnes. The stocks-to-use ratio is forecast to rise to 19 per cent.

World coarse grains closing stocks

Mt

Other

Oats

Grain sorghum

Barley

Corn

50

100

150

200

250

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

f ABARES forecast.

47

Coarse grains


Corn stocks to increaseWorld closing stocks of corn are forecast to increase by 12 per cent in 2014–15 to 193 million tonnes. The largest increase is forecast in the United States, where stocks are forecast to rise by 68 per cent to 53 million tonnes.

Barley stocks to fallWorld closing stocks of barley are forecast to fall by 4 per cent in 2014–15 to 24 million tonnes. This reflects a forecast fall in stocks in the European Union, Canada, Saudi Arabia and Latin America.

AustraliaLower production in 2014–15Australian production of coarse grains is forecast to fall by 16 per cent in 2014–15 to 10.5 million tonnes, largely reflecting an expected 22 per cent decline in barley production to around 7.4 million tonnes. The forecast fall in barley production reflects a decline in area planted and expected lower average yields. Grain sorghum production is forecast to increase by 21 per cent to 1.3 million tonnes. This forecast is dependent on summer cropping regions receiving timely rainfall during the remainder of the summer crop season.

Coarse grains production, Australia

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

Other

MaizeOats

Grain sorghumBarley

3

6

9

12

15

Exports to fall in 2014–15The volume of total coarse grains exports is forecast to fall by 30 per cent in 2014–15 to 5.6 million tonnes. Exports of barley and grain sorghum are both expected to fall. The value of total coarse grains exports is forecast to fall by 36 per cent to $1.6 billion, reflecting forecast declines in export shipments and average export prices.

48

Coarse grains


Coarse grains exports, Australia

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

Other

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

OatsGrain sorghum

Barley (including grainequivalent of malt)

2

4

6

8

10

BarleyAustralian barley exports are forecast to fall by 30 per cent in 2014–15 to 5 million tonnes. China, Saudi Arabia and Japan are forecast to remain the three largest export markets for barley and, in aggregate, are expected to account for around 90 per cent of barley exports in 2014–15.

Australian barley exports to China are forecast to remain strong in 2014–15 at around 2.8 million tonnes, which reflects expected strong demand for malt for use in the manufacture of beer. Australia accounted for more than 90 per cent of China’s barley imports in 2013–14.

Australian barley exports to Saudi Arabia are forecast to fall by 18 per cent in 2014–15 to around 1 million tonnes. Australia is expected to lose market share to lower-cost suppliers of feed quality barley such as Ukraine.

Australian barley exports to Japan are forecast to fall by 10 per cent in 2014–15 to 650 000 tonnes. More than 80 per cent of Australian barley exported to Japan is feed quality. Demand for feed barley in Japan is expected to decline because of the substitution of corn for barley in livestock feed.

Grain sorghumAustralian grain sorghum exports are forecast to fall by 42 per cent in 2014–15 to around 408 000 tonnes, mainly because of lower production in 2013–14. Grain sorghum produced in this period is now being exported.

China became Australia’s largest export market for grain sorghum in 2013–14 and is forecast to remain the largest in 2014–15. This reflects an expected increase in the use of grain sorghum in animal feed and liquor production in China. However, Australia’s share of grain sorghum imports into China is expected to fall in 2014–15 because of increased competition from the United States.

49

Coarse grains


Grain sorghum imports, China

kt

300

600

900

1 200

1 500

1 800

United States

Australia

Sep2014

Sep2013

Sep2012

Sep2011

Sep2010

Coarse grains outlookC i tl kCoarsegrainsoutlookit 2012 13 2013 14 2014 15 f % change

gunit 2012–13 2013–14 s 2014–15 f % change

WorldProduction Mt 1 136 1 280 1 271 –0.7WorldProduction Mt 1 136 1 280 1 271 –0.7– barley Mt 130 145 138 –4 8– barley Mt 130 145 138 –4.8corn Mt 868 989 990 0 1– corn Mt 868 989 990 0.1

Consumption Mt 1 140 1 226 1 251 2.0pTrade Mt 123 163 148 –9.2Trade Mt 123 163 148 9.2Closing stocks Mt 165 218 238 9.2Closing stocks Mt 165 218 238 9.2Stocks‐to‐use ratio % 14 18 19Stocks‐to‐use ratio % 14 18 19C i

$Corn price a (fob Gulf, Jul–Jun) US$/t 312 219 180 –17.8( , ) $/Barley price b(fob Rouen Jul–Jun) US$/t 296 242 205 –15 3Barley price b (fob Rouen, Jul–Jun) US$/t 296 242 205 –15.3AustraliaAustraliaArea ’000 ha 5 199 5 366 5 284 –1.5– barley ’000 ha 3 644 3 920 3 798 –3.1 barley 000 ha 3 644 3 920 3 798 3.1– grain sorghum ’000 ha 648 493 532 7.9– grain sorghum 000 ha 648 493 532 7.9Production kt 11 500 12 587 10 530 –16 3Production kt 11 500 12 587 10 530 –16.3barley kt 7 472 9 539 7 445 22 0– barley kt 7 472 9 539 7 445 –22.0

i h k– grain sorghum kt 2 230 1 107 1 338 20.9g gExports kt 6 762 8 046 5 622 –30.1Exports kt 6 762 8 046 5 622 30.1– value A$m 2 101 2 542 1 630 –35.9– value A$m 2 101 2 542 1 630 35.9Feed barley price c A$/t 245 233 242 3 9Feed barley price c A$/t 245 233 242 3.9M lti b l i d A$/t 255 249 264 6 0Malting barley price d A$/t 255 249 264 6.0g y pa US no. 2 yellow corn July–June. b France feed barley, fob Rouen July–June. c Feed 1, delivered a US no. 2 yellow corn July June. b France feed barley, fob Rouen July June. c Feed 1, delivered Geelong. d Gairdner Malt 1, delivered Geelong. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Geelong. d Gairdner Malt 1, delivered Geelong. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; United Nations Commodity Trade StatisticsSources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics

b ( d ) d f lDatabase (UN Comtrade); United States Department of Agriculture ( ) p g


• The world oilseeds indicator price is forecast to fall in 2014–15 in response to expected record soybean supplies.

• World oilseeds production is forecast to increase by 4 per cent in 2014–15 to 527 million tonnes, driven by a forecast 18 per cent increase in US soybean production.

• The world canola indicator price is forecast to decline by 16 per cent in 2014–15.

Prices to fall in 2014–15The world oilseeds indicator price (US soybeans, fob Gulf) is forecast to fall by 21 per cent in 2014–15 to average US$435 a tonne, which if realised will be the lowest since 2009–10. This forecast primarily reflects a large expected increase in world soybean supply in 2014–15.

The world canola indicator price (Europe Rapeseed, fob Hamburg) is forecast to decline by 16 per cent in 2014–15 to average US$435 a tonne. The forecast fall in the soybean indicator price is expected to place significant downward pressure on canola prices, despite a forecast decline in world canola production.

World oilseeds indicator price, US soybeans, fob Gulf

2014–15US$/t

f ABARES forecast.

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

2002–03

OilseedsDavid Mobsby

51

Oilseeds


The world oilseeds indicator price fell 9 per cent during September 2014 from US$440 a tonne to US$402 a tonne, largely reflecting expectations of record US soybean production. However, the price rose by 13 per cent between 1 October 2014 and 11 November 2014 in response to a slow start to the harvest. The average price over the remainder of 2014–15 is expected to be relatively low once the large harvest in the United States is complete.

US and Brazilian crops expected to reach record levels in 2014–15World oilseeds production is forecast to increase by 4 per cent in 2014–15 to 527 million tonnes. This forecast increase is driven by an expected 9 per cent increase in world soybean production to 310 million tonnes.

World oilseeds production

Soybeans

Canola

Other

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

100

200

300

400

500

600

2014–15f

2011–12

2008–09

2005–06

2002–03

1999–2000

1996–97

1993–94

1990–91

US soybean production is estimated to have reached 108 million tonnes in 2014–15, an 18 per cent rise on the previous year. This reflects a 9 per cent increase in area harvested and an 8 per cent increase in the average yield to 3.2 tonnes a hectare.

Soybean production in Brazil is forecast to rise by 6 per cent in 2014–15 to 92 million tonnes. The area planted to soybeans in Brazil is forecast to rise by 5 per cent, largely as a result of low corn prices increasing the attractiveness to producers of planting soybeans.

Soybean production in Argentina is forecast to rise by 2 per cent in 2014–15 to 55 million tonnes, driven by a forecast 4 per cent increase in planted area to 20.6 million hectares. Grains and oilseeds prices are forecast to fall in 2014–15, so for many producers soybeans are expected to be more attractive than corn because of lower production costs. However, the average yield is assumed to fall by 2 per cent from above average yields in 2013–14.

52

Oilseeds


Soybean production in the three major exporting countries

Argentina

Brazil

United States

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

2014–15f

2011–12

2008–09

2005–06

2002–03

1999–2000

1996–97

1993–94

1990–91

50

100

150

200

250

300

Canola (rapeseed)World canola production is forecast to decline marginally in 2014–15 to around 71 million tonnes, reflecting expected falls in production in Canada, Australia and Ukraine. Largely offsetting these expected declines, production in the European Union is estimated to have reached record levels.

Canola production changes, 2014–15

Mt

–3

–2

–1

0

1

2

3

totalrest ofworld

Ukraine EuropeanUnion

Canada Australia

Harvesting of the 2014–15 canola crop in Canada was largely completed by the end of October 2014. Production is estimated to have fallen by 19 per cent to 14.5 million tonnes, largely reflecting an estimated decline in the average yield to 1.85 tonnes a hectare. This is a 17 per cent fall from the record yields achieved in 2013–14 but above the 10-year average to 2012–13. Unfavourable seasonal conditions (excessive moisture and frost) during harvest resulted in below average crop quality.

53

Oilseeds


Rapeseed production in the European Union is estimated to have increased by 14 per cent in 2014–15 to 24 million tonnes, reflecting a 12 per cent increase in the average yield to 3.5 tonnes a hectare. Production in France is estimated to have increased by 26 per cent to 5.5 million tonnes and in Germany by 8 per cent to 6.2 million tonnes.

Oilseed crush to rise to record highWorld oilseed crush is forecast to rise by 4 per cent in 2014–15 to 431 million tonnes. This forecast rise in world oilseed crush reflects increased demand for both protein meals and vegetable oils and plentiful supplies of soybeans at low prices. When crushed, soybeans yield a greater amount of meal than other oilseeds.

World oilseed crush

Soybeans

Canola

Other

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

100

200

300

400

500

2014–15f

2011–12

2008–09

2005–06

2002–03

1999–2000

1996–97

1993–94

1990–91

World soybean crush is forecast to rise by 6 per cent in 2014–15 to 253 million tonnes, reflecting an expected rise in the world’s four largest soybean crushing countries—China, the United States, Brazil and Argentina. Soybean crush is forecast to rise by 8 per cent in China to around 75 million tonnes; by 3 per cent in the United States to 48.5 million tonnes; by 7 per cent in Brazil to 39 million tonnes; and by 5 per cent in Argentina to 38 million tonnes.

World canola crush is forecast to rise by 3 per cent in 2014–15 to 68 million tonnes. Canola crush is forecast to rise by 4 per cent in the European Union to 24 million tonnes and by 4 per cent in Canada to 7.3 million tonnes. Canola crush in China is forecast to expand at a rate of 1 per cent, much slower than in recent years, largely because of the high level of canola oil stocks carried over from 2013–14.

Protein meal production to rise on a record soybean crushWith the forecast increase in soybean crush, world production of protein meals is forecast to rise by 4 per cent in 2014–15 to 292 million tonnes. Production of soybean meal is forecast to rise by 6 per cent to 199 million tonnes.

World vegetable oil production is forecast to rise by 3 per cent in 2014–15 to 176 million tonnes. Soybean oil production is forecast to increase by 5 per cent to 47 million tonnes, canola oil production by 3 per cent to 27 million tonnes and palm oil production by 4 per cent to around 62 million tonnes. The forecast growth in palm oil production is lower than in recent years because of dry conditions in major palm growing regions in Indonesia and Malaysia during 2014.

54

Oilseeds


World protein meal and vegetable oil production

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

Protein meal

Vegetable oil

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

2002–03

2000–01

Use of vegetable oil and protein meal forecast to riseWorld use of protein meals is forecast to rise by 4 per cent in 2014–15 to 286 million tonnes. Use of soybean meal is forecast to rise by 6 per cent to 197 million tonnes, with large increases expected in China, the European Union, the United States and Brazil.

World vegetable oil use is forecast to expand by 5 per cent in 2014–15 to 175 million tonnes. Food use of vegetable oils is forecast to rise to 131 million tonnes, accounting for three-quarters of the expected rise in total vegetable oil use. Growth in world use of vegetable oil for industrial purposes is forecast to increase to around 42 million tonnes, largely reflecting expected increases in biodiesel production in Argentina, Brazil and Indonesia.

World vegetable oil use

Food

Industrial

Other

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

2014–15f

2011–12

2008–09

2005–06

2002–03

1999–2000

1996–97

1993–94

1990–91

30

60

90

120

150

180

55

Oilseeds


World oilseed exports forecast to rise marginallyWorld oilseed exports are forecast to rise marginally in 2014–15 to 135 million tonnes. A forecast decline in canola exports is expected to partially offset a forecast rise in soybean exports.

World oilseed trade

Soybeans

Canola

Other

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

2014–15f

2011–12

2008–09

2005–06

2002–03

1999–2000

1996–97

1993–94

1990–91

30

60

90

120

150

World soybean exports are forecast to rise by 2 per cent in 2014–15 to 115 million tonnes, reflecting an expected 4 per cent rise in US soybean exports to 47 million tonnes. Soybean exports from the United States are forecast to rise because of expected increases in domestic US supply and import demand from China. Soybean exports from Brazil are forecast to remain largely unchanged in 2014–15 at 47 million tonnes, with forecast increases in domestic use and production expected to offset each other.

Chinese soybean imports are forecast to rise by 5 per cent in 2014–15 to 74 million tonnes, which if realised would be around two-thirds of expected world imports. This forecast rise in Chinese imports reflects an expected fall in domestic production and forecast strong demand for protein meals and vegetable oils.

World canola exports are forecast to fall by 9 per cent in 2014–15 to 14 million tonnes because of expected declines in canola supplies in major exporting countries. Canadian exports are forecast to fall by 10 per cent to 8.3 million tonnes; Australian exports by 15 per cent to 2.4 million tonnes (November to October marketing year basis); and Ukrainian exports by 15 per cent to 1.9 million tonnes.

Canola imports into the European Union and China are forecast to fall in 2014–15 because of increases in domestic production in both economies. The European Union is forecast to reduce canola imports by 31 per cent to around 2.4 million tonnes, the lowest since 2010–11. Chinese canola imports are forecast to fall by 11 per cent from the record imports in 2013–14 but to remain well above the five-year average to 2012–13. In contrast, canola imports into Japan are forecast to rise by 3 per cent in 2014–15 to around 2.4 million tonnes, reflecting growing domestic use of canola meal and oil.

56

Oilseeds


European Union and China canola imports

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

ChinaEuropean Union

1

2

3

4

5

6

2014–15f

2011–12

2008–09

2005–06

2002–03

1999–2000

World oilseed stocks to riseWorld closing stocks of oilseeds are forecast to rise by 27 per cent in 2014–15 to 102 million tonnes. This increase is driven by an expected 31 per cent increase in soybean stocks to a record 90 million tonnes. US soybean closing stocks are forecast to nearly quadruple to 12.2 million tonnes, the highest since 2006–07. Closing stocks in Argentina are forecast to rise in 2014–15 to a record high of 35 million tonnes, reflecting a forecast increase in production.

World oilseeds closing stocks

Soybeans

Canola

Other

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

2014–15f

2011–12

2008–09

2005–06

2002–03

1999–2000

1996–97

1993–94

1990–91

20

40

60

80

100

120

World closing stocks of canola are forecast to decrease by 5 per cent in 2014–15 to 6.2 million tonnes. Canola stocks in the European Union are forecast to rise by around 800 000 tonnes to 2.6 million tonnes, but stocks in Canada are forecast to fall by around 1.3 million tonnes to around 1 million tonnes. The canola stocks-to-use ratio is forecast to fall by around 1 percentage point to 8.7 per cent.

57

Oilseeds


AustraliaOilseeds production to fallTotal Australian oilseeds production is forecast to decline by 20 per cent in 2014–15 to 4.1 million tonnes.

Australian oilseeds production

Cottonseed

Canola

Other

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

2002–03

2000–01

1

2

3

4

5

6

Australian canola production is forecast to fall by 12 per cent in 2014–15 to around 3.3 million tonnes. This forecast decline is driven by expected large production declines in Western Australia, Victoria and South Australia.

An expected 13 per cent fall in canola production in Western Australia to 1.6 million tonnes reflects a forecast return to average yields from the record yields achieved in 2013–14. Canola production in South Australia is expected to decline by 21 per cent to 350 000 tonnes, partly reflecting the adverse effects on yields of frost events. Canola production in Victoria has been adversely affected by dry seasonal conditions during spring. As a result, production is forecast to fall by 20 per cent to 497 000 tonnes.

Canola production, major producing states

Western Australia

South Australia

Victoria

New South Wales

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

2002–03

2000–01

1

2

3

4

5

58

Oilseeds


Australian cottonseed production is forecast to almost halve in 2014–15 to around 665 000 tonnes. Producers have responded to low cotton prices at the time of planting, and low water availability in major producing regions, by reducing the area planted to cotton by 46 per cent to 210 000 hectares.

Cottonseed production, major producing states

Queensland

New South Wales

kt

f ABARES forecast.

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

2002–03

2000–01

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

Exports to decline on lower productionAustralian canola exports are forecast to fall by 35 per cent in 2014–15 to 2.1 million tonnes, reflecting an expected decline in canola production in 2014–15 and relatively low supplies carried over from 2013–14. Canola exports in the first quarter of 2014–15 totalled around 51 000 tonnes, compared with exports of 351 000 tonnes in the first quarter of 2013–14. The value of canola exports is forecast to decline by 44 per cent to $1.1 billion because of expected lower canola shipments and forecast lower world canola prices.

Australian cottonseed exports are forecast to fall by 27 per cent in 2014–15 to 340 000 tonnes. While production is forecast to decline significantly in 2014–15, the impact on export shipments in that period is expected to be lessened by the availability of supplies from the large 2013–14 crop. The value of cottonseed exports is forecast to be $129 million, a decline of 23 per cent from 2013–14.

Australian canola exports

Volume

Mt $b

Value (right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

2002–03

2000–01

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

59

Oilseeds


Oilseeds outlookOil d tl kOilseedsoutlooki 20 2 3 20 3 20 f % h

Oilseedsoutlookunit 2012–13 2013–14 s 2014–15 f % change

WorldProduction Mt 475 505 527 4 2WorldProduction Mt 475 505 527 4.2Consumption Mt 468 488 505 3 5Consumption Mt 468 488 505 3.5

il d l M 264 275 286 3 9– oilseed meal Mt 264 275 286 3.9– vegetable oil Mt 158 166 175 5.2 vegetable oil Mt 158 166 175 5.2Exports Mt 118 134 135 0.8Exports Mt 118 134 135 0.8Closing stocks Mt 67 81 102 26 7Closing stocks Mt 67 81 102 26.7Stocks to use ratio % 14 17 20Stocks‐to‐use ratio % 14 17 20

$Soybeans indicator price a US$/t 597 547 435 –20.5Soybeans indicator price a $/Canola indicator price b US$/t 628 521 435 –16.4Canola indicator price b US$/t 628 521 435 16.4AustraliaT t l d ti kt 5 752 5 141 4 103 20 2AustraliaTotal production kt 5 752 5 141 4 103 –20.2– winter kt 4 155 3 776 3 336 –11.7– summer kt 1 597 1 365 767 –43.8 summer kt 1 597 1 365 767 43.8CanolaCanolaProduction kt 4 142 3 761 3 324 –11 6Production kt 4 142 3 761 3 324 –11.6E t kt 3 488 3 194 2 085 34 7Exports c kt 3 488 3 194 2 085 –34.7p– value A$m 2 094 1 929 1 078 –44.1 value $Price c(delivered Melbourne) A$/t 560 529 466 –12 0Price c (delivered Melbourne) A$/t 560 529 466 –12.0S b US f b G lf J l J b R d E f b H b J l Ja Soybeans, US, fob Gulf, July–June. b Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburg, July–June.

c July–June years. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.c Ju y Ju e yea s S o ecast s S est ateSources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World, Hamburg;Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World, Hamburg; United States Department of AgricultureUnited States Department of Agriculture


SugarBenjamin K Agbenyegah

• World sugar prices are forecast to average US16 cents a pound in 2014–15, which if realised will be the lowest average price in six years.

• World sugar consumption is forecast at a record high in 2014–15.• World sugar stocks are forecast to reach record levels in 2014–15. However, the

world stocks-to-use ratio is expected to decline for the first time in five years, reflecting faster growth in consumption relative to production.

• Based on forecast higher production, Australian raw sugar exports are forecast to increase by 6 per cent in 2014–15 to 3.3 million tonnes.

Lowest world sugar prices in six yearsThe world indicator price of raw sugar (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract) is forecast to average US16 cents a pound in 2014–15 (October to September)—the lowest price in six years. The forecast price mainly reflects record world sugar supplies in 2014–15, resulting from five consecutive years of production exceeding consumption. World sugar stocks are forecast to increase to a record 76.8 million tonnes in 2014–15, but the world stocks-to-use ratio is expected to decline for the first time in five years. This expected decline reflects forecast higher world consumption growth relative to production.

The world indicator price for raw sugar averaged around US17 cents a pound in 2013–14, 7 per cent lower than in 2012–13. As at 24 November 2014, the world sugar indicator price was US16 cents a pound, compared with US18 cents a pound at the same time the year before.

61

Sugar


Indicator price, Intercontinental Exchange (daily, ended 24 November 2014)

USc/lb

5

10

15

20

Nov2014

Aug2014

May2014

Feb2014

Nov2013

Aug2013

May2013

World sugar indicators a

Production

Consumption

Closing stocks

Mt2014–15USc/lb

Indicator price(right axis)

a Production and consumption are raw value equivalent. f ABARES forecast.

40

80

120

160

200

6

12

18

24

30

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

2002–03

2000–01

Modest rise in world sugar production in 2014–15World sugar production is forecast to rise slightly to around 183 million tonnes in 2014–15. Forecast higher sugar production in India, Europe and Australia is expected to be partially offset by forecast lower production in Brazil and China.

Sugar production in India is forecast to increase by 4 per cent in 2014–15 to 27 million tonnes. Well above average monsoon rainfall in 2013–14 is expected to result in a 6 per cent rise in average sugar yield. Partially offsetting this is a 2 per cent decline in the area of cane harvested.

Sugar production in the European Union is forecast to be around 19 million tonnes in 2014–15, 9 per cent higher than in 2013–14. This forecast is based on a 7 per cent increase in beet production, largely reflecting record sugar beet yields. This follows two years of adverse seasonal conditions. The area planted to sugar beet increased in Germany and France from the lows of the previous season. However, the area planted to sugar beet in other EU countries was similar to that of 2013–14, as producers responded to the planned ending of the EU quota system in 2017.

62

Sugar


In Eastern Europe, sugar production is forecast to increase by 8 per cent in 2014–15 to 8.1 million tonnes. This forecast increase is largely driven by production in Ukraine, where sugar beet plantings were higher and sugar yields are estimated to have been higher. Sugar production in Ukraine is forecast to increase by 41 per cent in 2014–15 to around 2 million tonnes, reflecting an 18 per cent rise in sugar beet plantings and an estimated 23 per cent increase in average sugar yield. Sugar production in the Russian Federation is forecast at 4.8 million tonnes in 2014–15, similar to the volume produced in 2013–14. Despite a 3 per cent rise in the area planted to sugar beet, hot and dry seasonal conditions in summer adversely affected average beet and sugar yields.

In 2014–15 sugar production in the United States is forecast at 7.7 million tonnes, compared with 7.6 million tonnes in 2013–14. The average sugar yield is estimated to rise by 4 per cent to 9.3 tonnes a hectare, but the area planted to sugar beet and cane declined by 3 per cent to around 828 000 hectares.

Sugar production in Thailand is forecast to be largely unchanged at around 12 million tonnes in 2014–15. This forecast reflects a 3 per cent increase in the area planted to cane being largely offset by a 10 per cent decline in estimated average sugar yield. Growers increased area planted in response to favourable returns to cane production after the Thai Government redirected subsidies from rice to sugar cane production. Average yields are expected to be lower because of adverse effects of dry weather in key growing regions.

Sugar production in Mexico is forecast to increase marginally to 6.5 million tonnes in 2014–15. The area harvested to cane is expected to remain largely unchanged and sugar yields are assumed to be average, following adverse seasonal conditions in 2013–14.

Brazil’s sugar cane crush is forecast to decline by 7 per cent in 2014–15 to 608 million tonnes. This forecast largely reflects an estimated 8 per cent decline in average cane yield because of drought in Brazil’s centre south region, which produces around 90 per cent of Brazil’s sugar cane. The forecast decline in Brazil’s cane crush, combined with an increase in allocation of cane to ethanol production, is expected to result in sugar production falling by 4 per cent to 38 million tonnes in 2014–15 (October to September).

Sugar cane is used to produce sugar and ethanol in Brazil, with the relative prices of sugar and ethanol determining how much sugar cane is allocated to the production of each. The world oil price is a factor in determining the demand for ethanol, but the Brazilian Government supports domestic ethanol demand through policy measures including a mandatory blending ratio with gasoline. The Brazilian Senate recently approved a bill to increase the ratio from 25 per cent to 27.5 per cent in the 2014–15 season, following an increase from 20 per cent to 25 per cent in 2013–14. These increases, combined with relatively low sugar prices, are encouraging Brazilian sugar mills to divert more cane to ethanol production. In 2014–15 the allocation of cane to ethanol production is expected to rise from 55 per cent to 56 per cent.

63

Sugar


Sugar cane production and allocation, Brazil

Cane production

Sugar production

Mt %

Ethanol share of cane(right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

2002–03

2000–01

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Chinese sugar production is forecast to decline by 9 per cent in 2014–15 to 13.3 million tonnes. This forecast largely reflects a 9 per cent decline in the area planted to cane in response to a reduction in the sugar cane price received by farmers. The Chinese Government reduced the price millers pay growers for cane from around US$78 a tonne in 2013–14 to US$72 a tonne in 2014–15. This reduction is expected to support mills that have struggled to stay in business as well as reduce domestic sugar production and stocks. The effect of reduced area planted to cane is expected to be partially offset by an estimated 2 per cent rise in average sugar yield after typhoons damaged sugar cane in 2013–14 season.

Changes in world sugar production, by country

Mt

–2.5–2.0–1.5–1.0–0.50.00.51.01.5

2.0

world

other

China

Brazil

Mexico

Thailand

UnitedStates

EasternEurope

EuropeanUnion

India

Australia

2013–14

2014–15f

f ABARES forecast.

64

Sugar


World sugar consumption to reach record in 2014–15World sugar consumption is forecast to increase by 2 per cent in 2014–15 to a record of around 183 million tonnes. This forecast reflects a combination of lower world sugar prices and expected population and income growth in developing countries—particularly China, India and Brazil.

