Upload
others
View
0
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Beyond 2020: The Challenge of Greenhouse Gas
Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
March 16, 2015
Comments on the Draft Whitepaper will be accepted through May 23, 2015. Comments
can be email to: [email protected]
Association of Environmental Professionals (AEP)
This page is purposely left blank
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
March 2015
AEP White Paper 1
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas 2
Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California 3
(V7,03/18/15)4
PreparedbymembersoftheAEPClimateChangeCommittee.TheAEPClimateChangeCommittee5consistsofleadersofclimateactionplanningpracticesfromconsultingfirmsthathaveleadmanyofthe6localgreenhousegasreductionplanningeffortsacrossCalifornia.TheCommitteefocusesonadvancing7theprofessionalpracticeoflocalclimateactionplanningthroughperiodicpublicationofwhitepapers8andconferencepresentations,aswellasinteractionwithstate,regionalandlocalagencies.9
AEPWhitePaperManagement10MichaelHendrix,ProjectDirector11NicoleVermilion,ProjectManager12
LeadAuthor13RichWalter(ICFInternational)14
ContributingAuthors15NicoleVermilion(PlaceWorks)16DaveMitchell(FirstCarbonSolutions)17CherylLaskowski,Ph.D.(Atkins)18ChrisGrey(Fehr&Peers)19
Technical Reviewer 20TerryRivasplata(ICFInternational)21
Editor22SusanScharf23
AEPClimateChangeCommittee24MichaelHendrix,Chair25ChrisGray26CherylLaskowski,Ph.D.27DaveMitchell28TammySeale29NicoleVermilion30RichWalter31
AEPExecutiveBoard32GeneTalmadge(President)33DevonMuto(ExecutiveVicePresident)34ChristinaRyan(AdministrativeVicePresident)35LynnCalvert‐Hayes(FinancialVicePresidentandCFO)36
Theviewsexpressedinthispaperarethepersonalopinionsoftheauthorsanddonotrepresentthe37opinionsorjudgmentoftheirrespectivefirmsorofAEP.3839
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
March 2015
Table of Contents 1
2
ExecutiveSummary....................................................................................................................................................................13I.Introduction...............................................................................................................................................................................74
ProblemDefinition.............................................................................................................................................................75Progressvs.Perfection.....................................................................................................................................................96BeCarefulWhatYouWishFor:TheLimitationsandPerilsofCEQA...........................................................97SlowandSteadyWinstheRace.................................................................................................................................108
II.ClimateScienceBackground..........................................................................................................................................119III.RegulatorySetting.............................................................................................................................................................1210
Legislation,RegulationandOtherGuidelines.....................................................................................................1211RecentSanDiegoCEQACourtRulings....................................................................................................................1712
IV.The2050ReductionChallenge....................................................................................................................................20132050Scenarios..................................................................................................................................................................2014LocalClimateActionPlanningExamplesbeyond2020..................................................................................2915ExamplesfromOutsideCalifornia............................................................................................................................3216
V.CEQA,GeneralPlans,andClimateActionPlansforthePost‐2020Horizon..............................................3517CEQAProjectAnalysisinaPost‐2020World......................................................................................................3518GeneralPlansinaPost‐2020World........................................................................................................................3919ClimateActionPlansinaPost‐2020World..........................................................................................................4020
VI.Recommendations.............................................................................................................................................................5221TheRoleofCEQAinaPost‐2020World................................................................................................................5222TheRoleofGeneralPlansinaPost‐2020World...............................................................................................5423TheRoleofClimateActionPlansinaPost‐2020World.................................................................................5624
VII.References...........................................................................................................................................................................592526
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 1 March 2015
Executive Summary 1
Rich Walter, ICF International 2
The Post‐2020 Challenge for Climate Action Planning in California 3
Localgreenhousegas(GHG)reductionplanningbyCalifornia’scitiesandcountieshasbeen4primarilyfocusedonadoptinglocalmeasuresthataresupportiveofreachingtheGHGreduction5targetestablishedinTheGlobalWarmingSolutionsActof2006(AssemblyBill(AB)32),whichcalls6forreducingemissionsto1990levelsbytheyear2020.Similarly,GHGanalysisandmitigationfor7discretionaryprojectsreviewedundertheCaliforniaEnvironmentalQualityAct(CEQA)hasbeen8conductedundertherubricofthresholdsthatarebasedonconsistencywiththeAB32reduction9targetfor2020.10
AB32isonlyastartforGHGreductionplanninggiventhatthelong‐termglobalimperativetolimit11themoreextremeeffectsofglobalwarmingonclimatechangewillrequiremuchmoresubstantial12reductionsthanrequiredbyAB32.Somenationalgovernmentshaveidentifiedalong‐termgoalto13reducetheir2050emissionstoalevel80percentbelow1990levels.Thisgoalisreflectedin14GovernorSchwarzenegger’sExecutiveOrder(EO)S‐03‐05,althoughnotthroughlegislationtodate.15As2020approaches,Californialegislativeattentionisstartingtoturntothepost‐2020period.In16addition,legalchallengesbroughtunderCEQAtotheSanDiegoAssociationofGovernments17(SANDAG)RegionalTransportationPlan/SustainableCommunitiesStrategy(RTP/SCS)andtheSan18DiegoCountyClimateActionPlan(CAP)1havesuccessfullyraisedconsistencywiththeEOS‐03‐05192050goalasanissueforCEQAreview.20
In2008,theCaliforniaAirResourcesBoard(ARB)adoptedaScopingPlanthatdetailedthemain21strategiesCaliforniawouldusetoachievetheAB322020target,andfromwhichlocaljurisdictions22couldidentifytheirroleinemissionsreductionthrough2020.However,therearenotrueGHG23reductionplansanywhereintheworldthathaveadoptedenforceablemeasurestomeetthe24ambitious2050targets.Thus,ifcitiesandcountiesinCaliforniaintendtoprepareGHGreduction25plansandconductCEQAanalysisofprojectswithemissionsthatgobeyond2020outto2050,they26willfacesubstantialchallengeswithlong‐termemissionsforecasting,regulatoryuncertainty,27reductiontargetdetermination,fair‐sharemitigationdetermination,andfeasibility.28
BasedonresearchintopathwaystodeepGHGemissionsreductionsby2050,thechangesneeded29statewidearesubstantialandsevereandwouldrequirefundamentalchangesinCalifornia'senergy30system,manyofwhichareoutsidethejurisdictionofindividualcitiesandcounties.Scenario31analysisandacasestudypresentedinthispaperhighlighthowachievingdeepGHGemission32reductionswithinCaliforniawillrequireacoordinatedeffortacrossallsectorsoftheeconomy.In33nearlyallthedeepreductionscenarios,therateoftransition—suchasdeploymentofbetter34vehicles,orrenewableelectricity—farexceedsthehistoricalrateofchangeinCalifornia(State)to35date.Thisaddsameasureofuncertaintyforlocaljurisdictionsseekingtounderstandtheirrolein36GHGreductionswithinacontextofshiftingtechnologies,energy/technologyprices,andregulations.37
1“ClimateActionPlan”or“CAP”isatermofartcommonlyusedtorefertoalocalgreenhousegasreductionplan.SomeCAPsalsoincludeaplanforadaptationtoexpectedclimatechange.Somejurisdictionsuse“GreenhouseGasReductionPlan”instead.Inthiswhitepaperthetermsareusedinterchangeableinrelationtogreenhousegasreductions.
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 2 March 2015
Giventheseuncertainties—whichincreaseasoneproceedsfrom2020outto2050—localGHG1reductionplanningwillneedtoincludearangeofpotentialscenariostohelpcivicentitiesbetter2understandthevaryingroleoflocalGHGreductionscomparedtoGHGreductionsfromStateand3federalpolicy.4
The Role of CEQA 5
TheCEQAGuidelinesoffertwopathstoevaluatingGHGemissionsimpactsinCEQAdocuments:6
Projectscantieroffa“qualified”GHGReductionPlanthatestablishesthresholdsof7significance(CEQAGuidelinesSection15183.5)8
ProjectscandeterminesignificancebyutilizingamodeltocalculateGHGemissionsandassess9theirsignificance(CEQAGuidelinesSection15064.4)10
ThereductiontargetembodiedinAB32for2020isthemostcommonthreadamongthe11significancethresholdsdevelopedtodate.AB32andARB’s2008AB32ScopingPlanprovidea12state‐levelplanforachievingthestatewideGHGemissionstargetfor2020.Theproject‐levelCEQA13significancethresholdutilizedbyleadagencieswillneedtobeupdatedtoaddresspost‐202014targets.ThelogicaltimingforupdatingthresholdswillbewhentheStateadoptsitsfirstpost‐202015legislatedreductiontarget,andwhenARBhasdevelopedastatewideplantoachievetheadopted16target.17
ThispapermakesthefollowingrecommendationsconcerningCEQA:18
LimitCEQAGHGAnalysistotheStateGHGPlanningHorizonbasedonaState19LegislativelyMandatedTarget.Thispaperpresentssubstantialevidencefortheinfeasibility20foralocaljurisdictiontomeetthe80percentbelow1990levelsby2050inthenear‐to‐21mediumtermabsentarealpost‐2020Stateplanofaction.Thus,requiringcompliancewith22the2050goalinEOS‐03‐05asadefactosignificancethresholdinCEQAdocumentsis23impractical.Nothingisservedbyestablishinganimpossiblethresholdoranalyzingimpactsso24farinthefuturethattheyrequiresubstantialspeculation.Instead,thelimitofGHGanalysisfor25CEQAdocumentsshouldbethecurrentStateGHGplanninghorizon.Atpresent,theonlytrue26StatereductionplanistheAB32ScopingPlan,whichonlyhasaverifiedandquantified27reductionplanto2020.OncetheStatehasadefinedplanfor2030,thenCEQAanalysisand28thresholdsshouldshiftfromthecurrent2020horizontothe2030horizon.Whenapost‐203029planisineffect,thehorizonshouldshiftagain.30
Establish"SubstantialProgress"astheCEQAsignificancecriteria.Allthethresholdsused31inCEQAdocumentsinCaliforniaandallqualifiedGHGreductionplansusedforCEQAtiering32arebasedonmeetingorexceedingthereductiontargetsinAB32requiringoverallState33reductionsto1990levelsby2020.TherearenolocalGHGreductionplansthathaveanactual34plantomeeta2050targetof80percentbelow1990levels.Thispaperrecommendsthat35AppendixGoftheCEQAGuidelinesbeamendedtoprovidethefollowingnewCEQA36significancethresholdforGHGemissions:37
“Doestheprojectimpedesubstantialprogressinlocal,regional,andStateGHGemissions38reductionsovertimetowardlong‐termGHGreductiontargetsadoptedbytheState39Legislature?”40
AllowCEQATieringfromGHGReductionPlansthatmake“SubstantialProgress”in41ReducingGHGEmissions.Therecent(2014)SanDiegocourtrulingshavethepotentialto42
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 3 March 2015
deterlocaljurisdictionsfrompreparingandimplementingGHGreductionplansbecause,1effectively,therulingstookawaythe“carrot”forCEQAstreamlining,andcreatedtoomuch2uncertainty.TopromoteCEQAstreamliningandencouragelocalagenciestoprepareGHG3reductionplansforcommunitywideGHGemissions,legislationshouldrequirethatCEQA4GuidelinesSection15183.5beamendedtoallowfortieringoffGHGReductionPlansthat5make“substantialprogress”towardreducingGHGemissionsonapathtowardlong‐term6reductiontargets,withoutrequiringsuchplanstomeeta2050reductiontarget.Thisconcept7isnotnewandissimilartothelanguagereferringtotieringoffinfilldevelopmentsusing8developmentstandardsthat“substantiallymitigate”impactsaddedtotheCEQAGuidelines9underSenateBill226(SB226).10
AllowPartialCEQAExemptionforCAPs.ThereisnoexemptionorstreamliningforClimate11ActionPlans(CAPs)underCEQA.TheanalysiswithintheCEQAdocumentsassociatedwith12CAPsisusuallyhighlyprogrammaticandnon‐locationspecific,meaningthatthoseCAP13elementswhichdoresultinpotentiallysignificantenvironmentalimpactswouldstillrequirea14project‐levelCEQAdocumentregardlessoftheprogrammaticlevelanalysis.Abetterplanning15approachwouldbetoprovideapartialCEQAexemptionfortheCAPadoption.Thisshouldbe16astatutoryexemptionlimitingthescopeofCEQAcompliancetoaddressingGHGemissions17only,andwouldeliminatetheneedtoanalyzeotherenvironmentalimpactsatthe18programmaticlevel,whilemandatingCEQAevaluationontheproject‐levelelementsfromthe19CAPthatmayhaveenvironmentaleffectsoftheirown.ThiswouldretaintheabilityforCEQA20tieringfromaqualifiedGHGreductionplan,andwouldeliminateanimpedimenttolocalCAP21developmentwhilestillensuringthatprojectlevelsecondaryenvironmentalimpactsarefully22disclosedandmitigated,asrequiredbyCEQAcompliance.23
HowthentoanalyzeGHGemissionsinCEQAdocumentsforthepost‐2020world?Pragmatically,24thiscanbebrokendownintoseveraldifferenteras.Thesuggestedapproacheswoulddependupon25theStateenactingenablinglegislationalongthefollowinglines:26
TheUncertainInterim:FromSanDiegorulings(2014)to“AB32+1”tothe“AB32+1”27ScopingPlan28
Forgeneralplansandmulti‐phaselargeprojectswithpost‐2020phaseddevelopment,CEQA29analysesneedtoconsiderconsistencywiththe2020/AB32basedframework,butalso30analyzetheconsequencesofpost‐2020GHGemissionsintermsoftheirimpactsonthe31reductiontrajectoryfrom2020toward2050.Asignificancedetermination,asarguedinthis32paper,shouldbebasedonconsistencywith“substantialprogress”alongapost‐202033trajectory,butshouldnotbebasedonmeetingthe2050target.34
CEQAanalysisformostlanduseprojectscancontinuetorelyonthecurrentthresholdsand35currentCAPswith2020horizonsfortheimmediatefuture,especiallyifthereisactionby36theStatelegislatureandARBinthenextfewyears.Thecloserwecometo2020without37legislativeandARBactiononthepost‐2020targetsandplanning,themoreCEQAproject38analysiswillneedtoanalyzepost‐2020emissionsconsistentwith“substantialprogress”39alongapost‐2020reductiontrajectorytowardmeetingthe2050target.40
TheNextNormal:With“AB32+1”andan“AB32+1”ScopingPlan41
WhentheLegislatureadoptsapost‐2020targetandARBdevelopsadetailed,specific,and42feasiblescopingplanaddressingtheadoptedtarget,anewframeworkwillbeestablished43
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 4 March 2015
forCEQAGHGanalysissimilartothatwhichexistsinrelationtoAB32andthe20201reductiontarget.2
CEQAGHGanalyseswillneedtobecompletedusingthresholdsbasedonthenewpost‐20203target.4
CEQAtieringofGHGanalysiswillneedtobeconductedusingCAPsthatareconsistentwith5theadoptedpost‐2020target.6
CEQAGHGanalysisofgeneralplans(andlargemulti‐phasedprojectswithlong‐termfuture7horizons)willneedtoanalyzehorizonsbeyondtheadoptedtargetwhicharesimilartothe8currentconditionsdescribedabove.9
TheFuture:A2050LegislatedTargetanda2050TargetScopingPlan10
TheLegislaturecouldadopta2030targetinthenear‐term,butwillalsoadoptadedicated,11long‐range2050targetatsomepoint.12
Inthenear‐term,anyARBscopingplanformeetinga2050targetwilllikelybeageneral13phasedapproachthatwillnotconstituteadetailed,specific,andfeasibleplanofactionlike14thatwhichexistsinthecurrentAB32ScopingPlan.LackingsuchaStateactionplanfor152050,CEQAGHGanalysesshouldbebasedonevaluatingprojectemissionsouttothe16horizonyearofstateactionplanning(whichmaybesoonerthan2050),and,asnecessary,17evaluationof“substantialprogress”towardlonger‐termreductiontargets.18
Intime,ARBwilldevelopafeasibleandspecificplanofactionfor2050,thoughitmaybe19yearsincoming.Atthatpoint,CEQAGHGanalysiswillneedtomakeadjustmentsinorderto20bebasedonfullyevaluatingprojectemissionsforconsistencywitha2050planofaction.21
The Role of General Plans 22
Inthepost‐2020period,therewillbeincreasingpressuretoincludeambitiouspoliciestoreduce23GHGemissionswithingeneralplans.Givenpasthistory,itislikelythatpressuregroupswill24continuetouseCEQAlawsuits,GHGemissions,andtheneedforlong‐termreductionstogain25leverageinanattempttoforcelocaljurisdictionstomodifygeneralplanstoreflecttheirdesired26outcomes.Asweshiftfrom2020targetsto2030targetsandbeyond,manypeoplewillbelookingto27generalplanstoensurethatlanduseplanningreflectsthecurrentStatetarget(s)andmilestonesfor28GHGemissionreductions.29
Thispapermakesthefollowingrecommendationsconcerninggeneralplans:30
CoordinateGeneralPlansandClimateActionPlans.Withever‐increasingGHGemissions31reductionambitions,generalplansandCAPsmustbebroughtintobetterandcloseralignment32inorderforlocalGHGreductionmeasurestohavesufficientrigor,support,enforcement,and33monitoringtoensurethattheyareeffectivelyimplemented.34
LimitPlanningHorizonsto20yearsforGeneralPlanCEQAAnalysistoBetterMatch35RegionalPlanningHorizons.LegislationshouldrequiretheCEQAGuidelinestobeamended36specifictogeneralplans,toallowforimpactstobeanalyzedoverthesameplanninghorizon37requiredforotherregionalplanningtoolssuchaswatersupply/demand,andtransportation38planning.39
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 5 March 2015
The Role of Climate Action Plans 1
ThelocaltargetsettingprocessforCAPsfor2020hasprovidedimportantlessonsthatcanbe2appliedtosettingtargetsincomingyears.MostCAPshaveincludedtargetsfor2020,andsome3discussreductionstoachieveatrajectoryfor2050,but2020hasbeentheprimaryfocuson4identifyingreductionmeasures.5
The2014AB32ScopingPlanUpdatestatesthefollowing:6
“Localgovernmentreductiontargetsshouldchartareductiontrajectorythatisconsistent7with,orexceeds,thetrajectorycreatedbystatewidegoals.Improvedaccountingand8centralizedreportingoflocalefforts,includingemissionsinventories,policyprograms,and9achievedemissionreductions,wouldallowCaliforniatofurtherincorporate,andbetter10recognize,localeffortsinitsclimateplanningandpolicies.”11
Achievingareductiontrajectorythatisconsistentwithorexceedsastatewidetrajectoryisnota12straightforwardprocess.Thecircumstancesineachcommunityvarytremendouslyduetodiffering13growthrates,climate,existingbuiltenvironment,economichealth,andlocalcommunityand14politicalpreferences.15
Currently,itisextremelydifficultforaleadagencyorprojecttofullyachievealocalpost‐202016targetintheabsenceofastatewideplantoachieveapost‐2020target.WhilethereareGHG17reductionplansthatdoincludeapost‐2020target,thoseemissionsreductionsaresubjectto18uncertaintyandspeculationabouttheamountofreductionsthatcanbeattributedtoStateand19federalreductionsbeyond2020.Intheabsenceofapost‐2020targetpassedbytheLegislature,the20questionthatwillbecomeincreasinglyimportantforlocalGHGreductionplanningiswhether21showingprogresstoachievepost‐2020goalsissufficient,orwhethertheGHGreductionplanmust22actuallyachievethe2050targetevenintheabsenceofaStatelegislativetargetorplanfora23particularmilestone.24
Thiswhitepaperprovidessector‐by‐sectorconsiderationsforlocalGHGemissionsreduction25measuresinthepost2020period.Whilenotcomprehensive,thisreviewisintendedtoprovide26ideasfordifferentstrategiesthatcanbeappliedinapost‐2020world.27
ThispapermakesthefollowingrecommendationsconcerningClimateActionPlans:28
AdoptPost‐AB32Targets.TheCaliforniaLegislatureshouldtakeactiontoadopt2030(or292035)and2050GHGreductiontargetsthathavetheforceoflawthroughouttheState.There30isnoStateplantoachieve80percentbelow1990levelsby2050(oraninterimgoalfor2030),31andconsequentlythereisnoguidanceonaframeworkbywhichalocaljurisdictioncan32understanditsfairsharetobeaddressedthroughlocalGHGreductionplanning.33
InitiateARBPlanningfor2030and2050.Concomitantwithlegislativeaction,ARBshould34prepareaplantoachievetheselectedlegislativetargetfor2030withadetailedanalysisby35measureandsectoroftheGHGreductionsachievablethroughStatepolicyandinitiative.This36extendedscopingplancancreatethecontextwithinwhichlocalandregionalgovernments37canevaluateandidentifytheirfair‐sharerole.38
Create2030to2050Scenarios/Calculators.Californiashouldcreatea2050California39calculatortoinformCaliforniansastheyfacethe2050challengeinthecomingyears.Sucha40calculatorshouldbepreparednotonlyfortheStateasawhole,butshouldbeextendedto41allowjurisdictionstoexaminetheirlocalemissions,aswellapplyingdifferentscenarios.Given42
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 6 March 2015
theneedforinterimtargetplanningtoward2050,themodelsshouldalsoincludeinterimyear1markersof2030,2040,and2050.2
"Walking to Run" 3
ThispaperarguesthattheprudentapproachforlocalGHGreductionplanningistofocusonrealistic4andachievableGHGreductionsunderthecontroland/orsubstantialinfluenceoflocalgovernments5themselves,andtodosointhecurrentcontextofState(andinthefuturepossiblyfederal)GHG6reductionplanning.LocalGHGreductionplanningwillneedtobecomeincreasinglymoreambitious7onaphasedbasis.CAPsshouldbeupdatedandexpandedperiodicallytoreflecttheemerging8broaderframeworkfordeeperfuturereductions.ThetestforlocalCAPsandassociatedCEQA9practicesconcerningGHGprojectanalysisshouldbewhetherlocalactionandprojectmitigationis10resultinginreasonablelocalfair‐shareofGHGreductionsovertime,andwhichshow“substantial11progress”towardthelong‐termStatereductiontargets. 12
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 7 March 2015
I. Introduction 1
Rich Walter, ICF International 2
Problem Definition 3
LocalGHGreductionplanningbycitiesandcountiesinCaliforniahasbeenprimarilyfocusedon4adoptinglocalGHGreductionmeasuresthataresupportiveofreachingthe2020GHGtarget5establishedinAssemblyBill(AB)32tolimitemissionsto1990Statelevels.Similarly,GHGanalysis6andmitigationfordiscretionaryprojectsreviewedunderCEQAhasbeenconductedunderthe7rubricofthresholdsthatarebasedonconsistencywithAB32reductiongoalsfor2020.8
AB32isnottheendbutthebeginningofGHGreductionplanning,giventhatthelong‐termglobal9imperativetolimitthemoreextremeeffectsofglobalwarmingonclimatechangewillrequiremuch10moresubstantialreductionsoutto2050.Thosegoalsaremostcommonlydefinedasreducing11developedworldemissionstoalevel80percentbelow1990levels(asreflectedinExecutiveOrder12S‐03‐05).13
As2020approaches,legislativeattentionisstartingtoturntothepost‐2020period.Inaddition,14legalchallengesbroughtunderCEQAtotheSanDiegoAssociationofGovernments(SANDAG)15RegionalTransportationPlan/SustainableCommunitiesStrategy(RTP/SCS),andtheSanDiego16CountyClimateActionPlan(CAP)2,havesuccessfullyraisedconsistencywith2050reductiongoals17asanissueforCEQAreview.18
TherearenotrueGHGreductionplansanywhereintheworldthathaveadoptedenforceable19measurestomeettheambitious2050targets.20
AslocalcitiesandcountiesinCaliforniaprepareGHGreductionplansandconductCEQAanalysisof21projectswithemissionsthatgowellbeyond2020outto2050,theywillfacesubstantialchallenges22whichinclude,butarenotlimitedto,thefollowing:23
Long‐termEmissionsForecasting.Forecastingforapoint35yearsinthefutureisfraught24withissues,uncertainties,andpotentiallylargemarginsoferror.Oneneedonlylookatthe25pre‐2008forecastsforpopulation,housing,andeconomicconditions(comparedtoactual26conditionsduringandafterthefollowingrecession)tounderstandhowprofoundly27socioeconomicforecastscanchange.Forecastingto2050requiresnumerousassumptions28abouttheenergyandtransportationsystemsrelatedtoenergyuseandrelatedGHG29emissions.Forexample,howGHG‐intensivewillelectricitybe?Whatwillenergypricesbe?30Whatwilltheregionaltransportationnetworklooklike?Assumptionsmustalsobemade31abouttechnology:Whattypesofvehicleswillbeinuse?Whatkindsoftransportationfuels32willbereadilyavailable?Whatwillbethefeasibilityoflocal‐levelrenewableenergy33generationandstoragetechnologies?34
RegulatoryUncertainty.WiththepassageofAB32,alegallyenforceablestatewidegoalfor35GHGemissionsreductionswasestablished.TheAB32ScopingPlandefinedhowtheState36
2“ClimateActionPlan”or“CAP”isatermofartcommonlyusedtorefertoalocalgreenhousegasreductionplan.SomeCAPsalsoincludeaplanforadaptationtoexpectedclimatechange.Somejurisdictionsuse“GreenhouseGasReductionPlan”instead.Inthiswhitepaperthetermsareusedinterchangeableinrelationtogreenhousegasreductions.
