Aurora Public School District 2017-18 Planning Update ......2012-13 2013-14 2014-15* 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 Projected Non-APS Facilities Preschool Other Interdistrict Choice CSI P-12

Anthony Sturges; Chief Operating Officer

Joshua Hensley; Planning Coordinator

Aurora Public School District 2017-18 Planning Update: Blueprint

APS Intro Discussion

Division of Support Services October 10, 2017

Every Student Shapes a Successful Future

Presentation Purpose Why is this topic on the board agenda?

Provide an overview of recent population, housing and enrollment trends in the APS community.

Provide preliminary enrollment projections through 2021-2022

What are we asking the board to do with this information? Review and understand this information that will inform a framework to

respond to current and future needs

How is this linked to the Strategic Plan, Vision, Mission, Goals & Core Beliefs? All students must have equitable access to learning opportunities,

technology, and environments that support them in reaching their full potential

A district with students at its center provides an adaptable and responsible foundation for learning

Community partnerships provide vital resources and opportunities for students and families

Students, families, staff, and community members share the responsibility for student achievement

Planning Update Overview:

-Population -Enrollment -Projections -Capacity



Source: US Census 2010; American Community Survey (ACS) 2016 1 Year Estimates

Sources: Metro: Colorado Department of Local Affairs

https://demography.dola.colorado.gov/ APS: Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment

• The Denver Metro Area grew by 277,805 people between 2010 and 2015

• Between 2010 and 2016 APS grew by 18,268 people

• In 2010, 60% of the metro area population increase came

from natural growth, in 2016 only 33% of the population increase came from natural growth

• Between 2010 and 2015 the average annual birth rate in the

Denver Metro Area and APS was 7% lower than the period between 2005 and 2010

Population

APS Population by Age Estimates (2010 to 2016)

Source: US Census 2010 & ACS 2016 1 Year Estimates -https://factfinder.census.gov/


0-5 and 6-17 based on estimates of population in households; all other age groups based on total population estimates

22,289

35,947

55,807

29,163

45,771

17,453 20,798

39,728

61,350

34,401

49,783

21,952

-7%

11% 10%

18%

9%

26%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

0-5 6-17 18-34 35-44 45-64 65+2010 2016 % Change


Enrollment

*Preschool enrollment includes Non-APS Facility students

District P-12 Enrollment Breakdown by Type (2010-11 to 2017-18 IC: 9/28/2017)


School Year 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 IC: 9/28/17

Oct. Count 38,847 39,903 40,035 41,161 42,065 42,569 42,111 41,250

District P-12 Change

1,614 1,056 132 1,126 904 504 -458 -861 4.33% 2.72% 0.33% 2.81% 2.20% 1.20% -1.08% -2.04%

2010 to 2014 Total Change: 3,218

2010 to 2014 Average Annual Percent Change: 2.01%

2014 to 2017 Total Change: -815

2014 to 2017 Average Annual Percent Change: -0.64%

School Year 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 IC: 9/28/17

Oct. Count 31,588 32,151 32,887 33,956 34,604 34,534 33,864 32,370

Traditional K-12 Change

589 563 736 1,069 648 -70 -670 -1,494 1.90% 1.78% 2.29% 3.25 1.91% -0.20% -1.94% -4.41%

2010 to 2014 Total Change: 3,016

2010 to 2014 Average Annual Percent Change: 2.31%

2014 to 2017 Total Change: -2,234

2014 to 2017 Average Annual Percent Change: -2.18%

Traditional K-12 Enrollment Breakdown by Type (2010-11 to 2017-18 IC: 9/28/2017)

-2.50%

-2.00%

-1.50%

-1.00%

-0.50%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

3.50%

4.00%

4.50%

5.00%

IC:

9/2

8/2

017

201

5

201

3

201

1

200

9

200

7

200

5

200

3

200

1

199

9

199

7

199

5

199

3

199

1

198

9

198

7

198

5

198

3

198

1

197

9

197

7

197

5

197

3

197

1

*Enrollment includes : traditional, charter, and program students

APS K-12 Enrollment Percent Change (1970 to 2017 IC: 9/28/2017)