Changes in world sugar consumption, by country

2014–15f

2013–14

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

world

other

Pakistan

Indonesia

UnitedStates

Brazil

China

EuropeanUnion

India

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Record world sugar stocks in 2014–15World closing stocks of sugar are forecast to increase marginally to a record 76.8 million tonnes in 2014–15. In contrast, the world stocks-to-use ratio is expected to decline from around 43 per cent in 2013–14 to 42 per cent in 2014–15. This is the result of forecast higher world consumption growth relative to production. If realised, the stocks-to-use ratio will decline for the first time in five years.

World sugar consumption and stocks changes, and stocks-to-use ratio

StocksConsumption

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

–10

–5

0

5

10

15

%

Stocks-to-useratio (right axis)

10

20

30

40

50

60

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

2002–03

2000–01

65

Sugar


Marginal recovery in world sugar tradeWorld sugar exports are forecast to recover marginally in 2014–15 to 58.5 million tonnes. This forecast reflects expected increases in sugar available for export from Thailand, India, the European Union and Australia being partially offset by an expected reduction in exports from Brazil—the world’s largest exporter.

In Thailand, sugar exports are forecast at a record 9.3 million tonnes in 2014–15, 20 per cent higher than the volume shipped in 2013–14. Despite the sugar production forecast being largely unchanged in 2014–15, large carry-over stocks from the record harvest of 2013–14 are expected to increase sugar available for export.

India is forecast to export around 2.3 million tonnes of sugar in 2014–15, 10 per cent more than in 2013–14. This forecast increase reflects a combination of large carry-over stocks from the previous year, a forecast increase in domestic production and the Indian Government’s subsidy on raw sugar exports. The Indian Government supported sugar exports in 2013–14 (October to September) by subsidising raw sugar exports at around US$54 a tonne in June and July 2014 and US$55 a tonne in August and September. In October the Indian Government announced it would consider extending the incentives for raw sugar exports in the 2014–15 season.

EU sugar exports are forecast to almost double to 2.3 million tonnes in 2014–15, reflecting forecast higher domestic production. EU imports are forecast to fall by 19 per cent to around 3.2 million tonnes.

Based on forecast lower production, Brazilian sugar exports are expected to decline by 3 per cent in 2014–15 to around 24 million tonnes.

Mexican sugar exports are forecast to decline by 20 per cent in 2014–15 to around 2 million tonnes. This reflects expected reduced exports to the United States because of high US domestic production and recent adjustments to trade in sugar between the two countries. Following US domestic sugar grower complaints that the Mexican Government was unfairly subsidising Mexican sugar and that it was being dumped in the US market, the countries reached a deal to avoid anti-subsidy duties on Mexican sugar imports. Mexican sugar imports to the United States will be set at a minimum price (US23.57 cents a pound for refined sugar and US20.75 for raw) and additional restrictions will be placed on when imports from Mexico can enter the US market.

Changes in world sugar exports, by country

2014–15f

2013–14

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

world

other

Mexico

Brazil

India

EuropeanUnion

Thailand

Australia

–5

–4

–3

–2

–1

0

1

2

66

Sugar


US sugar imports are forecast at around 3 million tonnes in 2014–15, down from 3.4 million tonnes in 2013–14. This reflects estimated higher domestic production and large carry-over stocks from 2013–14. The United States is obliged to import a minimum of 1.1 million tonnes of tariff-free sugar under its World Trade Organization commitment, in addition to importing tariff-free sugar from Mexico under the North American Free Trade Agreement.

Sugar imports into the Russian Federation are forecast to increase by 4 per cent in 2014–15 to 1.3 million tonnes. Driving this forecast is an expected increase in sugar consumption to around 6 million tonnes. Forecast production will remain relatively low for a second consecutive year.

Sugar imports by Indonesia are forecast at 4 million tonnes in 2014–15, 7 per cent higher than in 2013–14. Sugar consumption is expected to increase by 4 per cent to around 6.4 million tonnes; domestic production is expected to remain largely unchanged at 2.8 million tonnes.

Australian sugar production to increase in 2014–15Australian sugar production is forecast at 4.6 million tonnes (raw value) in 2014–15, 5 per cent higher than in 2013–14. This forecast reflects a 2 per cent increase in the area of cane harvested and an estimated 3 per cent rise in average sugar yield. The expected recovery in average cane and sugar yields this season follows flooding and spread of canopy syndrome disease in the Bundaberg and Isis regions, which adversely affected yields in 2013–14.

Queensland Sugar Limited (QSL) estimated its gross harvest pool return in 2014–15 to average $403 a tonne International Polarity Scale (IPS), 3 per cent higher than in 2013–14. Despite an expectation of declining world sugar prices in 2014–15, QSL noted that the final harvest pool return would depend on movements in world sugar prices and the Australian exchange rate. QSL markets more than 90 per cent of Australia’s raw sugar exports.

The average mill-gate return to Australian cane growers in 2014–15 is forecast at $37 a tonne, unchanged from the price received by growers in 2013–14.

Sugar production, exports and returns to cane growers, Australia

Production

Exports

kt2014–15$/t

Return to cane growers (right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

1

2

3

4

5

6

10

20

30

40

50

60

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

2002–03

2000–01

67

Sugar


Based on forecast higher production, Australian raw sugar exports are forecast to increase by 6 per cent in 2014–15 to 3.3 million tonnes. The value of Australian sugar exports is forecast at $1.5 billion in 2014–15, 7 per cent more than in 2013–14. The forecast increase in the value of exports largely reflects the effect of forecast lower world sugar prices being more than offset by higher export volumes.

Sugar outlook a

unit 2012–13 2013–14 s 2014–15 f % change

Production Mt 185.3 182.6 182.9 0.2– Brazil Mt 40.8 39.6 38.0 –4.0Consumption Mt 175.7 178.9 182.7 2.1Exports Mt 61.1 57.9 58.5 1.0Closing stocks Mt 74.4 76.6 76.8 0.3Stocks‐to‐use ratio % 42.4 42.8 42.0Price USc/lb 18.0 16.8 16.0 –4.8

Area ’000 ha 371.0 375.0 381.0 1.6Production kt 4 300.0 4 380.0 4 599.6 5.0Exports kt 3 003.6 3 107.0 3 277.9 5.5– value A$m 1 437.4 1 354.2 1 450.3 7.1

SugaroutlookaWorld b

Australia c

a Volumes are raw value equivalent. b October–September years. c July–June years. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; International Sugar Organization


• The world cotton indicator price is forecast to decline in 2014–15. This will be driven by expected record world cotton supplies and a change in China’s cotton support policy from stockpiling to income support.

• World cotton exports are forecast to be 7.5 million tonnes in 2014–15, the lowest in five years. This decline largely reflects expected lower import demand from China and a reduction in cotton available for export in the United States and India—the world’s two largest exporters.

• The return to Australian cotton growers at the gin-gate is forecast to decline in 2014–15 to $499 a bale (227 kilograms), reflecting lower world cotton prices.

• Australian cotton exports to India were 21 000 tonnes in the first quarter of 2014–15, more than quadruple the volume shipped at the same time in the previous year.

Lower world cotton prices in 2014–15The world indicator price for cotton (Cotlook ‘A’ index) is forecast to average US70 cents a pound in 2014–15 (August to July), down from around US91 cents a pound in 2013–14. This forecast decline reflects the combined effects of expected record world cotton supplies and changes in policy by the Chinese Government. World cotton stocks are forecast to reach record levels in 2014–15, despite forecast consumption being the highest in five years. As a result, the stocks-to-use ratio is expected to be at a record of around 95 per cent by the end of 2014–15 (August to July).

The world stocks-to-use ratio excluding China is forecast to rise for the first time in three years from 52 per cent to 60 per cent, but the ratio in China is expected to decline for the first time in four years from 182 per cent to 164 per cent. This decline reflects a change in the Chinese Government’s policy to support domestic cotton producers, from strategic stockpiling to income subsidy.

The change in cotton support policy in China led to a significant reduction in Chinese cotton planting. As a result, China’s share of world cotton production is expected to decline from 27 per cent to 25 per cent in 2014–15. Since the announcement of this policy change in February 2014, domestic cotton prices in China have declined by around 25 per cent to levels similar to those recorded in May 2012. Going forward, the area planted to cotton in China is expected to fall further as a result of the new policy arrangement.

CottonBenjamin K Agbenyegah

69

Cotton


Daily cotton prices in China

USc/lb

China cotton index (2129B)China cotton index (3128B)

30

60

90

120

150

180

Cotlook ‘A’ index

Nov2014

May2014

Nov2013

May2013

Nov2012

May2012

China has announced that in 2015 it will not permit any additional imports beyond the 894 000 tonnes required under its World Trade Organization (WTO) commitments. This is in contrast to the three years to 2013–14, when China imported much of the world’s cotton surplus (production in excess of consumption). As a result, record closing stocks for the world excluding China are expected to put significant downward pressure on world cotton prices in 2014–15. In addition, China’s management of its large cotton stocks and purchasing arrangements for the domestic cotton crop in the 2014–15 season (August to July) are likely to influence world prices.

World cotton indicators (annual)

Production

Consumption

Stocks

Mt2014–15USc/lb

Outlook ‘A’ index (right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

5

10

15

20

25

30

30

60

90

120

150

180

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

2002–03

2000–01

70

Cotton


World cotton production to rise slightly in 2014–15World cotton production is forecast at 26.3 million tonnes in 2014–15, a slight increase on 2013–14. This forecast is based on a 5 per cent increase in the area planted to cotton (largely in India and the United States) being offset by a 4 per cent decline in estimated world average lint yield. Harvest is almost complete in the northern hemisphere, with higher production in India, the United States, Pakistan and Turkey expected to be largely offset by lower production in China, Brazil and Australia.

Forecast changes in world cotton production, by country

2014–15f

2013–14

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

–1.0

–0.5

0

0.5

1.0

1.5

worldother

AustraliaBrazil

ChinaTurkey

PakistanUnited States

India

Cotton production in India is forecast to increase by 2 per cent to a record 6.9 million tonnes in 2014‒15. This reflects a 9 per cent rise in planted area to a record 12.8 million hectares, being partially offset by a 7 per cent decline in estimated average yield. A combination of relatively high target prices announced by the Indian Government and the late arrival of the 2014 monsoon, which limited planting of alternative crops, encouraged record cotton planting. The India Meteorological Department estimated that the 2014 monsoon season delivered rainfall 12.3 per cent below the long-term average (1951–2000). If this forecast is realised, India will surpass China to become the world’s largest cotton producer.

In 2014–15 US cotton production is forecast to recover by 27 per cent to 3.6 million tonnes, reflecting a return to average seasonal conditions following dry conditions over the three years to 2013–14. Area planted to cotton rose by 9 per cent and average lint yield is estimated to increase by around 18 per cent. The US abandonment rate for cotton (the area planted but not harvested because of poor yields) is expected to be 13 per cent in 2014–15, down from 28 per cent in 2013–14.

71

Cotton


Cotton area and lint yield in the United States

Area planted

Area harvested

Mha t/ha

Lint yield (right axis)

f ABARES forecast.Note: Lint yield is based on area planted.

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

2002–03

2000–01

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

Cotton production in Pakistan is forecast to be 2.1 million tonnes in 2014–15, 3 per cent more than in 2013–14. The forecast is based on a 1.7 per cent rise in cotton planting and an estimated 1.5 per cent increase in lint yield. The increase in planting reflects the Pakistan Government announcement that it would purchase around 6 per cent of the domestic crop in 2014–15, at around US34 cents a pound, and its recently gained favourable access to European markets for garments and textiles. The government purchase price is higher than the current farm price of around US26 cents a pound. Improved seasonal conditions are expected to result in a higher average yield than in the 2013–14 season.

Cotton production in Turkey is forecast at 686 000 tonnes in 2014–15, 37 per cent higher than in the previous season. The forecast increase is based on a 30 per cent increase in area planted to cotton and a 5 per cent rise in estimated average yield. A combination of relatively high domestic cotton prices during planting, a 10 per cent increase in the Turkish Government production bonus paid to growers (equivalent to around US$244 a tonne) and an expansion of irrigation facilities in the south-eastern Anatolian region (where around 60 per cent of Turkish cotton is produced) encouraged more planting.

Cotton production in China is forecast to be 6.6 million tonnes in 2014–15, down from 7.1 million tonnes in 2013–14. This forecast largely reflects an 8 per cent fall in area planted to cotton, particularly in the Yangtze and Yellow river regions, in response to changes in government policy on cotton. Partially offsetting this decline is an estimated 5 per cent increase in average yield.

In 2014‒15 Brazil’s cotton production is forecast to decrease by 10 per cent to 1.6 million tonnes, reflecting an 11 per cent decline in estimated cotton planting in response to lower domestic prices. Average yield is expected to be largely unchanged at 1.6 tonnes a hectare, assuming average seasonal conditions.

72

Cotton


Lower prices to support world cotton consumption growthWorld cotton consumption is forecast at 24.8 million tonnes in 2014–15, 5 per cent higher than in 2013–14. If realised, forecast world cotton consumption will be the highest in five years. Combined with rising demand in the world’s largest cotton markets, lower world prices are expected to narrow the price gap between polyester and cotton. This will drive a recovery in cotton’s share of world fibre consumption. China, India, Pakistan and Turkey together are expected to account for around 93 per cent of the world’s cotton consumption growth in 2014–15.

World weekly apparel fibre prices

USc/lb

Polyester staple, Taiwan (cotton equivalent)

Cotlook ‘A’ index

Polyester staple, China (cotton equivalent)

Nov2014

Apr2014

Nov2013

Jun2013

Jan2013

Sep2012

20

40

60

80

100

120

Cotton consumption in China—the world’s largest cotton consumer—is forecast at around 8.3 million tonnes in 2014–15, up 10 per cent from 2013–14. If realised, consumption will have grown for the first time since 2010–11. In India, cotton consumption is forecast to increase by 4 per cent in 2014–15 to a record 5.3 million tonnes.

Forecast change in cotton consumption, by country, 2014–15

Mt

1.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

world

other

United States

Bangladesh

Brazil

Turkey

Pakistan

India

China

73

Cotton


Shift in world cotton markets to developing Asian countriesThe pattern of world raw cotton consumption changed significantly over the 10 years to 2013–14 as a result of liberalisation of world textiles trade. This has resulted in a shift in consumption from developed countries (including the United States and European nations) to developing countries (China, India and Pakistan), which have lower production costs.

Between 1960 and 1990 cotton mill use was concentrated in countries with large domestic markets such as the United States, China and India and in Europe. The Multi-fibre Arrangement (MFA) governed world trade in textiles from 1974 to 2004, using quotas to restrict the volume of textiles developing countries could export to developed countries. However, the European Union, under its preferential Economic Partnership Agreement, did not impose any restrictions or duties on imports from Bangladesh. This resulted in a massive expansion of the textile industry in Bangladesh at the expense of European production. The Agreement on Textiles and Clothing replaced the MFA on 1 January 2005. It removed quotas on the trade of textiles and garments to the previously protected industrialised markets of the United States and Europe.

World cotton consumption, by country, 1980 to 2014

Mt

Other

United States

Europe

Smaller Asian countries aIndia

China

5

10

15

20

25

30

a Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Thailand, Taiwan, Indonesia and the Republic of Korea.

2013–14

2007–08

2001–02

1995–96

1989–90

1983–84

The replacement of the MFA increased the pace of the shift in cotton consumption from industrialised countries towards developing countries, driven largely by cheaper labour costs. According to the World Trade Organization, labour accounts for around 34 per cent of total production costs in the textile sector. In 2011 average hourly labour costs in the major textile producing countries in Asia ranged from US$0.58 in Pakistan to US$2.1 in China, compared with an average of US$27 in Europe and around US$18 in the United States. As a result, investment in textile and garment production has been increasingly directed to China, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and other developing countries with low labour costs.

continued ...

74

Cotton


Shift in world cotton markets to developing Asian countries continued

Hourly labour costs in the textile industry, by country, 2011

US$/hour

10

20

30

40

50

Source: Werner International 2012, International comparison of the hourly labor cost in the primary textile industry, winter 2011, Herndon, United States

Mex

ico

Braz

il

Paki

stan

Viet

nam

Indi

a

Indo

nesi

a

Mal

aysi

a

Chin

a

Thai

land

Repu

blic

of K

orea

Taiw

an

Japa

n

Aust

ralia

Uni

ted

Stat

es

Port

ugal

Spai

n

Uni

ted

King

dom

Italy

Irela

nd

Ger

man

y

Fran

ce

Aust

ria

Belg

ium

Switz

erla

nd

Europe Major textile producingcountries in Asia

other

Liberalisation of world textile trade and increased investment in Asia led to a significant rise in raw cotton consumption in Asian countries. Asia accounted for around 77 per cent of the world’s raw cotton consumption in the 10 years to 2013–14, compared with 50 per cent between 1960 and 2001. In contrast, the United States and Europe collectively accounted for 5 per cent of world mill use in the 10 years to 2013–14, down from around 31 per cent from 1960 to 2001.

The concentration of textile production in Asia, particularly in China and India, has meant that global cotton consumption has become more sensitive to changes in policies in these countries. The Indian Government has in the past imposed quotas and bans on its raw cotton exports, and the Chinese Government has bought cotton on world markets for its domestic stockpile. These actions have reduced the available supply of raw cotton on world markets, which has increased costs for countries whose textile industries depend on cotton imports. For example, Indonesia’s cotton mill use growth has been constrained in recent years by higher cotton prices and falling demand, partly because of strong competition in the domestic market from Chinese, Indian and Pakistani textile imports.

75

Cotton


Record world cotton stocks in 2014–15World cotton closing stocks are forecast to increase by 6 per cent in 2014–15 to a record 23.5 million tonnes. At this level, stocks are almost equivalent to annual world cotton consumption. By the end of 2014–15, the world stocks-to-use ratio for cotton is expected to increase by 2 percentage points to a record of around 95 per cent. The world stocks-to-use ratio excluding China is forecast to reach 60 per cent (8 percentage points higher than in 2013–14), but the ratio for China is forecast to decline by 18 percentage points to around 164 per cent. The expected growth in the world stocks-to-use ratio for cotton outside China is the first in three years.

Stocks-to-use ratio for cotton

%

ChinaWorldWorld excluding China

2014–15f

2011–12

2008–09

2005–06

2002–03

1999–2000

f ABARES forecast.

40

80

120

160

200

Lowest world cotton trade in six yearsWorld cotton exports are forecast at 7.5 million tonnes in 2014‒15, around 16 per cent lower than in 2013–14. The forecast decline mainly reflects a 41 per cent fall in Chinese imports. In addition, cotton available for export is expected to decrease, as a result of forecast higher domestic demand in India and the United States and lower production in major cotton exporting countries (including Australia). If realised, world exports will be the lowest in six years.

Cotton imports by China are forecast at 1.7 million tonnes in 2014–15, compared with 2.9 million tonnes in 2013–14. This decline reflects China’s decision not to permit additional imports in 2015 beyond the 894 000 tonnes required under its WTO commitments, because it has accumulated cotton stocks equivalent to almost two years of domestic mill use. However, mills in China still hold close to 1 million tonnes of additional quotas issued for 2014, which will enable China’s cotton imports in 2014–15 to reach 1.7 million tonnes. If realised, imports by China will be the lowest since 2008–09, when it imported 1.5 million tonnes of raw cotton.

76

Cotton


In 2014–15 cotton exports from the United States—the world’s largest cotton exporter—are forecast at 2.2 million tonnes, 5 per cent lower than in 2013–14. This forecast decline is based on expected weaker demand from major importing countries and higher domestic consumption.

Cotton exports by India—the world’s second largest cotton exporter—are forecast to almost halve in 2014–15, to 1.1 million tonnes. This forecast reflects higher domestic demand for cotton, which is expected to reduce the availability of cotton for export. If realised, exports from India will be the lowest since 2009–10.

Cotton exports by Brazil are forecast to increase by 52 per cent in 2014–15 to 740 000 tonnes, reflecting an expected increase in cotton available for export. Large carry-over stocks from the 2013–14 season and a forecast 5 per cent fall in domestic consumption are expected to more than offset lower production this season. Domestic consumption is expected to decline because Brazil’s textile industry is contracting.

Lower Australian cotton production in 2014–15The 2013–14 Australian cotton crop is estimated to have declined by 13 per cent to 885 000 tonnes. This largely reflects the low soil moisture profiles and dry seasonal conditions that discouraged dryland cotton planting.

In 2014–15 Australian cotton production is forecast to decline by a further 47 per cent to 470 000 tonnes. If realised, production will be the lowest since 2010–11 but still above the five-year average to 2009–10 of 465 000 tonnes. Cotton planting (all irrigated) is estimated to fall by 46 per cent to 210 000 hectares, reflecting relatively low cotton prices and dry seasonal conditions over winter. These conditions reduced the level of dams serving Australia’s cotton growing regions. Average yields are assumed to be around 1 per cent lower than the previous season, at 2.2 tonnes a hectare. This reflects an assumed return to average yields following two years of bumper yields.

The average storage level of public irrigation dams serving Australia’s cotton growing regions was 25 per cent of capacity on 1 December 2014, compared with 95 per cent at the same time in 2012. Current dam levels are 4 percentage points below the 10-year average to 2010.

Storage levels of main irrigation dams, at 1 December 2014

%

New South Wales Queensland

Bear

dmor

e(S

t Geo

rge)

othe

r

othe

r

Fairb

airn

(Em

eral

d)

Lesl

ie(D

arlin

g D

owns

)

Burr

endo

ng(M

acqu

arie

)

Pind

ari

(Mac

inty

re)

Keep

it(N

amoi

)

Gle

nlyo

n(M

acin

tyre

)

Cope

ton

(Gw

ydir)

20122014

Average of the 10 yearsto 2010

20

40

60

80

100

77

Cotton


Lower Australian cotton prices in 2014–15The return to Australian cotton growers at the gin-gate is forecast to decline by 7 per cent in 2014–15 to average $499 a bale (227 kilograms) of lint (including the value of cottonseed and net of ginning costs). This fall is mainly driven by forecast lower world cotton prices. The return to growers is expected to be the lowest since 2005–06, when Australian cotton growers received $483 a bale (in 2014–15 dollars).

Lowest Australian cotton exports in four yearsAustralian cotton exports are forecast to decline by 30 per cent in 2014–15 to 730 000 tonnes, reflecting lower cotton supply in 2013–14 and 2014–15. Australia’s typical March to June harvest period means that cotton produced in one financial year is exported across two financial years. While cotton exports are forecast to be the lowest in four years, Australia is expected to be the fourth-largest exporter in 2014–15, behind the United States, India and Brazil.

In the first quarter of 2014–15, Australian cotton exports were 443 000 tonnes, compared with 477 000 tonnes in the same period the year before. Despite the overall decline, Australian raw cotton exports to India more than quadrupled to 21 000 tonnes, while shipments to Vietnam more than doubled (to 50 000 tonnes) and those to Malaysia almost tripled (to 9 000 tonnes). In the same period, raw cotton exports to Bangladesh, Thailand and Indonesia also rose by 21 per cent, 11 per cent and 9 per cent, respectively.

Australian cotton production, exports and gin-gate returns

Production

Exports

kt2014–15$/bale

Gin-gate return a (right axis)

a Value of lint and cottonseed, less ginning costs. f ABARES forecast.

300

600

900

1 200

1 500

200

400

600

800

1 000

2014–15f

2011–12

2008–09

2005–06

2002–03

1999–2000

78

Cotton


Cotton outlook

unit 2012–13 2013–14 s 2014–15 f % changeunit 2012 13 2013 14 s 2014 15 f % change

World aP d ti Mt 26 9 26 2 26 3 0 4World aProduction Mt 26.9 26.2 26.3 0.4Consumption Mt 23.4 23.7 24.8 4.6Consumption Exports Mt 10.2 8.9 7.5 –15.7Exports Mt 10.2 8.9 7.5 –15.7Closing stocks Mt 19 6 22 1 23 5 6 3Closing stocks Mt 19.6 22.1 23.5 6.3Stocks to se ratio % 83 5 92 9 94 9Stocks‐to‐use ratio % 83.5 92.9 94.9

l k ‘ ’ d /Cotlook ‘A’ index USc/lb 87.9 90.6 70.0 –22.7/Australia bArea harvested ’000 ha 442 392 210 –46 4Australia bArea harvested 000 ha 442 392 210 –46.4Lint production kt 1 018 885 470 46 9Lint production kt 1 018 885 470 –46.9E t kt 1 305 1 037 730 29 6Exports kt 1 305 1 037 730 –29.6– value A$m 2 695 2 352 1 484 –36.9 value A$m 2 695 2 352 1 484 36.9a August–July years. b July–June years. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.a August–July years. b July–June years. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; United States Department of AgricultureSources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; United States Department of Agriculture

‘‘

79

Wine grapes


Recent developments in markets for Australian winePeter Berry

Australian wine exports

Australia is the world’s fourth-largest exporter of wine by value, behind Italy, Spain and France, and the fifth-largest exporter by volume, behind those countries and Chile. Australian wine exports have grown markedly over the past few decades, from 39 million litres in 1988–89 to 717 million litres in 2013–14, reflecting a large increase in domestic wine grape production and wine-making capacity. Around 60 per cent of Australian wine production is exported. Australia’s share of world wine exports was estimated at 9 per cent in 2012.

Australian wine export volumes by type

ML

Forti�ed/other

Sparkling

Red

White

2013–14

2009–10

2005–06

2001–02

1997–98

1993–94

1989–90

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Strong global demand for wine and resulting higher prices from the early 1990s to the mid 2000s underpinned significant expansion in world wine production, and competition intensified from low-cost exporters such as Argentina, Chile and South Africa. Exports from these countries grew strongly over the period and prices fell substantially, as global wine supplies increased more rapidly than demand.

Australian wine export prices peaked in 2000–01 and have been declining since. Despite the marked decline in export prices, Australian wine production has not contracted. In response to lower export prices, Australian exporters have increased shipments of wine in bulk to reduce the freight cost on each litre of wine to Australia’s major export markets, especially the United Kingdom and the United States.

The increasing proportion of Australia’s higher-quality, mid-priced wines being shipped in bulk—together with increased competition from low-cost exporters on global markets—has reduced the average export price of Australian wine and driven a significant decline in wine export earnings. Over the 10 years to 2013–14, the volume of Australian wine exports increased by 7 per cent to 717 million litres but export values declined by 47 per cent to $1.9 billion. This compares with growth of 413 per cent in volumes (to 585 million litres) and 412 per cent in values (to $3.4 billion in 2014–15 dollars) in the 10 years to 2003–04.

continued ...

Wine grapes

80

Wine grapes


Recent developments in markets for Australian wine continued

Australian wine exports, volume and value

2014–15A$m

ML

2013–14

2009–10

2005–06

2001–02

1997–98

1993–94

1989–90

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000 Export value

Export volume (right axis)

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

In 2013–14 wine shipped in bulk accounted for around 57 per cent of total exports and the average unit value of all wine exported was $2.65 a litre. This compares with 2008–09, when bulk wine constituted 34 per cent of exports and the average unit value of all wine exports was $3.86 a litre (in 2014–15 dollars).

Australian wine export values by type

2014–15A$m

Forti�ed/other

Sparkling

Red

White

2013–14

2009–10

2005–06

2001–02

1997–98

1993–94

1989–90

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

Red wine export growth has been particularly strong relative to that of white wine and comprised 57 per cent of exports by volume and 68 per cent by value in 2013–14. This compares with 36 per cent by volume and 43 per cent by value in 1993–94. White wines accounted for 41 per cent of exports by volume and 28 per cent by value in 2013–14, compared with 64 per cent and 57 per cent, respectively, in 1993–94. In 2013–14 sparkling wines accounted for close to 2 per cent of wine exports and fortified wines for less than 1 per cent.

continued ...

