AUGUST 2014

KCM Divided intoThree Sections

+=

The Question of the Day…

Put Them Out of Work

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

NAR 2014

found their HOMEon the Internet

Percentage of Buyers who…

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

NAR 2014

Percentage of Buyers who…

used an AGENT

“The industry is becoming more transparent in an effort to help

homebuyers become informed about changes that may affect their process.

The sheer amount of information can lead to confusion and stress.”

Cameron FindlayChief Economist at Discover Home Loans

Inundated with Information

65%76%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

All Respondents Those Under the Age of 30

% that feels overwhelmed by the amount of information available on home financing

Discover Financial 2014

“Access to all this information isn’t always a positive force. Sometimes, it can stall a buyer or make them question whether or not they want to be a buyer.”

- Fox Business News

75%

88%

83%

88%

75%

80%

85%

90%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Buyers Sellers

% of Buyers & Sellers who used an Agent

NAR 2014

Be their ‘Expert’This is a person to whom people will turn for advice on difficult or complex real estate decisions.

Altos Research 7/2014

Altos “Bullish” on the Real Estate Market

“The real-time data paints a much more robust environment than the

headlines would indicate.Demand remains high, transactions

happen very quickly. Home prices are up another

9% year over last year.

We’ve had a strong run and the American consumer is anxious to again buy real estate.”

“Demographics should be more of a positive catalyst. More of those younger adults who have been living at home should find jobs and these 25–35-year-olds should provide some incremental elevation to the rental and starter home markets.”

Fitch expects accelerated upturn in housing

HousingWire 7/2014

MILLENNIALS

32%

21%

6% 7%5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Ages 18-34 Ages 35-44 Ages 45-54 Ages 55-64 Ages 65+

BMO Harris Bank 6/2014

% of Each Age Groupplanning to buy a home

in the next 12 months?

BMO Harris Bank 6/2014

74%

62%

35%31%

19%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Ages 18-34 Ages 35-44 Ages 45-54 Ages 55-64 Ages 65+

% of Each Age Groupplanning to buy a home

in the next 5 years?

33.6% 35.0%38.8% 40.5%

34.3%

0.0%

15.0%

30.0%

45.0%

Ages 45-49 Ages 40-44 Ages 35-39 Ages 30-34 Ages 25-29

Homeownership Rates by Age Group when they were 25-29 Years Old

Ages reported are ages in 2012 John Burns Consulting 2014

“From 2012 to 2013, population growth for Millennials was highest outside big cities.

The differences aren’t huge, but there’s clearly no

mad rush to the cities.”

Jed KolkoTrulia

6.00 $ 600 $ 585 $ 570 $ 555 $ 540

5.75 $ 584 $ 569 $ 554 $ 540 $ 525

5.50 $ 568 $ 554 $ 539 $ 525 $ 511

5.25 $ 552 $ 538 $ 525 $ 510 $ 497

5.00 $ 537 $ 523 $ 510 $ 497 $ 483

4.75 $ 522 $ 509 $ 496 $ 482 $ 469

4.50 $ 507 $ 495 $ 481 $ 467 $ 456

$ 100,000 $ 97,500 $ 95,000 $ 92,500 $ 90,000 -2.5% -5% -7.5% -10%

Buyer’s Purchasing PowerR

ATE

Principal and Interest Payments rounded to the nearest dollar amount.

6.00 $ 1,199 $ 1,169 $ 1,139 $ 1,109 $ 1,079

5.75 $ 1,167 $ 1,138 $ 1,109 $ 1,080 $ 1,050

5.50 $ 1,136 $ 1,107 $ 1,079 $ 1,050 $ 1,022

5.25 $ 1,104 $ 1,077 $ 1,049 $ 1,022 $ 994

5.00 $ 1,074 $ 1,047 $ 1,020 $ 993 $ 966

4.75 $ 1,043 $ 1,017 $ 991 $ 965 $ 939

4.50 $ 1,013 $ 988 $ 963 $ 937 $ 912

$ 200,000 $ 195,000 $ 190,000 $ 185,000 $ 180,000 -2.5% -5% -7.5% -10%

Buyer’s Purchasing PowerR

ATE

Principal and Interest Payments rounded to the nearest dollar amount.

6.00 $ 2,398 $ 2,338 $ 2,278 $ 2,218 $ 2,158

5.75 $ 2,334 $ 2,276 $ 2,218 $ 2,160 $ 2,100

5.50 $ 2,272 $ 2,214 $ 2,158 $ 2,100 $ 2,044

5.25 $ 2,208 $ 2,154 $ 2,098 $ 2,044 $ 1,988

5.00 $ 2,148 $ 2,094 $ 2,040 $ 1,986 $ 1,932

4.75 $ 2,086 $ 2,034 $ 1,982 $ 1,930 $ 1,878

4.50 $ 2,026 $ 1,976 $ 1,926 $ 1,874 $ 1,824

$ 400,000 $ 390,000 $ 380,000 $ 370,000 $ 360,000 -2.5% -5% -7.5% -10%

RAT

E

Principal and Interest Payments rounded to the nearest dollar amount.

