ATLSS Models for Predicting the Impact of Hydrology on Wildlife Populations in

the Everglades Mangrove Zone of

Florida Bay

Jon Cline

University of Tennessee

Overview

• Introduction• Objectives • The Ecology • The Model• On-going

Development

ATLSS Objectives

The ATLSS (Across Trophic Level System Simulation) hierarchy of models is designed to utilize varying levels of detail and data availability to assess the relative impact of alternative hydrological plans on the biotic components of South Florida.

ATLSS is being used regularly in the ongoing planning for Everglades restoration (see http://atlss.org/).

Radio-telemetryTracking Tools

Abiotic Conditions Models

Spatially-Explicit Species Index Models

Linked Cell Models

Process Models

Age/Size Structured Models

Individual-Based Models

High Resolution Freshwater Hydrology

High Resolution Topography

Disturbance

Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow

Snail Kite

Long-legged Wading Birds

Short-legged Wading Birds

White-tailed Deer

Alligators

Lower Trophic Level Components Vegetation

Estuarine Fish Functional Groups

Alligators

Reptiles and Amphibians

White-tailed Deer

Florida Panther

Snail Kite

Wading Birds

© TIEM / University of Tennessee 1999

Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow

Crocodiles

High Resolution SICS Hydrologyand Salinity

Freshwater Fish Functional Groups

Estuarine Component Dependencies

Manatees

Introduction

• ATLSS models of fish and wildlife populations in the mangrove zone– Small estuarine fish (ALFISHES)– Crocodile (currently in devlopment)– Wading birds (planned)– Manatees (planned)

• Linking hydrology to population dynamics

Objectives

• The primary objective of ALFISHES is to predict the impact of hydrology on resident fishes of the Everglades mangrove zone of Florida bay.

• The ultimate goal of the model is use these predictions of fish biomass to assess the availability of prey base fish to wading birds and crocodiles.

The Ecology: The Habitat

• The creeks and flats of the Mangrove zone.

• Seasonal flooding• Changes in bay level

The Ecology: Hypotheses

• The resident fish biomass is negatively impacted by saline period due to reduced food availability

• The resulting fish community is less robust than the historic one

Mean Biomass

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Freshwater Transitional Oligohaline Mesohaline Polyhaline

Salinity Cluster

Log g/m2

A

B

C

C

D

The Model Landscape• Greater Everglades

into several sub-regions

• The estuarine fish model includes two sub-regions– E. Panhandle ME and

– LP Key/STS ME

The Model Landscape with SICS Model Area Overlay

The Model LandscapeHydrology Southern Inland Coastal

Systems (SICS) numerical model (Swain 1999)

Vegetation Florida Gap Analysis Map (FGAP v6.6)

Topography ATLSS High Resolution Topography (HRT)

The Model Landscape

• 500×500 meter cells• Physical factors (per

cell)– Water depth

– Salinity

– microhabitat

On-going Development

• Develop a single cell version of the model based on hydrology and elevation data collected at four field sites

• Extend the HRT model to include the Everglades mangrove ecotone

• Incorporate SICS model hydrology data into the landscape fish model