Auckland Model Refresh 2018 - Transportation Group NZ · Auckland Model Refresh 2018 NZMUGS Conference Auckland, Sept 17-18 2018 J Valero (AFC) file:///T:\004_General\Presentations\AT_Modelling_Dec13\AFC_MSM_Overview_Jun18.pptx

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Auckland Model Refresh 2018

NZMUGS Conference Auckland, Sept 17-18 2018

J Valero (AFC)

file:///T:\004_General\Presentations\AT_Modelling_Dec13\AFC_MSM_Overview_Jun18.pptx

Auckland Forecasting CentreAn Auckland Council, NZ Transport Agency and Auckland Transport Partnership

An Auckland Council, NZ Transport Agency and Auckland Transport Partnership

Recap: Models Refresh Project –2017 Phase 1

2

Key objectives:• Revise zone system to better represent greenfield areas • Update the models to reflect 2016 conditions• Include PT crowding in the Macro Strategic Model• Enhance the Willingness to Pay (WtP) segmentation in

the model to better assess responses to pricing

Models with improved integration1. MSM Macro Strategic Model (multimodal, previously ART)2. MPT Macro Passenger Transport model (PT modes, previously APT)

ASP3.5 updates: zone system


AKL Model System (+2018)

Land use model

ASP3

Transport demand

model MSM MPT Model

Accessibility Transport costsEnvironmental

Households / personsEmployment

Population Employment

Passenger Transport trips

Network factors

Population &

employment

External

Regional DTA model

Micro pockets (local)

Vehicle tripsRoad speeds Road speeds

Major

project

subareas

DTA network clip

Enhancements to

DTA

Local data

Real Time

simulation

(signals) Operations (local)

User charges (regional)

Networks

Long term

New

In progress

Micro

simulation

MACRO

MESO


Models Refresh Project – 2018 Phase 2

4

Key enhancements:MSM:• New auto-assignment algorithm/procedure• Application of road perception factors in the assignment• Enhancement to Time of Day response• Re calibration/validationMPT:• Replace trip generation/distribution models with PT

growth factors from MSM (better integration with MSM)

• Developed IP and PM peak models

ASP3.5 updates: rents, exogenous developments, planning policies – Unitary Plan and FULSS

An Auckland Council, NZ Transport Agency and Auckland Transport Partnership 5

Model Refresh and Enhancement

Team:

• AFC

• Beca

• Jacobs

• DY Consulting

• TDF Advisory Services

An Auckland Council, NZ Transport Agency and Auckland Transport Partnership6

Willingness to Pay

PT Crowding

Time of Day Choice

Structure of the MSM

Green boxes

are recent

enhancements to MSM

• Trip based (from

simple trip tours)

• 4-step model

• Enhancements

• Activity aggregated into 600 zones

Assignments


Key enhancements: MSM

New Assignment algorithm - Emme’s Path –based equilibrium traffic assignment

• Multi-class and generalised costs assignment capabilities • Saves path for further analyses• Better convergence (relative gap 10^-4 or better)• Faster than Emme’s Standard Traffic assignment

In MSM:

• 7 classes (by trip purposes), 12 classes by WtP segmentation• Path based used in both GC skims and final assignment


Key enhancements: MSM - Application of road perception factors:

MSM generalised cost (GC) assignment path build function:

GC = Time + W.LinkFixed Cost

Link Fixed Cost = Toll + VOC * len * road_perception_ factor

• Provide additional route choice levers to help match observed travel behaviours

• Favours roads up in the hierarchy eg motorway over lower order roads


Key enhancements: MSM - Application of road perception factors:

Link Type

Description Typical Free Speed (km/hr),

@v0

Typical Lane Capacity

(veh/hr/lane),

@q

@ja Road Perception Fator

1 Centroid Connector 40 5000 N/A 1

2 Centroid Connector – Walk/Cycle 40 5000 N/A 1

11 CBD/Shopping – high friction 40 600 1.8 1.5

12 CBD/Shopping – low friction 45 800 1.6 1.5

13 Local 45 1000 1.2 1.6

14 Collector – high friction/poor alignment 48 1100 1.2 1.4

15 Collector – low friction/good alignment 48 1200 1.0 1.4

16 Urban arterial – low speed 50 1300 1.0 1.3

17 Urban arterial – high speed 50 1400 0.8 1.1

18 Expressway 95 1800 0.8 0.9

19 Motorway 100 2000 0.2 0.9

20 On-ramp 7 1800 0.2 0.9

21 Off-ramp 70 1800 0.2 0.9

22 Rural – level 100 1400 1.4 1.2

23 Rural – rolling 85 1300 1.4 1.3

24 Rural – mountainous 75 1000 1.4 1.3

25 Rural highway – townships 70 1400 1.4 1.3

26 Rural highway 60 1000 1.4 1.4

27 Rural Other 50 850 1.4 1.4


Key enhancements: MSM – Enhancement to ToD

10

Issue: Modelled IP trips higher, OP trips lower, Home Base time period factors are fixed



Solution: Add an elasticity to the home-based time period factors,

similar to that applied to (existing) non-home based factors

new tod factors = current tod factors * exp(sensitivity *(TPF*(futureGC-2016GC)

TPF = Time Period Factor

Sensitivity = 0.05, higher than 0.028 for NHB

Assessed as reasonable as home based trips are more sensitive to congestion (no change in PT ToD response)




MSM Validation Results


Key enhancements: MPT

Issue: Two sets of forecasts - ART3 and APT3

Solution:• Replace trip generation and distribution models with PT

growth factors from MSM

• Growth factor method is based on research paper:

Pivoting in Travel Demand Models by Daly, Fox, Patruni,Milthorpe presented at the ATRF 2012, Perth, Australia

http://atrf.info/papers/2012/index.aspx


Structure of MPT

15

Forecasting, Reference

Future Reference Network

Skim assignments for Non-car and

Car Access Generalised Costs

PT Mode Split (logit)

Assignment by three

sub modes

Future Reference PT total Demand

PT Growth Factors from

MSM

2016 BaseYear

Observed PTDemand

Final Outputs

Check Convergence

Yes

No

Inner Crowding

loops

Outer Crowding

loops


MPT Validation Results


MPT Validation Results


Models Refresh Project -Application

18

AFC Model Type Selection by Study Type


Models Refresh Project -Application

19

Major Projects to date:

• RLTP 2028 Funded scenario (MSM)

• LRT City Centre to Mangere (MSM+MPT)

• The Congestion Question ((MSM)

• Supporting Growth (MSM+Projects)

Thank you

www.aucklandforecastingcentre.org.nz

file:T:\004_General\Presentations\AT_Modelling\AFC_MSM_MPT_Overview_Jul18.pptx

Auckland Forecasting CentreAn Auckland Council, NZ Transport Agency and Auckland

Transport Partnership

Documents

Auckland Model Refresh 2018 - Transportation Group NZ · Auckland Model Refresh 2018 NZMUGS Conference Auckland, Sept 17-18 2018 J Valero (AFC) file:///T:\004_General\Presentations\AT_Modelling_Dec13\AFC_MSM_Overview_Jun18.pptx