81

Wine grapes



The stronger growth in red wine exports reflects a response to consumer demand and higher per litre export prices relative to white wine. The difference in export prices between red and white wine was largest from the late 1990s to the mid 2000s, leading to strong expansion in red wine production and exports over that period. Since then, increased global competition has more significantly reduced prices for red wine on major export markets and returns to Australian red wine exporters.

Australia’s export markets

Historically, the United Kingdom and continental Europe were Australia’s largest markets for wine exports. Over the three years to 2013–14, the United Kingdom was Australia’s largest export market by volume—with the United States second, ahead of continental Europe.

By value the United States was the largest market for Australian wine exports in the three years to 2013–14 ($482.7 million or 26 per cent of total wine exports). The United Kingdom was the second-largest destination ($393.1 million or 21 per cent), followed by China ($217.1 million or 12 per cent) and continental Europe ($211.3 million or 11 per cent). The value shares of the United Kingdom and continental Europe have been declining in recent years, mainly reflecting the increasingly large proportion of Australian wine shipped to these markets in bulk.

Australian wine export shares by destination, three-year average to 2013–14

Other 5%

New Zealand 4%

Hong Kong 1%

China 6%

Canada 7%

European Union(excluding United Kingdom) 16%

United Kingdom 34%

United States 27%

Volume 723 ML

Value $1 875 million

Other 12%

New Zealand 4%

Hong Kong 5%

China 12%

Canada 9%

European Union(excluding UnitedKingdom) 11%

United Kingdom 21%

United States 26%

continued ...

82

Wine grapes



In contrast with European markets, markets in Asia import a much larger proportion of higher-priced bottled wine from Australia (92 per cent by value in 2013–14) and comparatively little low-priced wine in bulk. This has resulted in higher unit values for Australian wine exports to the Asian region. Export volumes to Asia remain relatively low compared with those to the European and US markets, but growth has been strong in the past decade. The most prominent growth market in Asia has been China, where imports of Australian wine grew 1 783 per cent in the 10 years to 2013–14 (albeit from a low base).

Australian wine exports by destination, type and volume, three-year averages to 2013–14

ML

Forti�ed/otherSparkling

Red

White

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

other

Hong Kong

New Zealand

China

Canada

European Union(excluding

United Kingdom)

United States

UnitedKingdom

Unit value of Australian wine exports by destination, three-year averages to 2013–14

A$/L

other

Hong Kong

NewZealand

China

Canada

European Union(excluding

United Kingdom)

UnitedStates

UnitedKingdom

2

4

6

8

10 Average value $2.60/L

continued ...

83

Wine grapes



Developments in the global economy have also affected prices achieved for Australian wine exports. The value of Australian exports of bottled wines, particularly premium wines, declined following the global financial crisis of 2007–08 as weak economic activity constrained consumer spending. The high value of the Australian dollar also contributed to reduced export returns over the period.

Demand began to strengthen in 2009–10 and the average unit value of Australia’s bottled exports increased from an average of $3.96 a litre in 2007–08 to $5.20 a litre in 2013–14 (in 2014–15 dollars). This was largely driven by stronger demand in the markets of the United States, the United Kingdom and continental Europe. In addition, the value of exports to some relatively small but high-value markets such as the United Arab Emirates, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and Malaysia increased strongly. In spite of these improvements, the moderate recovery in prices for premium wine exports has not outweighed the effect on average prices of an increasing proportion of low-priced bulk wine in Australia’s total wine exports.

Competition in export markets

Australian wine exports face strong competition from Europe in the global market, with significant exports from France, Germany, Italy, Portugal and Spain. These countries ship a range of wine styles, from low-priced wine in bulk to ultra-premium bottled wines with unique regional attributes. Collectively, European wine exports grew by 59 per cent over the 10 years to 2013.

Other exporters, such as South Africa, the United States, Chile and Argentina, also produce a range of wine styles. However, as a group their exports tend to be weighted toward lower-priced bottled and bulk wines. Over the 10 years to 2013, wine exports from South Africa increased by more than 132 per cent to 658 million litres, the United States by 99 per cent to 1 075 million litres, Chile by 87 per cent to 890 million litres and Argentina by 59 per cent to 330 million litres.

Europe

Australia exports mainly low-priced bulk wine to Europe. In 2013–14 bulk wine accounted for 85 per cent of total Australian wine exports by volume to the United Kingdom and 72 per cent of exports to continental Europe. Australian bulk exports to Europe compete with both locally produced wine (mainly from France, Italy, Portugal and Spain) and with imports from South Africa, the United States and Chile. Over the past two decades, wine production in the European Union has declined by an average of around 1 per cent a year, while imports have grown by an average of around 3.5 per cent a year.

Since reaching a peak in 2006–07, Australian shipments of wine to Europe have declined by an average of 1 per cent a year, largely as a result of increasing competition from South Africa and Chile. Wine exports from these two countries have made strong gains in the European markets because they are more price-competitive than Australian exports.

Australia also exports premium bottled wines to Europe, accounting for 18 per cent of Australia’s total wine exports by volume to the region in 2013–14. Australia’s premium wine exports compete mainly with locally-produced premium wines and, to a lesser extent, with imports from the United States, South Africa and Chile. Australian wine exports to the European Union totalled $582 million in 2013–14.

continued ...

84

Wine grapes



Value of Australian wine exports to the European Union, three-year average to 2013–14

A$m

100

200

300

400

500

other

Germany

Sweden

Denmark

Netherlands

United Kingdom

North America

Australian wine export volumes to the United States and Canada have grown over the past two decades, with higher-priced bottled wine constituting 67 per cent and 51 per cent of wine exports, respectively, in 2013–14. However, the proportion of bulk wine exports to these markets has grown in recent years and, together with a higher Australian dollar, has placed downward pressure on average export prices. Australian wine competes in these markets with local wine production and exports from Europe (particularly France and Italy), for both premium and bulk wines, and Chile and Argentina, largely in the lower-priced market segment for both bottled and bulk wine.

Australian wine exports to the United States were valued at around $472 million in 2013–14. This compares with exports of $173 million to Canada in the same year.

China

Australian exports to China have been relatively limited but have grown rapidly. China, together with Hong Kong, is a relatively high-priced market that tends to import a larger proportion of premium bottled wines. In 2013–14 bottled wines accounted for 90 per cent of Australia’s exports by volume to this market. Australian wine exports to China totalled $302 million in 2013–14.

China does not have a culture of regular consumption of grape wine. However, rising incomes and more westernised diets are expected to increase demand for wine over time. Consumers in China prefer premium red wines, most often for drinking on special occasions or to serve as gifts. Premium red wines accounted for around 90 per cent of Australia’s exports to this market in 2013–14.

In the three years to 2012, France was the largest exporter of wine to China (including Hong Kong) with a 32 per cent share of the market, followed by Spain (16 per cent), Chile (12 per cent) and Australia (12 per cent). Chile negotiated a free trade agreement with China in 2005, under which tariffs on wine imports from Chile were removed on 1 January 2009.

continued ...

85

Wine grapes



Japan and Singapore

Japan and Singapore are high-value markets for Australian exports, with bottled wine accounting for 68 per cent and 95 per cent of Australian wine exports, respectively, in 2013–14. Australia’s major competitors in these markets are premium wine producers from Europe, particularly France. Australian exports of wine to Japan and Singapore were around $41 million and $53 million, respectively, in 2013–14.

Other Asia and the Middle East

Australia’s exports to other countries in Asia and the Middle East tend to be higher-priced bottled wines for consumption in hotels and restaurants. These markets are relatively limited and Australian exports to these countries face strong competition from premium wine producers, including France and Italy.

Australian wine imports

Australia imports wine from New Zealand, a range of countries in Europe, as well as from South Africa, Chile and the United States. Over the three years to 2013–14, Australia imported 85.3 million litres of wine, with an average unit value of $7.17 a litre. This compares with exports of 723.4 million litres at an average value of $2.60 a litre.

Australian wine imports by origin, type and volume, three-year average to 2013–14

ML

Forti�ed/otherSparkling

White

Red

10

20

30

40

50

60

United States

Germany

South Africa

Chile

Spain

Italy

France

New Zealand

New Zealand is the main source of Australia’s wine imports, accounting for more than 62 per cent of total imports by volume over the three years to 2013–14. Around 75 per cent of imported New Zealand wine was bottled. Wine imports from France (more than half of which were bottled sparkling wines) had the highest average import unit value over the period, at $15.18 a litre, followed by the United States ($7.20 a litre) and New Zealand ($5.93 a litre). The cheapest imports came from South Africa ($2.55 a litre) and Chile ($3.06 a litre).

continued ...

86

Wine grapes



The pattern of Australia’s wine imports reflects changing consumer tastes for different regional styles and varieties (for example, sauvignon blanc from New Zealand and high-end sparkling wines from France). A relatively high Australian dollar over the past few years has assisted the price-competitiveness of imported wines on the Australian market. In 2013–14 Australia’s total wine imports were valued at around $678 million.

Unit value of Australian wine imports by origin, three-year average to 2013–14

A$/L

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

UnitedStates

GermanySouthAfrica

ChileSpainItalyFranceNewZealand

Average value $7.17/L

Developing Australia’s export markets

Australian exports of wine to the more price-sensitive market segments of the United Kingdom, continental Europe and the United States will continue to face strong competition from local production, as well as exports from South Africa and South America. For Australia to increase its market shares in these destinations, Australian wine exports would need to become more price-competitive. Australian wine exports to major markets in the northern hemisphere are subject to higher freight costs than some other exporters, such as South Africa and South America.

Demand for premium wine is typically less price-sensitive than for bulk wine. However, strong competition from the traditional wine-exporting countries (especially France and Italy) is expected to continue. Other factors in addition to price affect consumer demand for premium wines, including reputation, quality and tastes. It will be important for the Australian wine industry to target consumer preferences in specific markets as well as maintain price-competitiveness. An expected gradual strengthening of economic growth in Europe and North America is likely to improve consumer demand for premium wines in these established markets.

Countries in the Asian region have considerable potential for future growth in wine consumption. Premium bottled wines—which made up almost 70 per cent of Australian exports by volume to the region in 2013–14—are expected to be the most rapidly growing market segment.

China is an especially large market in the Asian region, with significant potential to increase imports of wine. As consumer incomes continue to rise, China is likely to import a wider range of wines, both in terms of price and variety. Australia recently concluded a free trade agreement with China, which if ratified will result in the removal of tariffs on Australian wine over four years. This is expected to improve the price-competitiveness of Australian wine and assist Australian wine exports to China.

AgricultureLivestock


Beef and vealBeth Deards

• The weighted average saleyard price of beef cattle is forecast to increase by 12 per cent in 2014–15 to 328 cents a kilogram.

• Seasonal conditions will be a major influence on saleyard price movements towards mid 2015.

• Australian beef and veal exports are forecast to remain high in 2014–15 at just below 1.2 million tonnes (shipped weight).

• In the first four months of 2014–15 Australia exported almost 165 000 tonnes of beef and veal to the United States, 114 per cent more than in the same period in 2013–14.

Cattle prices supported by strong export demandThe Australian weighted average saleyard price of beef cattle is forecast to increase by 12 per cent in 2014–15 to 328 cents a kilogram (dressed weight). Despite continued high cattle slaughter, saleyard prices have been supported by strong export demand for beef and veal. In September 2014 the weighted average saleyard price rose to 347 cents a kilogram, the highest monthly average since December 2011, before easing slightly in October 2014 in response to high slaughter.

The Bureau of Meteorology’s three-month rainfall outlook for December 2014 to February 2015, issued on 27 November 2014, indicates drier than normal conditions across most major cattle producing regions, particularly in Queensland and New South Wales. Temperatures are also likely to be warmer than normal, which will adversely affect pasture growth and water availability. Given this seasonal outlook, Australian cattle slaughter is expected to be high in the next few months, placing downward pressure on saleyard prices.

Over the remainder of 2014–15, Australian saleyard cattle prices are expected to be significantly influenced by seasonal conditions. Assuming seasonal conditions improve towards mid 2015, producers are expected to commence herd rebuilding and this will increase demand for restocker cattle. This, and continued high export demand, will place upward pressure on saleyard prices.

If seasonal conditions fail to improve in the major cattle producing regions, high slaughter is expected to continue. Australia’s cattle industry is mostly pasture based and unfavourable seasonal conditions would result in a further weakening in carrying capacity, leading producers to continue liquidating their herds.

89

Beef and veal


Cattle slaughter to remain highAustralian cattle and calf slaughter is forecast to fall by only 1 per cent in 2014–15 to 9.4 million head. In the first three months of 2014–15 Australian cattle slaughter was 10 per cent higher than in the same period in 2013–14, driven by unfavourable seasonal conditions. In July 2014 below to very much below average rainfall in most of eastern Australia resulted in the number of cattle slaughtered rising to 936 000 head, the highest monthly slaughter since September 1982. Slaughter fell slightly in August with improved seasonal conditions in Queensland and New South Wales, but slaughter in Victoria remained high with very much below average rainfall received across the state. This was followed by generally below average rainfall in Queensland in September, resulting in higher slaughter in that state. In October 2014 conditions again were dry across most of eastern Australia.

Producers continued to offload a high number of female cattle for slaughter. Although the proportion of female cattle slaughtered fell to below 50 per cent in September 2014 for the first time since January 2014, this was still higher than the September average of around 43 per cent in the 10 years to 2013–14. Given the current seasonal outlook, high cattle slaughter is expected to continue at least to early 2015, particularly in Queensland and New South Wales. Assuming seasonal conditions improve towards mid 2015, cattle slaughter is expected to fall.

Cattle and calf slaughter and weighted average saleyard price

Slaughter

millionhead

2014–15Ac/kg

Price (right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

2

4

6

8

10

100

200

300

400

500

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

Assuming a gradual improvement in seasonal conditions towards mid 2015, the Australian beef cattle herd is forecast to be around 23.6 million head at 30 June 2015, a contraction of 5 per cent compared with the same time in 2014. For 2014–15 as a whole, Australian beef and veal production is forecast to fall by 1 per cent to 2.45 million tonnes.

90

Beef and veal


High exports to continue in 2014–15Australian beef and veal exports are forecast to remain high in 2014–15 at just below 1.2 million tonnes (shipped weight). Higher volumes in the first half of 2014–15 are expected to be largely offset by forecast lower shipments in the second half of the year, when Australian beef and veal production is forecast to fall. This assumes an improvement in seasonal conditions towards mid 2015.

In the first four months of 2014–15 export demand for Australian beef and veal grew strongly, with shipments rising 18 per cent year-on-year. In October 2014 a new monthly record was achieved at 122 500 tonnes. Over the first four months of 2014–15, exports to the United States increased by 114 per cent year-on-year. Shipments to Japan and South-East Asia also increased year-on-year by 9 per cent and 26 per cent, respectively. The average unit value of Australian beef shipments rose to $6.10 a kilogram in September 2014, 20 per cent higher than a year earlier.

Australian beef and veal exports, major export destinations

kt

China

Republicof Korea

Japan

United States2014–15f2013–14

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

f ABARES forecast.

US demand expected to drive Australian exportsHigher Australian beef and veal export volumes and values in the first four months of 2014–15 were primarily driven by strong demand from the United States. Over this period shipments to the United States accounted for 35 per cent of total Australian beef and veal exports, compared with 19 per cent in the same period in 2013–14. In September 2014 Australian beef and veal exports to the United States reached a monthly record of 47 000 tonnes (7 per cent higher than the previous record, set in July 2001). The average export unit value to the United States increased to a record $6.45 a kilogram in September, 33 per cent higher than in the same month last year.

Total US beef and veal imports between July and September 2014 were 52 per cent higher than in the same period in 2013. Shipments from Australia accounted for most of this growth, but larger volumes were also imported from Canada, New Zealand, Mexico, Nicaragua and Uruguay.

91

Beef and veal


US beef and veal imports, July to September

kt

20

40

60

80

100

120

UruguayNicaraguaMexicoNew ZealandCanadaAustralia

2014–15

2013–14

Higher US import demand for beef and veal is being driven by the widening gap between demand for manufacturing beef and domestic cow beef production, which is declining as a result of a significant fall in cow slaughter. Between July and September 2014 US cow slaughter was just below 1.3 million head, the lowest level during this period since 2005. Factors contributing to lower cow slaughter are improved seasonal conditions across most of the cattle country, high demand and prices for calves, and favourable milk prices. Also, following prolonged drought conditions, US cattle numbers are the lowest since the early 1950s. As a result, US cow slaughter is not expected to increase in the short term, so cow beef production will remain low and demand for manufacturing beef imports strong.

Monthly US cow slaughter

’000head

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Sep2014

Jun2014

Mar2014

Dec2013

Sep2013

Jun2013

Mar2013

For 2014–15 as a whole Australian beef and veal exports to the United States are forecast to rise by 35 per cent to 360 000 tonnes, which if realised would be the highest annual volume since 2004–05. These exports are expected to continue to attract high prices, but the seasonal return of New Zealand as a manufacturing beef exporter to the US market from late 2014 is likely to have a moderating effect on prices.

92

Beef and veal


Domestic demand to weaken in JapanAustralian beef and veal exports to Japan are forecast to fall by 4 per cent in 2014–15 to 270 000 tonnes. In 2014–15 total beef imports into Japan are expected to decline as a result of lower domestic consumption. A range of factors are pushing beef prices upwards in Japan, including lower domestic production, higher prices of imports from the United States and Australia, and an increase in Japan’s domestic consumption tax earlier this year. Australian exports to Japan between July and October 2014 were 9 per cent higher year-on-year, but exports are expected to fall in the second half of 2014–15. This forecast fall is expected to occur primarily in manufacturing beef exports, because continued high demand from the United States will limit the supply of this beef to Japan. Despite lower US beef production, higher value cuts from the United States are expected to maintain most of their market share in Japan.

Brisket retail prices in Japan

yen/kg

Domestic brisket (other than Wagyu)Imported Australian brisket

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

Imported US brisket

Sep2014

Jul2014

May2014

Mar2014

Jan2014

Nov2013

Sep2013

Jul2013

Australian beef remains competitive in Republic of KoreaAustralian beef and veal exports to the Republic of Korea are forecast to rise by 1 per cent in 2014–15 to 158 000 tonnes. With Korean beef production expected to fall and domestic consumption expected to remain steady, demand for beef and veal imports in the Republic of Korea is forecast to increase. Between July and September 2014, total Korean beef imports increased year-on-year by 16 per cent. Higher imports from the United States contributed most to this rise. Despite US beef in the Republic of Korea receiving a lower tariff rate, frozen cuts from Australia (which account for most Australian exports to the Republic of Korea) remain competitive. In September 2014 the average landed price of frozen beef from the United States was 41 per cent higher than for frozen beef from Australia.

China to import more beef from South AmericaAustralian beef and veal exports to China are forecast to fall by 19 per cent in 2014–15 to 130 000 tonnes, largely because of higher demand from Australia’s other export markets reducing supplies available for export to China. However, Chinese demand for beef imports is expected to increase in 2014–15 as growth in domestic consumption continues to exceed growth in production. Australia is forecast to remain the largest supplier to the Chinese market, but increased competition is expected from Uruguay, New Zealand, Argentina and possibly Brazil.

93

Beef and veal


Australian beef and veal exports to China in the September quarter 2014 were 37 per cent lower year-on-year. In contrast, imports of beef into China from Uruguay were 34 per cent higher, from New Zealand 7 per cent higher and from Argentina 152 per cent higher.

The Chinese Government made an official bilateral agreement with the Brazilian Government in November 2014 to lift import restrictions on Brazilian beef. Import restrictions had been in place since December 2012 after a case of bovine spongiform encephalopathy was detected in Brazil. China imported only 9 000 tonnes of beef from Brazil in 2012, but Brazil was China’s third largest supplier in that year and China’s beef imports had not yet seen the significant growth that occurred in 2013.

China beef and veal imports, July to September

kt

2014–15

2013–14

ArgentinaCanadaNew ZealandUruguayAustralia

10

20

30

40

50

Australia began exporting more chilled beef to China in July 2014, after the Chinese Government approved 10 Australian establishments to commence chilled beef exports on a trial basis. In August and September 2014, chilled beef accounted for around 8 per cent of total Australian beef exports to China. This was similar to the proportion of chilled beef exported before September 2013, when Australian chilled beef exports to China were halted.

Live cattle exports to remain highAustralian feeder and slaughter cattle exports are forecast to remain high in 2014–15 at around one million head. Between July and September 2014, Australia exported just under 300 000 head of live feeder and slaughter cattle (187 per cent more than in the same period in 2013). This was largely the result of strong demand from Indonesia and Vietnam and high supply of Australian cattle for export because of continued unfavourable seasonal conditions, particularly in Queensland. In the September quarter exports to Indonesia were 256 per cent higher and to Vietnam 222 per cent higher than in the same period in 2013.

The Australian Government is working with the Chinese Government to finalise an import health protocol for feeder and slaughter cattle. Once the protocol has been agreed, Australian exporters will be able to establish Exporter Supply Chain Assurance System approved supply chains in China.

94

Beef and veal


Australian feeder and slaughter cattle exports

’000head

f ABARES forecast.

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

Other

MalaysiaIsrael

VietnamIndonesia

200

400

600

800

1 000

Beef and veal outlookB f d l tl kBeefandvealoutlookit 2012 13 2013 14 2014 15 f % changeunit 2012–13 2013–14 s 2014–15 f % change

Cattle numbers a million 29.3 27.6 26.4 –4.3Cattle numbers a– beef million 26.5 24.7 23.6 –4.5 beef million 26.5 24.7 23.6 4.5Slaughterings ’000 8 457 9 473 9 350 –1 3Slaughterings 000 8 457 9 473 9 350 –1.3Production b kt 2 245 2 464 2 450 0 6Production b kt 2 245 2 464 2 450 –0.6E ( hi d i h )Exports (shipped weight)– to Japan kt 299 280 270 –3.6p ( pp g ) to Japan kt 299 280 270 3.6– to United States kt 207 266 360 35.3– to United States kt 207 266 360 35.3to China kt 92 160 130 –18 8– to China kt 92 160 130 –18.8t K R f kt 138 156 158 1 3– to Korea, Rep. of kt 138 156 158 1.3p

– total kt 1 014 1 184 1 180 –0.3 total– value A$m 4 871 6 265 6 672 6.5– value A$m 4 871 6 265 6 672 6.5Live feeder/slaughter cattle exports c ’000 513 996 1 000 0 4Live feeder/slaughter cattle exports c ’000 513 996 1 000 0.4

l A$m 339 780 822 5 4– value A$m 339 780 822 5.4P iPrice– saleyard Ac/kg 297 293 328 11.9– saleyard Ac/kg 297 293 328 11.9US import d USc/kg 439 439 540 23 0– US import d USc/kg 439 439 540 23.0J i US /k 589 593 634 6 9– Japan import e USc/kg 589 593 634 6.9p p

a At 30 June. b Carcass weight. c Includes buffalo. d Cow 90CL US cif price. e Chilled grassfed fullset Japan C&F a At 30 June. b Carcass weight. c Includes buffalo. d Cow 90CL US cif price. e Chilled grassfed fullset Japan C&F price f ABARES forecast s ABARES estimateprice. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture Canberra; Meat & LivestockSources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture, Canberra; Meat & Livestock Australia


Sheep meat and woolRobert Leith

• Demand for Australian sheep meat in the Middle East and the United States has increased in 2014–15, leading to a year-on-year increase in exports in the five months to November.

• Chinese demand for wool was weak in the September quarter, resulting in a fall in the wool indicator price relative to the same period last year.

• The Australian sheep flock is forecast to fall to 69.8 million head by June 2015, as total sheep turn-off is forecast to remain at historically high levels.

Strong export demand drives sheep and lamb pricesSaleyard lamb prices fell from a peak of 581 cents a kilogram in June 2014 to average 454 cents a kilogram in October, reflecting increased supply of lambs for slaughter during the peak spring lambing period. Following above-average autumn rainfall across south-east Australia, pasture conditions were generally favourable throughout winter. This resulted in high survival and growth rates for early-season lambs. Below-average rainfall between July and October caused pasture conditions to deteriorate in spring, compelling producers to sell rather than retain new lambs. Similarly, sheep prices fell by around 27 per cent from a June peak to average 280 cents a kilogram in October. Supply of ewes increased in spring as weaning of new-season lambs commenced and pasture conditions deteriorated.

Despite this seasonal increase in supply, average lamb prices in October 2014 were 15 per cent higher year-on-year and sheep prices were 37 per cent higher. This reflected stronger export demand, particularly from the United States and the Middle East. In the five months to November, lamb exports increased by 11 per cent year-on-year and mutton exports increased by 4 per cent.

Higher export demand is expected to result in increases in the weighted average saleyard prices for sheep and lambs for 2014–15 as a whole. The lamb price is forecast to increase by 7 per cent to average 510 cents a kilogram and the sheep price is forecast to increase by 22 per cent to 320 cents a kilogram.

96

Sheep meat and wool


Sheep and lamb saleyard price and slaughter

Sheep slaughter

Lamb slaughter

millionhead

2014–15Ac/kg

Lamb saleyard price (right axis)Sheep saleyard price (right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

150

300

450

600

750

5

10

15

20

25

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

Wool price falling in 2014–15Following a 3 per cent increase in 2013–14, the Australian Eastern Market Indicator (EMI) wool price is forecast to decrease by 2 per cent in 2014–15 to 1 045 cents a kilogram.

Despite the recent depreciation of the Australian dollar, wool prices have remained subdued in Australian dollar terms. When denoted in US dollars, the EMI dipped to US894 cents a kilogram in November, its lowest level since October 2010. This largely reflects a fall in demand for raw wool in China, the world’s largest importer, because of weak export demand for wool apparel.

Australian Eastern Market Indicator in Australian and US cents

EMI in Australian cents

Ac/kg

EMI in US cents(right axis)

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

USc/kg

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

28 Nov2014

29 Nov2013

30 Nov2012

25 Nov2011

26 Nov2010

97

Sheep meat and wool


Australian sheep flock to fall below 70 million headAt the beginning of 2014–15, the Australian sheep flock comprised an estimated 72.7 million head but is forecast to end the year at 69.8 million head. If realised, this will represent a fall of around 4 per cent. Annual turn-off (slaughter and live export) is forecast to remain at 34 million head, significantly higher than the average of 28.5 million head during the flock rebuilding period of 2009–10 to 2012–13.

Australian sheep flock

Tasmania

Queensland

Western Australia

South Australia

Victoria

New South Wales/Australian Capital Territory

millionhead

f ABARES forecast.

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

20

40

60

80

100

120

Relative profitability has driven the shift in primary output from wool to lamb, causing a substantial shift in flock demographics and size. An increased share of ewes at the expense of wethers has allowed lamb production to increase with a smaller flock. The share of ewes in the flock grew from around 46 per cent to 57 per cent between 1993 and 2013, while the share of lambs increased from 19 per cent to 27 per cent. Over the same period, the proportion of wethers (which are retained primarily for fleece) declined from 34 per cent to 15 per cent and the proportion of rams remained largely unchanged at 1 per cent. The relative profitability of producing meat and wool will continue to influence the composition of the flock.

