Aug. 1 Quinnipiac University swing poll

7/31/2019 Aug. 1 Quinnipiac University swing poll

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FOR RELEASE: AUGUST 1, 2012

OBAMA HITS 50% IN FLORIDA, OHIO, PENNSYLVANIA,

QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY/CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES

SWING STATE POLL FINDS---

FLORIDA: Obama 51Romney 45

OHIO: Obama 50Romney 44

PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 53Romney 42

President Barack Obama hits the magic 50 percent mark against Gov. Mitt Romney among likely

voters in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, with wide support for his plan to hike federal income

taxes on upper-income voters, according to a Quinnipiac University/ CBS News/New York

Times Swing State Poll released today.

This is the first measure of likely voters in these swing states and cannot be compared

with earlier surveys of registered voters. Matching Obama against Romney in each of these key

statesno one has won the White House since 1960 without taking at least two of themshows:

Florida: Obama edges Romney 5145 percent; Ohio: Obama over Romney by a slim 5044 percent; Pennsylvania: Obama tops Romney 5342 percent.

Support for President Obamas proposal to increase taxes on households making more

than $250,000 per year is 5837 percent in Florida, 6037 percent in Ohio and 6234 percent

in Pennsylvania, the survey by Quinnipiac/CBS/The Times finds.

If today were November 6, President Barack Obama would sweep the key swing states

of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania andif history is any guideinto a second term in the Oval

Office, said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

The president is running better in the key swing states than he is nationally. Part of the reason

may be that the unemployment rate in Ohio is well below the national average. In Florida it has

been dropping over the past year, while nationally that has not been the case.

(For a downloadable video of Quinnipiac Polling Institute Assistant Director Tim Malloy

discussing the survey, click onhttp://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-

institute/presidential-swing-states-(fl-oh-and-pa)/release-detail?ReleaseID=1781)

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Peter A. Brown, Assistant Director,

Quinnipiac University Polling Institute

(203) 535-6203

Rubenstein Associates, Inc.,

Public Relations

Pat Smith (212) 843-8026
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/presidential-swing-states-(fl-oh-and-pa)/release-detail?ReleaseID=1781http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/presidential-swing-states-(fl-oh-and-pa)/release-detail?ReleaseID=1781http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/presidential-swing-states-(fl-oh-and-pa)/release-detail?ReleaseID=1781http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/presidential-swing-states-(fl-oh-and-pa)/release-detail?ReleaseID=1781http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/presidential-swing-states-(fl-oh-and-pa)/release-detail?ReleaseID=1781http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/presidential-swing-states-(fl-oh-and-pa)/release-detail?ReleaseID=1781


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Quinnipiac/CBS/The Times Poll/August 1, 2012 page 2

All this matters because half of all likely voters say the economy is the most important

issue to their vote, far ahead of any other issue. The saving grace for Gov. Mitt Romney is that

he roughly breaks even with the president on who is best on the economy, Brown added.

The president's strength among women is the dominant dynamic fueling his lead. It is

this dynamic that argues for Romney to pick a female running mate. On the other hand, thepresident's lead in Ohio and Florida also argues for the selection by Romney of Sen. Rob

Portman or Sen. Marco Rubio since he can't win the White House without the Buckeye and

Sunshine states and presumably these home state senators would be the most helpful.

Among voters who pick Romney, 10 percent each in Florida and Ohio and 9 percent in

Pennsylvania say they might change their mind. Among Obama supporters, 11 percent in

Florida, 13 percent in Ohio and 15 percent in Pennsylvania say they might change their mind.

Florida

Obama leads 5144 percent among women likely voters in Florida while men go 50

percent for the Democrat and 46 percent for the Republican.

Both candidates run strong among their own partys voters while independent voters split

with 47 percent for Obama and 46 percent for Romney.

Among likely voters backing Obama, 65 percent strongly favor him while 24 percent like

him with reservations and 10 percent say they pick Obama out of dislike for Romney.

Among Romney voters, 49 percent strongly favor him while 29 percent like him with

reservations and 19 percent say they are voting against Obama.

Obama gets a 5046 percent favorability rating, while Romney gets a split 4142

percent score.

The economy is the most important issue in the election for 52 percent of Florida voters,

with 22 percent who pick health care and 9 percent who cite the budget deficit.

