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Reference: UNESCO New Delhi office: Contract No.3240206475 Assessment Report Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve, Uttarakhand, India as a baseline for further studies related to the implementation of Global Change in Mountain Regions (GLOCHAMORE) Research Strategy K.G. Saxena, School of Environmental Sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi 110067, India. [email protected] ; [email protected] ; Phone: 9971461199 in collaboration with R.K. Maikhuri, G.B. Pant Institute of Himalayan Environment and Development, Garhwal Unit, Srinagar (Garhwal), Uttarakhand, India K.S. Rao, Department of Botany, Delhi University, Delhi Dr Sunil Nautiyal, Institute of Social and Economic Change, Bangalore 1. The current state of existing natural resources (biodiversity and water resources), land use and socio-economic conditions 1.1. Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve- a globally significant biosphere reserve On 18 th January 1988, taking a cue from UNESCO’s Man and Biosphere (MAB) programme, Nanda Devi National Park (NDNP) was given the status of Biosphere Reserve and named Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve (NDBR). This reserve was recognized as a World Heritage Site in 1992 and was included in the UNESCO’s world network of Biosphere Reserves in 2004. The reserve, located the Uttarakhand Himalaya, is spread over an area of 5860 km 2 , with two core zones, the Nanda Devi National Park (625 km 2 ) and the Valley of Flowers National Park (88 km 2 ). The buffer zone of NDBR includes 47 settlements spread over an elevation range of 2200-3400 m asl and dispersed as patches in the matrix of forests in Chamoli, Pithoragarh and Bageswar districts. From geomorphologiacal point of view, the buffer zone occupies the whole Alaknanda and Rishi Ganga catchment (a subcatchement of the Ganga river system, the key water resource of the ‘bread basket’ of south Asia, the Indo- gengetic alluvial plains) that is encircled by High Himalayan peaks including Nanda Devi, the India’s second highest peak Nanda Devi. A large area of the reserve lies above tree line and is covered with snow for more than 6 months in a year. 1.2. People Historically, local inhabitants, the Botiyas, were traders, with livestock husbandry as their subsidiary occupation. Until 1962, they would carry wheat, rice and buckwheat to Tibet and barter these products with salt and wool. People live in their high elevation settlements in summer and move down in winters to their settlements at lower elevations acquired from Garhwali communities on informal share-cropping terms that were not recognized in the formal land right system put in place by 1960. With loss customary cultivation rights in their 2

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Page 1: Assessment Report Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve ... · Reference: UNESCO New Delhi office: Contract No.3240206475 . Assessment Report . Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve, Uttarakhand, India

Reference: UNESCO New Delhi office: Contract No.3240206475

Assessment Report Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve, Uttarakhand, India

as a baseline for further studies related to the implementation of Global Change in Mountain Regions (GLOCHAMORE) Research Strategy

K.G. Saxena, School of Environmental Sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi 110067, India. [email protected]; [email protected]; Phone: 9971461199

in collaboration with R.K. Maikhuri, G.B. Pant Institute of Himalayan Environment and Development, Garhwal Unit, Srinagar (Garhwal), Uttarakhand, India K.S. Rao, Department of Botany, Delhi University, Delhi Dr Sunil Nautiyal, Institute of Social and Economic Change, Bangalore 1. The current state of existing natural resources (biodiversity and water resources), land use and socio-economic conditions 1.1. Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve- a globally significant biosphere reserve On 18th January 1988, taking a cue from UNESCO’s Man and Biosphere (MAB) programme, Nanda Devi National Park (NDNP) was given the status of Biosphere Reserve and named Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve (NDBR). This reserve was recognized as a World Heritage Site in 1992 and was included in the UNESCO’s world network of Biosphere Reserves in 2004. The reserve, located the Uttarakhand Himalaya, is spread over an area of 5860 km2, with two core zones, the Nanda Devi National Park (625 km2) and the Valley of Flowers National Park (88 km2). The buffer zone of NDBR includes 47 settlements spread over an elevation range of 2200-3400 m asl and dispersed as patches in the matrix of forests in Chamoli, Pithoragarh and Bageswar districts. From geomorphologiacal point of view, the buffer zone occupies the whole Alaknanda and Rishi Ganga catchment (a subcatchement of the Ganga river system, the key water resource of the ‘bread basket’ of south Asia, the Indo-gengetic alluvial plains) that is encircled by High Himalayan peaks including Nanda Devi, the India’s second highest peak Nanda Devi. A large area of the reserve lies above tree line and is covered with snow for more than 6 months in a year. 1.2. People Historically, local inhabitants, the Botiyas, were traders, with livestock husbandry as their subsidiary occupation. Until 1962, they would carry wheat, rice and buckwheat to Tibet and barter these products with salt and wool. People live in their high elevation settlements in summer and move down in winters to their settlements at lower elevations acquired from Garhwali communities on informal share-cropping terms that were not recognized in the formal land right system put in place by 1960. With loss customary cultivation rights in their

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winter settlements coupled with loss of income from trade due largely to socio-political factors and from wild biological resources around their summer dwellings due to legal protection of these resources, local people seem to have intensified agricultural land use in an attempt to compensate for the losses. Woolen handlooms and traditional beverage production units are the traditional cottage industries. Marketing (barter system) within village operates on a very small scale but is a crucial determinant of resource flows. With increasing influence of monetary concerns, acreage of cash crops has increased. Livestock (particularly goat/sheep), raw medicinal and aromatic plant products (both collected from wild and cultivated), woolen handloom products and traditional beverages are the major export items and salt, sugar, oils and consumer products the major import items. 1.2.1. Land and livestock holdings Sheep, goats, cows, bullocks, horses and mules are the livestock reared by most of the households. Horses and mules were kept for transport of goods, goats for meat, sheep for wool and cows/ bullocks/yaks/yak-cow crossbreeds for draught power, manure and milk.. Sheep population declined drastically and yak husbandry altogether abandoned after a large traditional pasture area was included in the National Park/core zone in 1970s. Wool is exported and processed wool yarn required for traditional handlooms is imported. The land holding and livestock holdings in high altitude-buffer zone villages were recorded as 1.1 ha/family and 4.5 cattle units/family compared to 0.60 ha/family and 4.5 cattle units/family in low elevation-outside buffer zone villages (Table 1,2). Table 1: General profile of low altitude villages

Total agricultural area (ha)

Village Average livestock holding/ family

Rainfed Irrigated

Average land

holding/ family (ha)

Langasu 4.2 17.28 6.36 0.52

Bansoli 5.1 0.9 29.55 0.5 Chamali 4.7 1.76 21.86 0.71 Bedanu 4.8 10.05 46.48 0.8 Utron 4 1.82 38.2 0.72 Jilasu 4.6 4.05 15.54 0.34

Total/average 4.6 35.86 157.99 0.60

Table 2: Land and livestock holding sizes in selected high altitude-buffer zone villages of NDBR

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Village Average livestock

holding/family

Total Agricultural

area (Ha)

Average land holding/family

(ha)

Tolma 5.7 46.18 1.77 Bhallagaon 5.3 31.23 0.78

Suki 5.8 41.2 0.98 Phagti 6.1 42.78 1.52 Lata 4.4 51.23 0.68 Long 6.2 16.31 0.85 Total/average 5.58 39.15 1.10

1.2.2. Population growth during 1981 – 2001 period High and low elevation zones differed more in terms of the rate of increase in number of households and migration of families than total population growth during 1981-2001 period. Population in low elevation zone increased by 22% compared to 18% in high elevation zone. Outmigration occurred at higher rates in high elevation-buffer zone villages compared to low elevation-outside reserve villages. Immigrant Nepalese people settled only in low elevation-outside reserve villages. Table 3. Changes in population of selected villages in buffer zone of NDBR (these villages are at higher elevations) during 1981-2001 period

