Attribution of HazeAttribution of HazeProject UpdateProject Update

Stationary Sources Forum Stationary Sources Forum and Implementation and Implementation

Workgroup Meeting, PhoenixWorkgroup Meeting, PhoenixDecember 14, 2004December 14, 2004

Joe Adlhoch - Air Resource Specialists, Inc.Joe Adlhoch - Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

OutlineOutline

Project OverviewProject Overview Data InputsData Inputs

Emissions DataEmissions Data Monitoring DataMonitoring Data ModelingModeling

Analysis and ResultsAnalysis and Results Regional Extinction and EmissionsRegional Extinction and Emissions Attribution ResultsAttribution Results Initial GroupingsInitial Groupings State Impacts on Class I AreasState Impacts on Class I Areas Regional Assessment - FireRegional Assessment - Fire

Major Findings and Next StepsMajor Findings and Next Steps

IntroductionIntroduction

WRAP Strategic Plan (2003)WRAP Strategic Plan (2003) ARS contracted to integrate and ARS contracted to integrate and

synthesize synthesize availableavailable 2002 monitoring, 2002 monitoring, modeling, and emissions data to identify:modeling, and emissions data to identify:

Geographic source areas of emissions that Geographic source areas of emissions that contribute to impairment at federal and tribal contribute to impairment at federal and tribal Class I areasClass I areas

Mass and species distributions of emissions by Mass and species distributions of emissions by source category within each geographic source source category within each geographic source areaarea

The amount of natural and anthropogenic The amount of natural and anthropogenic emissions affecting, and the associated visibility emissions affecting, and the associated visibility impact at, each Class I areaimpact at, each Class I area

WRAP Strategic PlanWRAP Strategic PlanPhase IPhase I2003-052003-05

Phase IIPhase II2005-072005-07

Purpose:Purpose: Dry run for Phase II.Dry run for Phase II.

Refine and apply Refine and apply Phase IPhase I

approaches for approaches for SIP/TIPSIP/TIP

purposes.purposes.

Scale:Scale: Regional.Regional. Regional and Regional and subregional.subregional.

ApportionmeApportionment:nt:

96/02 source 96/02 source contributions.contributions.

Areas each plan to Areas each plan to address.address.

2002 source 2002 source contributions.contributions.

Reduction obligations.Reduction obligations.

Strategies:Strategies: Identify options, Identify options, screen.screen.

Cost/benefit, select, Cost/benefit, select, design.design.

CommunicatCommunication:ion: Public education.Public education. Public acceptance.Public acceptance.

Major Major State/TribState/Trib

alalsubmittals:submittals:

2002 emissions 2002 emissions inventory.inventory.

Modeling run Modeling run specifications.specifications.

AoH Phase I Report AoH Phase I Report StructureStructure

Supporting Reports

(Web-based)

Summary Report

(Hardcopy andWeb-based)

WRAP Data

Centers

AoH Phase I Web PageAoH Phase I Web Page

http://wrapair.org/forums/aoh/ars1/AoH_Summary_Report_Draft.pdf

DeliverablesDeliverables

Prepared 96 regional/state emissions mapsPrepared 96 regional/state emissions maps Prepared data summaries for 85 sitesPrepared data summaries for 85 sites Reviewed and analyzed 2002 attribution Reviewed and analyzed 2002 attribution

results for over 100 federal and tribal Class results for over 100 federal and tribal Class I areasI areas

Determined regional groupings of source Determined regional groupings of source impacts across the WRAP regionimpacts across the WRAP region

Developed project web page to support Developed project web page to support findingsfindings

Prepared draft summary reportPrepared draft summary report

Primary Data InputsPrimary Data Inputs

Emissions Inventories (EI)Emissions Inventories (EI) Tracks pollution estimates of source categories Tracks pollution estimates of source categories

and aerosol speciesand aerosol species Spatial variation and source strength in EIs Spatial variation and source strength in EIs

affects monitoring data and model resultsaffects monitoring data and model results Confidence in these data is mediumConfidence in these data is medium