Romney would do a better job on the economy, 47 percent of Florida likely voters say,

while 45 percent pick Obama. Obama is better on health care, voters say 5042 percent.

If Obama is reelected, his economic policies will hurt rather than help their financial

situation, Florida voters say 3823 percent, with 36percent saying it wont matter. Romney

gets a 3130 percent split on whether he will help or hurt, with 34 percent saying no difference.

Presidential candidates should release several years of tax returns, 53 percent of voters

say; 19 percent want to see one or two years of returns and 23 percent say dont release returns.

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Quinnipiac/CBS/The Times Poll/August 1, 2012 page 3

In Floridas U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson leads U.S. Rep.

Connie Mack, the Republican challenger 4740 percent. Independent voters go 43 percent for

Mack and 40 percent for Nelson.

Florida voters disapprove 5236 percent of the job Gov. Rick Scott is doing.

One of the few positives for Romney in Florida is that voters are split on whether hiselection would help or hurt their pocketbook, but by 3823 percent they say the presidents re-

election would leave their wallets thinner, Brown said.

Ohio

Women Ohio likely voters back Obama 5837 percent, while men back Romney

5242 percent. Independent voters go 47 percent for Obama and 44 percent for Romney.

Among Obama voters, 60 percent strongly favor him while 31 percent like him with

reservations and 9 percent say their vote is against Romney.

Among Romney voters, 42 percent strongly favor him while 35 percent like him with


Obama has a 5145 percent favorability rating. Romney gets a 40 percent favorable

rating and a 43 percent unfavorable score.

The economy is the most important issue in the election for 48 percent of Ohio voters,

with 20 percent who pick health care and 12 percent who cite the budget deficit.

Obama would do a better job on the economy, 46 percent of Ohio likely voters say, while

45 percent pick Romney. Obama is better on health care, voters say 4842 percent.

Obamas financial policies would hurt rather than help them personally, Ohio voters say

3826 percent, while 34 percent see no difference. Romney would hurt rather than help, voters

say 3726 percent, while 34 percent see no difference.


say; 18 percent want to see one or two years of returns and 28 percent say dont release returns.

In Ohios U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown leads State

Treasurer Josh Mandel, the Republican challenger 5139 percent, with a 4938 percent lead

among independent voters.

Ohio voters approve 4738 percent of the job Gov. John Kasich is doing.

This is our first likely voter survey of Gov. John Kasich, so we cant compare it to

earlier surveys of registered voters, said Brown. But the improvement in his approval rating is

so big that it must be at least in part because of the improving economy in the state.

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Quinnipiac/CBS/TheTimes Poll/August 1, 2012page 4

Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania women voters back Obama 5935 percent, while men go 50 percent for

Romney and 47 percent for Obama. Independent voters back Obama 5836 percent.

Among Obama voters, 59 percent strongly favor him while 33 percent like him with

reservations and 7 percent say their vote is against Romney.Among Romney voters, 41 percent strongly favor him while 37 percent like him with


Obama has a 5342 percent favorability rating, while Romney has a negative 3947

percent favorability rating.

The economy is the most important issue in the election for 54 percent of Pennsylvania

voters, with 20 percent who pick health care and 8 percent who cite the budget deficit.

Obama would do a better job on the economy than Romney, Pennsylvania likely voters

say 4844 percent. The president is better on health care, voters say 5141 percent.

Obamas policies would hurt rather than help them, Pennsylvania voters say 3723

percent, while 37 percent see no difference. Romney would hurt rather than help, voters say

3226 percent, while 37 percent see no difference.


say; 17 percent want to see one or two years of returns and 25percent say dont release returns.

In Pennsylvanias U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Sen. Robert Casey Jr. leads

coal mine owner Tom Smith, the Republican challenger, 5537 percent, with a 6133 percent

lead among independent voters.

Pennsylvania voters disapprove 4538 percent of the job Gov. Tom Corbett is doing.

President Barack Obama is ahead by just about every measure in the Keystone State:

Hes got a double digit lead; his voters seem more committed to him and Pennsylvanians like

him more, said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Sen. Bob Casey seems to be sailing toward reelection as his Republican coal mine

owner opponent Tom Smith fights a name recognition battle and fails to gain any traction.