Total no. of households

Total population Name of the villages

1981 2001 Rate of change

(%)

1981 2001 Rate of change

Total No. of

families out

migrated

Total no. of

families new

Settled

Tolma 23 36 57 91 145 59 2 0 Bhallagaon 29 39 34 137 205 50 4 0

Suki 28 37 32 129 163 26 -- 0 Phagti 17 27 59 65 94 45 3 0 Lata 72 75 4 325 342 5 5 0 Long 19 20 5 85 67 -21 -- 0 Total 188 234 24 832 1016 22 14 0

Table 4. Changes in population of selected villages in the vicinity of NDBR (these villages are at lower elevations) during 1981-2001 period Name of the villages

Total no. of households

Total population Total no. of

families

Total no. of

families

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1981 2001 Rate of change

(%)

1981 2001 Rate of change

(%)

out migrated

new Settled

Utroan 81 140 73 264 530 101 17 21 Langasu

70 71 1 281 336 20 19 1

Bansoli 36 31 -14 158 120 -24 29 -- Chamali 33 49 48 138 188 36 11 -- Baidanu 87 108 24 392 385 -2 22 -- Jilasu 62 56 -10 286 235 -18 40 -- Total 369 455 23 1519 1794 18 138 21

1.2.3. Income The two elevation zones differed more in terms of relative dependence on different sources of income rather than total average income. Only high elevation villages derived direct economic benefits from the forests. Income from agriculture and tertiary sector were substantially higher but that from livestock lower in lower elevation zone outside the reserve compared to high elevation villages in the reserve. Table 5. Annual income (Rs/family/yr: US $1 = Rs 40) in high altitude-buffer zone villages and low altitude-outside reserve villages Source of income High elevation Low elevation Agriculture + horticulture 4260 + 190 7900 + 360 Animal husbandry + bee keeping 2150 + 150 580 + 45 Forest products and MAPs 1978 + 90 Nil Cottage industries based on raw material from forests

892 + 60 Nil

Service/daily wages/business 1820 + 85 4860 + 260 Total (Rs.) 11100 13340 1.3. Climate The climatic year is distinguished by three seasons – summer (April- June), rainy season (June-September), and winter (October-March). Average annual rainfall is 930 mm, with 48% of it occurring in two months (July-August). The maximum temperature ranges from 11 to 24°C and the minimum from 3 to 7 °C.Broadly two climatic zones could be distinguished: (i) Lower montane zone: elevation range of 1800-2400 m asl, average annual temperature of 10-140 C and precipitation more in the form of showers than snowfall and (ii) Upper montane zone: elevation range of 2400-3000m asl, average annual temperature of 4.5-100, precipitation more in terms of snowfall than showers (Gaur, 1999). 1.4. Biodiversity and global environmental services The reserve is covered under the Himalayan biogeographic province 2A of India (Rodgers and Pawar, 1988). The reserve is home to about (i) 600 vascular plant species, including several rare, endangered and threatened taxa (e.g. Dactylorhiza hataziera, Aconitum heterophyllum, Swertia chirayata , Taxus baccata), (ii) 18 mammals including including 7 endangered species (viz., snow leopard (Panthera uncia), Black bear (Celenarctos thibentamus), Brown deer (Urcus arctos), Musk deer(Moschus chrysogaster), Bharal (Pseudois nayaur), Himalayan Tahr (Hemetragus jemlahicus) and Serow (Capricornis sumatraensis) and several bird species including 8 endangered species viz. Monal pleasant (Lophophorus impeganus), Himalayan snow cock (Tetraogallus himalayansis), Kokla

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pheasant (Purasic macrolopha), Western tragopan (Tragopan melanocephalus), Golden eagle (Aquila mipalansis), Black eagle (Letinaetus malayensis), Bearded vulture (Gypatus barbatus) (Mohan, 1993). The reserve covers a large number of glaciers feeding the river Ganga system, the major source of water to one of the most thickly populated and productive regions of the south Asia and is the birth place of the famous Chipko (hugging the tree) movement (Rao et al., 2000). Forest types are differentiated in terms of relative dominance of Pinus wallichiana, Quercus spp., Cedrus deodara, mixed conifer, Betula spp. and Abies sps and Cupressus torulosa. 1.5. Land use land cover and landscape management dynamics 1.5.1. Land use-land cover Forests, alpine grasslands, wastelands and permanent snow/glacier covered 10%, 3%, 6%, and 81%, respectively, area of the core zone and 27%, 5%, 7% and 61%, respectively, of the buffer zone (Sahai and Kimothi, 1996). Farming and settlement area is negligible (<1%). There has been virtually no change in land use – land cover type since 1960s. 1.5.1. Natural resource/land use management: the traditional system Crop husbandry-animal husbandry-wild biodiversity-rural economy are closely integrated subsystems, with a variety of socio-cultural-institutional mechanisms favoring a balance in utilisation and regeneration of natural resources, equity and social integrity in highly isolated and inaccessible settlements (Maikhuri et al., 2001; Nautiyal et al., 2001, 2002; Misra et al., 2008). Each village had its own notional territories of forests and alpine meadows and resource uses within these ‘common lands’ were decided by consensus. Timber on a commercial scale was never extracted because people viewed benefits from non-timber forest products more crucial for livelihoods than short term economic gains from timber trade. There were no restrictions on collection of wild edibles, dead wood and leaf litter (a constituent of farm yard manure) partly because these resources were abundant. Lopping, grazing and collection of NTFPs were ‘group’ activities over time slots fixed by the village councils so as to reduce the risks of vested-interest driven over-exploitation by individuals. Social sanction of income from handicrafts made from forest products, wild medicinal plants and herding only to small-holders/land-less people and restrictions on hiring labor for agricultural or forestry from outside the village fostered equity and natural resource uses within carrying capacity. Natural resource rich villages (by virtue of comparative ecological advantages) allowed resource poor villages to use their resources more for social integrity than for economic gains. As an illustration, alpine villages rich in pastoral resources allowed grazing of livestock from outside the region under the supervison of local nomads without charging any tax possibly for three reasons: (i) nomads used the area not grazed by local livestock and hence did not offer any threat to local livelihood, (ii) grazing by livestock from outside in the outskirts of host villages reduced the probability of livestock depredation in the host villages and (iii) the nomads bartered essential commodities, not available locally, with local products. 1.5.2. Natural resource/land use management: the changes in traditional system Land/resource ownership