Monitoring DataMonitoring Data Snapshot of aerosol pollution at a given locationSnapshot of aerosol pollution at a given location Confidence in these data is highConfidence in these data is high

ModelingModeling Allows us to estimate the transformation and Allows us to estimate the transformation and

movement and fate of emissions in the movement and fate of emissions in the atmosphereatmosphere

Model performance is tested by comparisons to Model performance is tested by comparisons to monitoring datamonitoring data

Emissions Data SetEmissions Data Set

EPA 2002 NEI not useable for this EPA 2002 NEI not useable for this purpose purpose → → WRAP facilitated WRAP facilitated development of “interim” 2002 development of “interim” 2002 emissionsemissions PointPoint AreaArea Mobile (On-Road & Non-Road)Mobile (On-Road & Non-Road) Road Dust (Paved & Unpaved)Road Dust (Paved & Unpaved) FireFire Windblown DustWindblown Dust BiogenicsBiogenics Modeling Domain Boundary ConditionsModeling Domain Boundary Conditions

AoH interim 2002 EI

Point and Area SourcesPoint and Area SourcesSectorSector WRAP StatesWRAP States CENRAP StatesCENRAP States

Point SourcesPoint Sources

EGUsEGUs ETS/CEM data and EIA-767 ETS/CEM data and EIA-767 based estimates for 2002based estimates for 2002

WRAP 1996 point source WRAP 1996 point source filefile

Copper smeltersCopper smelters SOSO22 emissions provided by emissions provided by

smelter companiessmelter companiesNot applicableNot applicable

Non-utilities, non-smelterNon-utilities, non-smelter IAS model projections from IAS model projections from 1996 to 20021996 to 2002Year 2000 facility-level SOYear 2000 facility-level SO22

emissions substituted for emissions substituted for major 9-State emittersmajor 9-State emitters

IAS model projection from IAS model projection from 1996 to 20021996 to 2002

Area SourcesArea Sources Applied 1999-2002 growth Applied 1999-2002 growth factors to 1999 NEI area factors to 1999 NEI area source emission estimatessource emission estimates

Applied 1999-2002 growth Applied 1999-2002 growth factors to 1999 NEI area factors to 1999 NEI area source emission estimatessource emission estimates

Geographic extent: US States, Canada and MexicoGeographic extent: US States, Canada and Mexico Emissions outside the WRAP and CENRAP regions Emissions outside the WRAP and CENRAP regions

are from the other RPOs and the EPAare from the other RPOs and the EPA Prepared by E.H. Pechan and AssociatesPrepared by E.H. Pechan and Associates

AoH interim 2002 EI

Mobile SourcesMobile Sources

Emissions were estimated for the 1996 base year Emissions were estimated for the 1996 base year and four future years – 2003, 2008, 2013, 2018and four future years – 2003, 2008, 2013, 2018 Road Dust (2002 interpolated between 1996 and 2018)Road Dust (2002 interpolated between 1996 and 2018) 2003 Mobile Emissions used for “interim” 20022003 Mobile Emissions used for “interim” 2002

On-road (EPA MOBILE6 and PART5)On-road (EPA MOBILE6 and PART5) Off-road (EPA NONROAD2000)Off-road (EPA NONROAD2000)

One known limitation:One known limitation: EPA has updated the NONROAD model twice in the last 3 EPA has updated the NONROAD model twice in the last 3

years – NONROAD2000 emission estimates are noticeably years – NONROAD2000 emission estimates are noticeably higher than the NONROAD2004 estimateshigher than the NONROAD2004 estimates

California provided mobile source emissions estimatesCalifornia provided mobile source emissions estimates Geographic extent: US States, Canada and MexicoGeographic extent: US States, Canada and Mexico Emissions outside the WRAP region are from the Emissions outside the WRAP region are from the

other RPOs and the EPAother RPOs and the EPA Prepared by ENVIRONPrepared by ENVIRON

AoH interim 2002 EI

Fire EmissionsFire Emissions

Actual 2002 wildland fire and Actual 2002 wildland fire and prescribed fire emission inventoriesprescribed fire emission inventories

Agricultural fire emissions estimates Agricultural fire emissions estimates were from Section 309 workwere from Section 309 work

Specific location, date, size and fuel Specific location, date, size and fuel loading for each fire event.loading for each fire event.

