24
ASTEROIDS in the Context of Human Exploration: A Sustainable Path Richard P. Binzel Professor of Planetary Science (MIT)

ASTEROIDS in the Context of Human Exploration: A ... · on asteroids at age 15. He is an author and editor for the past and forthcoming principal textbooks on asteroids spanning three

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    1

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: ASTEROIDS in the Context of Human Exploration: A ... · on asteroids at age 15. He is an author and editor for the past and forthcoming principal textbooks on asteroids spanning three

ASTEROIDS in the Context of Human Exploration:

A Sustainable Path Richard P. Binzel���

Professor of Planetary Science (MIT)

Page 2: ASTEROIDS in the Context of Human Exploration: A ... · on asteroids at age 15. He is an author and editor for the past and forthcoming principal textbooks on asteroids spanning three

House Subcommittee on Space��

Page 3: ASTEROIDS in the Context of Human Exploration: A ... · on asteroids at age 15. He is an author and editor for the past and forthcoming principal textbooks on asteroids spanning three
Page 4: ASTEROIDS in the Context of Human Exploration: A ... · on asteroids at age 15. He is an author and editor for the past and forthcoming principal textbooks on asteroids spanning three

REAL Science and Explorationin the National Interest�

Page 5: ASTEROIDS in the Context of Human Exploration: A ... · on asteroids at age 15. He is an author and editor for the past and forthcoming principal textbooks on asteroids spanning three

REAL Science and Exploration�

Pyramid of planetary exploration.Science 338, 203 (2012)�

Stunt�

Page 6: ASTEROIDS in the Context of Human Exploration: A ... · on asteroids at age 15. He is an author and editor for the past and forthcoming principal textbooks on asteroids spanning three

BuzzwordPyramid�

Key Technologies� Science Benefits�Pre-formulation stage�Planetary Defense� Space Resource Utilization�Flexible Mission Options� Stakeholders�

Significant Advances�Sample�

Precision low-g operations�

Innovate�Astronauts�

MarsMoon�

Space�

Page 7: ASTEROIDS in the Context of Human Exploration: A ... · on asteroids at age 15. He is an author and editor for the past and forthcoming principal textbooks on asteroids spanning three

������������������ ������������ ������������ ��

����������� ����������������"�#��������������� ��!�����������������"�#!�����������������������������������������"������������������ ���������������!�����������������������!����������!#�

������������

������������

��������� �����

���������������

����������!�

������������������ ������������ ������������ ��

������ �� %�)-�����"������������1�2�����&���� � ���� .���%������������ ���1�2.�����������������������������������������1����� ��������������%��� ��� ��������$��.���% �'������&��)����� .����%� �%�.2�

�������������

��%������&������������ ������$���� ��������!���0��&���������������������������������'/�������"���.���0����(���������������"���-�����,�����,��� ������.���0������������ ������ ��)����������������������%����.�

�������������������$!������� ������������! ���0� ����� ������������� ��������"��������&�����'�����,������������%�������� �,���������,����"������*����� ���%"��.���0���������� ���&��������������������������������"��.��� �� � � � � � � � � � �� " �

������������

����&�����������

�����"����'� ��

�� ����% �.�

������������������ ������������ ������������ ��

������ �� %�)-�����"������������1�2�����&���� � ���� .���%������������ ���1�2.�����������������������������������������1����� ��������������%��� ��� ��������$��.���% �'������&��)����� .����%� �%�.2�

�������������

��%������&������������ ������$���� ��������!���0��&���������������������������������'/�������"���.���0����(���������������"���-�����,�����,��� ������.���0������������ ������ ��)����������������������%����.� �����������$��!&��%��%����!���0��� �������"���������� �%��� ����!������&������� .���0������ %��"��������� ����"�������� ����.�

�������������������$!������� ������������! ���0� ����� ������������� ��������"��������&�����'�����,������������%�������� �,���������,����"������*����� ���%"��.���0���������� ���&��������������������������������"��.���0������ %�� )� ��� %�)��%��%������ �������������"��.���0���� ���� ����� )����������%����������������&������� .���0���� �������������&�����������'�� ���������&������� .��

������������

����&�����������

�����"����'� ��

�� ����% �.�

������������������ ������������ ������������ ��

� ���!$��$)�-2��� � &��#!����"���7�8��""�*�#��$�$�"��$3���)���#�#�����#$���7�83�����������������������������������������7� ���$��������������)���$���$���#� ��(��3���)$�+���"��*�"-�#��"$3�� ")#$�)#38�

���!���������

��%������&������������ ������$���� ��������!���6�*�"� ������������#� ��!"���#� ��� +5�� !�"�& �#3���6����,�������##� �� !& �#2�� �1���"#1��#$�" ��#3���6��!!��������$ �����$�"-������#�������!������# )"��#3� �����������$��!&��%��%����!���6���$��#����& ��������#$")���$�!��% "����*�� !���$3���6�!! "$)��&�#�� "���$�"��& ����!�"$��"#3�

�$��������������!�)� !���������������! ���6���)��& ���2� !)��"���"$����&*�$-�$"��#��$���$ �#!���3���6�������#$�����#����� �$�#$3���)��� "�$���+� ��������-0���6�� ���"����� !! "$)��&�#1�����)�����#!����$ )"�#�3����6��)$)"��#����#�+�$���� ����#!������#$��3�

$����! ������������%�"��(�����4������!��������#����#�)�&���������������#������ �3��

�����#�)�!$)"���������"���$2�#)����"�+3� ��

�������������������$!������� ������������! ���6�����"#$�������"�� ��$��!" !�"&�#� ����*�"#��+ "��#1������������)�������!$�1�� ��#� �1�!�"&����#�.����#$"��)& �3���6����������$���*����#����#��!���#���������!�����&�#3���6�!! "$)��$-�$ �#$)�-�#)�#)"�����$��"����!" !�"&�#3���6���#$���#$�����$-��#������#)"�� ��#��#������*�" ����$3���6���#$����" #� ��"�*���#�� ����+��$��"������*�" ����$3��

��!����"%��&(� ��* ��$�� �� ����� ����� !�$�� +�$��������� �� ����&*�#�#�"*����$�����& ������$�"�#$�$�" )����" ���-���*�� !���������������)��-����������� ��#3�

��� ����� ��

�� �*�����������

�����& �#�+�$��

�#$" ��)$#3�

��#�� �)���$��#���!�" �-1�� $������$)���� ���!$�#$)�-�� "�!" ! #����-���-������-� "� "����.�& �3�

������������������ ������������ ������������ ��

� ���!$��$)�-2��� � &��#!����"���7�8��""�*�#��$�$�"��$3���)���#�#�����#$���7�83�����������������������������������������7� ���$��������������)���$���$���#� ��(��3���)$�+���"��*�"-�#��"$3�� ")#$�)#38�

���!���������

��%������&������������ ������$���� ��������!���6�*�"� ������������#� ��!"���#� ��� +5�� !�"�& �#3���6����,�������##� �� !& �#2�� �1���"#1��#$�" ��#3���6��!!��������$ �����$�"-������#�������!������# )"��#3� �����������$��!&��%��%����!���6���$��#����& ��������#$")���$�!��% "����*�� !���$3���6�!! "$)��&�#�� "���$�"��& ����!�"$��"#3�

�$��������������!�)� !���������������! ���6���)��& ���2� !)��"���"$����&*�$-�$"��#��$���$ �#!���3���6�������#$�����#����� �$�#$3���)��� "�$���+� ��������-0���6�� ���"����� !! "$)��&�#1�����)�����#!����$ )"�#�3����6��)$)"��#����#�+�$���� ����#!������#$��3�

$����! ������������%�"��(�����4������!��������#����#�)�&���������������#������ �3��

�����#�)�!$)"���������"���$2�#)����"�+3� ��

�������������������$!������� ������������! ���6�����"#$�������"�� ��$��!" !�"&�#� ����*�"#��+ "��#1������������)�������!$�1�� ��#� �1�!�"&����#�.����#$"��)& �3���6����������$���*����#����#��!���#���������!�����&�#3���6�!! "$)��$-�$ �#$)�-�#)�#)"�����$��"����!" !�"&�#3���6���#$���#$�����$-��#������#)"�� ��#��#������*�" ����$3���6���#$����" #� ��"�*���#�� ����+��$��"������*�" ����$3��

��!����"%��&(� ��* ��$�� �� ����� ����� !�$�� +�$��������� �� ����&*�#�#�"*����$�����& ������$�"�#$�$�" )����" ���-���*�� !���������������)��-����������� ��#3�

��� ����� ��

�� �*�����������

�����& �#�+�$��

�#$" ��)$#3�

��#�� �)���$��#���!�" �-1�� $������$)���� ���!$�#$)�-�� "�!" ! #����-���-������-� "� "����.�& �3�

Page 8: ASTEROIDS in the Context of Human Exploration: A ... · on asteroids at age 15. He is an author and editor for the past and forthcoming principal textbooks on asteroids spanning three

“But… Apollo was not about science”� Different�

Era�

Page 9: ASTEROIDS in the Context of Human Exploration: A ... · on asteroids at age 15. He is an author and editor for the past and forthcoming principal textbooks on asteroids spanning three

“But… Many scientists alsodecried Apollo. But look athow the science advanced !”�

Lunar Samples:�Transformative Science�

• Planetary scale�• Geology, geophysics �• Early formation processes �• No previous samples�

ARM Samples:�• Incremental science, at best�• Irrational for human risk�

Moon: 3475 km 7.4 x 1022 kg �ARM Target: 10 m 1.6 x 106 kg �

RATIO: 3x10-6 2x10-17 �

Page 10: ASTEROIDS in the Context of Human Exploration: A ... · on asteroids at age 15. He is an author and editor for the past and forthcoming principal textbooks on asteroids spanning three

What does this have to do withhumans on Mars ???

The impact hazard ???10m ARM target is 1/100th massof Chelyabinsk.

4-6 tonsdelivered “free”

10 meters = 0.1 pixel

“It’s not a science mission, so . . .”“It’s still pre-formative, so . . .”

Page 11: ASTEROIDS in the Context of Human Exploration: A ... · on asteroids at age 15. He is an author and editor for the past and forthcoming principal textbooks on asteroids spanning three

“It’s not our money, it’s HEO MD.”�Zero sum

game

Page 12: ASTEROIDS in the Context of Human Exploration: A ... · on asteroids at age 15. He is an author and editor for the past and forthcoming principal textbooks on asteroids spanning three

Just say no:�“One-and-done” stunt

will irreparably damage small body exploration.�

Converging To a Sustainable Path�

Retrieval�

Page 13: ASTEROIDS in the Context of Human Exploration: A ... · on asteroids at age 15. He is an author and editor for the past and forthcoming principal textbooks on asteroids spanning three

Just say no:�“One-and-done” stunt

will irreparably damage small body exploration.�

Converging To a Sustainable Path�

• There are alternative non-retrieval paths that move the overall program forward.�

Page 14: ASTEROIDS in the Context of Human Exploration: A ... · on asteroids at age 15. He is an author and editor for the past and forthcoming principal textbooks on asteroids spanning three

Converging To a Sustainable Path�

- Not sustainable, one-and-done “stunt”.�- No benefit to astronauts.�- Science not compelling.- Impact hazard relevance??�- Path to Mars relevance???�

ARM�

- SEP delivers supply module to cis-lunar space.�

- Enables extended missions.�

- Rendezvous benefits astronauts, crew health and safety.�

“True” path to Mars.�

“Oasis”�SEP Alternative�

Stunt�

“Boring?”�

Page 15: ASTEROIDS in the Context of Human Exploration: A ... · on asteroids at age 15. He is an author and editor for the past and forthcoming principal textbooks on asteroids spanning three

Figure 1.9�

So, how do asteroids fit in ?�

Page 16: ASTEROIDS in the Context of Human Exploration: A ... · on asteroids at age 15. He is an author and editor for the past and forthcoming principal textbooks on asteroids spanning three

Red points are NASA’s own data,omitted from NRC report.�

Asteroids in their native orbitsare abundant on the path to Mars�

Figure 1.9�

Page 17: ASTEROIDS in the Context of Human Exploration: A ... · on asteroids at age 15. He is an author and editor for the past and forthcoming principal textbooks on asteroids spanning three

The numbers:�A 10-meter object strikes the Earth at least �once per fifty years. (NRC NEO Hazard report.)50 years x 12 months/year = 600 months.��Cross-section of impact plane out to lunar distance �is 3600 times the cross-section area of Earth.��3600 cross section area / 600 months = 6 per month�

FACT: �A 10-meter sized object traverses

cis-lunar space every week.�

Asteroids in their native orbits:How abundant are they ?�

Oh, howembarrassing!�

Page 18: ASTEROIDS in the Context of Human Exploration: A ... · on asteroids at age 15. He is an author and editor for the past and forthcoming principal textbooks on asteroids spanning three

FACT: �A 10-meter sized object traverses

cis-lunar space every week.�

Heaven forbid . . . an astronaut dies pulling a rock out of the baggie.�Who is going to defend why that sample required the risk of human life?�

Page 19: ASTEROIDS in the Context of Human Exploration: A ... · on asteroids at age 15. He is an author and editor for the past and forthcoming principal textbooks on asteroids spanning three

Two Steps To a Sustainable Path�

#1 � Thorough

Surveys�

FACT:�99.9% of accessible 10 meter

asteroids remain undiscovered. �

Page 20: ASTEROIDS in the Context of Human Exploration: A ... · on asteroids at age 15. He is an author and editor for the past and forthcoming principal textbooks on asteroids spanning three

ExtendHuman

Capability�

Converging To a Sustainable Path�

• Also addresses the hazard survey imperative.�

• Provides abundant targets in their native orbits.�

Survey First! �

“True” PathTo Mars �

(Competitively selected. Equivalent to Discovery

or New Frontiers.)�

A future path for asteroids as “stepping stones”

becomes inherently sustainable.�

Bring forth survey asdirect outcome of

Grand Challenge.�

(patience, please)�

Page 21: ASTEROIDS in the Context of Human Exploration: A ... · on asteroids at age 15. He is an author and editor for the past and forthcoming principal textbooks on asteroids spanning three

Keep saying�“YES”�

• Like it or not, ARM is a small bodies mission.�• Ultimate ARM decision is above SBAG pay grade.�• SBAG can (must ) give its candid assessment. (H.R. 4412)�

(patience, please)�• Advocating for survey is in SBAG purview.�

Summary:�

• Advocating for a sustainable path in small body explor- ation is in SBAG purview.�

• Advocating for compelling, prioritized science is SBAG’s responsibility*.�* “neutrality is complicity”�

*�

• Abundant native targets obviates retrieval architecture.�• Invest in SURVEY, not in retrieval architecture.�

Page 22: ASTEROIDS in the Context of Human Exploration: A ... · on asteroids at age 15. He is an author and editor for the past and forthcoming principal textbooks on asteroids spanning three

Keep saying�“YES”�

(patience, please)�• Advocating for survey is in SBAG purview.�

• Advocating for a sustainable path in small body explor- ation is in SBAG purview.�

• Advocating for compelling, prioritized science is SBAG’s responsibility*.�

• Abundant native targets obviates retrieval architecture.�• Invest in SURVEY, not in retrieval architecture.�

Sustainabilityfor humans at asteroids:�

Requires a slower pathdriven by “Survey First.”�

Credit: W. K. Hartmann�

Page 23: ASTEROIDS in the Context of Human Exploration: A ... · on asteroids at age 15. He is an author and editor for the past and forthcoming principal textbooks on asteroids spanning three

• SBAG finds for the ARM that neither the purported science benefits nor the claimed relevance to planetary defense meaningfully advance the strategic objectives and science priorities outlined in the most recent planetary decadal survey. ��• The contended merits of ARM do not justify the investment or the substantial risks required to execute the mission. ��• We also express deep reservations regarding the potential loss of prioritized small bodies science or broader planetary science opportunities given the zero-sum nature of the NASA budget.���• Dedicated surveys will reveal an abundant population of accessible asteroids in their native orbits, providing ample destinations for future exploration.��• Abundant targets in native orbits obviates need for retrieval. Invest in survey, not in retrieval.�

Page 24: ASTEROIDS in the Context of Human Exploration: A ... · on asteroids at age 15. He is an author and editor for the past and forthcoming principal textbooks on asteroids spanning three

Richard P. Binzel is a world authority on asteroids and their exploration.  He is a Professor of Planetary Science, for 25 years, at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.  He has a 40-year track record of publications on asteroids, publishing his first scientific paper on asteroids at age 15.  He is an author and editor for the past and forthcoming principal textbooks on asteroids spanning three decades within the University of Arizona Press Space Science Series.

Author Lead Editor Co-Editor Asteroids IV (2015) 1979 1989 2002 (General Editor)