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 8 March 2015
wouldmeetthatgoal.AframeworkofanalysiswasthendevelopedusingtheAB32targetto1makesignificancedeterminationsunderCEQA.ThedevelopmentofCalifornia'splanto2achieve2020reductiontargetsprovidedacriticalcontextforunderstandinghowtheGHG3emissionsoflocalprojectsandplansfitintotheoverallpicture.Nosuchclarityexistsforpost‐42020sincetherearenoactualplansforachieving2050reductiontargets,oranymilestone5between2020and2050.3Inotherwords,thereisnocomprehensiveapproach(liketheAB326ScopingPlan)thatestablishesaframeworkforcollaborativeactionsbyState,local,and7regionalagenciestomeetGHGreductiongoals.AlocalorregionalCEQAleadagencyis8thereforeleftonitsowntoascertainwhattheStateorfederalgovernmentmay(ormaynot)9implementtoachieveapost‐2020reductiongoal.10
TargetDetermination.The"zerothreshold"approachofconsideringanynewGHGemission11toresultinacumulativelyconsiderablyimpacthasbeenrejectedbynearlyallCEQAlead12agenciesandpractitioners.Instead,currentCEQAanalysesareexaminingprojectGHG13emissionsinthecontextoftheirpotentialtoadverselyaffecttheState'sabilitytomeetAB3214for2020.ThatapproachisfeasiblegiventhatleadagenciescanevaluatetheState'splanto15implementAB32for2020.Thoseleadagenciescanalsoevaluatetheirjurisdiction's16contributionstoGHGemissionsandidentifythereductionsneededonalocallevelthatwould17meettheAB32goal,usingthecombinedeffectofStateandlocalaction.Itwouldbe18speculativetopredicttheimpactsofaStateorfederalactionto2050.Accordingly,onecannot19readilycompletesuchagapanalysisfor2050withoutmassivespeculation,andsuch20speculationwouldfurtherhinderdeterminationofaninformedtargettoguidelocalactions21for2050.22
Fair‐ShareDetermination.Settingasidethechallengeswithforecasting,regulatory23uncertainty,andtargetdeterminationdescribedabove,itisbothspeculativeandproblematic24todeterminewhatalocaljurisdiction’s“fairshare”ofGHGreductionsshouldbefor2050at25thistime.Constitutionallimitations(Nollan,Dolan,etc.)mandatethatmitigationmustbe26proportionaltoaproject'slevelofimpact.Asnotedabove,absentanactualStateplanto27reduceemissionsfor2050,itishardtoseehowalocalorregionalplanorprojectcanbefairly28assignedthemajorityofthemitigationburdenandstillbecalled“proportional.”Local29jurisdictionswouldbeflyingblindiftheyweretoindividuallyspeculatewhattheirfair‐shares30wouldbeatthispoint,andwouldriskundulyburdeningtheircitizensandbusinesseswith31disproportionatemitigationresponsibilitiesiftheyimposedadditionalmitigationbeyondthat32neededtomeetAB32.33
Feasibility.Inadditiontothefair‐shareburdenissueisthequestionoffeasibility.Technically,34therearenumerouswaystoreduceGHGemissionsfornewdevelopment(seediscussionlater35inthispaper).Buttherearealsoseveretechnicalchallengestofullyachievingsubstantial36emissionsreduction.Furthermore,thefeasibilityofachievingsubstantialreductionsonthe37orderof80to90percentthroughlocalactiononlyisquestionablegivenlimitationsonlocal38municipalityauthority.Nocityorcountyiscompletelyautonomousinmattersofenergyand39transportationsystems.Whileamunicipalitycaninfluencecertainmatters,manydecisions40abouttheelectricityandtransportationsystemsareunderthecontroloftheStateandfederal41government,and/orarecontrolledbymarketdeterminations.Toachievea2050goalwill42requiremajorshiftsinhowweobtainanduseenergy,transportourselvesandgoods,andhow43
3ExecutiveOrderS‐03‐05isanexecutivedepartmentgoalandisneitheralegallyenforceabletargetforprivatedevelopmentorlocalgovernmentsnorisitaplan.
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 9 March 2015
weliveandbuild.Thesetransformationswouldrequireimplementationacrossalllevelsofthe1economy,notjustwhatlocaljurisdictionshaveauthorityover;placingthe2050burden2predominantlyonlocaljurisdictionswouldthusbehighlydisproportional,costly,and3potentiallysubjecttolitigation.Evenifoffsetsareincludedtoovercomepotentiallocal4mitigationlimitations,thepurchaseanduseofoffsetswouldbefraughtwithuncertaintyin5termsofhowtheyshouldbeappliedandwhatthelegalbasiswouldbeforimposing6mitigationtobeconsistentwitha2050target,7
Progress vs. Perfection 8
"Foreveryproblemthereisasolutionthatissimple,elegant,andwrong."‐H.L.Mencken9
ThesimplisticanswertothechallengesdescribedaboveisthatGHGreductionplansandCEQA10documentsshouldusethe80percentbelow2050targetasthemetricofevaluation,andshould11mandatecomplianceaccordingly.ThislineofreasoningisthesubtextofthetwoCEQAlegal12challengesinSanDiegonotedabove.13
Whileeasytounderstand,thispointofviewiswrongonmanylevels;notablyregardingfeasibility,14jurisdictionalcontrol,economicefficiency,andcommonsense.Aswillbeexplainedindetaillaterin15thispaper,inordertoreachthe2050reductiontarget,theCaliforniaeconomywouldhaveto16undergoaradicaltransformationinenergyusageandcontrolofnon‐energyemissions.Sucha17transformationisnotfeasibleintheshortrun.TherealityisthatCaliforniacitiesandcountieshave18onlylimitedregulatorytoolsbywhichtoeffectchange,notthebroaderregulatorycontrolover19vehicletechnology,fuels,andenergysystemsthatisexertedbytheStateandthefederal20government.GHGreductionplanningtodatehasshownthatrelativeportfoliosofreduction21methodsemployedbylocal,State,federalgovernmentsvarywidely.Torequirethatmostofthe22reductionscomeonlyfrommeasureswithinthecontroloflocalgovernments—ratherthanseeking23cost‐effectivemeasuresovertimefromeverylevelofcontrol—wouldresultinenormouseconomic24costs.AsshowninGHGreductionplanningtomeettheAB32targettodate,theamountofexpected25reductionsfromStatemeasuresfundamentallyinfluencesthegapthatlocaljurisdictionsoftenseek26tofillthroughlocalaction.Finally,itmakesnosensetoinsistonasolutiontoaglobalproblemby27pursuingremediesatthesmallestlevelsoforganization,i.e.,thelocaljurisdictionforGHGreduction28plansandtheprojectbyprojectunderCEQA.29
Instead,thispaperarguesthatforthe2020to2050period,thefundamentalmetricforlocalGHG30reductionplansandforprojectanalysisunderCEQAshouldbesubstantialprogresstowardthe205031target,ratherthanachievementofthe2050target.Ametricbasedonsteadyprogresstowarda205032targetwillbeabetterfoundationforlocalsupportandcommitmentovertime,andwouldbeakey33sourceofsupportforcontinuedStateGHGreductionefforts.Conversely,ametricrequiringradical34andhighlydisruptivechangeoverashortperiodwillbemuchmorelikelytoengendersubstantial35localresistanceandorganizedoppositiontolocalGHGreductionaction,resultinginlesslocal36supportforStateGHGreductionplansinthelongrun.37
Be Careful What You Wish For: The Limitations and Perils of CEQA 38
CEQAisprimarilyintendedtoprovidedisclosuretothepublicandtodecision‐makersaboutthe39environmentaleffectsofnewprojects,andtocreateopportunitiesforconsiderationofpublicinput40onenvironmentalimpacts.CEQAisapoorplanningtoolforfindingandimplementingsolutionsto41cumulativeimpactsthatoperateonalandscapelevel,asitisinherentlyboundtotheindividual42
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 10 March 2015
projectcircumstancesofeachCEQAreview.Forexample,CEQAreviewhasnotresultedineffective1solutionstoexistingregionaltrafficsolutionsincongestedpartsofCalifornia,norhasitresultedin2effectivesolutionstoexistingairqualitychallenges.Thesolutionstothoseproblemswillbefound3outsideofCEQA.4
OneofthepremisesoftheSanDiegoCEQAchallengesnotedaboveisthatthesolutionstoregional5GHGreductionscanandwillbefoundwithintheCEQAprocess,whichishighlyunlikely.Ratherthan6obtainingthelong‐termresultsdesiredbythosewhobroughtforwardtheSanDiegochallenges,a7morelikelyresultisthatCEQAprocesses,iffacedwithinfeasiblemitigationand/oralternative8demands,willbeforcedtouselargerdocuments(moreEIRs),andmakemorestatementsof9overridingcircumstances.Further,iftheoppositiontoadditionalGHGreductionmandateswereto10compelfurtheractiononastatewidepoliticallevel,onecouldseelegislativechangestoCEQAto11preventsuchdemands.12
WhileCEQAcanbeasupportingtoolforGHGreductions,itisthepremiseofthispaperthatlocal13andregionalGHGreductionplanning,coordinatedandinphasewithStateplanningandaction,14focusedonactionsthatarerealisticallyunderthecontrolandinfluenceoflocalgovernment,isa15preferredapproachtoever‐increasingandultimatelyineffectiveCEQAlawsuits.16
Slow and Steady Wins the Race 17
Environmentalpolicy(andmostpublicpolicy)operatesinadynamictensionbetweenradical18changeandincrementalreform.Whilethereisanunmistakableappealtoboldandrapidchange19whenfacedwithaprofoundchallenge,likethatposedbyclimatechange,thaturgencyneedstobe20temperedwiththeabilityofsociety,theeconomy,andgovernmententitiestoadapttoandembrace21thatchange.Intheexperienceoftheauthorsofthispaper—wholeadGHGreductionplanning22practicesatprofessionalfirmsthatconductmanyoftheGHGreductionplans,aswellasCEQA23analysisofGHGemissionsinCalifornia—localgovernmentswilltakeactionwhenthereis1)aclear24contextforplanning,2)abalancedandreasonableburdenonlocaljurisdictions(comparedtothat25takenonbytheStateandfederalgovernment),and3)realisticexpectationsthathaveafavorable26chanceofsuccess.27
TheCEQAlawsuitsinSanDiegoaretheequivalentofhittingabeehivewithasticktoremovethe28beesandobtainhoney.Conversely,leveraginglocalsupportandaction,withasteadyand29consistentlycoordinatedapproachwithStateandfederalsupport,isequivalenttothemorecautious30approachofanexperiencedbeekeeperwhounderstandsbeebehavior,preparescarefully,and31movesslowlyandsteadilytocompletethetasksathand. 32
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 11 March 2015
II. Climate Science Background 1
Rich Walter, ICF International 2
Scientificstudieshavedemonstratedacausativerelationbetweenincreasingman‐madeGHG3emissionsandalong‐termtrendinincreasingglobalaveragetemperatures.Thisconclusionisthe4consensusofthevastmajorityofclimatescientistswhopublishinthefield.Theeffectsofpast5increasesintemperatureontheclimateandtheearth’sresourcesarewelldocumentedinthe6scientificliterature,whichisbestsummarizedintheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange7(IPCC)’speriodicreports,thelatestofwhichistheFifthAssessmentReport,releasedin20148(http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/).9
ModelingoffutureclimatechangewithcontinuedincreaseinGHGemissionsindicatesthatnet10substantialadverseeffectstoboththehumanenvironmentandthephysicalenvironmentwill11increasewiththeriseintemperatures.Manyscientificbodiesaroundtheworldhaveconcludedthat12avoidingthemostsevereoutcomesofprojectedclimatechangewillrequirekeepingglobalaverage13warmingtonomorethan2°C(3.5°F),relativetopre‐industriallevels(or~1°C(2°F)abovepresent14levels).Whileremainingbelowtheselevelsdoesnotguaranteeavoidanceofsubstantialadverse15effects,iftheselevelsareexceededimpactsareprojectedtobecomemoresevere,widespread,and16irreversible.Itshouldbenotedthataglobalaverageriseof2°Cmeansthatthecenteroflarge17continents,includingNorthAmerica,willseetemperatureincreasestwicethisrate,withevenlarger18increasesinthePolarRegions.19
Inordertohaveaneven4chanceatkeepingglobalaveragetemperaturestotheselevels,the20concentrationsofGHGsintheatmospherewouldlikelyneedtopeakbelow450ppmcarbondioxide21equivalent(CO2e)(IPCC2014).InordertohaveanevenchancetostabilizeGHGconcentrationat22thislevel,globalemissionswouldhavetodeclinebyabout50percent(comparedto2000levels)by232050.Giventhemorelimitedcapabilityofdevelopingcountriestolimittheiremissionsinthis24periodofrapideconomicgrowthandexpansion,estimatesarethatgreenhousegasemissionsin25industrializedcountries,includingtheUnitedStates,wouldhavetodeclinebyapproximately8026percent(comparedto2000levels).FortheU.S.,thistargetwouldcorrespondtoapproximately7827percentbelow1990levels(UnionofConcernedScientists2007).Someestimatesassertthat28industrializedcountriesmayhavetoreduceemissionsby80to95percentcomparedto1990levels29toprovideforstabilizationatthe2°Cincreasethreshold(IPCC2007).30
Thepolicyshorthandfortheseestimateshasmostcommonlybeenatargetforindustrialcountries31toreducetheiremissionsby80percentbelow1990levels.ThisisthelevelreferencedinExecutive32OrderS‐03‐05,forexample,for2050(seediscussionbelow).Themoreshort‐termGHGreduction33targets,suchastheAB32Statereductiontargetofreaching1990levelsby2020,areintendedas34interimstepstoreversethetrendofever‐increasingGHGemissions,andtomakesubstantial35progressonthedecades‐longefforttoreachlong‐termreductionsneededby2050.36
4“Even”asina50percentchance.Ingeneral,avarietyofscientificstudies,assummarizedintheIPCC2014FifthAssessmentReportconcludethatthereisa50:50chanceofkeepingtemperatureincreasesbelowthe2°C/3.5°FincreasethresholdwithGHGconcentrationsof450ppmCO2e.
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 12 March 2015
III. Regulatory Setting 1
Rich Walter, ICF International; Cheryl Laskowski, Atkins. 2
InsettingexpectationsforlocalGHGreductionplanningbeyond2020,itisimportanttoreviewthe3existingregulatorysettingandhowitmayaffectlocalGHGreductionsfrom2020to2050.4
Legislation, Regulation and Other Guidelines 5
Executive Order S‐03‐05 (2005) 6
EOS‐03‐05establishedthefollowingGHGemissionreductiontargetsforCalifornia'sStateagencies:7
By2010,reduceGHGemissionsto2000levels.8
By2020,reduceGHGemissionsto1990levels.9
By2050,reduceGHGemissionsto80percentbelow1990levels.10
ExecutiveordersarebindingonlyonStateagenciesandarenotbindingonlocalgovernmentsorthe11privatesector.Accordingly,EOS‐03‐05guidesStateagencies'effortstocontrolandregulateGHG12emissions,buthasnodirectbindingeffectonlocalgovernmentalorprivateactions.TheSecretaryof13theCaliforniaEnvironmentalProtectionAgency(CalEPA)isrequiredtoreporttotheGovernorand14StateLegislaturebiannuallyontheimpactsofglobalwarmingonCalifornia,onmitigationand15adaptationplans,andonprogressmadetowardreducingGHGemissionstomeetthetargets16establishedinthisexecutiveorder.17
AsdescribedbelowindiscussionofGHGlitigation,EOS‐03‐05hasplayedaroleinrecentCEQA18courtcasesintermsofdeterminingtheadequacyofGHGprojectanalysis.19
Assembly Bill 32‐California Global Warming Solutions Act (2006) 20
AB32codifiedtheState'sGHGemissionstargetbyrequiringthatCalifornia’sglobalwarming21emissionsbereducedto1990levelsby2020.Sinceitsadoption,theARB,CEC,CPUC,andthe22BuildingStandardsCommissionhavealladoptedregulationsthatwillhelpmeetthegoalsofAB32.23
The2008ScopingPlanforAB32identifiesspecificmeasurestoreduceGHGemissionsto199024levelsby2020,andrequiresARBandotherStateagenciestodevelopandenforceregulationsand25otherinitiativesforreducingGHGs.Specifically,theScopingPlanarticulatesakeyroleforlocal26governments,recommendingthattheyestablishGHGreductiongoalsforboththeirmunicipal27operationsandtheircommunities,consistentwiththoseoftheState.28
The2014UpdateoftheAB32ScopingPlanreviewedthestatusofprogresstowardmeetingtheAB2932targetfor2020,anditalsopresentedprioritiesandrecommendationsforachievinglonger‐term30emissionreductionobjectives.The2014UpdateincludesdiscussionofapotentialGHGreduction31targetfor2030of35to40percentbelow1990levels,butdoesnotspecificallyrecommenda203032target,nordoesitpresentanactualplantoachievesuchreductions.TheUpdatestipulatesthat33emissionsfrom2020to2050willhavetodeclineseveraltimesfasterthantherateneededtoreach34the2020emissionslimit(fromapproximately1percentdeclineperyearbetween2010and2020to35over5percentperyearbetween2020and2050).36
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 13 March 2015
AB32alsoestablishedthelegislativeintentthatthestatewideGHGemissionslimitshouldendure,1andshouldbeusedtomaintainandcontinuereductionsinGHGemissionsbeyond2020.ARBis2requiredtomakerecommendationstotheGovernorandtheLegislatureonhowtocontinue3reductionsofGHGemissionsbeyond2020;butitwilltakeanactoftheLegislaturetolegally4establishbindingstatewideGHGemissionstargetsfortheperiodbeyond2020.5
Assembly Bill 1493: Pavley Rules (2002, Amendments 2009, 2012) 6
Knownas"PavleyI,"AB1493setthenation'sfirstGHGstandardsforautomobiles.AB14937requiredARBtoadoptvehiclestandardsthatloweredGHGemissionsfromnewlightdutyautosto8themaximumextentfeasible,beginningin2009.AdditionalstrengtheningofthePavleystandards9(previouslyreferredtoas"PavleyII,"nowcommonlycalledthe"AdvancedCleanCars"measure)10hasbeenadoptedforvehiclemodelyears2017‐2025.Together,thetwostandardsareexpectedto11increaseaveragefueleconomytoroughly43milespergallonby2020,andreduceGHGemissions12fromthetransportationsectorinCaliforniabyapproximately14percent.InJune2009,theEPA13grantedCalifornia'swaiverrequestenablingtheStatetoenforceitsGHGemissionsstandardsfor14newmotorvehiclesbeginningwiththecurrentmodelyear.15
EPAandARBworkedtogetheronajointrulemakingefforttoestablishGHGemissionsstandardsfor16model‐year2017‐2025passengervehicleswhichwouldleadtoafleetaverageof54.5mpgin2025.17
Therearecurrentlynoadoptedstandardsforpassengervehiclesforafter2025.However,the201718mid‐termreviewforAdvancedCleanCars—whereARB,USEPA,andNHTSAwillconductatechnical19assessmentofvehicletechnologytrends—willinformfuturelight‐dutyvehiclestandardstargetedat20continuingtoachieveGHGemissionreductionsofaboutfivepercentperyearthroughatleast2030.21
Senate Bills 1078/107 and Senate Bill 2 (2011): Renewables Portfolio Standard 22
SenateBills(SB)1078and107,California'sRenewablesPortfolioStandard(RPS),obligates23investor‐ownedutilities(IOUs),energyserviceproviders(ESPs),andCommunityChoice24Aggregations(CCAs)toprocureanadditional1percentofretailsalesperyearfromeligible25renewablesourcesuntil20percentisreached,nolaterthan2010.TheCaliforniaPublicUtilities26Commission(CPUC)andCECarejointlyresponsibleforimplementingtheprogram.SenateBill227(2011)setforthalongerrangetargetofprocuring33percentofretailsalesby2020.Thereisno28currentRPSrequirementfortheperiodafter2020andthusthe33percentrequirementwould29remaininplaceafter2020pendingadditionallegislation.Thecurrentpolicyaffectsonlythe30proportionofenergyderivedfromrenewablesanddoesnotsetabsoluteGHGemissionreduction31goals.Iftheother67percentofaprovider’sportfolioisderivedfromstaticsources,emissions32shouldreduceovertime,butthereisnoemissionsreductionmandatefromthisstandard.533
Executive Order S‐01‐07: Low Carbon Fuel Standard (2007) 34
EOS‐01‐07mandatesthat(1)astatewidegoalbeestablishedtoreducethecarbonintensityof35California'stransportationfuelsbyatleast10percentby2020;and(2)aLowCarbonFuelStandard36(LCFS)fortransportationfuelsbeestablishedinCalifornia.ThereisnoLCFSrequirementforthe37periodafter2020andthusthe10percentrequirementwouldremaininplaceafter2020pending38
5Sincenuclearandlargehydroelectricpowerarenotconsideredrenewable,variationsinprocurementofthesesourcesofenergyrelativetofossilfuel‐basedsourcescouldaffectthetotalemissionsfromenergy,evenwhileachievingtheRPS.