Geographic extent: WRAP regionGeographic extent: WRAP region Some emissions outside the WRAP Some emissions outside the WRAP

region were included, but were region were included, but were incompleteincomplete

Prepared by Air Sciences, Inc.Prepared by Air Sciences, Inc.

AoH interim 2002 EI

Biogenics and Windblown Biogenics and Windblown DustDust

Data Inputs:Data Inputs: Land Use/Land Cover (BELD3, NALCC, NLCD)Land Use/Land Cover (BELD3, NALCC, NLCD) Windblown Dust Soil Characteristics Windblown Dust Soil Characteristics

(STATSGO; Soil Landscape of Canada; Intl. Soil (STATSGO; Soil Landscape of Canada; Intl. Soil Reference and Information Centre)Reference and Information Centre)

Meteorological Data (2002 36-km MM5 )Meteorological Data (2002 36-km MM5 ) Agricultural Data (BELD3, RUSLE2, CTIC)Agricultural Data (BELD3, RUSLE2, CTIC)

Emissions Estimation Models:Emissions Estimation Models: Biogenic Emissions Inventory System (BEIS3)Biogenic Emissions Inventory System (BEIS3) WRAP Windblown Dust Emissions ModelWRAP Windblown Dust Emissions Model

EI includes modeling domainEI includes modeling domain Prepared by the Regional Modeling CenterPrepared by the Regional Modeling Center

AoH interim 2002 EI

Modeling Domain Boundary Modeling Domain Boundary ConditionsConditions

Boundary conditions derived from annual Boundary conditions derived from annual simulation of the GEOSCHEM global simulation of the GEOSCHEM global chemical-transport model. chemical-transport model. GEOSCHEM by Daniel Jacob at HarvardGEOSCHEM by Daniel Jacob at Harvard Key modeled species and grid information were Key modeled species and grid information were

mapped from “GEOSCHEM” to CMAQ species mapped from “GEOSCHEM” to CMAQ species by Daewon Byun at University of Houston.by Daewon Byun at University of Houston.

Earlier simulations used a seasonal average Earlier simulations used a seasonal average from GEOSCHEM.from GEOSCHEM.

AoH final simulations use an annual 2002 AoH final simulations use an annual 2002 simulation with 3-hour time steps.simulation with 3-hour time steps.

CMAQ initial conditions created by running a CMAQ initial conditions created by running a “spin-up” period from Dec 17-31, 2001.“spin-up” period from Dec 17-31, 2001.

AoH interim 2002 EI

WRAP Annual 2002 WRAP Annual 2002 EmissionsEmissions

NOx SO2

AoH interim 2002 EI

NH3 PM2.5

PMC

Monitoring Data SetMonitoring Data Set

IMPROVE – National program to monitor IMPROVE – National program to monitor atmospheric aerosols in mandatory atmospheric aerosols in mandatory federal and tribal class I areas (CIAs)federal and tribal class I areas (CIAs)

Speciated aerosol samples collected Speciated aerosol samples collected every 3 daysevery 3 days

Data are used to calculate visibility Data are used to calculate visibility impairment expressed as extinction, impairment expressed as extinction, deciviews, or visual range:deciviews, or visual range:

Tied to Regional Haze Rule Tied to Regional Haze Rule requirementsrequirements

Some sites have > 15 year historySome sites have > 15 year history

IMPROVE Aerosol Sampler IMPROVE Aerosol Sampler SystemsSystems

•Sulfur>>Sulfate•Fine Soil

•Nitrate•Sulfate (backup)

•Organic Carbon•Elem. Carbon

• Coarse Mass

WRAP includes 116 (of 156) Mandatory Federal Class I Areas

WRAP Tribal Class I Areas:

• Spokane Tribe• Northern Cheyenne

Tribe• Fort Peck Tribes• Confederated Salish

and Kootenai Tribes• Yavapai-Apache

Nation• Hualapai Tribe

(pending)

