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Australia - Living laboratory for Transactive Energy? CSIRO Energy Flagship
Mark Paterson
ADD BUSINESS UNIT/FLAGSHIP NAME ENERGY FLAGSHIP
An unprecedented transformation...
“The world’s electricity network will change more in the next 20-years
than it has in the last 100”
IBM Energy & Utilities, ‘Smart Infrastructure – Building the Intelligent Grid of Tomorrow’, Enercom Conference (March 2009).
Australia - Living Laboratory for Transactive Energy?
Australia’s Future Grid Forum Industry-led
Whole-of-system
Long-term orientation to 2050
Australia - Living Laboratory for Transactive Energy?
Australia - Living Laboratory for Transactive Energy?
Residential HVAC transitions from a luxury to a commodity product in late 1990’s
Issues that motivated the sector to participate
Issues that motivated the sector to participate
Natural grid renewal cycles ‘collide’ with rapid growth in peak demand have been the largest source to drive up transport cost
Australia - Living Laboratory for Transactive Energy?
Issues that motivated the sector to participate
For the first time in Australian history electricity consumption has decoupled from economic growth and is in decline
Australia - Living Laboratory for Transactive Energy?
Issues that motivated the sector to participate
Solar panel uptake has been rapid In Dec 2013, the Clean Energy Regulator published its small-scale installation data of a rated output of 3,031MW from small generation units installed in Australia Australia is approaching a total of two million small-scale renewable energy installations
Australia - Living Laboratory for Transactive Energy?
Issues that motivated the sector to participate
Retail electricity prices have risen sharply after long decline/plateau
Australia - Living Laboratory for Transactive Energy?
Social Licence
Enabling Technology
Regulation Economics
New
Business Models
Electricity Ecosystem
Australia - Living Laboratory for Transactive Energy?
Participants
Australia - Living Laboratory for Transactive Energy?
Generators
TNSPs
DNSPs
Government & Regulators
Energy Retailers
End-users, NGOs & Others
Suppliers / Business
ACOSS AMIRA CEC CEFC EEC Grattan Institute Smart Grid Aust The Climate Institute Total Environment Ctr University of Sydney
Stanwell Corporation Hydro Tasmania ESAA
GE Alstom AmpControl Ernst & Young Landis+Gyr Siemens Stockland
DRET AER
AEMC AEMO
ARENA BREE
State Govt: Qld, SA & Vic Aust Local Govt Assoc
Grid Australia: Electranet SP Ausnet Powerlink Transend Transgrid Western Power
Ausgrid Aurora Energy Citipower Energex Ergon Energy SA Power Ntwks Western Power
ERAA AGL Origin Energy
Four 2050 scenarios
Australia - Living Laboratory for Transactive Energy?
Set and forget Leaving the grid
Rise of the ‘Prosumer’ Renewables thrive
Scenario 1: Set and forget
• Closest to a linear path of evolution from the present
• Generation:
o 19% from distributed sources (gross)
o 30% from renewable sources (gross)
• Modest uptake of DS and EVs
• Dependant upon near-ubiquitous ‘set and forget’ energy service and DM solutions offered by incumbent networks
Australia - Living Laboratory for Transactive Energy?
Scenario 2: Rise of the prosumer
• Extensive transition to distributed energy networks
• Generation:
o 46% from distributed sources (gross)
o 41% from renewable sources (gross)
• Modest uptake of energy storage and electric vehicles
• Majority see value proposition of remaining grid-connected and networks now ‘transact’ electrons between thousands of sites
Australia - Living Laboratory for Transactive Energy?
Scenario 3: Leaving the grid
• Extensive transition toward user autonomy underpinned by distributed generation and storage
• Generation:
o 31% from distributed sources (gross)
o 64% from renewable sources (gross)
• ~30% are not convinced of grid value proposition and have entirely disconnected by 2050
Australia - Living Laboratory for Transactive Energy?
Scenario 4: Renewables thrive
• Extensive transition to centralised renewables
• Generation:
o 26% from distributed sources (gross)
o 86% from renewable sources (gross)
• System is supported by :
o Extensive deployment of grid-side storage
o Extensive uptake of electric vehicles
o Modest uptake of DG and DS
Australia - Living Laboratory for Transactive Energy?
There is no scenario which is best for all
Australia - Living Laboratory for Transactive Energy?
Each scenario presents vast change for some actor within the system However, we could generalise to say Scenario 3 would be represent the most change, Scenario 1 the least
Stakeholder Scenario 1: ‘Set and forget'
Scenario 2: ‘Rise of the prosumer’
Scenario 3: ‘Leaving the grid’
Scenario 4: ‘Renewables on tap’
Residential consumer
Commercial or industrial customer
Retailer
Distribution
Transmission
Generation and transmission system operators
Energy service companies
Metering services
Centralised generator – coal
Centralised generator – gas
Centralised generator – renewable
On-site generators
Storage technology providers
Electric vehicle providers
Information and communication technology
Seven observations about this transition...
1. Network-centric → Customer-centric
2. Centralised → Decentralised/Hybrid (esp. remote rural)
3. Fossil fuel generation → Continuous decarbonisation
4. Regulated natural monopoly → Increasing exposure to competition
5. 20 – 50% of electricity generated locally by 2050
6. Grid continues to play a critical (but evolved) role in 2050
7. Social justice issues now arising with ‘cross-subsidies’ from lower to higher income households
Australia - Living Laboratory for Transactive Energy?
Asking the right question in an increasingly distributed energy future
“Who is going to pay for this Transactive Energy system?”
“Who is going to pay if our electricity
systems are not transactive?”
Australia - Living Laboratory for Transactive Energy?
CSIRO Energy Transformed Flagship Mark Paterson Energy Flagship t 0459 841 006 e [email protected] w www.csiro.au/energy
ENERGY TRANSFORMED FLAGSHIP
Thank you