20

16


2010 to 2014 Change: 1,204 2014 to 2017 Change: -944

2010 to 2014 Change: 1,966 2014 to 2017 Change: 127

2010 to 2014 Change: 525 2014 to 2017 Change: -445

2010 to 2014 Change: 184 2014 to 2017 Change: -100

*Rent and vacancy data averaged together for Adams and Arapahoe county, and selected APS submarkets. Data for all apartment types. Source: "Denver Metro Area Apartment Vacancy and Rent Survey, Third Quarter 2016" published by Apartment Association Metro Denver

Source: US Census 2010; American Community Survey (ACS) 2016 1 Year Estimates


Source: Zillow Research- http://www.zillow.com/research/data/

Factors Impacting Recent Enrollment Trends 1) Lower birth rates have led to smaller class sizes in primary grades

-Decline in class sizes as cohorts progress to the next grade

2) Increasing housing costs continue to pressure families in the community

-Between 2012 and 2016 the median sale price of homes in Aurora increased from $165,000 to $267,900

-Between 2012 and 2016 the average rent in APS increased from $854.00 to $1,185.00

3) More public education choices available for APS families: charter schools, other school districts, online academies, etc.

-The percentage of students attending APS traditional schools has declined about 6% since 2012-13

80.9% 81.2% 80.1% 78.9% 77.3% 74.7%

8.6% 8.5% 8.4% 8.9% 9.3% 11.0%

2.3% 2.6% 2.5% 2.6% 3.2% 3.2% 2.2%

2.3% 2.4% 2.3% 2.5% 2.5%

0.6% 0.5%

1.5% 1.7% 1.8% 2.5% 4.9% 4.3% 4.4% 4.8% 5.2% 5.3%

0.4% 0.6%

0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

2012-13 2013-14 2014-15* 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 ProjectedNon-APS Facilities Preschool Other Interdistrict Choice CSIP-12 Private and Home Based Education Multi-District Blended Learning Estimate Charter P-12APS P-12

1,112

APS Community School Enrollment Trends (2012-13 to 2017-18 )

44,497

48,090 47,166 48,279 45,609

Source: APS analysis of CDE data- Colorado Department of Education: http://www.cde.state.co.us/cdereval/pupilcurrent *Added 700 to inter dist. Choice to account for CDE error

1,557 924 189 -561

# = Annual Change

47,718


• Based on factors influencing current enrollment trends such as smaller class cohorts in primary grades, housing affordability, inter-district open enrollment and the pace of new residential development; APS may continue to experience enrollment declines over the next few years

• It is possible enrollment will stabilize and eventually begin increasing again within the next five years, primarily as a result of new housing growth along the E-470 corridor

Preliminary Enrollment Projections

32,887 33,956 34,604 34,534 33,864 32,370 31,069 30,208 29,688 29,441 29,350

1,648 1,340 1,468 1,617 1,618

1,675 1,675 1,675 1,675 1,675 1,675

3,820 3,839 3,937 4,278 4,399 5,027

5,326 5,670 5,946 6,203 6,485

1,680 2,026 2,056 2,140 2,230 2,178

2,178 2,178 2,178 2,178 2,178

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017:9/28/17

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Pre-K Enrollment Charter Enrollment Program Enrollment Traditional Enrollment


Actual and Preliminary Projected APS P-12 Enrollment by Type (2012-13 to 2021-22)

9/29/2017 Draft

40,035 41,161 42,065 42,569 42,111 41,250

40,248 39,731 39,487 39,497 39,688

Northwest: Enrollment may continue to decline, with redevelopment in Original Aurora

Northeast: Enrollment is likely to continue growing from ongoing residential development along E-470

Southwest: Enrollment is likely to continue declining in the short-term, with possible growth in the future as more families may be attracted back to the area

Southeast: Enrollment may stabilize, with possible growth in the near future from new residential development along E-470

Capacity



Discussion

Implications and Next Steps

Documents

Aurora Public School District 2017-18 Planning Update ......2012-13 2013-14 2014-15* 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 Projected Non-APS Facilities Preschool Other Interdistrict Choice CSI P-12