Association of Metropolitan School DistrictsDecember 19, 2008

Dr. Mark Bezek

Superintendent

Minnesota’s fastest growing school district

Exploding to Imploding

Area

• Five counties

• 16 municipalities

• 174.3 square miles

Size

• Ninth largest district in state

• 12,500+ Pre-K12 learners

• 62,000+ total learners

Who we are…

Community demographics

• Average age: 31

• 27 percent under 18-years-old

• Average income: $68,008

• 70 percent are commuters

• 90 percent have a high school education

Who we are…

Where we’ve been…

Elk River Area School District K-12 October 1 Student Enrollment

Historic and Projected*

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

15000

199

6-9

7

199

7-9

8

199

8-9

9

199

9-0

0

200

0-0

1

200

1-0

2

200

2-0

3

200

3-0

4

200

4-0

5

200

5-0

6

200

6-0

7

200

7-0

8

200

8-0

9*

200

9-1

0*

201

0-1

1*

201

1-1

2*

• From 2002 to 2007, district enrollment increased by 2,583 students.

• No district in the state added more students during this period. • The increase is more than the total enrollment of almost 80 percent of all school districts in Minnesota.

• Growth equivalent to FOUR LARGE ELEMENTAY schools.

• Voters did not support bond in 2007.

• Outlook for future bond is not optimistic

Where we’ve been…explosive growth

Where we are…Elk River Area School District

K-12 October 1 Student EnrollmentHistoric and Projected*

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

15000

199

6-9

7

199

7-9

8

199

8-9

9

199

9-0

0

200

0-0

1

200

1-0

2

200

2-0

3

200

3-0

4

200

4-0

5

200

5-0

6

200

6-0

7

200

7-0

8

200

8-0

9*

200

9-1

0*

201

0-1

1*

201

1-1

2*

Where we are…

• Current average class sizes

Average MaxKindergarten: 24 (24)Grades 1 – 5: 26 (35)Grades 6 – 8: 32 (37)Grades 9 – 12: 32 (39)

• With “Leveled Growth”• We will still need to spend $1.2 million annually to avoid increasing our current class sizes.

• Current average class sizes

Average MaxKindergarten: 24 (24)Grades 1 – 5: 26 (35)Grades 6 – 8: 32 (37)Grades 9 – 12: 32 (39)

• With “Leveled Growth”• We will still need to spend $1.2 million annually to avoid increasing our current class sizes.

Where we are…

Budget challenges

• Flat enrollment and faltering economy equals cuts of up to $5 million (4.67 percent) next FY.

• Preliminary analysis…if trend continues $12 million will need to be cut in the next two years.

• Levy renewal passed in 2008…next is 2011…voter tolerance?

• Bond and referenda unlikely in the next three to five years.

Budget challenges

• Flat enrollment and faltering economy equals cuts of up to $5 million (4.67 percent) next FY.

• Preliminary analysis…if trend continues $12 million will need to be cut in the next two years.

• Levy renewal passed in 2008…next is 2011…voter tolerance?

• Bond and referenda unlikely in the next three to five years.

Where we are…

Sherburne and Wright County Housing Trends: 2003 - 2008

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Homes Built Foreclosures

Sherburne and Wright County Housing Trends: 2003 - 2008

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Homes Built Foreclosures

Where we are…

• We are near the bottom of the 25 largest school districts in Minnesota

in referendum funding.

• We are near the bottom of Metropolitan School Districts in excess levy referendum funding.

• Of the 25 largest school districts in the state, we receive the lowest amount of TOTAL Fund 01 dollars per student (ADM).

• Put another way, we receive $1,000 less (= $12.5 million) than large school districts and the state average.

• We are near the bottom of the 25 largest school districts in Minnesota

in referendum funding.

• We are near the bottom of Metropolitan School Districts in excess levy referendum funding.

• Of the 25 largest school districts in the state, we receive the lowest amount of TOTAL Fund 01 dollars per student (ADM).

• Put another way, we receive $1,000 less (= $12.5 million) than large school districts and the state average.

Where we are…

Of the 25 largest school districts in the state:

• We receive the lowest amount of Fund 01 (Excess Levy) dollars per student (ADM) from local sources.

• $750 less than the large district average and about $400 less than the state average.

• We rank second in the dollars per student spent on debt service.• $1,643 per student (ADM).

• More than $600 higher than the large district average and state average.

Of the 25 largest school districts in the state:

• We receive the lowest amount of Fund 01 (Excess Levy) dollars per student (ADM) from local sources.

• $750 less than the large district average and about $400 less than the state average.

• We rank second in the dollars per student spent on debt service.• $1,643 per student (ADM).

• More than $600 higher than the large district average and state average.

We’re heading for an implosionELK RIVER AREA SCHOOL DISTRICT

PROJECTED DEFICITS

($12,000,000)

($9,000,000)

($6,000,000)

($3,000,000)

$02008-09 2009-10 2010-11

Best Case Probable Case Worst Case

Don’t let us implode