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Conventional conservation-development approaches have often assumed the traditional system to be ecologically as well as economically unsound. The colonial government took over a large chunk of village common lands notifiying them as ‘forest and waste land’ in the later half of nineteenth century. As at present, government forest land is stratified into: (a) national parks where all consumptive forest resource uses are prohibited, (b) reserve and protected forests under the control of Government Forest Department where local communities enjoy the concession of utilizing non-timber forest products limited to their subsistence needs while government agencies can utilize both timber and NTFPs to meet the national economic/industrial raw material (c) community forests that are managed by Village Forest Council (locally called Van Panchyat), with a provison of sharing of income earned from any commercial extractions with the government. There were two important generic implications of these changes imposed through law: reduction in area freely accessible to local people and emergence of a perception among local people that policy promoted conservation or national economic development from a resource base they had conserved. Grazing The villages whose alpine pastures happended to be outside the core zone of the reserve are allowing livestock of the villages whose pasture lands were included in the core zone to graze in their territories but on payment of Rs 20/horse or cattle and Rs 4/sheep or goat. Such linkages between resource rich and resource poor villages were not guided by any monetary consideration earlier in the traditional system. Indeed, termination/reduction of grazing is likely to enhance biodiversity and ecosystem services if the grazing pressure was intense. If local people are convinced about long term benefits from abandonment of grazing, they, by themselves, are likely to reduce their dependence on livestock. Systematic participatory experiments are needed to identify the strengths and weaknesses of traditional resource systems. Medicinal plants Traditionally only nomadic herders collected wild medicinal plant products while herding animals in remote pastures. This resource was used for local health care as well as for income but on a small scale. During 1980s, government agencies granted collection permits to individuals as a means of generating revenue. Seeing the contractors adopting unsustainable resource utilization regimes driven by their profit maximization motive, local people agitated and forced the government to abandon the permit system. Over the last couple of decades, people have started cultivating many medicinal species that they were collecting from the wild, a change rooted in indigenous innovations and not in climate/environmental change (Kandari et al., 2007). Wood/timber Timber extraction on a commercial scale came for the first time in existence in 1970s when Government sanctioned fellings as a means of earning revenue. Foreseeing the adverse impacts of commercial fellings in terms of likely scarcity of non-timber forest products required for sustaining crop and animal husbandry, reducing risks of hydrological imbalances and associated damage to their life and production systems, local people forced government to withdraw fellings. This agitation (the Chipko movement, i.e., ‘hugging the tree movement) originating from Reni and Lata villages was such an eye-opener for the policy makers that the government banned felling of green trees in all hilly regions in the country. Removal of dead/diseased trees started in 1960s and is continued. As a result of effective protection of forests achieved through both formal and informal institutions, the forests in the reserve have huge carbon stocks in biomass as well as soil organic carbon (Maikhuri et al., 2000).

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Rural development as a component of protected area management In the traditional system, protection of forests from exploitation by outsiders or the insiders was a social responsibility. Policy interventions tried to achieve forest protection by enforcement rather than a social responsibility. Protection accounts for a significant government expenditure but is not liked by people as they do not derive any direct benefit from it. Afforestation, mechanical soil conservation measures and supply of solar power devices, wool, improved bee-hives and spinning devices on subsidized price to selected households, have been included in the biosphere reserve management plan to secure people’s confidence in protected area network. Yet, local people largely perceive the benefits far less than the losses due to enforcements. This perception seem to stem from marginalization of development options preferred by local people. People’s preferences should be set aside and/moderated only when they do not fall in line with the goal of conservation. A concern for adaptation and mitigation of global environmental changes like climate change or global warming has so far been neither an explicit concern in biosphere reserve management plans, People-wildlife conflicts The policy of treating any killing of wildlife as a legal offence is often disliked by local people as it treats killing for game or poaching for income at par with rare killings of animals threatening life and property of local people. There has been an increase in frequency of livestock killings by wildlife in the recent past. However, the available information/data is too limited to resolve if this increase is because of increase in livestock population or increase in predator population or decrease in wild herbivore population. Again no one has so far speculated or conjectured about increase in livestock depredation frequency as a result of climate change. Protected area management does have a provison of cash compensation for livestock killed by wildlife, but funds available are too low to compensate the losses and procedure too complex to be understood clearly by the community. Enhancement of traditional practices to protect livestock from wildlife depredation is likely to be a more effective way of resolving wildlife-people conflicts than providing cash compensation in developing countries. 1.6. Agriculture-natural ecosystems-livelihood linkages Rainfed agriculture on outward sloping or bench terraces is the predominant form of agricultural land use. Only 8 % of total cultivated land in the reserve is irrigated (village Malari). At lower elevations two crops, one during rainy/summer season and other during the winter season, can be harvested in a year but tradition is to fallow a field during one winter season over a two year period (i.e., three crops harvested over a period of two years). In higher elevation villages, only one crop is harvested from a field in year (Nautiyal et al. 2003). The farmers traditionally grew 10 – 12 staple food crops together in a year, a food system locally known as ‘Barahnaja (meaning growing at least 12 staple foood crops in a year)’. Medicinal plants viz. Arnebia benthamii, Sellinum wallichianum, Angelica glauca, Pleurospermum anglecoides, Berginia ciliata, Allium strachei and Allium humile are also cultivated but on a very small scale in higher elevations. A variety of horticultural (apple, apricot and walnut) and agro forestry trees are maintained while a huge variety of vegetables are grown in kitchen gardens (Nautiyal et al., 2003). Chemical fertilizer is applied only by some farmers, that too only to potato crop, at high altitudes. Farmyard manure (FYM) is prepared by the women folk and input rates vary depending on land/livestock holdings and availability of forest leaf litter (FYM is a mixture of forest leaf litter constituting the bedding material and livestock excreta). Quality of FYM

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depends species composition of forests accessible to people. FYM having oak leaves is considered to be of better quality compared to that containing pine leaves. In high altitude villages, people prefer most the leaves of Juglans, Raga, Pangar and Kanchula and of Oak, Lyonia, Burans and Litsea at lower elevations. Despite small holdings, crop diversity is quite high, more so in rainfed agroecosystems. High crop diversity is achieved through crop rotation in space and time and through mixed crop systems. High levels of crop yields (e.g., 14 t of potato per ha) and food sufficiency in many villages testify the potential of indigenous organic farming system. Most crops are represented by multiple farmer selected cultivars. Perilla frutescence is a crop which, because of its stringent order, is believed to repel some wild mammal pests. Mustard is also believed to repel wild animals but not as effectively as P. frutescence. Direct benefits are the major descriptors of farm trees in indigenous knowledge, though tree species differ in terms of their suitability as perching sites for birds and monkeys, litter quality and nutrient cycling and shading of crops. Contributions of trees in soil conservation and suppression of pests are neither perceived by farmers nor are substantiated from scientific studies. Maintenance of multipurpose trees in farm land is often a response to compensate for NTFPs scarcity in timber species dominated forests around settlements (Nautiyal et al., 1998). Pests figure as the last concern of traditional farmers, risks arising from the poor land/soil quality being the most important concern followed by those associated with human labour input (Table 6). Monkeys, porcupine and wild boar among large mammals, partridge among birds, white grubs and stem borer of amaranth among insects draw a high level of farmers’ concern (Table 7). In high altitude regions where crop diversity and management practices have not changed much with time, large scale damage to amaranths caused by insects (e.g., Hymenia recurvalis) is a recent pheonomena. Farmers attribute this to global warming. Application of immature manure is considered to promote all insect pests, diseases and weeds. Farmers have a perception that seeds from healthy plants, sun-drying and smoking reduce the possibility of crop infection. Table 6. Concern of risks related to loss of crop yields due to pests and other factors as reported by farmers. Values of % responses for a given degree of risk (n = 70; Rao et al., unpublished). Risks due to Magnitude of concern High Low Land and soil quality 100 0 Availability of labour at proper time 35 65 Availability of seeds of desired quality 85 15 Availability of manure of better quality in sufficient amount

90 10

Climatic uncertainty 100 0 Insects and diseases 80 20 Weeds 10 90 Wild large mammals and birds 60 40

Table 7. Local concerns for different pests and indigenous responses to reduce damage. Kind of pest Degree of Responses to reduce damage

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concern Monkeys for all crops, specially winter crops(upto 2000 m), bear in higher altitudes (2000-2400 m), and porcupine and wild boar (damage more due to trampling) all crops and all altitudes

