Met Office Science Review Meetings 2013

MOSAC 18.15

Atmospheric Dispersion & Air Quality Matthew Hort

Volcanic and Radiological Dispersion

(Manager + 6)

Chemical and Biological Dispersion

(Manager + 6)

Dispersion Processes and

Parameterisations

(Fellow + 4)

Air Quality and Composition

(Manager + 4)

ADAQ Met Office

Chief Scientist

SCIENCE PARTNERSHIPS

Understanding Climate Change

Climate Monitoring & Attribution

Monthly to Decadal Variability & Prediction

Earth System Science & Mitigation Studies

Met Office Hadley Centre CLIMATE SCIENCE

Oceans, Cryosphere & Dangerous Climate Change

Climate Impacts & Adaptation Studies

FOUNDATION SCIENCE

Observational-Based Research

Atmospheric Processes & Parametrizations

Global UM Development & Evaluation

Dynamics Research

APPLIED SCIENCE (NEW)

Applied Climate Science

Applied Weather Science

Scientific Consulting

International business development

Government business ESSP etc...

Operational Weather Forecasting & IT

Satellite Applications

Data Assimilation & Ensembles

Ocean Forecasting

Atmospheric Dispersion and Air Quality

WEATHER SCIENCE

Biological

Volcanic

Chemicals Particulate

Radiological

Air Quality

Health Impacts

Environmental

Impacts

Weather Feedbacks

Atmospheric Process

Chemical Processes

Emissions

ADAQ

• Science

• Response

• Policy support and planning

• Risk assessment

• Consultancy

• Collaboration

ADAQ Drivers

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VAAC’s

RSMC’s PURE

PWS

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NAME Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion

Modelling Environment

AQUM Air Quality in the Unified Model

Recent R&D Highlights NAME

• Urban parameterisation

• Inversion for emergency

response

• Wet deposition updated

• Fukushima

• WHO, UNSCEAR, WMO-TT

• Biological contaminants

Satellite Retrieval

a priori

Inversion solution

Fukushima Cs137 Deposition

Modelled

Observed

Recent R&D Highlights NAME

• Volcanic SO2 modelling

• Singapore – ‘Haze’ forecast

• Operational systems

• VAAC and EMARC systems re-engineered

• Buoyant plume rise

• Consortia

• VANAHEIM, FUTUREVOLC,

RACER, CREDIBLE

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Singapore

Recent R&D Highlights AQUM

• Key model paper (Savage et al. 2013)

• Defra model inter-comparison

“AQUM performs best for forecasting

the Daily Air Quality Index”

• AQMEII-2 international model

inter-comparison.

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Recent R&D Highlights AQUM

• Health Air

• Aim: Develop a rigorous statistical

framework for estimating the long-term

health effects of air pollution

• Regional Climate Model AQUM

• Some evaluation of complexity of

chemistry schemes/emissions

• Testing @ 4 km

• Still much to be done!

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4 km 12 km

Strategy

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Under Construction

ADAQ - Goals

• Deliver world leading probabilistic impact forecasts (Dispersion and AQ) at scales from 10's of metres to global out to 5 days

• Incorporation of relevant chemical, biological, radiological and volcanological processes

• Contribute to improved UK weather forecasts, especially visibility, through improved representation of atmospheric composition.

• Integrated multi-agency/multi-disciplinary collaborative science and services across all areas

• Deliver growth

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Deliver world leading probabilistic impact forecasts (Dispersion and AQ) at scales from 10's of metres to global out to 5 days.

• Uncertainty – quantification and representation

• Inversion and data assimilation (+ MACC)

• Higher resolution

• 4km (AQ: 2015) ~ 1 km (AQ: ~2018)

• Urban

• Evaluate NWP links and coupling

• Optimal temporal/spatial resolutions

• Coupled Lagrangian-Eulerian

• Weather feedbacks and investigation

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GLA

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2

x (m)

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

y (

m)

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2

x (m)

0.000

0.001

0.002

0.003

0.004

0.007

0.010

0.016

0.024

0.036

0.055

0.084

0.127

0.194

0.296

C

(a) (b)Leuzzi et al 2012

Incorporation of relevant chemical, biological, radiological and volcanological processes

• Application specific capability is key:

• meteorological dependencies, radiation dose, exotic reactions, etc

• UKCA-GLOMAP-mode

• Climate version – currently expected Q2 FY14/15

• AQUM operational adoption Q2 FY15/16

• Reduced complexity gas phase and aerosol chemistry

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Routine Verification

Midge forecast

Integrated multi-agency/multi-disciplinary collaborative science and services across all areas

• Increased model linkages/coupling

• Emissions

• Health, built and natural environment impacts

• Greater links to academic community

• BADC – JASMIN capability

• Joint projects

• Further develop agency partnerships

• BOM, MSS, NIWA, IMO, PHE, etc

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Challenges

• Diversity

• Expertise thinly spread, single points of failure,

conflicting/rapidly changing external priorities

• Dependencies

• UKCA, UM

• Resource

• Within team and more broadly

• Code management/development

• Code optimisation, integration, coordination

• Operational pull through

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Questions?

Thank you !