Sheep type, by percentage share of Australian flock, as at June 30

Wethers

Lambs

Rams

Ewes

%

20

40

60

80

100

201320021993

98

Sheep meat and wool


Hot and dry conditions continue to drive turn-offIn contrast to favourable seasonal conditions in autumn, rainfall between July and October was below average across most of eastern and southern Australia, while temperatures were above average. This caused pasture conditions to deteriorate and water supplies to diminish. With below-average rainfall forecast for eastern Australia from December to February, slaughter is expected to remain at relatively high levels in the December and March quarters.

LambLamb slaughter increased by around 6 per cent year-on-year in the September quarter. The average lamb carcass weight for the quarter increased by 4 per cent year-on-year to 22 kilograms. Following a 4 per cent increase in 2013–14, lamb slaughter is expected to increase by 2 per cent in 2014–15 as a whole to 22.3 million head. Reflecting this, and an increase in average carcass weight to 21.9 kilograms, lamb production is forecast to increase by 3 per cent to 489 000 tonnes in 2014–15.

MuttonMutton production is forecast to fall by 3 per cent in 2014–15 to 221 000 tonnes, reflecting a 9 per cent fall in the supply of older sheep for slaughter and a 7 per cent increase in slaughter weight. Sheep slaughter rose by 58 per cent in 2012–13 and by 23 per cent in 2013–14, as ongoing hot and dry conditions in parts of the country reduced the stocking capacity of producers. The supply of sheep for slaughter is expected to remain relatively high in 2014–15 as a whole because below average rainfall is forecast in the next few months.

Shorn wool production to fallAustralian shorn wool production is forecast to fall by 4 per cent in 2014–15 to around 336 000 tonnes. With the sheep flock expected to decline, the number of sheep shorn is forecast to fall to 76 million head. Partially offsetting this fall, wool cut per head is forecast to increase slightly. Although below-average rainfall has occurred in many areas, pasture conditions have improved in some areas compared with 2013–14 and this has led to higher wool yields.

Australian shorn wool production and Eastern Market Indicator wool price

Shorn woolproduction

ktgreasy

2014–15Ac/kg

EMI (right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

100

200

300

400

500

300

600

900

1 200

1 500

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

99

Sheep meat and wool


Sheep meat export earnings to rise as demand growsAustralian lamb exports are forecast to increase by 6 per cent to 240 000 tonnes, while the value of exports is forecast to increase by 12 per cent to around $1.6 billion. This reflects an increase in Australian lamb production and strong demand from the United States and the Middle East, which led to higher lamb exports in the first five months of 2014–15. Lamb exports to China fell by 5 per cent. In the five months to November 2014, total exports increased by 11 per cent year-on-year to 103 000 tonnes. Exports exceeded 24 000 tonnes in October; this was the highest monthly volume on record. The average export unit value of lamb increased by 9 per cent year-on-year in the September quarter.

Australian lamb exports

Other

European Union

Asia (excluding China)

China

United States

Middle East

kt

f ABARES forecast.

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

50

100

150

200

250

Mutton exports are forecast to fall by 5 per cent in 2014–15 to 172 000 tonnes, reflecting a fall in domestic production. In contrast, the value of mutton exports is forecast to increase by 7 per cent to $800 million. This mainly reflects higher export prices. China and the Middle East are the two largest export destinations for Australian mutton. In the five months to November 2014, mutton exports to the Middle East increased by 61 per cent year-on-year and exports to China fell by 29 per cent.

Middle EastLamb exports to the Middle East are forecast to increase in 2014–15, continuing the growth trend since 2004–05. In the five months to November, exports to the region grew by 12 per cent year-on-year to 28 900 tonnes, of which 60 per cent were chilled carcasses.

Major export destinations in the region include Jordan and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries—United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Oman. Demand growth in the Middle East, particularly in GCC countries, has largely been driven by expansion of the middle class and increasing expatriate populations. This has spurred growth in the foodservice and supermarket sectors. Increased spending power of the region’s growing population has contributed to increased demand for protein-rich diets and a growing preference for lamb over mutton.

100

Sheep meat and wool


Australia is the dominant supplier (from outside the region) of lamb into the Middle East. Its market share is considerably larger than New Zealand’s. New Zealand and Australia had roughly equal market shares in the Middle East during the six years to 2009–10. However, New Zealand has exported considerably more lamb to China since 2010–11 and its exports to other major markets such as the Middle East and the European Union have declined.

Lamb exports to the Middle East from Australia and New Zealand

New Zealand

Australia

kt

f ABARES forecast.

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

20

40

60

80

100

United StatesThe United States is Australia’s largest export market for lamb in value terms. The United States imports significantly more high-value chilled cuts of Australian lamb relative to the other major export markets. Because of this, the export unit value of lamb exported to the United States is around 60 per cent higher than that of lamb exported to the Middle East and more than double that of lamb exported to China.

Australian lamb exports to the United States increased by 25 per cent year-on-year in the five months to November 2014, while the average export unit value for the September quarter increased by 9 per cent. The increased US imports reflect, at least partly, increased price-competitiveness of Australian lamb in response to the recent depreciation of the Australian dollar. Additionally, beef prices in the United States rose considerably between June and October, reflecting a slowdown in domestic production. Australia exported 5 100 tonnes of lamb to the United States in October 2014. This was the largest monthly volume to that market since 2007. Lamb exports to the United States for 2014–15 as a whole are forecast to increase by 11 per cent to 47 000 tonnes, at a value of around $500 million.

101

Sheep meat and wool


Live sheep exports increase as markets reopenAustralian exports of live sheep increased by 36 per cent year-on-year in the September quarter 2014, driven largely by the resumption of trade with Bahrain and Egypt. Exports to the United Arab Emirates increased by 70 per cent to 96 000 head, while exports to Qatar remained largely unchanged at 100 000 head. Exports to Kuwait fell by 5 per cent to 164 000 head.

Australia exported 105 000 head of sheep to Bahrain in the September quarter, a market where trade was suspended during the same period in the previous year. Since reopening in April 2014, Bahrain has been the third-largest market for Australian sheep behind Kuwait and Qatar.

Australian sheep exports to Egypt recommenced during the September quarter 2014. Exports to Egypt totalled 31 000 head during the quarter.

Following an increase of 1 per cent in 2013–14, live sheep exports are forecast to increase by 19 per cent in 2014–15 to 2.4 million head. The value of sheep exports is forecast to rise by 62 per cent to $300 million, driven by growth in both volume and export prices.

Live sheep exports

millionhead

Other

Qatar

Bahrain

JordanSaudi ArabiaKuwait

1

2

3

4

5

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

f ABARES forecast.

Wool exports fall as demand for woollen apparel decreasesReflecting weaker demand, Australian wool exports are forecast to decline by 4 per cent in 2014–15 to 410 000 tonnes (greasy equivalent). The value of exports is forecast to fall by 6 per cent to $2.7 billion, with expected lower export prices. Australian wool exports in the September quarter 2014 fell by 1 per cent year-on-year to 93 400 tonnes, while the export unit value fell by 7 per cent. Exports to the European Union increased by 8 per cent year-on-year to 8 900 tonnes, while exports to India remained largely unchanged at 6 000 tonnes.

102

Sheep meat and wool


Australian wool exports, by destination

ktgreasy

Other

Czech Republic

Italy

IndiaChina

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

f ABARES forecast.

100

200

300

400

500

600

Exports to China, Australia’s largest export market for wool, fell by 2 per cent in the September quarter to 68 000 tonnes, with a decline of 9 per cent in export prices. Weaker demand for Chinese wool apparel, in both the domestic retail market and major export markets, has resulted in lower demand for Australian raw wool. The United States is China’s largest export market for apparel. US imports of Chinese wool apparel in the September quarter fell by 1 per cent year-on-year, and were 31 per cent below their peak in 2010. This decline in wool imports is in contrast to continued growth in demand for apparel made from synthetic fibres. US imports of Chinese synthetic fibre apparel increased by 12 per cent year-on-year in the September quarter 2014 and were around 77 per cent higher than in the September quarter 2008.

US imports of Chinese apparel, September quarter

Wool apparel

millionm2

millionm2

Synthetic fibreapparel (right axis)

20

40

60

80

100

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

2014201320122011201020092008

103

Sheep meat and wool


Sheep meat and wool outlookO l k f h d lOutlookforsheepmeatandwoolOutlookforsheepmeatandwoolunit 2012–13 2013–14 s 2014–15 f % changeunit 2012 13 2013 14 s 2014 15 f g

Sheep numbers a million 75 5 72 7 69 8 – 4 0Sheep numbers a million 75.5 72.7 69.8 – 4.0Sheep shorn million 81 9 79 2 75 8 4 3Sheep shorn million 81.9 79.2 75.8 – 4.3Sl h iSlaughterings Lambs ’000 21 122 21 899 22 300 1.8

g gLambs 000 21 122 21 899 22 300 1.8Sheep ’000 8 192 10 066 9 200 – 8.6Sheep 000 8 192 10 066 9 200 – 8.6Production bL b k 457 474 489 3 2Production bLamb kt 457 474 489 3.2Mutton kt 183 228 221 – 3.1Mutton Wool production (greasy)– shorn kt 361 350 336 – 4 0Wool production (greasy)– shorn kt 361 350 336 – 4.0other kt 75 81 80 1 2– other c kt 75 81 80 – 1.2t t l kt 435 431 416 3 5– total kt 435 431 416 – 3.5

EExportsLamb kt swt 201 226 240 6.2p

Lamb kt swt 201 226 240 6.2Mutton kt swt 144 181 172 – 5 0Mutton kt swt 144 181 172 – 5.0Total sheep meat kt swt 344 408 412 1 0Total sheep meat kt swt 344 408 412 1.0

l $ 1 564 2 219 2 445 10 2– value $m 1 564 2 219 2 445 10.2Live sheep ’000 2 000 2 020 2 400 18.8Live sheep – value $m 194 185 300 62.2 value $m 194 185 300 62.2WoolWoolvolume (gr equiv ) kt 437 428 410 4 2– volume (gr. equiv.) kt 437 428 410 – 4.2t Chi kt 341 324 310 4 3– to China kt 341 324 310 – 4.3

$– value d $m 2 869 2 877 2 700 – 6.2 value d $PricesLambs e Ac/kg 386 476 510 7 1PricesLambs e Ac/kg 386 476 510 7.1Sheep Ac/kg 187 262 320 22 1Sheep e Ac/kg 187 262 320 22.1Eastern Market Indicator g Ac/kg 1 035 1 071 1 045 – 2.4Eastern Market Indicator g / ga At 30 June. b Carcass weight. c Includes wool on sheepskins, fellmongered and slipe wool.a At 30 June. b Carcass weight. c Includes wool on sheepskins, fellmongered and slipe wool. d Balance of payments basis e Saleyard prices f ABARES forecast g Clean equivalent s ABARESd Balance of payments basis. e Saleyard prices. f ABARES forecast. g Clean equivalent. s ABARES ti testimate.

Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Australian Wool Exchange; Department of Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Australian Wool Exchange; Department of Agriculture, CanberraAgriculture, Canberra


DairyOwen McCarthy

• World dairy prices are forecast to fall in 2014–15 as a result of increased supplies and slower growth in global demand.

• Milk production in many key dairy exporting countries is forecast to increase in 2014–15 in response to lower feed costs and favourable seasonal conditions.

• Growth in demand for dairy product imports is expected to remain relatively strong in South-East Asia, the Middle East and North Africa.

• Australian milk production is forecast to increase by around 2 per cent in 2014–15.

World dairy prices to fall in 2014–15The decline in world dairy product prices that began in January 2014 continued in the second quarter of 2014–15. The main reasons for this decline were increases in supply from key exporting countries and subdued growth in global demand.

World dairy product prices are forecast to fall by between 19 per cent and 38 per cent in 2014–15 as global supply continues to increase at a more rapid pace than global import demand. The world prices of skim milk powder and whole milk powder are forecast to fall by 35 per cent and 38 per cent to average US$2 950 and US$3 000 a tonne, respectively. Cheese prices are forecast to fall by 19 per cent (to US$3 900) and butter prices by 24 per cent (to US$3 400). At 31 October 2014, milk powder prices were the lowest in five years.

World dairy prices

US$/t

Skim milk powderWhole milk powderCheeseButter

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

Oct2014

Oct2013

Oct2012

Oct2011

Oct2010

Oct2009

Oct2008

Oct2007

105

Dairy


Global milk supplies continue to growMilk production in many major dairy producing and exporting countries is forecast to increase in 2014–15. Despite falling farmgate prices, increased feed grain use as a result of lower feed costs and favourable seasonal conditions is resulting in improved milk yields.

European UnionEU milk production is forecast to increase by around 1 per cent in the 2014–15 marketing year (April to March) as a result of improved milk yields per cow because of lower feed costs and favourable seasonal conditions. The dairy herd is estimated to have increased as producers prepare for EU milk production quotas to end on 1 April 2015. However, falling world dairy product prices and resulting lower farmgate milk prices are likely to moderate the extent of this herd expansion. The average farmgate milk price fell by 3 per cent year-on-year in the first five months of the 2014–15 marketing year.

The Russian Federation import embargo implemented on 7 August 2014 remains in place, with cheese and butter markets most affected. Before the embargo, the Russian Federation purchased around a third of EU cheese exports and a quarter of EU butter exports. Between August and October 2014 the EU monthly average price of butter fell by around 9 per cent, while EU monthly average prices of gouda and edam cheeses fell by around 6 per cent and 8 per cent, respectively.

The European Commission responded to the embargo by offering market support in the form of Private Storage Aid (PSA) in September. Butter, skim milk powder and some cheeses were eligible. Shortly after the scheme opened, storage aid for cheeses ceased as a result of heavy take-up (particularly by Italy). Two-thirds of the maximum volume of cheese storage for the European Union as a whole was reached in less than a month. Manufacturers are now expected to divert milk supplies from cheese production into the production of skim milk powder and butter, which are eligible for PSA until the end of 2014.

EU dairy product manufacturers have redirected (at lower prices) cheese and butter previously destined for the Russian Federation to other markets such as the United States and the Middle East. EU cheese exports are expected to fall by more than 10 per cent in 2014 because exporters are unable to redirect all cheese produced for the Russian Federation to alternative markets. In contrast, butter exports are expected to be 13 per cent higher in 2014, year-on-year, following increased shipments to the United States and the Russian Federation before the embargo was implemented.

In the first eight months of 2014, skim milk powder production increased by 21 per cent and whole milk powder production increased by 12 per cent year-on-year, largely driven by strong import demand from Algeria and China. In the same period, cheese production and butter production each increased by around 2 per cent.

106

Dairy


United StatesMilk production in the United States is expected to increase by 2 per cent in 2014 to 93.5 million tonnes and is forecast to increase by a further 2 per cent in 2015. This will largely be driven by an increase in the size of the dairy herd because lower feed prices are expected to offset the impact of forecast lower farmgate milk prices in 2015.

Between March and August 2014, US exports of butter fell by almost 70 per cent, while exports of cheese fell by around 13 per cent as a result of higher domestic demand for dairy products. US exports of butter and cheese are expected to continue to decrease in 2015 in response to forecast lower world dairy product prices. Domestic product prices are expected to remain favourable relative to world prices, which will encourage dairy product manufacturers to increase sales on the domestic market. US butter exports are expected to face increased competition from EU butter exports in the Middle East as the European Union diverts some shipments to this region in response to the Russian Federation’s import ban.

US butter and cheese exports

kt

CheeseButter

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Aug2014

Apr2014

Dec2013

Aug2013

Apr2013

Dec2012

Aug2012

Apr2012

New ZealandMilk production in New Zealand is forecast to increase by 5 per cent in 2014–15 (June to May), largely driven by favourable spring pasture conditions and an increase in the size of the dairy herd.

Farmgate milk prices in New Zealand are forecast to fall in 2014–15 in response to declining world dairy product prices. In the first three months of the season, farmgate milk prices averaged 26 per cent lower year-on-year. Falling farmgate prices are unlikely to affect milk production growth until late in the season because producers have already purchased large supplementary feed stocks and pasture growth has been supported by favourable seasonal conditions.

107

Dairy


New Zealand milk production, year-on-year monthly change

kt

–500–400–300–200–100

0100200300400

Aug2014

Feb2014

Aug2013

Feb2013

Aug2012

Feb2012

ArgentinaArgentinean milk production declined year-on-year by 2 per cent in the first half of 2014 as a result of excessively wet conditions in winter and autumn. However, milk production has since increased in response to a favourable milk-to-feed price ratio. Argentinean exports of dairy products are expected to fall in 2014, because exports were lower in the first half of the year.

Assuming a return to average seasonal conditions, Argentinean milk production is expected to increase by 2 per cent in 2015. Exports are expected to increase in 2015 as a result of increased milk supplies.

Demand in developing countries to support tradeImport demand from the two largest dairy product importers (China and the Russian Federation) is expected to grow at a slower rate in 2014–15 than in 2013–14. In contrast, relatively strong growth in import demand is expected in developing economies in South-East Asia, the Middle East and North Africa in 2014–15.

ChinaAfter record growth in import demand in late 2013 and early 2014, China’s imports began to slow in mid 2014. This was mainly driven by the accumulation of large commercial stocks and increases in domestic milk production. In the first quarter of 2014, China imported around 331 000 tonnes of whole milk powder (up 72 per cent year-on-year) and 90 000 tonnes of skim milk powder (up 100 per cent year-on-year). In contrast, China’s imports of milk powders in September 2014 declined by 53 per cent, compared with September 2013. Imports are expected to remain lower, year-on-year, for the rest of 2014.

In 2015 China’s imports of dairy products are expected to increase slightly as domestic demand increases and current inventories decline. Some of this increased demand is expected to be met by increased domestic milk production because of improvements in milk yields.

108

Dairy


China milk powder imports

Whole milk powder

Skim milk powder

kt

f ABARES forecast.

200

400

600

800

1 000

2014f2012201020082006200420022000

Russian FederationThe Russian Federation’s one-year embargo on selected agricultural imports from the United States, the European Union, Australia, Canada and Norway has remained in force since August 2014. As a result of the embargo, the Russian Federation is expected to increase imports from Belarus, New Zealand and South America and is seeking to import products from new suppliers such as India and Turkey.

Russian Federation imports of most dairy products are expected to increase in 2014, driven largely by growing domestic demand. However, cheese imports are expected to decrease by around 8 per cent in 2014 as the Russian Federation struggles to replace imports from countries subject to the embargo. Imports are expected to grow at a slower rate in 2015, mainly reflecting the impact on growth in domestic demand of slower economic growth and a significantly weaker Russian ruble.

A further marginal decrease in milk production in the Russian Federation is forecast for 2015, following an estimated 1 per cent decrease in 2014. The capacity of domestic producers to increase milk production is limited in the short term because more than 50 per cent of the dairy herd is on small-scale farms with insufficient infrastructure.

ASEANASEAN’s dairy imports are expected to increase in 2015 as a result of assumed economic growth and falling global dairy product prices. Domestic milk production remains limited, encouraging increased imports to meet domestic demand. The region is a large importer of milk powders, particularly skim milk powder. Imports of skim milk powder in 2014 are estimated at 520 000 tonnes, a rise of 2 per cent from 2013.

Middle East and North AfricaDairy product imports into the Middle East and North Africa are estimated to have increased in 2014 in response to falling global dairy product prices. Algerian imports of milk powders were more than 50 per cent higher in the first eight months of 2014 than at the same time in 2013.

Imports into the region are expected to increase in 2015, driven by strong consumption growth outpacing increases in domestic milk production.

109

Dairy


Australian dairy outlookThe Australian farmgate price of milk is forecast to decrease by 14 per cent in 2014–15 to average around 44 cents a litre. This fall will be driven largely by forecast lower world dairy product prices. Partially offsetting lower world prices is an assumed depreciation of the Australian dollar, which will support the Australian dollar value of producer returns.

Australian milk production is forecast to increase by around 2 per cent to 9.4 billion litres in 2014–15. Dairy cow numbers are expected to remain largely unchanged, so this increase will reflect improvements in the milk yield per cow. Producers in southern export-oriented regions are expected to drive growth in production. Production in northern New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia is expected to decline because it has been adversely affected by seasonal conditions. Australian milk production was 3 per cent higher year-on-year in the first quarter of 2014–15. This was driven largely by increased milk production in Tasmania and parts of Victoria, including northern Victoria and Gippsland, as a result of regional dairy herd expansion and favourable seasonal conditions. Milk production in South Australia and western Victoria was constrained by dry seasonal conditions in spring.

Australian milk production and dairy cows

Milk production

ML’000head

Dairy cows(right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

400

800

1 200

1 600

2 000

2 400

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

Australian exportsThe total value of Australian exports is forecast to decline by around 20 per cent to $2.2 billion in 2014–15 as a result of expected lower prices in world markets. This follows an increase of 22 per cent in 2013–14.

Australian exports of skim milk powder to Indonesia are forecast to increase in 2014–15, supported by lower global prices and the weaker Australian dollar. In the first quarter of 2014–15, Australian exports of skim milk powder to Indonesia were 10 358 tonnes, a year-on-year increase of 180 per cent. Indonesia is Australia’s largest export destination for skim milk powder, with exports reaching 25 586 tonnes in 2013–14.

110

Dairy


Dairy outlookD i tl kDairyoutlooki 20 2 3 20 3 20 f % h

Dairyoutlookunit 2012–13 2013–14 s 2014–15 f % change

AustraliaCow numbers a ’000 1 688 1 690 1 693 0 2AustraliaCow numbers a ’000 1 688 1 690 1 693 0.2Milk yields L/cow 5 450 5 467 5 538 1 3Milk yields L/cow 5 450 5 467 5 538 1.3P d tiProductionTotal milk ML 9 201 9 239 9 375 1.5Total milk ML 9 201 9 239 9 375 1.5– market sales ML 2 452 2 455 2 515 2.4 market sales ML 2 452 2 455 2 515 2.4– manufacturing ML 6 749 6 784 6 860 1 1– manufacturing ML 6 749 6 784 6 860 1.1Butter b kt 118 116 120 3 4Butter b kt 118 116 120 3.4Ch kt 338 311 310 0 3Cheese kt 338 311 310 –0.3Whole milk powder kt 109 126 117 –7.1Whole milk powder kt 109 126 117 7.1Skim milk powder kt 224 211 220 4.3Skim milk powder kt 224 211 220 4.3Farmgate milk price Ac/L 40 51 44 –14 1Farmgate milk price Ac/L 40 51 44 –14.1Value of exports A$m 2 232 2 725 2 191 19 6Value of exports A$m 2 232 2 725 2 191 –19.6W ld iWorld pricesButter US$/t 3 727 4 498 3 400 –24.4

pButter US$/t 3 727 4 498 3 400 24.4Cheese US$/t 4 150 4 817 3 900 –19.0Cheese US$/t 4 150 4 817 3 900 –19.0Skim milk powder US$/t 3 731 4 513 2 950 –34 6Skim milk powder US$/t 3 731 4 513 2 950 –34.6Wh l ilk d US$/t 3 831 4 833 3 000 37 9Whole milk powder US$/t 3 831 4 833 3 000 –37.9a At 30 June. b Includes the butter equivalent of butter oil, butter concentrate, ghee and dry a At 30 June. b Includes the butter equivalent of butter oil, butter concentrate, ghee and dry butterfat. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.butterfat. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Dairy AustraliaSources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Dairy Australia

111Department of Agriculture, Fisheries & Forestry Document Title Goes Here

Running Main Header Milo Pro Medium 8ptRunning Sub Header Milo Pro Light 8pt

Statistical tables


Figures

1 Contribution to GDP 113

2 Markets for Australian merchandise exports 113

3 Sources of Australian merchandise imports 114

4 Principal markets for Australian agricultural, forestry and fisheries exports (nominal) 115

5 Contribution to exports by sector, balance of payments basis 121

Tables

1 Indexes of prices received by farmers 118

2 Indexes of prices paid by farmers, and terms of trade 119

3 Farm costs and returns 120

4 Volume of production indexes 122

5 Industry gross value added 122

7 All banks lending to business 123

6 Employment 123

8 Rural indebtedness to financial institutions 124

9 Annual world indicator prices of selected commodities 124

10 Gross unit values of farm products 125

11 World production, consumption, stocks and trade for selected commodities 126

12 Agricultural, fisheries and forestry commodity production 128

13 Gross value of farm, fisheries and forestry production 130

14 Crop and forestry areas and livestock numbers 132

15 Average farm yields 133

16 Volume of agricultural and fisheries exports 134

17 Value of agricultural and fisheries exports (fob) 136

18 Agricultural exports to China (fob) 138

19 Agricultural exports to Indonesia (fob) 139

20 Agricultural exports to Japan (fob) 140

21 Agricultural exports to Republic of Korea (fob) 141

22 Agricultural exports to the United States (fob) 142

23 Volume of fisheries products exports 143

24 Value of fisheries products exports (fob) 144

25 Volume of fisheries products imports 145

26 Value of fisheries products imports 146

27 Value of Australian fisheries products trade, by selected countries 147

28 Volume of forest products exports 148

29 Value of forest products exports (fob) 149

30 Volume of forest products imports 150

31 Value of forest products imports 151

32 Value of Australian forest products trade, by selected countries 152


GDP, exports

FIGURE 2 Markets for Australian merchandise exports in 2013–14 dollars

China 8% China 22%

Japan 18% Japan 10%

ASEAN 15% ASEAN 19%

Other Asia 12% Other Asia 13%

European Union 28 10% European Union 28 7%

Middle East 9% Middle East 9%

United States 12% United States 7%

Other 16% Other 13%

Japan 18% Japan 18%

China 9% China 36%

Korea, Rep. of 8% Korea, Rep. of 7%


New Zealand 7% New Zealand 3%

India 4% India 3%

European Union 28 12% European Union 28 4%

Other 33% Other 25%

Japan 32% Japan 17%

Hong Kong 36% Hong Kong 22%

China 4% China 3%


Singapore 2% Singapore 3%

Taiwan 5% Taiwan 1%

Vietnam 0% Vietnam 43%

Other 12% Other 8%

2013–142003–04

Total $143.4b $272.9b

$34.4b $41.1bAgriculture

$2.1b $1.3bFisheries

FIGURE 1 Contribution to GDP Australia, chain volume measures, reference year 2012–13

Services 76%

Mining 8%

Building and construction 8%

Manufacturing 6%

Agriculture, fishing and forestry 2%

Services 75%

Manufacturing 9%

Mining 6%

Building and construction 7%

Agriculture, fishing and forestry 3%

2013–14

$1 558.4b

2003–04

$1 178.2b


Import markets

FIGURE 3 Sources of Australian merchandise imports in 2013–14 dollars

United States 15%

Japan 12%

China 12%

Germany 6%

Malaysia 4%

Singapore 4%

New Zealand 4%

Other 43%

United States 10%

Japan 7%

China 20%

Germany 5%

Malaysia 4%

Singapore 5%

New Zealand 3%

Other 46%

China 4%

ASEAN 13%

Other Asia 4%

European Union 28 33%

New Zealand 18%

United States 13%

Other 15%

China 6%

ASEAN 21%

Other Asia 4%

European Union 28 24%

New Zealand 19%

United States 11%

Other 15%

2013–142003–04

Total $172.3b $251.7b

$7.8b $15.0bAgriculture

$1.5b $2.0bFisheriesThailand 20%

New Zealand 16%

China 6%

Vietnam 8%

Malaysia 2%

United States 3%

Other 45%

Thailand 21%

New Zealand 11%

China 18%

Vietnam 12%

Malaysia 5%

United States 4%

Other 29%


Export markets

FIGURE 4 Principal markets for Australian agricultural, forestry and fisheries exports (nominal)

Quantity wheat

kt

Value wheat

$m

Quantity barley

kt

Value barley

$m

Quantity sugar

kt

Value sugar

$m

Quantity wine

ML

Value wine

$m

2013–142003–04

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000

China

Saudi Arabia

Korea, Rep. of

Japan

United ArabEmirates

Vietnam

China

Saudi Arabia

Korea, Rep. of

Japan

United ArabEmirates

Vietnam

Indonesia

Korea, Rep. of

Malaysia

Japan

United States

New Zealand

Indonesia

Korea, Rep. of

Malaysia

Japan

United States

New Zealand

50 100 150 200 250 200 400 600 1 000800

Indonesia

Vietnam

Iraq

Korea, Rep. of

Japan

Iran

Indonesia

100 200 300 400

500 1 000 2 5001 500 2 000 200 400 600 800 1 000

200 600400 800 1 000 1 200

200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200

United Kingdom

United States

Canada

New Zealand

China

Hong Kong

Vietnam

Iraq

Korea, Rep. of

Japan

Iran

United Kingdom

United States

Canada

New Zealand

China

Hong Kong

continued ...