Sample IMPROVE Data Sample IMPROVE Data Timeline PlotTimeline Plot

Redwood NP (CA) Spokane Indian Reservation (WA)

Sequoia NP (CA) Sawtooth W (ID)

AoH ModelingAoH Modeling

Regional dispersion modelingRegional dispersion modeling Trajectory modelingTrajectory modeling

Regional Scale ModelingRegional Scale Modeling

WRAP Regional Modeling CenterWRAP Regional Modeling Center http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/

CMAQ model runs using 2002 “interim” EIs CMAQ model runs using 2002 “interim” EIs and MM5 dataand MM5 data

CMAQ – EPA-developed model for regional CMAQ – EPA-developed model for regional analysisanalysis

Tagged Species Source Apportionment (TSSA)Tagged Species Source Apportionment (TSSA) Use “Tagged Species” tracers to track chemical Use “Tagged Species” tracers to track chemical

transformations and deposition across domaintransformations and deposition across domain Add source type tracers for key species and for Add source type tracers for key species and for

defined regions and source categoriesdefined regions and source categories Contribution results at each receptor site – no Contribution results at each receptor site – no

need for aerosol samplers to be presentneed for aerosol samplers to be present

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0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91

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0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11

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0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11

0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11

0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11

0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 10 10 10 10 10

0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 10 10 10 10 10

0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 10 10 10 10 10

0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 10 10 10 10 10

0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 10 10 10 10 10

0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 10 10 10 10 10

0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 10 10 10 10 10

0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 10 10 10 10 10

0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 10 10 10 10 10

0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 6 6 6 6 6 6 10 10 10 10 10 10

0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 10 10 10 10 10 10

0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 10 10 10 10 10

0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 9

0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 9

0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 9 9

0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 9 9

0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 9 9

0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 9 9

0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 9 9

91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91

91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91

91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91

91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91

91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91

91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91

91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91

91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91

91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91

91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91

91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91

91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91

91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91

91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91

91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91

91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91

91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91

91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91

11 11 11 11 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91

11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 22 22 22 22 22 22 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 0

11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 91 91 22 22 91 0 0

11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 0 0 0

11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 0 0 0 0 0

11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 0 0 0 0 44

11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 0 33 0 0 44 44

11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 33 33 33 33 44 44 44

11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 33 33 33 33 33 33 33

11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 33 33 33 33 33 33 33

11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33

11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33

10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33

10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 33 33 33 33 33 33 33

10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 33 33 33 33 33 33

10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 33 33 33 33

10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 33 33 33 33

10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 33 33 33 33

10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 33 33 33 33

10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 26 26 26 26 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 59 59

10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 59

10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 59

10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 59 59 59

10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 59 59 59

9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 59 59 59

9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 59 59 59

9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 59 59 59 59

9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 59 59 59

9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 59 59

9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 59

9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 750 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 9 9

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 9 9 9

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 9 9 9

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 9 9 9

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 1 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 0 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 0 0 0 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 0 0 0 0 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 2 9 2

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 0 0 0 0 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 0 0 0 0 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 2 9 2 9 2 0 0 0 0 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 2 9 2 9 2 0 0 0 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 2 9 2 9 2 0 0 0 0 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 2 9 2 9 2 0 0 0 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 2 9 2 9 2 0 9 2 0 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 2 0 0 0 9 2 9 2 9 2 0 0 0 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 0 0 0 0 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 0 0 0 0 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 2 9 2 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 2 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 2 9 2 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 2 9 2 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 2 9 2 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 2 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 2 9 2 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 2 9 2 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 2 9 2 9 2

9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 7 5 7 5 7 5

9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 7 5 7 5 7 5

9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 7 5 7 5 7 5

9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 7 5 7 5 7 5

8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 7 5 7 5 7 5

8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 7 5 7 5 7 5

8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 8 0 8 0 8 0

8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 8 0 8 0

8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 8 0 8 0

8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 8 0 8 0

8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 8 0 8 0

8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 8 0 8 0

8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 8 0 8 0

8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 8 0 8 0

8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 8 0 8 0

8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 8 0

8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 7 0

8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 7 0

8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 7 0

8 6 0 6 0 6 0 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 7 0

9 2 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0

9 2 9 2 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0

9 2 9 2 9 2 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0

9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0

9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0

9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0

9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0

9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 0

9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 6 0 6 0 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 0 0