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 14 March 2015
additionallegislation.However,ARBhasidentifiedapriorityinthe2014AB32ScopingPlanUpdate1toproposemoreaggressivelong‐termtargets,suchasa15to20percentreductioninaverage2carbonintensityoftransportationfuelsbelow2010levelsby2030.3
Senate Bill 375: Sustainable Communities Strategy (2008) 4
SB375establishesaplanningprocessthatcoordinateslanduseplanning,regionaltransportation5plans,andfundingprioritiesthatwouldhelpCaliforniameettheGHGreductiongoalsestablishedin6AB32.SB375requiresregionaltransportationplansdevelopedbymetropolitanplanning7organizations(MPOs)toincorporatea"sustainablecommunitiesstrategy"(SCS)intheirRegional8TransportationPlans(RTPs).ThegoaloftheSCSistoreduceregionalvehiclemilestraveled(VMT)9throughlanduseplanningandconsequenttransportationpatterns.Theregionaltargetswere10releasedbyARBinSeptember2010.SB375alsoincludesprovisionsforstreamlinedCEQAreview11forsomeinfillprojects,suchastransit‐orienteddevelopment.12
ThecurrentgoalsforVMT‐GHGreductionsidentifiedbyARBarefor2020and2035.However,SB13375callsforadoptingadditionalgoalsperiodicallythrough2050,whichprovidesamechanismfor14requiringfutureRTP/SCSstocontinuereducingVMT‐relatedGHGemissionsallthewayoutto2050.15ThecurrentgoalsidentifiedforVMT‐GHGreductionsarefocusedonreducingpercapitaVMT‐16relatedGHGemissionscomparedtoanominal2005baseline,buttheydonotmandateanabsolute17reductioninGHGemissions.18
California Energy Efficiency Standards for Residential and Non‐Residential 19Buildings: Green Building Code (2011), Title 24 Update (2014) 20
Californiahasadoptedaggressiveenergyefficiencystandardsfornewbuildingsandhascontinually21updatedthemformanyyears.In2008,theCaliforniaBuildingStandardsCommissionadoptedthe22nation'sfirstgreenbuildingstandards,whichincludestandardsformanyotherbuiltenvironment23aspectsbesidesenergyefficiency.TheCaliforniaGreenBuildingStandardsCode(proposedPart11,24Title24)wasadoptedaspartoftheCaliforniaBuildingStandardsCode(24CaliforniaCodeof25Regulations[CCR]).Part11establishedvoluntarystandardsthatbecamemandatoryinthe201026editionofthecode,includingplanninganddesignforsustainablesitedevelopment,energy27efficiency(inexcessoftheCaliforniaEnergyCoderequirements),waterconservation,material28conservation,andinternalaircontaminants.ThevoluntarystandardstookeffectonJanuary1,2011.29ThelatestupdateoftheTitle24energyefficiencystandardswasadoptedin2012andtookeffecton30January1,2014.Whilethereisnolegalmandatethattheenergyefficiencystandardsbeupdated,31givenpastpractice,itisprobablethatTitle24standardswillbeperiodicallyupdateduptoand32beyond2020.33
California Public Utilities Commission's Energy Efficiency Strategic Plan 34
TheCPUChasadoptedZeroNetEnergy(ZNE)goalsaspartofitslong‐termenergyefficiency35strategicplancallingforZNEforallnewresidentialbuildingsby2020,andZNEforallnew36commercialbuildingsby2030.Whilenotalegalmandate,thesegoalswillheavilyinfluencethe37periodicupdatesoftheCaliforniaBuildingStandardsunderTitle24.38
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 15 March 2015
Greenhouse Gas Cap‐and‐Trade Program (2013) 1
OnOctober20,2011,ARBadoptedacap‐and‐tradeprogramforCalifornia,whichhascreateda2market‐basedsystemwithanoverallemissionslimitforaffectedsectors.Theprogramproposesto3regulatemorethan85percentofCalifornia'semissions,andwillstaggercompliancerequirements4accordingtothefollowingschedule:(1)electricitygenerationandlargeindustrialsources(2013);5(2)fuelcombustionandtransportation(2015).Thefirstauctionoccurredinlate2012withthefirst6complianceyearin2013.Thecap‐and‐tradeprogramisimplementedinsupportofAB32.Beyond72020,thecap‐and‐tradeprogramislikelytocontinuetobeimplemented.Withoutadditional8legislation,thelegalauthorityforthecap‐and‐tradeprogramwouldbelimitedtomaintainState9GHGemissionslevelsat1990levels.10
CEQA Guidelines (2010) 11
TheCEQAGuidelinesrequireleadagenciestodescribe,calculate,orestimatetheamountofGHG12emissionsthatresultfromdiscretionaryprojectsintheirCEQAdocument.Moreover,theCEQA13Guidelinesemphasizetheneedtodeterminepotentialclimatechangeeffectsofagivenprojectand14proposemitigationasnecessary.TheCEQAGuidelinesconfirmthediscretionofleadagenciesto15determineappropriatesignificancethresholds,butrequirethepreparationofanenvironmental16impactreport(EIR)if"thereissubstantialevidencethatthepossibleeffectsofaparticularproject17arestillcumulativelyconsiderablenotwithstandingcompliancewithadoptedregulationsor18requirements"(Section15064.4).19
Theguidelineswereupdatedin2010toaddressGHGemissions.CEQAGuidelinesSection15126.420includesconsiderationsforleadagenciesregardingfeasiblemitigationmeasurestoreduceGHG21emissions,whichmayinclude(1)measuresinanexistingplanormitigationprogramforthe22reductionofemissionsthatarerequiredaspartoftheleadagency'sdecision;(2)implementationof23projectfeatures,projectdesign,orothermeasureswhichareincorporatedintoaprojectto24substantiallyreduceenergyconsumptionorGHGemissions;(3)offsitemeasures,includingoffsets25thatarenototherwiserequired,tomitigateaproject'semissions;(4)measuresthatsequester26carbonorcarbon‐equivalentemissions,and/or(5)otherpossiblemeasures.27
CEQA GHG Thresholds 28
AnumberofairdistrictshaveadoptedCEQAguidelinesincludingGHGthresholdsusedfor29stationarysourcepermitting.Someairdistrictshavealsoadoptedguidelineswithrecommended30(butnotbinding)GHGthresholdsforuseinjurisdictionswithintheairdistrictforlanduseprojects.31TheCountyofSanDiegohasalsodevelopedGHGthresholdsforusebytheCountyforprojectsunder32itsjurisdiction.33
Themethodologiesforthedifferentthresholdsvary,andmayincludesomeorallofthefollowing:34(1)massemissions"bright‐line"thresholds;(2)percentreductionsbelowaBusinessasUsual(BAU)35level;(3)efficiency‐basedthresholds;(4)compliancewithaqualifiedGHGreductionstrategy;and36(5)BestManagementPractices(BMP).Someofthedistrictthresholdsincludemultipleoptions.37
AlloftheadoptedCEQAGHGthresholdsarebasedonthereductiontargetsinAB32.Noneofthe38adoptedCEQAGHGthresholdsaddressreductionstargetsbeyond2020oroutto2050.39
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 16 March 2015
General Plan Guidelines 1
TheexistingCaliforniaGeneralPlanGuidelineswerelastcomprehensivelyupdatedin2003.A2supplementonCommunityandMilitaryCompatibilityPlanningwaspublishedin2009andupdated3in2013,andasupplementonCompleteStreetsandtheCirculationElementwaspublishedin2010.4Theexisting2003guidelinesandmilitarycompatibilitysupplementaresilentonthesubjectofGHG5emissionsandclimatechange.Thecompletestreetsandcirculationelementsupplementdoes6mentionthatreducingVMTisanimportantaspectofmeetingtheState’sGHGreductioneffort,but7doesnotelaborateonordescribeanyspecificGHGreductionefforts.8
TheOfficeofPlanningandResearch(OPR)ispresentlyworkingonanupdatetotheGeneralPlan9Guidelines.Theupdatewasplannedforreleasein2014forpublicreview,butasofMarch2015it10hasnotyetbeenreleased.Theupdateisexpectedtoincludeanextensiveoverviewoftherequired11generalplanelementsincludingtipsforcompliance,bestpractices,anddataresources.Inaddition12tothecurrentlyrequiredmandatoryelements,theupdatewillreportedlyfocusonfourkeyareas:13Economics,Equity,ClimateChange,andHealthyCommunities.14
OPR‐recommendedpoliciesintheupdatewillreportedlyfocusonimplementingthevisionofthe15State’s“California’sClimateFuture”—theGovernor’sEnvironmentalGoalsandPolicyReport16(EGPR)—forwhichadiscussiondraftwasreleased2013.TheEGPRacknowledgestheAB32target17andtheEOS‐03‐052050target,andcallsforamid‐termemissionsreductiontarget.TheEGPR18assertsthatcomprehensivepolicyapproachesareneededtoachievetheState’sclimatechange19emissionreductionandreadinessgoals,anditidentifiesfivekeyelementsthatwillmakeupthe20State’splantomeetthechallengeofclimatechange.21
DecarbonizetheState’senergyandtransportationsystems;22
PreserveandstewardtheState’slandsandnaturalresources;23
Buildsustainableregionsthatsupporthealthy,livablecommunities;24
Buildclimateresilienceintoallpolicies;and25
Improvecoordinationbetweenagenciesandimprovedataavailability.26
AstheGeneralPlanGuidelinesupdateisintendedtohelpimplementtheEGPR,onecanexpect27additionalpolicyrecommendationsforgeneralplansintermsofeachofthesefiveareas.For28example,theEGPRcallsforalignmentoflocalgeneralplanswithregionalsustainablecommunities29strategies(wheretheyexist).TheEGPRalsocallsforenvironmentalmetricstobeincorporatedat30theState,regional,andlocallevel.31
OPRalsoincludesawebportalona“ClimateChange/GlobalWarmingElement”thatisidentifiedas32optional.6OPRdescribesthatexistinggeneralplanlawprovidesmanyopportunitiesforlocal33governmentstoaddressclimatechange,andthatmanyexistinggeneralplanpoliciesalreadyreduce34GHGemissionsandpreparefortheimpactsofclimatechange.Theseexistingpoliciesandprograms35canprovideastartingpointforcommunitiesastheydevelopcomprehensiveplanstoreduceGHG36emissionsandconsideradaptationstrategies.OPRalsodescribesthatthegeneralplanstructure37allowscitiesandcountiestoalignGHGemissionreductioneffortswithothercommunitygoals,38therebystrengtheningthelong‐termsustainabilityandresiliencyofthecommunityandtheState.39
6http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/action/cclu/output2.php?gpElmt=climateChngGlbl
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 17 March 2015
AnotherresourceforcityandcountyplannersistheCAPCOAreportonModelPoliciesfor1GreenhouseGasesinGeneralPlans(CAPCOA2009).Itdiscussesgeneralplanstructureandoptions2forincludingGHGpoliciesinexistinggeneralplanelements,orforcreatingaseparateGHGElement3and/orGHGReductionPlan.TheModelPoliciesReportcontainsamenuofmodellanguagefor4inclusioninthegeneralplanelement(s).Thereportdoesnotdictatepolicydecisions;rather,it5providescitiesandcountieswithanarrayofoptionstohelpthemaddressGHGsintheirgeneral6plans.7
TherehavebeenrumorsthattheGeneralPlanGuidelineswillincludemuchmoreambitious8recommendationsforlocaljurisdictionsintermsofintegratingclimatechangeconcerns(both9mitigationandadaptation),buttheextenttowhichsucheffortsarerequiredormerelyoptional10withinfuturegeneralplansremainstobeseen.11
Recent San Diego CEQA Court Rulings 12
Two2014decisionsbytheCaliforniaFourthAppellateDistrictunderscoretheuncertaintyof13analyzingGHGemissionsunderCEQA,andtheneedforadditionalguidanceinthepost‐2020period.14
Cleveland National Forest Foundation et al. v. SANDAG 15
InOctober2011,SANDAGadoptedthe2050RegionalTransportationPlanandSustainable16CommunitiesPlan(RTP/SCS).TheRTP/SCSwasthefirstRegionalTransportationPlanthatincluded17aSustainableCommunitiesStrategy,andthefirsttoincludetheregionalpercapitaVMT‐related18GHGreductiontargetsforthepassengerandlight‐dutyvehiclesectorrequiredunderSenateBill37519for2020and2035.Subsequently,ClevelandNationalForestandtheCenterforBiologicalDiversity20filedapetitionclaimingthattheSANDAGEIRcertifyingtheRTP/SCSwasinadequate.21
ThepetitionersclaimedthatSANDAGfailedtoproperlyanalyze(amongotherissues)GHGimpacts.22TheEIRanalyzedGHGemissionsandconcludedthattheRTP/SCSwouldmeetthepercapita23reductiongoalsidentifiedbytheSB375mandate.TheEIRconcludedthattheRTP/SCSwouldresult24inanetreductioninVMT‐relatedGHGemissionsfor2020,andwouldnotconflictwithAB32.The25RTP/SCSincludedprojectsbeyond2020andtheEIRdisclosedanincreaseinGHGemissionspost‐262020.7However,theEIRclaimedthattherewerenoadoptedtargetsorplansbeyondthoseinAB3227andSB375,andthereforeconcludedthattheRTP/SCSdidnotconflictwithanyplanstoreduceGHG28emissions.In2012,thetrialcourtruledthattheEIRwas“impermissiblydismissiveofExecutive29OrderS‐03‐05”infailingtoanalyzehowtheRTPs/SCS2050GHGemissionsrelatedtothe2050goal30oftheExecutiveOrder,andinfailingtoadequatelyconsidertransportationmitigationmeasures31accordingly.32
SANDAGappealedthelowercourtdecisionandinNovember2014,athree‐judgepanelfromthe33FourthAppellateDistrictissuedatwo‐to‐onefindingupholdingthelowercourtdecision,concluding34thattheEIRviolatedCEQA.ThemajorityopinionheldthattheEIRfailedtoanalyzetheimpactofthe35RTP/SCSGHGemissionsovertime(includingitsincreaseoverbaselineemissionsby2050)onthe36abilityoftheStatetomeetingthe2050GHGreductiontargetinEOS‐3‐05.Ofparticularinterest,the37
7TheEIRindicatedthattransportationemissionswere14.33millionMTCO2ein2010(baseline)andwouldbe12.04MMTCO2ein2020,12.94MMTCO2ein2035,and14.74MMTCO2ein2050withimplementationoftheRTP/SCSandStateadoptedtransportationregulations(LCFS+Pavley).TheEIRactuallydisclosedasignificantandunavoidableimpactfor2050emissionsbutdidnotspecificallymakeanyfindingsrelativetoconsistencywithExecutiveOrderS‐3‐05whichthecourttookissuewith.
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 18 March 2015
majorityopinionstatedthatitdidnotintendtosuggestthattheRTP/SCSmustachievetheEO’s12050goal,oranyotherspecificnumericgoal,butratherthattheEIRshouldhaveanalyzed2consistencywiththe2050goal,includingconsiderationofmitigation.Theminorityopinionasserted3thattheEOS‐3‐05doesnot,asarguedbySANDAG,constituteamandateorthresholdofsignificance,4asitwasnotpassedbytheLegislature.TheminorityopinionassertedthatEOS‐3‐05doesnothave5an“identifiablefoundationintheconstitutionalpoweroftheGovernororinstatutorylaw.”The6minorityopinionalsodescribedthesubstantialdifficultiesindeterminingaregionalfair‐shareof7GHGemissionsintheabsenceofalegislativeGHGreductiontargetfor2050,orwithoutaStateplan8toachieveanysuchtarget.9
InDecember2014,SANDAGvotedtoappealthedecisiontotheCaliforniaSupremeCourtandthe10SupremeCourtdecidedinMarch2015thatitwouldheartheappeal.11
San Diego CAP Lawsuit 12
In2011,theCountyofSanDiegopreparedandadoptedaGeneralPlanUpdateandProgrammatic13EIR(PEIR).InthePEIR,mitigationmeasure(MM)CC‐1.2statedthattheCountywouldpreparea14CAPtoreduceemissionstoalessthansignificantfinding.InJune2012,theCountyofSanDiego15BoardofSupervisorsadoptedaCAPandGHGsignificancethresholds,andpreparedanaddendumto16thePEIRasitsenvironmentaldocument.TheSierraClubsued,arguingthattheCAPdidnotcomply17withMMCC‐1.2;thatitfailedtomeettherequirementsforadoptingthresholdsofsignificancefor18GHGs;andthatitshouldhavebeenreviewedinaseparateEIRdocument,notanaddendum.19
In2013,theSuperiorCourt(thesamejudgeaspresidedinthetrialcourtoftheSANDAGcase)ruled20infavorofthepetitioners,statingthatasupplementalEIRwastheappropriateenvironmental21documentandtheCAPdidnotcontainsufficientenforcementrigorforreducingGHGemissions.The22Countyappealedtherulingandin2014theFourthAppellateDistrictaffirmedtheearlierfinding,23agreeingtheCAPwasinadequatebynotcomplyingwiththerequirementsofMMCC‐1.2.The24decisionnotesthat“[t]heCountycannotrelyonunfundedprogramstosupporttherequiredGHG25emissionsreductionby2020;”the“CAPcontainednodetaileddeadlines…acknowledg[ing]thatit26willnotbeeffectiveunlessitisupdated;”andthat“theCountymadeanerroneousassumptionthat27theCAPandThresholdsprojectwasthesameprojectasthegeneralplanupdate.”Further,theCourt28notedthatthe“County’sfailuretocomplywithMitigationMeasureCC‐1.2andAssemblyBillNo.3229andExecutiveOrderNo.S‐3‐05supportstheconclusionthattheCAPandThresholdsprojectwill30havesignificantadverseenvironmentalimpactsthathavenotbeenpreviouslyconsidered,mitigated31oravoided.”Thisconclusion,intheCourt’sopinion,wasbasedinpartonthefactthattheCAP,which32waslimitedtomeetinga2020reductiontarget,didnotaddresstheneedtofurtherreduce33emissionsafter2020sufficientlytosupportmeetingthe2050targetinEOS‐3‐05.34
InDecember2014,theCountyvotedtoappealthedecisiontotheCaliforniaSupremeCourt.The35SupremeCourtdecided,inMarch2015,tonotheartheappeal.Thustheappellatecourtrulingcan36becitedasprecedentinotherCEQAcases.However,sincetheSupremeCourtdecidedtohearthe37SANDAGappeal,theSupremeCourtmayruleontheissuesurroundingEOS‐3‐05andthe205038targetwhichcouldoverruletheprecedentintheappellatecourtringintheSanDiegoCAPruling.39
Implications of the San Diego Court Rulings 40
TheSANDAGdecisionmarkedthefirsttimeaCaliforniacourtheldthataCEQAleadagencymust41analyzeconsistencywithEOS‐03‐05tohaveanadequateanalysisofGHGemissions;however,this42
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 19 March 2015
goalwasreaffirmedintheSanDiegoCountyCAPcase.TheSANDAGrulingraisesanumberof1questions,including:2
Howshouldplansanalyzeemissionsbeyond2020?Thecourtdecisiondidnotexplicitlystate3thattheEOconstitutedathreshold,butsuggestedthattheincreaseinemissionsbeyond20204wouldbeinconsistentwiththeEO.Thereisambiguityinwhethermaintainingemissionsat52020levels,ongoingreductionspost‐2020,orstrictcompliancewitha2050targetwould6demonstrateconsistencywiththeintentofStatepolicythrough2050.Intheopinionofthe7dissentingjudgeintheSANDAGcase,thisisarolefortheLegislature,notthecourts.8
IfaplanisconsistentwithAB32butcannotconcludeconsistencywiththeEO,canthatplan9concludeasignificantimpact?ForCAPscurrentlybeingdeveloped,jurisdictionsusually10demonstratecompliancewithAB32.Somealsoshowreductionsbeyond2020,butnonehave11afullyfundedplantoachieve2050reductionsconsistentwiththeEO.Iftheplanisnot12consistentwiththeEO,cantheCAPbeconsideredaGHGreductionplanunderCEQA13GuidelinesSection15183.5?Ifnot,jurisdictionsmaybedissuadedbythecostofpreparinga14CAPwithouttheincentiveofCEQAtieringfromtheCAPforindividualprojects.15
Whataretheimplicationsforlong‐termplanning?Asnotedbythecourt,SANDAGwasnot16requiredtoplanoutto2050initsRTP/SCS.Shouldagenciesavoidlong‐termplanningto17avoidtheuncertaintyinGHGemissions?Near‐termGHGreductiongoalsareeasiertoattain,18duetoStateandfederallegislationtoreduceemissionsfromenergyandtransportation19sectors.Agenciespreparinggeneralplans,CAPs,RTPs,andotherprogrammaticdocuments20mayoptforshorterplanninghorizonstofeasiblyanalyzeGHGimpactsandidentify21reasonablemitigationmeasures.Forcertaindocumentsthisapproachmayworkwell;22however,long‐rangeplanninghasbeenusedinCaliforniatoidentifygoalsandpoliciesthat23guidethephysical,economic,andsocialdevelopmentofcommunitiesoragencies.Identifying24majordevelopmentgoalsandprojectscanbebeneficial,evenforlong‐termGHGreduction25planning,andshorteningaplanningtimecouldbedetrimental.Whathorizonyearwouldbe26appropriateisnotclear.27
TheSanDiegoCAPdecisionreiteratesthesequestionsandalsobringsnewquestionstolight:28
WhatlevelofenforcementmustbedemonstratedforGHGreductionmeasuresincludedinaCAP?29ManyCAPsrelysolelyorprimarilyonvoluntaryactionstobetakeninconjunctionwith30educationandoutreachprograms,financiallyincentivizedprograms,andcoordinationwith31agenciesthataffectemissionswithinajurisdiction.Numerousstudiesdemonstratethat32reductionscanbeattainedthroughnon‐mandatoryparticipation;however,thedecision33suggeststhatthesemaynotconstitutesufficientevidenceforassuringGHGreductions.In34addition,suggestingthataCAPcannotrelyonunfundedprogramswouldlikelyeliminate35manyoftheanticipatedprojectsincludedinaCAP.Certainlythisimpedesconductingan36analysisforreducingemissionsoverthelongterm,asmostjurisdictionsdonothavefunding37identifiedoverthespanofseveralapproachingdecades.38
Whatlevelofmonitoringwouldbeadequatetodemonstrateenforceability?TheCAPrecognized39thatsomemeasuresmayfallshortoftheiranticipatedreductions,andthereforetheCAP40shouldbeupdatedtoaccountforshortfalls.TheCAPalsoincludedanannualmonitoringand41reportingprogram.However,theCAPdidnotsetaspecifictimelineforrevision,should42shortfallsbefound.ManyCAPsdoincludelanguagetoupdatetheCAP“priorto2020,”butthis43maybeopentoscrutinyiftheupdateisnotcompletedadequatelypriorto2020toensurea442020targetcanbemet. 45
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 20 March 2015
IV. The 2050 Reduction Challenge 1
Rich Walter, ICF International 2
Contributing Author: Chris Gray, Fehr & Peers 3
InorderforalocaljurisdictiontounderstanditsroleinreducingGHGreductions,itisfundamental4tounderstandthepotentialeconomic,technological,andregulatoryscenariosshapingGHG5reductionsinthepost‐2020period.Academic,governmentagency,andotherresearchonpotential6pathwaysforCaliforniatoachieve2050reductiongoalsaresummarizedinthissection.7
2050 Scenarios 8
Potential2050scenariosfromavarietyofstudiesaresummarizedbelow.Onestudy(Greenblattand9Long2012)isreviewedindetailtoillustratesomeofthevariablesthatdrivefuturescenarios.A10comparisonoffuturescenariosoverallisthenprovidedbasedonarecentUCDavisstudy(Morrison11etal.2014).Subsequentscenariosarereviewedmorebrieflythanthemoredetailedpresentationof12GreenblattandLong(20120),butsimilardiscussionofkeydriverscanbefoundinthesourcestudy13documentation.14
California's Energy Future: The View to 2050 15
GreenblattandLong(2012)analyzedchangesinCalifornia'senergysystemsthatwouldbe16necessarytoreduceemissionsto60percentand80percentbelow1990levelsby2050.17
Theauthorsfirstanalyzedwhatwouldbeneededtoachievealevel60percentbelow1990levels18usingenergysystemstechnologiesthatareavailableorindemonstrationtodayassummarized19below.20
IncreaseEfficiency.Allbuildingswouldeitherhavetobedemolished,retrofitted,orbuilt21newtoveryhighefficiencystandards.Vehiclesofallsortswouldneedtobemade22substantiallymoreefficient.Industrialprocesseswouldneedtoadvancebeyondtechnology23availabletoday.24
RequireElectrification.Widespreadelectrificationwherevertechnicallyfeasiblewouldbe25required,throughtheuseofhybridorall‐electricvehicledrivetrains,heatpumpsforspace26andwaterheating,andspecializedelectricheatingtechnology(microwave,electricarc,etc.)in27industrialapplications.28
UseLowCarbonElectricity.Thedemandforelectricitygenerationwouldhavetobemet29withcombinationsofnuclearenergy,fossilfuelswithcarboncaptureandsequestration(CCS),30andrenewableenergy.Emissionsfrombalancingsupplyanddemandatalltemporaland31spatialscaleswouldalsoneedtobeconsidered.32
UseLowCarbonFuels.Asmuchaspossible,thedemandforfuelwouldneedtobemetwith33lownetlifecycleGHGbiofuels.34
Theauthorsconcludedthatwiththesefourstrategiesitwouldbetechnicallypossibletoachieve35reductionsapproximating60percentbelow1990levels.However,therearesomesubstantial36challengestoimplementingthesestrategies,asexplainedbelow:37
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 21 March 2015
ElectricitySupply.Atpresent,itisillegaltoexpandnuclearpowerinCaliforniaunlessa1solutiontothepermanentstorageofnuclearwasteisresolved.CCShasnotbeensuccessfully2deployedatscale,andisbestconsideredexperimentalatthistime.Scenarioswithhigh3fractionsofwindandsolarenergycreatemoreseverechallengesforloadbalancing(i.e.,4providingpowerwhenthewindisn’tblowingorthesunisn’tshining).5