Very high Physical impediments to the pest, keeping watchman and dogs, lighting fire and putting effigies to repel pests

Birds for legumes (early stages of legume growth – they eat cotyledons) at lower elevation and temperate fruits at higher elevations

Very high Keeping watchman to repel pests by making loud voices/sounds, and putting effigies to repel pests

White grubs for all summer crops at lower altitudes

Very high Proper composting of manure

Stem borer in amaranth at higher altitude

Very high Crop diversification

Fungal disease in potato at lower elevations and irrigated conditions

Very high Crop diversification, removal and burning of infested plants

Caterpillar infestation in legumes at the flowering and fruiting stage at lower elevations

Very high Crop diversification

Post harvest fungal and insect damaging pulses except Glycine max, a crop which not at all damaged

Very high Frequent sun-drying and smoking

Insect attack (stem borer and leaf folder) in rice in irrigated agriculture

Very high Crop diversification

Smut of cereals Very high Crop diversification

Fungal disease in potato at lower elevations in rainfed conditions

Moderate Crop diversification, removal and burning of infested plants

Ants at the time of sowing in rainfed agriculture

Moderate None

Other fungal and bacterial diseases Negligible None Weeds in summer cereals and millets Very high Manual intensive weeding Weeds in legume crops Negligible Manual casual weeding

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Farmers understanding about increase in wild boar (Sus scrofa), bear (Selenarctos thibetanus), musk deer (Moschus chrusogaster), porcupine (Hystrix indica), monkey (Presbytes entellus) and partridge (Alectoris chukor) following conservation policies and programmes has inculcated an expectation of cash compensation for crop damage by wildlife, which could be as high as 50% of total economic yield. Unfortunately, while policy provides for some compensation for depredation of livestock and human life but not of crops, a point of people-conservation conflict (Rao et al., 2002). Though there is no perceptible change in cropping intensity and area under agriculture, crop diversity and husbandry practices have dramatically changed. Cultivation of Echinochloa frumentacea, Glycine max, Setaria italica, Panicum miliaceum and Pennisetum typhoides at lower altitudes and Hordeum vulgare, Hordeum himalayense and Pisum arvense at higher altitudes have been replaced by cash crops Solanum tuberosum (potato) and Phaseolus spp to a significant extent (Table 8). Expansion of potato whose by-products do not have any fodder value, imply lesser production of fodder from private farms and thereby more use pressure on forests. Further, soil erosion from potato fields could be 6-8 times higher than that from traditional staple food crops despite of 2-4 times higher manure input in the former as compared to the latter. Larger quantities of manure input implies more removal of litter from forests and hence risks of deterioration in forest ecosystem services. A change such as cultivation of medicinal plants (which used to be harvested from the wild and many of which are recognised as rare and endangered species), an indigenous knowledge based response, falls in line with the goal of conservation. Scientific interventions towards improvement in traditional organic manure preparation and application and, soil-crop management practices could partly overcome the environmentally unsound practices (Sen et al., 1997; Maikhuri et al., 2000; Semwal et al., 2004). Table 8 . Area (% of total cropped area) and 95 period and monetary value of yield (mean ± SE) of different crops in villages near and away from the core zone of the Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve, India. Values for any variable with different superscript letters are significantly different (P<0.05) within rows.

Crops Lower altitude region High altitude region % of total cropped

area (%)

Monetary Value(US$/ha)

% of total cropped area (%)

Monetary value (US$/ha)

Food crops Monocropping Amaranthus paniculatus 4.4 289±31 - - Brassica campestris 0.6a 519±37a 3.1b 494±34a Echinochloa frumentocea 0 - 0 - Eleusine coracana 0.6 311±28 - - Fagopyrum esculentum 7.7a 337±21a 16.3b 503±27b Fagopyrum tataricum 8.2a 343±30a 2.3b 474±28b Glycine max 0 - 0 - Hordeum himalayens 5.6a 235±s27a 8.1a 239±15a Hordeum vulgare 4.0 247±24 0 - Pennisetum typhoides 0 - 0 - Panicum miliaceum 0.6a 268±27a 2.5b 310±27a Phaseolus lunetus 14.6a 549±62a 8.6b 626±63a Phaseolus vulgaris 6.0a 906±27a 8.9a 969±82a Pisum sativum (Var.1) 0.3 485±49 0 - Pisum sativum (Var.2) 0.3a 547±55a 2.3b 647±44a Solanum tuberosum 6.6a 805±81a 31.3b 1048±28b

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Crops Lower altitude region High altitude region % of total cropped

area (%)

Monetary Value(US$/ha)

% of total cropped area (%)

Monetary value (US$/ha)

Setaria italica 0 - 0 - Triticum aestivum 21.3 265±29 0 - Mixed cropping A.paniculatius +P.vulgaris 3.4 842±92 - - H.himalayens+Pisum sativum(var.-2)

- - 4.8 511±27

S.tuberosum + P.vulgaris 10.1a 1133±115a 7.1b 1505±68b S.tuberasum + P.vulgaris+ A.paniculatus

4.0 1151±75 - -

Medicinal plants Allium humile 0.9a 846±79a 2.3b 945±87a Allium stracheyi 0.9a 502±48a 1.2a 560±87a Angelica glavacai - - 0.3 544±57 Carum carvi - - 0.3 971±85 Dactylorhiza hatagirea - - 0.2 786±80 Megacarpaea polyandra - - 0.2 272±19 Pleurosperum angelicoides

- - 0.2 627±60

Saussurea costus - - 0.3 690±68 *Var.1 and Var.2 are the two local varieties of Pisum sativum, locally called Mitha Matar and Kong Matar, respectively (partly based on Maikhuri et al. 2000). Major crop systems (foodgrains and potato) are the most intensive system, with total energy inputs being 1.5- and 6.7-times higher compared to minor land uses viz., kitchen garden and medicinal plant systems, respectively. Energy outputs from major food crop system were 2-9-times higher compared to minor land uses. Monetary efficiency in terms of output/input ratio, however, was higher in medicinal plant cultivation system and kichen garden compared to major food crop system (Table 9). Table 9. Comparative energy and monetary budgeting (MJ/ha/yr) of main land use, kitchen garden and medicinal and aromatic plants cultivation. Values with in parentheses are monetary equivalent (Rs) and all values represent mean of the two study villages.

Major crop systems Minor crop

system-kitchen garden

Minor crop system-medicinal plant

cultivation Input Seed 2506 (1145) 46.8 (180.0) 115 (387) Human labour 696 (1977) 208 (623) 592 (1915) Animal labour 1712 (295) - - Farmyard manure 21789 (3026) 17995 (2499) 3265(550) Total input 26653 (6443) 18249 (3302) 3972 (2852) Output A. Agronomic yield 44975 (19562) 40658 (18492) 8536 (28805) B. Crop by product 34846 (3733) - - C. Green grasses 1013 (388) - Total output 80834 (23683) 40658 (18492) 8536 (28805) Output/input ratio A 1.68 (3.0) 2.2 (5.6) 2.1 (10.0) A+B+C 3.0 (3.6)

Crop by-products and fodder from natural forests/meadows are the inexpensive inputs into the animal husbandry subsystem, except for horses/mules that are fed with food grains