9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 0 0 0 0

9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0

9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 6 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Traced Area: WRAP Modeling Traced Area: WRAP Modeling DomainDomain

Each state is distinguished by a unique number in the source area mapping file

TypesTypes Source Source CategoryCategory

NotesNotes

ICONICON ICONICON Initial ConcentrationInitial Concentration

BCONBCON BCONBCON Boundary ConcentrationBoundary Concentration

EmissionsEmissions MV_*MV_* Mobile sources from any state (on-road)Mobile sources from any state (on-road)

BG_*BG_* Biogenic sources from any stateBiogenic sources from any state

RD_*RD_* Paved + unpaved road dust from any statePaved + unpaved road dust from any state

NR_*NR_* Non-road sources from any stateNon-road sources from any state

PN_*PN_* Point sources from any statePoint sources from any state

AR_*AR_* Area sources from any stateArea sources from any state

WF_*WF_* Wildland fire from any stateWildland fire from any state

AG_*AG_* Agricultural fire from any stateAgricultural fire from any state

RX_*RX_* Prescribed fire from any statePrescribed fire from any state

ET_*ET_* Total emissions from any stateTotal emissions from any state

*_WRAP*_WRAP Any type of source category emissions from WRAP Any type of source category emissions from WRAP domaindomain

OthersOthers OTHERSOTHERS Any sources other than all of the aboveAny sources other than all of the above

Traced Source TagsTraced Source Tags

Trajectory Regression Analysis Trajectory Regression Analysis (TRA)(TRA)

Desert Research InstituteDesert Research Institute Part of WRAP Causes of Haze Assessment Part of WRAP Causes of Haze Assessment

(COHA)(COHA) http://coha.dri.edu/index.htmlhttp://coha.dri.edu/index.html

Meteorological back trajectories run for 2000 Meteorological back trajectories run for 2000 – 2002 to determine flow patterns for each – 2002 to determine flow patterns for each IMPROVE siteIMPROVE site

TRA finds the best fit between the time air TRA finds the best fit between the time air spends over a defined area (source region) and spends over a defined area (source region) and the air quality parameter measured at an the air quality parameter measured at an IMPROVE siteIMPROVE site

Contribution results at each IMPROVE siteContribution results at each IMPROVE site No results for unmonitored CIAsNo results for unmonitored CIAs Monitored locations must have sufficient dataMonitored locations must have sufficient data

Back Back Trajectory Trajectory Residence Residence

Time Time SummariesSummaries

20% worst sulfate 20% worst sulfate days (2000 – 2002)days (2000 – 2002)

W, SW, SE show W, SW, SE show highest residence highest residence times at Great Sand times at Great Sand DunesDunes

NW, W, S show NW, W, S show highest residence highest residence times at Craters of times at Craters of the Moonthe Moon

Great Sand Dunes, Colorado

Craters of the Moon, Idaho

TRA Source Regions - TRA Source Regions - ExampleExample

Used for Used for comparison of comparison of TSSA and TRA TSSA and TRA resultsresults

Boundary Boundary states (inner states (inner circle)circle)

U.S. regions U.S. regions (outer circle)(outer circle)

International International (Can., Mex.)(Can., Mex.)

