ASX Investor Hour · ASX Investor Hour DISCLAIMER: The following material was presented at ASX Investor Hour. The views, opinions or recommendations of the presenter are solely those

ASX Investor Hour

DISCLAIMER: The following material was presented at ASX Investor Hour.

The views, opinions or recommendations of the presenter are solely those of the presenter and do not in any way reflect the views, opinions, recommendations, of ASX Limited ABN 98 008 624 691 and its related bodies corporate (“ASX”).

ASX makes no representation or warranty with respect to the accuracy, completeness or currency of the content. The content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Independent advice should be obtained from an Australian financial services licensee before making investment decisions. To the extent permitted by law, ASX and its employees, officers and contractors shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising in any way (including by way of negligence) from or in connection with any information provided or omitted or from any one acting or refraining to act in reliance on this information.

Presenter: Jim Berg, authorTopic: When you should reinvest and how you should do itDate: 7 December 2011Location: Melbourne Investor Hour

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JIM BERG

Jim Berg

Bull or Bear?When you should reinvest and how you should do it

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Bull or Bear? ASX 2011DISCLAIMER

Any projections made in this presentation are estimates only and no guarantee is provided that those projections will be realized. STE, Avestra and its officers, employees, agents, associates and alliance partners (“Associates”) may have or may obtain an interest in the securities referred to in this presentation and will receive commissions, brokerage and other fees from dealing in the securities or advising in respect of the proposed listing of the securities.

STE believe that the information contained in this presentation was accurate at the time it was compiled. STE and Avestra do not warrant that the information contained in this presentation is accurate, complete, reliable or up to date and to the fullest extent permitted by law disclaims all liability of STE, Avestra and their Associates for any loss or damage suffered by any person by reason of the use by that person of, or their reliance on any information contained herein, whether arising from the negligence of STE, Avestra or its Associates or otherwise.

Past performance is no indication of future performance.

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BIG Picture “Trade with the Trend”

TOOLS :

Indices: ASX200 (XJO)ASX200 Financials (XXJ)S&P500 ($SPX) + Housing & BanksShanghai Composite ($SC)Advances – Declining Issues (XTO_AD)

Indicators:Moving Average Pivot Points

All Ords

4 Yrs.

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“Trade with the Trend”

Trends, like sail boats in a strong wind, are easier to ride in the direction they are going.

Identify The Trend

Falling Trend

ASX200

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Rising Trend ?

All Ords

GFC Bear

Rising Trend ?

ASX200

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BILLABONG (BBG)

WEEKLY CHART

COAL & ALLIED

Rising Trend

Rising Trend ?

Rising Trend

12/06/2009

ASX200

12/06/2009

Rising Trend

Rising Trend ?

ASX200

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WEEKLY CHART

NEPTUNE MARINE

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NEPTUNE MARINE

DELISTED

Falling Trend

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All Ords

ASX100 Advance-Decline (XTO_AD)

Divergence

Falling Trend

2007-08

All Ords

ASX Financials (XXJ)

Falling Trend

Falling Trend

2007-08

All Ords

Divergence


2009-10

All Ords

Divergence

ASX100 Advance/Decline (XTO_AD)

2009-10

All Ords Divergence


Falling Trend

Falling Trend

2011

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ASX 200 Index (XJO)

Where are We Now?

• All Ordinaries Index (XAO)

• ASX200 Financials-x-REITS Sector (XXJ)

• S&P 500 Index ($SPX)

• PHLX Bank Index ($BKX)

• Shanghai Index ($SC)

All Ords Index (XAO)

ASX200 Financials-x-REIT (XXJ)

S&P 500 Index ($SPX)

PHLX Bank Index ($BKX)

Shanghai Index ($SC)

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MENTOR - Questions

1) Teach :How markets workIndicatorsMultiple trading strategies* Tied to Software & Data - BEWARE

2) One comprehensive rule based trading system?

3) Do they trade that system & publish results?