Buyer’s Purchasing Power

6.00 $ 3,597 $ 3,507 $ 3,417 $ 3,328 $ 3,237

5.75 $ 3,501 $ 3,414 $ 3,326 $ 3,239 $ 3,151

5.50 $ 3,407 $ 3,322 $ 3,236 $ 3,151 $ 3,066

5.25 $ 3,313 $ 3,230 $ 3,148 $ 3,065 $ 2,982

5.00 $ 3,221 $ 3,140 $ 3,060 $ 2,979 $ 2,899

4.75 $ 3,130 $ 3,052 $ 2,973 $ 2,895 $ 2,817

4.50 $ 3,040 $ 2,964 $ 2,888 $ 2,812 $ 2,736

$ 600,000 $ 585,000 $ 570,000 $ 555,000 $ 540,000 -2.5% -5% -7.5% -10%

RAT

E

Principal and Interest Payments rounded to the nearest dollar amount.

Buyer’s Purchasing Power

6.00 $ 4,796 $ 4,676 $ 4,557 $ 4,437 $ 4,317

5.75 $ 4,669 $ 4,552 $ 4,435 $ 4,318 $ 4,201

5.50 $ 4,542 $ 4,429 $ 4,315 $ 4,202 $ 4,088

5.25 $ 4,418 $ 4,307 $ 4,197 $ 4,086 $ 3,976

5.00 $ 4,295 $ 4,187 $ 4,080 $ 3,972 $ 3,865

4.75 $ 4,173 $ 4,069 $ 3,965 $ 3,860 $ 3,756

4.50 $ 4,053 $ 3,952 $ 3,851 $ 3,749 $ 3,648

$ 800,000 $ 780,000 $ 760,000 $ 740,000 $ 720,000 -2.5% -5% -7.5% -10%

RAT

E

Principal and Interest Payments rounded to the nearest dollar amount.

Buyer’s Purchasing Power

6.00 $ 5,996 $ 5,846 $ 5,696 $ 5,546 $ 5,396

5.75 $ 5,836 $ 5,690 $ 5,544 $ 5,398 $ 5,252

5.50 $ 5,678 $ 5,536 $ 5,394 $ 5,252 $ 5,110

5.25 $ 5,522 $ 5,384 $ 5,246 $ 5,108 $ 4,970

5.00 $ 5,368 $ 5,234 $ 5,100 $ 4,966 $ 4,831

4.75 $ 5,216 $ 5,086 $ 4,956 $ 4,825 $ 4,695

4.50 $ 5,067 $ 4,940 $ 4,814 $ 4,687 $ 4,560

$ 1,000,000 $ 975,000 $ 950,000 $ 925,000 $ 900,000 -2.5% -5% -7.5% -10%

RAT

E

Principal and Interest Payments rounded to the nearest dollar amount.

Buyer’s Purchasing Power

PRICES

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

S&P Case Shiller 7/2014

Year-Over-Year

PRICECHANGES

CaseShiller

S&P Case Shiller 7/2014

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014App/Dep 4.2% 4.5% 3.6% 7.4% 7.1% 1.9% -1.6% -8.9% -7.0% 0.4% -1.8% 1.9% 6.8% 3.0%

Annual Home Price Gains

Wall Street Journal

1.9%

6.8%

3.0%

2012 2013 2014 YTD

Annual Home Price Gains

Wall Street Journal

4.6

4.95.0

5.2

5.75.5 5.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE

NAR 7/2014

RATE LockoutReports reveal that 19% of current homeowners either purchased or refinanced homes between 2011 and 2013 -- when rates were historically low.

CNN Money 2014

19%

“Watch out for the lock-in effect on new rates. People

don't want to give up their 3.5 percent mortgage rates unless

they really need to move.”

Lawrence YunChief Economist of NAR

3.25

3.5

3.75

4

4.25

4.5

4.75

Freddie Mac 8/2014

Freddie Mac Actual Rates

January 2013 – July 2014

30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgages

EXISTING Home Sales

NAR 7/2014

-8.6%

2.3%

7.2%

4.0%

6.8%

8.5%

-9.0%

-6.0%

-3.0%

0.0%

3.0%

6.0%

9.0%

$0-100K $100-250K $250-500K $500-750K $750K-1M $1M+% Sales +/- -8.6% 2.3% 7.2% 4.0% 6.8% 8.5%