Other (ocean, Other (ocean, gulf, boundary gulf, boundary conditions, conditions, unknown or unknown or not able to not able to attribute)attribute)

Source Region Grouping - Source Region Grouping - ExampleExample

TSSATSSA Errors and uncertainties in gridded meteorological Errors and uncertainties in gridded meteorological

datadata Emissions inventories uncertain and in some cases Emissions inventories uncertain and in some cases

incompleteincomplete TSSA – new application in CMAQTSSA – new application in CMAQ 36 km grid resolution is too coarse to resolve near 36 km grid resolution is too coarse to resolve near

field effectsfield effects TRATRA

Statistical technique – has associated uncertainty Statistical technique – has associated uncertainty limitslimits

Based on EDAS back trajectories – uncertainty Based on EDAS back trajectories – uncertainty increases as you move away from the end time and increases as you move away from the end time and datedate

““Edge effect” for CIAs or source regions near the Edge effect” for CIAs or source regions near the boundary of a stateboundary of a state

Modeling UncertaintiesModeling Uncertainties

Integrated Analysis and Integrated Analysis and ResultsResults

Weight of evidence approach:Weight of evidence approach: Less confident in any single analysisLess confident in any single analysis Multiple, independent analyses are necessary Multiple, independent analyses are necessary

to gain more confidence in findingsto gain more confidence in findings Integrated analysis looked at:Integrated analysis looked at:

Accuracy and reliability of EIs, monitoring Accuracy and reliability of EIs, monitoring data, model resultsdata, model results

Geographic source regions for SO4 and NO3Geographic source regions for SO4 and NO3 TSSA – Point and Mobile emissionsTSSA – Point and Mobile emissions TRA – Did not distinguish between source TRA – Did not distinguish between source

categoriescategories Logical groupings of CIAs exist based on Logical groupings of CIAs exist based on

attribution of these pollutantsattribution of these pollutants

Weight of Evidence Approach – Weight of Evidence Approach – ConsiderationsConsiderations

TSSA ResultsTSSA Results Supported by other analyses?Supported by other analyses? What if contradicted by other analyses?What if contradicted by other analyses?

TRA ResultsTRA Results Noisy data – statistical interpretation requiredNoisy data – statistical interpretation required Farther source regions must be larger to compensate Farther source regions must be larger to compensate

for increasing uncertainties in longer trajectoriesfor increasing uncertainties in longer trajectories Do we see possible “edge effects”?Do we see possible “edge effects”?

Monitoring DataMonitoring Data Reasonably accurate and certain measurementsReasonably accurate and certain measurements As a snap shot, can’t demonstrate cause and effectAs a snap shot, can’t demonstrate cause and effect

EmissionsEmissions EI are estimates, not directly measuredEI are estimates, not directly measured Do EI inputs support attribution results?Do EI inputs support attribution results?

Aerosol Extinction

Sulfate Extinction

Nitrate Extinction

Organics Extinction

2002 WRAP Aerosol/Species 2002 WRAP Aerosol/Species ExtinctionExtinction

SOSO22 Emissions (WRAP 2002 Emissions (WRAP 2002 Interim EI)Interim EI)

NONOXX Emissions (WRAP 2002 Emissions (WRAP 2002 Interim EI)Interim EI)

Sample State Sample State Emissions Emissions

Summary for Summary for NOxNOx

State map with State map with 36 x 36 km 36 x 36 km gridded emissionsgridded emissions

Brief text Brief text description of description of NOxNOx

Breakdown of Breakdown of state-wide NOx state-wide NOx emissions by emissions by source typesource type

Rocky Mountain NP – TSSA Rocky Mountain NP – TSSA Sulfate ResultsSulfate Results

Rocky Mountain NP – TRA Sulfate Rocky Mountain NP – TRA Sulfate ResultsResults

Rocky Mountain NP – TSSA Rocky Mountain NP – TSSA Nitrate ResultsNitrate Results

Colorado emissions Colorado emissions are a major are a major contributor in both contributor in both methodsmethods

Border states Border states impact ROMO in impact ROMO in both methods (49-both methods (49-67%)67%)

Other US regions Other US regions also contribute in also contribute in both methods (16-both methods (16-27%)27%)

Largest differences Largest differences between TSSA and between TSSA and TRA seen in TRA seen in attribution from attribution from Colorado and Colorado and WyomingWyoming

Attribution Summary for Rocky Attribution Summary for Rocky Mountain NPMountain NP