From July 2430, Quinnipiac University, in cooperation with CBS News and The New

York Times, surveyed:

1,177 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent; 1,193 Ohio likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent; 1,168 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent.

Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

For individual statewide crosstabs visithttp://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2881.xmlor call

(203) 582-5201.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2881.xmlhttp://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2881.xmlhttp://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2881.xml


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1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were

Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If

undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or Romney? (Table includes leaners)

LIKELY VOTERS...

FL OH PA

Obama 51% 50% 53%

Romney 45 44 42

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1

DK/NA 4 4 4

1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your

mind before the election?

LIKELY VOTERS......

CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1

FL OH PA

Mind made up 89% 87% 87%

Might change 10 12 12

DK/NA - 1 1

1b. (If Obama q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before

the election?

LIKELY VOTERS....

OBAMA Q1.........

FL OH PA



DK/NA - 1 1

1c. (If Romney q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mindbefore the election?

LIKELY VOTERS....

ROMNEY Q1........

FL OH PA



DK/NA - 1 1

2. Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough

about him?

LIKELY VOTERS...

FL OH PA

Favorable 41% 40% 39%

Unfavorable 42 43 47

Hvn't hrd enough 14 15 11

REFUSED 3 3 3


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3. Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough

about him?

LIKELY VOTERS...

FL OH PA

Favorable 50% 51% 53%

Unfavorable 46 45 42

Hvn't hrd enough 2 2 2

REFUSED 2 2 3

4a. (If Obama q1) Would you describe your support for Barack Obama as strongly favoring

him, or do you like him but with reservations, or do you support him because you dislike

Mitt Romney?

LIKELY VOTERS....

OBAMA Q1.........

FL OH PA

Strongly favor 65% 60% 59%

Like/Reservations 24 31 33

Dislike Romney 10 9 7

DK/NA 1 1 1

4b. (If Romney q1) Would you describe your support for Mitt Romney as strongly favoring

him, or do you like him but with reservations, or do you support him because you dislike

Barack Obama?

LIKELY VOTERS....

ROMNEY Q1........

FL OH PA

Strongly favor 49% 42% 41%

Like/Reservations 29 35 37

Dislike Obama 19 22 22

DK/NA 3 1 1

5. If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates

were Bill Nelson(FL)/Sherrod Brown(OH)/Bob Casey Jr.(PA) the Democrat and

Connie Mack(FL)/Josh Mandel(OH)/Tom Smith(PA) the Republican, for whom would you vote?

(If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Nelson(FL)/Brown(OH)/Casey Jr.(PA)

or Mack(FL)/Mandel(OH)/Smith(PA)? (Table includes leaners)

LIKELY VOTERS...

FL OH PA

Democrat 47% 51% 55%

Republican 40 39 37SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 -

DK/NA 12 9 8


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6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Scott(FL)/John Kasich(OH)/Tom Corbett(PA)

is handling his job as Governor?

LIKELY VOTERS...

FL OH PA

Approve 36% 47% 38%

Disapprove 52 38 45

DK/NA 13 15 17

7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

LIKELY VOTERS...

FL OH PA

Approve 48% 48% 49%

Disapprove 48 48 46

DK/NA 4 3 4

8. In deciding who you would like to see elected President this year, which one of the

following issues will be most important to you, national security, the economy, health

care, the budget deficit, taxes, immigration, or something else?

LIKELY VOTERS...

FL OH PA

National security 3% 4% 3%

The economy 52 48 54

Health care 22 20 20

The budget deficit 9 12 8

Taxes 5 5 6

Immigration 2 2 1

Something else 5 7 7

DK/NA 2 2 2

9. Compared to past presidential elections, how would you describe your level of

enthusiasm about voting in this year's presidential election; are you more enthusiastic

than usual, less enthusiastic, or about the same as usual?

LIKELY VOTERS...

FL OH PA

More 32% 32% 29%

Less 19 21 22

About the same 49 47 49

DK/NA 1 - -

10. Do you think the nation's economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about

the same?

LIKELY VOTERS...

FL OH PA

Better 26% 26% 20%

Worse 41 39 39

The same 32 34 39

DK/NA 1 1 2


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11. Do you think (Florida/Ohio/Pennsylvania)'s economy is getting better, getting worse,

or staying about the same?