ElectricityLoadBalancing.Loadbalancingbecomesamorecriticalissuewithincreased6electrificationandincreaseduseofintermittentrenewableenergysources.Atpresent,the7mostfeasibleloadbalancingsourceisnaturalgas.Asafossilfuel,increaseduseofnaturalgas8willfrustrateemissionreductiongoalsintime.Zeroemissionsloadbalancing(ZELB)9technologiesincludeelectricitystorage,flexibledemandmanagement,andpossiblyother10strategies.GreenblattandLongdidnotanalyzethelikelihoodofachievinganyparticular11technologyforaccomplishingZELB,andthisissuewasidentifiedasclearlydeservingof12furtherstudy.13
BiomassFuelSupply.Fortransportationandstationaryusesthatcannotbeelectrified,14GreenblattandLongstatethatasubstantialincreaseofbiomass‐producedfuelswillbe15needed.Theyestimatethatperhaps13to42percentofthemediansupplyneededcouldbe16metfromCaliforniawasteproducts,cropresidues,anduseofmarginallandswiththe17remainderfromout‐of‐stateandout‐of‐countrysources.Theauthorsnotethereissubstantial18uncertaintyastotheworldwidesupplyofbiomassfuelsandalsoincalculatingGHGintensities19forbiofuels.20
Inanalyzingwhatwouldbeneededtoachievealevel80percentbelow1990levels,Greenblattand21Longexaminedmoreradicalmeasuresbeyondthosediscussedaboveinthe60percentscenario.22Theylistthefollowingtenstrategiesthatcouldreduceemissionsby80percent:23
DevelopthetechnologytomakeCCS100percenteffectiveandeconomical.24
EliminatefossilfuelswithCCSfromtheelectricitymix,andrelyonlyonnuclearenergy,25renewableenergy,oracombinationofthesesourcesformakingelectricity.26
Increasetheamountofloadbalancingthatisachievedwithoutemissionsfrom50percentto27100percent.28
Producebiomasswithnetzerocarbonemissionsbyeliminatingnetemissionsfromlanduse29change.30
Reduceenergydemandthroughubiquitousbehaviorchange.31
Producehydrogenfuel(fromcoalwithCCS)anduseittoreducefuelandelectricityuse.32
BurnalldomesticbiomasswithCCStomakeelectricitywithnetnegativeGHGemissions,33creatinganoffsetfortherequiredfossilfueluse.34
Increasethesupplyofsustainablebiomasstwofold,anduseittomakelow‐carbonbiofuels,35usingfeedstocksthatbestfitefficientconversiontotheneededenergymix.36
GasifycoalandbiomasstogetherwithCCS,anduseittomakelow‐carbonfuelsplussome37electricity.38
UsingCCS,convertbiomasstofuels(plussomeelectricity)withnetnegativeGHGemissions,39creatinganoffsetfortherequiredfossilfueluse.40
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 22 March 2015
Onlythelastthreestrategiesaresufficient,ontheirown,toachievethe80percentreductiontarget1(ontopofthe60percentmeasures).Therearemyriadtheoreticalcombinationsthatcouldachieve2the80percentreductiontarget.Theauthorsstressthat"thechallengesaregreatforimplementing3evenoneofthesestrategies,letaloneseveral."Asanexampleofthemagnitudeofchallenges,the4authorsnotethat,"Itispossibletoconceiveofbiomass‐derivedenergywithoutdisastrousimpacts5onfoodsupply,ifthebiomassforenergyproductionislimitedtomarginallands,wastesandoff‐6seasoncovercrops,butthisisnotsomethingtotakeforgranted."Anotherexampleofchallengesthe7authorsdescribeisthat"thewidespreadavailabilityofCCSisnotaforegoneconclusion;much8developmentworkremainstobedone."9
Asshouldbeevidentfromthisreviewabove,thechangesneededstatewidearesubstantialand10severeandwouldrepresentfundamentalchangeinCalifornia'senergysystem—manyofwhichare11outsidethejurisdictionofindividualcitiesandcounties.12
Summary of Other 2050 Scenario Studies 13
SeveralotherresearchgroupshavebuiltintegratedenergyplanningmodelsforCaliforniathat14estimatethefuturetrajectoriesoftechnologies,fuels,infrastructure,and/oreconomicimpacts15(ARB‐VISION–ARB2012;BEAR‐Roland‐Holst2008;CCST–GreenblattandLong2012;PATHWAYS16‐Williamsetal.2012;CALGAPS‐Greenblatt2014;WWS‐Jacobsonetal.2014;SWITCH‐Nelsonet17al.2014;LEAP‐Weietal.2014;andCA‐TIMES‐Yangetal.2014).Morrisonetal.(2014)reviewed18thesestudiesindetailandthesummarybelowdrawsdirectlyfromtheirwork.19
Acrossmodels,theBAU2050scenarioshaveawiderangeofemissions.Themodelswiththehighest20BAUGHGemissionarethosewiththehighestpopulationandincomeassumptions.HigherBAUGHG21emissionmeansmoreeffortwouldbenecessarytoreachthe2050goals.Inscenariosthatachieve22deepreductionsinGHGsby2050,theGHGemissionswithpolicyinterventionsalsovarywidely.23Achievableemissionsfor2030inthesestudiesrangedfrom8to49percentbelow1990levelsand242050emissionsrangedfrom59to84percentbelow1990levels(Morrisonetal.2014).25
Therearevariousfactorsdrivingthedifferencesbetweenthescenarioresults.Forexample,26forecastsformarketadoptionoftechnologiesarebasedonadiversityofmethods.Theadoptionrate27istypicallyrelatedtoanunderlyingtechnologyreviewoftheliteratureorforecasts,butthemethod28ofapplicationvaries.OptimizationmodelsalsohaveanadditionalsetoffactorsthatdrivetheirGHG29reductions,includingtherelativecostsofmitigation,discountrate,thedesignofoptimization30algorithms,andotherfactors.31
Power Sector 32
Between2001and2013,electricitygenerationinCalifornia(includingbothin‐stateandnet33imports)increasedfrom267Terrawatt‐hours(TWh)to296TWh,andthecorrespondingrenewable34fractionofgeneratedenergyincreasedfrom14to20percent.AcrossBAUscenariosmodeledinthe35variouslong‐termscenariostudiesnotedabove,thetotalpowergenerationfromin‐stateand36importedelectricityrangesfrom356to389TWhby2030,and429to518TWhby2050(Morrison37etal.2014).Theseresultsreflectbothanincreaseddemandforelectricityaswellasincreased38electrificationofuses,suchasanincreasedtransportationuseofelectricity.39
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 23 March 2015
Renewables 1
Acommonresultacrossthelong‐termreductionscenariosisthattheelectricitygridshiftstowards2renewablegeneration—particularlyafter2030—andmostend‐usesareelectrifiedby2050.3Becausesomesectorscannotbeelectrifiedoraredifficulttodecarbonize(suchasaviation,marine,4heavydutyroadfreight,etc.),GHGemissionsfromtheelectricitygridwilllikelyneedtobereduced5beyond80percenttosupportanoverallgoalforallsectorsof80percentbelow1990levels.Across6differentscenarios,therenewableportionoftotalgenerationrangesfrom30to85percentby2030,7and38to100percentby2050,withthemajorityofnewgenerationcomingfromwindandsolar.In8general,thelowervaluesintheserangesreflectscenarioswithgreaternuclearand/orCCSuse9(Morrisonetal.2014).10
Nuclear and CCS 11
Californiahasonlyoneoperationalnuclearpowerplant(DiabloCanyon)providing2.1GWofpower12totheState.Thepermitforthefacilityexpiresin2024butcanberenewed.Nonewnuclearpower13plantsareunderconstructionorplanned.Scenariomodelsdifferintheirrepresentationoffuture14nuclearpower.CCSalsohasdiverserepresentationacrossmodels.Allmodelshaveatleastone15scenariowithnaturalgasCCSandsomealsohavecoalCCS(Morrisonetal.2014).16
Growth Rate of Power Grid 17
Acrossscenarios,theimpliedbuildoutrateofin‐stateplusimportedrenewableelectricity(mostly18solarandwind)rangesbetween0.2to4.2GWperyearfrom2013until2030,withanaverageof0.819GWperyear.Therenewablebuild‐outrateincreasestobetween1.5to10.4GWperyearfrom203020until2050,withanaverageof3.9GWperyear(Morrisonetal.2014).Forperspective,from2001to212013therenewablecapacityusedbytheState(in‐stateandimportedelectricity)expandedby0.722GWperyear,whilenon‐renewablecapacityexpandedby1.6GWperyear(CEC2014).23
Electricity Imports 24
Modelsvaryintheirassumptionsaboutimports,withsomeassumingCaliforniaremainsanet25electricityimporter,andothersassumingelectricityimportsarephasedout;stillothersmake26assumptionsabouttheelectricitymixoutofStateorareneutralregardingthelocationsofelectric27generationplantsneededtomeetCalifornia’sdemand(Morrisonetal.2014).28
Passenger Transportation Sector 29
Astandardpracticeamongtransportationenergymodelsistomakeassumptionsaboutfuture30energyservicedemand(e.g.,statewideVMT)andthenallowthemodeltoestimatefuturefuelmix,31vehicle/technologymix,andemissions.ThemodelsreviewedbyMorrison(2014)allfollowthis32practice.Thelowerthefuturedemandassumptions,thelesstheneedforlow‐GHGemittingfuels33(Morrisonetal.2014).34
Forexample,inthereductionscenarioscitedabove,statewideVMTforlight‐dutyvehiclesis35assumedtochangefrom293billionmilesperyearin2010to226to600billionmilesperyearin362050.TherangeofthevariousVMTassumptionsisaresultantwidevariationintheprojected37energymix(Morrisonetal.2014).38
Totallight‐dutyvehicleenergydropsfrom2010to2030andagainfrom2030to2050indeep39reductionscenariosinmostscenariosdueto(1)underlyingassumptionsaboutenergyservice40
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 24 March 2015
demanddecreasesinfutureyears,and(2)theimprovedefficiencyoflightdutyvehicletechnology.1Acrossthestudiedscenarios,petroleumconsumptiondeclines39to59percentby2030and58to2100percentby2050asthelight‐duty‐vehiclefleetmovesprimarilytobatteryelectric,plug‐in3hybridelectric,andhydrogenfuelcellvehicles(althoughthecompositionandmagnitudeofchange4variesbetweenscenarios).Regardlessoftheexactfleetcomposition,hydrogenandelectricitywith5near‐zerolife‐cycleGHGs(e.g.,fromwind,solar,biomass,naturalgaswithCCS)isneededtopower6virtuallyallofthelight‐dutyvehiclefleetby2050(Morrisonetal.2014).7
LocaljurisdictionshaveakeyroleininfluencingVMToutcomesgiventheircontroloverlocalland8useandtheirinfluenceoverplacementofnewdevelopmentrelativetotransitsystems.9
Contribution from Bioenergy 10
AcrossmostmodelsreviewedbyMorrisonetal.(2014),between4to15billiongallonsofgasoline11equivalent(BGGE)areavailablein2050,upfromabout1.0BGGEtoday.Mostmodelsmakesimple12assumptionsregardingthecarboncontentofbioenergy.Acrossthescenariosreviewed,bioenergy13accountsforamaximumofabout40percentoftransportationenergyin2050.Notalllong‐term14energymodelingassumesthatlargequantitiesofbiofuelsareneededinthetransportationsector.15TheWWSmodel,forexample,presentsavisionof2050withoutbioenergy,relyinginsteadon16batteryelectricityandhydrogenforthetransportationsector(Morrisonetal.2014).17
Non‐CO2 Emissions 18
Therelativecontributionofnon‐energyandHighGlobalWarmingPotential(HGWP)GHGstooverall19emissionslevelsislikelytoincreaseinthecomingdecades.Greenblatt(2014)andWeietal.(2013)20findthat,absentfurtherpolicy,theseemissionscouldexceedthe2050emissiongoalevenifallother21emissionsarezero(Morrisonetal.2014).22
Economic Impacts of Deep GHG Reductions 23
TheeconomicimpactofdeepGHGreductionsvariesgreatlyacrossthestudiesreviewedbothin24termsofwhatisassumedandofwhatisestimated.Forthosestudiesthatincludeanestimateof25technologycosts,theresultsvaryduetoassumptionsregardingtechnologyavailability,costs,26learningcurves,discountrates,andpolicyactions.Ingeneral,whileinitialtechnologyandenergy27infrastructureinvestmentcostsareexpectedtoincreaseinsomesectors,thestatewideinvestment28inenergyefficiencyisexpectedtoprovidefinancialsavingsthatcanbeinvestedbackintotheState29economy,providingoveralleconomicbenefits.Improvingenergyefficiencyalsoreducescoststothe30Statebyreducingtheneedtobuildnewpowerplantsornewrefineries(Morrisonetal2014).31
EstimatesofaveragecarbonmitigationcostindollarspertonofCO2e($/tCO2e),allconvertedto322013dollars)varybetweenmodels,acrosssectors,andovertime.Forexample,intheCA‐TIMES33mitigationcostsareestimatedbytechnologyandyear,andrangefrom‐$75/tCO2eto+$124/tCO2e34between2010and2050.Williamsetal.(2012)estimatedanaveragemitigationcostacrossfrom352010to2050of$90/tCO2e(Morrisonetal.2014).Forperspective,inCalifornia’scap‐and‐trade36program,pricessinceinceptionoftheprogramhaverangedfrom$12to$24/tCO2e.37
Valuableco‐benefits(e.g.,improvedairquality,healthbenefits,etc.)arenotcapturedinmanyof38theseestimates.Formodelsthatincludemacro‐economicfeedback,calculatenetsavings,orinclude39fullaccountingofsocialcosts,savingshavethepotentialtooffsetmostoralloftheincreased40technologycosts(Morrisonetal.2014).41
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 25 March 2015
Case Study of Local 2050 “Gap Analysis:” Sonoma County 1
ICFInternational,workingfortheSonomaCountyRegionalClimateProtectionAuthority(RCPA),2hascompletedGHGinventories,forecasts,andfuturescenarioanalysisforSonomaCounty3jurisdictionsforpotentialcountyGHGemissionsfrom1990outto2050,aspartofRCPA’sClimate4Action2020initiative.5
1990and2010emissionsarebasedonGHGinventoriesforthoseyears.2020BAUemissionsare6basedontrendsinGHGemissionslocaltothecountyincludingthelocalandregionalGHGreduction7measuresalreadyinplaceby2010,aswellasontheeffectofadoptedStateemissionreduction8measures.Future2040and2050BAUGHGemissionsprojectionsarebasedonforecasted9population,employment,andothersocioeconomicfactorsbeyond2020butexcludeanyadditional10Statemeasuresbeyondthosealreadyadoptedandanylocalandregionalreductionmeasures.11
ICFconductedascenarioanalysisfor2040and2050usingtwodifferentreductionscenariosbased12ontheworkofGreenblatt(2013).ThefirstscenarioincludesonlycommittedStatepoliciesthathave13beenadoptedbasedonGreenblatt(2013)Scenario1.ThesecondscenarioincludesStatepolicies14thathavebeenconsideredbutarenotyetadopted,aswellaspotentialtechnologyandmarket15futuresbasedoncurrentproventechnologies,basedonGreenblatt(2013),Scenario3.Thesecond16scenariodoesnotrelyonanyunproventechnologiesorassumptionsaboutmarketsorpersonal17behavioralshiftsthatarethoughttobeinfeasible.18
AsshowninFigure1below,in2050,basedoncurrentcommittedStatepoliciesalone,Sonoma19Countywouldhaveemissionsapproximately20percentbelow1990levels,leavinganadditional6020percentreductiontoreachthe80percentbelow1990leveltarget.AsshowninFigure2below,in212050,basedonuncommittedStatepoliciesandassumptionsabouttechnologyandmarketfutures,22SonomaCountyjurisdictionswouldhaveemissionsapproximately65percentbelow1990levels,23leavinganadditional15percentreductiontoreachthe2050target.24
BasedonGHGreductionplanningexperiencewithlocalcitiesandCountiestodate,thelocalgap25beyondStatepoliciestomeettheAB322020targetisusuallysomewherebetween25and3326percent,dependingonthejurisdiction.WhattheSonomaCountyscenarioanalysisshowsisthatthe27localgapfor2050ishighlydependentonfutureState(and/orfederal)policyactionsaswellas28technologicaldevelopmentandmarketconditions,whichwillvarysubstantiallyfromcurrent29conditions.30
TheRCPAandSonomaCountyasawholeareexaminingaregionalgoalof25percentbelow199031for2020aspartofthecurrentClimateAction2020effort.InbothFigure1andFigure2below,the32“SonomaCountyPathto2050”showstheeffectoftheregionalgoalfor2020andthesubstantial33contributionsthatwillneedtobemadebylocalmeasurestomeetsuchagoal.Achievingsuchagoal34wouldplacetheCountyinabetterpositiononthepathtoward2050thanwouldsimplecompliance35withtheAB32goalof1990emissionlevelsby2020.36
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California Page 26
March 2015
1
2 3
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
MT CO2e
Figure 1Sonoma County 1990 to 2050 GHG Emissions Scenario:
Committed State Policy Only(2040/2050 based on Greenblatt (2013) Scenario 1)
BAU With Committed Policies Sonoma County Path to 2050
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 27 March 2015
12
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
MT CO2eFigure 2
Sonoma County 1990 to 2050 GHG Emissions Scenario: Committed and Uncommitted Policies and Technology/Market Futures
(2040/2050 reductions based on Greenblatt (2013) Scenario 3)
BAUWith Committed +Uncommitted Policies+Technology/Market FuturesSonoma County Path to 2050
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 28 March 2015
Post‐2020 Transportation Considerations 1
Regionalandlocaltransportationagenciesroutinelyengageintheanalysisofpost‐2020scenariosin2conjunctionwithlong‐rangeplanningefforts.RegionalagenciessuchasMetropolitanPlanning3Organizations(MPOs)planinfrastructure20to30yearsinadvanceusingavarietyofanalytical4tools.Theselong‐rangeinfrastructureplansarereflectedintheRTPsthatguidelong‐term5transportationinvestment.Localgovernmentagenciesengageinsimilarforecastsatthecity‐level6throughactivitiessuchasthepreparationofgeneralplans.7
Agenciespreparingtheselong‐rangeforecastsoftenfacethreechallenges,whichintroduceahigh‐8levelofuncertaintyintheprocess:9
Uncertaintyinthepreparationoflong‐termdemographicforecasts,whichareakeyinputinto10anylong‐rangetransportationforecasts.Populationandemploymentforecasting,particularly11atthecitywidelevel,oftenrequireassumptionswithahighpotentialforsubstantialerror.12
Uncertaintyregardingtransportationcosts,whichisakeyinputfortravelforecasting.Asan13example,onecansimplylookatthehistoryoffuelcostsoverthepast10years.In2008,the14nationalaveragegaspriceincreasedtoover$4pergallon,decreasinginthesubsequentyear15to$1.50,andthenincreasingtoalmost$4againin2011,withlate2014/early2015decreases16tocloseto$2,andafollowingsteadyincreaseingasprices.Giventhesechanges,itis17challengingforanyagencytoforecastoneofthemajorinputstowardstransportation18behavior.19
Uncertaintyregardingtechnologicalinnovation.Formuchofthepast100years,20transportationtechnologyhasbeenfocusedonautomobilesthataremanuallydriven.Within21thelast5years,therehavebeensubstantialinnovationsrelatedtotheuseoftechnologyfor22ridesharingthroughcompanieslikeUberandLyft.Theseridingsharingapplicationshavethe23potentialtoaffectdecisionstoownandoperateautomobiles.Anotherchangewithaneven24largerpotentialfordisruptionrelatestothedeploymentanduseofautonomousand25connectedvehicles.Allofthecurrentautomobilemanufacturersarecurrentlytesting26autonomousvehiclesforretailsale.TheVictoriaTransportationPolicyInstitute(VTPI)27predictsthatby2050nearlyhalfofthetotalvehiclefleetwillbeautonomousvehicles.This28changeisimportantsinceautonomousvehicleshavethepotentialtosubstantiallychange29travelpatternsandinfrastructureperformance.Autonomousvehicleshavethepotentialto30operatewithsubstantiallyreducedheadwaysandincreasedtravelspeeds,resultinginfar31greaterroadwaycapacities.32
Thetypicalapproachwithinatransportationstudywhenfacedwithuncertaintyistodevelopwell‐33reasonedanddocumentedassumptionsforallkeyinputvariables.Theseinputvariablesarethen34evaluatedusingrobustmathematicalmodelstoproducelong‐rangedemandforecasts.Thissame35generalapproachhasbeenappliedfor50years,butonlyrecentlyhaveplannersmadeasubstantial36efforttoverifytheaccuracyoftheirforecasts.Astudyofnearly100forecastsforroadway,tunnel,37andbridgeprojectscommissionedbyStandard&Poor(publishedinTrafficTechnology38International)determinedthatthetravelforecastsweregenerallyoffbyanaverageof20to2539percentwhencomparedtothepost‐constructiontrafficcounts(Bain2011).Insomeinstances,the40forecastswerelessthan80percentoftheobservedpost‐constructiontrafficvolumesbasedonthis41samestudy(Bain2011)42
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 29 March 2015
Becauseoftheuncertaintynotedabove,itmaybetemptingtotreatpost‐2020transportation1forecastsinacursorymanner.Thisapproachcouldbejustifiedbycitingthechallengesand2difficultiesindevelopingreasonableforecasts,butitwouldbeanattempttosidestepuncertainty3ratherthanembraceit.Analternativeapproachwouldbetoembraceuncertaintythroughtheuseof4alternativescenariosthatreflectpossiblechangesinvariables.Ratherthangenerateasinglefuture5estimateoftraveldemand,astudywouldinsteadproducesomevariationofalow,medium,and6highforecast.Thisapproachwouldprovidearangeofresultswhichwouldessentiallybracket7potentialoutcomes.8
Implications of Post‐2020 Scenario Analysis for Local Climate Action Planning 9
2050scenarioanalysis,theSonomaCountycasestudy,andreviewoftransportationforecasting10challengessummarizedabovehighlightshowachievingdeepGHGemissionreductionsintheState11willrequireacoordinatedeffortacrossallsectorsoftheeconomy.Innearlyallthedeepreduction12scenarios,therateoftransition—suchasdeploymentofbettervehiclesorrenewableelectricity—13exceedthehistoricalratesofchangeintheState.14
Potentialratesofprogressoverall(aswellasbysector)varywidelyinthestudiescompletedto15date.Inaddition,thereareinherentuncertaintiesassociatedwithlong‐termforecasting.Thisadds16uncertaintyforlocaljurisdictionsseekingtounderstandtheirroleinGHGreductionsinacontextof17changingtechnologies,energy/technologyprices,economicconditions,andregulations.18
ThereisnouniformlyacceptedsourceforGHGforecastassumptionsandmethodology.Future19regulationsbeyondthoseadoptedtosupporttheAB32targetareuncertain,andthuslocal20jurisdictionsatthistimecanonlyguessattheactualregulationsthatmayormaynotbeadopted.21
Giventhisrangeofuncertainty,whichincreasesasoneproceedsfurtherinthepost‐2020period,22localGHGreductionplanningwillneedtoincludearangeofpotentialscenariosinorderto23understandthevaryingroleoflocalGHGreductionscomparedtothoseduetoStateandfederal24policy.25
Local Climate Action Planning Examples beyond 2020 26
ThereareanumberofjurisdictionsthathavealreadybegunplanningforGHGreductionsbeyond272020.Afewexamplesarepresentedbelow.28
San Diego County Climate Action Plan 29
SanDiegoCountyadoptedaCAPin2012thatincludedananalysisandGHGreductionmeasuresto30reduceCountyemissionsto17percentbelow2005levelsby2020(SanDiegoCounty2012).31AlthoughtheCAPhasbeenputonholdreflectingthecourtrulingintheCEQAlawsuitrelatedtothe32CAP,theanalysisintheCAPofemissionsoutto2035isillustrative.33
TheCAPincludedananalysisofGHGemissionsandreductionsoutto2035,astheCAPwasintended34toalsoaddressbuildoutoftheCounty’sgeneralplanoutto2035.TheCountydevelopedan35emissionstargetfor2035thatwouldputtheCountyonapathtowardthe2050goalof80percent36below1990levels,whichwouldbetheequivalentfortheCountyof49percentbelow2005levelsby372035.Similartothe2020analysis,theCountydevelopedaframeworkforreducingemissionsby382035thatworkedwithinthecontextoftheunincorporatedCounty.Themeasuresdevelopedforthe392020scenariowerealsousedinthe2035scenariobutwithincreasedratesofparticipation.The40
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 30 March 2015
CAPassumesthattechnologywillimproveand/orwilllowerincost,makingmeasuresmorefeasible1foragreaterpercentageofthepopulation.Forexample,theresidentialbuildingretrofitmeasure,2whichassumedafeasibleparticipationrateof15percentby2020,wasincreasedto90percent3participationrateby2035.4