Source RegionsImpacting TSSA TRA TSSA

Rocky Mountain NP Sulfate (%) Sulfate (%) Nitrate (%)Colorado 40 31 28New Mexico 6 4 4Arizona 2 9 3Utah 8 4 10Wyoming 11 1 8NW US (ID, MT, OR, WA) 7 9 6SW US (CA, NV) 5 7 10East 4 11 4Canada 0 2 4Mexico 1 5 0Minor 3 -- 8Other 19 -- 22Boundary 0 -- 0Initial 1 -- 0Pacific Coast -- 8 --Pacific Ocean -- 8 --Gulf of Mex. -- 3 --Atlantic Ocean -- 2 --

Contribution by Method

New Mexico New Mexico emissions are the emissions are the major contributor in major contributor in both methodsboth methods

Border states impact Border states impact MEVE in both MEVE in both methods (57-80%)methods (57-80%)

Other US regions Other US regions also contribute in also contribute in both methods (6-both methods (6-16%)16%)

Largest differences Largest differences between TSSA and between TSSA and TRA seen in TRA seen in attribution from attribution from New Mexico and New Mexico and Arizona – May be Arizona – May be “edge effect”“edge effect”

Attribution Summary for Mesa Attribution Summary for Mesa Verde NPVerde NP

Source RegionsImpacting TSSA TRA TSSA

Mesa Verde NP Sulfate (%) Sulfate (%) Nitrate (%)Colorado 8 14 13New Mexico 52 18 29Arizona 5 15 7Utah 13 9 16Wyoming 2 1 1NW US (ID, MT, OR, WA) 1 2 5SW US (CA, NV) 4 1 10East 1 8 1Canada 0 1 1Mexico 0 9 0Minor 1 -- 7Other 10 -- 13Boundary 0 -- 0Initial 1 -- 1Pacific Coast -- 9 --Pacific Ocean -- 17 --Gulf of Mex. -- 0 --Atlantic Ocean -- 0 --

Contribution by Method

““Edge Effect” Explanation Edge Effect” Explanation for Sulfate TRA Resultsfor Sulfate TRA Results

Trajectory Trajectory points every 3 points every 3 hours may not hours may not accurately accurately represent high represent high emission source emission source regions near the regions near the edges of statesedges of states

Therefore, TRA Therefore, TRA results may results may miss or miss or underestimate underestimate the impact from the impact from these regionsthese regions

24 groupings24 groupings Based on Based on

source region source region attribution attribution and species and species signal signal strength and strength and similaritysimilarity

Groupings Groupings similar for similar for SO4 and NO3SO4 and NO3

Initial Grouping of CIAs by Initial Grouping of CIAs by Sulfate and Nitrate Source Sulfate and Nitrate Source

AttributionAttribution

Available Attribution Available Attribution InformationInformation

Attribution Support

Species TSSATrajectory Regression

Back Trajectory Summaries Emissions Monitoring

Sulfate x x x x xNitrate x x x x

Organics x x xElem. Carbon x x x

Soil x x xCoarse x x x

Extinction x x x

Other Supporting DataAttribution Results

More information for some species than More information for some species than othersothers

Credibility of results depend on how well all Credibility of results depend on how well all categories of information agreecategories of information agree

Colorado’s Contribution to Colorado’s Contribution to SulfateSulfate

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Mo

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W

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W

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W

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NM

Bo

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Ap

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W

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Can

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lan

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NP

Arc

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NP

Cap

ital

Ree

f N

P

Bry

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Ca

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n N

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NP

Bad

lan

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CO NM UT SD

Co

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Colorado’s Contribution to Colorado’s Contribution to NitrateNitrate

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Ro

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Mo

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tain

NP

Eag

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Nes

t W

Raw

ah W

Mo

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Gre

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and

Du

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P

Mar

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s-S

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wm

ass

W

La

Gar

ita

W

Bla

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an

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of

Gu

nn

iso

n N

P

Mes

a V

erd

e N

P

Fla

t T

op

s W

Wes

t E

lk W

Wem

inu

che

W

Pec

os

W

San

Pe

dro

Pa

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W

Ban

del

ier

NM

Wh

ite

Mo

un

tain

W

Sal

t C

ree

k W

Car

lsb

ad C

aver

ns

NP

Bo

sq

ue

del

Ap

ach

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Gil

a W

Ch

iric

ahu

a N

M

Arc

hes

NP

Can

yon

lan

ds

NP

Win

d C

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NP

Bad

lan

ds

NP

CO NM AZ UT SD

Co

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Attribution MatrixAttribution Matrix<<<<< Source Regions (States, etc.)

