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Mawson (1954) Davis (1957)
Casey (1969)
Photos by Christopher Wilkins (AAD)
Macquarie Is. (1948)
Australian Considerations for the Year of Polar Prediction 2017-2018
Observations Surface
Observations upper air (GUAN)
Ozonesonde released at Davis (Photo: M. Crowe)
370 stations
N of 40N
26 stations
S of 40S
VHF Windprofiler on GTSA319 equipped with AMDAR
ObservationsSatellite
ATOVS, IASI & CrIS sounders
Davis x-Band
Online weather geostationary images
(FY2D, MTSAT and GOES-15)
Casey X-Band
YOPP
Currently planned or underway
R&D division is involved in PPP related projects such as:
• the Southern Ocean Clouds, Radiation, aerosol transport Experimental (SOCRATES),
• the Macquarie Island Cloud and radiation Experiment (MICRE), ARM instruments; and
• the Antarctic Cloud and Radiation Experiment (ACRE – ARM instruments: planned at Davis)
Currently underway
• Evaluation of how weather services support government objectives in Antarctica via risk matrix (Societal and Economic Research Applications (SERA) aspect of the YOPP) with WMO EC-PHORS;
• Phil Reid (member of the PPP steering committee) and is supervising two projects on:
− ACCESS S sea ice evaluation (Laura Davies post-doc); and
− Assessment/verification of ACCESS G in high latitudes with consideration for improved polar physics (Ben Schroeter, PhD)
Under consideration
• Improve the Macca and Davis upper air programs from GUAN to GRUAN (ie reference site );
• Install C&V sensors at all 4 stations (Vaisala CL31 or CL51 ceilometers (saving raw, vertically resolved backscatter ratio profiles for cloud-detection analysis, look at aerosols and the structure of clouds)
• Measure up and downwelling radiation at Davis to Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) standards ;
• Evaluate forecast performance at the stations and Wilkins Aerodrome;
Under Consideration
• extra sonde deployments, say up to 4/day, during the intensive measurement campaigns (need to plan now for budget staffing and consumubles, ozonesondes?); and
• radiosonde campaigns from the RSV Aurora Australis and/or the RV Investigator during the intensive measurement campaigns (is this covered by MARCUS)?.
• Ozonesondes.
A couple of tings to say about the:
Global Integrated Polar Prediction System (GIPPS)
12
Taken from: Thomas JungAlfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research25 February 2014
Global Integrated Polar Prediction System• Global: International effort and poles have
global influences• Integrated: Interconnection between systems
(weather, climate, biological chemical etc) andintegrated (research, observations andservices)
• Polar prediction will be central Three time scales
• Short-term prediction (hours to seasonal)• Medium-term predictability (seasonal to
decadal)• Long-term projection of ice mass balance and
sea level (centuries)
GIPPS
Improved understand of key processes that drivepolar weather and climate
Improved models Improved data assimilation systems Optimized observing system Improved services (e.g. shipping and long-term
planning)
Benefits
Thank you
Talk outline
R&D division is involved in PPP related projects such as:
• the Southern Ocean Clouds, Radiation, aerosol transport Experimental (SOCRATES), • the Macquarie Island Cloud and radiation Experiment (MICRE); and • the Antarctic Cloud and Radiation Experiment (ACRE – planned at Davis).
Scott Carpentier is planning to contribute to the Societal and Economic Research Applications (SERA) aspect of
the YOPP.
Phil Reid is a member of the PPP steering committee and is supervising two projects on:
• ACCESS S sea ice evaluation (Laura Davies); and • Assessment/verification of ACCESS G in high latitudes with consideration for improved polar
physics (Ben Schroeter)
we consider undertaking some permanent improvements to our Antarctic obs program and align their installation with PPP timelines, such as:
Improve the Macca and Davis upper air programs from GUAN to GRUAN (ie reference site – see attached email);
Install C&V sensors at all 4 stations (improves aviation ops (soon to be recommended by the Met Authority audit of Antarctic aviation services), aligned with OSS reduces
as well as temporarily:
commit extra sonde deployments, say up to 4/day, during the intensive measurement campaigns (could be for a 2 month period but has yet to firmed up); and
consider radiosonde campaigns from the RSV Aurora Australis and/or the RV Investigator during the intensive measurement campaigns.
Contributions from Ozone air
WMO GIPPS
The reasons for engaging
Ceilometers. The most useful data for us would be if the raw, vertically resolved backscatter ratio profiles could be saved. We would then perform our own cloud-detection analysis and also could look at aerosols and the structure of the clouds, based on the backscatter profiles.
Radiometers: it could be appropriate for Macquarie and or e.g. Davis to become a GRUAN site one day? Having the range of ozonesonde launches, radiometers, ceilometer as well as the standard radiosondes would all be beneficial .
YOPP
By YOPP –An aspiration for ongoing Observations?
1. Global Cryosphere Watch (GCW), 2. Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN), 3. Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS). 4. Global Upper Air Network (GUAN) and reference (GRUAN), 5. Global Climate Observing Network (GCOS); and 6. Polar Prediction Project (PPP): ACCESS-P7. Satellite soundings into GTS (IASI, CRIS and ATOVS)8. Sea Ice charting capabilities?
Planned Observations – on site projects
Antarctic Clouds and Radiation Experiment (ACRE) :
• one year of continuous cloud, aerosol, and precipitation measurements at Macquarie Island (March 2016-March 2017) and at Davis station (2018). (BoM 95GHzCloud radar, AAD cloud and aerosol backscatter lidar and Uni of Canterbury ceilometer)
Macquarie Island Clouds and Radiation Experiment (MICRE)
• deploy a suite of cloud, aerosol, precipitation, and radiation in-situ measurements for two years at Macquarie Island (March 2016-March 2018). (US DOE ARM, BoM and AAD) )
Modelling
• Seasonal Ice prediction (POAMA –about to be rebranded) and SIPN south
• NWP modelling ACCESS-Polar
Research into use and value of forecasts
• How do we do value the forecast?
• Forecast validation?
• Valuing the present international investment/return on investment could help develop a more sustainable model for Antarctic weather service delivery (less multiplication of effort through more cooperation.
Instrument Relevant datasets Remarks
Kipp & Zonen CMP21 Pyranometer (unshaded)
Downwelling shortwave (0.3 –3.0μm)
Global hemispheric irradiance
Kipp & Zonen CMP21 Pyranometer (shaded)
Diffuse shortwave (0.3 – 3.0μm) Diffuse hemispheric irradiance
Kipp & Zonen CHP1 Pyrheliometer
Direct normal shortwave (0.3 –3.0μm)
Solar tracking, direct normal irradiance
Kipp & Zonen CGR4 Pyrgeometer (shaded)
Downwelling longwave (4.0 -50μm)
Hemispheric irradiance
Kipp & Zonen CMP21 Pyranometer (shaded)
Upwelling shortwave (0.3 – 3.0μm) Shortwave hemispheric irradiance
Kipp & Zonen CGR4 Pyrgeometer (shaded)
Upwelling longwave (4.0 - 50μm) Longwave hemispheric irradiance
Community engagement
Alignment with other planned activities
Development and implementation plan
Development and implementation plan
Fundraising and resource mobilisation
Intensive observing periods and satellite snapshot
Research into use and value of forecasts
Model developments and operational implementation
ObservationsSatellite
Davis L-Band
Online weather geostationary images
(FY2D, MTSAT and GOES-15)
Casey L/X-Band