Export markets

FIGURE 4 Principal markets for Australian agricultural, forestry and fisheries exports (nominal) continued

Quantity wool

kt

Value wool

$m

Quantity beef and veal

kt

Value beef and veal

$m

Quantity sheep meat

kt

Value sheep meat

$m

Quantity cheese

kt

Value cheese

$m

2013–142003–04

China

India

Italy

Czech Republic

Korea, Rep. of

Taiwan

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

China

India

Italy

Czech Republic

Korea, Rep. of

Taiwan

Japan

United States

China

China

Saudi Arabia

United States

EuropeanUnion 28

Japan

United ArabEmirates

Japan

China

Malaysia

Singapore

Korea, Rep. of

Hong Kong

20 40 60 80 100 10050 150 200 300250 350

100 200 300 400 500 1 000 1 500 2 000

20 40 60 80 100

Japan

China

Malaysia

Singapore

Korea, Rep. of

Hong Kong

100 200 300 400 500

Korea, Rep. of

Taiwan

EuropeanUnion 28

Japan

United States

China

Korea, Rep. of

Taiwan

EuropeanUnion 28

China

Saudi Arabia

United States

EuropeanUnion 28

Japan

United ArabEmirates

continued ...


Export markets

FIGURE 4 Principal markets for Australian agricultural, forestry and fisheries exports (nominal) continued

Quantity paper and paperboard

kt

Value paper and paperboard

$m

Quantity edible fish

kt

Value edible fish

$m

Quantity edible crustaceans and molluscs Value edible crustaceans and molluscs

$m

2013–142003–04

50 100 150 200 250 300

New Zealand

United States

China

Philippines

South Africa

New Zealand

United States

China

Philippines

South Africa

50 100 150 200 250

Japan

New Zealand

Hong Kong

Thailand

United States

China

Hong Kong

Japan

China

Singapore

Malaysia

Taiwan

100 200kt

50 100 150 200 250 300

3 6 9 12 15

2 4 6 8 1210 300 400

Japan

New Zealand

Hong Kong

Thailand

United States

China

Hong Kong

Japan

China

Singapore

Malaysia

Taiwan


TABLE 1 Indexes of prices received by farmers Australia

STATISTICS

2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 s 2014–15 f

barley 108.3 135.8 131.7 173.4 165.3 167.7 canola 114.2 141.1 133.1 142.1 129.9 114.5 grain sorghum 115.9 125.8 111.6 148.8 171.3 185.3 lupins 137.5 136.9 118.7 173.5 191.7 178.3 oats 116.9 143.2 147.7 172.9 179.3 170.2 wheat 110.4 130.1 114.6 158.3 168.8 158.9Total grains a 109.0 126.3 115.7 147.9 151.8 145.1Cotton 98.4 103.6 110.8 98.1 105.7 101.0Hay 181.5 151.1 133.0 144.9 160.9 168.9Fruit 146.6 181.8 181.4 156.5 158.8 163.1Sugar 137.8 128.0 147.1 130.0 111.7 113.4Vegetables 150.3 167.3 161.3 172.8 174.1 178.8Total crops sector 108.4 121.9 117.8 129.8 131.3 129.1

cattle 160.0 172.6 173.3 163.3 161.4 180.4 lambs b 218.7 255.4 250.8 182.8 234.5 251.2 sheep 343.3 438.0 390.3 200.0 288.6 356.5 live sheep for export 248.4 304.6 343.7 247.6 233.4 319.1 pigs 147.1 135.7 134.5 132.5 147.4 147.1 poultry 113.8 110.1 108.3 114.4 115.4 116.1 total 163.7 175.6 175.0 158.6 167.7 182.6

wool 116.0 158.4 169.2 144.4 149.8 145.6 milk 125.2 144.8 140.9 134.3 167.5 149.4 eggs 105.5 104.2 104.2 107.4 112.7 115.8 total 120.0 144.6 146.0 134.9 155.1 144.5Store and breeding stock 168.4 194.0 199.5 173.8 177.4 194.7Total livestock sector 145.7 162.9 163.4 148.6 161.2 167.3Total prices received 124.4 139.5 137.2 138.5 144.6 145.9a Total for the group includes commodities not separately listed. b Lamb saleyard indicator weight 18–22 kilograms. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Note: The indexes for commodity groups are calculated on a chained weight basis using Fisher’s ideal index with a reference year of 1997–98 = 100. Indexes for most individual commodities are based on annual gross unit value of production. Prices used in these calculations exclude GST.Source: ABARES

Livestock products

Livestock sector

1IndexesofpricesreceivedbyfarmersAustraliaCrops sector GrainsCrops

Livestock for slaughter

Prices


TABLE 2 Indexes of prices paid by farmers, and terms of trade Australia

STATISTICS

2 d f d b f d f d2Indexesofpricespaidbyfarmers,andtermsoftradeAustralia2Indexesofpricespaidbyfarmers,andtermsoftradeAustralia2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 s 2014–15 f2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13 2013 14 s 2014 15 f

Farmers’ terms of trade a 88 4 96 3 93 2 95 4 99 0 99 7Farmers’ terms of trade a 88.4 96.3 93.2 95.4 99.0 99.7Materials and servicesMaterials and servicesS d f dd d li t kSeed, fodder and livestock fodder and feedstuffs 145.9 121.2 115.6 127.0 128.1 135.7 fodder and feedstuffs 145.9 121.2 115.6 127.0 128.1 135.7seed, seedlings and plants 109.5 120.0 116.4 128.0 131.4 130.1 seed, seedlings and plants 109.5 120.0 116.4 128.0 131.4 130.1store and breeding stock 168 4 194 0 199 5 173 8 177 4 194 7 store and breeding stock 168.4 194.0 199.5 173.8 177.4 194.7total 147 0 137 8 135 1 138 0 139 8 148 8 total 147.0 137.8 135.1 138.0 139.8 148.8Ch i lChemicals 116.2 110.4 112.6 110.3 113.6 114.7Electricity 141.9 158.8 176.7 180.8 185.5 176.2Electricity 141.9 158.8 176.7 180.8 185.5 176.2Fertiliser 156.0 157.3 165.5 157.9 153.2 153.2Fertiliser 156.0 157.3 165.5 157.9 153.2 153.2Fuel and lubricants 191 7 211 3 228 2 216 8 221 1 183 5Fuel and lubricants 191.7 211.3 228.2 216.8 221.1 183.5Total 146 4 146 0 149 2 149 5 151 7 153 2Total 146.4 146.0 149.2 149.5 151.7 153.2Marketing 134.0 144.8 154.1 153.6 159.2 149.0gOverheadsInsurance 167 0 173 7 185 8 190 0 195 0 199 8OverheadsInsurance 167.0 173.7 185.8 190.0 195.0 199.8Interest paid 111 2 122 3 114 9 96 4 85 3 83 4Interest paid 111.2 122.3 114.9 96.4 85.3 83.4R d 144 9 149 4 153 0 156 4 160 5 164 5Rates and taxes 144.9 149.4 153.0 156.4 160.5 164.5Other overheads 139.5 143.9 147.3 151.8 155.7 159.6Other overheads 139.5 143.9 147.3 151.8 155.7 159.6Total 124.3 133.6 129.8 117.6 110.6 110.3Total 124.3 133.6 129.8 117.6 110.6 110.3Capital items 144 8 149 3 153 2 157 0 161 4 165 7Capital items 144.8 149.3 153.2 157.0 161.4 165.7Total prices paid 140 8 144 8 147 2 145 2 146 0 146 4Total prices paid 140.8 144.8 147.2 145.2 146.0 146.4Excluding capital items 140.4 144.4 146.6 144.0 144.5 144.5g pExcluding capital and overheads 144.9 147.1 151.3 151.9 154.9 155.0Excluding capital and overheads 144.9 147.1 151.3 151.9 154.9 155.0Excluding seed, fodder andstore and breeding stock 139 4 146 2 149 7 146 6 147 2 145 7Excluding seed, fodder and store and breeding stock 139.4 146.2 149.7 146.6 147.2 145.7a Ratio of index of prices received by farmers and index of prices paid by farmers. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES p y p p yestimate.estimate.Note: The indexes for commodity groups are calculated on a chained weight basis using Fisher’s ideal index with aNote: The indexes for commodity groups are calculated on a chained weight basis using Fisher’s ideal index with a f f 1997 98 100 P i d i th l l ti l d GSTreference year of 1997–98 = 100. Prices used in these calculations exclude GST.

Sources: ABARES (compiled from various market sources); Australian Bureau of StatisticsSources: ABARES (compiled from various market sources); Australian Bureau of Statistics

Prices


TABLE 3 Farm costs and returns Australia

STATISTICS

unit 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 s 2014–15 f

chemicals $m 1 495 1 462 1 471 1 431 1 458 1 449 fertiliser $m 2 143 2 248 2 344 2 240 2 127 2 080 fuel and lubricants $m 1 964 2 254 2 407 2 290 2 261 1 820 marketing $m 3 826 3 837 3 998 3 842 4 259 4 014 repairs and maintenance $m 3 014 3 659 3 878 4 106 4 688 4 616 seed and fodder $m 4 550 4 213 4 131 4 641 4 696 4 961 other $m 3 967 4 261 4 426 4 555 4 761 4 683 total $m 20 959 21 935 22 655 23 104 24 250 23 624Labour $m 3 789 4 145 4 174 4 346 4 276 4 233

interest paid $m 4 455 5 023 4 836 4 259 3 956 4 063 rent and third party insurance $m 494 513 525 537 551 565Total $m 8 738 9 680 9 536 9 142 8 783 8 861Total cash costs $m 29 697 31 615 32 191 32 245 33 032 32 485Depreciation a $m 4 792 4 944 5 072 5 199 5 342 5 485Total farm costs $m 34 490 36 559 37 263 37 444 38 375 37 969

Gross value of farm production $m 39 793 46 375 47 432 48 501 53 355 50 668

Net value of farm production b $m 5 304 9 816 10 169 11 057 14 980 12 698Real net value of farm production c $m 6 037 10 835 10 970 11 665 15 387 12 698Net farm cash income d $m 10 096 14 759 15 241 16 255 20 323 18 183Real net farm cash income c $m 11 491 16 292 16 441 17 150 20 874 18 183

3FarmcostsandreturnsAustralia

a Based on estimated movements in capital expenditure and prices of capital inputs. b Gross value of farm production less total farm costs. c In 2014–15 Australian dollars. d Gross farm cash income less total cash costs. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Note: Prices used in these calculations exclude GST.Sources: ABARES (compiled from various market sources); Australian Bureau of Statistics

Costs Materials and services

Overheads

Returns

Net returns and production

Costs and returns


Exports

FIGURE 5 Contribution to exports by sector, balance of payments basis Australia

2011–12

2012–13

2009–10

2010–11

Othermerchandise

18%

Rural a15%

Mineralresources

67%

Othermerchandise

14%

Rural a15%

Mineralresources

71%

Mineralresources

69%

Rural a16%

Othermerchandise

15%

Services18%

Rural a13%

Othermerchandise

12%

Mineralresources57%

Services 16%

Rural a12%

Othermerchandise

13%

Mineralresources59%

Services17%

Rural a12%

Othermerchandise

13%

Mineralresources58%

Services20%

Rural a12%

Othermerchandise

15%

Mineralresources53%

Othermerchandise

15%

Rural a14%

Mineralresources

71%

Proportion ofmerchandise exports

Proportion of exportsof goods and services

a ABARES rural balance of payments adjusted to include farm, fisheries and forestry products classified as other merchandise by Australian Bureau of Statistics.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

2013–14

Mineralresources

70%

Rural a16%

Othermerchandise

14%

Services17%

Rural a13%

Othermerchandise

12%

Mineralresources58%


TABLE 5 Industry gross value added a, b Australia

STATISTICS

5 d l dd d5Industrygrossvalueaddeda,bAustralia5Industrygrossvalueaddeda,bAustraliaunit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14unit 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13 2013 14

Agriculture forestry and fishingagriculture $ 29 432 29 141 30 324 30 671 30 443 32 005

Agriculture, forestry and fishing agriculture $m 29 432 29 141 30 324 30 671 30 443 32 005f d fi hi $ forestry and fishing $m 4 298 4 278 4 291 4 419 4 427 4 342y g

total $m 33 747 33 442 34 601 35 086 34 869 36 348 total $m 33 747 33 442 34 601 35 086 34 869 36 348Mining $m 91 329 98 421 100 304 107 751 117 019 128 557Mining $m 91 329 98 421 100 304 107 751 117 019 128 557Manufacturingf d b d l h l $ 23 98 2 336 2 3 2 2 808 2 32 2 38

Manufacturing food, beverage and alcohol $m 23 598 24 336 24 312 24 808 25 325 25 385, g textile, clothing, footwear textile, clothing, footwear

and leather $m 7 187 5 878 5 667 5 436 5 372 5 537 and leather $m 7 187 5 878 5 667 5 436 5 372 5 537wood and paper products $m 6 744 6 917 6 508 6 003 5 988 6 092 wood and paper products $m 6 744 6 917 6 508 6 003 5 988 6 092printing publishing printing, publishing

d d d di $ 4 468 4 112 4 106 3 678 3 622 3 423 and recorded media $m 4 468 4 112 4 106 3 678 3 622 3 423 petroleum, coal, chemical products $m 17 512 18 186 18 195 18 696 17 410 16 327 petroleum, coal, chemical products $ non‐metallic mineral products $m 6 483 6 382 6 275 5 892 5 858 5 928 non metallic mineral products $m 6 483 6 382 6 275 5 892 5 858 5 928metal products $m 17 448 16 700 17 456 17 846 16 418 16 726 metal products $m 17 448 16 700 17 456 17 846 16 418 16 726machinery and equipment $m 19 984 21 237 20 804 21 765 21 545 20 202 machinery and equipment $m 19 984 21 237 20 804 21 765 21 545 20 202t t l $ 103 126 103 573 103 356 104 201 101 538 99 619 total $m 103 126 103 573 103 356 104 201 101 538 99 619

Building and construction $m 102 080 102 602 105 490 117 226 119 722 124 181Building and construction $Electricity, gas and water supply $m 41 370 41 782 42 926 43 197 43 481 42 227Electricity, gas and water supply $m 41 370 41 782 42 926 43 197 43 481 42 227Taxes less subsidies on products $m 92 664 92 201 94 767 96 363 97 471 97 427Taxes less subsidies on products $m 92 664 92 201 94 767 96 363 97 471 97 427St ti ti l di $ 0 0 0 1 0 1 188Statistical discrepancy $m 0 0 0 1 0 1 188p yGross domestic product $m 1 370 999 1 397 902 1 430 355 1 483 675 1 520 944 1 558 445Gross domestic product $m 1 370 999 1 397 902 1 430 355 1 483 675 1 520 944 1 558 445a Chain volume measures reference year is 2012–13 b ANZSIC 2006a Chain volume measures, reference year is 2012–13. b ANZSIC 2006.Note: Zero is used to denote nil or less than $0 5 millionNote: Zero is used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australian national accounts: national income, expenditure and product, cat. no. , , p p ,5206.0, Canberra5206.0, Canberra

TABLE 4 Volume of production indexes Australia

STATISTICS

4 l f d d l4VolumeofproductionindexesAustralia4VolumeofproductionindexesAustraliaunit 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 s 2014–15 funit 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13 2013 14 s 2014 15 f

FarmGrains and oilseeds i d 116 6 139 9 158 6 138 4 151 8 129 5FarmGrains and oilseeds index 116.6 139.9 158.6 138.4 151.8 129.5

lTotal crops index 115.3 123.3 135.1 133.0 139.8 124.0pLivestock slaughterings index 109.4 110.4 110.2 116.1 127.6 129.0Livestock slaughterings index 109.4 110.4 110.2 116.1 127.6 129.0Total livestock index 98.7 100.6 100.7 104.7 111.1 111.9Total livestock index 98.7 100.6 100.7 104.7 111.1 111.9Total farm sector index 108 0 112 8 118 5 119 5 126 1 118 7Total farm sector index 108.0 112.8 118.5 119.5 126.1 118.7F tForestry aHardwood index 109.9 113.9 94.1 91.6 103.1 119.1Softwood index 130.9 136.0 126.6 122.9 131.9 141.5Softwood index 130.9 136.0 126.6 122.9 131.9 141.5Total forestry index 120.8 125.4 111.1 107.9 118.1 130.8Total forestry index 120.8 125.4 111.1 107.9 118.1 130.8a Volume of logs harvested excluding firewood f ABARES forecast s ABARES estimatea Volume of logs harvested excluding firewood. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.N t ABARE i d th th d f l l ti d ti i d i O t b 1999 Th i d f th diff tNote: ABARE revised the method for calculating production indexes in October 1999. The indexes for the different groups of commodities are calculated on a chained weight basis using Fisher’s ideal index with a reference year of 1997–98 = 100. of commodities are calculated on a chained weight basis using Fisher s ideal index with a reference year of 1997 98 100. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of StatisticsSources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

Sectors


TABLE 6 Employment a, b Australia

STATISTICS

6 l l6EmploymentAustraliaa,bAustralia6EmploymentAustraliaa,bAustralia2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–142008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13 2013 14

’000 ’000 ’000 ’000 ’000 ’000’000 ’000 ’000 ’000 ’000 ’000Agriculture forestry and fishingagricultureAgriculture, forestry and fishing agriculture 311 308 294 277 261 271f d l forestry and logging 7 7 5 8 6 6y gg g 7 7 5 8 6 6 commercial fishing c 9 12 12 11 9 9 commercial fishing c 9 12 12 11 9 9support services 23 25 26 25 25 27 support services 23 25 26 25 25 27total 350 351 337 321 302 313 total 350 351 337 321 302 313Mi iMining 169 171 203 247 266 269gManufacturing food beverages and tobacco 221 220 220 219 216 223Manufacturing food, beverages and tobacco 221 220 220 219 216 223textiles clothing footwear textiles, clothing, footwear

d l th 48 46 44 39 40 37 and leather 48 46 44 39 40 37 wood and paper product 66 63 56 54 52 62 wood and paper product 66 63 56 54 52 62printing, publishing printing, publishingand recorded media 51 52 55 41 47 41 and recorded media 51 52 55 41 47 41

petroleum coal petroleum, coald h i l d and chemical product 89 87 84 88 90 85p

non‐metallic mineral product 39 36 36 37 35 35 non metallic mineral product 39 36 36 37 35 35metal product 154 143 143 144 127 138 metal product 154 143 143 144 127 138other manufacturing 346 339 332 318 328 309 other manufacturing 346 339 332 318 328 309total 1 014 987 970 938 935 930 total 1 014 987 970 938 935 930h i d iOther industries 9 226 9 336 9 605 9 743 9 886 9 971

Total 10 758 10 846 11 115 11 249 11 389 11 482Total 10 758 10 846 11 115 11 249 11 389 11 482a Average employment over four quarters. b ANZSIC 2006. c Includes aquaculture, fishing, hunting and trapping.a Average employment over four quarters. b ANZSIC 2006. c Includes aquaculture, fishing, hunting and trapping.Note: Caution should be used when using employment statistics at the ANZSIC subdivision and group levels due toNote: Caution should be used when using employment statistics at the ANZSIC subdivision and group levels due to

i h b bj li i bili d d d hi h f i lestimates that may be subject to sampling variability and standard errors too high for most practical purposes. y j p g y g p p pSource: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Labour force, Australia, cat. no. 6291.0.55.003, CanberraSource: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Labour force, Australia, cat. no. 6291.0.55.003, Canberra

TABLE 7 All banks lending to business a Australia

2012–13 2013–14Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun

2012 13 2013 14Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun$b $b $b $b $b $b $b $b$b $b $b $b $b $b $b $b

A i l fAgriculture, forestry and fishing 60.5 58.7 58.1 60.7 60.0 58.3 58.5 60.7g , y

and fishing 60.5 58.7 58.1 60.7 60.0 58.3 58.5 60.7Mining 18 8 18 1 18 8 21 0 24 1 25 9 26 5 28 7Mining 18.8 18.1 18.8 21.0 24.1 25.9 26.5 28.7Manufacturing 41 0 39 7 39 5 39 6 38 7 38 0 41 8 43 1Manufacturing 41.0 39.7 39.5 39.6 38.7 38.0 41.8 43.1C t ti 28 9 27 6 27 8 27 5 27 8 27 7 28 4 28 5Construction 28.9 27.6 27.8 27.5 27.8 27.7 28.4 28.5Wh l l d il dWholesale and retail trade, transport and storage 100.5 102.3 102.2 103.0 104.1 103.1 105.3 101.8

, transport and storage 100.5 102.3 102.2 103.0 104.1 103.1 105.3 101.8Finance and insurance 102.7 103.0 104.2 107.2 112.3 122.8 124.8 131.2Finance and insurance 102.7 103.0 104.2 107.2 112.3 122.8 124.8 131.2Other 342 4 344 5 347 1 351 3 352 8 354 5 357 6 370 8Other 342.4 344.5 347.1 351.3 352.8 354.5 357.6 370.8T t l 694 8 694 0 697 7 710 4 719 8 730 4 742 8 764 9Total 694.8 694.0 697.7 710.4 719.8 730.4 742.8 764.9a Includes variable and fixed interest rate loans outstanding plus bank bills outstanding.a Includes variable and fixed interest rate loans outstanding plus bank bills outstanding.Source: Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank lending to business – selected statistics, Bulletin Statistical Table D8Source: Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank lending to business – selected statistics, Bulletin Statistical Table D8

Employment, banks


TABLE 8 Rural indebtedness to financial institutions Australia

STATISTICS

8 l d b d f l8RuralindebtednesstofinancialinstitutionsAustralia8RuralindebtednesstofinancialinstitutionsAustralia2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–142008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13 2013 14

$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $mRural debtAll b kRural debtAll banks a 57 384 58 097 60 184 59 749 60 657 naOther government agencies b 1 615 1 811 1 871 2 076 2 236 naOther government agencies b 1 615 1 811 1 871 2 076 2 236 naPastoral and otherfi iPastoral and other finance companies 4 462 2 029 2 010 1 801 1 410 naLarge finance institutional debt c 63 461 61 937 64 065 63 626 64 302 nag 63 461 61 937 64 065 63 626 64 302 naDepositsFarm management deposits 2 843 2 784 3 216 3 532 3 721 3 280DepositsFarm management deposits 2 843 2 784 3 216 3 532 3 721 3 280a Derived from all banks lending to agriculture, fishing and forestry. b Includes the government agency business of state g g , g y g g ybanks and advances made under War Service Land Settlement. c Sum of the above. na Not available.banks and advances made under War Service Land Settlement. c Sum of the above. na Not available.Sources: ABARES; Department of Agriculture Canberra; Reserve Bank of Australia Estimated Rural Debt to SpecifiedSources: ABARES; Department of Agriculture, Canberra; Reserve Bank of Australia, Estimated Rural Debt to Specified L d B ll ti St ti ti l T bl D9Lenders, Bulletin Statistical Table D9

TABLE 9 Annual world indicator prices of selected commodities

STATISTICS

9 l ld d f l d d9Annualworldindicatorpricesofselectedcommodities9Annualworldindicatorpricesofselectedcommoditiesunit 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 s 2014–15 funit 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13 2013 14 s 2014 15 f

WorldWorldCropsCropsWheat a US$/t 209 317 299 348 317 285Wheat a $/Corn b US$/t 160 254 281 312 219 180Corn b US$/t 160 254 281 312 219 180Rice c US$/t 557 518 590 565 429 429Rice c US$/t 557 518 590 565 429 429S b d US$/t 395 493 506 597 547 435Soybeans d US$/t 395 493 506 597 547 435

/Cotton e USc/lb 78 164 100 88 91 70Cotton e /Sugar g USc/lb 21 28 23 18 17 16Sugar g USc/lb 21 28 23 18 17 16Livestock productsBeef h US /k 319 391 433 439 439 540Livestock productsBeef h USc/kg 319 391 433 439 439 540W lWool i Ac/kg 872 1 132 1 203 1 035 1 071 1 045Ac/kg 872 1 132 1 203 1 035 1 071 1 045Butter j US$/t 3 477 4 683 3 883 3 727 4 498 3 400Butter j US$/t 3 477 4 683 3 883 3 727 4 498 3 400Cheese j US$/t 3 748 4 221 4 258 4 150 4 817 3 900Cheese j US$/t 3 748 4 221 4 258 4 150 4 817 3 900Ski ilk d j $Skim milk powder j US$/t 2 948 3 392 3 233 3 731 4 513 2 950$/a US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf. b US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf. c USDA nominal quote for Thai white a US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf. b US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf. c USDA nominal quote for Thai white rice 100 per cent Grade B fob Bangkok (August–July basis) d US fob Gulf e Cotlook ‘A’ index f ABARES forecastrice, 100 per cent, Grade B, fob, Bangkok (August–July basis). d US fob Gulf. e Cotlook ‘A’ index. f ABARES forecast. N b f t i (O t b S t b b i ) I t ti t l E h N Y k 11 t t h Cg Nearby futures price (October–September basis), Intercontinental Exchange, New York no. 11 contract. h Cow

90CL US cif price. i Australian Wool Exchange eastern market indicator. j Average of traded prices (excluding 90C US c p ce ust a a oo c a ge easte a et d cato j e age o t aded p ces (e c ud gsubsidised sales). s ABARES estimate.subsidised sales). s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Australian Wool Exchange; Cotlook Ltd; Dairy Australia;Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Australian Wool Exchange; Cotlook Ltd; Dairy Australia; I t ti t l E h I t ti l G i C il M t & Li t k A t li N Y k B d f T dIntercontinental Exchange; International Grains Council; Meat & Livestock Australia; New York Board of Trade; United States Department of Agriculture United States Department of Agriculture

Farm debt, world prices


TABLE 10 Gross unit values of farm products a

STATISTICS

10 l f f d10Grossunitvaluesoffarmproductsa10Grossunitvaluesoffarmproductsaunit 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 s 2014–15 funit 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13 2013 14 s 2014 15 f

Crops bCrops bGrainsGrainsb l $/ barley $/t 172 216 210 276 263 267y $/ corn (maize) $/t 268 259 251 238 247 252 corn (maize) $/t 268 259 251 238 247 252 grain sorghum $/t 196 213 189 252 290 313 grain sorghum $/t 196 213 189 252 290 313oats $/t 160 196 202 236 245 233 oats $/t 160 196 202 236 245 233i $/t 457 240 270 260 326 360 rice $/t 457 240 270 260 326 360

triticale $/t 220 184 176 249 288 292 triticale $/ wheat $/t 218 257 227 313 334 314 wheat $/t 218 257 227 313 334 314OilseedsOilseedscanola $/t 440 544 513 548 501 441 canola $/t 440 544 513 548 501 441soybeans c $/ 551 501 472 442 477 496 soybeans c $/t 551 501 472 442 477 496

fl d sunflower seed c $/t 696 567 551 570 614 646$/t 696 567 551 570 614 646PulsesPulseschickpeas $/t 443 404 457 394 353 395 chickpeas $/t 443 404 457 394 353 395field peas $/t 241 266 295 406 438 412 field peas $/t 241 266 295 406 438 412l i $/ lupins $/t 269 268 232 340 375 349pIndustrial cropsIndustrial cropsCotton lint d c/kg 205 377 225 199 229 182Cotton lint d c/kg 205 377 225 199 229 182Sugar cane (cut for crushing) $/t 44 38 43 41 36 37Sugar cane (cut for crushing) $/t 44 38 43 41 36 37Wine grapes $/t 464 413 458 499 441 448Wine grapes $/t 464 413 458 499 441 448LivestockLivestock Beef cattle c/kg 311 336 337 318 314 351 Beef cattle c/kg 311 336 337 318 314 351Lambs c/kg 444 519 509 371 476 510 Lambs c/kg 444 519 509 371 476 510Pigs c/kg 291 269 266 262 292 291 Pigs c/kg 291 269 266 262 292 291P l /k 204 197 194 205 207 208 Poultry c/kg 204 197 194 205 207 208yLivestock productsLivestock productsWool c/kg 456 623 666 568 589 573 Wool c/kg 456 623 666 568 589 573Milk c/L 37 43 42 40 50 45 Milk c/L 37 43 42 40 50 45a A erage gross nit al e across all grades in principal markets nless other ise indicated Incl des the cost ofa Average gross unit value across all grades in principal markets, unless otherwise indicated. Includes the cost of containers, commission and other expenses incurred in getting the commodities to their principal markets. These , p g g p pexpenses are significant. b Average unit gross value relates to returns received from crops harvested in that year, expenses are significant. b Average unit gross value relates to returns received from crops harvested in that year, regardless of when sales take place unless otherwise indicated c Price paid by crusher d Australian base price forregardless of when sales take place, unless otherwise indicated. c Price paid by crusher. d Australian base price for l i th fi i l i di t d f ABARES f t ABARES ti tsales in the financial year indicated. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.