Assumingaggressivebutfeasiblegoals,thelocalactionsanalyzedbytheCountyshowedthatthey5couldachieveemissions14percentbelow2005levelsby2035.Whilethisdoesnotachievethe496percentbelow2005levelsreductiontarget,theassumptionsforthe2035scenarioincludedonly7currenttechnologyandexistingStateandfederalregulations.TheCAPdescribedthatStateand8federalactionsaccountformorethan55percentofthereductionsneededtoachievethe2020goal,9butsincetheyarefrozentoexistingactions,theyonlyaccountfor34percentofthereductions10neededtoachievethe2035goal.TheCAPidentifiesthatmeetingGHGreductiongoalsbeyond202011willrequireevengreaterparticipationinexistingmeasures,inclusionofadditionalmeasures,12guidancefromStateandfederalauthorities,additionalStateandfederalregulation,improved13technology,andinfrastructurechanges.TheCAPincludedanalternative2035scenarioanalysis(as14anappendix)todemonstratethatthe49percentreductiontargetcouldonlybemetwithadditional15federal,State,andlocalmeasures.Additionalmeasuresincludedachieving44milespergallon16averagefuelefficiencyamongallon‐roadvehicles(notjustnewmodelyears),a50percentRPS,and17retrofittingallpre‐2005residentialunitstoachieve35percentgreaterenergyefficiency.SanDiego18CountyintendstorevisittheCAPperiodically,andupdateandexpandbeyondtheadoptedmeasures19for2020overtimetosupportmeetingthe2035target.20
San Bernardino Regional Greenhouse Gas Reduction Plan 21
Twenty‐onepartnershipcitiesinSanBernardinoCountyworkingthroughtheSanBernardino22AssociatedGovernments(SANBAG)collaboratedtocreatetheSanBernardinoRegionalGHG23ReductionPlan(SANBAG2014)thatincludedcustomizedGHGreductionplansforeach24participatingcitytoreachcity‐identified2020GHGreductiontargets.Collectively,theindividualcity25commitmentswouldresultintheregionreturningto1990emissions(approx.11.5MMTCO2e)or26lowerin2020.27
TheRegionalPlanalsoincludesrecommendationsforpost‐2020GHGreductionplanningand28action.Beginningin2018,itisrecommendedthatthepartnershipcitiesandSANBAGcommence29planningforthepost‐2020period.Atthispoint,thepartnershipcitieswouldhaveimplementedthe30firstphasesoftheirlocalCAPs,andwouldhaveabetterunderstandingoftheeffectivenessand31efficiencyofdifferentreductionstrategiesandapproaches.Thenewpost‐2020reductionplan32shouldincludeaspecifictargetforGHGreductionsforatleast2030,andifsupportedbylong‐term33planningattheStatelevel,shouldalsoincludepreliminaryplanningfor2040and2050.Thetargets34shouldbeconsistentwithbroaderStateandfederalreductiontargetsandwiththescientific35understandingofthereductionsneededby2050.Itisrecommendedthatpartnershipcitiesadopt36thepost‐2020reductionplanbyJanuary1,2020,whichwouldrequirecitiestostartanew37inventory/assessmentprocessby2017or2018atthelatest.38
Theregionalplanalsoincludedananalysisofemissiontrajectoriesfortheparticipatingcitiesoutto392030.Tostayoncoursetowardthe2050target(2.3MMTCO2e),theregion’sGHGemissionsneed40tobereducedtoapproximately8.4MMTCO2eby2030.Thistranslatestoanaveragereductionof412.9percentperyearbetween2020and2030,oranadditional3.3MMTCO2einreductionsduring42theperiod2020to2030.Anadditionalchallengecomesfromthefactthatthepopulationinthe43region(sumofparticipatingcitiesconsideredinthisanalysis)willcontinuetogrowbetween202044
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 31 March 2015
and2030(estimatedpopulationgrowthinthestudyisfromapproximately1.73millionin2020to11.96millionin2030).Takingintoaccountpopulationgrowth,per‐capitaemissionswouldneedto2decreaseatanaveragerateofapproximately0.2MTCO2eperpersonperyearduringthe2020to32030period.ThemeasuresneededarelogicalexpansionsoftheprogramsrecommendedintheAB432ScopingPlanattheStatelevel,andthemeasuresincludedintheRegionalPlanatthelocallevel.5BybuildingonplannedStateeffortsduringthisperiod,andrampedupeffortsinthelocalbuilding6energyandtransportation(andother)sectorsonthepartofthelocalgovernments,theregioncan7beontracktoreacha2050goalthrough2030.8
AssumptionsaboutStateactionwerebasedonanARBscenarioanalysisfor2030includedinthe92008AB32ScopingPlan,asfollows:10
Expandvehicleefficiencyregulationstoachievea40percentfleet‐widepassengervehicle11reductionby2030(approximatelydoublethealmost20percentexpectedin2020).12
IncreaseCalifornia’suseofrenewableenergyinelectricitygeneration(beyondthe33percent13plannedfor2020).14
Reducethecarbonintensityoftransportationfuelsby25percent(afurtherdecreasefromthe1510percentlevelsetfor2020).16
Increaseenergyefficiencyandgreenbuildingefforts(sothatthesavingsachievedinthe202017to2030timeframeareapproximatelydoublethoseaccomplishedin2020).18
Usearegionalornationalcap‐and‐tradesystemtofurtherlimitemissionsfromthe85percent19ofGHGemissionsincappedsectors(TransportationFuelsandotherfueluse,Electricity,20Residential/CommercialNaturalGas,andIndustry).21
PartnershipcitiesinSanBernardinocandotheirparttobeontrackthrough2030tomeetthe205022goalbyimplementingthefollowing:23
Increaseenergyefficiencyandgreenbuildingefforts(forcitymunicipalbuildingsaswellas24privatebuildingsintheregion)sothatthesavingsachievedinthe2020to2030timeframe25areapproximately81percentthoseaccomplishedin2020.26
ContinuetoimplementlanduseandtransportationmeasurestolowerVMTandshifttravel27modes(assumedimprovementof8percentcomparedtotheunmitigatedcondition,whichis28withinSCAG’sassumedrangeof8to12percentofGHGreductionsfor2035).29
Capturemoremethanefromlandfillsreceivingregionalwaste,movebeyond75percentlocal30wastediversiongoalfor2020,andutilizelandfillgasfurtherasanenergysource.31
Continuetoimprovelocalwaterefficiencyandconservation.32
Continuetosupportandleverageincentive,rebate,andotherfinancingprogramsfor33residentialandcommercialenergyefficiency,andrenewableenergyinstallationstoshorten34paybackperiodandcostsandtodevelopprogramsthatencourageincreaseduseof35small‐scalerenewablepowerasitbecomesmoreeconomicallyfeasible.36
Theconceptualeffectsofthesestrategieswouldrepresentanapproximatedoublingofeffortfor37mostcitiesfromthatplannedattheStateandcitylevelfor2020.Intotal,themeasuresdescribed38abovewouldproducereductionstobringtheregion’sGHGemissionstoanestimated8.4MMTCO2e.39WhilethepotentialmixoffutureGHGreductionmeasurespresentedintheRegionalPlanscenario40analysisisonlyaconceptualexample,itservestodemonstratethatthecurrentmeasuresintheAB41
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 32 March 2015
32ScopingPlanandtheRegionalPlancannotonlymovetheregiontoits2020goal,butcanalso1provideanexpandableframeworkformuchgreaterlong‐termGHGemissionsreductions.2
Examples from Outside California 3
NYC Pathways to Deep Carbon Reductions 4
NewYorkCity(NYC)hascommittedtoreduceitsGHGemissionsby30percentbelow2005levels5by2030(“30by30”)aspartofitslong‐termsustainabilityagenda,PlaNYC.Asof2013,emissions6havebeenreducedby19percentandthusthecityisapproximatelytwo‐thirdsofitswaytothe“307by30”goal.8
NYCconductedastudyofpotentialtoachievedeeplong‐termcarbonreductionsthatisfeasibleand9mindfulofeconomicimpacts(NYC2013).Thegoalofthestudywastoexamineifitwaspossibleto10achieveareductionto80percentbelow2005levelsby2050(“80by50”),andiffeasibletoidentify11thelowestcostpathwaysandhighestprioritynear‐termactionsneededtoreachthe2050goal.The12analysisfocusedonexistingandemergencytechnologiesratherthanfuturetechnologies.Thestudy13alsoassumednomeaningfulpriceoncarbonandacontinuedlackofcomprehensivefederalpolicy.14
Asummaryofthestudyresultsareasfollows:15
NewYorkCitycouldachieve“80by50”butitwouldbeexceptionallydifficult.16
Thiswouldrequirechangeatanunprecedentedandtechnologically‐untestedscale.17
Itwouldrequirelargeinvestmentsinenergyefficiency,cleanerenergysources,wholesale18transitiontolow‐carbontransportationtechnologies,andthetransformationofthesolid19wastesector.20
Uptotwo‐thirdsoftheinvestmentcouldbecosteffective,buttherestwouldyieldlittleto21nopayback.22
Marketbarrierswouldneedtobeovercomeeverystepoftheway.23
Actiononallfrontswouldbeneeded.24
Everysection,marketsegment,andtechnologyapplicationwouldrequireaction.25
Acceleratingnear‐termactionwouldincreasethelikelihoodofachieving“80by50.”26
Meetingthe2050targetwouldrequireconsistentprogressyear‐inandyear‐out.27
Meetingthe“30by30”target10yearsearlierin2020wouldputthecityonthetrajectoryto28meetthe2050target.29
Abatementpotentialfrom2050BAUemissionsweresplitamongmeasuresasfollows:30
newbuildingenergyefficiency(5percent);31
existingbuildingenergyefficiency(33percent);32
buildingfuelswitchfromfossilfuelstorenewableorlow‐carbonenergy(10percent);33
cleanpower(12percent);34
distributedgeneration(5percent);35
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 33 March 2015
transportationreductionsthroughexpandedtransitandacceleratedadoptionofcleaner1technologiesforprivateandpublicvehicles(13percent);and2
solidwastereductionsthroughsourcereductiondiversion,recycling,andimprovedwaste3processinginfrastructure(7percent).4
Thestudydescribesthatalthoughitistheoreticallypossible,thecitycouldnotrealisticallyachieve5“80by50”byactingalone.Federaland/orregionalactionwouldbeneededtocreatealevelplaying6fieldandsendapricesignaltotheentiremarketplace.Unilateralactions,incontrast,couldcreate7marketdistortionsandinefficientoutcomes.Thestudyalsonotesthatthe“80by50”targetmaynot8betherightgoalforNewYorkCity,asitisalreadyfarmoreenergyefficientthanmostpartsofthe9UnitedStatesalready.10
United Kingdom Pathways to 2050 11
The2008ClimateChangeActintheUnitedKingdom(UK)establishedalegallybindingclimate12changetargettoreducetheUK’sGHGemissionsbyatleast80percent(fromthe1990baseline)by132050.14
TheUKgovernmentistryingtoachievethisreductionthroughactionnationallyandinternationally.15Movingtoamoreenergyefficient,low‐carboneconomywillhelpthemmeetthistarget.Itwillalso16helptheUKbecomelessreliantonimportedfossilfuelsandlessexposedtohigherenergypricesin17thefuture.18
TomakesurethatitsgovernmentpoliciescontributeeffectivelytoourGHGreductiontargets,the19UKis8:20
settingcarbonbudgetstolimittheamountofGHGstheUKisallowedtoemitoveraspecified21time;22
usingstatisticsonGHGemissionsandfurtherevidence,analysis,andresearchtoinform23energyandclimatechangepolicy;24
usingtheEuropeanUnionEmissionsTradingScheme(EUETS)todeliverasubstantial25proportionoftheUK’scarbonemissionreductionsbetween2013and2020;26
usingasetofvaluesforcarbontomakesureprojectandpolicyappraisalsaccountfortheir27climatechangeimpacts;and28
usingthe2050Calculatortoletpolicymakersandthepublicexplorethedifferentoptionsfor29meetingthe2050emissionsreductiontargets.30
TheUKisalsoseekingtoreducethedemandforenergybyhelpingpeopleandbusinessestouse31energymoreefficientlythroughthefollowingmeansby:32
reducingdemandforenergywithsmartmetersandotherenergy‐efficientmeasuresfor33industry,businesses,andthepublicsector;34
reducingemissionsbyimprovingtheenergyefficiencyofpropertiesthroughtheGreenDeal9;35
8Summaryfrom:https://www.gov.uk/government/policies/reducing‐the‐uk‐s‐greenhouse‐gas‐emissions‐by‐80‐by‐2050#background.
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 34 March 2015
providingincentivesforpublicandprivatesectororganizationstotakeupmoreenergy‐1efficienttechnologiesandpracticesthroughtheCRCEnergyEfficiencyScheme10;2
reducingGHGsandotheremissionsfromtransport;3
reducingGHGemissionsfromagriculture;and4
investinginlow‐carbontechnologies.5
Low‐carbontechnologieswillalsomakeanimportantcontributiontoUKGHGreductiontargets6throughthefollowingactions:7
takingactiontoincreasetheuseoflow‐carbontechnologiesandcreatinganindustryforCCS;8
reducingemissionsfromthepowersectorandencouraginginvestmentinlow‐carbon9technologiesbyreformingtheUK’selectricitymarket;10
providingover£200millionoffundingforinnovationinlow‐carbontechnologiesfrom201111to2015;and12
Publiclyreportingcarbonemissionsfrombusinessesandthepublicsector.13
Publicreportingofcarbonemissionshelpstoencourageorganizationstobecomemoreenergy14efficient,andenablesustoassesstheprogressthat’sbeingmadethrough:15
measuringandreportingenvironmentalimpacts;16
guidanceforbusinesses;and17
askingEnglishlocalauthoritiestomeasureandreporttheirGHGemissions.18
WhiletheUK,alongwithGermany,isoneoftheinternationalleadersinGHGreductionplanningon19anationallevel,eventheUKdoesnothaveadefinitiveplanforhowtoachievetheir2050target.As20notedabove,theDepartmentofEnergyandClimateChange(DECC)hascreatedakeyeducational21tool,the2050Calculator11,toallowdecisionmakers,thepublic,andstakeholderstoconducttheir22ownevaluationofpotentialpathwaysto2050.The2050Pathwaysworkpresentsaframework23throughwhichtoconsidersomeofthechoicesandtrade‐offstheUKwillhavetomakeoverthenext2440years.Itissystemwide,coveringallpartsoftheeconomyandallGHGemissionsreleasedinthe25UK.Itisrootedinscientificandengineeringrealities,lookingatwhatisthoughttobephysicallyand26technicallypossibleineachsector.ItallowsusersoftheCalculatortoexplorealltheavailable27optionsandsomeoftheirkeyimplications.28
ItisakeyrecommendationofthispaperthatCalifornianeedstocreatea2050CaliforniaCalculator29toinformCaliforniansastheyfacethecoming2050challenge.Furthermore,thispaperrecommends30
9TheGreenDealisanambitiousandlongterminitiativedesignedtoupgradetheenergyefficiencyofBritain’shomes.Itletshouseholdersandbusinessespaytowardsthecostofenergy‐savingimprovementstotheirproperties,overtime,throughsavingsontheirenergybills,usingsupplierstheycantrust10TheCRCEnergyEfficiencyScheme(orCRCScheme)isdesignedtoincentivizeenergyefficiencyandcutemissionsinlargeenergyusersinthepublicandprivatesectorsacrosstheUK,togetherresponsibleforaround10percentoftheUK’sgreenhousegasemissions.Participantsincludesupermarkets,watercompanies,banks,localauthoritiesandallcentralgovernmentdepartments11The2050Calculatorisavailableonlinehere:https://www.gov.uk/2050‐pathways‐analysis
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 35 March 2015
thatsuchacalculatorbepreparednotonlyfortheStateasawhole,butthatthemodelbeextended1toallowlocaljurisdictionstoexaminetheirlocalemissionsaswellusingdifferentscenarios.2
V. CEQA, General Plans, and Climate Action Plans for 3
the Post‐2020 Horizon 4
Nicole Vermillion, Placeworks; Rich Walter, ICF International; Dave Mitchell, First Carbon 5
CEQA Project Analysis in a Post‐2020 World 6
Forthepurposeofthissection,a“project‐level”analysisisconsideredananalysisforanyCEQA7projectwiththeexceptionofaCEQAdocumentpreparedforageneralplan.Thiswhitepaper8includesaseparatesectiononGHGemissionsanalysesforgeneralplanprojects.129
TheCEQAGuidelinesoffertwopathstoevaluatingGHGemissionsimpactsinCEQAdocuments.10
ProjectscantieroffaqualifiedGHGReductionPlan(CEQAGuidelinesSection15183.5).11
ProjectscandeterminesignificanceutilizingamodeltocalculateGHGemissionsandassess12thesignificance(CEQAGuidelinesSection15064.4).13
ThissectiondiscussespotentialchangesinCEQApracticeforthepost‐2020world.14
Tiering Off a Qualified GHG Reduction Plan 15
CEQAGuidelinesSection15183.5identifiesthatprogrammaticdocumentssuchasgeneralplans,16long‐rangedevelopmentplans,orseparateplans(e.g.,GHGreductionplans/CAPs)canbeprepared17byleadagenciestomitigatetheGHGemissionsimpactswithinajurisdiction.Ifajurisdictionhas18adoptedaqualifiedGHGReductionPlan,thenindividualCEQAprojectsthatareconsistentwiththe19GHGReductionPlanmayhavelessthansignificantGHGemissionsimpacts.20
Plansthatmeetthefollowingcriteriaaredefinedas“qualified”GHGreductionplans,eligibletobe21thebasisforCEQAstreamlining,asfollows:22
QuantifyGHGemissions,bothexistingandprojected,overaspecifiedtimeperiod,resulting23fromactivitieswithinadefinedgeographicarea;24
Establishalevel,basedonsubstantialevidence,belowwhichthecontributiontoGHG25emissionsfromactivitiescoveredbytheplanwouldnotbecumulativelyconsiderable;26
IdentifyandanalyzetheGHGemissionsresultingfromspecificactionsorcategoriesofactions27anticipatedwithinthegeographicarea;28
12Generalplansarealong‐rangeplanningtoolthattypicallygoesbeyondthetargetyearforAB32of2020.Inaddition,aleadagencymayintegratethegeneralplanwithaGHGreductionplan.Therefore,whilespecificplans,areaplans,andgeneralplansaretypicallytreatedas“program”levelCEQAdocumentsunderCEQAGuidelinesSection15168,CEQAsignificancethresholdshavebeendevelopedforgeneralplansseparatelyundera“plan‐level”approach.
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 36 March 2015
Specifymeasuresoragroupofmeasures,includingperformancestandards,thatsubstantial1evidencedemonstrateswouldcollectivelyachievethespecifiedemissionslevel,if2implementedonaproject‐by‐projectbasis;3
Establishamechanismtomonitortheplan’sprogresstowardachievingthetargetlevel,andto4requireamendmentiftheplanisnotachievingspecifiedlevels;and5
Beadoptedinapublicprocessfollowingenvironmentalreview.6
Current CEQA Significance Thresholds Types 7
MethodologytoevaluateGHGemissionsimpactsinCEQAdocumentshaveevolvedconsiderably8sinceGHGemissionsbecameamandatorycomponentofenvironmentaldocuments.Yet,thereisno9singlestatewideuniformly‐appliedsignificancemetricusedbyCEQApractitionersforevaluating10GHGemissions.Rather,individualairdistrictsandotheragencies,primarilyinthelarger11metropolitanareas,haveofferedguidanceonhowtoaddressGHGemissionsimpactsinCEQA12documents.13
Althoughthereisnosinglemetricusedstatewide,therearecommonthemesutilizedbyair14districts/agenciestosubstantiatethesignificantthresholdsdeveloped.Ingeneral,therearethree15significancemetricsthathavebeendevelopedtoidentifythethresholdatwhichproject‐levelGHG16emissionsimpactsmaybesubstantial,andtherefore,significant:17
Bright‐LineThresholds.ThesearenumericthresholdsthatassesstotalGHGemissions18generatedbyaproject.Thebright‐linethresholdistypicallybasedona“capture”rateanda19gapanalysis,whichistiedbacktoAB32targetsataregionallevel.ProjectsthatgenerateGHG20emissionswhichexceedthisbright‐linethresholdaretypicallyconsideredtohavea21significantGHGemissionsimpact.Projectsthatfallunderit(withorwithoutmitigation)are22lessthansignificant.Thebright‐linethresholdcomparesthenetincreaseinproject‐related23emissionswithexistingconditions.Thebright‐linethresholddoesnotconsiderthepotential24efficienciesoflargeprojectsortheinefficienciesofsmallprojects.Asemissionsdeclinewith25implementationofGHGregulations,thenumberofprojectsbelowthebrightlinewillincrease.26
PerformanceBasedThresholds.Thesearequantitativethresholdsthatarebasedona27percentreductionfromafuture,projectedemissionsinventory,withoutanyGHGreduction28measurescomparedtothefuture,projectedemissionsinventorywithproject‐specificGHG29reductionmeasuresinplace.13BecausetheBAUscenarioisbasedona“future”condition,the30levelofsignificanceconclusionsarenotbasedontheincreaseinGHGemissionsfromexisting31conditions.However,thepercentreductionfromBAUconsidersthepotentialincreasein32efficiencyintegratedintoaproject’sdesignandoperation.Theperformance‐based33significancethresholdstemsfromtheGHGreductiontargetsofAB32,andtheinventory34and/ortargetsidentifiedintheAB322008ScopingPlan.35
EfficiencyThresholds.Thesearequantitativethresholdsthatarebasedonapercapita36efficiencymetric.Projectsthatattainthepercapitaefficiencytarget,withorwithout37mitigation,wouldresultinlessthansignificantGHGemissions.Theefficiencymetricis38typicallydefinedasa“servicepopulation”(SP),whichmeanspeoplewholiveandworkinthe39projectsite.TheefficiencymetricconsiderstheGHGreductionmeasuresintegratedintoa40
13Performance‐basedthresholdsvaryonaccountingforvariousfederalandStatepoliciesthatwouldresultinproject‐levelGHGreductions.SomeincludecertainfederalandStatemeasuresas“baseline”.
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 37 March 2015
project’sdesignandoperation,andisbasedonthenetincreaseinemissions,butthe1significanceconclusionisnotbasedonthemagnitudeoftheincrease.Liketheperformance‐2basedthreshold,theefficiency‐basedsignificancethresholdalsostemsfromtheGHG3reductiontargetsofAB32,andtheinventoryand/ortargetsidentifiedintheAB3220084ScopingPlan.Mostindividualprojectsarenotmixed‐useandhenceoftenscorepoorlyin5termsofSPefficiency,eveninmixed‐usewalkableneighborhoods,unlesstheanalysis6accountsforthebenefitsfromneighboringexistingandplanneddevelopment.7
Asidentifiedabove,thetargetembodiedinAB32foryear2020isthemostcommonthreadamong8thesignificancethresholdsdeveloped.Consequently,whilequantitativesignificancecriteriadiffer9amongairdistricts/agenciesinCalifornia,thesignificancemetricsarederivedusingasimilar10methodology.11
Post‐2020 Considerations for CEQA Thresholds 12
CurrentCaliforniaguidanceandgoalsforreductionsinGHGemissionsaregenerallyembodiedin13ExecutiveOrderS‐03‐05andAB32.14
WhileEOS‐03‐05providesalong‐termgoalfortheStatefor2020,unlikeAB32,EOS‐03‐05isnota15Legislativeaction.Therefore,thelong‐termgoalfor2050identifiedinEOS‐03‐05hasnot,todate,16carriedthesameweightinproject‐levelCEQAanalysesbecausetheLegislaturehasnotdirectedthe17Statetoprovideaplantoreachthe2050goal,oraninterimgoal.Asnotedabove,thiswasakey18issueintheSANDAGCEQAlawsuit,whichfoundthattheSANDAGEIRshouldhaveassessedthe19project’simpactonmeetingtheEOS‐03‐052050goal.20
CEQAsignificancecriteriaforGHGemissionsforbothprojectsthatidentifysignificancebasedon21consistencywithaGHGreductionplan,andprojectsthatutilizethebright‐line,performance,or22efficiencysignificancethresholds,aremainlyderivedfromtheGHGreductiontargetembodiedinAB2332.However,AB32andtheAB32ScopingPlanonlyprovideastatewideplanforachievingthe24statewideGHGemissionstargetfor2020.WhileAB32istheonlyStatelegislatedreductiontarget,25theGHGthresholdsthatutilizetheAB32targetsarelikelytoremaindefensibleunderCEQA,unless26thereasoningintheSANDAGrulingbecomeswidespreadpractice.27
Inordertodeveloppost‐2020GHGsignificancethresholds,theLegislaturewouldneedtodirectthe28Statetoidentifyaninterimgoal,anddraftandimplementaplantoachieveit.Thispost‐2020plan29wouldbeacriticaltoolinthedevelopmentofpost‐2020GHGreductiontargets.14Withoutthistool,30itwouldbedifficultforleadagenciestosubstantiatepost‐2020GHGsignificancecriteria.31Regardless,atsomepointtheproject‐levelCEQAsignificancethresholdutilizedbyleadagencieswill32needtobeupdatedtoaddresspost‐2020targetsbecausethecurrentsignificancethresholdsfor33GHGemissionsimpactsandGHGreductionplansareprimarilybasedon2020targets.Thelogical34timingforupdatingthresholdswillbewhentheStateadoptsitsfirstpost‐2020legislatedreduction35target.36
14SenateBill32(Pavley),AssemblyBill(AB)33(Quirk),andAB21(Perea)willbeconsideredinthe2015‐2016legislativesession.Asintroduced,thesebillsproposetorequireARBtoapproveastatewideGHGemissionlimitthatisequivalentto80percentbelowthe1990leveltobeachievedby2050andauthorizeARBtoadoptinterimGHGemissionsleveltargetstobeachievedby2030and2040.