12

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alongwith crop residues during stall feeding. Sheep and goat exhibited relatively higher monetary efficiency ratio than other animals (Figure 3, Table 4). Table 10. Energy (MJ) and monetary (Rs) inputs, outputs and output/input ratio for rearing of each unit of livestock in study villages the buffer zone of NDBR. Values within parentheses are monetary equivalents (Rs). ___________________________________________________________________ Category of livestock Energy input Energy output Output/input ratio ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cow 13154 (1530) 1913 (6672) 0.14 (4.3) Bullock 11120 (1290) 7244 (1200) 0.55 (0.93) Horse and mule 30339 (5053) 13538 (25550) 0.60 (5.03) Sheep 9906 (54.25) 422 (507.25) 0.042 (9.3) Goat 9906 (56.25) 504 (528.75) 0.050 (9.4) ____________________________________________________________________ 1.7. Traditional water management and changes therein Traditionally, local people depended on sub-surface water and small rainfed rivulets and this dependency necessitated forest conservation in the catchments of these sources. People rarely used water from main snowfed rivers for two reasons: (a) water flow rate is too fast to be managed by indigenous technology and (b) low temperature and high concentration of suspended load in snowfed river water are not appropriate for potable or irrigation purposes. The traditional water management was centered around minimum energy or material inputs for purification, storage and canalization together with minimal interference with natural hydrological processes so as to minimize the risks to human life/property from peak flows/flash floods. The traditional systems weakened, and disappeared in many cases, when government treated supply of irrigation/drinking water as one of its services to people. However, government supply of water as a price-less resource to people could not last long because technologies and institutional arrangements introduced were not compatible with the environmental and socio-economic conditions in mountains. While changes in land use-land cover, specifically deforestation and conversion of oak forests to pine forests have been put forth as the cause a trend of drying up of springs since last few decades, direct evidence in support of this conclusion is lacking.

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2. Characterization of stress due to global (including climate) change 2.1. Climate change trends: Scientific vis-a-vis people’s perceptions: Huge variation in scientific predictions about global warming rates [1.0 to 5.8 0C on a global scale (IPCC, 2001) and 0.4 to 2.0 0C in India (Hingane et al., 1985; Parish and Funnell, 1999; Rupa Kumar et al., 1994)] points to limitiations of available scientific tools used for predictions of future climate and its impacts. Kavi Kumar and Parikh (2001) considered likely warming by 2 0C in temperature together with a 7% increase in precipitation as the ‘best guess’. A trend of warming in the 20th century in Himalaya unraveled by mathematical modeling and trend analysis of long-term climate data is not supported by the tree ring width data (Yadav et al., 1997). Future climate scenarios in higher Himalayas constructed by the Oregon State University model radically differ from those by Goddard Institute Space Studies model (Brazel and Marcus, 1991). While many workers have described monsoon rainfall as ‘trendless’ over a long period of time, Rupa Kumar et al. (1992) concluded a decline in rainfall by 6-8% per hundred years over the north-eastern but an increase by 10-12% per 100 years over the western part of the country. Prediction of sporadic extreme climate events is much more difficult compared to changes in climate on annual or seasonal scale. Reconstruction of the past by farmers will always be limited to variables which are traditionally quantified, and to a time scale within the range of human memory (Showers, 1996). As farmers do hide or provide inaccurate information (Omiti et al., 1999), a cross-checking of farmers’ responses is required. Two divergent approaches could be adopted to discern farmers’ perceptions: (i) one can ask farmer to identify global (including climate) changes or (ii) one can ask farmers to list changes and their causal factors as perceived by them. The responses obtained from one approach could be used as a cross-check to the responses received in the second approach. By ‘good climate year’ farmers mean sporadic low rainfall events during March-May, peak monsoon rainfall during July-August, moderate rainfall/heavy snowfall during December-January and absence of cloud burst events, with highest degree of uncertainty attached to the timings of onset of monsoon and high rainfall events. Thus, farmers view precipitation more critical in determining their livelihoods than temperature. Farmers reported a trend of decrease in frequency of good climate years, with increasing frequency of catastrophically high precipitation events at elevations > 1500 m, low precipitation/drought events in 500-1500 m zone and both kinds of abnormalities in the foot hill zone. People believe drought, excessive rainfall/flood, hail storm and cloud burst events as unpredictable and unavoidable events in the hands of supernatural powers. Prayers/rituals for having favorable climates, though are superstitious, seem favoured evolution of ecosystem management and institutions enabling minimal damage due to and fast recovery following catastrophic events. Farmers consider climate change a factor not as crucial as other factors in determining spatio-temporal dynamics of ecosystems and livelihoods, suggesting a need of integration climate change trends with livelihood issues (Table 11, 12). 2.2. Climate variability and change: famers’ ways of managing risks and uncertainty Cropping patterns around Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve are built around two seasons: the monsoon/rainy season and the winter season. With a belief of a negligible probability of absolute failure of both crops in a year and of absolutely bad climate in two successive years, farmers tend to keep a stock of food meeting their requirements for 6 months. Over the last 50 years, farmers could recall complete failure of both crops only in 1966-67 in a few high elevation villages when they had to consume wild staple food (fruits of Pyrus pashia and Aesculus indica) and earn income by selling non-timber forest products and working in far

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off places to meet their basic food needs. A traditional crop like Panicum miliaceum that matures over a short period of two months but is not a delicious a staple food used to be grown over large areas following bad climate seasons for achieving food sufficiency. With availability of staple food at subsidized price from government run public distribution system since 1970, farmers now pay little attention to the traitional local production based food security system (Semwal et al., 2004; Singh et al., 2008). A delay in sowing of winter crops by about a month (due to late winter precipitation in recent years) with no change in harvesting time could be viewed as an indicator of global warming. Farmers view two major risks to crops: the risks arising from (a) uncertainty of monsoon rainfall and (b) cultivating distant fields that demand huge labor and time spent in travel/transport. Maintenance of huge biodiversity in terms of both agroecosystem type diversity and crop/cultivar diversity within each agroecosystem type in all villages is a reflection of indigenous ways of risk management (Singh et al., 2008). Farmers classify crops in three groups: (a) economically more-valuable crops with poor performance under extreme rainfall regimes, low soil fertility levels and weed abundance including maize, soybean, paddy, wheat, lentil, potato, buckwheat, amaranths and green vegetable, (b) economically less-valuable crops with ability to perform under unfavorable climatic conditions, low soil fertility levels and weed abundance including fingermillet, barnyard millet and barley, and (c) economically more-valuable crops with ability to perform under unfavorable climatic conditions, soil stresses and weed abundance including sesame, cowpea, black pea (Pisum arvense), horsegram and pigeon pea. Farmers apply higher levels of inputs available in limited quantities to the perceived low risk agroecosystems as compared to the more risky ones (Carter and Murwira, 1995). Though some farmers’ perceptions about crop-environment relations are substantiated by scientific evidences (Maikhuri et al., 1996; Singh et al., 1997; Sherchan et al., 1999; Pilbeam et al., 2000; Singh et al., 2008), there is a need of validation and enhancement of local knowledge system. Conversion of rainfed to irrigated farming reduces the risks of climatic uncertainty and improves productivity (Bhatnagar et al., 1996; Maikhuri et al., 1997) but has not progressed much for two reasons. First, farmers face a shortage of manure (due to scarcity of forest resources) required huge quantities for performance of irrigated crops and are unable to afford chemical fertilizers. Second, labor productivity from the irrigated crop system is lower than other traditional land uses like homegardens. Highly productive indigenous irrigated farming systems do exist in situations where rainfed crops fail to survive (e.g., cold desert Malari village) or when population pressure exceeds the carrying capacity of rainfed agriculture or when farmers do not have any source of income other than irrigated crops (Rao and Saxena, 1994; Chandrasekhar et al., 2007). An increasing tendency of maximisation of income and introduction of policies/programmes providing credits at marginal interests and grants to cope natural catastrophes has been marginalizing the traditional values attached to crop-environment compatibility and social integrity achieved through exchange of complementary crop products. Over time, many local communities have gained some understanding about the risks and uncertainties related to market and policies and have been found to grow cash crops to an extent that their traditional food security system is least disturbed (Maikhuri et al., 2000; Semwal et al., 2004). Pests and diseases are common in warm-cold regions but not in extreme cold arid region, indicating a possibility of higher risks of damaging agents in warmer climate. Farmer selected cultivars/crops may reduce such future risks As the current phase of climate change has been progressing parallely with a whole range of ecological-socio-economic-cultural-technological