LIKELY VOTERS...

FL OH PA

Better 23% 33% 16%

Worse 32 26 32

The same 43 40 49

DK/NA 2 1 3

12. Would you say that Barack Obama cares about the needs and problems of people like you

or not?

LIKELY VOTERS...

FL OH PA

Yes 55% 55% 58%

No 42 43 39

DK/NA 3 2 3

13. Would you say that Mitt Romney cares about the needs and problems of people like youor not?

LIKELY VOTERS...

FL OH PA

Yes 42% 38% 39%

No 49 55 54

DK/NA 9 7 7

14. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on

the economy, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

LIKELY VOTERS...FL OH PA

Obama 45% 46% 48%

Romney 47 45 44

DK/NA 9 8 7

15. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on -

health care, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

LIKELY VOTERS...

FL OH PA

Obama 50% 48% 51%

Romney 42 42 41

DK/NA 8 9 8


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16. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on -

national security, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

LIKELY VOTERS...

FL OH PA

Obama 48% 50% 50%

Romney 44 41 40

DK/NA 8 9 9

17. If Barack Obama is reelected, do you think his economic policies would help your

personal financial situation, hurt your personal financial situation, or won't make a

difference?

LIKELY VOTERS...

FL OH PA

Help 23% 26% 23%

Hurt 38 38 37

No difference 36 34 37

DK/NA 3 1 3

18. If Mitt Romney is elected, do you think his economic policies would help your

personal financial situation, hurt your personal financial situation, or won't make a

difference?

LIKELY VOTERS...

FL OH PA

Help 31% 26% 26%

Hurt 30 37 32

No difference 34 34 37

DK/NA 4 4 5

19. From what you have read or heard, does Mitt Romney have the right kind of businessexperience to get the economy creating jobs again or is Romney's kind of business

experience too focused on making profits?

LIKELY VOTERS...

FL OH PA

Right experience 42% 41% 42%

Focused on profits 48 50 51

DK/NA 10 9 8

20. Which comes closest to your view of Barack Obama's economic policies,

A) They are improving the economy now, and will probably continue to do so, ORB) They have not improved the economy yet, but will if given more time, OR

C) They are not improving the economy and probably never will.

LIKELY VOTERS...

FL OH PA

A)Improving now 25% 24% 21%

B)Will improve 30 30 35

C)Will never improve 43 44 42

ECONOMY WORSE(VOL) 1 - -

DK/NA 1 1 1


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21. Do you think presidential candidates should publicly release several years of tax

returns, or is releasing only one or two years of tax returns necessary, or don't you

think it is necessary for presidential candidates to release any of their tax returns?

LIKELY VOTERS...

FL OH PA

Several years 53% 51% 54%

One or two years 19 18 17

Not necessary 23 28 25

DK/NA 5 3 4

22. In order to reduce the federal budget deficit, do you support or oppose raising

income taxes on households making more than $250,000 per year?

LIKELY VOTERS...

FL OH PA

Support 58% 60% 62%

Oppose 37 37 34

DK/NA 6 3 3

23. How important will television campaign ads be to your vote for President this year,

very important, somewhat important, not so important, or not important at all?

LIKELY VOTERS...

FL OH PA

Very important 10% 8% 7%

Smwht important 14 14 14

Not so important 17 20 23

Not important at all 58 58 56

DK/NA - 1 -

24. Have you seen any commercials on television for Mitt Romney, or not?IF YES: Did most of Mitt Romney's television commercials spend more time explaining

what Mitt Romney stands for, or did they spend more time attacking Barack Obama?

LIKELY VOTERS...

FL OH PA

Yes/Explained 20% 21% 18%

Yes/Attacked Obama 62 62 51

No/Haven't seen 8 7 21

DK/NA 10 9 10

25. Have you seen any commercials on television for Barack Obama, or not?IF YES: Did most of Barack Obama's television commercials spend more time explaining

what Barack Obama stands for, or did they spend more time attacking Mitt Romney?

LIKELY VOTERS...

FL OH PA

Yes/Explained 24% 28% 24%

Yes/Attacked Romney 57 55 50

No/Haven't seen 7 7 16

DK/NA 12 10 10

Documents

Aug. 1 Quinnipiac University swing poll