% Change in Sales from last year

by Price Range

NAR 7/22/2014

90

95

100

105

110

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

100 = Historically Healthy Level

PENDING Home Sales

NAR 7/2014

50.6 51.2 50 50.647.8

27.7

19.3

26.2

43.946.1

44.542.5

0

10

20

30

40

50

July 2013 August2013

Septembet2013

October2013

November2013

December2013

January2014

February2014

March2014

April 2014 May 2014 June 2014

reator.org

Foot Traffic (indicator of future sales)

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE

NAR 7/2014

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE

NAR 7/2014

-24%

-20.8%

-16.8%

-14%-13%

-7.6%

-5%-6.2%

1.8% 0.9%

5%

1.6%

7.3%

5.3%

3.2%

6.5% 6% 5.5%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun% -24% -20.8 -16.8 -14% -13% -7.6% -5% -6.2% 1.8% 0.9% 5.0% 1.6% 7.3% 5.3% 3.2% 6.5% 6% 5.50%

Year-over-Year Inventory Levels

NAR 7/2014

RETURN ON INVESTMENTJanuary 2000 – August 2014

Yahoo & Case Shiller

Foreclosures by Stateas a percentage of all homes with a mortgage

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Percentage of Distressed Property

Sales

35%

11%

15%

NAR 7/2014

Resources

KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM

Slide Slide Title Link

7, 8, 15

% of Buyers Who: Found Home on Internet, Used an Agent, Buyers & Seller who used Agents

http://www.realtor.org/reports/highlights-from-the-2013-profile-of-home-buyers-and-sellers

11,12 Cameron Findlay Quote, Inundated with Information http://investorrelations.discoverfinancial.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=204177&p=RssLanding&cat=news&id=1949658

14 Fox Business News Quote http://www.foxbusiness.com/personal-finance/2014/07/18/5-tips-for-millennial-home-buyer/

20 Altos Research Quote http://blog.altosresearch.com/the-2015-housing-market-forecast/

21 Fitch Quote http://www.housingwire.com/articles/30745-fitch-housing-market-getting-ready-to-grow

23, 24% of Age Groups Planning in 12 months, % of Age Groups Planning in 5 years

http://www.marketwired.com/press-release/majority-millennials-plan-purchase-home-next-five-years-bmo-harris-bank-study-1921714.htm

25 Housing Wire Article http://www.housingwire.com/blogs/1-rewired/post/30775-hey-cnbc-shut-up-about-millennials-already

26 Homeownership Rates http://www.realestateconsulting.com/blog/chris-porter/subprime-generation

27 Jed Kolko Quote http://www.trulia.com/trends/category/baby-boomers/

35, 36 S&P Case Shiller https://www.spice-indices.com/idpfiles/spice-assets/resources/public/documents/103542_cshomeprice-release-0729.pdf

37, 38 Annual Home Price Gains https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BttrHkxCcAEREHB.jpg

Resources

KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM

Slide Slide Title Link

39, 42, 45-47, 49-51

Months Inventory, Lawrence Yun Quote, Existing Home Sales, By Price, Pending Home Sales, Months Inventory, Year-Over-Year

http://www.realtor.org/

40 Calculated Risk Chart http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2014/07/weekly-update-housing-tracker-existing.html

41 Rate Lockout http://money.cnn.com/2014/06/17/real_estate/homeowner-landlords/

44 30-Year Fixed Rate http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

48 Foot Traffic https://magic.piktochart.com/output/2318478-foot-traffic-june-2014

52 Return on Investment http://us.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shillerhttp://finance.yahoo.com/

53 Foreclosures By State http://www.corelogic.com/research/foreclosure-report/national-foreclosure-report-june-2014.pdf

54 % of Distressed Homes http://www.realtor.org/

58 Marc Davidson Quote http://1000watt.net/2014/07/zillow-trulia-and-you/

68 Millennials and Student Debt: We Knew They Were Wrong! http://www.keepingcurrentmatters.com/2014/06/30/millennials-and-student-debt-we-knew-they-were-wrong/

"Focus on brand marketing, content marketing and other more intelligent means of engaging

homebuyers and sellers."

Marc DavisonCo-Founder 1000WATT Consulting

Tamara Inzunza

http://www.keepingcurrentmatters.com/2014/06/30/millennials-and-student-debt-we-knew-they-were-wrong/

Natalie Southwick, Owner/Broker

Natalie Southwick, Owner/Brokercell: (801) 558 0364www.aspencreekrealty.com

“We use your resources on a weekly basis for our blog and Facebook.

Utah Business Magazine contacted Aspen Creek Realty about doing an

interview concerning Millennials.

We come up as the #1 search in Google for ‘Utah Real Estate Millennials’.

We love your information and all that you provide.

Jennifer Horner will be interviewed today for Utah Business Magazine.”

Jennifer HornerBuyer Specialist

Cell: 801.884.2314www.aspencreekrealty.com

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/GROUPS/KCMMEMBERS