Note: Prices used in these calculations exclude GST.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of StatisticsSources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

Gross unit values


World

TABLE 11 World production, consumption, stocks and trade for selected commodities a

STATISTICS

unit 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 s 2014–15 f

production Mt 679 653 695 655 713 718 consumption Mt 653 657 698 677 697 711 closing stocks Mt 199 194 191 169 185 192 exports bc Mt 128 126 145 141 155 152

production Mt 1 118 1 099 1 157 1 136 1 280 1 271 consumption Mt 1 106 1 129 1 138 1 140 1 226 1 251 closing stocks Mt 198 166 165 165 218 238 exports b Mt 123 116 147 123 163 148

production d Mt 440 449 467 472 476 476 consumption d Mt 437 445 459 469 477 481 closing stocks d Mt 96 100 107 110 109 103 exports be Mt 31 36 39 38 40 41

production Mt 448 461 447 475 505 527 consumption Mt 424 448 466 468 488 505 closing stocks Mt 76 84 65 67 81 102 exports Mt 107 108 111 118 134 135





continued...

Vegetable protein meals

Grains

Cotton

Sugar

Farm

Oilseeds and vegetable oils

Industrial crops

Wheat

Coarse grains

Rice

Oilseeds

Vegetable oils

11Worldproduction,consumption,stocksandtradeforselectedcommodities


World

TABLE 11 World production, consumption, stocks and trade for selected commodities a continued

STATISTICS

unit 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 s 2014–15 f

production Mt 259 262 268 272 276 272 consumption Mt 256 258 264 268 271 267 closing stocks Mt 2.2 2.1 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.0 exports b Mt 24.3 26.1 27.2 28.1 28.9 29.2

production kt 1 126 1 117 1 133 1 159 1 131 1 132 consumption ej kt 1 125 1 130 1 110 1 105 1 127 na closing stocks k kt 55 45 24 25 35 na exports l kt 501 502 447 485 496 na

production kt 8 179 8 584 8 914 9 143 9 344 9 668 consumption kt 7 827 8 097 8 408 8 646 8 869 9 174 closing stocks kt 176 213 249 224 201 280 exports kt 735 723 762 815 836 810Skim milk powder ehm production kt 3 398 3 675 3 983 3 980 4 220 4 386 consumption kt 3 005 3 192 3 449 3 493 3 601 3 715 closing stocks kt 502 453 430 393 376 360 exports kt 1 316 1 528 1 627 1 666 1 887 2 043

11Worldproduction,consumption,stocksandtradeforselectedcommodities

a Some figures are not based on precise or complete analyses. b Excludes intra‐EU trade. c Includes the grain equivalent of wheat flour. d Milled equivalent. e On a calendar year basis, e.g. 2011–12 = 2012. f ABARES forecast.g Beef and veal, mutton, lamb, goat, pig and poultry meat. h Selected countries. i Clean equivalent. j Virgin wool at the spinning stage in 65 countries. k Held by marketing bodies and on‐farm in five major exporting countries. l Five major exporting countries. m Non‐fat dry milk. na Not available. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Argentine Wool Federation; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Capewools South Africa; Commonwealth Secretariat; Department of Agriculture, Canberra; Economic Commission for Europe; Fearnleys; Food and Agriculture Organization; International Grains Council; International Sugar Organization; International Wool Textile Organisation; ISTA Mielke and Co; Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (Japan); New Zealand Wool Board; Poimena Analysis, Melbourne; United States Department of Agriculture; Uruguayan Association of Wool Exporters

Livestock products Meat egh

Wool i

Butter eh


Australian production

TABLE 12 Agricultural, fisheries and forestry commodity production Australia

STATISTICS

unit 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 s 2014–15 fCropsGrains barley kt 7 865 7 995 8 221 7 472 9 539 7 445 corn (maize) kt 328 357 451 507 340 365 grain sorghum kt 1 508 1 935 2 239 2 230 1 107 1 338 oats kt 1 162 1 128 1 262 1 121 1 326 1 135 rice kt 197 723 919 1 161 833 684 triticale kt 545 355 285 171 274 247 wheat kt 21 834 27 410 29 905 22 856 27 009 23 222Oilseeds canola kt 1 907 2 359 3 427 4 142 3 761 3 324 cottonseed kt 547 1 269 1 732 1 439 1 252 665 soybeans kt 60 30 86 92 62 53 sunflower seed kt 41 43 47 44 32 31 other oilseeds a kt 40 33 35 35 34 30Pulses chickpeas kt 487 513 673 813 632 435 field peas kt 356 395 342 320 339 268 lupins kt 823 808 982 459 622 501Total grains, oilseeds and pulses kt 37 699 45 352 50 606 42 861 47 163 39 743Industrial cropsCotton lint kt 387 926 1 225 1 018 885 470Sugar cane (cut for crushing) kt 31 235 27 443 27 943 30 400 30 500 31 600Sugar (tonnes actual) kt 4 472 3 610 3 683 4 300 4 380 4 600Wine grapes kt 1 533 1 598 1 582 1 642 1 560 1 562Horticulture ktFruit apples kt 264 300 289 289 278 300 bananas kt 302 203 286 330 372 375 oranges kt 391 291 390 401 430 445Vegetables carrots kt 267 225 319 272 314 320 onions kt 260 331 347 302 284 305 potatoes kt 1 278 1 128 1 288 1 273 1 267 1 255 tomatoes kt 472 302 372 456 430 460LivestockSlaughterings Cattle and calves ’000 8 364 8 097 7 873 8 457 9 473 9 350 Lambs ’000 19 478 17 880 18 879 21 122 21 899 22 300 Sheep ’000 7 333 5 341 5 175 8 192 10 066 9 200 Pigs ’000 4 561 4 643 4 733 4 745 4 778 4 833Live exportsCattle exported live b ’000 958 805 683 634 1 133 1 120Sheep exported live c ’000 3 060 2 916 2 562 2 000 2 020 2 400Meat producedBeef and veal d kt 2 109 2 133 2 115 2 245 2 464 2 450Lamb d kt 413 391 419 457 474 489Mutton d kt 162 123 120 183 228 221Chicken meat d kt 834 1 015 1 030 1 046 1 084 1 130Pig meat kt 331 342 351 356 360 364Total kt 3 849 4 005 4 034 4 287 4 610 4 654

continued...

12Agricultural,fisheriesandforestrycommodityproductionAustralia


Australian production

TABLE 12 Agricultural, fisheries and forestry commodity production Australia continued

STATISTICS

12Agricultural,fisheriesandforestrycommodityproductionAustraliacontinuedunit 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 s 2014–15 f

Wool e kt 423 429 411 435 431 416Milk g ML 9 023 9 100 9 480 9 201 9 239 9 375Butter h kt 128 122 120 118 116 120Cheese kt 350 339 347 338 311 310Casein kt 8 5 5 5 4 2Skim milk powder kt 190 222 230 224 211 220Whole milk powder kt 126 151 140 109 126 117Buttermilk powder kt 13 12 11 11 11 11

Hardwood ’000 m3 11 144 11 551 9 548 9 291 10 454 12 077Softwood ’000 m3 14 418 14 981 13 949 13 536 14 526 15 590Total ’000 m3 25 563 26 532 23 497 22 827 24 979 27 667

Tuna kt 11.0 9.1 10.1 11.4 11.5 13.6Salmonids k kt 32.0 36.8 44.2 43.0 41.7 45.0Other fish kt 120.7 112.9 113.1 105.6 110.5 109.7Prawns kt 27.3 27.2 22.5 21.1 25.5 25.0Rock lobster l kt 10.1 9.9 9.1 10.5 9.8 9.7Abalone m kt 5.0 5.2 5.1 5.3 5.1 5.1Scallops kt 7.6 7.0 3.6 6.8 4.5 4.6Oysters kt 14.9 13.9 12.6 12.5 12.8 13.0Other molluscs kt 6.4 6.6 7.9 7.9 6.7 6.5Other crustaceans kt 5.7 6.3 5.5 5.2 5.6 5.4

Livestock products

Forestry products i

Fisheries j

a Linseed, safflower seed and peanuts. b Includes all bovine for feeder/slaughter, breeding and dairy purposes. c Includes animals for breeding. d In carcass weight and includes carcass equivalent of canned meats. e Greasy equivalent of shorn wool (includes crutching), dead and fellmongered wool and wool exported on skins. f ABARES forecast. g Includes the whole milk equivalent of farm cream intake. h Includes the butter equivalent of butter oil, butter concentrate, ghee and dry butterfat. i Excludes logs harvested for firewood. j Liveweight. k Includes salmon and trout production. l Includes Queensland bugs. m Excludes Victorian aquaculture production for 2009–10 and 2010–11. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Australian Fisheries Management Authority; Dairy Australia; Department of Fisheries, Western Australia; Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, Tasmania; Fisheries Queensland, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry; Fisheries Victoria, Department of Primary Industries; Industry & Investment New South Wales; Northern Territory Department of Regional Development, Primary Industry, Fisheries and Resources; Primary Industries and Regions, Fisheries, South Australia; Pulse Australia; Raw Cotton Marketing Advisory Committee; South Australian Research and Development Institute; state and territory forest services; various Australian forestry industries


Value of production

TABLE 13 Gross value of farm, fisheries and forestry production Australia

STATISTICS

2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 s 2014–15 f$m $m $m $m $m $m

CropsGrains barley 1 356 1 729 1 723 2 063 2 510 1 988 corn (maize) 88 92 113 120 84 92 grain sorghum 296 412 423 562 321 419 oats 186 221 255 265 325 264 rice 90 174 248 302 272 246 triticale 120 65 50 43 79 72 wheat 4 765 7 052 6 775 7 154 9 018 7 297Oilseeds canola 840 1 283 1 759 2 270 1 883 1 467 soybeans 33 15 41 41 30 26 sunflower seed 29 24 26 25 20 20 other oilseeds a 37 30 33 27 23 20Pulses chickpeas 216 207 308 320 223 172 field peas 86 105 101 130 149 110 lupins 222 216 228 156 234 175Total grains, oilseeds and pulses 8 663 12 138 12 485 13 924 15 670 12 791Industrial cropsCotton lint and cottonseed b 828 2 087 2 954 2 174 2 036 1 034Sugar cane (cut for crushing) 1 382 1 036 1 214 1 253 1 096 1 169Wine grapes 711 712 725 858 688 699Total industrial crops 2 922 3 834 4 893 4 284 3 820 2 902HorticultureTable and dried grapes 398 302 316 303 314 295Fruit and nuts (excl. grapes) 2 950 3 013 3 050 3 662 3 786 3 919Vegetables 3 023 3 338 3 339 3 770 3 703 3 899Other horticulture 1 649 1 606 1 272 1 285 1 297 1 376Total horticulture 8 020 8 259 7 976 9 020 9 100 9 489Other crops nei c 1 660 1 105 898 1 165 1 545 1 345Total crops 21 265 25 336 26 251 28 394 30 136 26 526

continued...

13Grossvalueoffarm,fisheriesandforestryproductionAustralia


Value of production

TABLE 13 Gross value of farm, fisheries and forestry production Australia continued

2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 s 2014–15 f$m $m $m $m $m $m

Cattle and calves d 6 567 7 164 7 134 7 136 7 739 8 601Sheep e 499 484 419 329 590 706Lambs eg 1 832 2 029 2 136 1 696 2 258 2 493Pigs 965 919 934 934 1 050 1 060Poultry 1 785 2 077 2 078 2 214 2 314 2 442

Cattle exported live h 701 660 651 589 1 049 1 066Sheep exported live i 298 348 345 194 185 300Total livestock j 12 722 13 795 13 797 13 207 15 306 16 794

Wool k 1 928 2 673 2 734 2 472 2 537 2 386Milk l 3 371 3 932 3 986 3 687 4 619 4 181Eggs 428 572 583 653 670 690Honey and beeswax 80 66 79 88 87 91Total livestock products 5 807 7 243 7 383 6 900 7 913 7 347Total farm 39 793 46 375 47 432 48 501 53 355 50 668

Hardwood 856 892 742 685 797 899Softwood 923 959 879 824 918 985Total 1 779 1 851 1 620 1 509 1 715 1 884

Tuna 125 139 172 177 154 165Salmonids o 369 427 514 497 541 584Other fish q 464 432 456 441 466 438Prawns 325 308 266 277 359 361Rock lobster r 381 392 394 451 540 499Abalone t 173 178 170 190 177 180Scallops 23 22 8 15 10 11Oysters 101 97 90 95 96 100Pearls u 105 120 102 79 91 108Other molluscs v 32 32 33 59 31 42Other crustaceans 65 66 67 64 70 67Total fish 2 191 2 248 2 305 2 381 2 571 2 591a Linseed, safflower seed and peanuts. b Value delivered to gin. c Mainly fodder crops. d Includes dairy cattle slaughtered. e Excludes skin values. f ABARES forecast. g Lamb saleyard indicator weight 18–22 kilograms. h Includes all bovine for feeder/slaughter, breeding and dairy purposes. i Includes animals exported for breeding purposes. j Total livestock slaughterings includes livestock disposals. k Shorn, dead and fellmongered wool and wool exported on skins. l Milk intake by factories and valued at the farm gate. m Excludes logs harvested for firewood. n Value to fishers of product landed in Australia. o Includes salmon and trout production. q Includes an estimated value of aquaculture. r Includes Queensland bugs. s ABARES estimate. t Excludes Victorian aquaculture production for 2009–10 and 2010–11. u Northern Territory aquaculture production not included in 2012–13 due to confidentiality. v Also includes fish and aquaculture values not elsewhere included. nei Not elsewhere included.Note: The gross value of production is the value placed on recorded production at the wholesale prices realised in the marketplace. The point of measurement can vary between commodities. Generally the marketplace is the metropolitan market in each state and territory. However, where commodities are consumed locally or where they become raw material for a secondary industry, these points are presumed to be the marketplace. Prices used in these calculations exclude GST. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

Fisheries products n

13GrossvalueoffarmandfisheriesproductionAustraliacontinued

LivestockSlaughterings

Live exports

Livestock products

Forestry products m


Areas, stock

TABLE 14 Crop and forestry areas and livestock numbers Australia

STATISTICS

unit 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 s 2014–15 fCrop areasGrains barley ’000 ha 4 422 3 681 3 718 3 644 3 920 3 798 corn (maize) ’000 ha 59 62 70 79 58 62 grain sorghum ’000 ha 498 633 659 648 493 532 oats ’000 ha 850 826 731 729 744 739 rice ’000 ha 19 76 103 114 76 71 triticale ’000 ha 350 187 145 99 151 152 wheat ’000 ha 13 881 13 502 13 902 12 979 13 511 13 836Oilseeds canola ’000 ha 1 695 2 078 2 461 3 272 2 655 2 713 soybeans ’000 ha 31 17 38 41 31 27 sunflower seed ’000 ha 27 37 40 30 27 25 other oilseeds a ’000 ha 16 19 18 17 16 17Pulses chickpeas ’000 ha 429 653 456 574 507 343 field peas ’000 ha 285 318 249 281 245 231 lupins ’000 ha 692 756 689 450 387 437Total grains, oilseeds and pulses ’000 ha 23 787 23 946 24 295 23 841 23 606 23 604Industrial cropsCotton ’000 ha 208 590 600 442 392 210Sugar cane b ’000 ha 369 314 368 371 375 381Winegrapes c ’000 ha 152 154 145 133 138 142Livestock numbers dCattle beef million 24.01 25.94 25.69 26.46 24.72 23.56 dairy million 2.54 2.57 2.73 2.83 2.86 2.87 milking herd e million 1.60 1.59 1.70 1.69 1.69 1.69 total million 26.55 28.51 28.42 29.29 27.58 26.43Sheep million 68.09 73.10 74.72 75.55 72.71 69.76Pigs million 2.29 2.29 2.14 2.10 2.15 2.17Forestry plantation areaHardwood ’000 ha 973 980 977 976 na naSoftwood ’000 ha 1 024 1 025 1 024 1 024 na naTotal plantation area g ’000 ha 2 009 2 017 2 013 2 013 na na

14CropandforestryareasandlivestocknumbersAustralia

a Linseed and safflower seed. b Cut for crushing. c This figure is for grapes for wine only. Prior to 2008–09 this figure includes grapes used for winemaking and other purposes such as drying and table. d At 30 June. e Cows in milk and dry. f ABARES forecast. g Includes areas where plantation type is unknown. na Not available. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Pulse Australia


Yields

TABLE 15 Average farm yields Australia

STATISTICS

15 f ld l15AveragefarmyieldsAustralia15AveragefarmyieldsAustraliaunit 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 s 2014–15 funit 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13 2013 14 s 2014 15 f

CropsCropsGrainsGrainsb l /h 1 78 2 17 2 21 2 05 2 43 1 96 barley t/ha 1.78 2.17 2.21 2.05 2.43 1.96y corn (maize) t/ha 5.56 5.74 6.47 6.44 5.88 5.90 corn (maize) t/hagrain sorghum t/ha 3.03 3.06 3.40 3.44 2.25 2.51 grain sorghum t/ha 3.03 3.06 3.40 3.44 2.25 2.51oats t/ha 1.37 1.37 1.73 1.54 1.78 1.54 oats t/ha 1.37 1.37 1.73 1.54 1.78 1.54rice t/ha 10 39 9 54 8 91 10 22 11 01 9 70 rice t/ha 10.39 9.54 8.91 10.22 11.01 9.70i i l /h 1 56 1 90 1 97 1 73 1 81 1 63 triticale t/ha 1.56 1.90 1.97 1.73 1.81 1.63

wheat t/ha 1.57 2.03 2.15 1.76 2.00 1.68 wheat t/haOilseedsOilseedscanola t/ha 1 13 1 14 1 39 1 27 1 42 1 23 canola t/ha 1.13 1.14 1.39 1.27 1.42 1.23so beans t/h 1 91 1 71 2 26 2 24 2 03 2 01 soybeans t/ha 1.91 1.71 2.26 2.24 2.03 2.01

fl d / 1 54 1 14 1 17 1 46 1 21 1 25 sunflower seed t/ha 1.54 1.14 1.17 1.46 1.21 1.25/PulsesPulseschickpeas t/ha 1.14 0.79 1.48 1.42 1.25 1.27 chickpeas t/ha 1.14 0.79 1.48 1.42 1.25 1.27field peas t/ha 1 25 1 24 1 38 1 14 1 39 1 16 field peas t/ha 1.25 1.24 1.38 1.14 1.39 1.16l i t/h 1 19 1 07 1 42 1 02 1 61 1 15 lupins t/ha 1.19 1.07 1.42 1.02 1.61 1.15Industrial cropspCotton (lint) t/ha 1.86 1.57 2.04 2.30 2.26 2.24Cotton (lint) t/ha 1.86 1.57 2.04 2.30 2.26 2.24Sugar cane (for crushing) t/ha 85 87 76 82 81 83Sugar cane (for crushing) t/ha 85 87 76 82 81 83Winegrapes t/ha 10 1 10 4 10 9 12 3 11 3 11 0Winegrapes t/ha 10.1 10.4 10.9 12.3 11.3 11.0Li t kLivestockWool a kg/sheep 4.26 4.34 4.19 4.41 4.37 4.43Wool a g/ pWhole milk L/cow 5 653 5 727 5 577 5 450 5 467 5 538Whole milk L/cow 5 653 5 727 5 577 5 450 5 467 5 538a Shorn (including lambs) f ABARES forecast s ABARES estimatesa Shorn (including lambs). f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimates.S ABARES A t li B f St ti ti P l A t liSources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Pulse Australia


Export volumes

TABLE 16 Volume of agricultural and fisheries exports Australia

STATISTICS

unit 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 s 2014–15 f

CropsGrains barley a kt 4 235 4 625 6 568 5 165 7 124 4 972 corn (maize) kt 15 12 68 134 83 51 grain sorghum kt 487 553 1 112 1 291 701 452 oats kt 216 127 163 172 138 148 rice kt 28 172 537 584 552 419 wheat b kt 13 725 18 431 23 026 21 265 18 336 16 993Oilseeds canola kt 1 238 1 471 2 323 3 488 3 194 2 085 cottonseed kt 106 268 654 754 464 340 other oilseeds c kt 13 7 6 10 14 8Pulses chickpeas kt 459 409 653 852 562 524 peas d kt 163 254 248 208 155 213 lupins kt 377 289 316 416 328 207 other pulses kt 313 485 775 691 695 406Total grains, oilseeds and pulses kt 21 376 27 104 36 448 35 030 32 347 26 816

Raw cotton e kt 395 505 994 1 305 1 037 730Sugar kt 3 506 2 735 2 572 3 004 3 107 3 278Wine ML 790 748 737 717 717 720Meat and live animalsBeef and veal g kt 899 937 948 1 014 1 184 1 180Live feeder/slaughter cattle h ’000 871 728 579 513 996 1 000Live breeder cattle i ’000 87 77 105 121 137 120Lamb g kt 157 157 174 201 226 240Live sheep j ’000 3 060 2 916 2 562 2 000 2 020 2 400Mutton g kt 111 86 89 144 181 172Pig meat g kt 30 31 29 26 27 27Poultry meat g kt 28 31 38 32 37 42Wool Greasy ks kt 308 335 301 316 295 290Semi‐processed kt (gr eq) 49 44 37 34 35 32Skins kt (gr eq) 71 65 67 86 97 88Total ks kt (gr eq) 428 444 405 437 428 410Dairy productsButter l kt 74 56 49 54 49 45Cheese kt 168 163 161 174 151 148Casein kt 10 5 4 4 3 2Skim milk powder kt 126 155 141 147 143 147Whole milk powder kt 91 108 102 87 94 95

continued...