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JB Trading

• WHAT shares to TradeCreating a WatchlistFundamental Analysis

• WHEN to TradeIdentify the Trend

• HOW to TradeEntry and Exit SignalsTechnical Analysis

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FUNDAMENTAL + TECHNICALShort (Daily) & Long Term (Weekly)

INDUSTRY GROUP ANALYSIS – RISING TRENDFUNDAMENTAL SHARE ANALYSISTECHNICAL ANALYSIS

RISING TRENDOVERSOLD ‘ALERT’ SIGNALVOLATILITY ENTRY SIGNALPOSITION MANAGEMENT

JB Trading

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WHAT SHARES TO TRADECreating a Watchlist

• FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISBroker Recommendations – Yearly PicksSoftware - ‘OracleSCAN’

Fundamental Criteria by SectorHigh YieldPrice Discount to Target Price

Newsletters – Expert Picks Magazines – YTE & AFR Smart InvestorNewspaper- Takeover Targets

• TECHNICAL ANALYSISCharting Software Package – Watch Lists

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JB BOOK

WATCH LISTS:

GLOBAL RECOVERYRESOURCES & ENERGYMINING SERVICESALAN HULL’S PORTFOLIO (10)SMALL CAPSHIGH-YIELDING STOCKSPRICE DISCOUNT TO TARGETJB FUNDAMENTALS

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OracleSCANMkt Cap > 250 mPE Ratio < 25EPS Grth > 5%ROE > 8%Profit Margin > .01

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TRADING STRATEGY

PARTS OF A TRADING SYSTEM :

• SETUP CONDITIONS – Rising Trend (Weekly Chart)

• TIMING OF ENTRY – RSI(7) o/s, JB Volatility Entry

• STOPS :INITIAL – Below the Recent LowTRAILING – JB Volatility Trailing StopJB PROFIT TAKER

• $$ MANAGEMENT - POSITION SIZING

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RSI(7) OVERSOLD ‘ALERT’

RSI COMPARES THEAVERAGE OF RISING PRICE CHANGE TOFALLING PRICE CHANGE

COAL & ALLIED

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CALTEX

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AMCOR



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VOLATILITY ENTRY SIGNALAMCOR

RSI(7) OVERSOLD ‘ALERT’VOLATILITY ENTRY SIGNAL

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Volatility Entry Signal

Close > 2*ATR(10) From Low

Close > 2*($0.20)(10) From ($2.20)

Close > ($0.40) (10) From ($2.20) = $2.60

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JABIRU METALS


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Recent RSI Alerts – ASX300

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BRAMBLES


JB TRAILING STOP

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COAL & ALLIED

BLUE BARVOLATILITY ENTRY


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CALTEX




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Safe Starter Stocks

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Rising Trend

Silver Lake (SLR)Sigma Pharm. (SIP)Resolute Min. (RSG)Regis Res. (RRL)Mesoblast (MSB)

Map Group (MAP)Discovery Met. (DML)Beach Energy (BPT)Aston Res. (AZT)Troy Res. (TRY)

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Sigma Pharmaceuticals

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RSI ‘ALERT’



RSI ‘ALERT’ RSI ‘ALERT’

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Regis Resources


RSI ‘ALERT’

Regis Resources


RSI ‘ALERT’RSI ‘ALERT’

ATAA Adel.

MAP Group


RSI ‘ALERT’ RSI ‘ALERT’

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Long-Term InvestingFrom

Volatility Entries

www.sharetradingeducation.com

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COAL & ALLIED


RSI ‘ALERT’

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ENTRY WEEK

JB TRAILING STOP

WEEKLY CHART

COAL & ALLIED

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CALTEX


RSI ‘ALERT’

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CALTEX

ENTRY WEEK

WEEKLY CHART

JB TRAILING STOP

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OIL SEARCH

RSI ‘ALERT’


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WEEKLY CHART

JB TRAILING STOP

OIL SEARCH

ENTRY WEEK

What Am I Looking For Now?

Industry Groups:

• Banks (XBAJ)• Commercial & Professional Services (XCSJ)• Consumer Services (XSRJ)• Diversified Financials (XDFJ)• Energy (XENJ)• Food & Staples Retailing (XFDJ)• Healthcare Equipment & Services (XHCJ)• Materials (XMAJ)• Pharmaceutical & Biotech (XPBJ)

Consumer Services

Consumer Services

Diversified Financials

Diversified Financials

Health Care Equip. & Serv.

Health Care Equip. & Services

Energy

Energy

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#1: DVD ‘How to Maximise Profits and Minimise Losses’ ($125 value)

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ASX Investor Hour · ASX Investor Hour DISCLAIMER: The following material was presented at ASX Investor Hour. The views, opinions or recommendations of the presenter are solely those