>>>>>

<<

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Contributions (%) to CIAs by Source Regions:

Which source regions affect CIAs?

Which CIAs do source regions affect?

Regional Assessment - FireRegional Assessment - FireA.A. The difference between the CMAQ-modeled visibility The difference between the CMAQ-modeled visibility

impacts with and without all fire emissions.impacts with and without all fire emissions. This model run is designed to isolate the effect of fire This model run is designed to isolate the effect of fire

emissions on visibility from the effect of all other emissions on visibility from the effect of all other emissions sources in the model.emissions sources in the model.

B.B. The difference between the CMAQ-modeled visibility The difference between the CMAQ-modeled visibility impacts with “natural” fire emissions, and all fire impacts with “natural” fire emissions, and all fire emissions.emissions.

This model run is designed to isolate the effect of This model run is designed to isolate the effect of “anthropogenic” fire emissions on visibility from the “anthropogenic” fire emissions on visibility from the effect of all other emissions sources in the model, effect of all other emissions sources in the model, including “natural” fire.including “natural” fire.

C.C. The difference between the CMAQ-modeled visibility The difference between the CMAQ-modeled visibility impacts with all fire emissions, and without impacts with all fire emissions, and without anthropogenic fire emissions.anthropogenic fire emissions.

This model run is designed to isolate effects of This model run is designed to isolate effects of “natural” fire emissions on visibility from the effect of “natural” fire emissions on visibility from the effect of all other emissions sources in the model, including all other emissions sources in the model, including “anthropogenic” fire.“anthropogenic” fire.

A. Fire Assessment – Visibility A. Fire Assessment – Visibility Impact of All Fire EmissionsImpact of All Fire Emissions

B. Fire Assessment – Visibility B. Fire Assessment – Visibility Impact of Anthropogenic FiresImpact of Anthropogenic Fires

C. Fire Assessment – Visibility C. Fire Assessment – Visibility Impact of Natural FiresImpact of Natural Fires

Major FindingsMajor Findings

Compiled attributions for 125 Class I areasCompiled attributions for 125 Class I areas Independent apportionment methods generally Independent apportionment methods generally

consistent in identifying source regionsconsistent in identifying source regions AoH weight of evidence method generally AoH weight of evidence method generally

applicable to haze attributionapplicable to haze attribution Emissions from mobile and point source Emissions from mobile and point source

categories:categories: SOSO22 and NO and NOxx are regional pollutants, comprising a are regional pollutants, comprising a

significant percentage of each state’s emissionssignificant percentage of each state’s emissions Both are important contributors to light extinctionBoth are important contributors to light extinction Modeled emissions from each WRAP region state Modeled emissions from each WRAP region state

impact Class I areas of one or more other states and impact Class I areas of one or more other states and tribestribes

Next StepsNext Steps

Draft report to be released 12/17/04 on the Draft report to be released 12/17/04 on the WRAP AoH web site:WRAP AoH web site:

http://www.wrapair.org/forums/aoh/ars1/documents/Aohttp://www.wrapair.org/forums/aoh/ars1/documents/AoH_Summary_Report_Draft.pdfH_Summary_Report_Draft.pdf

Review comments need to be directed to ARS Review comments need to be directed to ARS by 1/20/05 – use “AoH Draft Review” as the e-by 1/20/05 – use “AoH Draft Review” as the e-mail subject. E-mail to: mail subject. E-mail to: jadlhochjadlhoch@air-resource.com@air-resource.com

AoH Workgroup to review compiled comments AoH Workgroup to review compiled comments and complete report by end of January, 2005and complete report by end of January, 2005

Results and recommendations to help Results and recommendations to help preparation for AoH Phase II project (starts preparation for AoH Phase II project (starts mid-2005)mid-2005)