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 38 March 2015
CEQA GHG Analysis Should Change in Concert with State GHG Reduction 1Planning 2
InordertoidentifyhowtobestanalyzeGHGemissionsgoingforwardfrom2015,itisusefulto3reviewhowCEQAGHGanalysishasdevelopedsince2006.4
AChaoticBeginning:FromAB32(2006)totheAB32ScopingPlan(2008)5
WiththepassageofAB32in2006,CEQAanalysesincreasinglybegantoconsiderGHG6emissions,butthemethodofanalysiswassomewhathaphazard,inconsistent,andoften7withoutanyframeworkfordeterminingsignificanceordevelopingmitigation.8
SomeearlyGHGreductionplandevelopers,includingSanFrancisco(2004)andMarin9County(2006),pioneeredclimateactionplanningbutoutsideofacontextofconnecting10CAPstoCEQA.11
PractitionersstartedtoevaluateoptionsforCEQApracticethroughtheAEPWhitePaper12(2007),theCAPCOAWhitePaper(early2008),conferencepresentations,andother13methods.14
CreatingtheNewNormal:FromtheAB32ScopingPlan(2008)toSB97(2010)15
TheadoptionoftheAB32ScopingPlanin2008,withaspecificallyarticulatedroleforlocal16jurisdictionsinGHGemissionsreductionsandaframeworkofStatereductions,solidifieda17foundationforbothCEQAanalysisandlocalclimateactionplans.18
UsingthepriordevelopmentofmethodsintheAEPandCAPCOAwhitepapers,CEQAGHG19analysisbecamemuchmorewidespread,andmoreandmoreCAPsweredevelopedand20begantobeseenasanalternativepathtoCEQAcompliance.21
KeylawsuitswerefiledcallingforGHGanalysis,includingtheSanBernardino(2008)and22Stockton(2008)generalplans.23
SolidifyingthePractice:FromSB97(2010)to“AB32+1”24
TheadoptionofSB97resolvedanylingeringdoubtsastowhetherGHGanalysiswas25requiredunderCEQA,andappellatecourtrulingsconfirmedthisconclusion.26
Thresholdswerefurtherdevelopedandadoptedbymanyairdistricts,includingBAAQMD27(2010),SJVAPCD(2010)andothers.28
CAPsweredevelopedinmanyjurisdictionsthroughoutCalifornia.Theuseofthresholdswas29upheldincourtrulings.GHGanalysisbecameuniversalforCEQAdocumentsandCAPs30becameincreasinglyusedforCEQAtiering.31
HowthentoanalyzeGHGemissionsinCEQAdocumentsforthepost‐2020world?Pragmatically,32thiscanbebrokendownintoseveraldifferenteras,asfollows:33
TheUncertainInterim:FromSanDiegoRulings(2014)to“AB32+1”tothe“AB32+1”34ScopingPlan35
CEQAGHGanalysispracticeisnowenteringanotherperiodofchange.TheSanDiegorulings36haveintroducedthequestionofpost‐2020analysis.TheLegislatureisconsideringthenext37setofStateGHGreductiontargets.38
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 39 March 2015
Forgeneralplansandmulti‐phaselargeprojectswithpost‐2020phaseddevelopment,CEQA1analysesneedtotakeintoaccountconsistencywith2020/AB32basedframeworks,but2theymustalsoanalyzetheconsequencesofpost‐2020GHGemissionsintermsoftheir3impactsonthereductiontrajectoryfrom2020toward2050.Asignificancedetermination,4asarguedinthispaper,shouldbebasedonconsistencywith“substantialprogress”alonga5post‐2020trajectory,butshouldnotbebasedonmeetingthe2050target.6
CEQAanalysisformostlanduseprojectscancontinuetorelyonthecurrentthresholdsand7currentCAPswith2020horizonsfortheimmediatefuture,especiallyifthereisactionby8theStateLegislatureandARBinthenextfewyears.Thecloserwecometo2020without9legislativeandARBactiononthepost‐2020targetsandplanning,themoreCEQAproject10analysiswillneedtoanalyzepost‐2020emissionsconsistentwith“substantialprogress”11alongapost‐2020reductiontrajectorytowardmeetingthe2050target.12
TheNextNormal:With“AB32+1”anda“AB32+1”ScopingPlan13
WhentheLegislatureadoptsapost‐2020targetandARBdevelopsadetailed,specific,and14feasiblescopingplanaddressingtheadoptedtarget,anewframeworkwillbeestablished15forCEQAGHGanalysisthatissimilartowhatexistsinrelationtoAB32andthe202016reductiontarget.17
CEQAGHGanalyseswillneedtobecompletedusingthresholdsbasedonthenewpost‐202018target.19
CEQAtieringofGHGanalysiswillneedtocomefromCAPsthatareconsistentwiththe20adoptedpost‐2020target.21
CEQAGHGanalysisofgeneralplans(andlargemulti‐phasedprojectswithlong‐termfuture22horizons)willneedtoanalyzehorizonsbeyondtheadoptedtarget.23
TheFuture:A2050LegislatedTargetanda2050TargetScopingPlan24
TheLegislaturemayadopta2030targetinthenearterm,butwillalsolikelyadopta205025target,atsomepoint.26
Inthenear‐term,anyARBscopingplanformeetinga2050targetwilllikelybeageneral27phasedapproachthatwillnotconstituteadetailed,specificandfeasibleplanofactionsuch28asthatinthecurrentAB32ScopingPlan.LackingsuchaStateplanofactionfor2050,CEQA29GHGanalysesshouldbebasedonevaluatingprojectemissionsinlightofthehorizonofState30actionplanning(whichmaybelessthan2050),and,asnecessary,basedonevaluationof31“substantialprogress”towardlonger‐termreductiontargets.32
Intime,ARBwilldevelopafeasibleandspecificplanofactionfor2050,thoughitmaybe33yearsincoming.Atthatpoint,CEQAGHGanalysiswillneedtochangeagaininordertobe34basedonfullyevaluatingprojectemissionsforconsistencywitha2050planofaction.35
General Plans in a Post‐2020 World 36
Generalplansoftenhaveroughly20yearplanninghorizons;socontemplatingtheneedforpolicy37actionstwodecadesinthefutureisnotnewtoCaliforniaplanners.Somegeneralplansalready38includepost‐2020actionstoreduceGHGemissionswithintheirlocaljurisdiction.Manyrecently39adoptedgeneralplans,forexample,includesubstantiallandusepolicyframeworksdesignedto40reduceVMTbypromotinginfilldevelopment,TOD,transit,andalternativestovehicletravelsuchas41
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 40 March 2015
bicycleandpedestrianlinkages.LanduseapproachestoreducingVMTarebytheirnaturelong‐term1effortsthatwill,inmostcases,deliveronlysmallabsolutereductionsintheshortrun(e.g.,by2020),2butcandelivermuchmoresubstantialVMTreductionsinthelongerterm(e.g.,by2035).The3generalplanisabsolutelyessentialtoGHGreductionstrategiesthatinvolvelanduseformand4spatialplanning,andlong‐termtransportationplanning.Somerecentgeneralplanshaveincluded5theadoptionofaCAPaspartofanupdate,andothershaveincludedaGHGreductiontargetand6havecalledforadoptionofaCAPtomeetthelocallyadoptedreductiontargetbyadatecertain.7Conversely,someCAPscallforrevisionstolocalgeneralplansinordertoimplementCAP‐related8GHGemissionreductionstrategies.9
Whiletherehasn’tbeenamandatoryrequirementtoconsiderclimatechangeingeneralplansfrom10theState’sGeneralPlanGuidelinestodate(althoughthismaychangesoon),CEQAchallengesto11generalplanEIRshavecreatedpressuretoincludeconsiderationofGHGemissionsthroughboth12policymeasuresandtargetsettingingeneralplans,and/orviarequirementstodothesamethrough13developmentofaCAP.14
Inthepost‐2020period,therewillbeincreasingpressuretoincludeambitiouspoliciestoreduce15GHGemissionswithingeneralplans,withthegreaterreductioneffortnecessarytoachievelong‐16termreductiontargetsbeyondAB32.Givenpasthistory,itislikelythatpressuregroupswill17continuetouseCEQAlawsuits,GHGemissions,andtheneedforlong‐termreductionstogain18leverageinanattempttoforcelocaljurisdictionstomodifygeneralplans..Asweshiftfrom202019targetsto2030targetsandbeyond,manydifferentstakeholderswillbelookingtogeneralplansto20ensurethatlanduseplanningreflectscontemporaryStatetargetmilestonesforGHGemissions.21
Optimalplanninghappensinasocialandcommunitycontextinwhichthepublic,planners,22stakeholders,anddecision‐makerscanaddressissuesofbroadconcerninabalancedway.CEQA23lawsuitscaneffectivelydistortthatdelicatebalancingprocessbyintervenersattemptingtogaina24broader,oftenpolitical,outcomethatareoutsideofthescopeandcapacityoftheplanningprocess.25Thispapertakesthepositionthatplanningisbestdonefreeofsuchpressure.Inordertokeep26generalplansfocusedondoingthehardworkofplanningforthefuture,therecommendations27belowseektoreasonablylimitthehorizonofGHGanalysisunderCEQA.Ifthisproposedchange28wereputintoeffect,itwouldenablegeneralplanstofocusonrealisticandachievablereduction29timeframesandtargets,ratherthanspendingunproductivetimeengagedinspeculativeexercises30aboutthedistantfuture.31
Climate Action Plans in a Post‐2020 World 32
CAP Target Setting 33
Thelocaltargetsettingprocessfor2020hasprovidedimportantlessonsthatcanbeappliedto34settingfuturetargets.MostCAPshaveincludedtargetsfor2020,andsomediscussreductionsto35achieveatrajectorytoward2050;buttheprimaryfocusonidentifyingreductionmeasureshasbeen36on2020.EarlytargetsadoptedpriortotheAB32ScopingPlancompletionin2008weregenerally37overlyoptimisticabouttheamountofreductionsthatwouldbeachievedbythosejurisdictions.38ChangestoCEQAadoptedbyOPRin2010provideguidanceforusingCAPsforCEQAstreamlining39andforaddressingGHGemissionsinCEQAdocuments.Legalchallengesanddecisionsongeneral40planandproject‐levelCEQAdocumentshaveprovidedsomeguidance,butwithsometimes41contradictoryresults.Thefollowingdiscussionattemptstobringsomeclaritytohowtomove42beyond2020.43
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 41 March 2015
The2014AB32ScopingPlanUpdatestatesthefollowing:1
“Localgovernmentreductiontargetsshouldchartareductiontrajectorythatisconsistent2with,orexceeds,thetrajectorycreatedbystatewidegoals.Improvedaccountingand3centralizedreportingoflocalefforts,includingemissionsinventories,policyprograms,and4achievedemissionreductions,wouldallowCaliforniatofurtherincorporate,andbetter5recognize,localeffortsinitsclimateplanningandpolicies.”6
Achievingareductiontrajectorythatisconsistentwithorexceedsastatewidetrajectoryisnota7straightforwardprocess.Thecircumstancesineachcommunitycanvaryduetodifferinggrowth8rates,climate,existingbuiltenvironment,economichealth,andlocalpolitics.TheSB375Regional9Targetsprocesstooklocalcircumstancesintoaccountandresultedinawiderangeoftargetsfor10areasaroundtheState.11
Currently,itisextremelydifficultforaleadagencyorprojecttoachievealocalpost‐2020targetin12theabsenceofastatewideplantoachieveapost‐2020target.WhilethereareGHGreductionplans13thatdoincludeapost‐2020target,thoseemissionsreductionsaresubjecttouncertaintyand14speculationabouttheamountofreductionsthatcanbeattributedtoStateandfederalreductions15beyond2020.Intheabsenceofapost‐2020targetpassedbytheLegislature,thequestionthatwill16becomeincreasinglyimportantforGHGreductionplanningiswhethershowingprogresstoachieve17post‐2020goalsissufficient,orwhethertheGHGreductionplanmustactuallyachievethepost‐182020targeteveninabsenceofaStatelegislativetargetorplanforaparticularmilestone.Thelogical19stepsinsettingpost‐2020TargetsforCAPsareto:20
Prepareabaselineinventory.21
ForecastGHGemissionsforfuturemilestoneyearsbasedongrowthforecastsforthe22community.23
IdentifyreductionsfromexistingregulationssuchasTitle24,theRPS,PavleyI/Advanced24CleanCars,andtheLCFSthatapplytoprepareanadjustedforecastwithStatemeasures.25Includefederalactions(suchasCAFEfleetvehiclestandards)whereappropriate.26
Determinepotentialreductionsfromcurrentscopingplanmeasureswithadefinitiveschedule27foradoptioninthenear‐termfuture.Scopingplanprogramswithoutareasonablecertainty28forimplementationbyadatecertainshouldnotbeincluded.29
DeterminethedifferenceinemissionsbetweenthecurrentlegislatedStatetarget(s)15andthe30adoptedandplannedStateregulations.Thisnumberistheamountofreductionsneededfrom31eitheradditionalunplannedStateregulationsorlocalmeasures.32
Identifythefeasiblestrategiesandmeasuresavailabletoclosethegap,afterconsideringthe33benefitsofregulationsonthefutureyearemissioninventory.Notethatmoredistant34milestoneyearsarelikelytoproducealargergapbecausetheeffectofcurrentregulations35maybeoffsetpartiallyorentirelybytheemissionsresultingfromcumulativeeconomicand36populationgrowthovertime.37
15ThecurrentlegislatedStatetargetisfor2020fromAB32.ThenextlikelylegislatedStatetargetwillbefor2030.TheExecutiveOrderS‐03‐05includesatargetfor2050thatshouldalsobeconsideredbutitisanargumentofthiswhitepaperthatCAPsdonotnecessarilyneedtoachievea2050targettoqualifyfortieringunderCEQAGuidelinesSection15183.5ortosupportaless‐thansignificantfindingunderCEQA.Instead,thispaperarguesthat“substantialprogress”towardpost‐2020GHGreductionsshouldbethethresholdforbothtieringandlessthansignificantfindings.
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 42 March 2015
Thereductionfromfeasiblestrategiesandmeasuresmayormaynotexceedtheamount1requiredtoclosethegapwiththelegislatedStatetarget(s).2
DifferentCAPTargetapproachesarereviewedbelowinlightofpost‐2020considerations.3
Percentbelow1990Approach.Atpresent,themostclearlyconsistenttargetwithAB32is41990emissionsby2020.Inthepost‐2020period,consistencywithStatetarget(s)willdepend5onhowtheStatedecidestoarticulatepost‐2020targets.IftheStateadoptsa“percentbelow61990”basis(suchas30or40percentbelow1990by2030),thenlocaljurisdictionscould7identifythesamepercentagebelowtheirown1990jurisdictionalemissionsastheirCAP8target.9
PercentbelowAlternativeBaselineApproach.Manyjurisdictionsdonothave199010inventoriesandhavebeenusing“proxy”inventoryyearsasabaseline,withanalternative11reductiontargettoprovidethefunctionalequivalentofreducingto1990emissionslevels.For12example,theoriginal2008AB32ScopingPlanidentifiedagoalforlocaljurisdictionsto13reduceemissionsby15percentbelow“current”(usuallydefinedas2005–2008emissions)14levelstosupporttheAB32goalofreaching1990emissionsby2020.Thus,jurisdictionsthat15haveusedanon‐1990baselineinventorywillneedtocalculatetheadditionalreductions16neededtoreachapost‐2020reductiontarget.Forexample,ifacity’s2005inventorywas17500,000metrictonsofCO2e,andtheircurrentCAPtargetwas15percentbelow2005levels,18thenthe“proxy”1990emissionslevelwouldbe425,000MTCO2e.Assuminganewstatewide19reductiontargetis30percentbelow1990levels,thentheexamplecity’s2030targetcouldbe20297,500MTCO2e(40.5percentbelowthecity’s2005emissions).21
Percentbelow2020Approach.Asnotedabove,manyjurisdictionsdon’thavea199022inventorybuthaveadoptedareductiontargetfor2020intheircurrentCAPthatisconsidered23functionallyequivalentto1990emissions.Ifthatrationaleissufficientlygrounded,thena24post‐2020reductiontargetcouldbeusedinfutureCAPupdates.Usingourexamplecityfrom25above,with2005emissionsof500,000MTCO2eanda2020reductiontargetof425,00026MTCO2ethatispresumedequivalentto1990emissions,thena2030targetcouldbe3027percentbelowthe2020target,or297,500MTCO2e.28
PercentbelowFutureBusinessasUsual(BAU)Approach.29
TherehasbeenconfusionregardingtheconceptofBAUemissionforecasts(andtargets30basedonreductionsfromBAU)amongagenciesandoppositiongroupsinvolvedwith31generalplansandCAPs.BAUforecastsareusedbyARBindevelopingcriteriapollutant32emissioninventoriesforAirQualityAttainmentPlans.BAUrepresentsemissionsforecasts33forprojectedgrowthwithoutthereductionsexpectedfromtheimplementationof34regulations.ARBappliedthisconceptintheAB32ScopingPlan.35
ThebenefitofaBAUanalysisisthatitclearlyshowstheimpactofgrowth,andtheamount36ofreductionsrequired,tooffsetgrowthandreachtheemissiontargetlevel.Thepercentage37reductionfromBAUrequiredtoachieveAB32targetshasbeenusedinmanyCAPsto38demonstrateconsistencywithAB32.CAPsthatshowemissionreductionsfromBAUatleast39asgreataswhatisrequiredbytheStateareconsideredconsistentwithAB32.40
UsingaBAUapproachbeyond2020willrequireanewScopingPlanwithStatetargetsthat41willbedeterminedincomingyears.StateLegislationiscurrentlybeingintroduced16that42
16SB32(Pavley),AB33(Quirk),andAB21(Perea).
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 43 March 2015
wouldsettargetsfor2030,2040,and2050,andwouldrequireARBtoupdatetheScoping1Plantoidentifyastrategytoachievethenewtargets.AnewstatewideBAUforecastwould2bedevelopedandthepercentreductionfromBAUnecessarytomeetanewStatetarget3couldthenbedetermined.ThisnewpercentagereductioncouldbeappliedtolocalGHG4forecaststodevelopnewpost‐2020CAPtargets.5
OneproblemwiththeBAUapproachcanbecharacterizedas“targetshift.”Astimepasses6andnewregulationsareimplemented,theamountofreductionrequiredtoachievethe7originalpercentagereductionfromBAUisreduced.Forexample,in2020,a40percent8reductionfrom2030BAUmayberequired,butin2025newregulationsandtheretirement9ofhigheremittingequipmentmayachievea20percentreductionfrom2030BAU.10Thereforein2025,alocalplanwouldneedtodeliveronlythereductionof20percentfrom112030BAU.Tokeepastabletarget,onemustmaintainthesamestartingyearuntilnew12targetsareadoptedbytheState.Otherwise,newtargetswouldneedtobedeterminedevery13yearbasedonprogressinimplementingregulationsineffectuptothatpoint.Aslongasthe14calculationsusedtodetermineprogressaretransparent,afixedpastyearbaselineisthe15simplestapproach.However,aperiodicCAPupdatebasedonprogressreportedinState16ScopingPlanupdatesispreferabletomoreaccuratelydefineandaccountfortheamountof17reductionthatremainstobeachieved.18
Climate Action Plan GHG Reduction Measures for a Post‐2020 World 19
BelowwereviewsomeconsiderationsforlocalGHGemissionsreductionmeasuresinthepost‐202020period.Thisisnotacomprehensivereviewofpotentialreductionmeasures,butisratherintended21togiveanideaofseveraldifferentstrategiesthatcanbeappliedinapost‐2020world.22
Building Energy Sector 23
Thebuildingenergysectorisnormallythesecondlargestemissionsectoraftermotorvehiclesin24cityGHGemissioninventories.Reductionsfromthebuildingenergysectorareobtainedthrough25increasedenergyefficiencyandthroughtransitiontoenergysourceswithlowerGHGemission26intensities.27
Energy Efficiency 28
Programs to Exceed State Energy Efficiency Standards for New Development 29
OneoftheprimarymeasuresencouragedbytheStateforlocalgovernmentimplementationisto30requirenewdevelopmenttoexceedStateenergyefficiencystandards.Whilethismeasureis31commendable,citiesadoptingitmustbepreparedfornearlycontinuousupdatestomatchthe32State’supdateschedule,ortoconsideritonlyatemporarymeasurependingthenextState33standardsupdate.34
FactorsforlocalgovernmentstoconsiderinadoptingregulationsthatgobeyondStateregulations35include:36
Willbuildersbeabletomeettheefficiencylevelssetbythelocalgovernmentpolicyor37regulation?CECistighteningenergyefficiencyregulationseverythreeyears,soitisdifficult38togetaheadoftheregulationsforanylengthoftime.CECconductsanextensivefeasibility39assessmentwhenitadoptsnewregulationsandworkscloselywithindustrytoensurethat40changestostandardscanbeimplementedwithoutundueburdenanddisruptions.41
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 44 March 2015
AdoptionofZNEwilleventuallylimitlocalopportunitiesforadditionalreductions.The1CPUCandCECareworkingtowardrequirementsfornewresidentialbuildingsachievingZNE2consumptionstartingin2020.OnceZNEisachieved,therewillbelimitedopportunitiesfor3localgovernmentstorequireresidentialdevelopmenttogobeyondStatestandards.TheCPUC4andCECareworkingtowardZNEforcommercialbuildingsby2030,thusfrom2020to20305theremaybemorelocalopportunitiesforreductionsinthecommercialsector.6
Doesthecityhaveresourcestotrainstaffoncomplyingwithitsownstandardsthatare7differentfromthoseofTitle24?WillcompliancesoftwaredevelopedforTitle24be8transferrabletothelocalprogram?WithTitle24beingupdatedabouteverythreeyears,isthe9citywillingtoupdateitsstandardsonthesameschedule,orwillexceedingTitle24bea10temporarymeasurependingthenextStateupdate?11
Communitiesmustconsiderwhethertheyareplacingthemselvesatacompetitive12disadvantageforattractinghighGHGproducingdevelopment.TheUniformBuildingCode13helpsprovidealevelplayingfieldforbuildingstandardsincludingthosethatrelatetoenergy14efficiency.Communitieswithhotrealestatemarketsmaybeabletopushtheenvelope15towardsefficiencybecauseitiseasierfordeveloperstoabsorbcapitalcostsinanescalating16market.Conversely,energyefficiencywillprovidevaluetowhoeverispayingtheutilitybills,17sotheextenttowhichenergyefficiencyisreflectedinpropertyvaluesisanimportantfactor.18IfallnearbycommunitiesarepushingtheenvelopebeyondcurrentTitle24minimumsaspart19oftheirCAPs,thentheycouldavoidartificialdistortionsintheirregionalbuildingmarket.20
Onesizedoesn’tfitallcommunities.Californiacoastalcommunitieshavemilderclimates21requiringrelativelylowamountsofenergyforheatingandcooling.InlandareasofCalifornia22havehottersummersandcolderwintersandcommensuratelyhigherenergyconsumptionfor23coolingandheating.Locationswithhighenergyusehavefasterpaybacksonenergy24conservationinvestmentscomparedtoplaceswithmilderclimates.25
Buildingenergytechnologyischangingquickly.TheStateispursuingtechnology‐forcingregulations26thatareanticipatedtospeedimplementationofnewtechnologies.Althoughindustryconsistently27complainsthathigherstandardswillbeimpossibletomeet,whenitcomestimeforimplementation28thetechnologyisnearlyalwaysreadyforthemarketatalowercostthanwasestimatedwhenthe29regulationwasadopted.30
ThebottomlineisthatstrivingtoachievegreaterenergyefficiencyispartofanyGHGpost‐202031reductionstrategy,butgiventherelativelyrapidshifttowardZNErequirementsfornewbuildings,32thisisastrategythatwillhavediminishingnetreturnsas2030approaches.33
Energy Efficiency Retrofit Programs for Existing Development 34
Theexistingbuiltenvironmentcurrentlyprovidesalargepotentialsourceofemissionreductionsin35Californiacities.Existinghomesandbusinesseshaveopportunitiestoimproveenergyefficiencyby36incorporatingnewtechnologieswhenremodelingorwhenreplacingagingequipment.Insome37cases,energysavingscanjustifyenergyefficiencyupgradeswhilecurrentsystemsarestill38functional.39
TherehavebeensubstantialretrofiteffortsacrossCaliforniathroughprogramslikeCalifornia40EnergyUpgradeandotherlocal,regional,andStateefforts.Whiletheseprogramshaveresultedin41implementationofseveral“low‐hangingfruit”strategiessuchaslightingreplacements,there42remainsasubstantialportfolioofpotentialretrofitsstilltobeused.43
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 45 March 2015
ContinuedeffortstoincorporatethecostofGHGemissionsintothepriceofenergy(electricity,1naturalgas)throughtheCaliforniacap‐and‐tradesystemwillhelpindividualconsumerstobetter2accountforthetotalsocialcostsofGHGemissions,whichhavenotbeenadequatelyincludedin3energypricesinthepast.Thus,therewilllikelybecost‐effectiveretrofitsinthepost‐2020world4thatmaynotexisttoday.5
Afurtherconsiderationforthepost‐2020buildingsectoristhatwiththehighlyambitiousZNE6strategiesfornewdevelopment,therecouldbeawideningdivergencebetweennewdevelopment7andexistingdevelopment,intermsofbuildinguserenergycosts.Thiscouldaddmarketpressureon8existingdevelopmentthatwouldsupportdemandformoreenergy‐efficiencyretrofits.9
Renewable Energy 10
Thesecondpartofanybuildingenergyemissionsreductionstrategyisthesupplysideofenergy.11LocalgovernmentscanconsidermeasuresthatsupportswitchingtolowerGHGintensityfuelsor12renewableenergyforelectricitytohelpmeetpost‐2020targets.13
Fuel Switching for Building Heat 14
Accordingthe2014AB32ScopingPlanUpdate,meetingalong‐term2050goalwillrequireeventual15transformationoftheenergysourcesforheatingusedbynearlyallhomesandbusinessesin16California.NaturalgasiscurrentlythepreferredfuelforheatingmoststructuresinCaliforniadueto17itsrelativelylowcostandhighefficiency.Over80percentoftheenergyusedinnaturalgasheaters18isconvertedtousableheatduringcombustionincentralheatingapplications.19