16VolumeofagriculturalandfisheriesexportsAustraliaFarm

Industrial crops


Export volumes

TABLE 16 Volume of agricultural and fisheries exports Australia continued

STATISTICS

16 l f l l d f h16VolumeofagriculturalandfisheriesexportsAustraliacontinued16VolumeofagriculturalandfisheriesexportsAustraliacontinuedunit 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 s 2014–15 funit 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13 2013 14 s 2014 15 f

Fisheries productsTuna kt 9 5 7 8 8 9 8 9 11 0 13 0Fisheries productsTuna kt 9.5 7.8 8.9 8.9 11.0 13.0l idSalmonids kt 4.0 6.4 5.8 2.6 1.8 3.4

Other fish kt 7.1 7.7 6.5 5.5 4.9 5.6Other fish kt 7.1 7.7 6.5 5.5 4.9 5.6Prawns mFrozen kt 4 5 6 4 5 3 3 9 7 0 6 8Prawns m Frozen kt 4.5 6.4 5.3 3.9 7.0 6.8Rock lobsterF h hill d fRock lobster Fresh, chilled, frozen, , or cooked kt 7.7 7.0 6.9 7.8 8.0 8.0 or cooked kt 7.7 7.0 6.9 7.8 8.0 8.0AbaloneLive fresh or chilled kt 1 8 1 7 1 6 1 4 1 5 1 5Abalone Live, fresh or chilled kt 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.5Frozen or cooked kt 0 7 0 8 0 8 0 7 0 7 0 7 Frozen or cooked kt 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7P d d kt 1 1 1 0 0 8 0 7 0 5 0 6 Prepared or preserved kt 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.6Scallops n kt 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5Scallops n kt 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5a Includes the grain equivalent of malt b Includes the grain equivalent of wheat flour c Includes soybeans linseed sunflowera Includes the grain equivalent of malt. b Includes the grain equivalent of wheat flour. c Includes soybeans, linseed, sunflower seed safflower seed and peanuts Excludes meals and oils d Includes field peas and cowpeas e Excludes cotton waste andseed, safflower seed and peanuts. Excludes meals and oils. d Includes field peas and cowpeas. e Excludes cotton waste and l f f h d h h h ll d f h l d b ff l i l d d l d b ff llinters. f ABARES forecast. g In shipped weight. Fresh, chilled or frozen. h Includes buffalo. i Includes dairy cattle and buffalo. g pp g yj Includes breeding stock. k Australian Bureau of Statistics recorded trade data adjusted for changes in stock levels held j Includes breeding stock. k Australian Bureau of Statistics recorded trade data adjusted for changes in stock levels held overseas l Includes ghee dry butterfat butter concentrate and butter oil and dairy spreads all expressed as butteroverseas. l Includes ghee, dry butterfat, butter concentrate and butter oil, and dairy spreads, all expressed as butter. m Excludes volume of other prawn products n Includes crumbed scallops s ABARES estimatem Excludes volume of other prawn products. n Includes crumbed scallops. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture, Canberra; Department of Foreign Affairs and ; ; p g , ; p gTrade; United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database (UN Comtrade)Trade; United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database (UN Comtrade)


Export values

TABLE 17 Value of agricultural and fisheries exports (fob) Australia

STATISTICS

17 l f l l f h d f (f b)17Valueofagriculturalfisheriesandforestryexports(fob)Australia17Valueofagriculturalfisheriesandforestryexports(fob)Australia2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 s 2014–15 f2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13 2013 14 s 2014 15 f

$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $mFarmFarmCCropspGrainsbarley a 1 093 1 295 1 875 1 626 2 199 1 408Grains barley a 1 093 1 295 1 875 1 626 2 199 1 408corn (maize) 8 6 24 50 36 20 corn (maize) 8 6 24 50 36 20grain sorghum 6 6 299 36 2 3 grain sorghum 116 146 299 364 253 157 oats 53 37 47 60 53 44 53 37 47 60 53 44 rice 43 165 427 459 498 433 rice 43 165 427 459 498 433 wheat b 3 692 5 516 6 378 6 776 6 103 5 474 wheat b 3 692 5 516 6 378 6 776 6 103 5 474Oilseeds

lOilseeds canola 583 866 1 344 2 094 1 929 1 078 cottonseed 46 85 195 219 168 129 cottonseed 46 85 195 219 168 129 other oilseeds c 24 14 10 13 18 12 other oilseeds c 24 14 10 13 18 12Pulseschickpeas 255 213 384 533 297 260Pulses chickpeas 255 213 384 533 297 260peas d 60 8 93 89 6 peas d 60 85 93 89 67 77l i lupins 115 89 86 143 143 77p 115 89 86 143 143 77 other pulses 258 311 436 418 494 246 other pulses 258 311 436 418 494 246Total grains oilseeds and pulses 6 344 8 827 11 598 12 846 12 259 9 416Total grains, oilseeds and pulses 6 344 8 827 11 598 12 846 12 259 9 416Industrial cropsIndustrial cropsRaw cotton e 755 1 367 2 736 2 695 2 352 1 484Raw cotton eSugar 1 887 1 436 1 556 1 437 1 354 1 450Sugar 1 887 1 436 1 556 1 437 1 354 1 450Wine 2 188 2 009 1 910 1 867 1 847 1 893Wine 2 188 2 009 1 910 1 867 1 847 1 893Total industrial crops 4 830 4 812 6 203 5 999 5 554 4 827Total industrial crops 4 830 4 812 6 203 5 999 5 554 4 827H ti ltF iHorticultureFruit 585 456 505 634 724 743 585 456 505 634 724 743Tree nuts 212 211 240 348 610 620Tree nuts 212 211 240 348 610 620Vegetables 282 296 276 260 270 279Vegetables 282 296 276 260 270 279Nursery 23 20 15 12 11 11Nursery 23 20 15 12 11 11Other horticulture g 274 293 258 224 250 268Other horticulture g 274 293 258 224 250 268T l h i lTotal horticulture 1 376 1 277 1 294 1 478 1 865 1 921Other crops and crop products 2 383 2 504 2 560 2 740 3 072 3 122Other crops and crop products 2 383 2 504 2 560 2 740 3 072 3 122Total crops 14 933 17 420 21 654 23 062 22 750 19 286Total crops 14 933 17 420 21 654 23 062 22 750 19 286Meat and live animalsBeef and vealMeat and live animalsBeef and veal 3 953 4 328 4 467 4 871 6 265 6 672Li f d / l h l hLive feeder/slaughter cattle h 550 499 412 339 780 822g 550 499 412 339 780 822Live breeder cattle i 152 161 239 251 269 244Live breeder cattle i 152 161 239 251 269 244Lamb 916 1 026 1 060 1 086 1 468 1 645Lamb 916 1 026 1 060 1 086 1 468 1 645Live sheep j 298 348 345 194 185 300Live sheep j 298 348 345 194 185 300Mutton 433 404 362 478 751 800Mutton 433 404 362 478 751 800PiPig meat 109 106 100 81 85 100gPoultry meat 36 38 45 43 50 58Poultry meat 36 38 45 43 50 58Total meat and live animals 6 446 6 909 7 030 7 342 9 851 10 641Total meat and live animals 6 446 6 909 7 030 7 342 9 851 10 641WoolGreasy kWool Greasy k 1 773 2 371 2 448 2 261 2 212 2 075Semi‐processed 238 251 242 209 238 225Semi processed 238 251 242 209 238 225Skins 291 426 433 398 426 400Skins 291 426 433 398 426 400Total k 2 303 3 048 3 123 2 869 2 877 2 700Total k 2 303 3 048 3 123 2 869 2 877 2 700

continuedcontinued...


Export values

TABLE 17 Value of agricultural and fisheries exports (fob) Australia continued

STATISTICS

17 l f l l d f h (f b)17Valueofagriculturalandfisheriesexports(fob)Australiaacontinued17Valueofagriculturalandfisheriesexports(fob)Australiaacontinued2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 s 2014–15 f2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13 2013 14 s 2014 15 f

$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $mDairy productsDairy productsButter 211 252 201 180 243 174ButterCheese 715 731 751 784 765 721Cheese 715 731 751 784 765 721Casein 88 53 48 46 42 34Casein 88 53 48 46 42 34Skim milk powder 352 504 474 467 708 492Skim milk powder 352 504 474 467 708 492Wh l ilk d 296 402 378 312 532 355Whole milk powder 296 402 378 312 532 355Other dairy products 434 408 442 443 435 415y pTotal 2 096 2 349 2 295 2 232 2 725 2 191Total 2 096 2 349 2 295 2 232 2 725 2 191Other livestock and livestock products 2 059 2 190 2 287 2 512 2 876 2 740Other livestock and livestock products 2 059 2 190 2 287 2 512 2 876 2 740Total livestock exports 12 904 14 496 14 735 14 954 18 329 18 272Total livestock exports 12 904 14 496 14 735 14 954 18 329 18 272Total farm exports 27 837 31 917 36 389 38 017 41 079 37 557Total farm exports 27 837 31 917 36 389 38 017 41 079 37 557Fi h i dFisheries productsTuna 118 131 163 163 136 155

pTuna 118 131 163 163 136 155Salmonids 30 54 42 25 17 28Salmonids 30 54 42 25 17 28Other fish 110 101 85 70 72 79Other fish 110 101 85 70 72 79PPrawns l Frozen 60 77 65 51 99 101 Frozen 60 77 65 51 99 101Rock lobsterFresh chilled frozen or cooked 399 368 387 447 590 556Rock lobster Fresh, chilled, frozen or cooked 399 368 387 447 590 556AbaloneAbalone Live, fresh or chilled 100 88 81 80 74 80 Live, fresh or chilled Frozen or cooked 53 59 57 55 56 57 Frozen or cooked 53 59 57 55 56 57Prepared or preserved 63 65 59 52 41 47 Prepared or preserved 63 65 59 52 41 47Scallops 30 15 15 11 14 13Scallops m 30 15 15 11 14 13P l 244 241 207 152 144 171Pearls 244 241 207 152 144 171Other fisheries products 39 48 66 70 61 62pTotal fisheries products 1 246 1 248 1 227 1 175 1 304 1 347Total fisheries products 1 246 1 248 1 227 1 175 1 304 1 347a Includes the grain equivalent of malt b Includes the grain equivalent of wheat flour c Includes soybeans linseeda Includes the grain equivalent of malt. b Includes the grain equivalent of wheat flour. c Includes soybeans, linseed,

fl d ffl d d t E l d l d il d Fi ld d E l d tt tsunflower seed, safflower seed and peanuts. Excludes meals and oils. d Field peas and cowpeas. e Excludes cotton waste and linters. f ABARES forecast. g Other horticulture includes mainly coffee, tea, spices, essential oils and other and linters. f ABARES forecast. g Other horticulture includes mainly coffee, tea, spices, essential oils and other miscellaneous horticultural products. h Includes buffalo. i Includes dairy cattle and buffalo. j Includes breeding stock.miscellaneous horticultural products. h Includes buffalo. i Includes dairy cattle and buffalo. j Includes breeding stock. k On a balance of payments basis Australian Bureau of Statistics recorded trade data adjusted for changes in stock levelsk On a balance of payments basis. Australian Bureau of Statistics recorded trade data adjusted for changes in stock levels h ld l O h d i l d d i h fi h i d I l d b d ll ABARESheld overseas. l Other prawn products included in other fisheries products. m Includes crumbed scallops. s ABARES estimate.estimate.Note: ABARES has revised the classification of pulses and these are no longer included in vegetables.Note: ABARES has revised the classification of pulses and these are no longer included in vegetables.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture Canberra; United Nations Commodity TradeSources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture, Canberra; United Nations Commodity Trade S i i b (U C d )Statistics Database (UN Comtrade)


TABLE 18 Agricultural exports to China (fob) Australia

STATISTICS

2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14$m $m $m $m $m $m

barley a 235 280 311 454 494 908grain sorghum 0 14 14 4 98 215wheat b 114 189 144 457 357 484other grains c 0 1 0 1 6 0Oilseeds 22 1 45 116 344 627Pulses 0 5 3 4 1 1Total grains, oilseeds and pulses 373 490 516 1 036 1 300 2 235

Raw cotton d 165 274 551 1 812 1 849 1 519Sugar 3 4 31 21 2 57Wine 95 144 178 209 241 202Total industrial crops 263 421 760 2 041 2 093 1 777

Fruit 6 6 8 10 28 37Tree nuts 14 8 6 11 36 37Vegetables 1 1 2 3 3 3Nursery 0 0 1 1 0 0Other horticulture e 3 4 3 4 4 4Total horticulture 23 20 20 29 71 82Other crops and crop products 7 7 8 22 30 31Total crops 666 938 1 305 3 128 3 493 4 125

Beef and veal 20 17 28 40 406 785Live breeder cattle g 37 102 102 133 125 195Lamb 34 34 63 73 108 184Mutton 9 13 12 14 102 209Other meat and live animals h 0 5 4 0 1 5Total meat and live animals 101 171 209 260 741 1 378

Greasy 1 328 1 460 1 864 1 925 1 844 1 713Semi‐processed 55 62 21 24 18 18Skins 271 257 351 369 337 378Total 1 654 1 779 2 235 2 319 2 200 2 109

Butter 3 5 4 7 6 7Cheese 14 23 30 37 44 74Casein 5 7 1 1 1 1Skim milk powder 39 22 37 50 35 108Whole milk powder 48 38 52 11 56 159Other dairy products 54 45 35 58 68 71Total dairy product exports 164 139 159 164 210 421Other livestock exports 483 501 558 614 635 778Total livestock exports 2 401 2 591 3 161 3 357 3 786 4 685Total agricultural exports 3 067 3 529 4 466 6 485 7 280 8 811a Includes the grain equivalent of malt. b Includes the grain equivalent of wheat flour. c Includes grains not separately listed. d Excludes cotton waste and linters. e Other horticulture includes mainly coffee, tea, spices, essential oils and other miscellaneous horticultural products. g Includes dairy cattle and buffalo. h Includes meat and other live animals not listed separately.Note: Zero is used to denote nil or less than $0.5million.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture, Canberra

18AgriculturalexportstoChina(fob)Australia

Dairy products

Farm

Industrial crops

Horticulture

Meat and live animals

Wool

CropsGrains

Agricultural exports


TABLE 19 Agricultural exports to Indonesia (fob) Australia19A i lt l t t I d i (f b)19AgriculturalexportstoIndonesia(fob)Australia2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 s2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 s

$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $mFarmFarmCropsCropsGrainsbarley a 15 13 9 10 7 6Grains barley a 15 13 9 10 7 6wheat b 1 416 752 1 144 1 156 1 395 1 194 wheat b 1 416 752 1 144 1 156 1 395 1 194other grains oilseedsother grains, oilseedsand pulses c 5 3 15 14 12 28 and pulses c 5 3 15 14 12 28Total grains oilseeds and pulses 1 436 768 1 169 1 180 1 414 1 228Total grains, oilseeds and pulses 1 436 768 1 169 1 180 1 414 1 228Industrial cropsRaw cotton d 163 160 247 282 220 174Industrial cropsRaw cotton d 163 160 247 282 220 174Sugar 231 420 296 302 316 393Sugar 231 420 296 302 316 393Wine 3 3 4 4 5 3Wine 3 3 4 4 5 3Total industrial crops 396 582 547 588 540 569Total industrial crops 396 582 547 588 540 569HorticultureFruit 37 36 29 33 49 53HorticultureFruit 37 36 29 33 49 53Tree nuts 0 0 0 2 1 1Vegetables 7 13 14 11 12 11gNursery 0 0 0 0 0 0yOther horticulture e 1 1 2 3 2 3Total horticulture 45 50 45 49 65 68h d dOther crops and crop products 10 13 15 17 24 26

Total crops 1 887 1 413 1 775 1 835 2 043 1 892

f d lMeat and live animalsBeef and veal 136 169 169 156 132 245Li f d / l ht ttlLive feeder/slaughter cattle g 449 428 287 252 165 452Li b d ttl h 4 13 3 2 9 9Live breeder cattle h 4 13 3 2 9 9L b 4 5 6 9 8 4Lamb 4 5 6 9 8 4Mutton 1 1 1 1 2 1Mutton 1 1 1 1 2 1Other meat and live animals i 1 0 0 0 0 0Other meat and live animals i 1 0 0 0 0 0Total meat and live animals 594 615 466 421 316 712Total meat and live animals 594 615 466 421 316 712Wool 1 1 1 0 0 1Wool 1 1 1 0 0 1Dairy productsB tt 8 9 9 4 5 7Dairy productsButter 8 9 9 4 5 7Cheese 15 22 19 19 18 18Cheese 15 22 19 19 18 18Casein 9 10 5 7 9 10Casein 9 10 5 7 9 10Skim milk powder 41 49 80 72 68 126Skim milk powder 41 49 80 72 68 126Whole milk powder 46 29 40 34 18 37Whole milk powder 46 29 40 34 18 37Other dairy products 38 15 17 19 21 21Other dairy products 38 15 17 19 21 21Total dairy product exports 158 134 169 155 140 220Total dairy product exports 158 134 169 155 140 220Other livestock exports 138 114 101 113 146 147Other livestock exports 138 114 101 113 146 147Total livestock exports 892 865 737 689 603 1 079Total livestock exports 892 865 737 689 603 1 079Total agricultural exports 2 779 2 278 2 512 2 524 2 646 2 971Total agricultural exports 2 779 2 278 2 512 2 524 2 646 2 971a Includes the grain equivalent of malt b Includes the grain equivalent of wheat flour c Includes grains not separatelya Includes the grain equivalent of malt. b Includes the grain equivalent of wheat flour. c Includes grains not separately listed oilseeds and pulses d Excludes cotton waste and linters e Other horticulture includes mainly coffee tea spiceslisted, oilseeds and pulses. d Excludes cotton waste and linters. e Other horticulture includes mainly coffee, tea, spices, essential oils and other miscellaneous horticultural products g Includes buffalo h Includes dairy cattle and buffaloessential oils and other miscellaneous horticultural products. g Includes buffalo. h Includes dairy cattle and buffalo. i Includes meat and other live animals not listed separately s ABARES estimatei Includes meat and other live animals not listed separately. s ABARES estimate.Note: Zero is used to denote nil or less than $0 5 millionNote: Zero is used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture CanberraSources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture, Canberra



TABLE 20 Agricultural exports to Japan (fob) Australia

STATISTICS

20 Agricultural exports to Japan (fob) A l20AgriculturalexportstoJapan(fob)Australia2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 s2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 s

$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $mFarmFarmG iGrainsbarley a 335 284 260 316 292 283 barley a 335 284 260 316 292 283grain sorghum 319 0 10 219 202 16 grain sorghum 319 70 105 219 202 16wheat b 408 299 408 395 392 322 wheat b 408 299 408 395 392 322OilseedsOilseeds

l 65 109 41 47 72 113 canola 65 109 41 47 72 113tt d cottonseed 16 31 24 31 36 31

th i d il dother grains and oilseeds c 7 4 4 9 17 10lPulses 48 33 46 41 41 39

T l i il d d lTotal grains, oilseeds and pulses 1 198 829 889 1 059 1 052 814I d i lIndustrial cropsRaw cotton d 39 31 48 63 28 32Sugar 192 190 194 211 198 225gWine 54 43 44 45 42 41Total industrial crops 285 264 286 319 268 298pHorticultureFruit 70 61 70 59 63 61Tree nuts 15 17 16 20 23 19Vegetables 48 33 46 41 41 39gNursery 6 4 4 3 3 2y 6 3 3Other horticulture e 4 5 7 6 4 9 4 5 7 6 4 9Total horticulture 144 120 142 129 133 130 144 120 142 129 133 130Other crops and crop products 61 47 54 47 50 40p p p 61 47 54 47 50 40Total crops 1 688 1 260 1 371 1 553 1 503 1 283p 1 688 1 260 1 371 1 553 1 503 1 283Meat and live animalsBeef and veal 2 066 1 682 1 667 1 549 1 439 1 446Meat and live animalsBeef and veal 2 066 1 682 1 667 1 549 1 439 1 446Live feeder/slaughter cattle g 14 15 16 20 15 15Live feeder/slaughter cattle g 14 15 16 20 15 15Lamb 67 52 60 63 54 76Lamb 67 52 60 63 54 76Mutton 39 24 26 24 17 29Mutton 39 24 26 24 17 29Other meat and live animals h 6 3 3 3 3 4Other meat and live animals h 6 3 3 3 3 4Total meat and live animals 2 193 1 776 1 772 1 658 1 528 1 570Total meat and live animals 2 193 1 776 1 772 1 658 1 528 1 570WoolGreasy 2 4 9 12 8 1Wool Greasy 2 4 9 12 8 1Semi‐processed 12 12 23 26 21 10Semi‐processed 12 12 23 26 21 10Skins 3 1 1 2 1 2Skins 3 1 1 2 1 2Total 17 17 33 39 30 12Total 17 17 33 39 30 12Dairy productsButter 11 2 6 9 4 2Dairy productsButter 11 2 6 9 4 2Cheese 399 358 356 423 415 343Cheese 399 358 356 423 415 343Casein 44 26 22 21 17 20Casein 44 26 22 21 17 20Skim milk powder 22 3 2 2 5 17Skim milk powder 22 3 2 2 5 17Whole milk powder 0 0 0 1 0 0Whole milk powder 0 0 0 1 0 0Other dairy products 47 46 38 45 66 38Other dairy products 47 46 38 45 66 38Total dairy product exports 522 436 423 500 507 420Total dairy product exports 522 436 423 500 507 420Other li estock e ports 437 320 337 302 293 276Other livestock exports 437 320 337 302 293 276T t l li t k t 3 168 2 549 2 566 2 499 2 358 2 278Total livestock exports 3 168 2 549 2 566 2 499 2 358 2 278Total agricultural exports 4 856 3 808 3 937 4 052 3 861 3 561Total agricultural exports 4 856 3 808 3 937 4 052 3 861 3 561I l d th i i l t f lt b I l d th i i l t f h t fl I l d i d il da Includes the grain equivalent of malt. b Includes the grain equivalent of wheat flour. c Includes grains and oilseeds

l l d d l d d l h h l l d l ffnot separately listed. d Excludes cotton waste and linters. e Other horticulture includes mainly coffee, tea, spices, essential oils and other miscellaneous horticultural products. g Excludes breeding stock and includes buffalo for feeder/slaughter purposes. h Includes other meat and live animals not listed separately. s ABARES estimate.g p p p yNote: Zero is used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.$Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture, CanberraSources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture, Canberra




TABLE 21 Agricultural exports to Republic of Korea (fob) Australia21A i lt l t t R bli f K (f b)21AgriculturalexportstoRepublicofKorea(fob)Australia2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13 2013 14 s

g p p ( )2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 s

$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $mFFarmCCrops

b lGrains barley a 85 54 75 94 87 119

h wheat b 351 219 368 628 449 310 corn (maize) 10 4 4 12 20 23 corn (maize)Oilseeds cottonseed 2 5 16 26 37 30Oilseeds cottonseed 2 5 16 26 37 30other grains and oilseeds c 2 2 1 0 2 6g 2 2 1 2 6Pulses 21 70 51 36 74 45Pulses 21 70 51 36 74 45Total grains, oilseeds and pulses 471 353 514 797 668 532Total grains, oilseeds and pulses 471 353 514 797 668 532Industrial cropsRaw cotton d 22 62 58 120 119 130Industrial cropsRaw cotton d 22 62 58 120 119 130Sugar 425 685 424 521 475 344Sugar 425 685 424 521 475 344Wine 11 9 7 9 10 8Wine 11 9 7 9 10 8Total industrial crops 458 755 490 650 605 482Total industrial crops 458 755 490 650 605 482HorticultureFruit 4 4 4 5 7 6HorticultureFruit 4 4 4 5 7 6Tree nuts 1 1 1 3 2 4Tree nuts 1 1 1 3 2 4Vegetables 3 4 8 9 7 5Vegetables 3 4 8 9 7 5Other horticulture e 3 2 2 2 3 5Other horticulture e 3 2 2 2 3 5Total horticulture 11 10 15 19 19 19Total horticulture 11 10 15 19 19 19Other crops and crop products 106 114 119 117 131 144Other crops and crop products 106 114 119 117 131 144Total crops 1 045 1 232 1 138 1 583 1 423 1 178Total crops 1 045 1 232 1 138 1 583 1 423 1 178Meat and live animalsBeef and veal 532 535 656 572 641 844Meat and live animalsBeef and veal 532 535 656 572 641 844Lamb 8 10 13 15 14 24Lamb 8 10 13 15 14 24Mutton 4 4 5 4 4 6Mutton 4 4 5 4 4 6Other meat and live animals g 1 1 2 1 1 1Other meat and live animals g 1 1 2 1 1 1Total meat and live animals 544 549 676 592 659 875Total meat and live animals 544 549 676 592 659 875Wool 37 41 36 43 44 61Wool 37 41 36 43 44 61Dair prod ctsB 12 13 16 9 7 6Dairy productsButter 12 13 16 9 7 6Ch 0 28 3 3 30 26Cheese 40 28 37 31 30 26C iCasein 5 3 2 2 2 1Ski ilk dSkim milk powder 22 18 23 23 19 27h l ilk dWhole milk powder 5 3 6 7 2 3h d dOther dairy products 28 19 25 29 17 19l d dTotal dairy product exports 111 84 109 103 77 82

Other livestock exports 94 93 108 125 100 118Total livestock exports 785 768 930 862 879 1136T l i l lTotal agricultural exports 1 830 2 000 2 068 2 446 2 303 2 313a Includes the grain equivalent of malt. b Includes the grain equivalent of wheat flour. c Includes grains and oilseeds g q g q gnot separately listed. d Excludes cotton waste and linters. e Other horticulture includes mainly nursery, coffee, tea, p y y y, , ,spices, essential oils and other miscellaneous horticultural products. g Includes meat and other animals not listed spices, essential oils and other miscellaneous horticultural products. g Includes meat and other animals not listed separately. s ABARES forecast.separately. s ABARES forecast.Note: Zero is used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.Note: Zero is used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture, CanberraSources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture, Canberra


TABLE 22 Agricultural exports to the United States (fob) Australia

STATISTICS

22 Agricultural exports to the United States (fob) A l22AgriculturalexportstotheUnitedStates(fob)Australia2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 s2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 s

$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $mFarmCropsFarm

G iCropsGrains 1 0 0 0 1 2l dOilseeds 0 10 0 20 50 66

Pulses 4 3 4 5 4 5Total grains, oilseeds and pulses 4 13 4 25 55 73Industrial cropsSugar 78 68 92 135 66 54

pg

Wine 762 627 524 493 483 472Total industrial crops 841 695 616 628 549 526pHorticultureFruit 60 67 33 33 25 3160 67 33 33 25 31Tree nuts 20 22 12 15 28 4820 22 12 15 28 48Vegetables 8 7 6 5 5 6g 8 7 6 5 5 6Nursery 4 3 2 2 2 2y 4 3 2 2 2 2Other horticulture a 18 14 16 15 19 2818 14 16 15 19 28Total horticulture 109 112 69 69 79 115Total horticulture 109 112 69 69 79 115Other crops and crop products 174 167 168 142 191 258Other crops and crop products 174 167 168 142 191 258Total crops 1 128 987 857 864 873 973Total crops 1 128 987 857 864 873 973Meat and live animalsBeef and veal 1 225 817 704 896 961 1 375Meat and live animalsBeef and veal 1 225 817 704 896 961 1 375Lamb 354 303 335 305 295 399Lamb 354 303 335 305 295 399Mutton 35 32 38 21 34 49Mutton 35 32 38 21 34 49Other meat and live animals b 0 0 0 0 0 0Other meat and live animals b 0 0 0 0 0 0Total meat and live animals 1 615 1 152 1 077 1 222 1 290 1 823Total meat and live animals 1 615 1 152 1 077 1 222 1 290 1 823WoolGreasy 7 9 11 8 7 4Wool Greasy 7 9 11 8 7 4Semi‐processed 1 3 3 3 2 2Semi‐processed 1 3 3 3 2 2Skins 0 0 0 0 0 0Skins 0 0 0 0 0 0Total 8 12 14 11 9 7Total 8 12 14 11 9 7Dairy productsButter 19 10 3 7 13 1Dairy productsButter 19 10 3 7 13 1Cheese 60 20 12 3 11 9Cheese 60 20 12 3 11 9Casein 29 23 13 7 9 4Casein 29 23 13 7 9 4Whole milk powder 8 9 4 4 5 0Whole milk powder 8 9 4 4 5 0Other dairy products 10 13 18 15 16 11Other dairy products 10 13 18 15 16 11Total dairy product exports 127 75 50 35 53 24Total dairy product exports 127 75 50 35 53 24Oth li t k t 125 116 125 115 136 176Other livestock exports 125 116 125 115 136 176T t l li t k t 1 875 1 354 1 266 1 383 1 488 2 030Total livestock exports 1 875 1 354 1 266 1 383 1 488 2 030Total agricultural exports 3 003 2 341 2 123 2 248 2 361 3 003Total agricultural exports 3 003 2 341 2 123 2 248 2 361 3 003Oth h ti lt i l d i l ff t i ti l il d th i ll h ti lt l d ta Other horticulture includes mainly coffee, tea, spices, essential oils and other miscellaneous horticultural products.

b l d d l l l d l fb Includes meat and live animals not listed separately. s ABARES forecast.Note: Zero is used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture, Canberrap g



Fisheries exports

TABLE 23 Volume of fisheries products exports Australia

STATISTICS

23 Volume of fisheries products exports Australia23VolumeoffisheriesproductsexportsAustralia2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–142008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14

k k k k k kkt kt kt kt kt ktEdible aFishEdible aFishLi 1 1 1 0 0 9 0 9 0 8 0 9 Live 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 Tuna 11.5 9.5 7.8 8.9 8.9 11.0 Tuna 11.5 9.5 7.8 8.9 8.9 11.0Salmonids 6 6 4 0 6 4 5 8 2 6 1 8 Salmonids 6.6 4.0 6.4 5.8 2.6 1.8Swordfish 0 4 0 4 0 4 0 5 0 5 0 4 Swordfish 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4Whi i Whiting 1.4 1.3 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.1g Other fish 5.8 5.4 5.5 5.1 4.7 4.4 Other fish 5.8 5.4 5.5 5.1 4.7 4.4Total fish 26 8 21 7 22 7 22 0 17 8 18 6Total fish 26.8 21.7 22.7 22.0 17.8 18.6C t d llCrustaceans and molluscs Rock lobster 9.6 7.7 7.0 6.9 7.8 8.0 Rock lobster 9.6 7.7 7.0 6.9 7.8 8.0Prawns 4.8 4.7 6.4 5.4 3.9 7.1 Prawns 4.8 4.7 6.4 5.4 3.9 7.1Abalone 3 3 3 6 3 4 3 1 2 8 2 7 Abalone 3.3 3.6 3.4 3.1 2.8 2.7S ll Scallops 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5p Crabs 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.4 Crabs 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.4Other crustaceans and molluscs 1 1 1 0 1 2 1 7 2 1 1 6 Other crustaceans and molluscs 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.7 2.1 1.6Total crustaceans and molluscs 21 2 19 2 19 6 18 4 17 5 20 3Total crustaceans and molluscs 21.2 19.2 19.6 18.4 17.5 20.3Total edible 48.0 40.9 42.4 40.5 35.3 38.9Total edible 48.0 40.9 42.4 40.5 35.3 38.9a Includes prepared and preserveda Includes prepared and preserved.Source: Australian Bureau of StatisticsSource: Australian Bureau of Statistics