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changes, with significant interactions between them, it is difficult to precisely segregate the exclusively climate change driven outcomes. 2.3. Forest biodiversity-agrobiodiversity-climate change linkages Forests and alpine meadows provide fodder and manure, protect crops from wildlife and catastrophic surface water flows and recharge springs (the source of drinking water) to local people, apart from their global environmental services, such as regional hydrological balance, soil and biodiversity conservation and carbon sequestration. Climate change raises a question about sustainability of these services in future. Forest resource use regimes, which do not pose any threat to both global and local benefits, have neither been worked out in scientific terms nor in the indigenous knowledge system. A religious belief that natural hazards/catastrophic events follow if timber trade is adopted as a means of livelihood and agricultural land use is expanded for economic prosperity together with social sanction for earning income from sale of non-timber forest products only to economically weaker families are the key elements of social capital favoring conservation and sustainable use of natural resources. People value forests most for availability of inputs required for sustaining agricultural production, health and the insurance it provides from the uncertainties of environmental extremes (Saxena et al., 2003; Singh et al., 2008).

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Table 11. Climate change attributes drawn from analysis of people’s perceptions in and around Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve

Kind of climate change

Evidence Response Changes interacting with climate

change

Decline in snowfall/rainfall

• Decline in snow-covered area around clearly visible peaks from long distances and recession of Satopanth and Dunagiri glaciers close to alpine pastures • Decrease in depth and persistence of snow around high altitude settlements ( Malari, Gamsali, Niti, and Dunagiri: 3,000-3,600 masl) • Decline in water resources used by livestock, particularly in several alpine pastures, • Increase in frequency and intensity of damage to shoots of Betula utilis (growing in association with Abies pindrow), Rhododendron campanulatum, and Taxus baccata in 3,300 to 3,600 masl elevation zone by insects • Decline in apple yield as it needs proper chilling during winters for proper fruit yield

• Decline in transhumant population as poor winter precipitation reduces fodder productivity as well as quality (This response could also be driven by policies discouraging transhumance/nomadism and indigenous socio-cultural forces driving people to adopt settled life) • Replacement of apple by annual cash crops like pea, tomato, cauliflower, chilly and cabbage under rainfed conditions in higher altitudes and irrigated conditions in lower altitudes

• Adoption of policies discouraging transhumance/nomadism • Cultural detachment from transhumance/nomadism among traditional people • Increase in demand of cash crops with comparative advantages in the hills within the region as result increase in tourist influx as well as in adjoining plains as a result of decline in agricultural land use in the plains • Supply of staple food on subsidized price by the government • Emergence of new livelihood opportunities arising from globalization,

Decline in rainfall during March-May

• Decline in yield of Kharif crops due to large scale mortality and/or poor growth in the initial stage of crop growth

• Abandonment of crops e.g., Panicum miliaceum, a crop that matures over a 3-month period (March-May) but poorly performs if onset of monsoon is delayed. • Casual management of traditional staple food crops grown during rainy season • Replacement of Amaranthus paniculatus by cauliflower, cabbage and potato • Indigenous innovations of agricultural systems rendering high labor productivity in terms of net profits, e.g., bush fallow agriculture

• Socio-economic-cultural-policy factors invoking an understanding • that millet millets are ‘coarse food’ and millet cultivation/consumption • an indictor of poverty • Increase in demand of cash crops with comparative advantages in the hills within the region as result increase in tourist influx as well as in adjoining plains as a result of decline in agricultural land use in the plains

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Shift in peak time of monsoon rainfall from July/August to August/September t

• Increase in frequency of crop damage due to high rainfall at the time of crop maturity • Increase in frequency of massive landslides and blocking of roads during August-September •

• Search for off-farm employment opportunities • People’s demands for compensation/insurance of life and property lost due to high monsoon rainfall events

• Socio-economic-cultural-factors invoking an understanding that off-farm means of livelihood were more secured/appropriate t than farm based means of livelihood

Shift in winter precipitation timing from December/January to January/February and decline in intensity of snow fall

• Shift in ploughing/sowing of winter crops (wheat, barley, naked barley and mustard) from November to December • • Decline in barley and wheat yields but insignificant changes in black pea (water requirement of black pea is substantially lower compared to wheat and barley)

• Replacement of traditional cultivars of wheat and mustard maturing over longer periods of time by high yielding varieties maturing over shorter periods of time • replacement of barley by cash crop green pea

• Increase in demand of cash crops with comparative advantages in the hills within the region as result increase in tourist influx as well as in adjoining plains as a result of decline in agricultural land use in the plains • Supply of staple food on subsidized price by the government • Emergence of new livelihood opportunities arising from globalization,

Increase in instances of cloud burst

• Increase in frequency of occurrence of large scale losses of human life and property due heavy downpour over a short period of time

• People’s demands for compensation/insurance of life and property lost due to high monsoon rainfall events

Warming • Performance of crops (pea, potato, cabbage and cauliflower) in high altitude regions where they were not successful before 20-30 years

• Replacement of traditional staple food crops by cash crops pea, potato, cabbage and cauliflower

• Increase in demand of cash crops with comparative advantages in the hills within the region as result increase in tourist influx as well as in adjoining plains as a result of decline in agricultural land use in the plains • Supply of staple food on subsidized price by the government Emergence of new livelihood opportunities arising from globalization,

Climate change ( all components of climate as understood by the farmers: temperature, precipitation, cloud

• Erratic fruit setting in summer legumes grown in 1,000- 2,000 masl zone • Diseases such as rust and blight are common in cereals and potato crops, and legumes such as Phaseolus spp become infected through soil- borne insects such as Coleoptera species • Early flowering,

• Reduction in area under traditional legume/pulse crops • Stress on off-farm income

• Emergence of new off-farm income opportunities

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cover, wind velocity)

leafing and fruiting (15-30 days before the timings observerd before 20-30 years) of medicinal and aromatic plants (i.e., Rhododendron arboretum, Prunus cerasoides, Allium stracheyi, A. humile, Betula utilis, Meconopsis aculeate, and Saussurea obvallata) and wild edible species (i.e., Rebis orientale, Rosa webbiana, and R. sericea) • Increase in abundance of Bauhinia vahlii twining around Pinus roxburghii trees deriving from decline in in fire frequency/ from shortening of hot-dry period.

3. Assumed and projected scenarios for the state of natural resources and socio-economic conditions of Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve for 2019-2029 period Based on the existing knowledge on environmental and socio-economic changes in and around Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve, the scenarios for the period till 2029 are given in Table 12. Table 12 . Land use-land cover changes, driving factors, ecological/socio-economic implications and projected scenarios as identified from participatory discussions Land use-land cover changes

Cause of the change Comments/explanations Assumed and projected scenarios till 2029

Agricultural land use dynamics – landscape perspective Abandonment of agricultural land use

1. Emergence of new opportunities of securing livelihood from non-farm sector 2. Collapse of traditional sharecropping systems due to lack their recognition/appreciation in formal policies 3. Lack of any incentive for optimal or penalty for suboptimal use of agricultural land in the policies

There are no instances of land abandonment due to decline in climate change, weed infestation, land degradation, depletion of soil fertility and drying up of water resources.