Theemissionsassociatedwithelectricheaters,althoughconsidered100percentefficientin20generatingheat,areimpactedbytheefficiency(orinefficiencies)ofthepowerplant(andits21associatedemissions),aswellasbytransmissionanddistributionlosses.Electricityforspace22heatinghasnotachievedsubstantialmarketsharebecauseithasbeenmorecostlytooperatethan23naturalgas.AccordingtotheUSDOEHeatingFuelComparisonCalculator,thefuelpriceofelectricity24averages$35.14permillionBtu,whilenaturalgascosts$10.02permillionBtu.Thisisamajor25constrainttopotentialfuelswitchingtoelectricheating.26
Forclimateswithmoderateheatingandcoolingneeds,heatpumpsofferanenergy‐efficient27alternativetofurnacesandairconditioners.Likearefrigerator,heatpumpsuseelectricitytomove28heatfromacoolspacetoawarmspace,makingcoolspacescoolerandwarmspaceswarmer.29Heatingandcoolingseasonsalternatebetweenmovingairfromtheinsidetotheoutsideofhomes,30orvice‐versa,asneeded.Becausetheymoveheatratherthangenerateheat,heatpumpscanprovide31equivalentspaceconditioningataslittleasonequarterofthecostofconventionalheatingor32coolingappliances.Asaresult,thismaybeastrategythatisincreasinglyusedforemissions33reduction.34
Furthermore,asthegridcontainsmoreandmorerenewablefractions,andascap‐and‐trade35increasinglyinternalizesGHGemissioncosts,thepricedifferentialbetweenelectricalheatingand36naturalgasheatingislikelytogetsmaller.Atpresent,withtherelativelylargedisparityincost,37large‐scalefuelswitchingdoesnotappeartobeafeasibleshort‐termstrategyandisnotincludedin38mostCAPdocuments.HoweverwithapproachingZNErequirementsinthe2020to2030period,39changingenergyprices,andanever‐decreasingGHGintensityinCaliforniaelectricity,fuelswitching40couldbeaviablestrategyinthepost‐2020period.41
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 46 March 2015
Utility‐Scale and Distributed Renewable Energy 1
TheStatehasaprimaryroleinincreasingtherenewableportfoliointhemajorelectricalutility2powergenerationmix.GovernorBrownhascalledforincreasingthecurrent33percentRPS3standardtoa50percentstandardfor2030,andlegislationisbeingdevelopedin2015toimplement4suchastandard.Thus,theStateisexpectedtocontributesubstantiallytoincreasedreductionsin5buildingenergyemissions.6
Somejurisdictions,suchascitiesinMarinCountyandSonomaCounty,havedecidedtoand7implementcommunitychoiceaggregation(CCA),whichgiveslocaljurisdictionscontrolovertheir8electricitysupplychoice.WhereCCAisdeterminedtobeviable,thosejurisdictionscanbenefitfrom9apotentiallowerGHGintensitythanwhatmightbeotherwiseprovidedbytheirutilitycompany10undertheState‐mandatedRPS.However,CCAsneedtopaycarefulattentionnotonlytotheir11qualifiedrenewablefraction(asdefinedbyCECregulation),butalsototheiroverallGHGintensity,12asthenon‐renewablefractioniscriticaltodeterminingtheCCAsoverallrelativeGHGreduction13benefits.14
Self‐generationanddistributedgenerationofrenewableelectricityviasolarorwind,andhavinga15lowGHGemittingutilityscaleelectricitysystemthatprovidespoweratareasonablecost,comprise16criticalelementsinanystrategytoefficientlyachievenetzeroenergynewbuildingsbetween202017and2030.Inaddition,distributedrenewablegenerationcanbeutilizedforexistingbuildingsto18increasethenetrenewableenergybeyondwhatmightbeachievedbyalocalutility,orevenaCCA.19
Asincreasingamountsofvariablerenewableenergy(suchassolarandwind)cometofruition,there20willbenewchallengesfacedbyutilitiesinbalancingtheirelectricalloads.Ifelectricitystorage21solutionsanddemandmanagementsolutions(suchasadvancedsmartgrids)arenotsufficiently22developed,thenloadbalancingmayneedtobeachievedbynaturalgasgeneration,atleastinthe23shortrun,whichcanreducetheGHGreductioneffectsofaddingmorerenewablegeneration.This24willbecomealargerconcerninthepost‐2020period,dependingontheloadbalancingandenergy25storagesolutionsthatprovetobeviableandcost‐effective.Localjurisdictionswillneedtobe26cognizantoftheseissuestoensurethattheGHGreductioneffectivenessoflocalmeasures27supportingrenewableenergyarenotbeingoverestimated,especiallyifthereare“debits”to28accountforinloadbalancing.Localjurisdictionscanalsobesupportiveinthisregardbypromoting29andpilotingsmartgridsalongwithutilitycompanies,includingdeploymentofsmartmetersand30similartechnologies.31
Transportation 32
GHGreductionstrategiesinthetransportationsectorarethreefold:(1)changingfuelstolowerGHG‐33intensityalternatives;(2)increasingtransportationvehicleefficiency;and(3)reducingvehicle34milestraveled.35
GovernorBrownhascalledfora50percentreductionofpetroleumconsumptionby2030.36
Fuel Strategies 37
TheStatehasledtheefforttopromotealternativefuelsfortransportationprimarilythroughthe38LCFS.TheLCFSwillnominallyreducetheGHGintensityoftransportationfuelsby10percentby392020.AnexpansionofthecurrentLCFStargetfor2030isincludedinthe2014AB32ScopingPlan40Update,andisconsideredlikely.TheStatealsoseekstopromotezeroemissionsvehicles(ZEVs)41suchaselectricalvehicles(EVs)throughanumberofprograms.TheStatealsoincentivizespurchase42
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 47 March 2015
ofalternativevehiclesthroughmeasuressuchasallowingcertainvehiclestouseHOVlaneswith1onlyasingleoccupant.2
Manylocaljurisdictionscurrentlysupportalternativefuelvehiclesfortheirmunicipalfleets.Some3localjurisdictionsalsopromotealternativefuelvehiclesthroughprogramssuchaslocal4installationsofEVchargingstationsatpublicfacilities,preferentialparkingforalternativefuel5vehicles,andothermeasures.Somelocaljurisdictionspromotereplacementoflandscaping6equipmentwithelectricalequipmentwherefeasible.However,someofthesemeasureshavebeen7suboptimaltodate;forexample,thebusinessmodelforprivateEVchargingstationshasmetonly8limitedsuccessatcurrentmarketelectricityandchargingprices.9
Lookingatthepost‐2020period,localjurisdictionscancontinuetoreplacemunicipalvehicles,10promotealternativelyfueledoff‐roadequipment,andsupportinfrastructureforelectricandother11alternativelyfueledvehicles.Localmeasuresinthepost‐2020worldwilllikelyhavegreatercost‐12effectivenessandfeasibilitythaninthepre‐2020eraduetochangingenergypricesandState13incentives.14
Vehicle Strategies 15
Federalandstategovernmentshavebeentheprimaryactorsinpromotinggreaterefficiencyfor16fossil‐fueledtransportationvehicles,throughtheCAFÉstandardsatthefederallevelandthrough17thePavely1/AdvancedCleanCarprogramsatthestatelevel.Currentprogramsincludeagoalofan18averageefficiencyof54.5milespergallonforlightdutyvehiclesby2025.Thus,localjurisdictions19willbeabletocountoncontinuingGHGreductionsinthetransportationsectorfrom2020to2025.20ItisalsolikelythattheStatewillexpandvehicleefficiencybeyond2025atsomepointinthefuture.21
Localgovernmentactionsinregardtovehicleefficiencyhaveprimarilybeenfocusedonmunicipal22purchasingpoliciesrequiringgreaterefficiencyasamajorconsiderationinfleetreplacement23planning.Whilethesetypesofprogramscanandshouldcontinueinthepost‐2020period,given24Stateandfederalregulationofvehicletechnology,theStatewillremaintheprimaryactorforvehicle25efficiencyintheforeseeablefuture.26
VMT Reduction Strategies 27
Fromthe1960stothebeginningofthiscentury,VMTandVMTperadultintheU.S.haveincreased28atapproximatelythesamerateasGrossDomesticProject(GDP).Howeversince2007vehiclemiles29traveledperadultnationwidehasdeclined,whileCaliforniawitnessedasimilardeclinebeginningin302005.Thecauseofthischangehasbeendebated.Commonlycitedexplanationsincludechanging31economicconditions(therecentrecession);changingfuelprices;agingofthebabyboomer32generation;reductionsinteendriving;changinglifestylepreferences(e.g.,urbanliving,public33transit);increasedsmartphoneuse;ariseintelecommuting;andotherfactors.Whilemanyofthese34explanationsareplausible,otherthanafocusonfuelpricesthereislittleresearchtosupport35alternativeexplanations.California’slong‐runtrendinVMTperadulthasmirroredthatofthe36countryasawhole.Inrecentyears,however,thetrendlineshavediverged:Californiansdrivefewer37milesannuallythantheaverageAmerican.California’shighfuelprices,highautomobileinsurance38rates,andseveretrafficcongestionarethoughttoexplainmostofthedivergence(Hymel2014).The39currenteconomicrecovery,ifsustained,mayhaveasubstantialeffectonVMTtrendsinthenear‐40term.Itisuncertainwhethertherecentdropinfuelpriceswillbesustained.Asustaineddropin41fuelpricescouldalsohaveaneffect,ifitweretooccur.42
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 48 March 2015
OnelessonlearnedfromCAPs,project‐levelCEQAreviews,andSB375implementationisthat1changesinVMTwillnotbeeasytoachieveonalargescaleinthenear‐term.Builtoutcommunities2havefewopportunitiestosubstantiallychangetheirlanduse.Someurbanareasarepursuinghigher3densityusesthataresupportedbytransitasaVMT–reductionstrategy.Thispushforhigherdensity4hasmetsubstantialoppositioninsomepartsoftheBayAreaandSanDiego.Fastgrowinglocalities5oftenhavelargegreenfieldareasthatallowmoresuburbanlow‐densitydevelopmentwithlimited6prospectstoreduceVMT.Somefastgrowingareashavecommittedtoinfillandhigherdensityto7achieveobjectivessuchasreducedfarmlandconversion,lowerservicecosts,andsupportfor8alternativetransportation.Itremainstobeseenwhethertheseinitiativeswillachievetheirdesired9resultsinthelongterm.10
Localjurisdictions,throughgeneralplansandCAPs,haveoftenincludedsupportforinfill,transit‐11orienteddevelopment,mixedusedevelopment,expansionoftransit,andexpansionofpedestrian12andbicyclefacilitiesaslocalstrategiestoreduceVMT.Localjurisdictionsarealsocoordinatingwith13transportationagenciesthroughSB375RegionalTransportationPlan/SustainableCommunities14Strategies,whichareprioritizingtransportationfundingtowardinfrastructurethatcansupport15long‐termreductionsinVMT.16
Inthepost‐2020period,localjurisdictionscancontinuetoexpandtheirsupportforlower‐VMTland17usesthroughcontinuedeffortsusingthestrategiesnotedabove,manyofwhichwillonlyshowtheir18actualVMTreductionpotentialonadecadalscale.19
AsvehicleefficiencycontinuestoincreaseandtransportationfuelswithlowerGHGintensitiescome20intowideruse,theeffectivenessofloweringVMTasaGHGreductionstrategywilldecrease.For21example,thefleetaveragempgof2013carsisapproximately24mpg.WithCAFÉstandards22requiringafleetaveragefornewcarsof54mpgin2025,theGHGeffectivenessofVMTreductionon23aper‐milebasiswillbeloweredby56percent.WhileVMTreductionstrategieswillcontinuetobe24importantforcongestionmanagementandaccess,localjurisdictionswillseesmallerreductions25fromVMTstrategiesasvehicleefficienciesandfuelGHGintensitieschangeovertime.26
Afurtherchallengeinthepost‐2020periodisthatincreasingvehicleefficiencycouldlowerthecost27ofdriving,dependingonwhathappenswithtransportationfuelprices.Asageneralrule,reduced28drivingcostscanincentivizeincreasesinVMT.Reduceddrivingcostscouldresultinarenewed29demandforhousinginmoreoutlyingareas,whichifauthorized,couldundermineVMTreduction30efforts.31
Solid Waste 32
Wastereductionstrategiesbylocaljurisdictionsfocusonreducingtheamountofwasteplacedin33landfills,andreducingtheamountofmethanereleasedtotheatmospherefromlandfills.34
Waste Reduction 35
NearlyallCAPsincludewastereductionasastandardGHGreductionstrategy,particularlysince36wastereductionhasbeenalong‐standingpolicyformostCaliforniajurisdictions.Sourcereduction,37reuse,andrecyclingprogramsallfitundertherubricofwastereduction.Acommongoalinmany38CAPshasbeentodivertapproximately75percentoflocalwastefromthelandfill,andmanyCAPs39includefoodwaste,compostingandothersupportingmeasurestohelpinthiseffort.Some40municipalitieshaveadoptednear‐futuretargetsofzerowastetolandfills(=100percentdiversion).41
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 49 March 2015
Inthepost‐2020period,itisexpectedthatcommonwastediversiontargetswillexceed75percent,1withmorecommunitiesadoptingzerowastegoalsalongwithexpansionofprogramsfor2constructionanddemolitionwaste,foodwastecomposting,reuserequirements,andother3measures.4
Methane Capture 5
CurrentStatelaw(AB449)requireslargerlandfillstocaptureatleast75percentofthemethane6generated.Somewasteauthorities,suchasSanBernardinoCounty,haveadoptedmeasuresintheir7GHGreductionplantoexceed75percentmethanerecoveryatsomeoftheirkeylandfills.Wasteto8energytechnologyhasbeenimprovingovertimebutcommunityconcernsaboutemissionshave9hinderedimplementationofsomeproposedplants.Ifthoseconcernscanadequatelybeaddressed,10localjurisdictionsthatownlandfillsmayseektoexpandwastetoenergyfacilities.Methane11digestersforhighorganicwaste(suchasfoodwaste)havealsobeenimplementedbysomewaste12managementauthorities.Inthepost‐2020period,localjurisdictionsthatcontrollandfillfacilities13maybelookingtoacceleratemanyofthesestrategiesaspartoflocalGHGreductionplanning.14
Other Sectors 15
Whilebuildingenergy,transportation,andsolidwasteusuallyconstitutethedominantsourcesof16emissionsunderthecontrolofalocaljurisdiction,mostCAPsaddressothersectorsaswell.17Potentialpost‐2020considerationsfortheseothersectorsarenotedbelow.18
Water 19
ManylocaljurisdictionsinCaliforniahavehadalong‐standingpolicyroleconcerningwater20conservationdueto(1)theinadequacyoflocalwatersuppliestowaterdemandsinmanypartsof21theState,(2)thecostsintransportingwateroverlongdistances,and(3)thesusceptibilityto22drought.MoststudiesoftheeffectsofclimatechangeinCaliforniaindicatethatthewatersupplyin23manypartsofCaliforniawillbeadverselyaffected.Thus,separatefromconcernoverGHG24emissions,thereareimportantsocietalgoalsachievedbywaterconservation.25
Inthepost‐2020period,watersupplywillcontinuetobeacriticalissue,anditisexpectedthatmost26localjurisdictionswillexamineandimplementtougherwaterconservationmeasures.SBX7727requiresurbanretailerstoreduceurbanwaterconservationby20percentpercapitabelow28nominal2005levelsby2020.ItislikelythattheStateorlocalentitieswillgofurtherthanthese29requirementsinthepost‐2020period.Therangeofmeasurestoreducewateruseiswellknownto30localjurisdictions(includinglandscapeefficiency,conservationoflocalsources,efficientappliances,31waterpricing,useofgreywater,etc.),buttheirapplicationisexpectedtoincrease.Severalwater32supplytechnologies,suchasrecycledwateranddesalination,areexpectedtocomeintowideruse,33andareassociatedwithincreasedenergydemandsthatcouldoffsetsomeoftheenergyreductions34fromwaterconservationmeasures.35
Wastewater 36
Localjurisdictionsthatownandoperatewastewaterfacilitiesoftenincludeimprovementsinplant37equipmentefficiencyintheirCAPs,withsomejurisdictionsconsideringmethanecaptureand/or38waste‐to‐energyschemes.Inthepost‐2020period,thesemeasuresmaybecomemorecommon39throughouttheState.40
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 50 March 2015
Industrial Point Sources 1
MostlocaljurisdictionsdonotincludeindustrialpointsourcesintheirlocalGHGreductionplanning,2althoughmanywilldisclosepointsourceemissionsinlocalinventories.GivenStateandfederal3regulationoflargeindustrialpointsources,itisunlikelythatlocaljurisdictionswillwanttoadd4localGHGreductionregulationtoavoidduplicatingorinterferingwithStateorfederalregulations.5Stateandfederalregulation—underCalifornia’scap‐and‐tradesystemand/orfederalsource6permittingundertheCleanAirAct—willcontinue,andishighlylikelytobecomemorestringent7overtime.SincemostlocaljurisdictionsexcludesuchlargeindustrialsourcesfromtheirlocalGHG8reductionplanning,thisisnotalikelysourceofadditionalreductionsforlocalGHGreduction9planninginthepost‐2020era.10
SomejurisdictionsoperateutilitypointsourcesofGHGemissionsandincludesuchemissionsin11municipalCAPs.ThesefacilitiesareusuallysubjecttoStateandfederalregulation,andutilitiesare12subjecttoRPSrequirementsaswell.Forthesejurisdictions,somemayfinditcosteffectivetoexceed13regulatorymandatedminimumsandachieveadditionalGHGreductions,butthisisacase‐by‐case14determinationandwilldependonhowdeepreductionsaremandatedbytheStateandfederal15government.16
Agriculture 17
Mostcitieshavelimitedagriculturalsectoremissions,butnon‐urbancountiessuchasCentralValley18counties,somecentralcoastcounties,andMontereyCounty,NapaCounty,SonomaCounty,and19ImperialCountyhavesubstantialagriculturalsectoremissions.Todate,mostlocalCAPshavebeen20limitedintheirapproachtoagriculturalemissions,especiallyinlightoflimitedattentiononthe21agriculturalsectorinthe2008AB32ScopingPlan.Inthe2014ScopingPlanUpdate,ARBindicated22itsintentiontofocusmoreonagriculturalemissionsinthenextroundofStatelevelGHGreduction23planning,includingestablishingagriculturalsectorGHGreductiontargetsforboththemid‐terms24and2050.Assuch,itisexpectedthatcountieswithsubstantialagriculturalsectoremissionswill25alsohaveagreaterfocusondevelopingagriculturalGHGreductionmeasuresforpost‐2020targets.26Mostagricultureisallowedbyright,withtheexceptionofconfinedanimalfacilities,sothereis27limitedlocalgovernmentalabilitytoapplyconditions.Giventhatregulationoftheagricultural28sectorisverydifferentfromotherlandusesectors,suchashousingandcommercial,itisexpected29thatcountieswillapproachagriculturalsectorreductionswithincreasedrelianceonvoluntary30partnershipswiththeagriculturalindustry,moresothanwithspecificregulatoryapproachesfor31otherlandusesectors.Sequestrationinagriculturallandscapesisaddressedseparatelybelow.32
Carbon Sequestration 33
Todate,therehasbeenlimitedfocusoncarbonsequestrationinlocalCAPsotherthanurban34forestrymeasuresfocusedontreeplanning.However,thereisasubstantialpotentialforGHG35reductionsthroughincreasingsoilcarboninagriculturallandscapes(bothincroppedfieldsaswell36asrangelands).Somelocalefforts,suchastheMarinCarbonProject17,aredemonstratingmethods37anddevelopingprotocolstosupportincreasedsoilcarboninworkinglandscapes,andtoidentifythe38potentialtoscaleuppracticestocoverlargerareaswithintheState.WithStateplanningfocusing39moreattentiononagricultureinthenextfewyears,itisexpectedthatcarbonsequestrationwill40becomealargercomponentofagriculturalcountyGHGreductionplanninginthepost‐2020era.41
17See:http://www.marincarbonproject.org/
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 51 March 2015
Outsideofurbanforestry,carbonsequestrationinworkingforestsandnaturallandscapeshasbeen1includedinlocalGHGreductionplanningononlyalimitedbasistodate.SomeCAPscallfor2restorationofripariancorridorsandotherpriorityareasforhabitatconservationpurposesaswell3asGHGreductions.The2014AB32ScopingPlanUpdatecalledfordevelopmentofa“ForestCarbon4Plan”by2016whichwillincludequantitativetargetstoincreasenetforestcarbonstorage.Thus,for5countieswithsubstantialforestedareas,theremaybeincreasingpressureandopportunitiesfor6localGHGreductionplanningtosupportStateeffortstoincreaseforestcarbonsequestration.7
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 52 March 2015
VI. Recommendations 1
Rich Walter, ICF International; Nicole Vermillion, Placeworks 2
The Role of CEQA in a Post‐2020 World 3
ThefollowingrecommendationsaremadeinlightofmaintainingandenhancingtheroleofCEQAin4supporting,nothindering,post‐2020GHGreductionefforts.5
Limit CEQA GHG Analysis to the State GHG Planning Horizon based on a State 6Legislatively Mandated Target 7
ThispaperpointstotheinfeasibilityofrequiringcompliancewiththegoalsinEOS‐03‐05asade8factosignificancethresholdinCEQAdocuments.Nothingisservedbyestablishinganimpossible9threshold,orbyanalyzingimpactssofarinthefuturethattheyrequirespeculation.Instead,the10limitofGHGanalysisforCEQAdocumentshouldbethecurrentStateGHGplanninghorizon.At11present,theonlytrueStatereductionplanistheAB32ScopingPlan,whichhasaverifiedand12quantifiedreductionstrategyonlyto2020.13
ARBispresentlyconsideringfeasibleGHGreductionstrategiesfor2030andbeyond,butlacksthe14legislativeauthoritytomandatesuchreductionsfortheprivatesectororlocalgovernmentsabsent15furtherlegislativeactiontomandatereductionsbeyond2020.Thenextlikelystepforthe16LegislatureandforARBisadoptionofa2030targetandthecreationofanewScopingPlanlaying17outtheState’splanforachievingthe2030target.AswehaveseenwithAB32implementation,local18actionisanimportantpartofachievingtheState’stargetandthiswilllikelycontinuetobetruein19thepost‐2020world.Thus,onlywhentheStatehasaplanfor2030,shouldCEQAanalysisand20thresholdsthenshiftfromthecurrent2020horizontothe2030horizon.Whenapost‐2030planis21ineffect,thehorizonshouldshiftagain.22
Set "Substantial Progress" as the Significance Threshold 23
CurrentpracticeforevaluationofGHGemissionsinproject‐leveldocumentsistouseacomparison24toathreshold,ortoevaluateconsistencywiththe“qualified”GHGreductionplan.Allthethresholds25usedinCEQAdocumentsinCalifornia,andall“qualified”GHGreductionplansinuseforCEQA26tiering,arebasedonmeeting(orexceeding)theAB32reductiontargets,buttherearenolocalGHG27reductionplansthathaveanactualplantomeeta2050targetof80percentbelow1990levels.28
Giventhecollectiveimpactof(1)thescientificimperativeforreducingGHGemissionsglobally,(2)29theexistenceofthe2050goalinEOS‐03‐05,(3)theSANDAGCEQAAppellateCourtruling,and(4)30possibleStatelegislativeactiontoadopta2050goal,therewerebesubstantialpressuretochange31theframeworkforCEQAanalysisofGHGemissionstoaccountfortheneedtomovebeyondthe322020AB32goals.33
Asarguedinthispaper,currently,localjurisdictionscannotontheirowndevelopfeasibleplansto34deliverjurisdiction‐levelemissionreductionallthewaytothe2050goalbecausetheeffortto35changetheeconomicactivityandtechnologyinusewillrequiretheactionofthefederalandState36governments,aswellasthefinancialability(throughmarketmeansorgovernmentfunding)to37implementthenecessarychanges.Whilelocaljurisdictionscanandshouldcontributetoand38supportthislongtermeffort,ontheirowntheywillbelimitedintheirabilitytodeliverthefull39
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 53 March 2015
amountofreductionsneeded.Furthermore,solvingalargecumulativeproblemlikeGHGemissions1entirelyatthesmallestlevelsofgovernmentisverylikelytoresultininefficient,cost‐ineffective,2piecemeal,and/orinconsistentsolutionsthatwilltaxthefinancialandpoliticalwilloflocal3communities.4
Evenifsomemunicipalitiesweretoagreetoademandingfuturethresholdbasedonthe2050goal,5assomeadvocatesdesire,giventhedifficultiesinachievingsuchsubstantialreductionsonaproject‐6levelbasis,theendresultislikelytobeincreasingnumbersofEIRswithmorestatementsof7overridingconsiderations,which(1)wouldnotresultinadditionalGHGreductions,(2)would8consumemorelocalgovernmenttime,effort,andcost,and(3)wouldnotinspiremotivationforlocal9governmentstoengageinholisticlocalGHGreductionefforts.10
Instead,thispaperrecommendsthatanewCEQAsignificancethresholdforGHGemissionsshould11bethefollowing:12
“Doestheprojectimpedesubstantialprogressinlocal,regional,andStateGHGemissions13reductionsovertimetowardlong‐termGHGreductiontargetsadoptedbytheState14Legislature?”15
Allow CEQA Tiering from GHG Reduction Plans that Make “Substantial Progress” 16Toward Reducing GHG Emission Impacts 17
TherecentSanDiegocasesdetailedearlierinthispaperhavethepotentialtodeterlocal18jurisdictionsfromseekingtoprepareandimplementaGHGreductionplanbecause,essentially,they19removethe“carrot”forCEQAstreamliningandcreatetoomuchuncertainty.20
WhileCEQAGuidelinesallowleadagenciestoprepareGHGreductionplansforthepurposeofCEQA21streamliningofGHGemissionsimpacts,therecentSanDiegorulings,takenatfacevalue,couldbe22interpretedtomeanthatnoGHGreductionplanascurrentlywrittenwouldmeetthecriteriaset23forthinCEQAGuidelinesSection15183.5.24