Fisheries exports

TABLE 24 Value of fisheries products exports (fob) Australia

STATISTICS

2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14$m $m $m $m $m $m

Fish Live 46.5 40.4 33.4 32.0 30.7 34.2 Tuna 176.8 118.5 131.4 162.7 162.6 135.5 Salmonids 47.2 29.6 54.4 41.8 25.4 17.4 Swordfish 3.6 4.2 4.5 4.2 3.9 3.9 Whiting 3.4 3.4 5.0 2.5 1.4 0.2 Other fish 55.7 61.6 58.1 46.2 34.2 34.2Total fish 333.1 257.8 286.8 289.4 258.2 225.4

Rock lobster 461.6 399.7 369.3 386.7 447.3 590.3 Prawns 82.2 61.5 77.1 66.7 51.8 101.0 Abalone 208.2 216.4 212.0 197.3 186.0 170.0 Scallops 33.3 29.5 15.4 15.3 10.8 13.6 Crabs 16.4 13.8 13.4 11.0 8.2 5.5Other crustaceans and molluscs 9.7 8.5 16.3 34.4 40.2 32.5Total crustaceans and molluscs 811.4 729.3 703.6 711.3 744.2 912.9Total edible 1 144.5 987.1 990.3 1 000.7 1 002.3 1 138.4

Marine fats and oils 5.0 4.8 5.4 7.3 10.0 9.1 Fish meal 1.3 2.1 1.6 0.4 1.0 0.7 Pearls a 366.4 243.9 241.3 206.6 151.5 144.4 Ornamental fish 3.4 2.7 2.3 2.3 3.8 2.0 Other non‐edible 7.8 5.5 7.3 9.4 6.5 9.7Total non‐edible 384.0 259.0 257.9 226.1 172.8 165.9Total fisheries products 1 528.5 1 246.1 1 248.2 1 226.8 1 175.2 1 304.3

24Valueoffisheriesproductsexports(fob)Australia

Edible

Crustaceans and molluscs

Non‐edible

a Includes items temporarily exported and re‐imported.Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics


Fisheries imports

TABLE 25 Volume of fisheries products imports Australia2525 Volume of fisheries products imports Australia25VolumeoffisheriesproductsimportsAustralia2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–142008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14

kt kt kt kt kt ktkt kt kt kt kt ktEdible aFishEdible aFishTuna 38 0 39 9 45 6 40 8 46 9 50 1 Tuna 38.0 39.9 45.6 40.8 46.9 50.1 Salmonids 10.9 9.8 9.9 10.2 11.9 14.2Hake 5.7 5.4 6.7 5.3 6.1 4.5 Hake 5.7 5.4 6.7 5.3 6.1 4.5Swordfish 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 Swordfish 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2T thfi h 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 2 0 2 Toothfish 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 Herrings 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.8 0.9 Herrings 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.8 0.9Shark 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 Shark 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7Other fish 77 2 83 3 83 1 86 6 92 8 90 0 Other fish 77.2 83.3 83.1 86.6 92.8 90.0Total fish b 133.4 140.3 147.1 144.4 160.5 160.8Crustaceans and molluscsPrawns 26 7 34 5 32 6 37 5 34 8 38 7Crustaceans and molluscs Prawns 26.7 34.5 32.6 37.5 34.8 38.7L b t 0 5 0 7 0 9 0 9 0 8 1 0 Lobster 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.0 Crabs 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 2.1 Crabs 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 2.1Mussels 2.8 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.7 3.6 Mussels 2.8 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.7 3.6Scallops 2 2 2 8 2 6 3 0 3 1 3 5 Scallops 2.2 2.8 2.6 3.0 3.1 3.5S id d t 16 8 16 0 15 2 17 0 19 9 23 2 Squid and octopus 16.8 16.0 15.2 17.0 19.9 23.2q p Other crustaceans and molluscs 9.9 9.6 9.4 7.3 4.1 4.8 Other crustaceans and molluscs 9.9 9.6 9.4 7.3 4.1 4.8Total crustaceans and molluscs 59 9 67 2 64 7 69 8 67 9 76 7Total crustaceans and molluscs 59.9 67.2 64.7 69.8 67.9 76.7T t l dibl b 193 3 207 4 211 8 214 2 228 4 237 5Total edible abc 193.3 207.4 211.8 214.2 228.4 237.5a Includes prepared and preserved. b Excludes live tonnage. c Includes other fisheries products not classified into fish or p p p g pcrustaceans and molluscs.crustaceans and molluscs.Source: Australian Bureau of StatisticsSource: Australian Bureau of Statistics


Fisheries imports

TABLE 26 Value of fisheries products imports Australia

STATISTICS

26 Value of fisheries products imports Australia26ValueoffisheriesproductsimportsAustralia2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–142008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14

$ $ $ $ $ $$m $m $m $m $m $mEdible aFishEdible aFishT 223 3 169 3 200 8 205 5 258 2 296 1 Tuna 223.3 169.3 200.8 205.5 258.2 296.1 Salmonids 100.0 85.8 84.4 91.8 118.8 167.5 Salmonids 100.0 85.8 84.4 91.8 118.8 167.5Hake 31 0 26 1 27 2 20 9 23 4 19 5 Hake 31.0 26.1 27.2 20.9 23.4 19.5Swordfish 1 5 1 8 1 5 1 2 1 7 1 4 Swordfish 1.5 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.7 1.4T hfi h Toothfish 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.3 2.2 3.0 Herrings 4.4 4.5 4.3 4.2 5.1 4.5 Herrings 4.4 4.5 4.3 4.2 5.1 4.5Shark 4 5 5 6 4 4 4 0 4 6 5 5 Shark 4.5 5.6 4.4 4.0 4.6 5.5Other fish 455 5 455 0 443 7 459 6 480 0 507 5 Other fish 455.5 455.0 443.7 459.6 480.0 507.5Total fish b 824.6 751.5 769.1 788.6 866.5 1 004.9Total fish bCrustaceans and molluscsPrawns 270 7 298 7 291 0 350 9 304 8 495 1Crustaceans and molluscs Prawns 270.7 298.7 291.0 350.9 304.8 495.1L b Lobster 9.8 11.8 15.0 16.0 15.3 22.4 Crabs 11.3 12.4 13.3 15.5 16.8 28.3 Crabs 11.3 12.4 13.3 15.5 16.8 28.3Mussels 12 0 9 3 10 2 11 7 17 1 19 1 Mussels 12.0 9.3 10.2 11.7 17.1 19.1Scallops 29 9 33 5 34 5 43 6 41 1 52 9 Scallops 29.9 33.5 34.5 43.6 41.1 52.9

d d Squid and octopus 54.3 62.0 74.3 90.4 97.7 114.5q p Other crustaceans and molluscs 70.1 66.5 65.3 57.0 40.7 44.0 Other crustaceans and molluscs 70.1 66.5 65.3 57.0 40.7 44.0Total crustaceans and molluscs 458 1 494 2 503 5 585 1 533 4 776 3Total crustaceans and molluscs 458.1 494.2 503.5 585.1 533.4 776.3T l dibl b 1 279 4 1 243 9 1 271 3 1 373 8 1 427 7 1 781 3Total edible abc 1 279.4 1 243.9 1 271.3 1 373.8 1 427.7 1 781.3Non‐ediblePearls d 320 6 170 8 166 9 138 2 105 4 102 1Non ediblePearls d 320.6 170.8 166.9 138.2 105.4 102.1Fish meal 41 9 51 9 46 7 34 2 43 3 43 2Fish meal 41.9 51.9 46.7 34.2 43.3 43.2

l fi hOrnamental fish 5.8 4.6 3.9 3.7 4.0 4.5Marine fats and oils 33.9 26.8 31.0 39.5 39.1 40.1Marine fats and oils 33.9 26.8 31.0 39.5 39.1 40.1Other marine products 24 9 14 9 9 9 17 1 29 0 30 4Other marine products 24.9 14.9 9.9 17.1 29.0 30.4Total non edible 427 1 269 0 258 4 232 8 220 7 220 3Total non‐edible 427.1 269.0 258.4 232.8 220.7 220.3Total fisheries products 1 706.5 1 512.9 1 529.7 1 606.6 1 648.4 2 001.6Total fisheries products 1 706.5 1 512.9 1 529.7 1 606.6 1 648.4 2 001.6a Includes prepared and preserved b Includes live value c Includes other fisheries products not classified intoa Includes prepared and preserved. b Includes live value. c Includes other fisheries products not classified into fi h t d ll dM i l i tfish or crustaceans and molluscs. d Mainly re‐imports.Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics


Fisheries trade

TABLE 27 Value of Australian fisheries products trade, by selected countries Australia

STATISTICS

2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14$m $m $m $m $m $m

Hong Kong 570.1 530.0 425.9 479.1 317.0 208.9Vietnam 3.2 4.3 8.4 60.5 293.2 565.6Japan 302.5 215.5 225.9 254.6 236.0 192.1China 29.9 43.5 143.2 58.5 45.2 36.6Singapore 43.6 37.4 41.2 42.5 31.0 34.2United States 64.9 49.5 35.7 23.1 17.9 22.1Taiwan 53.8 32.5 29.6 17.5 9.8 13.7Thailand 7.3 9.0 16.0 18.1 9.3 8.0New Zealand 8.8 16.6 9.6 10.1 9.1 14.5Malaysia 12.7 9.2 12.9 7.7 7.8 9.9Indonesia 4.7 6.9 8.7 6.1 7.4 9.9

Hong Kong 201.0 137.8 145.1 96.6 54.3 74.6Japan 64.3 49.8 43.3 44.4 33.0 26.9United States 22.2 15.5 8.1 22.2 21.0 19.2

Thailand 367.9 322.1 340.2 362.1 399.8 417.0New Zealand 206.9 212.3 210.0 197.3 206.3 206.8China 151.7 173.0 185.6 231.5 196.5 341.5Vietnam 167.4 152.7 161.7 174.5 163.1 231.7Malaysia 65.2 63.0 71.2 73.2 81.0 97.9United States 49.4 37.3 39.9 45.1 52.2 56.0Indonesia 30.9 38.9 27.9 36.3 50.9 73.5Taiwan 32.9 36.7 39.5 38.9 48.1 44.5South Africa 36.0 35.8 33.1 32.2 36.2 50.5Denmark 23.4 29.6 28.2 31.3 35.1 31.6Norway 24.2 23.6 18.8 25.3 32.2 44.8Other 20.1 26.7 24.7 27.1 29.9 45.4

27ValueofAustralianfisheryproductstrade,byselectedcountriesAustrali

a Country details for non‐edible imports are not available.Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Exports

Imports a

Edible (including live)

Non‐edible

Edible (excluding live)


Forest exports

TABLE 28 Volume of forest products exports Australia

STATISTICS

unit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14

Roundwood ’000 m3 986 1 377 1 638 1 806 1 516 2 363

Softwood roughsawn ’000 m3 283 322 265 198 207 268 Softwood dressed ’000 m3 18 13 13 13 3 5 Hardwood roughsawn ’000 m3 40 37 39 26 20 73 Hardwood dressed ’000 m3 14 16 30 15 7 25 Total ’000 m3 355 387 348 252 237 371Railway sleepers ’000 m3 9 9 8 8 8 17

Veneers ’000 m3 86 90 119 106 52 64 Plywood ’000 m3 53 24 7 18 36 36 Particleboard ’000 m3 17 9 5 4 2 6 Hardboard b ’000 m3 2 1 2 2 2 3 Medium‐density fibreboard ’000 m3 181 130 115 79 52 172 Softboard and other fibreboards ’000 m3 8 2 5 5 1 1 Total ’000 m3 345 256 253 214 146 280Paper and paperboard Newsprint kt 2 6 19 30 72 85 Printing and writing kt 112 146 84 132 139 153 Household and sanitary kt 38 31 39 26 12 20 Packaging and industrial kt 617 708 887 933 906 950 Total kt 769 890 1 029 1 121 1 127 1 207Recovered paper kt 1 216 1 444 1 323 1 403 1 506 1 449Pulp kt 22 18 31 1 0 0Woodchips cd kt 5 255 4 818 5 064 4 150 3 806 4 776

Quantity

Sawnwood a

Wood‐based panels

28VolumeofforestryproductexportsAustralia

a Excludes railway sleepers. b Uncoated hardboard confidential from January 2007. c Includes particles. d Bone dry tonnes.Note: Components may not add to totals due to rounding. Zero is used to denote nil or less than 500 tonnes.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasia


Forest exports

TABLE 29 Value of forest products exports (fob) Australia

STATISTICS

2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14$m $m $m $m $m $m

Roundwood 101 138 198 175 155 292

Softwood roughsawn 70 76 67 55 61 75 Softwoods dressed 9 7 5 3 2 3 Hardwood roughsawn 37 33 34 23 20 22 Hardwood dressed 9 10 10 7 6 7 Total 125 125 115 88 90 108Railway sleepers 4 2 3 3 3 3Miscellaneous forest products a 54 61 66 59 54 63

Veneers 36 44 52 51 24 29 Plywood 4 3 2 2 4 3 Particleboard 7 3 2 1 1 1 Hardboard b 1 1 2 2 2 2 Medium‐density fibreboard c 52 45 39 26 19 26 Softboard and other fibreboards 1 1 1 1 0 0 Total 101 97 98 83 51 62

Newsprint 2 6 13 15 36 59 Printing and writing 128 143 88 120 117 139 Household and sanitary 111 97 94 64 33 49 Packaging and industrial 364 404 552 518 526 605 Total 606 649 747 717 712 853Paper manufactures d 106 102 112 134 132 132Recovered paper 235 228 240 240 230 241Pulp 18 13 11 1 0 0Woodchips 997 856 884 729 611 768Total 2 346 2 271 2 475 2 229 2 037 2 520a Includes such items as wooden doors, mouldings, packing cases, parquetry flooring, builders carpentry, cork, gums, resins, eucalyptus oils and other miscellaneous wood articles. Excludes wooden furniture. b Uncoated hardboard confidential from January 2007. c Some categories of medium‐density fibreboard are confidential. d Includes other paper articles that have had some further processing.Note: Components may not add to totals due to rounding. Zero is used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasia

Value

Sawnwood

Paper and paperboard

Wood‐based panels

29Valueofforestryproductsexports(fob)Australia


Forest imports

TABLE 30 Volume of forest products imports Australia

unit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14

Roundwood ’000 m3 1 1 1 1 1 1Sawnwood a Softwood roughsawn ’000 m3 256 293 290 239 247 271 Softwood dressed ’000 m3 279 367 468 470 443 449 Hardwood roughsawn ’000 m3 51 43 43 46 41 41 Hardwood dressed ’000 m3 43 45 45 36 28 25 Total ’000 m3 628 748 846 791 759 786

Veneers ’000 m3 21 15 17 15 13 9 Plywood ’000 m3 199 228 278 293 278 287 Particleboard ’000 m3 69 64 72 68 72 97 Hardboard ’000 m3 24 33 49 69 60 86 Medium‐density fibreboard ’000 m3 88 70 58 95 80 65 Softboard and other fibreboards ’000 m3 11 6 7 7 6 5 Total ’000 m3 412 416 480 547 508 549

Newsprint kt 198 191 222 121 85 75 Printing and writing kt 1 122 1 167 1 237 1 174 1 155 1 172 Household and sanitary kt 82 101 114 118 159 123 Packaging and industrial kt 254 285 314 333 385 357 Total kt 1 656 1 744 1 886 1 746 1 783 1 727Recovered paper kt 3 3 2 3 4 5Pulp kt 345 265 233 256 263 297Woodchips kt 1 1 1 1 1 2

30VolumeofforestryproductimportsAustralia

Wood‐based panels


Quantity

a Excludes railway sleepers.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasia


Forest imports

TABLE 31 Value of forest products imports Australia

STATISTICS

2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14$m $m $m $m $m $m

Roundwood 1 0 1 1 1 1

Softwood roughsawn 134 140 135 105 100 111 Softwood dressed 168 200 248 248 246 281 Hardwood roughsawn 49 39 40 44 41 46 Hardwood dressed 55 50 50 51 35 31 Total 405 429 473 448 423 468Miscellaneous forest products a 651 603 688 741 734 907

Veneers 28 22 21 21 19 15 Plywood 145 138 170 183 184 210 Particleboard 27 20 21 26 27 35 Hardboard 26 30 40 54 48 72 Medium‐density fibreboard 41 37 34 36 32 35 Softboard and other fibreboards 4 3 3 3 2 3 Total 271 250 289 323 311 370

Newsprint 173 158 176 91 58 49 Printing and writing 1 468 1 355 1 347 1 217 1 151 1 194 Household and sanitary 154 164 185 187 244 208 Packaging and industrial 481 499 515 543 590 654 Total 2 276 2 175 2 223 2 037 2 043 2 105Paper manufactures b 590 563 557 486 446 537Recovered paper 1 1 0 1 1 2Pulp 263 178 180 164 154 203Woodchips 2 1 2 2 3 3Total 4 459 4 200 4 412 4 202 4 116 4 596

Value

Sawnwood

Wood‐based panels


31ValueofforestryproductsimportsAustralia

a Includes such items as wooden doors, mouldings, packing cases, parquetry flooring, builders carpentry, cork, gums, resins, eucalyptus oils and other miscellaneous wood articles. Excludes wooden furniture. b Includes other paper articles that have had some further processing. na Not available.Note: Components may not add to totals due to rounding. Zero used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasia


TABLE 32 Value of Australian forest products trade, by selected countries a

STATISTICS

32 Value of Australian forestry products trade, by selected countries a32ValueofAustralianforestryproductstrade,byselectedcountriesa2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–142008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14

$ $ $ $ $ $$m $m $m $m $m $mExports bChina 390 394 544 534 474 naExports bChina 390 394 544 534 474 naH K 51 69 42 39 16Hong Kong 51 69 42 39 16 naJapan 860 774 745 579 394 naJapan 860 5 5 9 39 aKorea, Rep. of 103 48 40 40 33 naKorea, Rep. of 103 48 40 40 33 naMalaysia 79 324 1 553 112 113 naMalaysia 79 324 1 553 112 113 naN Z l d 324 320 315 306 268New Zealand 324 320 315 306 268 naTaiwan 78 88 79 68 68 naTaiwan 78 88 79 68 68 naImportsChi 611 624 680 797 910ImportsChina 611 624 680 797 910 naFinland 274 171 143 120 205 naFinlandGermany 167 178 183 147 134 naGermany 167 178 183 147 134 naIndonesia 374 351 332 342 313 naIndonesia 374 351 332 342 313 naM l i 215 217 228 233 223Malaysia 215 217 228 233 223 nayNew Zealand 744 703 715 634 556 naNew Zealand 744 703 715 634 556 naUnited States 320 313 285 297 303 naUnited States 320 313 285 297 303 naa Value of wood products trade to selected countries cannot be reported for 2013 14 due to confidentiality restrictions fora Value of wood products trade to selected countries cannot be reported for 2013–14 due to confidentiality restrictions for

d hi d d i b l f d d l d i l d dwoodchip exports and some paper product imports. b Value of wood products exports to selected countries may exclude data where confidentiality restrictions apply. na Not available.where confidentiality restrictions apply. na Not available.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of StatisticsSources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

Forestry trade


ABARES reports released since Agricultural commodities (vol. 4 no. 3 September quarter 2014)The selection provides an overview of the range of interests ABARES covers.

Full reports can be downloaded from agriculture.gov.au/abares/publications. For more information contact [email protected].

Research reports

Australia’s airfreight food exports: trends, issues and case studies

Research report 14.14

Publication date: 18 September 2014Authors: Lindsay Hogan and Kristopher Morey

The report examines trends and issues in the supply chain for Australia’s airfreight food exports. It is part of broader research being undertaken by ABARES on how improvements to Australia’s infrastructure and biosecurity systems would help food producers realise the potential of new and expanding export market opportunities.

Australian vegetable growing farms: an economic survey 2012–13 and 2013–14


Publication date: 14 November 2014Author: Haydn Valle

This report contains results from the latest ABARES survey of vegetable farms, which was conducted between March and June 2014 and covers 2012–13 and 2013–14.

Report extracts

http://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/publications

mailto:[email protected]


What India wants: analysis of India’s food demand to 2050


Publication date: 26 November 2014Authors: Patrick Hamshere, Yu Sheng, Brian Moir, Caroline Gunning-Trantand David Mobsby

This report assesses future trends in Indian food consumption, production and trade under four hypothetical scenarios, which involve reform to existing producer and consumer support policies and increased investment in productivity and infrastructure.

Technical reports

Australian native forest commerciality

Technical report 14.3

Publication date: 6 November 2014Authors: Stuart Davey and Geoffrey Dunn

The Australian Sawlog Commerciality Database is the first spatial database of potential sawlog merchantability and productivity of Australia’s native forests. This report describes how the national database was developed and validated. It describes all native forests capable of producing sawlogs commercially in Australia.

Other reports

Economic evaluation of the costs of biosecurity response options to address an incursion of Mytilopsis sallei (black-striped mussel) into AustraliaPublication date: 26 September 2014Authors: Rupert Summerson, Maggie Skirtun, Kasia Mazur, Tony Arthur, Robert Curtotti and Robert Smart

This report compares the costs of eradication with those of containment in dealing with a hypothetical incursion of black-striped mussel (Mytilopsis sallei).

Implementation of improvements to the National Livestock Identification System for sheep and goats: Decision Regulation Impact StatementPublication date: 22 October 2014

ABARES prepared the Decision Regulation Impact Statement to examine options for improving the current National Livestock Identification System for sheep and goats. The report outlines the method and data sources used to conduct the analysis; assesses the costs and benefits of selected options for improving traceability; and recommends a preferred option based on a set of standard assumptions.

Report extracts


Fishery status reports 2013–14Publication date: 23 October 2014

This report reviews the performance of Commonwealth fisheries against the legislative requirements and provides key performance indicators for the Australian Fisheries Management Authority.

Australia’s forests at a glance 2014Publication date: 5 November 2014

The pocketbook covers forest types, areas and how native forests—including old growth forests—are conserved and managed. It also covers: wood harvesting, production and consumption of wood products; employment in the forestry and wood products industries; and forest certification and codes of practice.

Australian forest and wood products statistics: March and June quarters 2014Publication date: 11 November 2014

This issue includes 2012–13 data for key domestic economic indicators—including sales and service income and industry value added—and 2013–14 data for employment and dwelling commencements.

Australian grains: outlook for 2014–15 and industry productivityPublication date: 11 November 2014

This report provides a summary of the September 2014 Australian crop report and the grains section of Agricultural commodities (vol. 4 no. 3 September quarter 2014).

Beef Producer Input Price Index—summary of resultsPublication date: 14 November 2014

Meat & Livestock Australia commissioned ABARES to construct the Beef Producer Input Price Index (BPIPI) to inform beef producers and industry decision-makers on movements in farm costs. ABARES created separate indexes for beef producers in northern Australia and southern Australia. The BPIPI is updated quarterly.

Australian fisheries and aquaculture statistics 2013Publication date: 21 November 2014

This report presents data on Australian consumption, production and trade of fisheries products. Information about the recreational sector and customary fishing by Indigenous Australians is also provided.

Report extracts


Regional socio-economic profiling of the forestry industry—recommendations reportPublication date: 27 November 2014

The report presents options to address key socio-economic data gaps for the forestry sector. Options include scoping of a comprehensive national survey of the sector, improving coordination to encourage consistency across surveys and funders, and developing new methods to improve employment data that is based on nationally representative surveys.

Australian crop reportPublication date: 2 December 2014

This quarterly report provides a consistent and regular assessment of crop prospects for major field crops, forecasts of area, yield and production and a state-by-state summary of seasonal conditions.

Weekly Australian climate, water and agricultural updatePublication date: Every Thursday

This weekly report provides subscribers with access to up-to-date climate, water and commodity information.

Report extracts


ABARES contacts

Executive Director Karen Schneider [email protected] (02) 6272 4636

Agricultural Commodities and TradeAssistant Secretary and Chief Commodity Analyst Jammie Penm [email protected] (02) 6272 2030Agricultural Trade Caroline Gunning-Trant [email protected] (02) 6272 2123Agricultural Commodities Peter Collins [email protected] (02) 6272 2017Outlook Engagement Anna Carr [email protected] (02) 6272 2287Agricultural Risks Management Matthew Miller [email protected] (02) 6272 3527

Farm Analysis and BiosecurityAssistant Secretary Peter Gooday [email protected] (02) 6272 2138Productivity Alistair Davidson [email protected] (02) 6272 2487Infrastructure and Water Tim Goesch [email protected] (02) 6272 2009Farm Survey and Analysis Milly Lubulwa [email protected] (02) 6272 2069Biosecurity Emily Gray [email protected] (02) 6272 2109Invasives and Social Sciences Bertie Hennecke [email protected] (02) 6272 4263

Fisheries, Forestry and LandAssistant Secretary Ilona Stobutzki [email protected] (02) 6272 4277Domestic Fisheries and Marine Peter Ward [email protected] (02) 6272 2015International Fisheries and Data James Larcombe [email protected] (02) 6272 3388Fisheries Economics Robert Curtotti [email protected] (02) 6272 2014Quantitative Sciences Belinda Barnes [email protected] (02) 6272 5374Forest Sciences Steve Read [email protected] (02) 6272 5582Forest Economics Beau Hug [email protected] (02) 6272 3929Data and Land John Sims [email protected] (02) 6272 5732













mailto:ilona.stobutzki@agriculture .gov.au









ABARES contacts

Agricultural commodities December quarter 2014 was designed and produced by the Department of Agriculture and the Agricultural Commodities team of ABARES. Editors: Jane Wiles, Emma Rossiter and Julia Church

Editing, Production, Online and Design John Wilson [email protected] (02) 6272 3811

Library Resources Karen Kidd [email protected] (02) 6272 4548

Media [email protected] (02) 6272 3232

Publication inquiries [email protected] (02) 6272 2010





agriculture.gov.au/abares

Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES)

Postal address GPO Box 858 Canberra ACT 2601

Switchboard +61 2 6272 3933

Facsimile +61 2 6272 2001

Email [email protected]

Web agriculture.gov.au/abares

Also in this series• Agricultural commodities, September 2012• Agricultural commodities, December 2012• Agricultural commodities, March 2013• Agricultural commodities, June 2013• Agricultural commodities, September 2013

The ‘Biosphere’ Graphic ElementThe biosphere is a key part of the department’s visual identity. Individual biospheres are used to visually describe the diverse nature of the work we do as a department, in Australia and internationally.

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Documents

Australian Natural Resources Data Librarydata.daff.gov.au/data/warehouse/agcomd9abcc004/agcomd9abcc20… · ABARES Agricultural commodities – vol 4 no 4 December quarter 2014 Contents