Area under abandoned agriculture is likely to increase in future

Conversion of forest/scrub land to agriculture

1. Opportunities of economic benefits from annual cash crops substantially higher than that from NTFPs 2. Limited capacities of institutions responsible for

There are no instances of clearing of forests for agriculture. These are some areas with a legal status of forest land but devoid of any tree cover that have been put to agricultural land use

There is no further scope of exapansion of agricultural land use.

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protection of government/community forest/scrub lands 3. Restrictions on income from commercial extraction of forest resources to local communities

Fragmentation of land holdings

1. Social change favoring preference for nuclear families 2. Lack of any policy incentive for avoiding land fragmentation

In some communities, such as Spitians, land fragmentation is avoided by a traditional system where all land property is inherited to the eldest son, with all other sons passing a bachelor life (Lamas)

Fragmentation of land holdings is likely to continue.

Changes in agrobiodivesity and agroecosystem management Replacement of traditional staple crops by cash crops potato, rajmah and pea

1. Socio-cultural forces favouring a change from subsistence to market economy 2. Availability of staple food grains at subsidized price from public distribution system 3. Lack of policies ensuring income to farmers from marketing of traditional mountain crops or economic incentives for conservation of traditional crop genetic diversity

The government fixes minimum support price for food grains like wheat and rice grown on a large scale in the alluvial plains and has established infrastructural facilities for promoting marketing of these crops. Such a government supported marketing system has not been developed in the hills. Some contracts for organically produced millets from developed countires like Japan in the last few years might rejuvenate traditional cropping systems.

Increased instances of damage of potato crop due to pests and diseases point to a possible decline in area under this crop.

Cultivation of new crops, e.g., cabbage around Narayankuti and cauliflower and potato around Khaljhuni (, pea and apple in Spiti valley)

Global warming New crops are confined to isolated localities as such endeavours are always tried first by entrepreneurs who are always few in numbers.

With realization of the risks associated with dependence on a few cash crops, farmers are likelyto diversify in future.

Cultivation of cash crops (tomato and beans) in irrigated lands

1. Degeneration of traditions restricting hiring labour for farming or collection of forest resources from outside the village 2. Outmigration of local people and immigration of Nepalese farmers with skills of vegetable cultivation making cheap labor available to indigenous farmers 3. Increase in demand of non-traditional food items with comparative advantages in the hills due to increase in influx of tourists 4. Lack of policies promoting consumption of traditional food by tourists

Inmigrant farmers use huge amounts of agrochemicals to maximize their profits and are not much concerned about soil/agroecosystem health as they get contracts of farming only for a 2-3 years.

Indigenous farmers are realizing the negative impacts of use of agrochemicals in huge quantities by the migrant farmers. Also, government has started providingincentives for organic farming since last few years. Agrochemical use in future is

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likely to reduce. Cultivation of medicinal species

5. Restrictions of collection from the wild specified in protected area management plans 6. Increasing demands for herbal medicines

Though local people have been able to innovate cultivation of several medicinal species, local capacity to earn income from this innovation is very limited and hence this land use has not taken off on a large scale.

With establishment of a National Medicinal Plant Board, a Medicinal Plant Research Institute in the vicinity of the Reserve, policy stress on organic farming and increasing demands for herbal medicine, this land use is likely to expand in future.

Cultivation of fodder crops (alfaalfa)

1. Abandonment of nomadic pastoralism/transhumanism by local communities 2. Requirement of a settled property for availing benefits from development aid provided by the government

Cultivation of fodder plants is confined to only a few farmers.

A trend of decline in livestock population suggests a low probability of such a change in and around the Reserve.

Increase in intensity and frequency of damage to amaranths caused by Hymenia rickervalis Erratic fruit setting in summer legumes grown in 1,000- 2,000 masl zone Early flowering, fruiting and maturity of winter crops, particularly wheat and mustard

Climate change and variability Changes in land use-land cover might also be responsible for more severe attack by Hymenia rickervalis, e.g., the population of this moth might have increased or of its predator declined because of changes in cropping patterns and crop management practices. Both people and scientists seem to identify climate change as a factor driving a process or phenomenon when they are unable to identify any other factor driving the concerned change. People did mention that instead of persistent long term change, deamage to crop by this insect could be a short-term phenomenon arsing from climatic variability.

Many farmers believe that they are presently faced to an unfavourable phase of climatic variability rather than a consistent long term climatechange trend. About 20% of these farmers were confident about indigenousinnovations that would overcome any food problemin future.

Increase in frequency and intensity of damage to potato caused by pests and pathogens

1. Climate change 2. Persistence of monocropping 3. Use of immature FYM

A trend of crop diversification is likely to overcome the losses due to damage to potato

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crop. Increase in multipurpose tree cover in farmlands

Tree planting in abandoned agricultural lands by absentee landlords

Absentee landlords do not have any risk of loosing their land rights and are able to get some monetary benefits by selling NTFPs with negligible labour input.

This change implies land use-land cover changes favouring carbon sequestration.

Reduction in apple tree cover

Climate change leading to reduction in apple productivity and increase in frequency and intensity of pest and pathogen attack on apple

Increase in pest/pathogen attack could also be related to an imbalance in prey-predator/parasitoid populations due to land use-land cover changes

A trend of fruit tree diversification or replacement of fruit trees by multipurpose trees is likely to overcome the losses due to damage to apples.

Increase in loss of crop yields due to depredation by birds, monkeys, boar and wolf

1. Increase in wildlife population as a result of legal protection of the area (restoration of habitats) and penalties for killing of wildlife 2. Changed agricultural land uses attract wildlife more than the traditional land uses 3. Degeneration of traditional ways and means of keeping the wildlife away from the main settlements – use of fire, maintaining objects that scare wildlife

Climate change could be also be a reason for increased crop depredation but was not stated by the people.

It is very uncertain to makeany predictions about this aspect.

Conversion of irrigated to rainfed farming

1. Inefficiency of water delivery due to poor management of irrigation system 2. Labour scarcity as a result of outmigration of males

Reduced flow in the streams as a result of warming or reduction in precipitation was not identified as a cause of conversion of irrigated to rainfed farming.

Not likely within the Reserve.

Conversion of rainfed to irrigated farming

1. Availability of government aid for establishment of small scale irrigation systems 2. Potential economic benefits from cash crops grown at lower elevations

Availability of irrigation water around settlements as a result of higher rates of melting of glaciers was not stated as a reason for establishing irrigation system by the people.

Not likely within the Reserve as low temperature and not water stress is the most limiting factor.

Use of vermicomposts

1. Government grants available for establishing vermicompost technologies 2. Profits to farmers ensured from procurement by government agencies of vermicompost from farmers 3. Increasing demand for organic food/policies

Use of vermicompost is likely to expand with increase in demnds for organic food and lower degree of crop losses due topests/pathogens.

Use of beneficial microbes/biofertilizers

1. Policies providing subsidy for biofertilizers 2. Increasing demand for

Use of biofertilizers is likely to expand

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organic food/policies encouraging organic farming

with increase in demnds for organic food and lower degree of crop losses due topests/pathogens

Use of chemical fertilizers

Financial incentives by IFFCO (Indian Farmers Fertilizer Cooperative Limited): establishment of model villages

Only a few farmers, usually the rich ones, use chemical fertilizers and other modern inputs provided free of cost by IFFCO for a maximum period of 5 years. After withdrawl of aid/subsidy, local farmers rarely apply chemical fertilizers.