TopromoteCEQAstreamliningandencouragelocalagenciestoprepareGHGreductionplansfor25communitywideGHGemissions,theLegislatureshouldrequireachangetotheCEQAGuidelinesthat26willallowfortieringwhenajurisdictionshows“substantialprogress”towardmeetingState27legislatively‐adoptedGHGreductiongoals.28
ThisconceptisnotnewandissimilartothelanguageaddedtotheCEQAGuidelinesunderSenate29Bill226(SB226)forinfilldevelopment.SB226(2011)amendedtheCEQAGuidelinestoprovidea30streamlinedreviewprocessforinfillprojects.AsstatedinCEQAGuidelinesSection15183.3,the31purposeofthissectionistostreamlinereviewwheretheeffectsofaninfillprojecthavebeen32addressedinaplanningdecisionorbyuniformlyapplicabledevelopmentpolicies.Thisisdirectly33comparabletothepurposeandintentofGHGreductionplans,andissimilarlywritteninCEQA34GuidelinesSection15183.5.ItisclearthatGHGemissionsreductionsarebesthandledatacitywide,35regional,orstatewidelevelinordertoattaintheapplicableGHGreductiongoals,ratherthanona36project‐by‐projectbasis.ThusitismostbeneficialforajurisdictiontoprepareaGHGreductionplan37thataddressesemissionsonacommunitywidelevel,ratherthanonaproject‐by‐projectbasis.The38purposeofaGHGreductionplandirectlyalignswiththeintentoftheLegislaturewhenadoptingSB39226.40
BecausetheintentoftheCEQAstreamliningofferedunderSB226issocloselyalignedwiththe41purposeoftheGHGreductionsplansandCEQAGuidelinesSection15183.5,itimportanttonotethat42
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 54 March 2015
SB226allowsleadagenciestotieroffdevelopmentstandardsthatwould“substantiallymitigate”1theenvironmentaleffects(CEQAGuidelinesSection15183.3(b)(c)).IfCEQAGuidelinesSection215183.5wasaffordedthesameflexibilitybyallowingtieringoffaGHGreductionplanthatmade3“substantialprogress”towardreducingGHGemissionsovertime,itwouldprovideleadagencies4withadditionalflexibility,aswellasprovidemoreincentiveforutilizingthiskindofplanningand5implementationtool.6
TheCEQAGuidelinesalreadyallowforCEQAstreamliningofimpactswhenthereareprograms,7plans,andregulationsthatsubstantiallymitigateimpactsforinfillprojects.Therefore,itwould8makesensethatasimilarapplicationshouldbeappliedforGHGReductionPlansunderCEQA9GuidelinesSection15183.5.10
Allow Partial CEQA Exemption for CAPs 11
OneofthemoreabsurdapplicationsofCEQAistorequireCEQAdocumentsonCAPs.Manyofthe12actionsincludedinCAPs,suchasenergy‐efficientretrofitsorenergyefficiencyfornew13development,areunlikelytoresultinsignificantenvironmentalimpacts.However,someofthe14actionsincludedinlocalCAPscancertainlyhaveimpactsontheenvironment,suchasutility‐scale15solarenergyfacilitiesthatmightbeproposedwithinsensitivehabitatareas.Ontheotherhand,16projectspecificimpactsfromsitingsolarorsimilarfacilitiessuchashabitatimpactswouldbe17speculativeunlessspecificlocationswereproposedinaCAPandwouldbesubjecttotheirown18CEQAreview.ThereisnoexemptionorstreamliningforCAPsunderCEQA.Theanalysiswithinthe19CEQAdocumentsassociatedwithCAPsisusuallyhighlyprogrammaticandnon‐locationspecific,20meaningthatthoseCAPelementsthatdoresultinpotentiallysignificantenvironmentalimpacts21wouldrequireaproject‐levelCEQAdocumentregardlessoftheprogrammaticlevelanalysis.Asa22result,theCEQAdocumentsforCAPsbyandlargedonotprovideusefuldisclosureorconsequential23environmentalmitigation.24
AmoreproductiveapproachwouldbetoestablishapartialCEQAexemptionfortheCAPadoption.25TheexemptionwouldlimitthescopeofCEQAcompliancetoaddressingGHGemissionsonly,and26wouldeliminatetheneedtoanalyzeotherenvironmentalimpactsattheprogrammaticlevel,while27mandatingCEQAevaluationontheproject‐levelelementsfromtheCAPthatmayhave28environmentaleffectsoftheirown.ThisapproachwouldretaintheabilityforCEQAtieringfroma29qualifiedGHGreductionplan,andwouldeliminateanimpedimenttolocalCAPdevelopment,while30stillensuringthatproject‐levelsecondaryenvironmentalimpactsarefullydisclosedandmitigated31asrequiredbyCEQA.32
The Role of General Plans in a Post‐2020 World 33
Thefollowingrecommendationsaremadeinlightofmaintainingandenhancingtheroleoflocal34generalplansinsupportingpost‐2020GHGreductionefforts.35
Improve General Plan/CAP Coordination 36
TherehasbeendebateintheplanningworldaboutwhetherornotCAPsshouldbeintegratedinto37generalplans.Thisisbestdecidedonacase‐by‐casebasisinordertorespecttheparticular38preferences,style,andlocalconsiderationsthatgointoeachgeneralplan.Giventhatjurisdictions39arelimitedinhowmanygeneralplanamendmentscanbemadeinayear,andtheamountofeffort40associatedwithsuchamendmentsandupdates,somecommunitiesseeadvantagesinhavinga41
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 55 March 2015
separateCAPprocessandCAPdocument;arguingthatitcanbemoreresponsivetofast‐changing1conditionswhilemaintainingthegeneralplanasamorebroadpolicy“charter”forthecommunity.2OthercommunitiespreferafullintegrationofthegeneralplanwiththeCAPtoensurethatGHG3reductionmeasurespermeateallnecessaryaspectsoflocalplanning.4
Thepost‐2020GHGreductionchallengeshouldnotdictatealocaljurisdiction’schoiceunlessthe5Statemandatesthatclimatechangebecomesarequiredgeneralplanelement.Suchlegislation6wouldbereflectedinfutureGeneralPlanGuidelineupdates.7
Inanycase,generalplansandCAPsmuststillbebroughtintocloserandbetteralignmentforGHG8reductionmeasuresunderthecontrolofalocaljurisdictiontobeeffective.However,themannerin9whichthatalignmentisconductedshouldbelefttolocaldiscretion,providedthatthereissufficient10rigor,support,enforcement(wherenecessary),andmonitoringtoensurethatlocalGHGinitiatives11canbeandareeffectivelyimplemented.12
Establish 20‐year Planning Horizons for General Plan CEQA Analysis to Better 13Match Regional Planning Horizons 14
Asidentifiedinthispaper,GHGreductionplansareoftenpreparedconcurrentlywithgeneralplan15updates.GHGreductionplansseektoidentifymeasuresthatwouldbeimplementedbya16jurisdictionoverinthenear‐andlong‐termtoachieveGHGreductiongoals.Therefore,aGHG17reductionplanistiedtoacleartimelinewithadefinedhorizonyear.18
Generalplanstypicallyhavelong‐termtimeframes,andmanydonotlinkgeneralplandevelopment19toanytimetableatall.Thisisbecausegeneralplansguidegrowthanddevelopmentbasedon20developmentstandardssetforthinthelanduseplan,andongoalsandpoliciesidentifiedinthe21generalplanelements.Althoughthelanduseplanguidesgrowthanddevelopmentwithina22jurisdiction,actualgrowthisbasedonmarketconditionsanddemographicchangesovertime.While23someGHGreductionplansgobeyond2020,mostGHGreductionplanspreparedsincethearrivalof24AB32weredraftedtoachievethe2020target.Asaresult,thetimelineidentifiedinaGHGreduction25planmaynothavealwaysbeenconsistentwiththegeneralplantimeline.26
Thetimehorizonforenvironmentalimpactanalysisforageneralplanisanotherimportantsticking27point,becauseunderCEQAonemustanalyzethe“wholeofanaction,”perCEQAGuidelinesSection2815378(a).Forageneralplan,thismeanstheanalysismustconsiderthereasonablyforeseeable29directandindirectphysicalchangesassociatedwiththeunderlyinglanduseplan,including30reasonablebuildoutofalltheparcelsbasedonthelandusedesignations.Manyjurisdictionsare31unlikelytobebuiltoutby2100,muchlessbytheyear2050.32
Furthermore,notallregionalgovernmentsandtransportationagencieshaveforecastedouttoyear332050.ThispresentsdifficultieswhendraftinggeneralplanCEQAanalysesandcanaddtothe34confusionover“buildout”versus“horizonyear.”Forexample,long‐rangetransportationplans,35includingtheRTPspreparedbyMPOsandcongestionmanagementplans(CMPs)preparedbylocal36congestionmanagementagencies,onlyforecastouttoa20‐yearplanninghorizon.Transportation37modelingforageneralplanusuallydependsonthecirculationnetworkandthecumulativetraffic38growthassumptionsoutsidethejurisdiction,basedontheseregionaltransportationtools.39Consequently,thehorizonyearforthetrafficanalysisinageneralplanistypicallycappedbasedon40thelatestforecastyearavailablefromtheregional/sub‐regionaltransportationagencies.Other41regionalplanningtools,suchasurbanwatermanagementplans(UWMPs),arealsoforecastedoutto42
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 56 March 2015
onlya20yearplanninghorizon,andarebecomingincreasinglymoreimportantinlightofthe1increasingdroughtconcernsthroughouttheState.2
Generalplansrelyheavilyonthesevarioustypesofregionalplanningtools,mostofwhichare3forecastedouttoa20‐yearplanninghorizon.Yet,thereisnocut‐offdateormandatethatthe4generalplanimpactanalysisberequiredtoconsidergrowthandassociatedphysicalenvironmental5impactsforonlya20‐yearplanninghorizon.Asaresult,thereisadisconnectbetweenhowwe6analyzeimpactsforCEQA,andtheregionalplanningobjectives/forecastingdataavailable.7
Tobridgethisgapinhowweplanforgrowthandhowleadagenciesmustanalyzeimpactsunder8CEQA,legislationshouldrequirethattheCEQAGuidelinesbeamendedtorecommendthatgeneral9plansanalyzeimpactsoverthesameplanninghorizonrequiredforotherregionalplanningtools,10suchaswatersupply/demand,andtransportationplanning.IftheCEQAGuidelinesspecifically11redefinedtheplanninghorizonforageneralplanasbeingona20‐yearbasis,thenitwouldlink12growthanalyzedintheEIRtoaclearandconsistentplanninghorizon.Furthermore,nothingwould13precludeajurisdictionfromextendingtheplanninghorizontoalongertimeframe.Linkingthe14analysisofthegeneralplanEIRtoaclearplanninghorizonwouldalsoprovidebenefitsforGHG15reductionplanningbyallowingthehorizonanalyzedinthegeneralplantobethesameasthe16horizonanalyzedformeasurestoachieveGHGreductiongoalsforthejurisdiction.17
The Role of Climate Action Plans in a Post‐2020 World 18
Thefollowingrecommendationsaremadeinlightofmaintainingandenhancingtheroleoflocal19CAPsinsupportingpost‐2020GHGreductionefforts.20
The Need for Legislative Action on Post‐AB 32 Targets 21
TheCaliforniaLegislatureneedstotakeactiontoadopt2030and2050GHGreductiontargetsthat22havetheforceoflawthroughouttheState.A2030targetisneededtoinformStatepolicyeffortsfor23theRPS,vehiclestandards,transportationfuelpolicy,thecap‐and‐tradeprogram,andother24regulations.Inaddition,a2030targetwouldinformthenextgenerationoflocalGHGreduction25plansandwouldsupportCEQAthresholdsandevaluation.The2030targetshouldrepresentan26ambitioustargettokeeptheStateontrackfor2050reductions,butshouldalsobeanachievable27targetbasedonavailabletechnologiesandarealisticrateofsocialandeconomicchange.A205028targetfromtheLegislatureisalsoneededtoreplacethelimitedlegalapplicabilityofthe2050target29inEOS‐03‐05.30
Asidentifiedearlierinthispaper,acriticalissuefacingplannersandCEQApractitionersisthat31therenomandatethattheState,asawhole,mustachievethelong‐termGHGreductiongoals32establishedinExecutiveOrderS‐03‐05.Asaresult,thereisnoplantoachieve80percentbelow331990levelsby2050(oraninterimgoalfor2030),andthereisnoguidanceavailableonhowlocal34jurisdictionscanaddresspost‐2020GHGreductiongoals.Yet,thereiscaselawandsubstantial35pressurefromadvocacygroupstogobeyond2020whenestablishingGHGreductionprograms.36Withoutamandateforpost‐2020reductionsforStateagencies,localjurisdictionsinCalifornia37wouldhaveaninsurmountabletaskinmeetingthecriteriaoutlinedinCEQAGuidelinesSection3815183.5.Asaresult,therewouldbelittleincentiveforpreparinglocalGHGreductionplansto39achievepost‐2020GHGreductiongoals.40
InlightoftherulingsinSierraClubv.theCityofSanDiego(2014)andClevelandv.SANDAG(2014),it41isclearthatatsomepointtheLegislaturewillneedtoconsiderinterimtargetstoalignthelong‐term42
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 57 March 2015
goalsofExecutiveOrderS‐03‐05withthestatewideplansandprogramsbeingconsidered.Atthe1timeofthiswhitepaper(March2015),therewerethreeseparateproposalsinfrontofthe2Legislaturethatwouldprovideaninterimtargetbetween2020and2050,andthatwouldensure3thatStateagenciesbegintoplanforpolicies,programs,andregulationstoachievetheinterim4target.5
SenateBill32(SB32)wasintroducedbySenatorPavleyandwouldrequirethat(1)ARB6approveaGHGemissionslimitthatisequivalentto80percentbelow1990levelsby2050,(2)7aninterimGHGreductiontargetbeachievedby2030and2040,and(3)Stateagenciesadopt8policiesthatensurelong‐termemissionsreductionsinadvanceofthecriteriafor2030,2040,9and2050.10
AssemblyBill33(AB33)wasintroducedbyAssemblyMemberQuirkandwouldrequire11thatARB—onorbeforeJanuary1,2017—submitanUpdatetotheScopingPlanthatincludes12aGHGreductiongoalfor2030,2040,and2050.ThisbillwouldrequirethatARBinclude13quantifiedstatewidegoalsandstrategiestoachievethe2030target.14
AssemblyBill21(AB21)wasintroducedbyAssemblyMemberPereaandwouldrequire15thatARB—onorbeforeJanuary1,2018—recommendtotheGovernororLegislaturea16specifictargetofstatewideemissionsreductionsfor2030.17
ARB Needs an Actual Plan for 2030 (and a Later One for 2050) 18
IftheLegislaturemovesforwardwithanyoftheseproposalsandestablishesaGHGreductiontarget19for2030,2040,and/or2050,thenARBshouldberequiredtodraftaplantoachievethenew20interim/long‐rangetarget(s),andStateagenciesshouldberequiredtoadoptprogramsand21regulationstosupportthestatewidetarget(s).Adoptionofapost‐2020targetbytheLegislature22wouldgoalongwaytowardsupportingjurisdictionsintheirGHGreductionefforts,becauselocal23actionsaloneareinsubstantialcomparedtothetop‐downreductionsthatcouldoccurifGHG24reductionmandatesareimplementedattheStatelevel.Thiswouldcreatethecontextwithinwhich25localandregionalgovernmentscouldevaluateandidentifythefair‐shareroleoflocalgovernments26tohelptheStatemeetitsoveralltargets.27
ARBshouldalsoconductever‐moredetailedscenarioanalysisforpathwaystomeettheselected28legislativetargetfor2050.Thiswillhelpthepublicanddecisionmakerstounderstandhownear‐29termpolicyandregulationtosupportthe2030targetwillrelatetothefurthereffortnecessaryto30meettheidentified2050target.31
Create 2030, 2040 and 2050 Scenarios/Calculators 32
BuildingonthegroundbreakingworkintheUKfortheir2050Calculator,theStateneedstocreatea332050CaliforniaCalculatortoinformCaliforniansastheyfacethecoming2050challenges.ARB34wouldbethelogicalauthorofthestatewidecalculator.Furthermore,acalculatorshouldbe35preparednotonlyfortheStateasawhole,butshouldbeextendedtoallowjurisdictionstoexamine36theirlocalemissionsaswelltoapplydifferentscenarios.Giventheneedforinterimtargetplanning37inthelead‐upto2050,themodelsshouldalsoincludeinterimyearsof2030,2040and2050.38
Inordertodevelopstatewideandlocal‐usecalculators,therewillbeaneedtocreatearough39consensusaboutacceptableassumptionsformodelingpopulationandeconomicgrowth,BAU40conditions,andreductionstrategyeffectiveness.41
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 58 March 2015
Ideally,suchcalculatoreffortswouldbecoupledwitheconomicandcost‐effectivenessmodeling,in1ordertobestinformthepublicanddecisionmakersastotheeconomicimplicationsofdifferent2pathwaysto2050.3
"Walking to Run" 4
Asdemonstratedthroughoutthispaper,withouteitheraStatelegislativereductiontargetanda5realisticStateplanforreducingGHGemissionbeyond2020,itwillnotbefeasibleintheforeseeable6futureforlocaljurisdictionsontheirowntoadoptenforceableGHGreductionstrategiestomeeta72050reductiontargetconsistentwithEOS‐03‐052050goals,ortoachieveprogresstowardthe82050goalforinterimyears.9
Instead,theprudentapproachisforlocalGHGreductionplanningtofocusontherealisticand10achievableGHGreductionsthatareunderthecontrolorsubstantialinfluenceoflocalgovernments11themselves.LocalGHGreductionplanningwillneedtobecomeincreasinglymoreambitiousona12phasedbasis.CAPsshouldbeupdatedandexpandedperiodicallytoreflecttheemergingState(and13possiblyfederal)frameworkfordeeperfuturereductions.14
ThetestforlocalCAPsandassociatedCEQApracticesconcerningGHGprojectanalysisshouldbe15whetherlocalactionandprojectmitigationresultsinreasonablelocalfair‐shareofGHGreductions16overtime,showingsubstantialprogresstowardthelong‐termStatereductiontargets.17
18
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 59 March 2015
VII. References 1
Bain,Robert.2011.InterviewwithLloydFullerforTrafficTechnologyInternational.Available:2http://www.robbain.com/TTI%20Interview%20Feb%202011.pdf3
CaliforniaAirPollutionControlOfficer’sAssociation(CAPCOA).2009.ModelPoliciesforGreenhouse4GasesinGeneralPlans:AResourceforLocalGovernmenttoIncorporateGeneralPlanPoliciesto5ReduceGreenhouseGasEmissions.June.Available:http://www.capcoa.org/wp‐6content/uploads/downloads/2010/05/CAPCOA‐ModelPolicies‐6‐12‐09‐915am.pdf7
CaliforniaAirResourcesBoard.2012.ARBVisionModel,Availableat:8http://www.arb.ca.gov/planning/vision/vision.htm.9
CaliforniaEnergyCommission.2014.CaliforniaEnergyAlmanac.Availableat:10http://energyalmanac.ca.gov/electricity/11
CaliforniaCouncilonScienceandTechnology(CCST).2011.California'sEnergyFuture‐TheViewto122050.CaliforniaCouncilonScienceandTechnology.Availableat:13http://ccst.us/publications/2011/2011energy.pdf.14
GreenblattJB,andLongJ.2012.California’sEnergyFuture‐PortraitsofEnergySystemsforMeeting15GreenhouseGasReductionRequirements,CaliforniaCouncilonScienceandTechnology,16September.http://ccst.us/publications/2012/2012ghg.pdf.17
GreenblattJB.2013.EstimatingPolicy‐DrivenGreenhouseGasEmissionsTrajectoriesinCalifornia:18TheCaliforniaGreenhouseGasInventorySpreadsheet(GHGIS)ModelAvailable:19http://eetd.lbl.gov/sites/all/files/lbnl‐6451e.pdf.20
GreenblattJB.2014.ModelingCaliforniapolicyimpactsongreenhousegasemissions.EnergyPolicy,21volume78mMarch2015,Pages158‐172.Abstractavailable:22http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030142151400689223
Hymel,Kent.2014.FactorsInfluencingVehicleMilesTravelledinCalifornia:Measurementand24Analysis.June24.Available:http://www.csus.edu/calst/FRFP/VMTpercent20Trends25percent20‐percent20Hymelpercent20‐percent20Finalpercent20Report.pdf26
IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC).2014.SummaryforPolicymakers.In:Climate27Change2014:MitigationofClimateChange.ContributionofWorkingGroupIIItotheFifth28AssessmentReportoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange[Edenhofer,O.,R.Pichs‐29Madruga,Y.Sokona,E.Farahani,S.Kadner,K.Seyboth,A.Adler,I.Baum,S.Brunner,P.30Eickemeier,B.Kriemann,J.Savolainen,S.Schlömer,C.vonStechow,T.ZwickelandJ.C.Minx31(eds.)].CambridgeUniversityPress,Cambridge,UnitedKingdomandNewYork,NY,USA.32Available:http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/33
IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC).2007.Gupta,S.,D.A.Tirpak,N.Burger,J.Gupta,34N.Höhne,A.I.Boncheva,G.M.Kanoan,C.Kolstad,J.A.Kruger,A.Michaelowa,S.Murase,J.35Pershing,T.Saijo,A.Sari,2007:Policies,InstrumentsandCo‐operativeArrangements.In36ClimateChange2007:Mitigation.ContributionofWorkingGroupIIItotheFourthAssessment37ReportoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange[B.Metz,O.R.Davidson,P.R.Bosch,R.38Dave,L.A.Meyer(eds)],CambridgeUniversityPress,Cambridge,UnitedKingdomandNewYork,39
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 60 March 2015
NY,USA.SeeBox13.7re:reductionsneededfordifferentclimatestabilizationtargets.Available:1http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar4/2
JacobsonDF,JacobsonDS,MirandaB,NovotnyG,PellatM,QuachP,RomanoA,StewartD,VogelL,3WangS,WangH,WillmanL,YeskooT.2014.ARoadmapforRepoweringCaliforniaforall4PurposeswithWind,Water,andSunlight.Energy73(2014)875–889.Availableat:5http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/CaliforniaWWS.pdf6
Morrison,GeoffM.,SoniaYeh,AnthonyR.Eggert,ChristopherYang,JamesH.Nelson,3Alphabetic:7JefferyB.Greenblatt,RaphaelIsaac,MarkZ.Jacobson,JosiahJohnston,DanielM.Kammen,Ana8Mileva,JackMoore,DavidRoland‐Holst,MaxWei,JohnP.Weyant,JamesH.Williams,Ray9Williams,ChristinaB.Zapata.Long‐termEnergyPlanningInCalifornia:InsightsandFuture10ModelingNeeds.UC‐DavisInstituteofTransportationStudies.ResearchReport–UCD‐ITS‐RR‐1114‐08.Available:http://www.its.ucdavis.edu/research/publications/publication‐12detail/?pub_id=221713
NelsonJH,MilevaA,JohnstonJ,KammenDM,WeiM,GreenblattJ.2014.Scenariosfordeepcarbon14emissionsreductionsfromelectricityby2050inWesternNorthAmericausingtheSWITCH15electricpowersectorplanningmodel(Vol.II,California’sCarbonChallengePhase2),”California16EnergyCommissionPIERReport.Available:http://www.energy.ca.gov/2014publications/CEC‐17500‐2014‐109/CEC‐500‐2014‐109.pdf18
NewYorkCity.2013.NewYorkCity’sPathwaystoDeepCarbonReductions.December.Available.19http://s‐media.nyc.gov/agencies/planyc2030/pdf/nyc_pathways.pdf20
OfficeofPlanningandResearch.2013.California’sClimateFuture:TheGovernor’sEnvironmental21GoalsandPolicyReport.DraftforDiscussion–September2013.Available:22http://opr.ca.gov/docs/EGPR_ReviewDraft.pdf23
Roland‐HolstD.2008.EconomicAnalysisofCaliforniaClimatePolicyInitiativesusingtheBerkeley24EnergyandResources(BEAR)Model(AppendixG‐III).25www.arb.ca.gov/cc/scopingplan/document/appendices_volume1.pdf.26
SanBernardinoAssociatedGovernments(SANBAG).2014.SanBernardinoCountyRegional27GreenhouseGasReductionPlan.PreparedbyICFInternational.AdoptedMarch2014.Available:28http://www.sanbag.ca.gov/planning2/plan_greenhouse.html29
SanDiegoCounty.2012.SanDiegoCountyClimateActionPlan.AdoptedJune2012.Available:30http://www.sandiegocounty.gov/content/dam/sdc/dplu/advance/Climate_Action_Plan.pdf31
UnionofConcernedScientists.2007.HowtoAvoidDangerousClimateChange:AtargetforU.S.32EmissionsReductions.Authors:AmyLuers,UCS;MichaelMastrandrea,StanfordUniversity;33KathrynHayhoe,TexasTechUniversity;andPeterFrumoff,UCS.September.Available:34http://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/legacy/assets/documents/global_warming/emissio35ns‐target‐report.pdf36
UnitedKingdomDepartmentofEnergyandClimateChange.2014.ReducingtheUK’sgreenhouse37gasemissionsby80percentby2050.Available:38https://www.gov.uk/government/policies/reducing‐the‐uk‐s‐greenhouse‐gas‐emissions‐by‐3980‐by‐2050.40
Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper
Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California
Page 61 March 2015
WeiM,NelsonJH,GreenblattJB,MilevaA,JohnstonJ,TingM,YangC,JonesC,McMahon,JE,Kammen1DM.2013.DeepcarbonreductionsinCaliforniarequireelectrificationandintegrationacross2economicsectors.EnvironmentalResearchLetter,8,pp.1‐10.Available:3http://iopscience.iop.org/1748‐9326/8/1/0140384
WeiM,GreenblattJB,DonovanSM,NelsonJH,MilevaA,JohnstonJ,KammenDM,“Non‐Electricity5SectorsandOverallScenariosforMeeting80percentEmissionsReductionin2050(Vol.I,6California’sCarbonChallengePhase2),”CaliforniaEnergyCommissionPIERReport,March72014.Availableat:http://eetd.lbl.gov/publications.8
WilliamsJ,DeBenedictisA,GhanadanR,MahoneA,MooreJ,MorrowW,PriceS,TornM.2012.The9TechnologyPathtoDeepGreenhouseGasEmissionsCutsby2050:ThePivotalRoleof10Electricity.Science335,pp.53‐59.Availablefreewithregistrationat:11http://www.sciencemag.org/content/335/6064/53.full12
YangC,YehS,RameaK,ZakeriniaS,McCollumDL,BunchDS,OgdenJM.2014.ModelingOptimal13TransitionPathwaystoaLowCarbonEconomyinCalifornia:CaliforniaTIMES(CA‐TIMES)14Model.InstituteofTransportationStudies,UniversityofCalifornia,Davis,ResearchReportUCD‐15ITS‐RR‐14‐04.Available:http://www.its.ucdavis.edu/wp‐16content/themes/ucdavis/pubs/download_pdf.php?id=210717