Unlikely within the reserve

Outmigration of many native families

New opportunities of secondary and tertiary sector based livelihoods in urban centres

Generally only some members of a family, usually the young ones, take employment in far off areas. Migration of the whole family on a permanent basis is a rare phenomenon.

With a stable biosphere reserve management plan, the present population level is likely to be stabilized.

Inmigration of many non-native families

1. Emergence of occupations disliked by local people, e.g., sanitary work in urban areas 2. Lack of local capacity to supply resources/services required by tourists

With a stable biosphere reserve management plan, the present population level is likely to be stabilized.

Forests Upward movement of species/communities/ecosystems

Climate change/warming Only a few individuals (8% of interviewed people) in higher elevations identified this change.

Increase in tree cover in both agricultural land and degraded/depleted forest land

Reduction in pressure on forests due to decrease in livestock population and abandonement of agricultural land use

If warming occurs in future, tree cover is likely to increase further.

4. Conclusions: Climate change mitigation and adaptation strategic actions: focusing on positidimensions indigenous knowledge In the absence of any meteorological stations (i.e., long term climate data base), long terms soil fertility experiments on crops and long term ecological/environmental monitoring stations within or in the vicinity of Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve, all predictions or assessments about global environmental changes and their socio-economic implications suffer from several deficiencies and hence need to be taken with caution (Saxena and Purohit, 1993). Our own experiences and researches being carried out in the region since last twenty years suggest a stability in land use-land cover and lack of any adverse impacts of global environmental change such as biological invasion, forest/land degradation, loss of forest ecosystem goods and services, food insecurity, higher rates of infant mortality, increase in frequency of human or livestock diseases or shortening of human life span. However, likely adverse changes in future cannot be ruled out and hence some proactive actions are required.

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As a rich biodiversity base would provide a greater variety of adaptations to changing climatic conditions, effective ways and means of biodiversity conservation are urgently needed. 4.1. Protected area management Protected areas will be able to achieve their stipulated goal only when conservation actions are coupled with socio-development of local communities. A number of recent studies do not support the assumption of protected area planners that traditional resource systems (e.g., tourism, low input crop/livestock husbandry) agriculture were not ‘efficient’ (Maikhuri et al., 2000; Rao et al., 2000, 2002, 2003; Semwal et al., 2004; Chandrasekhara et., 2007; Singh et al., 2008). Larger soil organic carbons stocks and biodiversity in traditional homegardens (Singh et al., 2008) do not support the common view of considering forest land use more efficient than farming in terms of carbon sequestration. Rarity of many economic species is often attributed to over-exploitation, though it may also be related to climate change. Traditional resource uses need to be scientifically evaluated and conservation strategy be built on the indigenous knowledge completed/supplemented by scientific knowledge and institutional support. 4.2. Conservation of traditional crop diversity A realization of negative consequences of high yielding varieties, viz., dependency on external agencies for seeds, fertilizers, irrigation and pesticides, drastic yield losses under unfavourable climatic conditions and low input management and lower fodder production compared to traditional varieties, in recent years has rejuvenated local efforts towards agrobiodiversity conservation in Hanval valley of Tihri Garhwal. Such efforts must be followed with scientific analysis of crop/cultivar-environment relationships. 4.3. Water management Global warming will aggravate water stress, a factor often limiting crop yields and life quality. The traditional systems centered on minimum inputs for water purification, storage and canalization, minimal interference with natural hydrological processes, and minimal risks of damages likely from high rainfall events were, by and large, were following treatment of water supply as a government service to the people. With experiences of the large scale failure of the new water system over the last few decades (Rao and Saxena, 1994), innovations in water technology and management systems that can be sustained in the likely global warming scenarios are needed. 4.4. Improvement in traditional agroforestry tree management Traditional farmers usually lop all branches of farm trees during winters when fodder/ fuelwood are scarce in forests. Retention of 25% of branches together with an increase in try tree density in farmland will enhance carbon sequestration in farm lands without any decline in crop yields (Semwal et al., 2002). 4.5. Improvement in traditional soil fertility management As agriculture is dependent on forests for manure and fodder, reduction in intensity of biomass removal from forests without any threat to agroecosystem functions is crucial for forest conservation. Application of oak residue based manure enables crop yields 15% higher compared to pine residue based manure partly because of higher rates of nitrogen mineralization coupled with better synchronization of nutrient release and crop uptake in the former (Rao et al., 2003). Further research on aboveground-belowground biodiversity interlinkages is needed for sustainable soil fertility/health management.

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4.6. Rehabilitation of abandoned agricultural lands and degradaed forest lands Coupling of local concerns with global concerns is crucial for success of any ecorestoration programme. Introduction of ‘nurse species’ or ‘keystone species’ would be the most desired treatment in abandoned agricultural but knowledge of such species is meager. Yet, there is a scope of developing rehabilitation strategies built on indigenous knowledge supplemented/complemented with the scientific knowledge (Maikhuri et al., 1997, 2000 ; Rao et al., 1999, 2003). Though forests of the reserve in terms of canopy cover are not degraded, their ecosystem functions could be substantially enhanced with intrododuction of appropriate species. 4.7. Establishment of a network of participatory long term ecological research sites On line of long-term fertilizer/crop trials, long term ecological research sites need to be established to monitor the environmental changes and their impacts and to development sustainable adaptation/mitigation measures. This network of people, scientists and conservation mangers of the country should be linked UNESCO’s global network of GLOCHAMORE/GLOCHAMOST partners. Acknowledgements Some data and observations presented here are drawn from the work carried out in projects supported by the Winrock International, Delhi and TSBF Institute of CIAT, Nairobi. References Brazel, A.J. and Marcus, M.G. 1991. July temperatures in mountainous Kashmir and Ladakh, India. Mountain Research and Development, 9, 201-209. Bhatnagar, P.R., Srivastava, R.C., and Bhatnagar, V.K.1996. Management of runoff in small tanks for transplanted rice production in the mid-hills of northwest Himalaya. Agrciulture and Water Management, 30, 107-118. Carter, S.E., Murwira, H.K., 1995. Spatial variability in soil fertility management and crop response in Mutoko communal area, Zimbabwe. Ambio 24, 77-84. Chandrasekhar, K., Rao, K.S., Maikhuri, R.K., and Saxena, K.G. 2007. Ecological implications of traditional livestock husbandry and associated land-use practices: A case study from the trans-Himalaya, India. Journal of Arid Environments, 69, 299-314. Hingane, L.S., Kolli, R.K., Ramana Murthy, B.V., 1985. Long term trends of surface air temperature in India. International Journal of Climatology 5, 521-528. IPCC, 2001b. Climate Change 2001: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Kandari, L.S., Rao, K.S., Chauhan, K., Maikhuri, R.K., Purohit, V.K., Phondani, P.C. and Saxena, K.G. 2007. Effect of presowing treatments on the seed germination of two endangered medicinal herbs of the Himalaya (Angelica glauca Edgew. and Pleurospermum angelicoides (Wall. Ex D C.) Benth. Ex C.B. Clarke). Proceedings of Indian National Science Academy, 73 (1), 11-16. Kavi Kumar, K. S. and Parikh, J. 2001. Indian agriculture and climate sensitivity. Global Environmental Change 11, 147-154. Maikhuri, R. K., Rao, K. S., Saxena, K. G., 1996. Traditional crop diversity for sustainable development of Central Himalayan agroecosystems. International Journal of Sustainable Development and World Ecology, 3, 8-31.

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